FN Thomson Reuters Web of Science™ VR 1.0 PT J AU FACKLER, JS ROGERS, JH AF FACKLER, JS ROGERS, JH TI OUTPUT, INFLATION AND STABILIZATION - A COUNTERFACTUAL ANALYSIS SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE LA English DT Article AB We estimate a small open-economy macro model in which movements in inflation and output are driven by fiscal, real, monetary, exchange rate, and asset disturbances. We use 1980's data from Bolivia and Brazil, each of which undertook stabilization programs, though only Bolivia's succeeded. An important part of our analysis is 'counterfactual', where hypothetical paths of output and inflation under alternative policymaking scenarios are investigated. For Bolivia, there is clear evidence that deficits affect inflation largely through their effects on money growth, and do not have much influence on output. External shocks are important for Brazilian inflation. C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. PENN STATE UNIV,DIV INT FINANCE,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP FACKLER, JS (reprint author), UNIV KENTUCKY,DEPT ECON,LEXINGTON,KY 40506, USA. NR 12 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 0 PU BUTTERWORTH-HEINEMANN LTD PI OXFORD PA LINACRE HOUSE JORDAN HILL, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX2 8DP SN 0261-5606 J9 J INT MONEY FINANC JI J. Int. Money Finan. PD OCT PY 1995 VL 14 IS 5 BP 619 EP 640 DI 10.1016/0261-5606(95)00025-A PG 22 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA TC060 UT WOS:A1995TC06000001 ER PT J AU OSLER, CL AF OSLER, CL TI EXCHANGE-RATE DYNAMICS AND SPECULATOR HORIZONS SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE LA English DT Article ID FINANCIAL-MARKETS; DOLLAR AB This paper shows that exchange rate dynamics and speculators' horizons are determined simultaneously. A speculator's horizon choice depends on exchange rate dynamics, since these determine the risks and returns associated with speculative activity. These risks and returns, in turn, are affected by speculators' horizons. For example, a shift of speculators from short to long horizons reduces exchange rate variability at the longer horizon relative to its variability at the shorter horizon. The paper finds that the equilibrium share of short-term speculators depends on a number of factors, including market liquidity and the generating processes of the underlying shocks. The paper also shows that these may be no a priori reason for society to prefer that speculators operate at any particular horizon. RP OSLER, CL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 32 TC 8 Z9 8 U1 0 U2 0 PU BUTTERWORTH-HEINEMANN LTD PI OXFORD PA LINACRE HOUSE JORDAN HILL, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX2 8DP SN 0261-5606 J9 J INT MONEY FINANC JI J. Int. Money Finan. PD OCT PY 1995 VL 14 IS 5 BP 695 EP 719 DI 10.1016/0261-5606(95)00029-E PG 25 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA TC060 UT WOS:A1995TC06000006 ER PT J AU HOLMES, TJ SCHMITZ, JA AF HOLMES, TJ SCHMITZ, JA TI ON THE TURNOVER OF BUSINESS FIRMS AND BUSINESS MANAGERS SO JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Article AB This paper develops a model of small business failure and sale that is motivated by recent evidence concerning how the failure and sale of small businesses vary with the age of the business and the tenure of the manager. This evidence motivates two key features of the model: a match between the manager and the business, and characteristics of businesses that survive beyond the current match. The parameters of the model are estimated, and the properties of this parametric model are studied. This analysis results in a simple characterization of the workings of the small business sector. RP HOLMES, TJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55401, USA. NR 13 TC 42 Z9 42 U1 12 U2 17 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0022-3808 J9 J POLIT ECON JI J. Polit. Econ. PD OCT PY 1995 VL 103 IS 5 BP 1005 EP 1038 DI 10.1086/262011 PG 34 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TA969 UT WOS:A1995TA96900004 ER PT J AU HESS, GD ORPHANIDES, A AF HESS, GD ORPHANIDES, A TI WAR POLITICS - AN ECONOMIC, RATIONAL-VOTER FRAMEWORK SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID POSITIVE THEORY; PUBLIC-OPINION; UNITED-STATES; MODEL; FORCE; GOVERNMENT; EQUILIBRIUM; PRESIDENT; POLICY AB The frequency of foreign conflict initiations in the United States is found to be significantly greater following the onset of recessions during a president's first term than in other periods. We develop an economic theory of the political use of wars which links the election cycle, war decisions, and economic performance consistent with the observed relationships among these events. An incumbent leader with an unfavorable economic performance record may initiate a war to force the learning of his war leadership abilities and thus salvage, with some probability, his reelection. This obtains despite voter rationality and informational symmetry. C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV MONETARY AFFAIRS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP HESS, GD (reprint author), UNIV KANSAS,DEPT ECON,LAWRENCE,KS 66045, USA. NR 39 TC 117 Z9 117 U1 0 U2 7 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD SEP PY 1995 VL 85 IS 4 BP 828 EP 846 PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TF603 UT WOS:A1995TF60300009 ER PT J AU HALIASSOS, M BERTAUT, CC AF HALIASSOS, M BERTAUT, CC TI WHY DO SO FEW HOLD STOCKS SO ECONOMIC JOURNAL LA English DT Article ID LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS; EQUITY PREMIUM; ASSET RETURNS; RISK-AVERSION; CONSUMPTION; PUZZLE AB We investigate why 75% of United States households do not hold stocks despite the equity premium and predictions of expected-utility models. The question is relevant for privatisation, asset pricing, and tax progressivity issues. We show that risk aversion Pcr se, heterogeneity of beliefs, habit persistence, time non-separability, and quantity constraints on borrowing do not account for the phenomenon. A wedge between borrowing and lending rates, and minimum-investment requirements are plausible but empirically weak factors. More promising explanations are inertia and departures from expected-utility maximisation. There is also qualified support for nondiversifiable income risk as a contributing factor. C1 FED RESERVE SYST, BOARD GOVERNORS, WASHINGTON, DC 20551 USA. RP HALIASSOS, M (reprint author), UNIV CYPRUS, NICOSIA, CYPRUS. NR 31 TC 168 Z9 168 U1 4 U2 16 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI HOBOKEN PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA SN 0013-0133 EI 1468-0297 J9 ECON J JI Econ. J. PD SEP PY 1995 VL 105 IS 432 BP 1110 EP 1129 DI 10.2307/2235407 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RU778 UT WOS:A1995RU77800002 ER PT J AU MISHKIN, FS SIMON, J AF MISHKIN, FS SIMON, J TI AN EMPIRICAL-EXAMINATION OF THE FISHER EFFECT IN AUSTRALIA SO ECONOMIC RECORD LA English DT Article ID REAL INTEREST-RATES; AUTOREGRESSIVE TIME-SERIES; TERM INTEREST-RATES; UNIT-ROOT; INFLATION; ESTIMATORS; MODELS; TESTS AB This paper analyzes the Fisher effect in Australia. Initial testing indicates that both interest rates and inflation contain unit roots. Furthermore, there are indications that the variables have non-standard error processes. To overcome problems associated with this and derive the correct small sample distributions of test statistics we make use of Monte Carlo simulations. These tests indicate that while a long-run Fisher effect seems to exist, there is no evidence of a short-run Fisher effect. This suggests that, while short-run changes in interest rates reflect changes in monetary policy, longer run levels indicate inflationary expectations. Thus, the longer run level of interest rates should not be used to characterize the stance of monetary policy. C1 COLUMBIA UNIV, GRAD SCH BUSINESS, NEW YORK, NY 10027 USA. NATL BUR ECON RES, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02138 USA. RESERVE BANK AUSTRALIA, SYDNEY, NSW 2000, AUSTRALIA. RP MISHKIN, FS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK, 33 LIBERTY ST, NEW YORK, NY 10045 USA. NR 30 TC 12 Z9 12 U1 1 U2 2 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI HOBOKEN PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA SN 0013-0249 EI 1475-4932 J9 ECON REC JI Econ. Rec. PD SEP PY 1995 VL 71 IS 214 BP 217 EP 229 DI 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1995.tb01889.x PG 13 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TG466 UT WOS:A1995TG46600001 ER PT J AU Marquez, J AF Marquez, J TI Time series analysis - Hamilton,JD SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING LA English DT Book Review RP Marquez, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC, USA. NR 2 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0169-2070 J9 INT J FORECASTING JI Int. J. Forecast. PD SEP PY 1995 VL 11 IS 3 BP 494 EP 495 DI 10.1016/0169-2070(95)90035-7 PG 2 WC Economics; Management SC Business & Economics GA TL632 UT WOS:A1995TL63200012 ER PT J AU COLE, RA GUNTHER, JW AF COLE, RA GUNTHER, JW TI SEPARATING THE LIKELIHOOD AND TIMING OF BANK FAILURE SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE SURVIVAL TIME; BANK FAILURE; SPLIT POPULATION AB We use a split-population survival-time model to separate the determinants of bank failure from the factors influencing the survival time of failing banks. Basic indicators of a bank's condition, such as capital, troubled assets, and net income, are important in explaining the timing of bank failure. However, many of the other variables typically included in bank failure models, such as measures of bank liquidity, are not associated with the time to failure. The results also suggest that the closure of large banks is not delayed relative to the closure of small banks. C1 FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,DALLAS,TX 75201. RI Cole, Rebel/C-4399-2008 OI Cole, Rebel/0000-0001-9830-662X NR 18 TC 75 Z9 77 U1 3 U2 10 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD SEP PY 1995 VL 19 IS 6 BP 1073 EP 1089 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(95)98952-M PG 17 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA RX839 UT WOS:A1995RX83900007 ER PT J AU ERICSSON, NR AF ERICSSON, NR TI CONDITIONAL AND STRUCTURAL ERROR-CORRECTION MODELS SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Bayesian and Classical Econometric Modeling of Time Series CY JUN 19-20, 1992 CL MARSEILLE, FRANCE SP ADRES, CNRS, Conseil Gen Bouches Rhone, EHESS, Univ Aix Marseille II, Fac Sci, Ville Marseille DE COINTEGRATION; CONDITIONAL MODELS; ERROR CORRECTION; EXOGENEITY; STRUCTURAL MODELS ID COINTEGRATION VECTORS; SYSTEMS; EXOGENEITY; INFERENCE; DEMAND; ORDER; MONEY AB A 'structural' error correction model (in Boswijk's sense) is a representation of a conditional error correction model that satisfies certain restrictions. This paper examines the conditions under which such a structural error correction model exists and when the associated representation is of interest, To clarify the nature of such models, several analytical and empirical examples are considered, which violate those conditions. Structural error correction models are economically appealing, but their limitations imply that some care must be taken when applying them in practice. RP ERICSSON, NR (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,DIV INT FINANCE,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 26 TC 16 Z9 16 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0304-4076 J9 J ECONOMETRICS JI J. Econom. PD SEP PY 1995 VL 69 IS 1 BP 159 EP 171 DI 10.1016/0304-4076(94)01666-N PG 13 WC Economics; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA RR925 UT WOS:A1995RR92500008 ER PT J AU SULLIVAN, RJ AF SULLIVAN, RJ TI PATENT COUNTS AND TEXTILE INVENTION - A COMMENT ON GRIFFITHS, HUNT, AND OBRIEN SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY LA English DT Note ID ENGLISH RP SULLIVAN, RJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK KANSAS CITY,DIV BANK SUPERVIS & STRUCT,925 GRAND BLVD,KANSAS CITY,MO 64198, USA. NR 14 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 1 PU CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS PI NEW YORK PA 40 WEST 20TH STREET, NEW YORK, NY 10011-4211 SN 0022-0507 J9 J ECON HIST JI J. Econ. Hist. PD SEP PY 1995 VL 55 IS 3 BP 666 EP 670 PG 5 WC Economics; History; History Of Social Sciences SC Business & Economics; History; Social Sciences - Other Topics GA RV918 UT WOS:A1995RV91800010 ER PT J AU MISHKIN, FS AF MISHKIN, FS TI SYMPOSIUM ON THE MONETARY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Editorial Material C1 NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. RP MISHKIN, FS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 6 TC 88 Z9 93 U1 4 U2 16 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0895-3309 J9 J ECON PERSPECT JI J. Econ. Perspect. PD FAL PY 1995 VL 9 IS 4 BP 3 EP 10 PG 8 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TJ237 UT WOS:A1995TJ23700001 ER PT J AU KEANE, MP AF KEANE, MP TI DECOMPOSING WAGE VARIATION - REPLY SO JOURNAL OF HUMAN RESOURCES LA English DT Note C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. RP KEANE, MP (reprint author), UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455, USA. RI Keane, Michael/O-2840-2013 OI Keane, Michael/0000-0002-3918-1377 NR 2 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 2 PU UNIV WISCONSIN PRESS PI MADISON PA JOURNAL DIVISION, 114 N MURRAY ST, MADISON, WI 53715 SN 0022-166X J9 J HUM RESOUR JI J. Hum. Resour. PD FAL PY 1995 VL 30 IS 4 BP 861 EP 863 DI 10.2307/146236 PG 3 WC Economics; Industrial Relations & Labor SC Business & Economics GA TG451 UT WOS:A1995TG45100012 ER PT J AU RHEE, W RICH, RW AF RHEE, W RICH, RW TI INFLATION AND THE ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS OF MONEY ON OUTPUT FLUCTUATIONS SO JOURNAL OF MACROECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID MONETARY-POLICY MATTER AB This paper examines postwar U.S. data and tests the implications of Ball and Mankiw's (1994) model of asymmetric price adjustment that monetary shocks have asymmetric effects on output and that the degree of asymmetry is positively related to movements in average inflation. The empirical analysis extends Cover's (1992) framework to allow the degree of assymetry to depend on an expected inflation series generated from Hamilton's (1989) Markov snitching model. The results indicate that monetary shocks display asymmetric effects which are exacerbated by increases in average inflation and that negative monetary shocks have a larger absolute impact on output. C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK, NEW YORK, NY 10045 USA. RP RHEE, W (reprint author), KYUNG HEE UNIV, SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA. NR 14 TC 35 Z9 36 U1 0 U2 3 PU LOUISIANA STATE UNIV PR PI BATON ROUGE PA BATON ROUGE, LA 70893 SN 0164-0704 J9 J MACROECON JI J. Macroecon. PD FAL PY 1995 VL 17 IS 4 BP 683 EP 702 DI 10.1016/0164-0704(95)80089-1 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RZ716 UT WOS:A1995RZ71600007 ER PT J AU JOHN, A PECCHENINO, R SCHIMMELPFENNIG, D SCHREFT, S AF JOHN, A PECCHENINO, R SCHIMMELPFENNIG, D SCHREFT, S TI SHORT-LIVED AGENTS AND THE LONG-LIVED ENVIRONMENT SO JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE ENVIRONMENTAL EXTERNALITIES; OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS; CAPITAL ACCUMULATION ID ECONOMICS; RESOURCES AB Actions that affect environmental quality both influence and respond to macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, many environmental and macroeconomic consequences of current actions will have uncompensated effects that outlive the actors. This paper presents an overlapping-generations model of environmental externalities and capital accumulation. Policies pursued by short-lived governments that affect capital accumulation and environmental quality, although myopically optimal, fail to internalize the long-lived external effects of their constituents' actions. Consequently, tax policies must be set by a long-lived government agency whose planning horizon is the environment's, not the individual agent's, lifetime. C1 MICHIGAN STATE UNIV,DEPT ECON,E LANSING,MI 48824. USDA,WASHINGTON,DC 20005. FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND,RICHMOND,VA 23219. RP JOHN, A (reprint author), UNIV VIRGINIA,DEPT ECON,CHARLOTTESVILLE,VA 22903, USA. RI John, Andrew/F-8407-2016 OI John, Andrew/0000-0002-6811-3525 NR 23 TC 73 Z9 76 U1 0 U2 8 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0047-2727 J9 J PUBLIC ECON JI J. Public Econ. PD SEP PY 1995 VL 58 IS 1 BP 127 EP 141 DI 10.1016/0047-2727(94)01459-2 PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RU559 UT WOS:A1995RU55900007 ER PT J AU SINAI, J AF SINAI, J TI UNITED-NATIONS AND NONUNITED NATIONS PEACE-KEEPING IN THE ARAB-ISRAELI SECTOR - 5 SCENARIOS SO MIDDLE EAST JOURNAL LA English DT Article AB Several types of United Nations' (UN) and non-UN peace-keeping operations (PKOs) are likely to play a significant role in the Arab-Israeli sector, with the probable resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict in the next few years. In order to ascertain the nature of these future PKOs, this paper- assesses the prospects for five alternative scenarios. It concludes that these PKOs ale not likely to be homogeneous in nature, with three types of PKOs apt to play such a role: UN-commanded PKOs, non-UN, US-led multinational PKOs, and joint Arab-Israeli security arrangements. RP SINAI, J (reprint author), LIB CONGRESS,FED RES DIV,INT & SECUR STUDIES,WASHINGTON,DC 20540, USA. NR 29 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 1 U2 1 PU MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE PI WASHINGTON PA 1761 N STREET NW, CIRCULATION DEPT, WASHINGTON, DC 20036-2882 SN 0026-3141 J9 MIDDLE EAST J JI Middle East J. PD FAL PY 1995 VL 49 IS 4 BP 629 EP 644 PG 16 WC Area Studies SC Area Studies GA TJ378 UT WOS:A1995TJ37800007 ER PT J AU MARIGER, RP AF MARIGER, RP TI TAXES, CAPITAL GAINS REALIZATIONS, AND REVENUES - A CRITICAL-REVIEW AND SOME NEW RESULTS SO NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL LA English DT Article ID CORPORATE-STOCK; UNITED-STATES; TAXATION RP MARIGER, RP (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 19 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 3 PU NATL TAX ASSN PI COLUMBUS PA 5310 EAST MAIN ST, COLUMBUS, OH 43213 SN 0028-0283 J9 NATL TAX J JI Natl. Tax J. PD SEP PY 1995 VL 48 IS 3 BP 447 EP 462 PG 16 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA RZ705 UT WOS:A1995RZ70500013 ER PT J AU MINEHAN, CE SIMONS, K LIGHT, J CAMUZZI, G WARNER, BH MITTELMAN, DR MALONE, JD TUFANO, P DEMCHAK, W MAHABIR, K POZEN, RC BULLEN, H MOST, N SCOTT, HS MARKEY, EJ PHILLIPS, SM CORRIGAN, EG PATRIKIS, ET MINEHAN, CE AF MINEHAN, CE SIMONS, K LIGHT, J CAMUZZI, G WARNER, BH MITTELMAN, DR MALONE, JD TUFANO, P DEMCHAK, W MAHABIR, K POZEN, RC BULLEN, H MOST, N SCOTT, HS MARKEY, EJ PHILLIPS, SM CORRIGAN, EG PATRIKIS, ET MINEHAN, CE TI MANAGING RISK IN THE 90S - WHAT SHOULD YOU BE ASKING ABOUT DERIVATIVES SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Derivatives are the fastest-growing financial instruments of our time. When used strategically, they can be very effective tools to mitigate risks. When used to speculate, that is, to bet on the inefficiency of financial markets, they can be trouble, especially if you are unaware that you are betting. On April 28, 1995 the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston held an educational forum entitled ''Managing Risk in the '90s: What Should You Be Asking about Derivatives?'' The daylong forum, presented by experts from nonfinancial corporations, investment and commercial banks, pension funds, issuers of securities, academics, lawmakers, and government regulators, discussed important issues in the management of risk. The speakers outlined a conceptual framework for analysis of derivatives and suggested risk management guidelines for successful use of derivatives. This article is based on the presentations and discussions at that form. C1 HARVARD UNIV,SCH BUSINESS,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. GILLETTE CO,BOSTON,MA 02199. HARVARD MANAGEMENT CO INC,BOSTON,MA 02210. COMMONWEALTH MASSACHUSETTS,BOSTON,MA. FIDEL INVESTMENTS,BOSTON,MA. AMER STOCK EXCHANGE,NEW PROD PLANNING,NEW YORK,NY 10006. HARVARD UNIV,SCH LAW,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. US HOUSE REPRESENTATIVES,WASHINGTON,DC 20515. FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045. RP MINEHAN, CE (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 0 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 1 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD SEP-OCT PY 1995 BP 3 EP & PG 0 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TF040 UT WOS:A1995TF04000001 ER PT J AU ROSENGREN, ES MEEHAN, JW AF ROSENGREN, ES MEEHAN, JW TI ANTITRUST POLICY AND VERTICAL MERGERS SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID FORECLOSURE; COSTS AB Recently, federal regulators responsible for enforcing the antitrust laws have shown a renewed interest in the potential anticompetitive effects of vertical mergers-mergers between two independent firms in successive stages of production. This greater activism in vertical merger cases is in striking contrast to the permissive policies that prevailed throughout the 1980s, which, in turn, were a response to the Justice Department's and the Federal Trade Commission's open hostility to vertical mergers during the 1960s and 1970s. The cyclical antitrust treatment of vertical mergers over the past three and one-half decades has been strongly influenced by the theoretical research of academic economists and lawyers. This article examines the empirical evidence of anticompetitive foreclosure in vertical mergers challenged by the Justice Department and the Federal Trade Commission during the period from 1963 to 1982. The authors find no evidence of anticompetitive market foreclosure for the sample of vertical merger cases challenged by the antitrust agencies during this period. They suggest that a more permissive policy towards vertical mergers be maintained until the theory can spell out more clearly the circumstances when vertical mergers result in anticompetitive foreclosure. C1 COLBY COLL,WATERVILLE,ME 04901. RP ROSENGREN, ES (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 20 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD SEP-OCT PY 1995 BP 27 EP & PG 0 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TF040 UT WOS:A1995TF04000002 ER PT J AU FUHRER, JC AF FUHRER, JC TI MONETARY-POLICY AND THE BEHAVIOR OF LONG-TERM REAL INTEREST-RATES SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB A time-honored description of the ''monetary transmission channel'' suggests that the Fed controls the federal funds rate, which affects the rates on longer-term credit market instruments, which affect the expected real (inflation-adjusted) rates on longer-term instruments, which affect real spending on interest-sensitive goods, which affects unemployment and inflation. And yet one key Link in the chain, the expected real long-term interest rate, is not observable. This article explores the Link between the behavior of monetary policy and inferences about the behavior of the expected long-term real rate of interest. Analysis of this Link reveals a sound empirical basis for the standard transmission channel. It also provides an explanation of the Bernanke-Blinder observation that short-term nominal rates are highly correlated with real output, an explanation that is fully consistent with the standard transmission channel. RP FUHRER, JC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. RI Fuhrer, Jeff/F-8852-2013 NR 3 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD SEP-OCT PY 1995 BP 39 EP & PG 0 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TF040 UT WOS:A1995TF04000003 ER PT J AU BROWNE, LE TOOTELL, GMB AF BROWNE, LE TOOTELL, GMB TI MORTGAGE LENDING IN BOSTON - A RESPONSE TO THE CRITICS SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Three years ago, the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston released an examination of racial patterns in mortgage denial rates in the Boston area. The study was motivated by newly available data on mortgage applicants, showing that black and Hispanic applicants were two to three times as likely to be turned down for mortgages as white applicants. The study gathered all the variables thought to be missing from the HMDA analysis, such as the applicants' debt burdens and credit histories, to see whether these economic factors explained the racial difference in denial rates. Although the additional information did explain much of the difference, after taking account of economic factors the applicant's race still significantly affected the probability of getting a mortgage. The study has been influential and has caused many institutions to review their lending practices and supervisory agencies to alter their examination procedures. The study has also drawn criticism, with critics claiming that variables have been omitted, the model misspecified, errors made in the data, and information about racial differences in foreclosures ignored. This article provides a detailed rebuttal to these criticisms and shows that even after incorporating the concerns of some of the study's strongest critics, applicants' race as well as economic characteristics affected the probability of getting a mortgage in 1990. RP BROWNE, LE (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 22 TC 29 Z9 29 U1 1 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD SEP-OCT PY 1995 BP 53 EP & PG 0 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TF040 UT WOS:A1995TF04000004 ER PT J AU GILBERT, RA KLIESEN, KL AF GILBERT, RA KLIESEN, KL TI DEREGULATION OR REREGULATION OF AGRICULTURAL BANKS SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT ASSA Winter Meeting CY JAN 06-08, 1995 CL WASHINGTON, DC SP ASSA RP GILBERT, RA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ST LOUIS,ST LOUIS,MO, USA. RI Kliesen, Kevin/I-5746-2016 OI Kliesen, Kevin/0000-0002-7166-6016 NR 7 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 2 PU AMER AGR ECON ASSN PI AMES PA IOWA STATE UNIV 80 HEADY HALL, AMES, IA 50011-1070 SN 0002-9092 J9 AM J AGR ECON JI Am. J. Agr. Econ. PD AUG PY 1995 VL 77 IS 3 BP 757 EP 761 DI 10.2307/1243247 PG 5 WC Agricultural Economics & Policy; Economics SC Agriculture; Business & Economics GA RQ226 UT WOS:A1995RQ22600033 ER PT J AU MESTER, LJ SAUNDERS, A AF MESTER, LJ SAUNDERS, A TI WHEN DOES THE PRIME RATE CHANGE SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE PRIME RATE; BANKS; LOAN MARKETS ID PRICES; MODEL; RIGIDITY; MARKET; MONEY AB We study the frequency of prime rate changes. We model the prime rate as a time-series variable that can be changed only at some cost. This yields a legit model in which the probability of a prime rate change is a function of market variables. We test this model using data from a micro data set that gives the dating of prime rate changes. The results indicate that adjustment costs are important to the prime rate adjustment process, and that changes in exogenous variables have a significantly larger effect on the probability of a prime rate increase than decrease. C1 NYU,STERN SCH BUSINESS,NEW YORK,NY 10012. RP MESTER, LJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,RES DEPT,10 INDEPENDENCE MALL,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 24 TC 24 Z9 25 U1 2 U2 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD AUG PY 1995 VL 19 IS 5 BP 743 EP 764 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(94)00090-P PG 22 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA RW729 UT WOS:A1995RW72900001 ER PT J AU CRAIG, B AF CRAIG, B TI PROFIT-SHARING - DOES IT MAKE A DIFFERENCE - KRUSE,D SO JOURNAL OF COMPARATIVE ECONOMICS LA English DT Book Review RP CRAIG, B (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44101, USA. NR 4 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525B STREET, SUITE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0147-5967 J9 J COMP ECON JI J. Comp. Econ. PD AUG PY 1995 VL 21 IS 1 BP 120 EP 123 DI 10.1006/jcec.1995.1031 PG 4 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RQ606 UT WOS:A1995RQ60600007 ER PT J AU DOW, JP AF DOW, JP TI THE DEMAND AND LIQUIDITY EFFECTS OF MONETARY SHOCKS SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE BUSINESS CYCLES; MONETARY SHOCKS ID RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS; MACROECONOMIC MODEL; BUSINESS CYCLES; FLUCTUATIONS; MONEY AB This paper examines the effect of a monetary shock in a stochastic growth model with a cash-in-advance constraint and a financial intermediary. It explores the differences between the results of restrictions on nominal price adjustment (the demand effect) and restrictions on savings behavior (the liquidity effect). It is found that the model that produces the appropriate response to a temporary monetary shock includes both demand and liquidity effects. RP DOW, JP (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 17 TC 16 Z9 16 U1 0 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD AUG PY 1995 VL 36 IS 1 BP 91 EP 115 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(95)01205-0 PG 25 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TK068 UT WOS:A1995TK06800004 ER PT J AU LANG, WW NAKAMURA, LI AF LANG, WW NAKAMURA, LI TI FLIGHT TO QUALITY IN BANKING AND ECONOMIC-ACTIVITY SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE BUSINESS FLUCTUATIONS; INVESTMENT; CREDIT ID CREDIT AB Recent explanations of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy have emphasized that riskier, lower net worth borrowers are more dependent on bank lending than larger, less risky borrowers. Evidence from the Federal Reserve's Survey on Terms of Bank Lending indicates that the proportion of relatively high quality new loans (%Safe) moves countercyclically and Granger causes GDP and inventory investment. In the aftermath of a tightening of monetary policy, the %Safe variable increases, and in turn, policy tends to relax once %Safe has risen. C1 FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106. RP LANG, WW (reprint author), OFF COMPTROLLER CURRENCY,WASHINGTON,DC 20219, USA. NR 12 TC 40 Z9 40 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD AUG PY 1995 VL 36 IS 1 BP 145 EP 164 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(95)01204-9 PG 20 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TK068 UT WOS:A1995TK06800006 ER PT J AU BASU, S FERNALD, JG AF BASU, S FERNALD, JG TI ARE APPARENT PRODUCTIVE SPILLOVERS A FIGMENT OF SPECIFICATION ERROR SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE EXTERNALITIES; PRODUCTIVITY; VALUE-ADDED; IMPERFECT COMPETITION ID INCREASING RETURNS; PRICE; INDUSTRY; COST AB Using data on gross output for two-digit manufacturing industries, we find that an increase in the output of one manufacturing sector has little or no significant effect on the productivity of other sectors. Using value-added data, however, we confirm the results of previous studies which find that output spillovers instead appear large. We provide an explanation for these differences, showing why, with imperfect competition, the use of value-added data leads to a spurious finding of large apparent external effects. C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV INT FINANCE,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. UNIV MICHIGAN,DEPT ECON,ANN ARBOR,MI 48109. NR 33 TC 129 Z9 130 U1 0 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD AUG PY 1995 VL 36 IS 1 BP 165 EP 188 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(95)01208-6 PG 24 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TK068 UT WOS:A1995TK06800007 ER PT J AU STRAHAN, PE AF STRAHAN, PE TI ASSET RETURNS AND ECONOMIC DISASTERS - EVIDENCE FROM THE SAVINGS-AND-LOAN CRISIS SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE SAVINGS AND LOANS; ASSET PRICING; EQUITY PREMIUM ID ARBITRAGE; RISK; PREMIUM; CDS AB This paper shows that depositors lost confidence in FSLIC during the two years prior to passage of FIRREA, legislation which recapitalized the deposit insurance fund in 1989. During this period, promised returns on retail CDs reflected the expected loss and return standard deviation on these securities in the absence of government insurance. Cross-sectional analysis is used to estimate both the probability and the conditional price of risk associated with FSLIC default. The results suggest that increased uncertainty about both output and inflation in this disaster scenario drove the price of FSLIC default risk to extremely high levels. The results also indicate that the market for retail deposits is characterized by less than perfect arbitrage across geographical regions. RP STRAHAN, PE (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,DEPT BANKING STUDIES,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 21 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD AUG PY 1995 VL 36 IS 1 BP 189 EP 217 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(95)01207-4 PG 29 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TK068 UT WOS:A1995TK06800008 ER PT J AU PEEK, J ROSENGREN, E AF PEEK, J ROSENGREN, E TI THE CAPITAL CRUNCH - NEITHER A BORROWER NOR A LENDER BE SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID CREDIT C1 FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,DEPT RES,BOSTON,MA. RP PEEK, J (reprint author), BOSTON COLL,CHESTNUT HILL,MA 02167, USA. NR 9 TC 136 Z9 138 U1 0 U2 4 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1995 VL 27 IS 3 BP 625 EP 638 DI 10.2307/2077739 PG 14 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA RM968 UT WOS:A1995RM96800001 ER PT J AU ESPINOSAVEGA, MA AF ESPINOSAVEGA, MA TI MULTIPLE RESERVE REQUIREMENTS SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article RP ESPINOSAVEGA, MA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,DEPT RES,ATLANTA,GA, USA. NR 16 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1995 VL 27 IS 3 BP 762 EP 776 DI 10.2307/2077748 PG 15 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA RM968 UT WOS:A1995RM96800010 ER PT J AU BENSTON, GJ HUNTER, WC WALL, LD AF BENSTON, GJ HUNTER, WC WALL, LD TI MOTIVATIONS FOR BANK MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS - ENHANCING THE DEPOSIT INSURANCE PUT OPTION VERSUS EARNINGS DIVERSIFICATION SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID COMMERCIAL-BANKS; EFFICIENCY; ECONOMIES; SCALE C1 FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,ATLANTA,GA. FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL. RP BENSTON, GJ (reprint author), EMORY UNIV,SCH BUSINESS,ATLANTA,GA 30322, USA. NR 31 TC 39 Z9 40 U1 0 U2 4 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1995 VL 27 IS 3 BP 777 EP 788 DI 10.2307/2077749 PG 12 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA RM968 UT WOS:A1995RM96800011 ER PT J AU JUDD, JP TREHAN, B AF JUDD, JP TREHAN, B TI THE CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR OF PRICES - INTERPRETING THE EVIDENCE SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article RP JUDD, JP (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO,SAN FRANCISCO,CA, USA. NR 16 TC 19 Z9 19 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1995 VL 27 IS 3 BP 789 EP 797 DI 10.2307/2077750 PG 9 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA RM968 UT WOS:A1995RM96800012 ER PT J AU OLINER, S RUDEBUSCH, G SICHEL, D AF OLINER, S RUDEBUSCH, G SICHEL, D TI NEW AND OLD MODELS OF BUSINESS INVESTMENT - A COMPARISON OF FORECASTING PERFORMANCE SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID TIME-TO-BUILD; AGGREGATE FLUCTUATIONS; RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS; ECONOMETRIC MODELS; BEHAVIOR C1 FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO,SAN FRANCISCO,CA. BROOKINGS INST,WASHINGTON,DC 20036. RP OLINER, S (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,CAPITAL MARKETS SECT,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 38 TC 38 Z9 39 U1 1 U2 6 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1995 VL 27 IS 3 BP 806 EP 826 DI 10.2307/2077752 PG 21 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA RM968 UT WOS:A1995RM96800014 ER PT J AU GARFINKEL, MR THORNTON, DL AF GARFINKEL, MR THORNTON, DL TI THE INFORMATION-CONTENT OF THE FEDERAL-FUNDS RATE - IS IT UNIQUE SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID MONETARY TRANSMISSION; TIME-SERIES; TRENDS; MONEY C1 FED RESERVE BANK ST LOUIS, DEPT RES, ST LOUIS, MO USA. RP GARFINKEL, MR (reprint author), UNIV CALIF IRVINE, IRVINE, CA 92717 USA. NR 25 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 2 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI MALDEN PA COMMERCE PLACE, 350 MAIN ST, MALDEN 02148, MA USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1995 VL 27 IS 3 BP 838 EP 847 DI 10.2307/2077754 PG 10 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA RM968 UT WOS:A1995RM96800016 ER PT J AU ORPHANIDES, A ZERVOS, D AF ORPHANIDES, A ZERVOS, D TI RATIONAL ADDICTION WITH LEARNING AND REGRET SO JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Article ID MODEL AB We present a theory of rational behavior in which individuals maximize a set of stable preferences over goods with unknown addictive power. The theory is based on three fundamental postulates: that consumption of the addictive good is not equally harmful to all, that individuals possess subjective beliefs concerning this harm, and that beliefs are optimally updated with information gained through consumption. Although individual actions are optimal and dynamically consistent, addicts regret their past consumption decisions and regret their initial assessment of the potential harm of the good. Addict-prone individuals who belie iie ''it could not happen to them'' are most likely to be drawn into a harmful addiction. RP ORPHANIDES, A (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 24 TC 123 Z9 125 U1 1 U2 12 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0022-3808 J9 J POLIT ECON JI J. Polit. Econ. PD AUG PY 1995 VL 103 IS 4 BP 739 EP 758 DI 10.1086/262001 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RR867 UT WOS:A1995RR86700003 ER PT J AU AKHTAR, MA AF AKHTAR, MA TI MONETARY-POLICY AND LONG-TERM INTEREST-RATES - A SURVEY OF EMPIRICAL LITERATURE SO CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY LA English DT Article AB This paper surveys recent empirical literature on effects of monetary policy on long-term interest rates. Most studies reviewed here suggest that tightening monetary policy results in higher long-term interest rates. But available evidence suffers from conceptual and empirical problems and fails to indicate the magnitude of short-run land long-run policy effects on long rates. Also, recent studies have not investigated the possibility of shifts in recent-year effects of monetary policy on long rates. Finally, the paper offers a policy perspective on limitations of existing evidence and suggests future research on monetary policy effects on long rates. RP AKHTAR, MA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 64 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 0 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 SN 0735-0007 J9 CONTEMP ECON POLICY JI Contemp. Econ. Policy PD JUL PY 1995 VL 13 IS 3 BP 110 EP 130 PG 21 WC Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA RK357 UT WOS:A1995RK35700010 ER PT J AU DAHL, C YUCEL, MK AF DAHL, C YUCEL, MK TI PROTECTIONIST OIL POLICIES - A DYNAMIC COMPARISON FOR THE USA SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Article DE OIL; TARIFF; GASOLINE TAX ID BEHAVIOR AB Rising US oil imports have spawned a variety of policies for increasing energy security. We provide a qualitative comparison of policies using a dynamic optimal control model, Thirty-year price and output paths for OPEC and the USA are simulated assuming that US producers are competitive and OPEC is a dominant firm, We find that the policies have quite different effects on imports and welfare. The tariff reduces imports the most, followed by the gasoline tax. A per unit tariff and gasoline tax are costly in terms of US welfare, whereas an ad valorem tariff can both lower imports and enhance US welfare. C1 FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,DALLAS,TX 75265. RP DAHL, C (reprint author), COLORADO SCH MINES,DIV ECON & BUSINESS,GOLDEN,CO 80401, USA. OI Dahl, Carol/0000-0002-2425-6401 NR 19 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 2 PU BUTTERWORTH-HEINEMANN LTD PI OXFORD PA LINACRE HOUSE JORDAN HILL, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX2 8DP SN 0301-4215 J9 ENERG POLICY JI Energy Policy PD JUL PY 1995 VL 23 IS 7 BP 599 EP 605 DI 10.1016/0301-4215(95)98215-E PG 7 WC Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies SC Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences & Ecology GA RY651 UT WOS:A1995RY65100005 ER PT J AU BERGER, AN UDELL, GF AF BERGER, AN UDELL, GF TI RELATIONSHIP LENDING AND LINES OF CREDIT IN SMALL FIRM FINANCE SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS LA English DT Article ID ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION; BANK LOANS; INTERMEDIATION; EQUILIBRIUM; MARKETS; RISK; DEBT AB This article examines the role of relationship lending in small firm finance. It examines price and nonprice terms of bank lines of credit (L/Cs) extended to small firms. The focus on L/Cs allows the examination of a type of loan contract in which the bank-borrower relationship is likely to be an important mechanism for solving the asymmetric information problems associated with financing small enterprises. We find that borrowers with longer banking relationships pay lower interest rates and are less likely to pledge collateral. These results are consistent with theoretical arguments that relationship lending generates valuable information about borrower quality. C1 NYU,NEW YORK,NY 10003. RP BERGER, AN (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 46 TC 661 Z9 677 U1 16 U2 72 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0021-9398 J9 J BUS JI J. Bus. PD JUL PY 1995 VL 68 IS 3 BP 351 EP 381 DI 10.1086/296668 PG 31 WC Business SC Business & Economics GA RQ375 UT WOS:A1995RQ37500003 ER PT J AU MARY, GF AF MARY, GF TI VARIANCE PROPERTIES OF SOLOWS PRODUCTIVITY RESIDUAL AND THEIR CYCLICAL IMPLICATIONS SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article DE CAPITAL UTILIZATION; PRODUCTIVITY; BUSINESS CYCLES ID REAL-BUSINESS-CYCLE; SMALL OPEN-ECONOMY; INVESTMENT; TIME AB For the United States economy (1960-1989), the correlation between the growth rates of the Solow residual and the real price of energy (government spending) is -0.55 (0.09). This study develops a model to see if it quantitatively captures the endogenous transmission mechanism underlying the observed Solow residual correlations. It does. The transmission mechanism depends on endogenous capital utilization. Incorporating shocks to 'true' technology, energy prices, and government spending, the model economy accounts for 76 or 89 percent of U.S. output volatility and is generally consistent with features of U.S, business cycles. RP MARY, GF (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND,RES DEPT,RICHMOND,VA 23261, USA. NR 25 TC 30 Z9 30 U1 2 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD JUL-SEP PY 1995 VL 19 IS 5-7 BP 1249 EP 1281 DI 10.1016/0165-1889(94)00826-4 PG 33 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RH276 UT WOS:A1995RH27600016 ER PT J AU BONSERNEAL, C TANNER, G AF BONSERNEAL, C TANNER, G TI CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION AND THE VOLATILITY OF FOREIGN-EXCHANGE RATES - EVIDENCE FROM THE OPTIONS MARKET SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 FED RESERVE BANK KANSAS CITY,DEPT ECON RES,925 GRAND BLVD,KANSAS CITY,MO 64198. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 3 PU AMER FINANCE ASSN PI NEW YORK PA 44 WEST FOURTH ST, STE 9-190, NEW YORK, NY 10012 SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD JUL PY 1995 VL 50 IS 3 BP 957 EP 958 PG 2 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA RM883 UT WOS:A1995RM88300030 ER PT J AU DAVID, A AF DAVID, A TI FLUCTUATING CONFIDENCE AND STOCK-MARKET RETURNS SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,MAIL STOP 29,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 3 PU AMER FINANCE ASSN PI NEW YORK PA 44 WEST FOURTH ST, STE 9-190, NEW YORK, NY 10012 SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD JUL PY 1995 VL 50 IS 3 BP 965 EP 966 PG 2 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA RM883 UT WOS:A1995RM88300043 ER PT J AU HELWEGE, J LIANG, N AF HELWEGE, J LIANG, N TI IS THERE A PECKING ORDER - EVIDENCE FROM A PANEL OF IPO FIRMS SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 1 U2 4 PU AMER FINANCE ASSN PI NEW YORK PA 44 WEST FOURTH ST, STE 9-190, NEW YORK, NY 10012 SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD JUL PY 1995 VL 50 IS 3 BP 978 EP 979 PG 2 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA RM883 UT WOS:A1995RM88300066 ER PT J AU MELICK, WR THOMAS, CP AF MELICK, WR THOMAS, CP TI RECOVERING AN ASSETS IMPLIED PDF FROM OPTION PRICES - AN APPLICATION TO CRUDE-OIL DURING THE GULF CRISIS SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 4 PU AMER FINANCE ASSN PI NEW YORK PA 44 WEST FOURTH ST, STE 9-190, NEW YORK, NY 10012 SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD JUL PY 1995 VL 50 IS 3 BP 996 EP 996 PG 1 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA RM883 UT WOS:A1995RM88300092 ER PT J AU CALEM, P STUTZER, M AF CALEM, P STUTZER, M TI THE SIMPLE ANALYTICS OF OBSERVED DISCRIMINATION IN CREDIT MARKETS SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION LA English DT Article ID MORTGAGE AB Controversial econometric studies of mortgage data show that mortgage loan applications by some minorities are denied more frequently than are applications by whites with similar observable default risk factors. But recent evidence indicates that minority borrowers also default more frequently than whites with similar observable risk. This paper presents a simple equilibrium model of discriminatory credit rationing and finds parametric restrictions consistent with both these empirical findings. However, in this model, proposed antidiscrimination policies have surprising side effects. Thus, policy analysts accepting this empirical evidence should not expect to derive model-free conclusions about the effects of proposed policies. (C) 1995 Academic Press, Inc. C1 UNIV MINNESOTA,CSOM,DEPT FINANCE,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. RP CALEM, P (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 44 TC 11 Z9 11 U1 1 U2 2 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525B STREET, SUITE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 1042-9573 J9 J FINANC INTERMED JI J. Financ. Intermed. PD JUL PY 1995 VL 4 IS 3 BP 189 EP 212 DI 10.1006/jfin.1995.1009 PG 24 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA RK310 UT WOS:A1995RK31000001 ER PT J AU BREWER, E GENAY, H AF BREWER, E GENAY, H TI SMALL BUSINESS INVESTMENT COMPANIES - FINANCIAL CHARACTERISTICS AND INVESTMENTS SO JOURNAL OF SMALL BUSINESS MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID JAPAN; RISK AB Small business investment companies (SBICs) provide long-term financing to companies whose prospects and profits are difficult to evaluate and monitor by other investors. Banking organizations, which play a major role in providing short-term financing to small firms, use SBICs to channel long-term funds to small businesses. This paper examines the financial characteristics, investment patterns, and profitability of SBICs. The results show that the types of activities and industries financed by debt and equity investments are consistent with theories of asymmetric information and agency costs of external financing. In addition, the relationship between the profitability and characteristics of SBICs suggests that allowing banks to participate in the SBIC program provides advantages to small businesses, and that direct government subsidies are not required to enable investments in small businesses to be profitable in the long run. C1 FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL. RP BREWER, E (reprint author), UNIV ILLINOIS,URBANA,IL 61801, USA. NR 26 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 1 U2 4 PU INT COUNCIL SMALL BUSINESS PI MORGANTOWN PA WEST VIRGINIA UNIVERSITY BUREAU BUSINESS RESEARCH BOX 6025, MORGANTOWN, WV 26506-6025 SN 0047-2778 J9 J SMALL BUS MANAGE JI J. Small Bus. Manag. PD JUL PY 1995 VL 33 IS 3 BP 38 EP 56 PG 19 WC Management SC Business & Economics GA RU661 UT WOS:A1995RU66100004 ER PT J AU MAYER, CJ AF MAYER, CJ TI A MODEL OF NEGOTIATED SALES APPLIED TO REAL-ESTATE AUCTIONS SO JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID HOUSING-MARKET; INFORMATION AB Recently, real estate auctions have grown substantially in depressed markets. This article develops a framework to compare the performance of auctions to that of negotiated sales. First, the article solves a search model that incorporates unforeseen shocks and compares how prices respond in the short-run and long-run. Next, auctions are considered. Auctions are shown to obtain discounts because a quick sale results in a poorer ''match'' between house and buyer, on average, than could be obtained by waiting longer for a buyer. The model predicts that auction discounts should be larger in down markets with high vacancies, and in less dense markets. (C) 1995 Academic Press, Inc. RP MAYER, CJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,600 ATLANTIC AVE,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. NR 17 TC 32 Z9 32 U1 0 U2 1 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525B STREET, SUITE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0094-1190 J9 J URBAN ECON JI J. Urban Econ. PD JUL PY 1995 VL 38 IS 1 BP 1 EP 22 DI 10.1006/juec.1995.1020 PG 22 WC Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA RH885 UT WOS:A1995RH88500001 ER PT J AU SHEINER, L AF SHEINER, L TI HOUSING PRICES AND THE SAVINGS OF RENTERS SO JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID DEMAND; TAX AB This paper studies the effects of housing prices on the net worth of young households. Because prospective homeowners must accumulate down payments, a change in housing prices can change their saving patterns. Theoretically, the effect of increases in house prices on savings is ambiguous, because households can increase their saving to afford the larger down payment, or decrease their saving because they have chosen to delay or forego purchasing a house. Using data from the 1984 Panel Study of Income Dynamics [27], I show that empirically, the effect of increased housing prices on saving is positive, and quite large relative to the savings of young households. Young renter households living in cities with high housing prices have more net worth than those living in cities with lower housing prices, controlling for both the income of the households, as well as the per capita income of the city in which they live. (C) 1995 Academic Press, Inc. RP SHEINER, L (reprint author), FED RES BOARD GOVERNORS,STOP 83,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 27 TC 29 Z9 30 U1 0 U2 4 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525B STREET, SUITE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0094-1190 J9 J URBAN ECON JI J. Urban Econ. PD JUL PY 1995 VL 38 IS 1 BP 94 EP 125 DI 10.1006/juec.1995.1024 PG 32 WC Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA RH885 UT WOS:A1995RH88500005 ER PT J AU FIELEKE, NS AF FIELEKE, NS TI THE URUGUAY ROUND OF TRADE NEGOTIATIONS - INDUSTRIAL AND GEOGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN THE UNITED-STATES SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB No other international trade negotiations have been so comprehensive as the Uruguay Round, in which participants agreed to liberalize trade in agricultural products, to reduce tariffs on industrial products by an average of more than one-third, and to establish a World Trade Organization. This article examines the effects of the Uruguay Round agreements to liberalize trade in goods, focusing primarily on the United States. The analysis suggests that the agreements will have only a negligible impact upon employment in nearly every U.S. manufacturing sector, in every state, and in the country as a whole. The agreed trade liberalizations (as represented by the sectoral employment changes likely to result) seem to bear little relationship to the nation's revealed comparative advantages (weighted by employment). By and large, both the United States and its trading partners apparently resisted granting sizable trade liberalizations in sectors where the other possessed a marked comparative advantage. If so, both parties will be impeded from further specializing in the sectors of their greatest comparative advantage, and world income will grow by less than if both had been more forthcoming. RP FIELEKE, NS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 9 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 0 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JUL-AUG PY 1995 BP 3 EP 11 PG 9 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RP418 UT WOS:A1995RP41800001 ER PT J AU MCNEES, SK AF MCNEES, SK TI AN ASSESSMENT OF THE OFFICIAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB While many studies have evaluated the accuracy of ''official'' economic forecasts, this study may be the first published analysis of the Federal Open Market Committee's ''Humphrey-Hawkins'' forecasts. In this article, the ''official'' forecasts generated by the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are analyzed and compared to each other as well as to forecasts made by the private sector. The findings for the one-year-ahead forecasts reconfirm that the CEA, CBO, and private sector forecasts are about equally accurate while more accurate than simple rules of thumb. For the multiyear real GNP forecasts, however, evidence indicates that the forecasts of prominent commercial forecasters and the CBO are more accurate than those of the CEA, owing to an optimistic bias. In addition, the midpoints of the FOMC's longest forecasts outperform one standard private sector counterpart. RP MCNEES, SK (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 16 TC 11 Z9 11 U1 1 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JUL-AUG PY 1995 BP 13 EP 23 PG 11 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RP418 UT WOS:A1995RP41800002 ER PT J AU THOMAS, CP AF THOMAS, CP TI THE ROLE OF FISCAL-POLICY IN AN INCOMPLETE MARKETS FRAMEWORK SO REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES LA English DT Article ID EQUILIBRIUM AB A general-equilibrium model is developed to highlight the link between neo-Keynesian models of unemployment and recent results on the constrained sub-optimality of competitive economies with incomplete asset markets. Although the model deviates from the Arrow-Debreu paradigm only by the absence of some contingent claims, the competitive equilibrium exhibits under-employment and balanced-budget fiscal policies have Keynesian effects which are Pareto improving. RP THOMAS, CP (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 14 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 2 PU REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES LTD PI OXFORD PA C/O BASIL BLACKWELL LTD 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX4 1JF SN 0034-6527 J9 REV ECON STUD JI Rev. Econ. Stud. PD JUL PY 1995 VL 62 IS 3 BP 449 EP 468 DI 10.2307/2298037 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RM591 UT WOS:A1995RM59100006 ER PT J AU VAUGHAN, MD AF VAUGHAN, MD TI BOUNDED RATIONALITY IN MACROECONOMICS - SARGENT,T SO SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL LA English DT Book Review RP VAUGHAN, MD (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ST LOUIS,ST LOUIS,MO 63102, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU UNIV NORTH CAROLINA PI CHAPEL HILL PA SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, CHAPEL HILL, NC 27514 SN 0038-4038 J9 SOUTHERN ECON J JI South. Econ. J. PD JUL PY 1995 VL 62 IS 1 BP 298 EP 299 DI 10.2307/1061418 PG 2 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RH033 UT WOS:A1995RH03300048 ER PT J AU TATOM, JA AF TATOM, JA TI CURRENCY APPRECIATION AND DEINDUSTRIALIZATION - A EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE SO WORLD ECONOMY LA English DT Article C1 FED RESERVE BANK ST LOUIS,ST LOUIS,MO. RP TATOM, JA (reprint author), UNION BANK SWITZERLAND,ZURICH,SWITZERLAND. NR 34 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 2 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX4 1JF SN 0378-5920 J9 WORLD ECON JI World Econ. PD JUL PY 1995 VL 18 IS 4 BP 519 EP 541 DI 10.1111/j.1467-9701.1995.tb00229.x PG 23 WC Business, Finance; Economics; International Relations SC Business & Economics; International Relations GA RW017 UT WOS:A1995RW01700001 ER PT J AU COGLEY, T NASON, JM AF COGLEY, T NASON, JM TI OUTPUT DYNAMICS IN REAL-BUSINESS-CYCLE MODELS SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID AGGREGATE FLUCTUATIONS; STOCHASTIC TRENDS; TIME-SERIES; INVESTMENT; LABOR; DEMAND; BUILD AB The time-series literature reports two stylized facts about output dynamics in the United States: GNP growth is positively autocorrelated, and GNP appears to have an important trend-reverting component. This paper investigates whether current real-business-cycle (RBC) models are consistent with these stylized facts. Many RBC models have weak internal propagation mechanisms and must rely on external sources of dynamics to replicate both facts. Models that incorporate labor adjustment costs are partially successful. They endogenously generate positive autocorrelation in output growth, but they need implausibly large transitory shocks to match the trend-reverting component in output. C1 UNIV BRITISH COLUMBIA,DEPT ECON,VANCOUVER,BC V6T 1Z1,CANADA. RP COGLEY, T (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO,ECON RES DEPT,101 MARKET ST,SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94105, USA. NR 31 TC 202 Z9 204 U1 3 U2 9 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 85 IS 3 BP 492 EP 511 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RF809 UT WOS:A1995RF80900010 ER PT J AU KEHOE, TJ PRESCOTT, EC AF KEHOE, TJ PRESCOTT, EC TI INTRODUCTION TO THE SYMPOSIUM - THE DISCIPLINE OF APPLIED GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM SO ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article ID EMPIRICAL MACROECONOMICS; SCIENTIFIC ILLUSION; INTERNATIONAL-TRADE; GROWTH; MODEL; ACCUMULATION; CONTRACTS; TAXATION; TAX AB The use of general equilibrium models in applied research imposes a discipline in which model structures can easily be compared and contrasted and model results can be interpreted using a well understood and rigorously developed theoretical framework. These features allow researchers to compare results across modeling efforts and to build on the experience of others in deriving results and formulating questions. This paper first presents a brief critical history of applied general equilibrium analysis. It then summarizes the contributions of eight other papers in this issue. C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. RP KEHOE, TJ (reprint author), UNIV MINNESOTA,DEPT ECON,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455, USA. NR 60 TC 15 Z9 16 U1 1 U2 3 PU SPRINGER VERLAG PI NEW YORK PA 175 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0938-2259 J9 ECON THEORY JI Econ. Theory PD JUN PY 1995 VL 6 IS 1 BP 1 EP 11 DI 10.1007/BF01213938 PG 11 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RF368 UT WOS:A1995RF36800001 ER PT J AU KEHOE, TJ POLO, C SANCHO, F AF KEHOE, TJ POLO, C SANCHO, F TI AN EVALUATION OF THE PERFORMANCE OF AN APPLIED GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM-MODEL OF THE SPANISH ECONOMY SO ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article ID TRADE AB In 1985-86 the authors were members of a team that constructed a static applied general equilibrium model that was used to analyze the impact on the Spanish economy of the 1986 fiscal reform, which accompanied Spain's entry into the European Community. This paper compares the results obtained to recently published data for 1985-87; we find that the model performed well in predicting the changes in relative prices and resource allocation that actually occurred, particularly if we incorporate exogenous shocks that affected the Spanish economy in 1986. We also analyze the sensitivity of the results to alternative specifications of the labor market and macroeconomic closure rules; we find that the central results are robust. C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. UNIV AUTONOMA BARCELONA,DEPT ECON & HIST ECON,E-08193 BARCELONA,SPAIN. RP KEHOE, TJ (reprint author), UNIV MINNESOTA,DEPT ECON,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455, USA. RI Sancho, Ferran/K-1714-2014 OI Sancho, Ferran/0000-0002-6200-116X NR 26 TC 30 Z9 31 U1 1 U2 5 PU SPRINGER VERLAG PI NEW YORK PA 175 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0938-2259 J9 ECON THEORY JI Econ. Theory PD JUN PY 1995 VL 6 IS 1 BP 115 EP 141 DI 10.1007/BF01213943 PG 27 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RF368 UT WOS:A1995RF36800006 ER PT J AU RUPERT, P ROGERSON, R WRIGHT, R AF RUPERT, P ROGERSON, R WRIGHT, R TI ESTIMATING SUBSTITUTION ELASTICITIES IN HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTION MODELS SO ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article ID INTERTEMPORAL SUBSTITUTION; BUSINESS-CYCLE; LABOR; ALLOCATION; TIME AB Dynamic general equilibrium models that include explicit household production sectors provide a useful framework within which to analyze a variety of macroeconomic issues. However, some implications of these models depend critically on parameters, including the elasticity of substitution between market and home consumption goods, about which there is little information in the literature. Using the PSID, we estimate these parameters for single males, single females, and married couples. At least for single females and married couples, the results indicate a high enough substitution elasticity that including home production will make a significant difference in applied general equilibrium theory. C1 UNIV MINNESOTA,DEPT ECON,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. UNIV PENN,DEPT ECON,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. UNIV MINNESOTA,DEPT ECON,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. RP RUPERT, P (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,E 6TH & SUPER,CLEVELAND,OH 44101, USA. NR 22 TC 52 Z9 52 U1 1 U2 4 PU SPRINGER VERLAG PI NEW YORK PA 175 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0938-2259 J9 ECON THEORY JI Econ. Theory PD JUN PY 1995 VL 6 IS 1 BP 179 EP 193 DI 10.1007/BF01213946 PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RF368 UT WOS:A1995RF36800009 ER PT J AU BERGER, AN HERRING, RJ SZEGO, GP AF BERGER, AN HERRING, RJ SZEGO, GP TI THE ROLE OF CAPITAL IN FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Review DE BANK; CAPITAL; REGULATION; SECURITIZATION; CREDIT CRUNCH ID FEDERAL DEPOSIT INSURANCE; BANK-HOLDING COMPANIES; RISK-TAKING; MARKET DISCIPLINE; AGENCY COSTS; DEBT; MODEL; POLICIES AB This introductory article examines the role of capital in financial institutions - why it is important, how market-generated capital 'requirements' differ from regulatory requirements, and the form that regulatory requirements should take. Along the way, we examine historical trends in bank capital, problems in measuring capital, and some possible unintended consequences of capital requirements. Within this framework, we evaluate how the contributions to this special issue advance the literature and suggest topics for future research. C1 WHARTON FINANCIAL INST CTR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19104 USA. UNIV ROMA LA SAPIENZA, ROME, ITALY. RP BERGER, AN (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST, BOARD GOVERNORS, WASHINGTON, DC 20551 USA. NR 105 TC 156 Z9 158 U1 11 U2 38 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 19 IS 3-4 BP 393 EP 430 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(95)00002-X PG 38 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA RH879 UT WOS:A1995RH87900001 ER PT J AU JONES, DS KING, KK AF JONES, DS KING, KK TI THE IMPLEMENTATION OF PROMPT CORRECTIVE ACTION - AN ASSESSMENT SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE RISK-BASED CAPITAL; CAPITAL REGULATION; PROMPT CORRECTIVE ACTION; EARLY WARNING MODELS; FORBEARANCE AB To lessen forbearance, the FDIC Improvement Act of 1991 (FDICIA) requires that undercapitalized banks be subject to prompt corrective actions. We show that from 1984 through 1989, the vast majority of banks exhibiting a high risk of insolvency would not have been considered undercapitalized based on the current risk-based capital (RBC) standards, and so would not have been subject to mandatory corrective actions under FDICIA. We present evidence suggesting the usefulness of the RBC ratios could be enhanced substantially by adopting an improved standard for loan loss reserve adequacy and modifying the RBC risk weights to account for the greater credit risks of problem assets. C1 LAURITS R CHRISTENSEN ASSOC, MADISON, WI 53705 USA. RP FED RESERVE SYST, BOARD GOVERNORS, WASHINGTON, DC 20551 USA. NR 13 TC 34 Z9 34 U1 1 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 19 IS 3-4 BP 491 EP 510 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(94)00135-P PG 20 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA RH879 UT WOS:A1995RH87900005 ER PT J AU WALL, LD PETERSON, DR AF WALL, LD PETERSON, DR TI BANK-HOLDING COMPANY CAPITAL TARGETS IN THE EARLY 1990S - THE REGULATORS VERSUS THE MARKETS SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE BANK CAPITAL; REGULATION; CREDIT CRUNCH ID DISEQUILIBRIUM; RISK AB Several studies suggest that the credit crunch was due in large part to banks' needs to raise their capital ratios. The changes in bank capital ratios may have been in response to financial market or regulatory standards. This study develops a model to test the relative impact of the regulators and the financial markets on bank holding companies' (BHCs) capital ratios. The results suggest that most BHCs were relatively satisfied with their capital ratios in 1989. However, the regulators appear to have placed increased pressure on banks in 1990, 1991 and 1992, especially BHCs that were subject to regulatory orders. C1 EMORY UNIV,ATLANTA,GA 30322. FLORIDA STATE UNIV,TALLAHASSEE,FL 32306. RP WALL, LD (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,104 MARIETTA ST NW,ATLANTA,GA 30303, USA. NR 13 TC 13 Z9 14 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 19 IS 3-4 BP 563 EP 574 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(94)00139-T PG 12 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA RH879 UT WOS:A1995RH87900009 ER PT J AU CAREY, M AF CAREY, M TI PARTIAL MARKET VALUE ACCOUNTING, BANK CAPITAL VOLATILITY, AND BANK RISK SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE MARKET VALUE ACCOUNTING; FAS 115; BANK REGULATION; BANK CAPITAL AB This paper presents evidence on the costs and benefits for the U.S. banking system of a partial version of market value accounting in which only securities are marked to market. Because accounting for liabilities is unchanged, this accounting system has the same potential for misvaluing bank capital as historical cost accounting. Evidence from bank failure prediction models indicates the new system will not reduce bank failure rates. Other evidence indicates that net benefits will be small in absolute value, and of uncertain sign. RP CAREY, M (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 21 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 1 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 19 IS 3-4 BP 607 EP 622 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(94)00142-P PG 16 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA RH879 UT WOS:A1995RH87900012 ER PT J AU CARLSTROM, CT SAMOLYK, KA AF CARLSTROM, CT SAMOLYK, KA TI LOAN SALES AS A RESPONSE TO MARKET-BASED CAPITAL CONSTRAINTS SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE FINANCE; FINANCIAL MARKETS; BANKING; SECURITIZATION AB Models of bank loan sales often appeal to regulatory constraints to motivate this off-balance-sheet activity. Here, we present a market-based model of bank asset sales in which information asymmetries create the incentive for unregulated banks to originate and sell loans to other banks, rather than fund them with deposit liabilities. Banks have a comparative advantage in locating and screening projects within their locality. However, because of private information, banks can fund projects in their portfolio only to the extent that their capital can adequately buffer potential losses on these investments. A loan sales market allows a banker having adequate capital to acquire profitable projects originated by a banker whose own capital is insufficient to support the additional risk. RP CARLSTROM, CT (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,RES DEPT,POB 6387,CLEVELAND,OH 44101, USA. NR 14 TC 27 Z9 27 U1 2 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 19 IS 3-4 BP 627 EP 646 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(94)00144-R PG 20 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA RH879 UT WOS:A1995RH87900014 ER PT J AU HANCOCK, D LAING, AJ WILCOX, JA AF HANCOCK, D LAING, AJ WILCOX, JA TI BANK CAPITAL SHOCKS - DYNAMIC EFFECTS ON SECURITIES, LOANS, AND CAPITAL SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE BANKS; CAPITAL; CREDIT CRUNCH; PORTFOLIO ADJUSTMENT AB We used quarterly data for individual banks to estimate recent dynamic responses to bank capital shocks. While it took bank capital and securities only one year to adjust to capital shocks, liabilities and most loan categories took two to three years to complete their adjustments. Compared with those in the late 1980s, capital shocks were twice as large and portfolio responses to capital shocks tended to be more rapid in the early 1990s. Larger banks adjusted each component of their portfolios faster than smaller banks. Capital shocks caused banks with capital shortfalls to contract more and more quickly in the 1990s than they had in the 1980s. C1 UNIV CALIF BERKELEY, BERKELEY, CA 94720 USA. RP HANCOCK, D (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST, BOARD GOVERNORS, WASHINGTON, DC 20551 USA. NR 13 TC 59 Z9 59 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 19 IS 3-4 BP 661 EP 677 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(94)00147-U PG 17 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA RH879 UT WOS:A1995RH87900017 ER PT J AU PEEK, J ROSENGREN, E AF PEEK, J ROSENGREN, E TI BANK REGULATION AND THE CREDIT CRUNCH SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE BANKING; REGULATION; CREDIT CRUNCH AB This study investigates the direct link between regulatory enforcement actions and the shrinkage of bank loans to sectors likely to be bank dependent. We partition the shrinkage due to loan supply into the component due to explicit regulatory enforcement actions and that due to a voluntary response by bank management to low capital-to-asset ratios. We find that banks with formal actions shrink at a significantly faster rate than those without, even after controlling for differences in capital-to-asset ratios. Furthermore, much of the reduced lending has been in categories containing primarily loans to bank-dependent borrowers. C1 FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON, RES DEPT, BOSTON, MA 02106 USA. BOSTON COLL, DEPT ECON, BOSTON, MA 02106 USA. NR 13 TC 104 Z9 106 U1 3 U2 14 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 19 IS 3-4 BP 679 EP 692 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(94)00148-V PG 14 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA RH879 UT WOS:A1995RH87900018 ER PT J AU AVERY, RB AF AVERY, RB TI HANCOCK, LAING AND WILCOX AND PEEK AND ROSENGREN - COMMENT SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Note C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,ITHACA,NY 14853. RP AVERY, RB (reprint author), CORNELL UNIV,ITHACA,NY 14853, USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 19 IS 3-4 BP 713 EP 715 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(94)00150-2 PG 3 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA RH879 UT WOS:A1995RH87900020 ER PT J AU KWAN, SH EISENBEIS, RA AF KWAN, SH EISENBEIS, RA TI AN ANALYSIS OF INEFFICIENCIES IN BANKING SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Discussion C1 UNIV N CAROLINA,CHAPEL HILL,NC 27599. RP KWAN, SH (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO,SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94105, USA. NR 0 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 1 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 19 IS 3-4 BP 733 EP 734 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(94)00155-V PG 2 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA RH879 UT WOS:A1995RH87900025 ER PT J AU NOE, TH REBELLO, MJ AF NOE, TH REBELLO, MJ TI CONSUMER ACTIVISM, PRODUCER GROUPS, AND PRODUCTION STANDARDS SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION LA English DT Article DE PRODUCTION STANDARDS; BUSINESS ETHICS; PRODUCER GROUPS; CONSUMER ACTIVISM; PRODUCER GROUPS; PRODUCTION STANDARDS AB We examine competition between groups of producers when consumers prefer costly 'ethical' production technologies. Consumers are unable to identify or monitor production technologies. Producers can freeride on their group's 'reputation' by substituting cheaper 'unethical' technologies. When an ethical technology is Pareto-optimal, social pressures within competing producer groups can ensure long-run dominance of groups relying most heavily on the ethical technology. Even if social pressures cannot support the choice of the ethical technology in the long run, competition between producer groups can increase the average level of adoption of the ethical technology for an arbitrarily long period of time. C1 GEORGIA STATE UNIV, COLL BUSINESS ADM, DEPT FINANCE, ATLANTA, GA 30303 USA. FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA, ATLANTA, GA 30303 USA. NR 22 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-2681 J9 J ECON BEHAV ORGAN JI J. Econ. Behav. Organ. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 27 IS 1 BP 69 EP 85 DI 10.1016/0167-2681(95)00005-D PG 17 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RU894 UT WOS:A1995RU89400004 ER PT J AU ROLNICK, AJ WEBER, WE AF ROLNICK, AJ WEBER, WE TI ESTABLISHING A MONETARY UNION - THE UNITED-STATES EXPERIENCE SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. CORNELL UNIV,ITHACA,NY 14853. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS PI NEW YORK PA 40 WEST 20TH STREET, NEW YORK, NY 10011-4211 SN 0022-0507 J9 J ECON HIST JI J. Econ. Hist. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 55 IS 2 BP 396 EP 397 PG 2 WC Economics; History; History Of Social Sciences SC Business & Economics; History; Social Sciences - Other Topics GA RD140 UT WOS:A1995RD14000026 ER PT J AU COUGHLIN, CC WHEELOCK, D AF COUGHLIN, CC WHEELOCK, D TI LESSONS FOR THE UNITED-STATES AND THE EUROPEAN-COMMUNITY FOR THE INTEGRATION OF HIGH-INCOME AND LOW-INCOME ECONOMIES SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY LA English DT Meeting Abstract RP COUGHLIN, CC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ST LOUIS,ST LOUIS,MO, USA. RI Wheelock, David/I-5757-2016; Coughlin, Cletus/K-6860-2016 OI Wheelock, David/0000-0002-2702-8164; Coughlin, Cletus/0000-0002-8304-2796 NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS PI NEW YORK PA 40 WEST 20TH STREET, NEW YORK, NY 10011-4211 SN 0022-0507 J9 J ECON HIST JI J. Econ. Hist. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 55 IS 2 BP 401 EP 401 PG 1 WC Economics; History; History Of Social Sciences SC Business & Economics; History; Social Sciences - Other Topics GA RD140 UT WOS:A1995RD14000037 ER PT J AU WHEELOCK, DC AF WHEELOCK, DC TI PANIC IN PARADISE - FLORIDA BANKING CRASH OF 1926 - VICKERS,RB SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY LA English DT Book Review RP WHEELOCK, DC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ST LOUIS,ST LOUIS,MO, USA. RI Wheelock, David/I-5757-2016 OI Wheelock, David/0000-0002-2702-8164 NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS PI NEW YORK PA 40 WEST 20TH STREET, NEW YORK, NY 10011-4211 SN 0022-0507 J9 J ECON HIST JI J. Econ. Hist. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 55 IS 2 BP 444 EP 445 PG 2 WC Economics; History; History Of Social Sciences SC Business & Economics; History; Social Sciences - Other Topics GA RD140 UT WOS:A1995RD14000079 ER PT J AU GAVIN, WT AF GAVIN, WT TI THE GREAT CANADIAN DISINFLATION - THE ECONOMICS AND POLITICS OF MONETARY-POLICY IN CANADA, 1988-93 - LAIDLER,DEW, ROBSON,WBP SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE LA English DT Book Review RP GAVIN, WT (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ST LOUIS,ST LOUIS,MO, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0022-0515 J9 J ECON LIT JI J. Econ. Lit. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 33 IS 2 BP 843 EP 844 PG 2 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RG021 UT WOS:A1995RG02100027 ER PT J AU CHANG, R AF CHANG, R TI BARGAINING A MONETARY UNION SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article ID POLICY; MODEL AB Two governments bargain over the benefits of a monetary union in a cash-in-advance world. A novel feature of the model is that, because households trade every period, market behavior affects and is affected by the government negotiations. As a result, in addition to objective costs of delay, market expectations about the bargaining outcome emerge as crucial determinants of a monetary union. There is a continuum of bargaining outcomes indexed by market expectations. Some outcomes imply that the monetary union is delayed for an arbitrary number of periods. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: F4, C7. (C) 1995 Academic Press, Inc. RP CHANG, R (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,ATLANTA,GA 30303, USA. NR 27 TC 10 Z9 11 U1 0 U2 1 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525B STREET, SUITE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0022-0531 J9 J ECON THEORY JI J. Econ. Theory PD JUN PY 1995 VL 66 IS 1 BP 89 EP 112 DI 10.1006/jeth.1995.1033 PG 24 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RF740 UT WOS:A1995RF74000004 ER PT J AU GOSWAMI, G NOE, T REBELLO, M AF GOSWAMI, G NOE, T REBELLO, M TI DEBT FINANCING UNDER ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Article ID MATURITY STRUCTURE; CALL; CONTRACTS; RISK AB We analyze the optimal design of debt maturity, coupon payments, and dividend payout restrictions under asymmetric information. We show that, if the asymmetry of information is concentrated around long-term cash flows, firms finance with coupon-bearing long-term debt that partially restricts dividend payments. If the asymmetry of information is concentrated around near-term cash flows and there exists considerable refinancing risk, firms finance with coupon-bearing long-term debt that does not restrict dividend payments. Finally, if the asymmetry of information is uniformly distributed across dates, firms finance with short-term debt. C1 GEORGIA STATE UNIV,ATLANTA,GA 30303. FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,ATLANTA,GA. RP GOSWAMI, G (reprint author), FORDHAM UNIV,BRONX,NY 10458, USA. NR 27 TC 14 Z9 17 U1 2 U2 10 PU AMER FINANCE ASSN PI NEW YORK PA 44 WEST FOURTH ST, STE 9-190, NEW YORK, NY 10012 SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 50 IS 2 BP 633 EP 659 DI 10.2307/2329422 PG 27 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA RG775 UT WOS:A1995RG77500009 ER PT J AU HANNAN, TH LIANG, JN AF HANNAN, TH LIANG, JN TI THE INFLUENCE OF THRIFT COMPETITION ON BANK BUSINESS LOAN RATES SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Article AB This article assesses the competitive influence of thrift institutions on the pricing of commercial loans made by commercial banks. Using detailed survey information on the rates that individual banks charge for various types of commercial loans, we attempt to determine which of various proposed weightings of thrift institutions, when incorporated in measures of market concentration, best explains loan rates. After considering several weighting schemes, including those designed to approximate current regulatory practice in analyzing the competitive impact of proposed bank mergers, we find that in all but one of the cases examined, the use of a positive weight for thrift institutions explains bank loan rates, if anything, more poorly than does a weighting of zero for such institutions. RP HANNAN, TH (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV RES & STAT,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 8 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 3 U2 4 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 9 IS 2 BP 107 EP 122 DI 10.1007/BF01068073 PG 16 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA QV792 UT WOS:A1995QV79200001 ER PT J AU FERGUS, JT NOTHAFT, FE AF FERGUS, JT NOTHAFT, FE TI SPATIAL VARIATION IN CONSTRUCTION LOAN PRICING AT COMMERCIAL-BANKS SO JOURNAL OF HOUSING ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID MARKET-STRUCTURE AB This paper presents an option-based model of construction loan pricing which we test with data for construction loans secured by three distinct property types. The empirical results are generally consistent with the theory for loans on one- to four-family and nonresidential properties. We find evidence that market concentration and demand for construction loans affect pricing for one- to four-family and nonresidential construction loans, consistent with the view that the construction loan market is local in scope. We also find evidence that loan participations and larger bank size are associated with lower interest rates. (C) 1995 Academic Press. Inc. C1 FREDDIE MAC,FINANCIAL RES DEPT,MCLEAN,VA 22102. RP FERGUS, JT (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,DIV RES & STAT,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 29 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 1 U2 2 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525B STREET, SUITE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 1051-1377 J9 J HOUS ECON JI J. Hous. Econ. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 4 IS 2 BP 118 EP 135 DI 10.1006/jhec.1995.1006 PG 18 WC Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA RZ294 UT WOS:A1995RZ29400002 ER PT J AU HASSETT, KA METCALF, GE AF HASSETT, KA METCALF, GE TI ENERGY TAX CREDITS AND RESIDENTIAL CONSERVATION INVESTMENTS - EVIDENCE FROM PANEL-DATA SO JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE INVESTMENT; ENERGY TAXATION; SUBSIDIES ID HOUSING-MARKET AB Using panel data on individual tax returns and variation in state tax policy, we measure the impact of government tax policies to encourage residential conservation investment on the probability of making these investments. Unlike previous work, we account for unobserved heterogeneity in tastes for energy-saving activities and its possible correlation with tax policy at the state level. We find that controlling for unobserved heterogeneity is very important. Based on our preferred point estimate of the tax price coefficient, a 10 percentage point change in the tax price for energy investment would lead to a 24 percent increase in the probability of making an investment. C1 TUFTS UNIV,DEPT ECON,MEDFORD,MA 02155. NBER,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 18 TC 61 Z9 61 U1 2 U2 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0047-2727 J9 J PUBLIC ECON JI J. Public Econ. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 57 IS 2 BP 201 EP 217 DI 10.1016/0047-2727(94)01452-T PG 17 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RD142 UT WOS:A1995RD14200002 ER PT J AU MORENO, R AF MORENO, R TI HOW BIG IS THE PERMANENT COMPONENT IN GNP - THE EVIDENCE FROM JAPAN SO JOURNAL OF THE JAPANESE AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIES LA English DT Article ID ECONOMIC TIME-SERIES; TRANSITORY COMPONENTS; INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE; RANDOM-WALK; FLUCTUATIONS; OUTPUT; HYPOTHESIS; TRENDS; CYCLE AB This paper estimates the size of the permanent component of GNP in Japan by applying parametric and nonparametric measures to long historical annual data extending back to 1885 and quarterly postwar data. Parametric measures suggest that shocks to Japanese GNP have large permanent effects. This result does not appear to be an artifact of time aggregation nor of apparent breaks in GNP growth. Nonparametric measures suggest that shocks to Japanese GNP have permanent effects, but estimates of these effects are much smaller when apparent breaks are taken into account. (C) 1995 Academic Press, Inc. RP MORENO, R (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO,SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94105, USA. NR 37 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525B STREET, SUITE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0889-1583 J9 J JPN INT ECON JI J. Jpn. Inst. Econ. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 9 IS 2 BP 130 EP 153 DI 10.1006/jjie.1995.1008 PG 24 WC Economics; International Relations SC Business & Economics; International Relations GA RB203 UT WOS:A1995RB20300002 ER PT J AU DEKLE, R AF DEKLE, R TI JAPANESE MONETARY-POLICY - SINGLETON,KJ SO PACIFIC AFFAIRS LA English DT Book Review RP DEKLE, R (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU UNIV BRITISH COLUMBIA PI VANCOUVER PA 2029 WEST MALL, VANCOUVER BC V6T 1W5, CANADA SN 0030-851X J9 PAC AFF JI Pac. Aff. PD SUM PY 1995 VL 68 IS 2 BP 274 EP 275 DI 10.2307/2761386 PG 2 WC Area Studies SC Area Studies GA RW565 UT WOS:A1995RW56500022 ER PT J AU SMITH, BD STUTZER, M AF SMITH, BD STUTZER, M TI A THEORY OF MUTUAL FORMATION AND MORAL HAZARD WITH EVIDENCE FROM THE HISTORY OF THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY SO REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES LA English DT Article ID OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE; LIABILITY INSURANCE; MEDICAL MALPRACTICE; ADVERSE SELECTION; FIRM; STOCK; INFORMATION; MARKETS; RISK AB Nonprofit, mutually owned insurance and banking organizations have significant market shares in the insurance and banking industries. A first step in a systematic study of these financial mutuals is to examine the reasons for their formation. Doing so provides empirical support for the view that these mutuals arose as an efficient means of addressing contracting challenges caused by aggregate uncertainties and moral hazard. A formal model with this property is presented. We argue that information asymmetries do more to explain the kinds of contracts offered by financial mutuals than do agency problems between owners, managers, and customers. C1 UNIV MINNESOTA,DEPT FINANCE,CSOM,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. CORNELL UNIV,ITHACA,NY 14853. FED RESERVE BANK,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. NR 48 TC 23 Z9 23 U1 0 U2 4 PU OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC PI CARY PA JOURNALS DEPT, 2001 EVANS RD, CARY, NC 27513 SN 0893-9454 J9 REV FINANC STUD JI Rev. Financ. Stud. PD SUM PY 1995 VL 8 IS 2 BP 545 EP 577 DI 10.1093/rfs/8.2.545 PG 33 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA RD614 UT WOS:A1995RD61400010 ER PT J AU NEUMARK, D WASCHER, W AF NEUMARK, D WASCHER, W TI MINIMUM-WAGE EFFECTS ON SCHOOL AND WORK TRANSITIONS OF TEENAGERS SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 107th Annual Meeting of the American-Economic-Association CY JAN 05-08, 1995 CL WASHINGTON, DC SP Amer Econ Assoc ID EMPLOYMENT C1 NBER,CAMBRIDGE,MA. FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP NEUMARK, D (reprint author), MICHIGAN STATE UNIV,DEPT ECON,E LANSING,MI 48824, USA. NR 10 TC 31 Z9 31 U1 0 U2 4 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1995 VL 85 IS 2 BP 244 EP 249 PG 6 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RB651 UT WOS:A1995RB65100048 ER PT J AU CHATTERJEE, S CORBAE, D AF CHATTERJEE, S CORBAE, D TI VALUATION EQUILIBRIA WITH TRANSACTIONS COSTS SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 107th Annual Meeting of the American-Economic-Association CY JAN 05-08, 1995 CL WASHINGTON, DC SP Amer Econ Assoc C1 UNIV IOWA,DEPT ECON,IOWA CITY,IA 52242. RP CHATTERJEE, S (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,RES DEPT,10 INDEPENDENCE MALL,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 3 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 1 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1995 VL 85 IS 2 BP 287 EP 290 PG 4 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RB651 UT WOS:A1995RB65100056 ER PT J AU SMITH, BD AF SMITH, BD TI SECTORAL EMPLOYMENT AND CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS IN AN ADVERSE SELECTION MODEL SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID BUSINESS-CYCLE MODEL; PRIVATE INFORMATION; INSURANCE MARKETS; LABOR-MARKET; UNEMPLOYMENT; EQUILIBRIUM; SHIFTS AB A model of self-selection in the labor market in the presence of private information is developed. The model is used to explain the correlation between the unemployment rate and the sectoral composition of employment first observed by Lilien. The model also generates a (nonexploitable) Phillips curve, and is consistent with observed correlations between hours and productivity. In addition, it is consistent with micro-economic evidence on the behavior of sectoral wage dispersions over the cycle, and the absence of cyclicality associated with ''industry switching.'' C1 FED RESERVE BANK,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. RP SMITH, BD (reprint author), CORNELL UNIV,ITHACA,NY 14853, USA. NR 26 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 4 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1995 VL 36 IS 2 BP 261 EP 281 DI 10.2307/2527196 PG 21 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QX267 UT WOS:A1995QX26700001 ER PT J AU COLE, HL DOW, J ENGLISH, WB AF COLE, HL DOW, J ENGLISH, WB TI DEFAULT, SETTLEMENT, AND SIGNALING - LENDING RESUMPTION IN A REPUTATIONAL MODEL OF SOVEREIGN DEBT SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID REPUDIATION; RISK AB This paper develops a simple model of sovereign debt in which defaulting nations are excluded from capital markets and regain access by making partial repayments. This implication of the model is consistent with the historical evidence that defaulting countries return to international loan markets soon after a settlement, but after varying periods of exclusion. C1 LONDON BUSINESS SCH,INST FINANCE & ACCOUNTING,LONDON,ENGLAND. FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP COLE, HL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,250 MARQUETTE AVE,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55401, USA. NR 39 TC 60 Z9 60 U1 2 U2 4 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1995 VL 36 IS 2 BP 365 EP 385 DI 10.2307/2527201 PG 21 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QX267 UT WOS:A1995QX26700006 ER PT J AU CHANG, R AF CHANG, R TI PRIVATE INVESTMENT AND SOVEREIGN DEBT NEGOTIATIONS SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID MODEL; POLICY AB I study models of sovereign debt bargaining of the kind proposed by Bulow and Rogoff. All agents act rationally with perfect foresight and perfect information. The main departure from previous studies is that the government of the debtor country acts on behalf of but is not identical to its representative citizen. This seemingly minor change surprisingly implies that (i) there is an indeterminacy of bargaining outcomes, including some of the sunspots type; (ii) agreement may be delayed for many periods; and (iii) marginal debt may not be worthless. RP CHANG, R (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,104 MARIETTA ST NW,ATLANTA,GA 30303, USA. NR 20 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 1 U2 1 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1995 VL 36 IS 2 BP 387 EP 405 DI 10.2307/2527202 PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QX267 UT WOS:A1995QX26700007 ER PT J AU BRUNNER, AD HESS, GD AF BRUNNER, AD HESS, GD TI POTENTIAL PROBLEMS IN ESTIMATING BILINEAR TIME-SERIES MODELS SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article DE NONLINEAR TIME-SERIES MODELS; BILINEAR TIME-SERIES MODELS; FINITE-SAMPLE DISTRIBUTIONS AB We present evidence of undesirable statistical properties of the bilinear model. We show that in certain regions of the parameter space the expected likelihood function exhibits bimodality. The true optimum is often characterized by a long, narrow spike that becomes more pronounced with increases in the sample size, Consequently, conventional optimization routines would frequently miss a global optimum with this feature. Moreover, although statistical, tests would have strong power against alternatives near the global optimum, they would have almost zero power against the local minimum. This phenomenon also continues to persist in extremely large samples. In addition, we show that the distributional properties of the parameter estimates and the standard t-statistic also do not have desirable properties in finite samples. C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. UNIV KANSAS,DEPT ECON,LAWRENCE,KS 66045. NR 14 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD MAY PY 1995 VL 19 IS 4 BP 663 EP 681 DI 10.1016/0165-1889(94)00798-M PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QN267 UT WOS:A1995QN26700001 ER PT J AU WEBB, RH AF WEBB, RH TI FORECASTS OF INFLATION FROM VAR MODELS SO JOURNAL OF FORECASTING LA English DT Article DE INFLATION FORECASTS; VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS; MONETARY POLICY REGIMES ID MONETARY AB Why are forecasts of inflation from VAR models so much worse than their forecasts of real variables? This paper documents that relatively poor performance, and finds that the price equation of a VAR model fitted to US post-war data is poorly specified. Statistical work by other authors has found that coefficients in such price equations may not be constant. Based on specific monetary actions, two changes in monetary policy regimes are proposed. Accounting for those two shifts yields significantly more accurate forecasts and lessens the evidence of misspecification. RP WEBB, RH (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND,POB 27622,RICHMOND,VA 23261, USA. NR 29 TC 8 Z9 8 U1 1 U2 3 PU JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD PI W SUSSEX PA BAFFINS LANE CHICHESTER, W SUSSEX, ENGLAND PO19 1UD SN 0277-6693 J9 J FORECASTING JI J. Forecast. PD MAY PY 1995 VL 14 IS 3 BP 267 EP 285 DI 10.1002/for.3980140309 PG 19 WC Economics; Management SC Business & Economics GA QW436 UT WOS:A1995QW43600008 ER PT J AU GLICK, R KRETZMER, P WIHLBORG, C AF GLICK, R KRETZMER, P WIHLBORG, C TI REAL EXCHANGE-RATE EFFECTS OF MONETARY DISTURBANCES UNDER DIFFERENT DEGREES OF EXCHANGE-RATE FLEXIBILITY - AN EMPIRICAL-ANALYSIS SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE EXCHANGE RATE; MONETARY POLICY ID RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS; UNANTICIPATED MONEY; INFORMATION-CONTENT; POLICY; ECONOMY; OUTPUT; MODEL AB We examine the effects of monetary policy on the real exchange rate. In a cross-country analysis, we find that the variability of money shocks and the degree of informativeness of the exchange rate are important determinants of the magnitude of the real exchange rate effects of domestic money shocks. Our results are consistent with previous cross-country evidence on the output effects of money shocks but also highlight the role of the exchange rate regime. C1 NATIONSBANC CAPITAL MARKETS,NEW YORK,NY 10004. GOTHENBURG UNIV,SCH ECON & COMMERCIAL LAW,S-41125 GOTHENBURG,SWEDEN. RP GLICK, R (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO,RES DEPT,101 MKT ST,SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94105, USA. NR 23 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD MAY PY 1995 VL 38 IS 3-4 BP 249 EP 273 DI 10.1016/0022-1996(94)01360-5 PG 25 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QZ883 UT WOS:A1995QZ88300003 ER PT J AU ROGERS, JH JENKINS, M AF ROGERS, JH JENKINS, M TI HAIRCUTS OR HYSTERESIS - SOURCES OF MOVEMENTS IN REAL EXCHANGE-RATES SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE RELATIVE PRICES; STATIONARITY; PERSISTENCE; NON-TRADABLES ID PURCHASING POWER PARITY; RATE DYNAMICS; TIME-SERIES; UNIT-ROOT; LONG-RUN; INTEGRATED SYSTEMS; MENU COSTS; PRICES; COINTEGRATION; STICKY AB We empirically assess the importance of two sources of real exchange rate movements. In models where PPP holds only among traded goods, real exchange rate variation results from relative price movements within countries. An alternative explanation relies on hysteretic price-setting and nominal exchange rate changes. Using disaggregated price data from 11 OECD nations, we find some support for the non-traded goods models. For examples, prices of haircuts in Canada and the United States are unrelated in the long run. We find stronger evidence to support models that emphasize sticky prices, transportation costs, or other impediments to frictionless trade. C1 UNIV WALES,BANGOR LL57 2DG,GWYNEDD,WALES. PENN STATE UNIV,DEPT ECON,UNIVERSITY PK,PA 16802. RP ROGERS, JH (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,DIV INT FINANCE,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 42 TC 64 Z9 64 U1 2 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD MAY PY 1995 VL 38 IS 3-4 BP 339 EP 360 DI 10.1016/0022-1996(94)01354-U PG 22 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QZ883 UT WOS:A1995QZ88300007 ER PT J AU HAKKIO, CS SIBERT, A AF HAKKIO, CS SIBERT, A TI THE FOREIGN-EXCHANGE RISK PREMIUM - IS IT REAL SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID RATES; PRICES; MARKET C1 VIRGINIA POLYTECH INST & STATE UNIV,BLACKSBURG,VA 24061. RP HAKKIO, CS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK,KANSAS CITY,KS, USA. NR 29 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD MAY PY 1995 VL 27 IS 2 BP 301 EP 317 DI 10.2307/2077869 PG 17 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA QY208 UT WOS:A1995QY20800001 ER PT J AU BERGER, AN AF BERGER, AN TI THE PROFIT-STRUCTURE RELATIONSHIP IN BANKING - TESTS OF MARKET-POWER AND EFFICIENT-STRUCTURE HYPOTHESES SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID STRUCTURE-PERFORMANCE RELATIONSHIP; PRICE-CONCENTRATION RELATIONSHIP; PRODUCT MIX ECONOMIES; TOBIN-Q; SCALE; PROFITABILITY; SHARE RP BERGER, AN (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 35 TC 199 Z9 203 U1 3 U2 29 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD MAY PY 1995 VL 27 IS 2 BP 404 EP 431 DI 10.2307/2077876 PG 28 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA QY208 UT WOS:A1995QY20800008 ER PT J AU BERGER, AN AF BERGER, AN TI THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CAPITAL AND EARNINGS IN BANKING SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID DEPOSIT INSURANCE; RISK RP BERGER, AN (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 16 TC 133 Z9 134 U1 3 U2 9 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD MAY PY 1995 VL 27 IS 2 BP 432 EP 456 DI 10.2307/2077877 PG 25 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA QY208 UT WOS:A1995QY20800009 ER PT J AU LOUNGANI, P AF LOUNGANI, P TI THE EFFECT OF CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON INVESTMENT AND GNP SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID GREAT-DEPRESSION; MONEY; CREDIT; OUTPUT C1 UNIV FLORIDA, GAINESVILLE, FL 32611 USA. RP LOUNGANI, P (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD, DIV INT FINANCE, WASHINGTON, DC USA. NR 28 TC 12 Z9 13 U1 0 U2 2 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI MALDEN PA COMMERCE PLACE, 350 MAIN ST, MALDEN 02148, MA USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD MAY PY 1995 VL 27 IS 2 BP 511 EP 526 DI 10.2307/2077881 PG 16 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA QY208 UT WOS:A1995QY20800013 ER PT J AU CHIRINKO, RS SCHALLER, H AF CHIRINKO, RS SCHALLER, H TI WHY DOES LIQUIDITY MATTER IN INVESTMENT EQUATIONS SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID CORPORATE-INVESTMENT; FLUCTUATIONS; CONSTRAINTS C1 FED RESERVE BANK,DEPT RES,KANSAS CITY,KS. PRINCETON UNIV,PRINCETON,NJ 08544. CARLETON UNIV,OTTAWA,ON K1S 5B6,CANADA. RP CHIRINKO, RS (reprint author), EMORY UNIV,ATLANTA,GA 30322, USA. NR 28 TC 56 Z9 57 U1 0 U2 4 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD MAY PY 1995 VL 27 IS 2 BP 527 EP 548 DI 10.2307/2077882 PG 22 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA QY208 UT WOS:A1995QY20800014 ER PT J AU DUCA, JV WHITESELL, WC AF DUCA, JV WHITESELL, WC TI CREDIT CARDS AND MONEY DEMAND - A CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDY SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article RP DUCA, JV (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,DALLAS,TX, USA. NR 23 TC 26 Z9 26 U1 1 U2 3 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD MAY PY 1995 VL 27 IS 2 BP 604 EP 623 DI 10.2307/2077886 PG 20 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA QY208 UT WOS:A1995QY20800018 ER PT J AU DEBARTOLOME, CAM SPIEGEL, MM AF DEBARTOLOME, CAM SPIEGEL, MM TI REGIONAL COMPETITION FOR DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN-INVESTMENT - EVIDENCE FROM STATE DEVELOPMENT EXPENDITURES SO JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID TAX AB We develop a model in which state governments spend funds on attracting capital with the intent of maximizing the local net wage. Our results suggest that states are likely to spend less on economic development as the state wage level increases, and to spend more on industrial development as the share of manufacturing in the state labor force increases. Empirical tests using state expenditure data confirm the predictions of the model. (C) 1995 Academic Press, Inc. C1 FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO,RES DEPT,SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94105. RP DEBARTOLOME, CAM (reprint author), UNIV COLORADO,DEPT ECON,CAMPUS BOX 256,BOULDER,CO 80309, USA. NR 8 TC 1 Z9 2 U1 1 U2 1 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525B STREET, SUITE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0094-1190 J9 J URBAN ECON JI J. Urban Econ. PD MAY PY 1995 VL 37 IS 3 BP 239 EP 259 DI 10.1006/juec.1995.1013 PG 21 WC Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA QY991 UT WOS:A1995QY99100001 ER PT J AU FIELEKE, NS AF FIELEKE, NS TI THE URUGUAY ROUND OF TRADE NEGOTIATIONS - AN OVERVIEW SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Editorial Material RP FIELEKE, NS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA, USA. NR 10 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 0 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAY-JUN PY 1995 BP 3 EP 14 PG 12 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RE547 UT WOS:A1995RE54700001 ER PT J AU PEEK, J ROSENGREN, ES AF PEEK, J ROSENGREN, ES TI BANK REGULATORY AGREEMENTS IN NEW-ENGLAND SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID CRUNCH RP PEEK, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA, USA. NR 13 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 0 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAY-JUN PY 1995 BP 15 EP 24 PG 10 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RE547 UT WOS:A1995RE54700002 ER PT J AU LITTLE, JS AF LITTLE, JS TI THE IMPACT OF EMPLOYER PAYMENTS FOR HEALTH-INSURANCE AND SOCIAL-SECURITY ON THE PREMIUM FOR EDUCATION AND EARNINGS INEQUALITY SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article RP LITTLE, JS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA, USA. NR 17 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 0 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAY-JUN PY 1995 BP 25 EP 40 PG 16 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RE547 UT WOS:A1995RE54700003 ER PT J AU TANNENWALD, R AF TANNENWALD, R TI DIFFERENCES ACROSS 1ST DISTRICT BANKS IN OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID SCALE RP TANNENWALD, R (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA, USA. NR 22 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAY-JUN PY 1995 BP 41 EP 60 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RE547 UT WOS:A1995RE54700004 ER PT J AU OWENS, RE SCHREFT, SL AF OWENS, RE SCHREFT, SL TI IDENTIFYING CREDIT CRUNCHES SO CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY LA English DT Article AB This article identifies four U.S. credit crunches-periods of sharply increased nonprice credit rationing-between 1960 and 1992. Extreme intimidation of banks by the Federal Reserve and U.S. federal government through jawboning and credible threats of increased regulatory oversight caused the crunches 1966 and 1969. Thus, this article overturns the conventional wisdom that Regulation Q produced the 1960s credit crunches. The 1980 crunch was the unintended effect of direct regulatory limits on credit extensions. More recently, a market-induced crunch occurred from early 1990 through 1992 when a collapse 4 commercial real estate values made pricing risk on real estate-collateralized loans extremely difficult. RP OWENS, RE (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND, RES DEPT, RICHMOND, VA USA. NR 16 TC 9 Z9 9 U1 0 U2 3 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI MALDEN PA COMMERCE PLACE, 350 MAIN ST, MALDEN 02148, MA USA SN 1074-3529 J9 CONTEMP ECON POLICY JI Contemp. Econ. Policy PD APR PY 1995 VL 13 IS 2 BP 63 EP 76 PG 14 WC Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA QV662 UT WOS:A1995QV66200006 ER PT J AU MATSUSAKA, JG SBORDONE, AM AF MATSUSAKA, JG SBORDONE, AM TI CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND ECONOMIC-FLUCTUATIONS SO ECONOMIC INQUIRY LA English DT Article AB If consumers become pessimistic about the state of the economy, can there be a slowdown in output, even if their pessimism is not based on economic fundamentals? Recent macroeconomic models show the answer is yes, if there are ''strategic complementarities'' and multiple equilibria. We investigate the link between consumer confidence and economic fluctuations using vector autoregressions. In all models, after controlling for economic fundamentals, the hypothesis that consumer sentiment does not cause GNP (in the Granger sense) can be rejected. Variance decompositions suggest that consumer sentiment accounts for between 13 and 26 percent of the innovation variance of GNP. C1 UNIV SO CALIF,SCH BUSINESS ADM,DEPT FINACE & BUSINESS ECON,LOS ANGELES,CA 90089. FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,DEPT ECON RES,CHICAGO,IL 60604. RP MATSUSAKA, JG (reprint author), STANFORD UNIV,HOOVER INST,STANFORD,CA 94305, USA. RI Sbordone, Argia/C-1721-2008 NR 30 TC 67 Z9 68 U1 0 U2 12 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 SN 0095-2583 J9 ECON INQ JI Econ. Inq. PD APR PY 1995 VL 33 IS 2 BP 296 EP 318 PG 23 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QV730 UT WOS:A1995QV73000010 ER PT J AU DUCA, JV AF DUCA, JV TI SHOULD BOND FUNDS BE ADDED TO M2 SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE BOND FUNDS; M2; MONETARY POLICY ID DEMAND; MONEY AB In the early 1990s, M2 growth has been weaker than estimated while bond mutual funds have grown rapidly, This study assesses whether adding bond funds to M2 would yield a monetary aggregate that is more explainable using a standard error correction model of money with and without modifications for bond interest rate and thrift resolution effects. Results indicate that it is important to net out institutional and IRA/Keogh assets from bond funds (as is done for M2) and that adding such a bond fund series to M2 results in an aggregate that is somewhat more explainable than M2. RP DUCA, JV (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,RES DEPT,POB 655906,DALLAS,TX 75265, USA. NR 20 TC 11 Z9 11 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD APR PY 1995 VL 19 IS 1 BP 131 EP 152 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(94)00057-A PG 22 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA QZ019 UT WOS:A1995QZ01900008 ER PT J AU NEUMARK, D WASCHER, W AF NEUMARK, D WASCHER, W TI MINIMUM-WAGE EFFECTS ON EMPLOYMENT AND SCHOOL ENROLLMENT SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS LA English DT Article DE MINIMUM WAGES; SCHOOL ENROLLMENT; YOUTH EMPLOYMENT ID UNEMPLOYMENT AB We argue in this article that the focus on employment effects in recent studies of minimum wages ignores an important interaction between schooling, employment, and the minimum wage. To study these linkages, we estimate a conditional logit model of employment and enrollment outcomes for teenagers using state-year observations for the period 1977 to 1989. The results show a negative influence of minimum wages on school enrollment and a positive effect on the proportion of teens neither employed nor in school. We further suggest that our results are consistent with substitution by employers of higher- for lower-skilled teenagers, with the displaced teens ending up both out of work and out of school. C1 NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP NEUMARK, D (reprint author), MICHIGAN STATE UNIV,DEPT ECON,E LANSING,MI 48824, USA. NR 21 TC 30 Z9 31 U1 0 U2 5 PU AMER STATIST ASSN PI ALEXANDRIA PA 1429 DUKE ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 SN 0735-0015 J9 J BUS ECON STAT JI J. Bus. Econ. Stat. PD APR PY 1995 VL 13 IS 2 BP 199 EP 206 DI 10.2307/1392374 PG 8 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Mathematics GA QT931 UT WOS:A1995QT93100008 ER PT J AU ROGERS, JH WANG, P AF ROGERS, JH WANG, P TI OUTPUT, INFLATION, AND STABILIZATION IN A SMALL OPEN-ECONOMY - EVIDENCE FROM MEXICO SO JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE INFLATION STABILIZATION; FISCAL IMBALANCES; VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION ID CURRENCY SUBSTITUTION; EXCHANGE; DEMAND AB We study the sources of fluctuation in output and inflation for Mexico, considering fiscal, real, money growth, exchange rate, and asset market disturbances, which are identified using an estimable equilibrium model incorporating important features of high-inflation economies. Changes in inflation are influenced by all shocks, while output growth is explained by real, fiscal, and asset shocks. The results lend strong support to the fiscal view of inflation, and to a lesser degree support the balance of payments view. We also find that higher inflation and higher budget deficits cause each other to spiral upward. C1 PENN STATE UNIV,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,RES DEPT,DALLAS,TX. RP ROGERS, JH (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNERS,INT FINANCE DIV,MAIL STOP 22,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 26 TC 21 Z9 21 U1 0 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3878 J9 J DEV ECON JI J. Dev. Econ. PD APR PY 1995 VL 46 IS 2 BP 271 EP 293 DI 10.1016/0304-3878(94)00064-J PG 23 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RF087 UT WOS:A1995RF08700004 ER PT J AU SPIEGEL, MM AF SPIEGEL, MM TI THRESHOLD EFFECTS IN INTERNATIONAL LENDING SO JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE INTERNATIONAL DEBT; INCREASING RETURNS; GROWTH ID GROWTH; RISK AB A growth model of international borrowing subject to a credit constraint is developed for an economy with increasing returns to capital. Unlike constant-returns models, the equilibrium credit constraint as a share of the capital stock is increasing in the capital stock. Increasing returns also enhance the potential for 'long-term' lending strategies, which may be related to rescheduling and concerted lending. Using simulations with parameter values that do not favor these strategies under constant returns, we show that a long-term lending strategy may dominate a myopic lending strategy. RP SPIEGEL, MM (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO,DEPT ECON RES,101 MARKET ST,SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94105, USA. NR 16 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3878 J9 J DEV ECON JI J. Dev. Econ. PD APR PY 1995 VL 46 IS 2 BP 341 EP 356 DI 10.1016/0304-3878(94)00067-M PG 16 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RF087 UT WOS:A1995RF08700007 ER PT J AU BRAUN, RA EVANS, CL AF BRAUN, RA EVANS, CL TI SEASONALITY AND EQUILIBRIUM BUSINESS-CYCLE THEORIES SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article DE SEASONALITY; SOLOW RESIDUALS; REAL BUSINESS CYCLE ID FLUCTUATIONS; MODELS; TIME; PRODUCTIVITY AB We consider a dynamic, stochastic equilibrium business cycle model which is augmented to reflect seasonal shifts in preferences, technology, and government purchases. Our estimated parameterization implies implausibly large seasonal variation in the state of technology: rising at an annual rate of 24% in the fourth quarter and falling at an annual rate of 28% in the first quarter. Furthermore, our findings indicate that variation in the state of technology of this magnitude is required if the model is to explain the main features of the seasonal cycle. C1 FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,RES DEPT,CHICAGO,IL 60604. RP BRAUN, RA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55401, USA. NR 39 TC 21 Z9 21 U1 1 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD APR PY 1995 VL 19 IS 3 BP 503 EP 531 DI 10.1016/0165-1889(93)00792-3 PG 29 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QD043 UT WOS:A1995QD04300003 ER PT J AU GREENWOOD, J HUFFMAN, GW AF GREENWOOD, J HUFFMAN, GW TI ON THE EXISTENCE OF NONOPTIMAL EQUILIBRIA IN DYNAMIC-STOCHASTIC ECONOMIES SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Note ID BUSINESS-CYCLE; GROWTH-MODEL; INFLATION; MONEY AB The question of the existence of a stationary equilibrium for distorted versions of the standard neo-classical growth model is addressed in this paper. The conditions presented guaranteeing the existence of nontrivial equilibrium for the class of economies under study are simple and intuitively appealing, while the existence proof developed is elementary. Examples are given illustrating that economies with distortional taxation, endogenous growth with externalities, and monopolistic competition can all fit into the framework developed. (C) 1995 Academic Press, Inc. C1 SO METHODIST UNIV,DEPT ECON,DALLAS,TX 75275. FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,RES DEPT,DALLAS,TX 75222. RP GREENWOOD, J (reprint author), UNIV ROCHESTER,DEPT ECON,ROCHESTER,NY 14627, USA. NR 17 TC 28 Z9 28 U1 0 U2 0 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525B STREET, SUITE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0022-0531 J9 J ECON THEORY JI J. Econ. Theory PD APR PY 1995 VL 65 IS 2 BP 611 EP 623 DI 10.1006/jeth.1995.1024 PG 13 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QW423 UT WOS:A1995QW42300014 ER PT J AU GAGNON, JE KNETTER, MM AF GAGNON, JE KNETTER, MM TI MARKUP ADJUSTMENT AND EXCHANGE-RATE FLUCTUATIONS - EVIDENCE FROM PANEL-DATA ON AUTOMOBILE EXPORTS SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE LA English DT Article ID PRICING-TO-MARKET; UNITED-STATES; PASS-THROUGH; BEHAVIOR; COSTS AB This paper uses data on bilateral automobile export prices from the USA, Germany and japan to gauge the importance of markup adjustment driven by exchange rate movements across several destination markets. We find that Japanese exports are characterized by a high degree of markup adjustment designed to stabilize the price measured in the buyer's currency. There is weak evidence for such behavior on the part of German exporters and no evidence of markup adjustment by US exporters. Where it exists, markup adjustment tends to be highly persistent. The dynamic pattern of markup adjustment is consistent with invoicing in the exporter's currency except for exports to the USA and Canada. (JEL F12, F14). C1 DARTMOUTH COLL,DEPT ECON,HANOVER,NH 03755. RP GAGNON, JE (reprint author), BOARD GOVERNORS FED RESERVE SYST,WASHINGTON,DC 20051, USA. NR 23 TC 75 Z9 76 U1 1 U2 5 PU BUTTERWORTH-HEINEMANN LTD PI OXFORD PA LINACRE HOUSE JORDAN HILL, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX2 8DP SN 0261-5606 J9 J INT MONEY FINANC JI J. Int. Money Finan. PD APR PY 1995 VL 14 IS 2 BP 289 EP 310 DI 10.1016/0261-5606(94)00004-K PG 22 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA QV488 UT WOS:A1995QV48800008 ER PT J AU RUDEBUSCH, GD AF RUDEBUSCH, GD TI FEDERAL-RESERVE INTEREST-RATE TARGETING, RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS, AND THE TERM STRUCTURE SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Federal Reserve Conference CY JUN 18-19, 1992 CL ST LOUIS, MO DE TERM STRUCTURE; RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS; FEDERAL RESERVE ID FUNDS RATE; INFORMATION; MARKET AB The amount of information in the yield curve for forecasting future changes in short rates varies with the maturity of the rates involved. Indeed, spreads between certain long and short rates appear unrelated to future changes in the short rate - contrary to the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure. This paper estimates a daily model of Federal Reserve interest rate targeting behavior, which, accompanied by the maintained hypothesis of rational expectations, explains the varying predictive ability of the yield curve and elucidates the link between Fed policy and the term structure. RP RUDEBUSCH, GD (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO,ECON RES DEPT,SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94105, USA. NR 38 TC 146 Z9 147 U1 0 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD APR PY 1995 VL 35 IS 2 BP 245 EP 274 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(95)01190-Y PG 30 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA RF994 UT WOS:A1995RF99400001 ER PT J AU HASLAG, JH HEIN, SE AF HASLAG, JH HEIN, SE TI DOES IT MATTER HOW MONETARY-POLICY IS IMPLEMENTED SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE MONETARY BASE; RESERVE REQUIREMENTS; STRUCTURAL VAR; SUFFICIENT STATISTIC ID TRENDS AB In the U.S., existing monetary base measures add an adjustment factor for changes in reserve requirement ratios to high powered money. Implicitly, the monetary base assumes that the economic effects of changes in reserve requirements are identical to those due to changes in high-powered money. Theory, however, does not generally support the prediction that the two policy tools will have the same economic effects. Structural VARs are estimated to compare the short-run paths of inflation and output growth under two different types of policy shocks. In doing so, this analysis gives one a measure of the costs associated with this implicit equivalence assumption. The evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that the Federal Reserve at least partially offsets reserve requirement changes with open market operations and the hypothesis that dynamic explanations of macroeconomic variables are improved by separating reserve requirement changes from other monetary policy moves. C1 TEXAS TECH UNIV,LUBBOCK,TX 79409. RP HASLAG, JH (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,RES DEPT,DALLAS,TX 75222, USA. NR 22 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD APR PY 1995 VL 35 IS 2 BP 359 EP 386 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(95)01191-P PG 28 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA RF994 UT WOS:A1995RF99400006 ER PT J AU COLE, HL AF COLE, HL TI ARISTOCRATIC EQUILIBRIA SO JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Note C1 UNIV PENN,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. RP COLE, HL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN, USA. NR 2 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 2 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0022-3808 J9 J POLIT ECON JI J. Polit. Econ. PD APR PY 1995 VL 103 IS 2 BP 439 EP 443 DI 10.1086/261990 PG 5 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QU104 UT WOS:A1995QU10400009 ER PT J AU GAGNON, JE ROSE, AK AF GAGNON, JE ROSE, AK TI DYNAMIC PERSISTENCE OF INDUSTRY TRADE BALANCES - HOW PERVASIVE IS THE PRODUCT CYCLE SO OXFORD ECONOMIC PAPERS-NEW SERIES LA English DT Article ID GAP AB This paper looks for dynamic patterns in international trade flows using comprehensive multilateral data for six countries, disaggregated to the four-digit SITC level. The purpose of the paper is to compare predictions of persistent trade balances generated by theories of international trade such as factor-proportions, with more dynamic theories such as the product cycle. Little evidence is found of dynamic trade behavior at the industry level between 1962 and 1990 for Brazil, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Rather, goods that begin the sample in surplus (deficit) almost always remain in surplus (deficit) throughout the sample. C1 UNIV CALIF BERKELEY,SCH BUSINESS ADM,BERKELEY,CA 94720. OECD,HALDEN,NORWAY. LONDON BUSINESS SCH,LONDON NW1 4SA,ENGLAND. LONDON SCH ECON,LONDON,ENGLAND. RP GAGNON, JE (reprint author), UNIV CALIF BERKELEY,FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV INT FINANCE,BERKELEY,CA 94720, USA. RI Rose, Andrew/I-1578-2014 OI Rose, Andrew/0000-0003-1100-1212 NR 20 TC 16 Z9 16 U1 0 U2 0 PU OXFORD UNIV PRESS UNITED KINGDOM PI OXFORD PA WALTON ST JOURNALS DEPT, OXFORD, ENGLAND OX2 6DP SN 0030-7653 J9 OXFORD ECON PAP JI Oxf. Econ. Pap.-New Ser. PD APR PY 1995 VL 47 IS 2 BP 229 EP 248 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QT340 UT WOS:A1995QT34000003 ER PT J AU CLARK, TE AF CLARK, TE TI RENTS AND PRICES OF HOUSING ACROSS AREAS OF THE UNITED-STATES - A CROSS-SECTION EXAMINATION OF THE PRESENT VALUE MODEL SO REGIONAL SCIENCE AND URBAN ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE HOUSING; PRICES; RENTS; PRESENT VALUE MODEL ID BABY BOOM; MARKET; BUST AB This study examines whether regional variation in housing rents and prices is consistent with the general forward-looking behavior of the present value model. According to the model, the rent-price ratio will be high in areas where expected future rent growth is low. Decennial census data by tracts permit testing of a simple, low-frequency formulation of this hypothesis: across areas the initial rent-price ratio should have predictive power for rent growth between the censuses. Estimates confirm this hypothesis. At low frequencies, the forward-looking behavior of the present value model appears to be important in housing valuation. RP CLARK, TE (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK KANSAS CITY,DIV RES,925 GRAND BLVD,KANSAS CITY,MO 64198, USA. NR 10 TC 14 Z9 15 U1 1 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0166-0462 J9 REG SCI URBAN ECON JI Reg. Sci. Urban Econ. PD APR PY 1995 VL 25 IS 2 BP 237 EP 247 DI 10.1016/0166-0462(94)02066-P PG 11 WC Economics; Environmental Studies; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Urban Studies GA QN333 UT WOS:A1995QN33300006 ER PT J AU FERNANDEZ, R ROGERSON, R AF FERNANDEZ, R ROGERSON, R TI ON THE POLITICAL-ECONOMY OF EDUCATION SUBSIDIES SO REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES LA English DT Article ID INCOME-DISTRIBUTION; EQUILIBRIUM; GOVERNMENT; REFORM; GROWTH AB Standard models of public education provision predict an implicit transfer of resources from higher-income individuals toward lower-income individuals. Many studies have documented that public higher education involves a transfer in the reverse direction. We show that this pattern of redistribution is an equilibrium outcome in a model in which education is only partially publicly provided and individuals vote over the extent to which it is subsidized. We characterize economies in which poorer individuals are effectively excluded from obtaining an education and their tax payments help offset the cost of education obtained by others. We show that increased inequality in the income distribution makes this outcome more likely and that the efficiency implications of this exclusion depend on the wealth of the economy. C1 NBER,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. RP FERNANDEZ, R (reprint author), BOSTON UNIV,BOSTON,MA 02215, USA. NR 32 TC 90 Z9 93 U1 0 U2 8 PU REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES LTD PI OXFORD PA C/O BASIL BLACKWELL LTD 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX4 1JF SN 0034-6527 J9 REV ECON STUD JI Rev. Econ. Stud. PD APR PY 1995 VL 62 IS 2 BP 249 EP 262 DI 10.2307/2297804 PG 14 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QZ938 UT WOS:A1995QZ93800004 ER PT J AU EVANOFF, DD ISRAILEVICH, PR AF EVANOFF, DD ISRAILEVICH, PR TI SCALE ELASTICITY VERSUS SCALE EFFICIENCY IN BANKING SO SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 DE PAUL UNIV,CHICAGO,IL 60614. UNIV ILLINOIS,URBANA,IL 61801. RP EVANOFF, DD (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL, USA. NR 29 TC 5 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 1 PU UNIV NORTH CAROLINA PI CHAPEL HILL PA SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, CHAPEL HILL, NC 27514 SN 0038-4038 J9 SOUTHERN ECON J JI South. Econ. J. PD APR PY 1995 VL 61 IS 4 BP 1036 EP 1046 DI 10.2307/1060739 PG 11 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QQ953 UT WOS:A1995QQ95300009 ER PT J AU CALEM, PS RIZZO, JA AF CALEM, PS RIZZO, JA TI COMPETITION AND SPECIALIZATION IN THE HOSPITAL INDUSTRY - AN APPLICATION OF HOTELLING LOCATION MODEL SO SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 YALE UNIV,SCH MED,NEW HAVEN,CT 06510. RP CALEM, PS (reprint author), FED RES BANK PHILADELPHIA,PHILADELPHIA,PA, USA. NR 29 TC 19 Z9 19 U1 0 U2 2 PU UNIV NORTH CAROLINA PI CHAPEL HILL PA SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, CHAPEL HILL, NC 27514 SN 0038-4038 J9 SOUTHERN ECON J JI South. Econ. J. PD APR PY 1995 VL 61 IS 4 BP 1182 EP 1198 DI 10.2307/1060749 PG 17 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QQ953 UT WOS:A1995QQ95300019 ER PT J AU STARRMCCLUER, M AF STARRMCCLUER, M TI AUTOBIOGRAPHICAL MEMORY AND THE VALIDITY OF RETROSPECTIVE REPORTS - SCHWARZ,N, SUDMAN,S SO SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL LA English DT Book Review RP STARRMCCLUER, M (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC, USA. NR 3 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU UNIV NORTH CAROLINA PI CHAPEL HILL PA SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, CHAPEL HILL, NC 27514 SN 0038-4038 J9 SOUTHERN ECON J JI South. Econ. J. PD APR PY 1995 VL 61 IS 4 BP 1259 EP 1260 DI 10.2307/1060776 PG 2 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QQ953 UT WOS:A1995QQ95300046 ER PT J AU GOODFRIEND, M MCDERMOTT, J AF GOODFRIEND, M MCDERMOTT, J TI EARLY DEVELOPMENT SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID ECONOMIC-DEVELOPMENT; GROWTH AB Long-term economic development involves four fundamental processes: the exploitation of increasing returns to specialization, the transition from household to market production, knowledge and human-capital accumulation, and industrialization. This paper integrates these processes into a coherent framework for thinking about economic history. Pre-industrial development is driven by increasing returns to specialization made possible by a growing population. Increasing specialization eventually activates a learning technology and initiates industrial growth, which carries the economy to a fully market-based balanced-growth path. Among other things, we attribute a role to population and market size that is consistent with the evidence. C1 UNIV S CAROLINA,DEPT ECON,COLUMBIA,SC 29208. RP GOODFRIEND, M (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND,RES DEPT,RICHMOND,VA 23261, USA. NR 31 TC 78 Z9 82 U1 1 U2 7 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAR PY 1995 VL 85 IS 1 BP 116 EP 133 PG 18 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QN472 UT WOS:A1995QN47200007 ER PT J AU RITTER, JA AF RITTER, JA TI THE TRANSITION FROM BARTER TO FIAT MONEY SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID FUNCTIONAL EQUIVALENCE; EXCHANGE; UTILITY AB How did it become possible to exchange apparently valueless pieces of paper for goods? This paper provides an equilibrium account of the transition between barter and fiat-money regimes. The explanation relies on the intervention of a self-interested government which must be able to promise credibly to limit the issue of money. To achieve credibility, the government must offset the benefits of seigniorage by internalizing some of the macroeconomic externalities generated by the issue of fiat money. The government's patience and the extent of its involvement in the economy are key determinants of whether the transition can be accomplished. RP RITTER, JA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ST LOUIS,RES DEPT,POB 442,ST LOUIS,MO 63116, USA. NR 17 TC 32 Z9 34 U1 0 U2 5 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAR PY 1995 VL 85 IS 1 BP 134 EP 149 PG 16 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QN472 UT WOS:A1995QN47200008 ER PT J AU WALSH, CE AF WALSH, CE TI OPTIMAL-CONTRACTS FOR CENTRAL BANKERS SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID MONETARY-POLICY; PRIVATE INFORMATION; RULES AB This paper adopts a principal-agent framework to determine how a central banket's incentives should be structured to induce the socially optimal policy. Im contrast to previous findings using ad hoc targeting rules, the inflation bias of discretionary policy is eliminated and an optimal response to shocks is achieved by the optimal incentive contract, even in the presence of private central-bank information. In the one-period model that has formed the basis for much of the literature on discretionary monetary policy, it is shown that the optimal contract ties the rewards of the central banker to realized inflation. C1 FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO,ECON RES,SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94120. RP WALSH, CE (reprint author), UNIV CALIF SANTA CRUZ,DEPT ECON,SANTA CRUZ,CA 95064, USA. NR 20 TC 337 Z9 348 U1 1 U2 6 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAR PY 1995 VL 85 IS 1 BP 150 EP 167 PG 18 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QN472 UT WOS:A1995QN47200009 ER PT J AU FUHRER, JC MOORE, GR AF FUHRER, JC MOORE, GR TI MONETARY-POLICY TRADE-OFFS AND THE CORRELATION BETWEEN NOMINAL INTEREST-RATES AND REAL OUTPUT SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID COINTEGRATION; TRENDS AB We present a structural model of the U.S. economy that combines our price-contracting specification with a term-structure relationship, an aggregate demand curve, and a monetary-policy reaction function. The model matches important features of postwar data well and provides a structural explanation of the correlation between real output and the short-term nominal rate of interest. We perform a battery of monetary-policy experiments which show that, as viewed through the lens of this model, monetary policy has struck a good balance recently among competing monetary-policy objectives. RP FUHRER, JC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,600 ATLANTIC AVE,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. RI Fuhrer, Jeff/F-8852-2013 NR 26 TC 120 Z9 124 U1 1 U2 5 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAR PY 1995 VL 85 IS 1 BP 219 EP 239 PG 21 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QN472 UT WOS:A1995QN47200013 ER PT J AU KEANE, MP RUNKLE, DE AF KEANE, MP RUNKLE, DE TI TESTING THE RATIONALITY OF PRICE FORECASTS - REPLY SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article C1 FED RESSERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. RP KEANE, MP (reprint author), UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455, USA. RI Keane, Michael/O-2840-2013 OI Keane, Michael/0000-0002-3918-1377 NR 3 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 4 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAR PY 1995 VL 85 IS 1 BP 290 EP 290 PG 1 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QN472 UT WOS:A1995QN47200020 ER PT J AU CHIRINKO, RS AF CHIRINKO, RS TI NONCONVEXITIES, LABOR HOARDING, TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS, AND PROCYCLICAL PRODUCTIVITY - A STRUCTURAL ECONOMETRIC-ANALYSIS SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS LA English DT Article DE PRODUCTIVITY; ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS; INVESTMENT; DYNAMIC MODELS ID BUSINESS-CYCLE; UNITED-STATES; TIME-SERIES; PRICES; BEHAVIOR; MODELS; DEMAND; COSTS AB This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of the firm that contains three methodological innovations: 1) new restrictions from the firm's optimization problem are exploited, 2) information from transversality conditions is incorporated in a tractable manner, 3) asset prices (the Brainard-Tobin Q) are integrated into an econometric framework in which there are nonconstant returns and noncompetitive markets. This structural model is used to examine the persistent empirical fact of the procyclical productivity of labor, which has been of much recent concern to macroeconomists and is subject to a number of different explanations-labor hoarding, technology shocks, or a nonconvex technology. The evidence favors the latter explanation. C1 FED RESERVE BANK,ECON RES DEPT,KANSAS CITY,MO 64198. RP CHIRINKO, RS (reprint author), EMORY UNIV,DEPT ECON,ATLANTA,GA 30322, USA. NR 49 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 3 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0304-4076 J9 J ECONOMETRICS JI J. Econom. PD MAR-APR PY 1995 VL 66 IS 1-2 BP 61 EP 98 DI 10.1016/0304-4076(94)01608-3 PG 38 WC Economics; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA QL206 UT WOS:A1995QL20600003 ER PT J AU NOE, TH RAMAMURTIE, BS AF NOE, TH RAMAMURTIE, BS TI INFORMATION QUALITY, PERFORMANCE-MEASUREMENT, AND SECURITY DEMAND IN RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS ECONOMIES SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Note ID MARKET LINE; EQUILIBRIUM AB The relationship between asset demand and information quality in rational expectations economies is analyzed. First we derive a number of new summary descriptive statistics that measure four basic characteristics of investment style: asset selection, market timing, aggressiveness, and specialization. Then we relate these statistics to the divergence between a given investor's information structure and the market average information structure. Finally, we demonstrate that informational differentials can be identified, and consistently estimated, using ordinary least squares, from the time-series of observed asset demand. C1 FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,ATLANTA,GA. RP NOE, TH (reprint author), GEORGIA STATE UNIV,ATLANTA,GA 30303, USA. NR 12 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 3 PU AMER FINANCE ASSN PI NEW YORK PA 44 WEST FOURTH ST, STE 9-190, NEW YORK, NY 10012 SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD MAR PY 1995 VL 50 IS 1 BP 341 EP 359 DI 10.2307/2329249 PG 19 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA QN529 UT WOS:A1995QN52900013 ER PT J AU DUFFEE, GR AF DUFFEE, GR TI STOCK RETURNS AND VOLATILITY - A FIRM-LEVEL ANALYSIS SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE VOLATILITY; LEVERAGE EFFECT; SELECTION BIAS ID HETEROSKEDASTICITY; SIZE AB It has been previously documented that individual firms' stock return volatility rises after stock prices fall. This paper finds that this statistical relation is largely due to a positive contemporaneous relation between firm stock returns and firm stock return volatility. This positive relation is strongest for both small firms and firms with little financial leverage. At the aggregate level, the sign of this contemporaneous relation is reversed. The reasons for the difference between the aggregate- and firm-level relations are explored. RP DUFFEE, GR (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 17 TC 83 Z9 85 U1 2 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0304-405X J9 J FINANC ECON JI J. Financ. Econ. PD MAR PY 1995 VL 37 IS 3 BP 399 EP 420 DI 10.1016/0304-405X(94)00801-7 PG 22 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA QG928 UT WOS:A1995QG92800005 ER PT J AU GUNTHER, JW LOWN, CS ROBINSON, KJ AF GUNTHER, JW LOWN, CS ROBINSON, KJ TI BANK CREDIT AND ECONOMIC-ACTIVITY - EVIDENCE FROM THE TEXAS BANKING DECLINE SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Article ID GREAT-DEPRESSION; REALITY AB In the latter half of the 1980s, banking difficulties were concentrated in Texas. Because of the magnitude of these financial difficulties, interest has focused on whether an alleged inability or unwillingness of Texas banks to extend loans hampered economic growth in the state. Using various measures of banking-sector activity and economic activity in Texas over the period 1976:I-1990:IV, a structural VAR model of the Texas economy is estimated. Variance decompositions measure the interdependence of the banking and real sectors of the economy. Our results indicate a strong effect from the real sector to the financial sector. We find little evidence, though, that the deterioration observed in the Texas banking sector contributed to reduced economic growth. C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,RES DEPT,NEW YORK,NY 10045. RP GUNTHER, JW (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,DEPT FINANCIAL IND STUDIES,2200 N PEARL ST,DALLAS,TX 75201, USA. NR 22 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 2 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD MAR PY 1995 VL 9 IS 1 BP 31 EP 48 DI 10.1007/BF01051962 PG 18 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA QM100 UT WOS:A1995QM10000002 ER PT J AU BREWER, E AF BREWER, E TI THE IMPACT OF DEPOSIT INSURANCE ON SAVINGS-AND-LOAN SHAREHOLDERS RISK RETURN TRADE-OFFS SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Article ID FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS; CAPITAL REGULATION; STOCK RETURNS; COSTS AB This article empirically examines how savings and loan associations' (S&Ls') stock returns respond to asset mix changes. When deposit insurance is underpriced, increases in financial leverage and the riskiness of the asset portfolio should lead to increases in expected return on common stock. In particular, changes in asset components which increase the volatility of an institution's portfolio should lead the stock market to upwardly revalue S&L equity. This hypothesis is examined using data for the July 1984-December 1989 period. Increases in commercial mortgage loans, acquisition and development loans, and investments in service corporations appear to cause higher return for shareholders of poorly capitalized, failing S&Ls. Similar increases appear to have little impact on the common stock returns of well-capitalized S&Ls. C1 FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL. RP BREWER, E (reprint author), UNIV ILLINOIS,DEPT FINANCE,CHAMPAIGN,IL 61820, USA. NR 37 TC 19 Z9 20 U1 1 U2 4 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD MAR PY 1995 VL 9 IS 1 BP 65 EP 89 DI 10.1007/BF01051964 PG 25 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA QM100 UT WOS:A1995QM10000004 ER PT J AU WORTHINGTON, PR AF WORTHINGTON, PR TI INVESTMENT, CASH FLOW, AND SUNK COSTS SO JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID CONSTRAINTS; DEBT AB This paper's analysis of US manufacturing industries confirms previous research showing that cash flow and investment spending are positively correlated, even after controlling for investment demand, and it makes two new points as well: firstly, that the effect of cash flow on investment is greater for durable goods industries than for nondurable goods industries, and secondly, that cash flow's effect is significantly larger in industries with high sunk costs than in those with low sunk costs. The latter finding suggests that external financing of capital investment is more difficult when the assets being financed are highly specific or are ''sunk''. RP WORTHINGTON, PR (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,ECON RES DEPT,230 S LASALLE ST,CHICAGO,IL 60604, USA. NR 20 TC 17 Z9 17 U1 0 U2 0 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX4 1JF SN 0022-1821 J9 J IND ECON JI J. Indust. Econ. PD MAR PY 1995 VL 43 IS 1 BP 49 EP 61 DI 10.2307/2950424 PG 13 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA QJ244 UT WOS:A1995QJ24400003 ER PT J AU TAYLOR, LL AF TAYLOR, LL TI ALLOCATIVE INEFFICIENCY AND LOCAL-GOVERNMENT SO JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS LA English DT Article AB J. K. Brueckner (Journal of Public Economics, 19, 311-331, 1992; 11, 223-245, 1979) demonstrated that hedonic estimates of property values can be used to test for allocative efficiency in local government. However, previous applications of his technique have incorporated data from multiple labor markets, introducing the possibility that governmental amenities might have been capitalized into wage differentials rather than property values. This analysis applies his approach to data from a single metropolitan area. The estimation suggests that local governments do not systematically overprovide any public services and may underprovide highway services. (C) 1995 Academic Press, Inc. RP TAYLOR, LL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,RES DEPT,POB 655906,DALLAS,TX 75265, USA. NR 13 TC 11 Z9 11 U1 0 U2 2 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525B STREET, SUITE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0094-1190 J9 J URBAN ECON JI J. Urban Econ. PD MAR PY 1995 VL 37 IS 2 BP 201 EP 211 DI 10.1006/juec.1995.1011 PG 11 WC Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA QN809 UT WOS:A1995QN80900004 ER PT J AU KODRZYCKI, YK AF KODRZYCKI, YK TI THE COSTS OF DEFENSE-RELATED LAYOFFS IN NEW-ENGLAND SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID EARNINGS AB Since the late 1980s, declines in defense spending have resulted in dramatic employment reductions in defense-related sectors of the economy. Although considerable information exists on the fate of major defense contractors and military bases in New England, little is known about what has happened to laid-off defense workers. This article starts by estimating the magnitude of defense-related employment reductions in New England since the late 1980s. It then examines the experiences of a sample of approximately 5,000 former defense workers who looked for a new job following their layoffs. The research confirms that the region's work force has suffered considerably as a result of defense cutbacks. The problems are most severe for older workers and those without a college degree, as well as workers located in areas of New England that remain economically disadvantaged despite the employment recovery that began in 1992. RP KODRZYCKI, YK (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA, USA. NR 15 TC 9 Z9 9 U1 1 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAR-APR PY 1995 BP 3 EP 23 PG 21 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QX667 UT WOS:A1995QX66700001 ER PT J AU FUHRER, JC AF FUHRER, JC TI THE PHILLIPS-CURVE IS ALIVE AND WELL SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Rumors of the death of the Phillips curve appear to have been greatly exaggerated. In fact, the Phillips curve is alive and well, and living in a good number of (although certainly not all) widely used macroeconometric models. The author takes the view that the primary reason for its longevity is that the Phillips curve has been an extremely robust empirical relationship, showing little or no sign of instability over the past 35 years. He examines an array of empirical evidence and finds that the Phillips curve has exhibited remarkable stability, even across data for what must be the most dramatic shift in monetary policy regime since World War II. To outward appearances, at least, the Phillips curve is as structural a relationship as macroeconomists have ever had at their disposal. RP FUHRER, JC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA, USA. RI Fuhrer, Jeff/F-8852-2013 NR 14 TC 39 Z9 40 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAR-APR PY 1995 BP 41 EP 56 PG 16 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QX667 UT WOS:A1995QX66700003 ER PT J AU DEKLE, R AF DEKLE, R TI PLANNING FOR CHANGE - VESTAL,J SO POLITICAL SCIENCE QUARTERLY LA English DT Book Review RP DEKLE, R (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ACAD POLITICAL SCIENCE PI NEW YORK PA 475 RIVERSIDE DRIVE, SUITE 1274, NEW YORK, NY 10115-1274 SN 0032-3195 J9 POLIT SCI QUART JI Polit. Sci. Q. PD SPR PY 1995 VL 110 IS 1 BP 140 EP 141 DI 10.2307/2152067 PG 2 WC Political Science SC Government & Law GA QZ076 UT WOS:A1995QZ07600020 ER PT J AU NELLING, EF MAHONEY, JM HILDEBRAND, TL GOLDSTEIN, MA AF NELLING, EF MAHONEY, JM HILDEBRAND, TL GOLDSTEIN, MA TI REAL-ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS, SMALL STOCKS AND BID-ASK SPREADS SO REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID MARKET; RETURNS; DEALER; REITS; RISK; SIZE AB This study examines the liquidity of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), as measured by their bid-ask spread. We find that REIT spreads have increased over the period 1986-1990, are inversely related to market capitalization, and are similar in magnitude to spreads on other stocks of comparable size. Analysis of variance tests indicate that REIT spreads are similar across equity, mortgage and hybrid asset types. Multivariate regression results indicate that market capitalization is the primary determinant of REIT bid-ask spreads, and spreads are larger for National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ) REITs than for New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) REITs. The regression results also indicate that spreads are lower for equity REITs than for mortgage or hybrid REITs, and are inversely related to the fraction of the REIT's shares held by institutional investors. The similarity between REIT spreads and those of other common stocks holds in both bull and bear real estate markers and suggests that, from a liquidity perspective, REITs are similar to other common stocks. C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045. UNIV PENN,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. UNIV COLORADO,BOULDER,CO 80309. RP NELLING, EF (reprint author), GEORGIA INST TECHNOL,ATLANTA,GA 30332, USA. NR 19 TC 10 Z9 10 U1 1 U2 2 PU AMER REAL ESTATE URBAN ECONOMICS ASSOC PI BLOOMINGTON PA INDIANA UNIV, SCHOOL BUSINESS, RM 428, 10TH FEE LANE, BLOOMINGTON, IN 47405 SN 1080-8620 J9 REAL ESTATE ECON JI Real Estate Econ. PD SPR PY 1995 VL 23 IS 1 BP 45 EP 63 DI 10.1111/1540-6229.00657 PG 19 WC Business, Finance; Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA RJ858 UT WOS:A1995RJ85800003 ER PT J AU Hamilton, EG AF Hamilton, EG TI Economic restructuring and emerging patterns of industrial relations - Sleigh,SR SO REVIEW OF BLACK POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Book Review RP Hamilton, EG (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,OFF FED RESERVE SYST,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU NATL ECON ASSN ATLANTA UNIV CENTER PI ATLANTA PA 360 WESTVIEW DR SW, ATLANTA, GA 30310 SN 0034-6446 J9 REV BLACK POLIT ECON JI Rev. Black Polit. Econ. PD SPR PY 1995 VL 23 IS 4 BP 101 EP 109 DI 10.1007/BF02689915 PG 9 WC Economics; Ethnic Studies SC Business & Economics; Ethnic Studies GA UC070 UT WOS:A1995UC07000009 ER PT J AU DUNNE, T SCHMITZ, JA AF DUNNE, T SCHMITZ, JA TI WAGES, EMPLOYMENT STRUCTURE AND EMPLOYER SIZE WAGE PREMIA - THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO ADVANCED-TECHNOLOGY USAGE AT UNITED-STATES MANUFACTURING ESTABLISHMENTS SO ECONOMICA LA English DT Article AB A common theme in the labour economics literature is that use of advanced technology in production requires a skilled and educated workforce. Using a new survey of production processes at US manufacturing plants, we ask whether plants that employ advanced technology require a skilled workforce. We find that plants that use the most advanced technology pay the highest wages and employ the greatest fraction of non-production workers (who are generally regarded as more skilled than production workers). The inclusion in standard wage regressions of variables that indicate the use of advanced technology reduces the size-wage premia by as much as 60% for some size categories. C1 UNIV OKLAHOMA,NORMAN,OK 73019. SUNY STONY BROOK,STONY BROOK,NY 11794. FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. NR 22 TC 44 Z9 46 U1 1 U2 3 PU ECONOMICA PUBL OFFICE PI LONDON PA LONDON SCH OF ECON & POLIT SCI HOUGHTON ST, LONDON, ENGLAND WC2A 2AE SN 0013-0427 J9 ECONOMICA JI Economica PD FEB PY 1995 VL 62 IS 245 BP 89 EP 107 DI 10.2307/2554777 PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QL677 UT WOS:A1995QL67700004 ER PT J AU MARQUIS, MH REFFETT, KL AF MARQUIS, MH REFFETT, KL TI THE INFLATION TAX IN A CONVEX MODEL OF EQUILIBRIUM GROWTH SO ECONOMICA LA English DT Article ID ENDOGENOUS GROWTH; MONETARY ECONOMY AB A general equilibrium monetary economy is described that exhibits equilibrium growth. The production technology is consistent with Jones and Manuelli (1990) and Rebelo (1991). The inflation tax and nominal interest rates are shown to be inversely related to the equilibrium growth rates of real variables until a critical point is reached. At this point, equilibrium growth is eliminated and the predictions of Stockman (1981) and Abel (1985) concerning the 'level effects' of distortionary monetary policies appear. For the nominal side of the model, a version of the prediction of Friedman (1969) is shown to hold for a particular balanced growth path. Following King and Rebelo (1990), a linear growth version of the model is calibrated to illustrate the potentially large growth and welfare effects of moderate inflations. C1 FLORIDA STATE UNIV,TALLAHASSEE,FL 32306. RP MARQUIS, MH (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 28 TC 12 Z9 12 U1 0 U2 0 PU ECONOMICA PUBL OFFICE PI LONDON PA LONDON SCH OF ECON & POLIT SCI HOUGHTON ST, LONDON, ENGLAND WC2A 2AE SN 0013-0427 J9 ECONOMICA JI Economica PD FEB PY 1995 VL 62 IS 245 BP 109 EP 121 DI 10.2307/2554778 PG 13 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QL677 UT WOS:A1995QL67700005 ER PT J AU ELROD, T KEANE, MP AF ELROD, T KEANE, MP TI A FACTOR-ANALYTIC PROBIT MODEL FOR REPRESENTING THE MARKET-STRUCTURE IN PANEL-DATA SO JOURNAL OF MARKETING RESEARCH LA English DT Article ID MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD-ESTIMATION; SUPERMARKET SCANNING DATA; BINARY CHOICE DATA; SPATIAL REPRESENTATION; SIMULATED MOMENTS; THRESHOLD-MODEL; MAPS; PICK; SEGMENTATION; DISTANCES AB Internal market structure analysis infers both brand attributes and consumer preferences for those attributes from preference or choice data. The authors exploit a new method for estimating probit models from panel data to infer market structures that can be displayed in few dimensions, even though the model can represent every possible vector of purchase probabilities. The result outperforms each of several other models, including Choice Map, SCULPTRE, and Chintagunta's latent class model in terms of goodness of fit, predictive validity, and face validity for a detergent data set. Because theirs is the only market structure model to outperform the structureless Dirichlet-multinomial stochastic brand choice model, the other methods cannot claim to have recovered market structure for these data. C1 UNIV MINNESOTA,CTR IND RELAT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. FED RESERVE BANK,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. UNIV MINNESOTA,DEPT ECON,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. RP ELROD, T (reprint author), UNIV ALBERTA,FAC BUSINESS,EDMONTON,AB T6G 2E1,CANADA. RI Elrod, Terry/B-8546-2009; Keane, Michael/O-2840-2013 OI Keane, Michael/0000-0002-3918-1377 NR 56 TC 86 Z9 87 U1 0 U2 8 PU AMER MARKETING ASSN PI CHICAGO PA 250 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE SUITE 200, CHICAGO, IL 60606-5819 SN 0022-2437 J9 J MARKETING RES JI J. Mark. Res. PD FEB PY 1995 VL 32 IS 1 BP 1 EP 16 DI 10.2307/3152106 PG 16 WC Business SC Business & Economics GA QE926 UT WOS:A1995QE92600001 ER PT J AU COLE, HL KEHOE, PJ AF COLE, HL KEHOE, PJ TI THE ROLE OF INSTITUTIONS IN REPUTATION MODELS OF SOVEREIGN DEBT SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE DEFAULT; SOVEREIGN DEBT; REPUTATION ID IMPERFECT INFORMATION; REPUDIATION AB A standard explanation for why sovereign governments repay their debts is that they must maintain a good reputation to easily borrow more. We show that the ability of reputation to support debt depends critically on the assumptions made about institutions. At one extreme, we assume that bankers can default on payments they owe to governments. At the other, we assume that bankers are committed to honoring contracts made with governments. We show that if bankers can default, then a government gets enduring benefits from maintaining a good relationship with bankers and its reputation can support a large amount of borrowing. If, however, bankers must honor their contracts, then a government gets only transient benefits from maintaining a good relationship and its reputation can support zero borrowing. C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55454. UNIV PENN,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. NR 22 TC 16 Z9 16 U1 2 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD FEB PY 1995 VL 35 IS 1 BP 45 EP 64 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(94)01165-7 PG 20 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA QP951 UT WOS:A1995QP95100003 ER PT J AU FUHRER, JC MOORE, GR SCHUH, SD AF FUHRER, JC MOORE, GR SCHUH, SD TI ESTIMATING THE LINEAR-QUADRATIC INVENTORY MODEL - MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD VERSUS GENERALIZED-METHOD OF MOMENTS SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE GENERALIZED METHOD OF MOMENTS; MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD; LINEAR-QUADRATIC INVENTORY MODEL ID CONSISTENT COVARIANCE-MATRIX; SAMPLE PROPERTIES; HETEROSKEDASTICITY; BEHAVIOR; MARKET AB We compare generalized method of moments (GMM) and maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of the parameters of a linear-quadratic inventory model using nondurable manufacturing data and Monte Carlo simulations. Data-based GMM estimates for five normalizations vary widely, generally rejecting the model. The ML estimate generally supports the model. Monte Carlo experiments reveal that the GMM estimates are often biased (apparently due to poor instruments), statistically insignificant, economically implausible, and dynamically unstable. The ML estimates are generally unbiased (even in misspecified models), statistically significant, economically plausible, and dynamically stable. Asymptotic standard errors for ML are 3 to 15 times smaller than for GMM. C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP FUHRER, JC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. RI Fuhrer, Jeff/F-8852-2013 NR 35 TC 54 Z9 55 U1 2 U2 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD FEB PY 1995 VL 35 IS 1 BP 115 EP 157 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(94)01184-C PG 43 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA QP951 UT WOS:A1995QP95100006 ER PT J AU GLICK, R ROGOFF, K AF GLICK, R ROGOFF, K TI GLOBAL VERSUS COUNTRY-SPECIFIC PRODUCTIVITY SHOCKS AND THE CURRENT ACCOUNT SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE CURRENT ACCOUNT; PRODUCTIVITY; INVESTMENT ID REAL BUSINESS CYCLES; INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS; PERMANENT INCOME HYPOTHESIS; OPEN-ECONOMY; INVESTMENT; IMBALANCES; TRENDS; LABOR AB This paper develops an analytically tractable empirical model of investment and the current account, and applies it to data from the G-7 countries. The distinction between global and country-specific shocks turns out to be quite important for explaining current account behavior; overall the model performs surprisingly well. One apparent puzzle, however, is that the current account responds by much less than investment to country-specific shocks, despite the near unit root behavior of these shocks. We show theoretically that this apparent anomaly can be explained if the shocks have very slow mean reversion. C1 PRINCETON UNIV,PRINCETON,NJ 08544. RP GLICK, R (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO,SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94105, USA. NR 37 TC 140 Z9 143 U1 2 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD FEB PY 1995 VL 35 IS 1 BP 159 EP 192 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(94)01181-9 PG 34 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA QP951 UT WOS:A1995QP95100007 ER PT J AU IRELAND, PN AF IRELAND, PN TI ENDOGENOUS FINANCIAL INNOVATION AND THE DEMAND FOR MONEY SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article RP IRELAND, PN (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND,RES DEPT,RICHMOND,VA 23261, USA. NR 21 TC 10 Z9 11 U1 0 U2 1 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD FEB PY 1995 VL 27 IS 1 BP 107 EP 123 DI 10.2307/2077853 PG 17 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA QE836 UT WOS:A1995QE83600006 ER PT J AU HASLAG, JH HEIN, SE AF HASLAG, JH HEIN, SE TI QUASI-BALANCE-SHEET MEASURES OF UNITED-STATES MONETARY-POLICY - A CLOSER LOOK SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID MODEL-SPECIFICATION; TESTS; MONEY; CAUSALITY; INCOME C1 FIRST NATL BANK,LUBBOCK,TX. TEXAS TECH UNIV,DEPT FINANCE,LUBBOCK,TX 79409. SO METHODIST UNIV,DALLAS,TX 75275. RP HASLAG, JH (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,RES DEPT,DALLAS,TX 75222, USA. NR 27 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 2 U2 4 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD FEB PY 1995 VL 27 IS 1 BP 124 EP 139 DI 10.2307/2077854 PG 16 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA QE836 UT WOS:A1995QE83600007 ER PT J AU HUNTER, WC TIMME, SG AF HUNTER, WC TIMME, SG TI CORE DEPOSITS AND PHYSICAL CAPITAL - A REEXAMINATION OF BANK SCALE ECONOMIES AND EFFICIENCY WITH QUASI-FIXED INPUTS SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID PRODUCT MIX ECONOMIES; UNITED-STATES BANKS; PRODUCTION FRONTIERS; SCOPE; COSTS C1 GEORGIA STATE UNIV,ATLANTA,GA 30303. RP HUNTER, WC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,RES DEPT,ATLANTA,GA 30303, USA. NR 34 TC 29 Z9 31 U1 1 U2 6 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD FEB PY 1995 VL 27 IS 1 BP 165 EP 185 DI 10.2307/2077857 PG 21 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA QE836 UT WOS:A1995QE83600010 ER PT J AU WHEELOCK, DC KUMBHAKAR, SC AF WHEELOCK, DC KUMBHAKAR, SC TI WHICH BANKS CHOOSE DEPOSIT INSURANCE - EVIDENCE OF ADVERSE SELECTION AND MORAL HAZARD IN A VOLUNTARY INSURANCE SYSTEM SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article C1 UNIV TEXAS,AUSTIN,TX 78712. RP WHEELOCK, DC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK,ST LOUIS,MO 63166, USA. RI Wheelock, David/I-5757-2016 OI Wheelock, David/0000-0002-2702-8164 NR 20 TC 16 Z9 16 U1 0 U2 3 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD FEB PY 1995 VL 27 IS 1 BP 186 EP 201 DI 10.2307/2077858 PG 16 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA QE836 UT WOS:A1995QE83600011 ER PT J AU KAMIN, SB AF KAMIN, SB TI CONTRACTIONARY DEVALUATION WITH BLACK MARKETS FOR FOREIGN-EXCHANGE SO JOURNAL OF POLICY MODELING LA English DT Article ID DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES; SUBSTITUTION AB Analyses of the possible contractionary effects of exchange rate devaluation typically assume the foreign exchange market to be unified, thereby ignoring the large fraction of transactions taking place in the black markets for foreign exchange that exist in many developing countries. This paper explores how the existence of these black markets may alter the impact of an official devaluation on aggregate output. It is argued that devaluation will be followed by less immediate contraction in a black market economy than in a unified market economy, both because the black market exchange rate will depreciate by less than the official rate, and because many of the devaluation's contractionary effects will occur in anticipation of the official devaluation itself. These propositions are tested using a simple numerical simulation model. RP KAMIN, SB (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV INT FINANCE,STOP 20,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 14 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0161-8938 J9 J POLICY MODEL JI J. Policy Model. PD FEB PY 1995 VL 17 IS 1 BP 39 EP 57 DI 10.1016/0161-8938(94)00011-4 PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QC843 UT WOS:A1995QC84300002 ER PT J AU TREJOS, A WRIGHT, R AF TREJOS, A WRIGHT, R TI SEARCH, BARGAINING, MONEY, AND PRICES SO JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Article ID EXCHANGE; EQUILIBRIUM; ECONOMY; MODEL AB The goal of this paper is to extend existing search-theoretic models of fiat money, which until now have assumed that the price level is exogenous, by explicitly incorporating bilateral bargaining. This allows us to determine the price level endogenously and leads to additional insights concerning the role of money. For example, we find that monetary equilibria are generally inefficient in the sense that output and prices differ from the solution to a social planner's problem, although the difference can become small as the discount rate or search friction vanishes. We also find that there exist nonstationary inflationary equilibria. C1 INST ANAL ECON,BARCELONA,SPAIN. UNIV PENN,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. FED RESERVE BANK,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. RP TREJOS, A (reprint author), NORTHWESTERN UNIV,EVANSTON,IL 60201, USA. NR 32 TC 233 Z9 234 U1 0 U2 6 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0022-3808 J9 J POLIT ECON JI J. Polit. Econ. PD FEB PY 1995 VL 103 IS 1 BP 118 EP 141 DI 10.1086/261978 PG 24 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QE820 UT WOS:A1995QE82000006 ER PT J AU ISRAILEVICH, PR AF ISRAILEVICH, PR TI REGIONAL NETWORKS, BORDER REGIONS AND EUROPEAN INTEGRATION - CAPPELLIN,R, BATEY,PWJ SO JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE LA English DT Book Review RP ISRAILEVICH, PR (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU BLACKWELL PUBLISHERS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 238 MAIN STREET, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0022-4146 J9 J REGIONAL SCI JI J. Reg. Sci. PD FEB PY 1995 VL 35 IS 1 BP 190 EP 193 PG 4 WC Economics; Environmental Studies; Planning & Development SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Public Administration GA QJ338 UT WOS:A1995QJ33800019 ER PT J AU FUNRER, LJ MOORE, G AF FUNRER, LJ MOORE, G TI INFLATION PERSISTENCE SO QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID DISINFLATION AB This paper demonstrates that the behavior of the conventional Phelps-Taylor model of overlapping wage contracts stands in stark contrast with important features of U.S. macro data for inflation and output. In particular, the Phelps-Taylor specification implies far too little inflation persistence. We present a new contracting model, in which agents are concerned with relative real wages, that is data-consistent. In a specification that nests both models, we resoundingly reject the conventional contracting model, but cannot reject the new contracting model. RP FUNRER, LJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA, USA. NR 13 TC 0 Z9 8 U1 2 U2 5 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0033-5533 J9 Q J ECON JI Q. J. Econ. PD FEB PY 1995 VL 110 IS 1 BP 127 EP 159 PG 33 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QH362 UT WOS:A1995QH36200006 ER PT B AU Bradbury, KL AF Bradbury, KL BE Stocker, FD TI Massachusetts' recent school aid reforms SO 1994 PROCEEDINGS OF THE EIGHTY-SEVENTH ANNUAL CONFERENCE ON TAXATION LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 87th Annual Conference on Taxation CY NOV 13-15, 1994 CL CHARLESTON, SC SP Natl Tax Assoc C1 FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU NATL TAX ASSOC-TAX INST AMER PI COLUMBUS PA 5310 E MAIN ST, SUITE 104, COLUMBUS, OH 43213 PY 1995 BP 37 EP 38 PG 2 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA BG50J UT WOS:A1995BG50J00007 ER PT B AU Tannenwald, R Kendrick, C AF Tannenwald, R Kendrick, C BE Stocker, FD TI Taxes and capital spending: Some new evidence SO 1994 PROCEEDINGS OF THE EIGHTY-SEVENTH ANNUAL CONFERENCE ON TAXATION LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 87th Annual Conference on Taxation CY NOV 13-15, 1994 CL CHARLESTON, SC SP Natl Tax Assoc C1 FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210. NR 0 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU NATL TAX ASSOC-TAX INST AMER PI COLUMBUS PA 5310 E MAIN ST, SUITE 104, COLUMBUS, OH 43213 PY 1995 BP 113 EP 121 PG 9 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA BG50J UT WOS:A1995BG50J00016 ER PT S AU Stewart, L AF Stewart, L BE Hargrove, JL TI Multinational finance and derivatives SO ASIL PROCEEDINGS OF THE 89TH ANNUAL MEETING - STRUCTURES OF WORLD ORDER SE PROCEEDINGS OF THE ANNUAL MEETING - AMERICAN SOCIETY OF INTERNATIONAL LAW LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT ASIL 89th Annual Meeting - Structures of World Order CY APR 05-08, 1995 CL NEW YORK, NY SP Amer Soc Int Law C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER SOC INT LAW PI WASHINGTON PA 2223 MASSACHUSETTS AVE, WASHINGTON, DC 20008 SN 0272-5037 J9 P AM S IN L PY 1995 BP 38 EP 42 PG 5 WC International Relations; Law SC International Relations; Government & Law GA BE77L UT WOS:A1995BE77L00011 ER PT J AU Berger, AN Kashyap, AK Scalise, JM AF Berger, AN Kashyap, AK Scalise, JM TI The transformation of the US banking industry. What a long, strange trip it's been SO BROOKINGS PAPERS ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 60th Conference of the Brookings-Panel-on-Economic-Activity CY SEP 07-08, 1995 CL WASHINGTON, D.C. SP Brookings Panel Econ Activ ID CAPITAL REGULATION; RISK; TAKEOVERS; FAILURE C1 UNIV CHICAGO, CHICAGO, IL 60637 USA. FED RESERVE SYST, BOARD GOVERNORS, WASHINGTON, DC 20551 USA. RP Berger, AN (reprint author), WHARTON FINANCIAL INST CTR, 3301 STEINBERG HALL, DIETRICH HALL, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19104 USA. NR 92 TC 25 Z9 27 U1 2 U2 6 PU BROOKINGS INST PI WASHINGTON PA 1775 MASSACHUSETTS AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20036 USA SN 0007-2303 J9 BROOKINGS PAP ECO AC JI Brook. Pap. Econ. Act. PY 1995 IS 2 BP 55 EP 218 PG 164 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TT942 UT WOS:A1995TT94200003 ER PT J AU CRAIG, B PENCAVEL, J AF CRAIG, B PENCAVEL, J TI PARTICIPATION AND PRODUCTIVITY - A COMPARISON OF WORKER COOPERATIVES AND CONVENTIONAL FIRMS IN THE PLYWOOD INDUSTRY SO BROOKINGS PAPERS ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 9th Meeting of the Brookings-Microeconomics-Panel CY DEC 09-10, 1994 CL BROOKINGS INST, WASHINGTON, DC SP Brookings Microecon Panel HO BROOKINGS INST ID PRODUCER COOPERATIVES AB Academics, managers, and workers often debate the merits of employee ownership and employee involvement in firm decisions. The recent popularity of employee stock ownership plans and the appointment of union and pension fund representatives to several corporate boards has renewed interest in understanding whether employee ownership can make firms more productive and profitable. Few studies, however, have compared the performance of management-run, or ''conventional,'' firms with worker cooperatives. Existing studies usually compare the productivities of firms and workers in different industries. By examining conventional and worker-controlled firms in the same industry, Craig and Pencavel provide a better comparison. The authors analyze data on the inputs and outputs of Northwestern U.S. plywood product mills from 1968 to 1986. Their data contain observations on conventional, union, and worker co-op firms. From these data, the authors try to determine whether cooperatives can produce more output than conventional firms that use the same level of inputs. To determine this, the authors must control for differences in the scale and products of plywood mills. The authors begin by discussing how worker ownership is likely to affect the use and productivity of inputs. They also discuss factors that affect the formation and failure of cooperatives. The authors hypothesize that the availability, cost, and control of capital play key roles in the formation and continuation of cooperatives. The authors next compare output produced per worker, output produced per unit of capital, and output produced per unit of timber input. They find that cooperatives have greater productivity per unit of timber input but lower labor productivity. The cooperatives also operate at larger scales than conventional firms. Craig and Pencavel isolate the effects of scale and differences in factor usage by estimating multifactor production functions. These production functions control for differences in input usage, scale, factor and product prices, and business-cycle effects. Their estimates suggest that cooperatives have slightly better productivities than conventional firms. Output supply function estimates reveal that cooperatives have lower output price elasticities. This latter finding suggests that cooperatives smooth production more than conventional firms when demand unexpectedly changes. In other words, cooperatives are less likely to reduce inputs and output when plywood prices fall or to expand inputs and output when prices rise. Craig and Pencavel conclude that worker ownership does not have ''first-order'' consequences for the factor productivity of plywood product firms. Although they find that plywood cooperatives respond differently to demand and supply shocks, these responses do not seem to have much of an effect on firm productivity. The authors conclude by listing factors that affect the formation and survival of cooperatives in this and other industries. C1 STANFORD UNIV,STANFORD,CA 94305. RP CRAIG, B (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44114, USA. NR 21 TC 25 Z9 25 U1 7 U2 15 PU BROOKINGS INST PI WASHINGTON PA 1775 MASSACHUSETTS AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20036 SN 0007-2303 J9 BROOKINGS PAP ECO AC JI Brook. Pap. Econ. Act. PY 1995 SI SI BP 121 EP & PG 0 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RH473 UT WOS:A1995RH47300006 ER PT S AU Finn, MG AF Finn, MG BE Meltzer, AH Plosser, CI TI Increasing returns to scale and sticky prices: Are they important for real exchange rates? A comment SO CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY, VOL 43, DECEMBER 1995 SE CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy CY NOV, 1994 CL CARNEGIE MELLON UNIV, PITTSBURGH, PA SP Carnegie Mellon Univ, Univ Rochester, Natl Sci Fdn HO CARNEGIE MELLON UNIV C1 FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND,RICHMOND,VA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL B V PI AMSTERDAM PA SARA BURGERHARTSTRAAT 25, PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-2231 J9 CARN ROCH CONF SERIE PY 1995 VL 43 BP 103 EP 110 DI 10.1016/0167-2231(95)90039-X PG 8 WC Public Administration SC Public Administration GA BE82M UT WOS:A1995BE82M00004 ER PT S AU Aiyagari, SR AF Aiyagari, SR BE Meltzer, AH Plosser, CI TI The econometrics of indeterminacy: A comment SO CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY, VOL 43, DECEMBER 1995 SE CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy CY NOV, 1994 CL CARNEGIE MELLON UNIV, PITTSBURGH, PA SP Carnegie Mellon Univ, Univ Rochester, Natl Sci Fdn HO CARNEGIE MELLON UNIV C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. NR 0 TC 19 Z9 19 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL B V PI AMSTERDAM PA SARA BURGERHARTSTRAAT 25, PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-2231 J9 CARN ROCH CONF SERIE PY 1995 VL 43 BP 273 EP 284 DI 10.1016/0167-2231(95)90051-9 PG 12 WC Public Administration SC Public Administration GA BE82M UT WOS:A1995BE82M00010 ER PT B AU Drabenstott, M AF Drabenstott, M BE Johnson, SR Bouzaher, A TI Economic prospects for the Great Plains SO CONSERVATION OF GREAT PLAINS ECOSYSTEMS: CURRENT SCIENCE, FUTURE OPTIONS SE ECOLOGY, ECONOMY & ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Symposium on Conservation of Great Plains Ecosystems - Current Science, Future Options CY APR 07-09, 1993 CL KANSAS CITY, MO SP US EPA, Reg VII, W Governors Assoc, US Fish & Wildlife Serv, Iowa State Univ, Ctr Agr & Rural Dev C1 FED RESERVE BANK,KANSAS CITY,MO 64198. NR 0 TC 1 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 0 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS BN 0-7923-3747-6 J9 ECOL EC ENV JI Ecol. Econ. Environ. PY 1995 VL 5 BP 63 EP 81 PG 19 WC Agronomy; Ecology; Environmental Sciences SC Agriculture; Environmental Sciences & Ecology GA BE80K UT WOS:A1995BE80K00006 ER PT S AU ENGLISH, MP AF ENGLISH, MP BE Folk, KF TI The public's right to government information SO CONSUMER INTERESTS ANNUAL, VOL 41 SE PROCEEDINGS : ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAN COUNCIL ON CONSUMER INTERESTS LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 41st Annual Conference of the American-Council-on-Consumer-Interests CY MAR 15-18, 1995 CL WASHINGTON, DC SP Amer Council Consumer Interests C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,DIV CONSUMER & COMMUNITY AFFAIRS,WASHINGTON,DC. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER COUNCIL COMSUMER INTERESTS PI COLUMBIA PA 240 STANLEY HALL, UNIV MISSOURI, COLUMBIA, MO 65211 SN 0275-1356 J9 P AM C CONS PY 1995 VL 41 BP 14 EP 17 PG 2 WC Business, Finance; Social Issues SC Business & Economics; Social Issues GA BD76N UT WOS:A1995BD76N00003 ER PT J AU KUPIEC, PH AF KUPIEC, PH TI A SECURITIES TRANSACTIONS TAX AND CAPITAL-MARKET EFFICIENCY SO CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY LA English DT Article AB This paper revisits the debate on the securities transaction tax (STT). The analysis uses Tobin's (1984) taxonomy of financial market efficiency to examine the potential effects of such a tax and concludes that a STT probably would not enhance the overall functioning of financial markets. RP KUPIEC, PH (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 25 TC 4 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 3 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 SN 0735-0007 J9 CONTEMP ECON POLICY JI Contemp. Econ. Policy PD JAN PY 1995 VL 13 IS 1 BP 101 EP 112 PG 12 WC Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA QG632 UT WOS:A1995QG63200014 ER PT J AU BOSCHEN, JF MILLS, LO AF BOSCHEN, JF MILLS, LO TI THE RELATION BETWEEN NARRATIVE AND MONEY MARKET INDICATORS OF MONETARY-POLICY SO ECONOMIC INQUIRY LA English DT Article AB This paper studies the relation between narrative-based indicators of monetary policy and widely used money market indicators of monetary policy. Three principal findings emerge. First, changes in monetary policy, as measured by the narrative-based policy indices, are associated with persistent changes in the levels of M2 and the monetary base. In contrast, changes in the narrative policy indicators lead to transitory changes in short-term interest rates, nonborrowed reserves, and the spread between the six-month commercial paper rate and the three-month treasury bill rate. Third, these findings are generally robust across different narrative-based policy indices. C1 FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA, PHILADELPHIA, PA USA. FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND, RICHMOND, VA USA. RP BOSCHEN, JF (reprint author), COLL WILLIAM & MARY, GRAD SCH BUSINESS ADM, WILLIAMSBURG, VA 23185 USA. NR 29 TC 44 Z9 45 U1 0 U2 3 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI MALDEN PA COMMERCE PLACE, 350 MAIN ST, MALDEN 02148, MA USA SN 0095-2583 J9 ECON INQ JI Econ. Inq. PD JAN PY 1995 VL 33 IS 1 BP 24 EP 44 PG 21 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QG511 UT WOS:A1995QG51100002 ER PT J AU BORDO, MD EVANS, CL AF BORDO, MD EVANS, CL TI LABOR PRODUCTIVITY DURING THE GREAT-DEPRESSION SO ECONOMICS LETTERS LA English DT Article DE COUNTERCYCLICAL MANUFACTURING; LABOR PRODUCTIVITY; GREAT DEPRESSION AB During the 1929-33 contraction, labor productivity was countercyclical in several manufacturing sectors - evidence consistent with the view that large negative demand shocks pushed the economy down a static, neoclassical production function. This evidence does not readily square with explanations for the contraction emphasizing labor hoarding and increasing returns. C1 FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,RES DEPT,CHICAGO,IL 60604. RP BORDO, MD (reprint author), RUTGERS STATE UNIV,DEPT ECON,NEW JERSEY HALL,POB 5055,NEW BRUNSWICK,NJ 08903, USA. NR 9 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0165-1765 J9 ECON LETT JI Econ. Lett. PD JAN PY 1995 VL 47 IS 1 BP 41 EP 45 DI 10.1016/0165-1765(94)00517-6 PG 5 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QC378 UT WOS:A1995QC37800007 ER PT B AU Meltzer, AH AF Meltzer, AH BE Sawamoto, K Nakajima, Z Taguchi, H TI Regulatory arrangements, financial stability and regulatory reform SO FINANCIAL STABILITY IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 6th International Conference of the Institute-for-Monetary-and-Economic-Studies of the Bank-of-Japan - Financial Stability in a Changing Environment CY OCT 28-29, 1993 CL TOKYO, JAPAN SP Bank Japan, Inst Monetary & Econ Studies C1 FED RESERVE BANK ST LOUIS,ST LOUIS,MO. NR 0 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU ST MARTINS PRESS INC PI NEW YORK PA SCHOLARLY AND REFERENCE BOOKS DIVISION, 175 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10010 BN 0-312-12474-0 PY 1995 BP 7 EP 25 PG 19 WC International Relations SC International Relations GA BE77K UT WOS:A1995BE77K00002 ER PT B AU Frydl, EJ AF Frydl, EJ BE Sawamoto, K Nakajima, Z Taguchi, H TI Toward a more stable financial framework: Long-term alternatives an overview of recent bank disruption worldwide - Comments SO FINANCIAL STABILITY IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 6th International Conference of the Institute-for-Monetary-and-Economic-Studies of the Bank-of-Japan - Financial Stability in a Changing Environment CY OCT 28-29, 1993 CL TOKYO, JAPAN SP Bank Japan, Inst Monetary & Econ Studies C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,RES ADM DIV,NEW YORK,NY 10045. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ST MARTINS PRESS INC PI NEW YORK PA SCHOLARLY AND REFERENCE BOOKS DIVISION, 175 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10010 BN 0-312-12474-0 PY 1995 BP 99 EP 102 PG 4 WC International Relations SC International Relations GA BE77K UT WOS:A1995BE77K00005 ER PT B AU Syron, RF AF Syron, RF BE Sawamoto, K Nakajima, Z Taguchi, H TI Monetary policy implications of recent changes in the financial systems in the United States and Europe - Comments SO FINANCIAL STABILITY IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 6th International Conference of the Institute-for-Monetary-and-Economic-Studies of the Bank-of-Japan - Financial Stability in a Changing Environment CY OCT 28-29, 1993 CL TOKYO, JAPAN SP Bank Japan, Inst Monetary & Econ Studies C1 FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ST MARTINS PRESS INC PI NEW YORK PA SCHOLARLY AND REFERENCE BOOKS DIVISION, 175 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10010 BN 0-312-12474-0 PY 1995 BP 151 EP 160 PG 10 WC International Relations SC International Relations GA BE77K UT WOS:A1995BE77K00009 ER PT B AU Parry, RT AF Parry, RT BE Sawamoto, K Nakajima, Z Taguchi, H TI Recent changes in the financial systems of Asian and Pacific countries - Comments SO FINANCIAL STABILITY IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 6th International Conference of the Institute-for-Monetary-and-Economic-Studies of the Bank-of-Japan - Financial Stability in a Changing Environment CY OCT 28-29, 1993 CL TOKYO, JAPAN SP Bank Japan, Inst Monetary & Econ Studies C1 FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO,SAN FRANCISCO,CA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ST MARTINS PRESS INC PI NEW YORK PA SCHOLARLY AND REFERENCE BOOKS DIVISION, 175 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10010 BN 0-312-12474-0 PY 1995 BP 201 EP 204 PG 4 WC International Relations SC International Relations GA BE77K UT WOS:A1995BE77K00011 ER PT B AU Goodfriend, M AF Goodfriend, M BE Sawamoto, K Nakajima, Z Taguchi, H TI Comments SO FINANCIAL STABILITY IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 6th International Conference of the Institute-for-Monetary-and-Economic-Studies of the Bank-of-Japan - Financial Stability in a Changing Environment CY OCT 28-29, 1993 CL TOKYO, JAPAN SP Bank Japan, Inst Monetary & Econ Studies C1 FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND,RES DEPT,RICHMOND,VA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ST MARTINS PRESS INC PI NEW YORK PA SCHOLARLY AND REFERENCE BOOKS DIVISION, 175 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10010 BN 0-312-12474-0 PY 1995 BP 319 EP 323 PG 5 WC International Relations SC International Relations GA BE77K UT WOS:A1995BE77K00017 ER PT B AU Jordan, JL AF Jordan, JL BE Sawamoto, K Nakajima, Z Taguchi, H TI Comments SO FINANCIAL STABILITY IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 6th International Conference of the Institute-for-Monetary-and-Economic-Studies of the Bank-of-Japan - Financial Stability in a Changing Environment CY OCT 28-29, 1993 CL TOKYO, JAPAN SP Bank Japan, Inst Monetary & Econ Studies C1 FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ST MARTINS PRESS INC PI NEW YORK PA SCHOLARLY AND REFERENCE BOOKS DIVISION, 175 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10010 BN 0-312-12474-0 PY 1995 BP 506 EP 509 PG 4 WC International Relations SC International Relations GA BE77K UT WOS:A1995BE77K00029 ER PT J AU MISHKIN, FS AF MISHKIN, FS TI NONSTATIONARITY OF REGRESSORS AND TESTS ON REAL-INTEREST-RATE BEHAVIOR SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS LA English DT Article DE INFLATION; NOMINAL INTEREST RATES ID TERM INTEREST-RATES; RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS; SAMPLE PROPERTIES; INFLATION; PREDICTORS; MODELS AB This article reexamines tests on the behavior of real interest rates in light of recent results that indicate that regressors are nonstationary and not strictly exogenous. Strong rejections of constancy of real interest rates that have been found previously in the literature are confirmed here. Although there is some evidence here that real rates are negatively correlated with expected inflation, this result is not as strong as has been indicated by previous research. In addition, results that found a significant negative correlation between real rates and nominal rates before 1979 are not supported here, although there is evidence for a positive correlation of real and nominal interest rates after 1979. RP MISHKIN, FS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 24 TC 11 Z9 11 U1 1 U2 1 PU AMER STATIST ASSN PI ALEXANDRIA PA 1429 DUKE ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 SN 0735-0015 J9 J BUS ECON STAT JI J. Bus. Econ. Stat. PD JAN PY 1995 VL 13 IS 1 BP 47 EP 51 DI 10.2307/1392520 PG 5 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Mathematics GA PZ717 UT WOS:A1995PZ71700005 ER PT J AU MILLER, PJ TODD, RM AF MILLER, PJ TODD, RM TI REAL EFFECTS OF MONETARY-POLICY IN A WORLD-ECONOMY SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article DE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM; OPEN ECONOMY; NONTRADED GOODS; MONETARY POLICY; LEGAL RESTRICTIONS ID LUCAS CRITIQUE; EXPECTATIONS; DYNAMICS AB We present a two-country, heterogeneous-agent model in which changes in a country's monetary policy affect real interest rates, relative prices of traded and nontraded goods, and real exchange rates. Nontransitory real effects of monetary policy stem from legal restrictions in the form of country-specific reserve requirements. Without violating the classical assumptions of individual rationality and flexible prices, the model's implications seem qualitatively consistent with the U.S. experience of the 1980s: a monetary policy tightening leading to a rise in the real interest rate and to an initial rise in the real value of the dollar which is subsequently reversed. RP MILLER, PJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480, USA. NR 20 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD JAN-FEB PY 1995 VL 19 IS 1-2 BP 125 EP 153 DI 10.1016/0165-1889(93)00777-2 PG 29 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QA937 UT WOS:A1995QA93700007 ER PT J AU WRIGHT, R AF WRIGHT, R TI SEARCH, EVOLUTION, AND MONEY SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Society-of-Economic-Dynamics-and-Control 1992 Meeting CY 1992 CL MONTREAL, CANADA SP Soc Econ Dynam & Control DE SEARCH; EVOLUTION; MONEY ID EXCHANGE; EQUILIBRIUM; ECONOMY AB This paper describes a search-theoretic model that can be used to determine which objects serve as media of exchange, or money. Existing versions of the model are generalized to allow arbitrary distributions of agents who specialize in different consumption-production activities. I characterize the way the numbers of consumers and producers of the various goods help determine which goods serve as money. The distribution is then endogenized, so that agents can choose their type. This generates a unique equilibrium outcome. Ideas from evolutionary dynamics are employed as a way to interpret the model, and to compute equilibria. C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. RP WRIGHT, R (reprint author), UNIV PENN,DEPT ECON,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104, USA. NR 43 TC 17 Z9 17 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD JAN-FEB PY 1995 VL 19 IS 1-2 BP 181 EP 206 DI 10.1016/0165-1889(93)00770-5 PG 26 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QA937 UT WOS:A1995QA93700009 ER PT J AU COGLEY, T NASON, JM AF COGLEY, T NASON, JM TI EFFECTS OF THE HODRICK-PRESCOTT FILTER ON TREND AND DIFFERENCE STATIONARY TIME-SERIES IMPLICATIONS FOR BUSINESS-CYCLE RESEARCH SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article DE BUSINESS FLUCTUATIONS; TIME SERIES MODELS; MODEL EVALUATION AND TESTING ID FLUCTUATIONS AB When applied to persistent time series, the Hodrick-Prescott filter can generate business cycle dynamics even if none are present in the original data. Hence the presence of business cycles in HP filtered data does not imply that there are business cycles in the original data. For example, we show that standard real business cycle models do not generate business cycle dynamics in pre-filtered data and that the business cycles observed in HP filtered data are due to the filter. As another example, we show that under plausible assumptions HP stylized facts are determined primarily by the filter and reveal little about the dynamics of the underlying data. C1 UNIV BRITISH COLUMBIA,DEPT ECON,VANCOUVER,BC V6T 1Z1,CANADA. RP COGLEY, T (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO,RES DEPT,SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94120, USA. NR 25 TC 224 Z9 229 U1 0 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD JAN-FEB PY 1995 VL 19 IS 1-2 BP 253 EP 278 DI 10.1016/0165-1889(93)00781-X PG 26 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QA937 UT WOS:A1995QA93700012 ER PT J AU REBELLO, MJ AF REBELLO, MJ TI ADVERSE SELECTION COSTS AND THE FIRMS FINANCING AND INSURANCE DECISIONS SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION LA English DT Article ID EQUITY CARVE-OUTS; ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION; CAPITAL STRUCTURE; SIGNALING GAMES; DIVIDEND POLICY; OFFERINGS AB We examine the financing and insurance policies of a firm with private information regarding its operating cash flows and insurance risk. When its insurable losses are small, the firm chooses either self-insurance or full insurance. It it chooses self-insurance, it may display a preference for equity financing. However, if it chooses full insurance, it prefers debt financing. When the firm's insurable losses are large, its insurance and financing decisions can signal its private information. While both debt and equity complement insurance decisions in signaling private information, debt facilities signaling favorable information for a larger set of parameters. (C) 1995 Academic Press, Inc. C1 FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,RES DEPT,ATLANTA,GA 30303. RP REBELLO, MJ (reprint author), GEORGIA STATE UNIV,COLL BUSINESS ADM,DEPT FINANCE,ATLANTA,GA 30303, USA. NR 39 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 0 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525B STREET, SUITE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 1042-9573 J9 J FINANC INTERMED JI J. Financ. Intermed. PD JAN PY 1995 VL 4 IS 1 BP 21 EP 47 DI 10.1006/jfin.1995.1002 PG 27 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA QH013 UT WOS:A1995QH01300002 ER PT J AU COOLEY, TF SMITH, BD AF COOLEY, TF SMITH, BD TI INDIVISIBLE ASSETS, EQUILIBRIUM, AND THE VALUE OF INTERMEDIATION SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION LA English DT Article ID LEGAL RESTRICTIONS; INFLATION; MONEY; UNEMPLOYMENT; ECONOMY; POLICY; MODEL AB This paper considers a standard monetary economy with indivisible primary assets and transaction costs. When assets are indivisible, if a steady-state equilibrium with positive savings exists, there necessarily exists a very large set of equilibria. The intermediation of indivisible assets sunstantially reduces the set of competitive equilibria, and enhances the ''flexibility'' of prices. We state sufficient conditions for intermediaries to form and hold all primary assets directly. We define and analyze various measures of the consumer surplus created by intermediaries. We show that conventional measures of intermediary output bear no obvious relation to the consumer surplus created by intermediation. (C) 1995 Academic Press, Inc. C1 CORNELL UNIV, ITHACA, NY 14853 USA. ROCHESTER CTR ECON RES, ROCHESTER, NY USA. FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS, MINNEAPOLIS, MN USA. RP UNIV ROCHESTER, ROCHESTER, NY 14627 USA. NR 40 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 4 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 USA SN 1042-9573 EI 1096-0473 J9 J FINANC INTERMED JI J. Financ. Intermed. PD JAN PY 1995 VL 4 IS 1 BP 48 EP 76 DI 10.1006/jfin.1995.1003 PG 29 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA QH013 UT WOS:A1995QH01300003 ER PT J AU SARKAR, A AF SARKAR, A TI DUAL TRADING - WINNERS, LOSERS, AND MARKET IMPACT SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION LA English DT Article ID FUTURES AB I show that dual trading reduces the net order flow and market depth. Trading volume and gross (of commission fees) profits of informed traders are lower with dual trading, while trading volume and gross losses of uniformed traders are unaffected. When the broker's commission income is independent of the customer's trading volume, the competitive commission fee is lower with dual trading. The utility of uninformed traders (net of commission fees) increases with dual trading, while the net profits of informed traders decrease. (C) 1995 Academic Press, Inc. RP SARKAR, A (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,33 LIBERTY ST,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 17 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 3 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525B STREET, SUITE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 1042-9573 J9 J FINANC INTERMED JI J. Financ. Intermed. PD JAN PY 1995 VL 4 IS 1 BP 77 EP 93 DI 10.1006/jfin.1995.1004 PG 17 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA QH013 UT WOS:A1995QH01300004 ER PT J AU SHAFFER, S AF SHAFFER, S TI OPTIMAL LINEAR TAXATION OF POLLUTING OLIGOPOLISTS SO JOURNAL OF REGULATORY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID COURNOT; CONSISTENT; ENTRY AB A linear ad valorem tax can induce homogeneous oligopolists to produce at socially optimal levels, achieving the first-best allocation, in the presence of external costs that vary exogenously with aggregate output. The optimal tax rate is independent of private cost functions and thus reduces informational requirements on the regulator. Alternatively, if the regulator knows marginal private costs but not the pattern of firms' conduct or the slope of the demand curve, an iterative implementation of the tax is possible. Both blockaded and endogenous entry are considered, as is strategic behavior by firms toward the regulator. RP FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA, RES DEPT, 10 INDEPENDENCE MALL, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19106 USA. NR 24 TC 19 Z9 19 U1 0 U2 2 PU SPRINGER PI DORDRECHT PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0922-680X EI 1573-0468 J9 J REGUL ECON JI J. Regul. Econ. PD JAN PY 1995 VL 7 IS 1 BP 85 EP 100 DI 10.1007/BF01062781 PG 16 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QG346 UT WOS:A1995QG34600005 ER PT J AU CARLINO, G DEFINA, R AF CARLINO, G DEFINA, R TI REGIONAL INCOME DYNAMICS SO JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID EMPLOYMENT; EXPORT AB This paper uses time-series techniques to explore interregional links in regional per capita income growth. The study examines annual data for the period 1929 to 1990 for the eight Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) regions. Impulse response functions and variance decompositions from an estimated structural vector autoregression reveal that important and highly persistent interregional spillovers exist. Moreover, these spillovers tend to be geographically dispersed. (C) 1995 Academic Press, Inc. C1 VILLANOVA UNIV,DEPT ECON,VILLANOVA,PA 19085. RP CARLINO, G (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,RES DEPT,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 19 TC 20 Z9 20 U1 0 U2 0 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525B STREET, SUITE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0094-1190 J9 J URBAN ECON JI J. Urban Econ. PD JAN PY 1995 VL 37 IS 1 BP 88 EP 106 DI 10.1006/juec.1995.1006 PG 19 WC Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA QA924 UT WOS:A1995QA92400006 ER PT J AU FUHRER, JC AF FUHRER, JC TI THE PERSISTENCE OF INFLATION AND THE COST OF DISINFLATION SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID PRICES AB How costly would it be in terms of lost output and jobs to lower the inflation rate to zero? One can answer this counterfactual question only in the context of a model that allows us to estimate the effects of pursuing counterfactual monetary policies. The answer to the question can vary widely depending upon the characteristics of the model used to address it. This article argues that one cannot answer the above question accurately without using a model that properly captures an important feature of the real world: the persistence of inflation. This persistence and the cost of disinflating may arise for several reasons, including the inertia that wage and price contracts impart to the inflation rate, the inertia that slowly adjusting expectations may impart to inflation, or the inertia that imperfect credibility may impart to inflation. The author examines the question using the results of both stylized and fully articulated models. RP FUHRER, JC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. RI Fuhrer, Jeff/F-8852-2013 NR 12 TC 14 Z9 16 U1 1 U2 3 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JAN-FEB PY 1995 BP 3 EP 16 PG 14 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QL629 UT WOS:A1995QL62900001 ER PT J AU SIMONS, K AF SIMONS, K TI INTEREST-RATE DERIVATIVES AND ASSET-LIABILITY MANAGEMENT BY COMMERCIAL-BANKS SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Bank participation in derivative markets has risen sharply in recent years. The total amount of interest rate, currency, commodity, and equity contracts at U.S. commercial and savings banks soared from $6.8 trillion in 1990 to $11.9 trillion in 1993, an increase of 75 percent. A major concern facing policymakers and bank regulators today is the possibility that the rising use of derivatives has increased the riskiness of individual banks and of the banking system as a whole. This study uses quarterly Call Report data to shed some light on the pattern of derivative use by U.S. commercial banks. It finds that among banks with assets of less than $5 billion, larger banks tend to use interest rate swaps more intensively, while no dear relationship was found between size of bank and other interest rate derivatives. In addition, the study found that for banks with more than $5 billion in assets, those with weaker asset quality tend to be more intensive users of derivatives than banks with better asset quality. However, the author points out that these results, while intriguing, do not give a clear indication of how derivatives are used to manage interest rate risk, or whether they are used to increase or reduce that risk. RP SIMONS, K (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 9 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 3 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JAN-FEB PY 1995 BP 17 EP 28 PG 12 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QL629 UT WOS:A1995QL62900002 ER PT J AU KOPCKE, RW AF KOPCKE, RW TI FINANCIAL INNOVATION AND STANDARDS FOR THE CAPITAL OF INSURANCE COMPANIES SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Since their inception, insurance companies, banks, and other financial institutions have played prominent roles in our capital markets. These intermediaries have fostered saving and investment by issuing liabilities that appeal to savers in order to purchase the obligations of investors on attractive terms. Among financial intermediaries, life insurance companies traditionally have distinguished themselves by attracting long-term savings and by providing long-term financing for investment in real estate and durable equipment by businesses. This article reviews the distinctive features of life insurance companies and how they have reshaped their liabilities and restructured their assets in order to cope with the consequences of rising interest rates and increasing competition for savings during the past three decades. The author analyzes the consequences of these financial innovations for the capital of the industry as well as the distribution of capital among life companies, and goes on to examine the issues relevant for measuring and controlling the capital of life companies. He concludes that prudent standards for capital should take into account an insurance company's entire balance sheet, not just its holdings of risky assets. Marking only risky assets according to their disposal values, while reporting other assets and liabilities according to other rules, can greatly misstate the financial condition of life insurance companies. And to the degree that financial intermediaries increasingly favor more familiar assets, the role of nonfinancial corporations as financial intermediaries will continue to expand. RP KOPCKE, RW (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 18 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 2 U2 7 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JAN-FEB PY 1995 BP 29 EP 57 PG 29 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QL629 UT WOS:A1995QL62900003 ER PT J AU Park, S AF Park, S TI Market discipline by depositors: Evidence from reduced-form equations SO QUARTERLY REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE LA English DT Article ID BANK AB This paper examines the effects of bank risk, estimated as the probability of failure based on actual failure records, on the interest rate and the growth of large time deposits between 1985 and 1992. During the period, riskier banks paid higher interest rates but experienced slower growth of large time deposits. These results indicate that risky banks faced unfavorable supply schedules of large time deposits and, hence, support the presence of market discipline by large time depositors. The empirical analysis also considers the effect of bank size, but fails to find evidence that depositors preferred large banks RP Park, S (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,RES FUNCT,33 LIBERTY ST,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 18 TC 22 Z9 22 U1 1 U2 1 PU JAI PRESS INC PI GREENWICH PA 55 OLD POST RD-#2, PO BOX 1678, GREENWICH, CT 06836-1678 SN 1062-9769 J9 Q REV ECON FINANC JI Q. Rev. Econ. Financ. PY 1995 VL 35 SI SI BP 497 EP 514 PG 18 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TX117 UT WOS:A1995TX11700002 ER PT B AU Mishkin, FS AF Mishkin, FS BE Kaufman, GG TI Comment on systemic risk SO RESEARCH IN FINANCIAL SERVICES: PRIVATE AND PUBLIC POLICY, VOL 7, 1995: BANKING, FINANCIAL MARKETS, AND SYSTEMIC RISK SE RESEARCH IN FINANCIAL SERVICES: PRIVATE AND PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT CC Conference on Systemic Risk CY DEC, 1994 CL WASHINGTON, DC SP Off Comptroller Currency C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045. NR 0 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 0 PU JAI PRESS INC PI GREENWICH PA 55 OLD POST ROAD, NO 2, GREENWICH, CT 06836 BN 1-55938-244-9 J9 RES FIN SERV PY 1995 VL 7 BP 31 EP 45 PG 15 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA BE45C UT WOS:A1995BE45C00003 ER PT B AU Phillips, SM AF Phillips, SM BE Kaufman, GG TI Systemic risk and the regulatory agencies SO RESEARCH IN FINANCIAL SERVICES: PRIVATE AND PUBLIC POLICY, VOL 7, 1995: BANKING, FINANCIAL MARKETS, AND SYSTEMIC RISK SE RESEARCH IN FINANCIAL SERVICES: PRIVATE AND PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT CC Conference on Systemic Risk CY DEC, 1994 CL WASHINGTON, DC SP Off Comptroller Currency C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU JAI PRESS INC PI GREENWICH PA 55 OLD POST ROAD, NO 2, GREENWICH, CT 06836 BN 1-55938-244-9 J9 RES FIN SERV PY 1995 VL 7 BP 317 EP 322 PG 6 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA BE45C UT WOS:A1995BE45C00013 ER PT J AU SHAFFER, S AF SHAFFER, S TI STABLE CARTELS WITH A COURNOT FRINGE SO SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL LA English DT Article RP SHAFFER, S (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,10 INDEPENDENCE MALL,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 23 TC 33 Z9 35 U1 0 U2 0 PU UNIV NORTH CAROLINA PI CHAPEL HILL PA SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, CHAPEL HILL, NC 27514 SN 0038-4038 J9 SOUTHERN ECON J JI South. Econ. J. PD JAN PY 1995 VL 61 IS 3 BP 744 EP 754 DI 10.2307/1060994 PG 11 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QB708 UT WOS:A1995QB70800013 ER PT B AU HOOPER, P MARQUEZ, J AF HOOPER, P MARQUEZ, J BE Kenen, PB TI Exchange rates, prices, and external adjustment in the United States and Japan SO UNDERSTANDING INTERDEPENDENCE: THE MACROECONOMICS OF THE OPEN ECONOMY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference of the International-Finance-Section of the Princeton University, Honoring the 50th Anniversary of Essays in International Finance CY APR, 1993 CL PRINCETON, NJ SP Princeton Univ, Int Finance Sect C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 0 TC 22 Z9 22 U1 0 U2 0 PU PRINCETON UNIV PRESS PI PRINCETON PA 41 WILLIAM ST, PRINCETON, NJ 08540 BN 0-691-03408-7 PY 1995 BP 107 EP 168 PG 62 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA BD59A UT WOS:A1995BD59A00004 ER PT J AU GOULD, DM RUFFIN, RJ AF GOULD, DM RUFFIN, RJ TI HUMAN-CAPITAL, TRADE, AND ECONOMIC-GROWTH SO WELTWIRTSCHAFTLICHES ARCHIV-REVIEW OF WORLD ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID LONG-RUN GROWTH AB Human Capital, Trade, and Economic Growth. - Human capital, because of its special role in innovative activity and technological progress, has formed the bedrock of the new theories of endogenous growth. However, it not only serves as an engine of growth but also as a productive input along with labor and physical capital. In this study, the authors find evidence of the importance of both roles of human capital. They also find that the relationship between growth and the external effects of human capital vary according to trade regime. When literacy rates are relatively high, open economies grow about 0.65 to 1.75 percentage points more than closed economies. C1 UNIV HOUSTON,DEPT ECON,HOUSTON,TX 77204. RP GOULD, DM (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,POB 655906,DALLAS,TX 75265, USA. NR 35 TC 9 Z9 10 U1 0 U2 2 PU J C B MOHR PI TUBINGEN PA POSTFACH 2040, W-7400 TUBINGEN, GERMANY SN 0043-2636 J9 WELTWIRTSCH ARCH JI Weltwirtsch. Arch.-Rev. World Econ. PY 1995 VL 131 IS 3 BP 425 EP 445 DI 10.1007/BF02707911 PG 21 WC Economics; International Relations SC Business & Economics; International Relations GA TA958 UT WOS:A1995TA95800001 ER PT J AU CARROLL, CD FUHRER, JC WILCOX, DW AF CARROLL, CD FUHRER, JC WILCOX, DW TI DOES CONSUMER SENTIMENT FORECAST HOUSEHOLD SPENDING - IF SO, WHY SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID PERMANENT INCOME HYPOTHESIS; EQUITY PREMIUM; CONSUMPTION; PUZZLE C1 FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,RES DEPT,BOSTON,MA 02106. FED RESERVE BOARD,DIV MONETARY AFFAIRS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP CARROLL, CD (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,DIV RES & STAT,STOP 80,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. RI Fuhrer, Jeff/F-8852-2013 NR 16 TC 149 Z9 151 U1 2 U2 12 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD DEC PY 1994 VL 84 IS 5 BP 1397 EP 1408 PG 12 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PY382 UT WOS:A1994PY38200015 ER PT J AU BOSCHEN, JF OTROK, CM AF BOSCHEN, JF OTROK, CM TI LONG-RUN NEUTRALITY AND SUPERNEUTRALITY IN AN ARIMA FRAMEWORK - COMMENT SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article C1 FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND, RES DEPT, RICHMOND, VA 23261 USA. RP BOSCHEN, JF (reprint author), COLL WILLIAM & MARY, SCH BUSINESS ADM, WILLIAMSBURG, VA 23187 USA. RI Otrok, Christopher/B-6507-2008 NR 9 TC 17 Z9 18 U1 0 U2 4 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD DEC PY 1994 VL 84 IS 5 BP 1470 EP 1473 PG 4 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PY382 UT WOS:A1994PY38200021 ER PT J AU BARKEMA, A AF BARKEMA, A TI THE CHANGING STRUCTURE OF THE US FOOD SYSTEM SO CANADIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS-REVUE CANADIENNE D ECONOMIE RURALE LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 1994 Annual Meeting of the Canadian-Agricultural-Economics-and-Farm-Management-Society: Changing Land Tenure - Who Owns the Farm CY JUL 10-14, 1994 CL REGINA, CANADA SP Canadian Agr Econ & Farm Management Soc RP BARKEMA, A (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK KANSAS CITY,KANSAS CITY,MO 64198, USA. NR 20 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 1 PU CANADIAN AGR ECON & FARM MANAGEMENT SOC PI OTTAWA PA 151 SLATER ST SUITE 907, OTTAWA ON K1P 5H4, CANADA SN 0008-3976 J9 CAN J AGR ECON JI Can. J. Agric. Econ.-Rev. Can. Econ. Rural. PD DEC PY 1994 VL 42 IS 4 BP 541 EP 547 DI 10.1111/j.1744-7976.1994.tb00048.x PG 7 WC Agricultural Economics & Policy; Economics SC Agriculture; Business & Economics GA RF332 UT WOS:A1994RF33200013 ER PT J AU JORDAN, JL AF JORDAN, JL TI A MARKET APPROACH TO BANKING REGULATION SO CATO JOURNAL LA English DT Article RP JORDAN, JL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44114, USA. NR 23 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 1 PU CATO INSTITUTE PI WASHINGTON PA 1000 MASSACHUSETTS AVE., NW #6, WASHINGTON, DC 20001-5403 SN 0273-3072 J9 CATO J JI Cato J. PD WIN PY 1994 VL 13 IS 3 BP 315 EP 332 PG 18 WC Public Administration SC Public Administration GA QG064 UT WOS:A1994QG06400001 ER PT J AU CLAIR, RT ODRISCOLL, GP YEATS, KJ AF CLAIR, RT ODRISCOLL, GP YEATS, KJ TI IS BANKING DIFFERENT - A REEXAMINATION OF THE CASE FOR REGULATION SO CATO JOURNAL LA English DT Article RP CLAIR, RT (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,DALLAS,TX 75222, USA. NR 9 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 0 PU CATO INSTITUTE PI WASHINGTON PA 1000 MASSACHUSETTS AVE., NW #6, WASHINGTON, DC 20001-5403 SN 0273-3072 J9 CATO J JI Cato J. PD WIN PY 1994 VL 13 IS 3 BP 345 EP 358 PG 14 WC Public Administration SC Public Administration GA QG064 UT WOS:A1994QG06400004 ER PT J AU STERN, GH AF STERN, GH TI THE FEDS DUAL ROLE AND REGULATORY RESTRUCTURING SO CATO JOURNAL LA English DT Article RP STERN, GH (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU CATO INSTITUTE PI WASHINGTON PA 1000 MASSACHUSETTS AVE., NW #6, WASHINGTON, DC 20001-5403 SN 0273-3072 J9 CATO J JI Cato J. PD WIN PY 1994 VL 13 IS 3 BP 383 EP 385 PG 3 WC Public Administration SC Public Administration GA QG064 UT WOS:A1994QG06400007 ER PT J AU SHAFFER, S AF SHAFFER, S TI MARKET VALUE ACCOUNTING - A GUIDE FOR SAFE AND SOUND BANKING SO CATO JOURNAL LA English DT Article ID EXPENSE-PREFERENCE BEHAVIOR RP SHAFFER, S (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 30 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 1 U2 1 PU CATO INSTITUTE PI WASHINGTON PA 1000 MASSACHUSETTS AVE., NW #6, WASHINGTON, DC 20001-5403 SN 0273-3072 J9 CATO J JI Cato J. PD WIN PY 1994 VL 13 IS 3 BP 387 EP 402 PG 16 WC Public Administration SC Public Administration GA QG064 UT WOS:A1994QG06400008 ER PT J AU JONES, C AF JONES, C TI THE INTEREST SENSITIVITY OF WEALTH IN THE LIFE-CYCLE MODEL SO ECONOMICS LETTERS LA English DT Article AB This paper examines Modigliani's (American Economic Review, 1986, 76, 297-313) conjecture that in the simple life cycle model with Leontief consumption preferences, an increase in the interest rate from zero will cause aggregate wealth to decline. I find that the conjecture does not hold in general, but depends on the age of retirement. RP JONES, C (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV MONETARY AFFAIRS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0165-1765 J9 ECON LETT JI Econ. Lett. PD DEC PY 1994 VL 46 IS 4 BP 333 EP 337 PG 5 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PU020 UT WOS:A1994PU02000006 ER PT J AU LINK, AN KAPUR, P AF LINK, AN KAPUR, P TI A NOTE ON THE DIFFUSION OF FLEXIBLE MANUFACTURING SYSTEMS TECHNOLOGY SO ECONOMICS LETTERS LA English DT Note AB This paper examines the pattern of diffusion of flexible manufacturing systems (FMS) technology across firms in the U.S. tooling and machining industry. Evidence is presented regarding the importance of compatibility standards in determining the timing of adoptions of FMS technology. C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC. RP LINK, AN (reprint author), UNIV N CAROLINA,DEPT ECON,GREENSBORO,NC 27412, USA. NR 18 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0165-1765 J9 ECON LETT JI Econ. Lett. PD DEC PY 1994 VL 46 IS 4 BP 369 EP 374 PG 6 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PU020 UT WOS:A1994PU02000011 ER PT J AU CRABBE, LE HELWEGE, J AF CRABBE, LE HELWEGE, J TI ALTERNATIVE TESTS OF AGENCY THEORIES OF CALLABLE CORPORATE-BONDS SO FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB According to agency theories, the prevalence of callable bonds arises from asymmetric information, a risk incentive or asset substitution problem, or an underinvestment problem. These theories are difficult to distinguish empirically because there are no direct measures of agency costs. Previous studies have found support for agency theories as a group, focusing on whether a bond has a call provision. We examine several areas in which the various theories are distinguishable: the subsequent rating changes of the bonds, the distribution of first call dates, the investment activity of bond issuers, and the value of the call options. We also examine trends in the use of call options over time. Based on a sample of industrial bonds issued between 1987 and 1991, our alternative tests provide evidence against the three agency theories. We conclude that agency theory, while potentially important for some firms, is unlikely to be the most important explanation of callable corporate bonds. C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY. RP CRABBE, LE (reprint author), MERRILL LYNCH & CO INC,NEW YORK,NY 10080, USA. NR 21 TC 15 Z9 15 U1 0 U2 1 PU FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT ASSN COLL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION PI TAMPA PA UNIV SOUTH FLORIDA, 4202 FOWLER AVE, TAMPA, FL 33620 SN 0046-3892 J9 FINANC MANAGE JI Financ. Manage. PD WIN PY 1994 VL 23 IS 4 BP 3 EP 20 DI 10.2307/3666079 PG 18 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA QM764 UT WOS:A1994QM76400001 ER PT J AU NASON, JM COGLEY, T AF NASON, JM COGLEY, T TI TESTING THE IMPLICATIONS OF LONG-RUN NEUTRALITY FOR MONETARY BUSINESS-CYCLE MODELS SO JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS LA English DT Article ID IS-LM MODEL; SUPPLY DISTURBANCES; AGGREGATE DEMAND; LIQUIDITY AB This paper compares sample fluctuations of the US business cycle with those predicted by a class of equilibrium monetary business cycle models. The predictions of the models are generated using the long-run neutrality restrictions implicit in the models. By imposing these restrictions on sample data, tests of the ability of the models to replicate the dynamics of the US business cycle are constructed. Although the predictions of the models for real side variables are rejected, there is evidence that the nominal side predictions of the models are not rejected. C1 FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO,RES DEPT,SAN FRANCISCO,CA. RP NASON, JM (reprint author), UNIV BRITISH COLUMBIA,DEPT ECON,BUCHANAN TOWER,1873 E MALL,VANCOUVER,BC V6T 1Z1,CANADA. NR 26 TC 14 Z9 14 U1 0 U2 2 PU JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD PI W SUSSEX PA BAFFINS LANE CHICHESTER, W SUSSEX, ENGLAND PO19 1UD SN 0883-7252 J9 J APPL ECONOM JI J. Appl. Econom. PD DEC PY 1994 VL 9 SU S BP S37 EP S70 DI 10.1002/jae.3950090504 PG 34 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA QG448 UT WOS:A1994QG44800003 ER PT J AU SHAFFER, S DISALVO, J AF SHAFFER, S DISALVO, J TI CONDUCT IN A BANKING DUOPOLY SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE BANKING; DUOPOLY; CONDUCT ID CONJECTURAL VARIATIONS; COMPETITION; OLIGOPOLY; INDUSTRY; MARKET AB This article applies two modern empirical tests of conduct to a duopoly banking market in south central Pennsylvania. The results provide a concrete counterexample to the presumption that high structural concentration must preclude substantially competitive conduct. RP SHAFFER, S (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,RES DEPT,10 INDEPENDENCE MALL,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 54 TC 43 Z9 46 U1 0 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD DEC PY 1994 VL 18 IS 6 BP 1063 EP 1082 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(94)00060-3 PG 20 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA PY245 UT WOS:A1994PY24500003 ER PT J AU MIZRACH, B AF MIZRACH, B TI EXCHANGE-RATE THEORY - CHAOTIC MODELS OF FOREIGN-EXCHANGE MARKETS - DEGRAUWE,P, DEWACHTER,H, EMBRECHTS,M SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION LA English DT Book Review ID STOCK RP MIZRACH, B (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. RI Mizrach, Bruce/B-1347-2009 NR 7 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-2681 J9 J ECON BEHAV ORGAN JI J. Econ. Behav. Organ. PD DEC PY 1994 VL 25 IS 3 BP 473 EP 475 DI 10.1016/0167-2681(94)90111-2 PG 3 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QD051 UT WOS:A1994QD05100009 ER PT J AU AUERBACH, AJ GOKHALE, J KOTLIKOFF, LJ AF AUERBACH, AJ GOKHALE, J KOTLIKOFF, LJ TI GENERATIONAL ACCOUNTING - A MEANINGFUL WAY TO EVALUATE FISCAL-POLICY SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Article ID BUDGET DEFICITS; INTEREST-RATES C1 NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH. BOSTON UNIV,BOSTON,MA 02215. RP AUERBACH, AJ (reprint author), UNIV PENN,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104, USA. NR 23 TC 90 Z9 91 U1 2 U2 6 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0895-3309 J9 J ECON PERSPECT JI J. Econ. Perspect. PD WIN PY 1994 VL 8 IS 1 BP 73 EP 94 PG 22 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NC002 UT WOS:A1994NC00200006 ER PT J AU BULLARD, J AF BULLARD, J TI LEARNING EQUILIBRIA SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article ID CONVERGENCE; VARIABLES AB Complicated equilibrium trajectories under least squared learning are shown to exist in a standard version of the overlapping generations model. These trajectories exist when the locally unique perfect foresight equilibrium is the monetary steady state, and thus are induced by the introduction of learning alone. This research confirms the intuition of some previous authors, who have suggested that stationary equilibrium trajectories under learning may differ from those under rational expectations. (C) 1994 Academic Press, Inc. RP BULLARD, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ST LOUIS,ST LOUIS,MO 63102, USA. RI Bullard, James/L-8120-2016 OI Bullard, James/0000-0002-1142-6803 NR 19 TC 54 Z9 54 U1 0 U2 2 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525B STREET, SUITE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0022-0531 J9 J ECON THEORY JI J. Econ. Theory PD DEC PY 1994 VL 64 IS 2 BP 468 EP 485 DI 10.1006/jeth.1994.1077 PG 18 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QL360 UT WOS:A1994QL36000007 ER PT J AU AHMED, S PARK, JH AF AHMED, S PARK, JH TI SOURCES OF MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS IN SMALL OPEN ECONOMIES SO JOURNAL OF MACROECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID CURRENT ACCOUNT; TRADE; COINTEGRATION; DEMAND; TERMS AB This paper examines the sources of economic fluctuations in seven OECD small open economies. We measure the relative contribution of external shocks and country-specific aggregate demand and supply disturbances (internal shocks) in explaining short-term movements of output, inflation and the trade balance. We find: (i) output fluctuations are primarily explained by domestic supply shocks, (ii) trade balance movements are explained mostly by domestic absorption shocks, and (iii) spillover effects of external shocks on the domestic economy are primarily on nominal, rather than real, variables. We conclude that, while domestic absorption policies like fiscal restraint may improve the trade balance, they cannot stabilize output. C1 FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,PHILADELPHIA,PA. KOREA INST FINANCE,SEOUL,SOUTH KOREA. RP AHMED, S (reprint author), PENN STATE UNIV,UNIV PK,PA 16802, USA. NR 25 TC 23 Z9 25 U1 0 U2 5 PU LOUISIANA STATE UNIV PR PI BATON ROUGE PA BATON ROUGE, LA 70893 SN 0164-0704 J9 J MACROECON JI J. Macroecon. PD WIN PY 1994 VL 16 IS 1 BP 1 EP 36 DI 10.1016/0164-0704(94)90042-6 PG 36 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA MP064 UT WOS:A1994MP06400001 ER PT J AU BALKE, NS EMERY, KM AF BALKE, NS EMERY, KM TI THE ALGEBRA OF PRICE STABILITY SO JOURNAL OF MACROECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID TREND-STATIONARITY; MONETARY-POLICY; INFLATION; RULES; MODEL AB In this paper, we propose two definitions of price stability that encompass the interpretations of price stability found in the economic literature. To determine the conditions under which monetary policy can achieve price stability, we examine several well-known classes of monetary rules including the targeting of monetary aggregates, nominal GNP, prices, and interest rates. In addition, we use a linear rational expectations model to explore the degree to which price stability constrains short-term stabilization policy. We find that price stability does not necessarily prevent the monetary authority from pursuing short-term stabilization goals. C1 FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,DALLAS,TX. RP BALKE, NS (reprint author), SO METHODIST UNIV,DALLAS,TX 75275, USA. NR 29 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 3 PU LOUISIANA STATE UNIV PR PI BATON ROUGE PA BATON ROUGE, LA 70893 SN 0164-0704 J9 J MACROECON JI J. Macroecon. PD WIN PY 1994 VL 16 IS 1 BP 77 EP 97 DI 10.1016/0164-0704(94)90045-0 PG 21 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA MP064 UT WOS:A1994MP06400004 ER PT J AU MENDOZA, EG RAZIN, A TESAR, LL AF MENDOZA, EG RAZIN, A TESAR, LL TI EFFECTIVE TAX RATES IN MACROECONOMICS - CROSS-COUNTRY ESTIMATES OF TAX RATES ON FACTOR INCOMES AND CONSUMPTION SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE INTERNATIONAL TAX POLICY; EFFECTIVE TAX RATES; CONSUMPTION TAX; FACTOR INCOME TAXES ID SOCIAL-SECURITY; ECONOMIC-GROWTH; UNITED-STATES; EQUILIBRIUM; POLICY AB This paper proposes a method for computing tax rates using national accounts and revenue statistics. Using this method we construct time series of tax rates for large industrial countries. The method identifies the revenue raised by different taxes at the general government level and defines aggregate measures of the corresponding tax bases. This method yields estimates of effective tax rates on factor incomes and consumption consistent with the tax distortions faced by a representative agent in a general equilibrium framework. These tax rates compare favorably with existing estimates of marginal tax rates, and highlight important international differences in tax policy. C1 UNIV CALIF SANTA BARBARA,SANTA BARBARA,CA 93906. NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. TEL AVIV UNIV,IL-69978 TEL AVIV,ISRAEL. RP MENDOZA, EG (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 31 TC 312 Z9 314 U1 5 U2 23 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD DEC PY 1994 VL 34 IS 3 BP 297 EP 323 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(94)90021-3 PG 27 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA QG343 UT WOS:A1994QG34300001 ER PT J AU CHAMP, B WALLACE, N WEBER, WE AF CHAMP, B WALLACE, N WEBER, WE TI INTEREST-RATES UNDER THE UNITED-STATES-NATIONAL-BANKING-SYSTEM SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE NATIONAL BANKING SYSTEM; INTEREST RATES; BANK NOTES AB According to previous studies, the demand-liability feature of national bank notes did not present a problem for note-issuing banks because the nonbank public treated notes and other currency as perfect substitutes. However, that view, when combined with nonbindingness of the collateral restriction against note issue, itself an implication of the fact that some eligible collateral was not used for that purpose, implies that the safe short-term interest rate is pegged at the tax rate on note circulation. Since evidence on short-term interest rates is inconsistent with such a peg, that view must be rejected. C1 FED RESERVE BANK,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. FORDHAM UNIV,BRONX,NY 10458. UNIV MIAMI,CORAL GABLES,FL 33124. UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. NR 8 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD DEC PY 1994 VL 34 IS 3 BP 343 EP 358 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(94)90023-X PG 16 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA QG343 UT WOS:A1994QG34300003 ER PT J AU BRYSON, JH AF BRYSON, JH TI FISCAL-POLICY COORDINATION AND FLEXIBILITY UNDER EUROPEAN-MONETARY-UNION - IMPLICATIONS FOR MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION SO JOURNAL OF POLICY MODELING LA English DT Article AB Some writers have proposed that under European Monetary Union (EMU) fiscal policies should be coordinated to reduce the degree of fiscal activism required for macroeconomic stabilization. We show that, in theory, fiscal policy coordination indeed may lower the degree of fiscal flexibility needed to stabilize a common supply shock. However, fiscal policy coordination may raise the degree of fiscal flexibility needed to stabilize an asymmetric demand shock. These theoretical findings are supported by simulations performed with the multi-country model of the Federal Reserve Board. The results suggest that fiscal policy coordination under EMU may require more fiscal activism rather than less. RP BRYSON, JH (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV INT FINANCE,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 17 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0161-8938 J9 J POLICY MODEL JI J. Policy Model. PD DEC PY 1994 VL 16 IS 6 BP 541 EP 557 DI 10.1016/0161-8938(94)90007-8 PG 17 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PY567 UT WOS:A1994PY56700001 ER PT J AU SWAMY, PAVB THURMAN, SS AF SWAMY, PAVB THURMAN, SS TI EXCHANGE-RATE EPISODES AND THE PASS-THROUGH OF EXCHANGE-RATES TO IMPORT PRICES SO JOURNAL OF POLICY MODELING LA English DT Article AB This study uses a variable coefficient estimator with concomitant variables to examine the episodical variation of the pass-through of exchange rate and foreign cost changes to import prices. The hypothesis being tested is that this pass-through to domestic import prices is stronger during periods of pronounced episodes of exchange rate depreciation and low foreign firm profit margins, and is considerably weaker during prolonged periods of exchange rate appreciation and build-up of foreign firm profit margins. Two concomitant variables, measuring duration of exchange rate episode and ratio of foreign producer export prices to costs, demonstrate that the coefficients associated with pass-through vary predictably over time. The results suggest that policy analysts should be keely aware that simulated or expected episodes of exchange rate and foreign firm profit margin behavior will impart differing strengths to the pass-through of exchange rates and foreign costs to import prices. C1 ORG ECON COOPERAT & DEV, PARIS, FRANCE. RP SWAMY, PAVB (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST, BOARD GOVERNORS, DIV RES & STAT, WASHINGTON, DC 20551 USA. NR 14 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0161-8938 EI 1873-8060 J9 J POLICY MODEL JI J. Policy Model. PD DEC PY 1994 VL 16 IS 6 BP 609 EP 623 DI 10.1016/0161-8938(94)90011-6 PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PY567 UT WOS:A1994PY56700005 ER PT J AU GORDON, DB LEEPER, EM AF GORDON, DB LEEPER, EM TI THE DYNAMIC IMPACTS OF MONETARY-POLICY - AN EXERCISE IN TENTATIVE IDENTIFICATION SO JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Article ID TIME-SERIES FACTS AB It is currently popular to identify monetary policy shocks with innovations in some measure of reserves or in the federal funds rate. These assumptions about the interest elasticity of the supply of or demand for reserves imply monetary policy shocks that produce dynamic responses of macroeconomic variables that are anomalous relative to traditional monetary analyses. This paper tentatively identifies supply and demand shocks in the markets for reserves and M2 for the 1980s and contrasts them with results for the 1970s. In the later period, identified monetary policy shocks have dynamic impacts that are fully consistent with traditional analyses. C1 FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,ATLANTA,GA. RP GORDON, DB (reprint author), CLEMSON UNIV,CLEMSON,SC 29631, USA. NR 18 TC 113 Z9 119 U1 0 U2 3 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0022-3808 J9 J POLIT ECON JI J. Polit. Econ. PD DEC PY 1994 VL 102 IS 6 BP 1228 EP 1247 DI 10.1086/261969 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PY164 UT WOS:A1994PY16400006 ER PT J AU KOTLIKOFF, LJ GOKHALE, J AF KOTLIKOFF, LJ GOKHALE, J TI PASSING THE GENERATIONAL BUCK SO PUBLIC INTEREST LA English DT Article C1 FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH. RP KOTLIKOFF, LJ (reprint author), BOSTON UNIV,BOSTON,MA 02215, USA. NR 0 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU NATL AFFAIRS INC PI WASHINGTON PA 1112 16TH ST NW, SUITE 530, WASHINGTON, DC 20036 SN 0033-3557 J9 PUBLIC INTEREST JI Public Interest PD WIN PY 1994 IS 114 BP 73 EP 81 PG 9 WC Public Administration; Social Issues SC Public Administration; Social Issues GA MQ587 UT WOS:A1994MQ58700006 ER PT J AU BOYD, JH JAGANNATHAN, R AF BOYD, JH JAGANNATHAN, R TI EX-DIVIDEND PRICE BEHAVIOR OF COMMON-STOCKS SO REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES LA English DT Article ID TAX AB This study examines common stock prices around ex-dividend dates. Such price data usually contain a mixture of observations-some with and some without arbitrageurs and/or dividend capturers active. Our theory predicts that such mixing will result in a nonlinear relation between percentage price drop and dividend yield-not the commonly assumed linear relation. This prediction and another important prediction of theory are supported empirically. In a variety of tests, marginal price drop is not significantly different from the dividend amount. Thus, over the last several decades, one-for-one marginal price drop has been an excellent (average) rule of thumb. C1 UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. RP BOYD, JH (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,POB 291,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480, USA. NR 16 TC 54 Z9 54 U1 1 U2 6 PU OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC PI CARY PA JOURNALS DEPT, 2001 EVANS RD, CARY, NC 27513 SN 0893-9454 J9 REV FINANC STUD JI Rev. Financ. Stud. PD WIN PY 1994 VL 7 IS 4 BP 711 EP 741 DI 10.1093/rfs/7.4.711 PG 31 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA PZ223 UT WOS:A1994PZ22300004 ER PT J AU HELWEGE, J WAGNER, J AF HELWEGE, J WAGNER, J TI THE (DIS)SIMILARITY OF INTERINDUSTRY WAGE DIFFERENTIALS IN GERMANY AND THE UNITED-STATES - EVIDENCE FROM MICRODATA SO JAHRBUCHER FUR NATIONALOKONOMIE UND STATISTIK LA English DT Article AB This study compares interindustry wages differentials in the U.S. and Germany using large microdata samples from wage surveys in 1979, 1985, and 1987. In contrast to previous studies, which found correlations of wage differentials in Germany and the U.S. of .85 and .95, we find less similarity in the wage structures of the two countries - the unweighted correlations between wage differentials based on the 1979 surveys and based on the later surveys are both about .6 and weighted correlations are as low as .22. C1 UNIV LUNEBURG,INST VOLKSWIRTSCHAFTSLEHRE,D-21332 LUNEBURG,GERMANY. RP HELWEGE, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. RI Wagner, Joachim/D-8156-2012 OI Wagner, Joachim/0000-0001-6058-4536 NR 12 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU GUSTAV FISCHER VERLAG PI JENA PA VILLENGANG 2, D-07745 JENA, GERMANY SN 0021-4027 J9 JAHRB NATL STAT JI Jahrb. Natl. Okon. Stat. PD NOV PY 1994 VL 213 IS 6 BP 670 EP 679 PG 10 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA PU593 UT WOS:A1994PU59300003 ER PT J AU THORNTON, DL AF THORNTON, DL TI WHY DO T-BILL RATES REACT TO DISCOUNT RATE CHANGES SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article RP THORNTON, DL (reprint author), FED RES BANK,ST LOUIS,MO 63102, USA. NR 21 TC 9 Z9 9 U1 0 U2 1 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1994 VL 26 IS 4 BP 839 EP 850 DI 10.2307/2077950 PG 12 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA PU338 UT WOS:A1994PU33800006 ER PT J AU CHANG, R AF CHANG, R TI ENDOGENOUS CURRENCY SUBSTITUTION, INFLATIONARY FINANCE, AND WELFARE SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID REAL EXCHANGE-RATE; MONEY; TAX RP CHANG, R (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,ATLANTA,GA 30303, USA. NR 20 TC 12 Z9 12 U1 0 U2 2 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1994 VL 26 IS 4 BP 903 EP 916 DI 10.2307/2077955 PG 14 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA PU338 UT WOS:A1994PU33800011 ER PT J AU MUEHLEN, PV AF MUEHLEN, PV TI AN OPTIMAL INTEREST-RATE RULE WITH INFORMATION FROM MONEY AND AUCTION MARKETS SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID MONETARY-POLICY; WAGE INDEXATION; MODEL RP MUEHLEN, PV (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,DIV RES & STAT,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 16 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1994 VL 26 IS 4 BP 917 EP 933 PG 17 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA PU338 UT WOS:A1994PU33800012 ER PT J AU ROBERDS, W AF ROBERDS, W TI INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT - CAUSES, CONSEQUENCES, AND CURES - DAWSON,G SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Book Review RP ROBERDS, W (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,ATLANTA,GA 30303, USA. NR 5 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1994 VL 26 IS 4 BP 951 EP 952 DI 10.2307/2077959 PG 2 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA PU338 UT WOS:A1994PU33800015 ER PT J AU NAKAMURA, LI LANG, WW AF NAKAMURA, LI LANG, WW TI INFORMATION AND SCREENING IN REAL-ESTATE FINANCE - AN INTRODUCTION SO JOURNAL OF REAL ESTATE FINANCE AND ECONOMICS LA English DT Editorial Material ID MODEL; MARKETS; PRICE C1 OFF COMPTROLLER CURRENCY,WASHINGTON,DC 20219. RP NAKAMURA, LI (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,RES DEPT,10 INDEPENDENCE MALL,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 11 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 0 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0895-5638 J9 J REAL ESTATE FINANC JI J. Real Estate Financ. Econ. PD NOV PY 1994 VL 9 IS 3 BP 171 EP 176 DI 10.1007/BF01099270 PG 6 WC Business, Finance; Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA PV600 UT WOS:A1994PV60000001 ER PT J AU MESTER, LJ AF MESTER, LJ TI BORROWER AND NEIGHBORHOOD RACIAL AND INCOME CHARACTERISTICS AND FINANCIAL INSTITUTION MORTGAGE APPLICATION SCREENING - COMMENTS SO JOURNAL OF REAL ESTATE FINANCE AND ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Information and Screening in Real Estate Finance CY MAR 03-04, 1994 CL PHILADELPHIA, PA SP J Real Estate Finance & Econ, Fed Reserve Bank Philadelphia RP MESTER, LJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,RES DEPT,10 INDEPENDENCE MALL,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0895-5638 J9 J REAL ESTATE FINANC JI J. Real Estate Financ. Econ. PD NOV PY 1994 VL 9 IS 3 BP 241 EP 243 DI 10.1007/BF01099276 PG 3 WC Business, Finance; Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA PV600 UT WOS:A1994PV60000007 ER PT J AU DUCA, JV AF DUCA, JV TI PERFORMANCE OF RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGES IN LOW-INCOME AND MODERATE-INCOME NEIGHBORHOODS - COMMENTS SO JOURNAL OF REAL ESTATE FINANCE AND ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Information and Screening in Real Estate Finance CY MAR 03-04, 1994 CL PHILADELPHIA, PA SP J Real Estate Finance & Econ, Fed Reserve Bank Philadelphia RP DUCA, JV (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,RES DEPT,2200 N PEARL ST,DALLAS,TX 75201, USA. NR 3 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0895-5638 J9 J REAL ESTATE FINANC JI J. Real Estate Financ. Econ. PD NOV PY 1994 VL 9 IS 3 BP 261 EP 262 DI 10.1007/BF01099278 PG 2 WC Business, Finance; Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA PV600 UT WOS:A1994PV60000009 ER PT J AU BERKOVEC, JA CANNER, GB GABRIEL, SA HANNAN, TH AF BERKOVEC, JA CANNER, GB GABRIEL, SA HANNAN, TH TI RACE, REDLINING, AND RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE LOAN PERFORMANCE SO JOURNAL OF REAL ESTATE FINANCE AND ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Information and Screening in Real Estate Finance CY MAR 03-04, 1994 CL PHILADELPHIA, PA SP J Real Estate Finance & Econ, Fed Reserve Bank Philadelphia DE DEFAULT; DISCRIMINATION ID DEFAULT RISK AB Theories of discrimination in credit markets suggest that under certain circumstances systematic lender bias may result in creditors holding minority applicants or applicants from minority neighborhoods to higher standards of creditworthiness than other borrowers. This implies lower default rates or smaller dollar losses on loans to marginally qualified minority borrowers or borrowers from minority neighborhoods, compared to loans extended to other similarly qualified borrowers. This study seeks to test this prediction by examining the default-risk characteristics of FHA-insured single-family residential mortgages. All things equal, empirical findings fail to support the theoretical predictions that observed default rates are relatively lower among minority borrowers or neighborhoods. C1 UNIV SO CALIF,GRAD SCH BUSINESS ADM,LOS ANGELES,CA 90089. RP BERKOVEC, JA (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 27 TC 57 Z9 57 U1 0 U2 8 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0895-5638 J9 J REAL ESTATE FINANC JI J. Real Estate Financ. Econ. PD NOV PY 1994 VL 9 IS 3 BP 263 EP 294 DI 10.1007/BF01099279 PG 32 WC Business, Finance; Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA PV600 UT WOS:A1994PV60000010 ER PT J AU FIELEKE, NS AF FIELEKE, NS TI IS GLOBAL COMPETITION MAKING THE POOR EVEN POORER SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID RELATIVE WAGES; INEQUALITY AB In recent years, average real wages have fallen, while the distribution of income has become less equal. This applies not just to the United States, but to a number of countries. At the same time, ''globalization'' has intensified, as national economies have become more closely connected through increased international commerce. Has globalization depressed wages and exacerbated inequality? To address this issue, this article first presents some summary data on globalization and income distribution. Consideration is then given to various explanations of increasing income inequality. The author concludes that convincing evidence has not yet been marshaled to support the hypothesis that increased globalization has contributed substantially to greater inequality, although globalization remains suspect. He ends the article with some recommendations for policy. RP FIELEKE, NS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA, USA. NR 39 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD NOV-DEC PY 1994 BP 3 EP 16 PG 14 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QD831 UT WOS:A1994QD83100001 ER PT J AU CLAYTONMATTHEWS, A KODRZYCKI, YK SWAINE, D AF CLAYTONMATTHEWS, A KODRZYCKI, YK SWAINE, D TI INDEXES OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS - WHAT CAN THEY TELL US ABOUT THE NEW-ENGLAND ECONOMY SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID COINTEGRATION VECTORS; MODELS AB This article explores the development of composite coincident indexes summarizing the condition of the economy of New England and its six states. The authors conclude that continued attempts to construct coincident economic indexes at the regional level are worthwhile, for several reasons. A widely accepted and used index for the region does not exist, although recent advances in statistical methodologies make such indexes possible and practical. Second, the indexes presented are in accord with what knowledgeable observers believe about the New England economy and are less noisy than the observable data from which they are generated. Their timeliness may at least partially fill the information gap created by the lag in regional statistics, especially with regard to personal income and gross state product. Finally, a methodology similar to the one employed in this paper could be used in the development of additional indexes of regional activity that could help in either analyzing current conditions or making forecasts. C1 FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA. NR 36 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 1 U2 3 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD NOV-DEC PY 1994 BP 17 EP 41 PG 25 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QD831 UT WOS:A1994QD83100002 ER PT J AU DEKASER, RJ LITTLE, JS AF DEKASER, RJ LITTLE, JS TI EXPLAINING NEW-ENGLAND EXPORT PERFORMANCE - 1987 TO 1993 SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB The recession of the early 1990s hit New England much harder than the nation. Presumably, thus, New England firms are highly motivated to seek rapidly growing markets wherever they may be--including overseas. During the 1990-91 downturn, real net exports cut the depth of the U.S. recession by half. Looking ahead, moreover, recent forecasts by the International Monetary Fund suggest that world growth will outpace U.S. growth in 1995. Despite New Englanders' obvious incentive to explore burgeoning foreign markets, however, the best available data indicate that the region underperformed the nation in terms of export growth from 1987 to 1993. This article explores the reasons for the region's below-average merchandise export growth and concludes that it largely reflects the relative importance of the regional computer industry and its recent structural problems, not a pervasive ''exporting problem.'' Also contributing are New England exporters' traditional ties to markets in mature industrial countries, such as Atlantic Rim countries, which suffered severe recessions from 1990 to 1993. As the authors point out, however, merchandise exports represent only one route to foreign consumers. New Englanders are also reaching vibrant foreign markets, such as Asia or Latin America, through exports of services and through sales made by foreign affiliates of New England firms. The ongoing restructuring of the regional economy suggests that these alternative paths are likely to become increasingly important over time. RP DEKASER, RJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA, USA. NR 1 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD NOV-DEC PY 1994 BP 43 EP 57 PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QD831 UT WOS:A1994QD83100003 ER PT J AU GEWEKE, J KEANE, M RUNKLE, D AF GEWEKE, J KEANE, M RUNKLE, D TI ALTERNATIVE COMPUTATIONAL APPROACHES TO INFERENCE IN THE MULTINOMIAL PROBIT MODEL SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID ESTIMABILITY; INTEGRATION; SIMULATION AB This research compares several approaches to inference in the multinomial probit model, based on two Monte Carlo experiments for a seven choice model. The methods compared are the simulated maximum likelihood estimator using the GHK recursive probability simulator, the method of simulated moments estimator using the GHK recursive simulator and kernel-smoothed frequency simulators, and posterior means using a Gibbs sampling-data augmentation algorithm. Overall, the Gibbs sampling algorithm has a slight edge, with the relative performance of MSM and SML based on the GHK simulator being difficult to evaluate. The MSM estimator with the kernel-smoothed frequency simulator is clearly inferior. C1 UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. RP GEWEKE, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN, USA. RI Keane, Michael/O-2840-2013 OI Keane, Michael/0000-0002-3918-1377 NR 34 TC 121 Z9 122 U1 0 U2 4 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD NOV PY 1994 VL 76 IS 4 BP 609 EP 632 DI 10.2307/2109766 PG 24 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA PZ343 UT WOS:A1994PZ34300002 ER PT J AU SIMON, DP AF SIMON, DP TI THE TREASURYS EXPERIMENT WITH SINGLE-PRICE AUCTIONS IN THE MID-1970S - WINNERS OR TAXPAYERS CURSE SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article AB This study examines the Treasury's experiment with single-price bond auctions in the mid-1970s and finds that controlling for factors unrelated to auction technique, markups of auction average rates over when-issued rates shortly after auctions were a statistically significant seven to eight basis points higher at single-price auctions than at discriminating-price auctions. These results suggest that single-price auctions raised Treasury borrowing costs by roughly 3/4% of the issuing price of auctioned securities. RP SIMON, DP (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 15 TC 17 Z9 18 U1 0 U2 1 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD NOV PY 1994 VL 76 IS 4 BP 754 EP 760 DI 10.2307/2109776 PG 7 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA PZ343 UT WOS:A1994PZ34300012 ER PT J AU BELONGIA, MT KLIESEN, KL AF BELONGIA, MT KLIESEN, KL TI EFFECTS ON INTEREST-RATES OF IMMEDIATELY RELEASING FOMC DIRECTIVES SO CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY LA English DT Article AB Prior to February 1994, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did not officially release its current Domestic Policy Directives to the public until after the next FOMC meeting, a lag of approximately 45 days. Thus, the public never knew the FOMC's latest decisions about short-run monetary policy. On 11 occasions between early 1989 and May 1993, however, the essence of the directives was ''leaked'' to the Wall Street Journal within one week of an FOMC meeting. This study tests Federal Reserve officials' original assertion that early release of directives would increase volatility in financial markets by creating announcement effects. The study finds some evidence of announcement effects in certain instances, but the assertion that an immediate release would ''roil the markets'' appears unfounded. C1 FED RES BANK,ST LOUIS,MO. RP BELONGIA, MT (reprint author), UNIV MISSISSIPPI,DEPT ECON & FINANCE,UNIVERSITY,MS 38677, USA. RI Kliesen, Kevin/I-5746-2016 OI Kliesen, Kevin/0000-0002-7166-6016 NR 19 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 1 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 SN 0735-0007 J9 CONTEMP ECON POLICY JI Contemp. Econ. Policy PD OCT PY 1994 VL 12 IS 4 BP 79 EP 91 PG 13 WC Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA PR698 UT WOS:A1994PR69800007 ER PT J AU BECSI, Z DUCA, JV AF BECSI, Z DUCA, JV TI ADDING BOND FUNDS TO M2 IN THE P-STAR MODEL OF INFLATION SO ECONOMICS LETTERS LA English DT Article AB During the early 1990s, M2 growth has been unusually weak and the P-Star model has underpredicted inflation; at the same time, bond funds have grown rapidly. We find that the P-Star model performs well recently when M2 is adjusted for bond funds. C1 FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,RES DEPT,POB 655906,DALLAS,TX 75265. NR 5 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0165-1765 J9 ECON LETT JI Econ. Lett. PD OCT PY 1994 VL 46 IS 2 BP 143 EP 147 DI 10.1016/0165-1765(94)90009-4 PG 5 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PM468 UT WOS:A1994PM46800007 ER PT J AU ALSTON, LJ GROVE, WA WHEELOCK, DC AF ALSTON, LJ GROVE, WA WHEELOCK, DC TI WHY DO BANKS FAIL - EVIDENCE FROM THE 1920S SO EXPLORATIONS IN ECONOMIC HISTORY LA English DT Article ID DEPOSIT INSURANCE AB This paper examines the causes of rural bank failures during the 1920s using a newly created state-level data series. By focusing on rural banks we are able to investigate the impacts of agricultural distress and government policies on the class of banks accounting for 80% of the failures in the decade. Failure rates were highest where farm acreage and land values had increased the most before 1920 because these regions suffered the worst agricultural distress subsequently. Agricultural distress caused more bank failures in states with deposit insurance systems, suggesting that insurance encouraged banks to increase risk as their net worth declined. (C) 1994 Academic Press, Inc. C1 SYRACUSE UNIV, DEPT ECON, SYRACUSE, NY 13244 USA. FED RESERVE BANK, RES DEPT, ST LOUIS, MO USA. RP ALSTON, LJ (reprint author), UNIV ILLINOIS, DEPT ECON, URBANA, IL 61801 USA. RI Wheelock, David/I-5757-2016 OI Wheelock, David/0000-0002-2702-8164 NR 50 TC 38 Z9 39 U1 0 U2 7 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0014-4983 J9 EXPLOR ECON HIST JI Explor. Econ. Hist. PD OCT PY 1994 VL 31 IS 4 BP 409 EP 431 DI 10.1006/exeh.1994.1017 PG 23 WC Economics; History Of Social Sciences SC Business & Economics; Social Sciences - Other Topics GA PP133 UT WOS:A1994PP13300001 ER PT J AU BOYD, JH SMITH, BD AF BOYD, JH SMITH, BD TI HOW GOOD ARE STANDARD DEBT CONTRACTS - STOCHASTIC VERSUS NONSTOCHASTIC MONITORING IN A COSTLY STATE VERIFICATION ENVIRONMENT SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS LA English DT Article ID FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION; BANKRUPTCY COSTS; WELFARE COSTS; UNITED-STATES; INSURANCE; TAX AB We investigate ex ante efficient contracts in an environment in which implementation is costless. In this environment, standard debt contracts will typically not be optimal. Optimal contracts may involve defaults, even in states in which the borrower is fully able to repay. We then examine the welfare costs of arbitrarily restricting the set of feasible contracts to standard debt contracts. When model parameters are calibrated to realistic values, the welfare loss from exogenously imposing this restriction is extremely small. Thus, if implementation costs are actually nontrivial (as seems likely), standard debt contracts will be (very close to) optimal. C1 UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. CORNELL UNIV,ITHACA,NY 14853. RP BOYD, JH (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN, USA. NR 27 TC 55 Z9 55 U1 8 U2 9 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0021-9398 J9 J BUS JI J. Bus. PD OCT PY 1994 VL 67 IS 4 BP 539 EP 561 DI 10.1086/296646 PG 23 WC Business SC Business & Economics GA PR438 UT WOS:A1994PR43800003 ER PT J AU GEWEKE, J AF GEWEKE, J TI BAYESIAN-ANALYSIS OF STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS - COMMENT SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS LA English DT Article C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. RP GEWEKE, J (reprint author), UNIV MINNESOTA,DEPT ECON,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455, USA. NR 5 TC 5 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 3 PU AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC PI ALEXANDRIA PA 1429 DUKE ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 SN 0735-0015 J9 J BUS ECON STAT JI J. Bus. Econ. Stat. PD OCT PY 1994 VL 12 IS 4 BP 397 EP 399 PG 3 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Mathematics GA PM465 UT WOS:A1994PM46500005 ER PT J AU WRIGHT, R AF WRIGHT, R TI A NOTE ON SUNSPOT EQUILIBRIA IN SEARCH MODELS OF FIAT MONEY SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Note AB Search models can generate an endogenous role for fiat money, in the sense that there exist equilibria where intrisically useless, unbacked, paper currency is valed due to its function as a medium of exchange. In this note, I ask if there exist sunspot equilibria in these models, where the value or acceptability of money fluctuates along with extrinsic random events even though the fundamentals of the economy are deterministic and time invariant. The answer is yes. C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55403. RP WRIGHT, R (reprint author), UNIV PENN,DEPT ECON,3718 LOCUST WALK,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104, USA. NR 9 TC 9 Z9 9 U1 0 U2 1 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0022-0531 J9 J ECON THEORY JI J. Econ. Theory PD OCT PY 1994 VL 64 IS 1 BP 234 EP 241 DI 10.1006/jeth.1994.1064 PG 8 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PM479 UT WOS:A1994PM47900014 ER PT J AU KUPIEC, PH AF KUPIEC, PH TI THE PERFORMANCE OF STANDARD-AND-POOR-500 FUTURES PRODUCT MARGINS UNDER THE SPAN MARGINING SYSTEM SO JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS LA English DT Article ID SETTLEMENT RP KUPIEC, PH (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV RES & STAT,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 15 TC 8 Z9 9 U1 0 U2 3 PU JOHN WILEY & SONS INC PI NEW YORK PA 605 THIRD AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10158-0012 SN 0270-7314 J9 J FUTURES MARKETS JI J. Futures Mark. PD OCT PY 1994 VL 14 IS 7 BP 789 EP 811 DI 10.1002/fut.3990140704 PG 23 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA PG777 UT WOS:A1994PG77700002 ER PT J AU BRAUN, RA AF BRAUN, RA TI HOW LARGE IS THE OPTIMAL INFLATION TAX SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE OPTIMAL INFLATION TAX; CASH-IN-ADVANCE ID CONSISTENT COVARIANCE-MATRIX; MONETARY-POLICY; PUBLIC-FINANCE; HETEROSKEDASTICITY; ECONOMY AB I examine the title question in a competitive framework where the transaction demand for money is modeled using a cash-in-advance constraint and only distortionary taxes are possible. Empirical evidence and simulations are used to document the plausibility of the assumptions which produce the Friedman rule; these findings suggest that it is not a good benchmark. My results suggest that an optimal monetary policy calls for nominal interest rates that can exceed 6% per year. RP BRAUN, RA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480, USA. NR 27 TC 12 Z9 12 U1 2 U2 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD OCT PY 1994 VL 34 IS 2 BP 201 EP 214 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(94)90049-3 PG 14 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA PQ190 UT WOS:A1994PQ19000003 ER PT J AU SAMOLYK, KA AF SAMOLYK, KA TI BANKING CONDITIONS AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC-PERFORMANCE EVIDENCE OF A REGIONAL CREDIT CHANNEL SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE FINANCIAL MARKETS; BANKING; BUSINESS FLUCTUATIONS; CREDIT CHANNEL ID LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS AB This paper examines the empirical relationship between banking conditions and economic performance at the state level. We develop a regional credit view to explain how, due to information costs, regional banking conditions can affect local economic activity by impacting on a region's ability to fund local investments. Localized information costs suggest that banking-sector problems may constrain economic activity in financially distressed regions, whereas no such link need be evident in financially sound regions. We test for the empirical relevance of this asymmetry for the 1983-1990 period using state-level data and find evidence that local banking-sector conditions explain more of real personal income growth in states where bank loan quality has been poor than in those where banking conditions are relatively healthy. RP SAMOLYK, KA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,RES DEPT,CLEVELAND,OH 44101, USA. NR 15 TC 20 Z9 22 U1 2 U2 8 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD OCT PY 1994 VL 34 IS 2 BP 259 EP 278 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(94)90052-3 PG 20 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA PQ190 UT WOS:A1994PQ19000006 ER PT J AU BRYAN, MF GAVIN, WT AF BRYAN, MF GAVIN, WT TI A DIFFERENT KIND OF MONEY ILLUSION - THE CASE OF LONG AND VARIABLE LAGS SO JOURNAL OF POLICY MODELING LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 1991 Meeting of the Western-Economic-Association CY 1991 CL SEATTLE, WA SP W ECON ASSOC ID NEUTRALITY; INFLATION C1 FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44114. NR 13 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0161-8938 J9 J POLICY MODEL JI J. Policy Model. PD OCT PY 1994 VL 16 IS 5 BP 529 EP 540 DI 10.1016/0161-8938(94)90026-4 PG 12 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PJ485 UT WOS:A1994PJ48500004 ER PT J AU STEINBERG, E AF STEINBERG, E TI TRUTH VERSUS PRECISION IN ECONOMICS - MAYER,T SO MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW LA English DT Book Review RP STEINBERG, E (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU US GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE PI WASHINGTON PA SUPT OF DOCUMENTS, WASHINGTON, DC 20402-9325 SN 0098-1818 J9 MON LABOR REV JI Mon. Labor Rev. PD OCT PY 1994 VL 117 IS 10 BP 65 EP 65 PG 1 WC Industrial Relations & Labor SC Business & Economics GA PR474 UT WOS:A1994PR47400015 ER PT J AU YUCEL, MK AF YUCEL, MK TI REDUCING UNITED-STATES VULNERABILITY TO OIL-SUPPLY SHOCKS SO SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL LA English DT Article RP YUCEL, MK (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,DALLAS,TX 75222, USA. NR 27 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 2 PU UNIV NORTH CAROLINA PI CHAPEL HILL PA SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, CHAPEL HILL, NC 27514 SN 0038-4038 J9 SOUTHERN ECON J JI South. Econ. J. PD OCT PY 1994 VL 61 IS 2 BP 302 EP 310 DI 10.2307/1059978 PG 9 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PK692 UT WOS:A1994PK69200003 ER PT J AU GREENSPAN, A AF GREENSPAN, A TI WE MUST RESOLVE OUR UNDERLYING DEFICIT PROBLEM SO ACADEMIC MEDICINE LA English DT Editorial Material RP GREENSPAN, A (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU HANLEY & BELFUS INC PI PHILADELPHIA PA 210 S 13TH ST, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19107 SN 1040-2446 J9 ACAD MED JI Acad. Med. PD SEP PY 1994 VL 69 IS 9 BP 730 EP 731 DI 10.1097/00001888-199409000-00009 PG 2 WC Education, Scientific Disciplines; Health Care Sciences & Services SC Education & Educational Research; Health Care Sciences & Services GA PG105 UT WOS:A1994PG10500011 PM 8074764 ER PT J AU KODRES, LE OBRIEN, DP AF KODRES, LE OBRIEN, DP TI THE EXISTENCE OF PARETO-SUPERIOR PRICE LIMITS SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB This paper examines the welfare effects of futures price limits under a simple form of market incompleteness. When prices become volatile, shocks to liquidity and fundamentals may occur between the time investors decide to trade and the time their orders are executed This gives rise to implementation risk that cannot be transferred with contingent claims. We show that price limits partially insure implementation risk. When price fluctuations are driven by news about fundamentals, judiciously chosen price limits can be (ex ante) Pareto superior to unconstrained trade. When liquidity shocks are large, price limits benefit hedgers but harm some speculators. C1 US DEPT JUSTICE,DIV ANTITRUST,WASHINGTON,DC 20001. UNIV MICHIGAN,SCH BUSINESS ADM,ANN ARBOR,MI 48109. RP KODRES, LE (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,20TH & C ST NW,MAIL STOP 91,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 9 TC 22 Z9 24 U1 0 U2 5 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD SEP PY 1994 VL 84 IS 4 BP 919 EP 932 PG 14 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PJ232 UT WOS:A1994PJ23200010 ER PT J AU SHARPE, SA AF SHARPE, SA TI FINANCIAL MARKET IMPERFECTIONS, FIRM LEVERAGE, AND THE CYCLICALITY OF EMPLOYMENT SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID CAPITAL STRUCTURE RP SHARPE, SA (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV RES & STAT,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 19 TC 67 Z9 67 U1 2 U2 9 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD SEP PY 1994 VL 84 IS 4 BP 1060 EP 1074 PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PJ232 UT WOS:A1994PJ23200016 ER PT J AU BARTELSMAN, EJ CABALLERO, RJ LYONS, RK AF BARTELSMAN, EJ CABALLERO, RJ LYONS, RK TI CUSTOMER-DRIVEN AND SUPPLIER-DRIVEN EXTERNALITIES SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID INDUSTRY C1 UNIV CALIF BERKELEY,SCH BUSINESS,BERKELEY,CA 94720. MIT,DEPT ECON,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02139. FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NBER,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. OI Bartelsman, Eric/0000-0001-7099-8513 NR 16 TC 74 Z9 75 U1 1 U2 8 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD SEP PY 1994 VL 84 IS 4 BP 1075 EP 1084 PG 10 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PJ232 UT WOS:A1994PJ23200017 ER PT J AU SWAMY, PAVB TAVLAS, GS AF SWAMY, PAVB TAVLAS, GS TI CONNECTIONS BETWEEN GARCH AND STOCHASTIC COEFFICIENTS (SC) MODELS SO ECONOMICS LETTERS LA English DT Article AB GARCH and SC models are suggested as less restrictive alternatives to the conventional models in the econometric literature. Connections between them are made explicit in this paper. C1 INT MONETARY FUND,ROOM 7-210,700 19TH ST,WASHINGTON,DC 20431. FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC. NR 6 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0165-1765 J9 ECON LETT JI Econ. Lett. PD SEP PY 1994 VL 46 IS 1 BP 7 EP 10 DI 10.1016/0165-1765(94)90070-1 PG 4 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PG955 UT WOS:A1994PG95500002 ER PT J AU WILCOX, D AF WILCOX, D TI UNDERSTANDING CONSUMPTION - DEATON,A SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE LA English DT Book Review RP WILCOX, D (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0022-0515 J9 J ECON LIT JI J. Econ. Lit. PD SEP PY 1994 VL 32 IS 3 BP 1234 EP 1235 PG 2 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PK983 UT WOS:A1994PK98300012 ER PT J AU MARQUEZ, J AF MARQUEZ, J TI ECONOMIC-ACTIVITY, TRADE, AND INDUSTRY IN THE UNITED-STATES-JAPAN WORLD-ECONOMY - A MACRO MODEL STUDY OF ECONOMIC INTERACTIONS - ADAMS,G, GANGES,B, SHISHIDO,S SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE LA English DT Book Review RP MARQUEZ, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0022-0515 J9 J ECON LIT JI J. Econ. Lit. PD SEP PY 1994 VL 32 IS 3 BP 1242 EP 1243 PG 2 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PK983 UT WOS:A1994PK98300017 ER PT J AU ARROW, KJ KEHOE, TJ AF ARROW, KJ KEHOE, TJ TI DISTINGUISHED FELLOW - SCARF,HERBERT CONTRIBUTIONS TO ECONOMICS SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Article ID EQUILIBRIA; DEMAND; NUMBER; CORE C1 UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. RP ARROW, KJ (reprint author), STANFORD UNIV,STANFORD,CA 94305, USA. NR 27 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 4 U2 7 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0895-3309 J9 J ECON PERSPECT JI J. Econ. Perspect. PD FAL PY 1994 VL 8 IS 4 BP 161 EP 181 PG 21 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PT663 UT WOS:A1994PT66300009 ER PT J AU MILLER, PJ AF MILLER, PJ TI LOST PROPHETS - AN INSIDERS HISTORY OF THE MODERN ECONOMISTS - MALABRE,AL SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Book Review RP MILLER, PJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK,MINNEAPOLIS,MN, USA. NR 3 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 3 PU AMER FINANCE ASSN PI NEW YORK PA 44 WEST FOURTH ST, STE 9-190, NEW YORK, NY 10012 SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD SEP PY 1994 VL 49 IS 4 BP 1530 EP 1534 DI 10.2307/2329200 PG 5 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA PG760 UT WOS:A1994PG76000019 ER PT J AU ACKERT, LF HUNTER, WC AF ACKERT, LF HUNTER, WC TI RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS AND THE DYNAMIC ADJUSTMENT OF SECURITY ANALYSTS FORECASTS TO NEW INFORMATION SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL RESEARCH LA English DT Article ID EARNINGS; TIME AB We report the results of unbiasedness tests of security analysts' earnings forecasts. By examining how analysis incorporate new information into their updated earnings forecasts we can analyze directly the effect of new information on analysts' forecast revisions and evaluate whether these revised forecasts converge to rational expectations forecasts. The forecasts made by security analysts participating in the Institutional Brokers Estimate System (IBES) database are analyzed. Using standard statistical tests, we reject the simple form of the rational expectations hypothesis. However, by extending the standard tests used in previous studies, we obtain results that suggest that analysts' earnings forecasts conform to a dynamic form of rationality. The tendency of revised forecasts to converge stochastically toward the rational expectations forecast cautions against the rejection of more complicated forms of rationality. C1 FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,ATLANTA,GA 30303. RP ACKERT, LF (reprint author), WILFRID LAURIER UNIV,WATERLOO N2L 3C5,ONTARIO,CANADA. NR 19 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 1 U2 4 PU JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL RESEARCH PI BLACKSBURG PA VIRGINIA TECH UNIV, DEPT FINANCE, 1016 PAMPLIN HALL, BLACKSBURG, VA 24061-0221 SN 0270-2592 J9 J FINANC RES PD FAL PY 1994 VL 17 IS 3 BP 387 EP 401 PG 15 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA PN608 UT WOS:A1994PN60800007 ER PT J AU HASLAG, JH NIESWIADOMY, M SLOTTJE, DJ AF HASLAG, JH NIESWIADOMY, M SLOTTJE, DJ TI ARE NET DISCOUNT RATES STATIONARY - SOME FURTHER EVIDENCE SO JOURNAL OF RISK AND INSURANCE LA English DT Note ID UNIT ROOTS; TRENDS; TESTS AB Gamber and Sorensen provide evidence suggesting that the net discount ratio experienced a level shift in the mean between 1977 and 1981. If such a shift occurred, the nonlinearity in the data shows up as a failure to reject the null hypothesis that a unit root is present; that is, the series is I(1). In this reply, evidence is presented--the Phillips-Perron test and a univariate version of the Stock-Watson q-test-suggesting that the net discount ratio is stationary. Hence, the mean is constant. In addition, if one extends the analysis to include the 1989 through 1993 period, the net discount ratio appears to be reverting. C1 SO METHODIST UNIV,DEPT ECON,DALLAS,TX 75275. RP HASLAG, JH (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,RES DEPT,DALLAS,TX, USA. NR 9 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER RISK INSURANCE ASSOC, INC PI MT VERNON PA C/O CHASE COMMUNICATIONS, STEVE ACUNTO, BOX 9001, MT VERNON, NY 10552 SN 0022-4367 J9 J RISK INSUR JI J. Risk Insur. PD SEP PY 1994 VL 61 IS 3 BP 513 EP 518 DI 10.2307/253574 PG 6 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA PQ446 UT WOS:A1994PQ44600008 ER PT J AU SHEINER, L AF SHEINER, L TI MARGINAL TAX RATES AND HEALTH-CARE REFORM SO NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL LA English DT Article RP SHEINER, L (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC, USA. NR 11 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 3 PU NATL TAX ASSN PI COLUMBUS PA 5310 EAST MAIN ST, COLUMBUS, OH 43213 SN 0028-0283 J9 NATL TAX J JI Natl. Tax J. PD SEP PY 1994 VL 47 IS 3 BP 497 EP 517 PG 21 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA PH702 UT WOS:A1994PH70200004 ER PT J AU FUHRER, JC AF FUHRER, JC TI GOALS, GUIDELINES, AND CONSTRAINTS FACING MONETARY POLICY-MAKERS - AN OVERVIEW SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Central bankers in the United States and abroad must grapple with a broad array of questions about how best to conduct monetary policy. How much should the goal of price stability be emphasized relative to the goal of employment stability? Does central bank independence aid in achieving either or both of these goals? Does a stable, short-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment exist, and can it be exploited by a central bank? What instrument should the central bank manipulate in order to achieve its short-run and long-run goals? In June of 1994, the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston sponsored a conference to address these questions. The five papers presented fell into three broad areas: first, the efficiency of U.S. monetary policy; second, the usefulness of monetary aggregates for the conduct of monetary policy; and third, an examination of international evidence to shed light on questions of central bank independence and accountability. This article offers an overview of the five papers presented and the comments of the discussants. RP FUHRER, JC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA, USA. RI Fuhrer, Jeff/F-8852-2013 NR 9 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD SEP-OCT PY 1994 BP 3 EP 15 PG 13 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PP581 UT WOS:A1994PP58100001 ER PT J AU FIELEKE, NS AF FIELEKE, NS TI THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 50 YEARS AFTER BRETTON-WOODS SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID PROGRAMS AB In July 1944 at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, delegates from 44 nations agreed upon an international monetary system to be established following World War II. At the heart of the system was the International Monetary Fund, which was to foster economic prosperity by promoting international monetary cooperation, orderly exchange-rate arrangements, restriction-free multilateral payments, and efficient balance-of-payments adjustment. This article surveys the functioning of the IMF, focusing on recent experience. The article discusses the means and methods the IMF has employed to achieve its goals and the degree of success it has attained. One conclusion is that the IMF's goals should be expanded to include the abolition of restrictions on payments for international capital, as well as current transactions. In addition, the organization should issue fairly detailed evaluations of its lending activities-which seem to have had very limited success-and of its technical assistance programs. RP FIELEKE, NS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA, USA. NR 22 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD SEP-OCT PY 1994 BP 17 EP 30 PG 14 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PP581 UT WOS:A1994PP58100002 ER PT J AU TOOTELL, GMB AF TOOTELL, GMB TI RESTRUCTURING, THE NAIRU, AND THE PHILLIPS-CURVE SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Recent news stories about corporate downsizing have increased concerns that the labor market is being permanently restructured. The press implicitly, and some economists explicitly, have concluded that this ''restructuring'' in the labor market has increased the rate of unemployment that is consistent with stable inflation. This rate is known as the NAIRU, the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment, the unemployment rate below which inflation tends to rise, and above which inflation tends to fall. This article examines both macroeconomic data and more disaggregated data in search of evidence that the NAIRU has increased. The author finds that neither type of data supports a conclusion that NAIRU has risen in the past few years. He concludes with a brief assessment of the difficulties of estimating the NAIRU. RP TOOTELL, GMB (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA, USA. NR 8 TC 17 Z9 17 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD SEP-OCT PY 1994 BP 31 EP 44 PG 14 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PP581 UT WOS:A1994PP58100003 ER PT J AU BRADBURY, KL AF BRADBURY, KL TI NEW-ENGLAND JOB CHANGES DURING THE RECESSION - THE ROLE OF SELF-EMPLOYMENT SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB During the recent recession in New England, the number of unincorporated self-employed individuals grew while all the other major clases of workers shrank. A shift into self-employment represents one part of a set of changes in the mix of workers and jobs that reflects the nature of the region's downturn and the economic adjustments it entailed. This article examines patterns of job and income change for different classes of workers in New England from the pre-recession peak year of 1988 to the recession-low year of 1992, with an emphasis on the role of the self-employed. Income data suggest that the self-employed fared better than the unemployed during the recession, but their earnings declined more, on average, than the earnings of individuals still working for other employers in 1992. Thus, self-employment apparently represented a successful stopgap measure, for some, to keep earning after the loss of a wage and salary job, but typically at a lower level. A key question is the degree to which these adjustments will be reversed as the New England economy recovers. RP BRADBURY, KL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA, USA. NR 9 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD SEP-OCT PY 1994 BP 45 EP 57 PG 13 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PP581 UT WOS:A1994PP58100004 ER PT J AU BERGER, AN AF BERGER, AN TI ISSUES IN MEASURING THE EFFICIENCIES OF AGRICULTURAL BANKS - DISCUSSION SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Discussion ID INDUSTRY; SCALE AB The papers by Ellinger; Featherstone and Moss (F-M); and Neff and Dixon (N-D) provide an excellent primer on the topic of ''Commercial Bank Efficiency in Financing Agriculture.'' The estimation with curvature constraints, the Fuss functional form, and the comparison of cost and profit function efficiencies are also quite impressive and interesting technical efforts. The goal of this short note is to offer some constructive criticism. While it is too late to incorporate these suggestions into the current papers, the authors and perhaps others may find these remarks useful in future research. In my opinion, more can and should be done to answer the important questions raised in this literature. C1 UNIV PENN,WHARTON FINANCIAL INST CTR,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. RP BERGER, AN (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 12 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 1 U2 4 PU AMER AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS ASSOC PI AMES PA 1110 BUCKEYE AVE, AMES, IA 50010-8063 SN 0002-9092 J9 AM J AGR ECON JI Am. J. Agr. Econ. PD AUG PY 1994 VL 76 IS 3 BP 672 EP 674 DI 10.2307/1243688 PG 3 WC Agricultural Economics & Policy; Economics SC Agriculture; Business & Economics GA PB301 UT WOS:A1994PB30100041 ER PT J AU GEWEKE, J AF GEWEKE, J TI PRIORS FOR MACROECONOMIC TIME-SERIES AND THEIR APPLICATION SO ECONOMETRIC THEORY LA English DT Article ID UNIT ROOTS; BAYESIAN-ANALYSIS; RANDOM-WALKS; REGRESSION; MODELS; INFERENCE; TRENDS; DISTRIBUTIONS; CRITICIZE; ROUTES AB This paper takes up Bayesian inference in a general trend stationary model for macroeconomic time series with independent Student-t disturbances. The model is linear in the data, but nonlinear in parameters. An informative but non-conjugate family of prior distributions for the parameters is introduced, indexed by a single parameter that can be readily elicited. The main technical contribution is the construction of posterior moments, densities, and odd ratios by using a six-step Gibbs sampler. Mappings from the index parameter of the family of prior distribution to posterior moments, densities, and odds ratios are developed for several of the Nelson-Plosser time series. These mappings show that the posterior distribution is not even approximately Gaussian, and they indicate the sensitivity of the posterior odds ratio in favor of difference stationarity to the choice of the prior distribution. C1 UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. RP GEWEKE, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,250 MARQUETTE AVE,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480, USA. NR 39 TC 23 Z9 23 U1 2 U2 7 PU CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS PI NEW YORK PA 40 WEST 20TH STREET, NEW YORK, NY 10011-4211 SN 0266-4666 J9 ECONOMET THEOR JI Economet. Theory PD AUG-OCT PY 1994 VL 10 IS 3-4 BP 609 EP 632 PG 24 WC Economics; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA PJ771 UT WOS:A1994PJ77100008 ER PT J AU BOARD, R AF BOARD, R TI POLYNOMIALLY BOUNDED RATIONALITY SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article ID FINITE AUTOMATA; EXPECTATIONS; LEARNABILITY; EQUILIBRIUM AB This paper explores the conditions under which agents can learn enough about an economy to form rational expectations. The agents' rationality is bounded by limiting their computational resources to algorithms with running time bounded by a polynomial in the relevant problem parameters. We characterize the classes of price functions and economies that agents can learn under these assumptions and present a result that suggests that it is unlikely that agents can learn even those price functions and economies computable by finite state automata. This result casts doubt on the ability of agents to form rational expectations in complex economies. (C) 1994 Academic Press, inc. RP BOARD, R (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 33 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 2 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0022-0531 J9 J ECON THEORY JI J. Econ. Theory PD AUG PY 1994 VL 63 IS 2 BP 246 EP 270 DI 10.1006/jeth.1994.1042 PG 25 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PD147 UT WOS:A1994PD14700006 ER PT J AU OSMITH, BD AF OSMITH, BD TI MISCHIEF AND MONETARY HISTORY FRIEDMAN AND SCHWARTZ 30 YEARS LATER SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE QUANTITY THEORY; REAL BILLS DOCTRINE ID OPEN-MARKET OPERATIONS; REAL-BILLS DOCTRINE; QUANTITY THEORY; CURRENCY; PRICES; MONEY C1 CORNELL UNIV,DEPT ECON,ITHACA,NY 14853. RP OSMITH, BD (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480, USA. NR 40 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 1 U2 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD AUG PY 1994 VL 34 IS 1 BP 27 EP 45 PG 19 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA PH594 UT WOS:A1994PH59400003 ER PT J AU TALLMAN, EW WANG, P AF TALLMAN, EW WANG, P TI HUMAN-CAPITAL AND ENDOGENOUS GROWTH EVIDENCE FROM TAIWAN SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE HUMAN CAPITAL; ENDOGENOUS GROWTH; ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ID ECONOMIC-GROWTH; MODEL AB We examine the empirical implications of models that display perpetual growth through human capital accumulation in a case study of Taiwan. Our results show that incorporating a labor quality index into the labor input improves the performance of the growth model in Taiwan over the 1965-89 period. The results are robust to alternative enhancements to raw labor input measures and to the inclusion of additional relevant variables often correlated with economic growth in developing countries. The evidence supports the theoretical suggestion that labor skill is a useful augmentation of the raw labor measure commonly used in empirical growth studies. C1 PENN STATE UNIV,UNIVERSITY PK,PA 16802. RP TALLMAN, EW (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,RES DEPT,ATLANTA,GA 30303, USA. NR 45 TC 43 Z9 44 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD AUG PY 1994 VL 34 IS 1 BP 101 EP 124 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(94)01152-4 PG 24 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA PH594 UT WOS:A1994PH59400007 ER PT J AU HAUBRICH, JG THOMSON, JB AF HAUBRICH, JG THOMSON, JB TI A CONFERENCE SPONSORED BY THE FEDERAL-RESERVE-BANK-OF-CLEVELAND OCTOBER 17-19, 1993 - INTRODUCTION SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material RP HAUBRICH, JG (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1994 VL 26 IS 3 BP 517 EP 522 DI 10.2307/2077987 PN 2 PG 6 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA PC592 UT WOS:A1994PC59200002 ER PT J AU TODD, WF AF TODD, WF TI AN END TO PRIVATE BANKING - EARLY NEW-DEAL PROPOSALS TO ALTER THE ROLE OF THE FEDERAL-GOVERNMENT IN CREDIT ALLOCATION - COMMENT SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article RP TODD, WF (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 1 U2 2 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1994 VL 26 IS 3 BP 569 EP 571 DI 10.2307/2077991 PN 2 PG 3 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA PC592 UT WOS:A1994PC59200006 ER PT J AU GOODFRIEND, M AF GOODFRIEND, M TI WHY WE NEED AN ACCORD FOR FEDERAL-RESERVE CREDIT POLICY SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article RP GOODFRIEND, M (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND,RICHMOND,VA 23261, USA. NR 17 TC 11 Z9 11 U1 0 U2 1 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1994 VL 26 IS 3 BP 572 EP 580 DI 10.2307/2077992 PN 2 PG 9 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA PC592 UT WOS:A1994PC59200007 ER PT J AU STEVENS, EJ AF STEVENS, EJ TI WHY WE NEED AN ACCORD FOR FEDERAL-RESERVE CREDIT POLICY - COMMENT SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Note RP STEVENS, EJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH, USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1994 VL 26 IS 3 BP 581 EP 584 DI 10.2307/2077993 PN 2 PG 4 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA PC592 UT WOS:A1994PC59200008 ER PT J AU BERGER, AN UDELL, GF AF BERGER, AN UDELL, GF TI DID RISK-BASED CAPITAL ALLOCATE BANK CREDIT AND CAUSE A CREDIT CRUNCH IN THE UNITED-STATES SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID MONETARY TRANSMISSION; MARKETS C1 UNIV PENN,WHARTON FINANCIAL INST CTR,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. NYU,NEW YORK,NY 10003. RP BERGER, AN (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 45 TC 130 Z9 132 U1 1 U2 11 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1994 VL 26 IS 3 BP 585 EP 628 DI 10.2307/2077994 PN 2 PG 44 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA PC592 UT WOS:A1994PC59200009 ER PT J AU CALOMIRIS, CW KAHN, CM LONGHOFER, SD AF CALOMIRIS, CW KAHN, CM LONGHOFER, SD TI HOUSING-FINANCE INTERVENTION AND PRIVATE INCENTIVES - HELPING MINORITIES AND THE POOR SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID CREDIT; PROGRAMS C1 NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH. RP CALOMIRIS, CW (reprint author), UNIV ILLINOIS,URBANA,IL 61801, USA. NR 36 TC 42 Z9 42 U1 1 U2 4 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1994 VL 26 IS 3 BP 634 EP 674 DI 10.2307/2077996 PN 2 PG 41 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA PC592 UT WOS:A1994PC59200011 ER PT J AU RITTER, JA AF RITTER, JA TI PUBLIC POLICIES AND PRIVATE PENSION CONTRIBUTIONS - COMMENT SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Note RP RITTER, JA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK,ST LOUIS,MO, USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1994 VL 26 IS 3 BP 733 EP 734 DI 10.2307/2078001 PN 2 PG 2 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA PC592 UT WOS:A1994PC59200016 ER PT J AU JORDAN, JL AF JORDAN, JL TI A CONFERENCE SPONSORED BY THE FEDERAL-RESERVE-BANK-OF-CLEVELAND OCTOBER 17-19, 1993 - PREFACE SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material RP JORDAN, JL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH, USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1994 VL 26 IS 3 BP R3 EP R4 PN 2 PG 2 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA PC592 UT WOS:A1994PC59200001 ER PT J AU HELKIE, WL HOWARD, DH AF HELKIE, WL HOWARD, DH TI EXTERNAL ADJUSTMENT IN SELECTED DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES IN THE 1990S SO JOURNAL OF POLICY MODELING LA English DT Article AB An analytic and accounting framework is presented for examining the evolution of the external positions of eight developing countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Korea, Mexico, Peru, the Philippines, and Venezuela. The framework is used to analyze the historical paths of external debts in these countries. Then, under fairly conventional baseline specifications, and assuming that no other relevant factors change significantly, projections for the debt-export ratios in these eight developing countries are generated, using the analytic framework and a simple simulation model. The baseline projections indicate cases in which external adjustment might be warranted. Through the simulation of some alternative scenarios, the analysis then suggests ways and means of effecting the necessary adjustments, including a rough idea of what magnitudes might be involved. RP HELKIE, WL (reprint author), BOARD GOVERNORS FED RESERVE SYST,DIV INT FINANCE,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 13 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 1 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0161-8938 J9 J POLICY MODEL JI J. Policy Model. PD AUG PY 1994 VL 16 IS 4 BP 353 EP 393 DI 10.1016/0161-8938(94)90034-5 PG 41 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PA972 UT WOS:A1994PA97200001 ER PT J AU CHARI, VV CHRISTIANO, LJ AF CHARI, VV CHRISTIANO, LJ TI OPTIMAL FISCAL-POLICY IN A BUSINESS-CYCLE MODEL SO JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Article ID OPTIMAL TAXATION; GROWTH; FLUCTUATIONS; SAVINGS; ECONOMY; INCOME; TAX AB This paper develops the quantitative implications of optimal fiscal policy in a business cycle model. In a stationary equilibrium, the ex ante tax rate on capital income is approximately zero. There is an equivalence class of ex post capital income tax rates and bond policies that support a given allocation. Within this class, the optimal ex post capital tax rates can range from close to independently and identically distributed to close to a random walk. The tax rate on labor income fluctuates very little and inherits the persistence properties of the exogenous shocks; thus there is no presumption that optimal labor tax rates follow a random walk. Most of the welfare gains realized by switching from a tax system like that of the United States to the Ramsey system come from an initial period of high taxation on capital income. C1 FED RESERVE BANK,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL. UNIV PENN,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. RP CHARI, VV (reprint author), NORTHWESTERN UNIV,EVANSTON,IL 60201, USA. NR 31 TC 131 Z9 136 U1 0 U2 7 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0022-3808 J9 J POLIT ECON JI J. Polit. Econ. PD AUG PY 1994 VL 102 IS 4 BP 617 EP 652 DI 10.1086/261949 PG 36 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PG759 UT WOS:A1994PG75900001 ER PT J AU AIYAGARI, SR AF AIYAGARI, SR TI UNINSURED IDIOSYNCRATIC RISK AND AGGREGATE SAVING SO QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS; INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSFERS; PRECAUTIONARY SAVINGS; OPTIMAL CONSUMPTION; INCOME; ACCUMULATION; UNCERTAINTY; EQUILIBRIUM; PERMANENT AB We present a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the standard growth model modified to include precautionary saving motives and liquidity constraints. We address the impact on the aggregate saving rate, the importance of asset trading to individuals, and the relative inequality of wealth and income distributions. RP AIYAGARI, SR (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN, USA. NR 50 TC 367 Z9 368 U1 3 U2 16 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0033-5533 J9 Q J ECON JI Q. J. Econ. PD AUG PY 1994 VL 109 IS 3 BP 659 EP 684 DI 10.2307/2118417 PG 26 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PD590 UT WOS:A1994PD59000005 ER PT J AU CARROLL, CD RHEE, BK RHEE, CY AF CARROLL, CD RHEE, BK RHEE, CY TI ARE THERE CULTURAL-EFFECTS ON SAVING - SOME CROSS-SECTIONAL EVIDENCE SO QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS LA English DT Article AB Why are there such large differences in saving rates across countries? Conventional economic analyses have not been successful in explaining international saving differences, so economists have sometimes suggested that national saving differences may be explained by cultural differences. This paper tests the hypothesis that cultural factors influence saving by comparing saving patterns of immigrants to Canada from different cultures. Using data from the Canadian Survey of Family Expenditures, we find no evidence of cultural effects on saving. C1 UNIV ROCHESTER,ROCHESTER,NY 14627. SEOUL NATL UNIV,SEOUL 151,SOUTH KOREA. RP CARROLL, CD (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 17 TC 49 Z9 49 U1 4 U2 11 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0033-5533 J9 Q J ECON JI Q. J. Econ. PD AUG PY 1994 VL 109 IS 3 BP 685 EP 699 DI 10.2307/2118418 PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PD590 UT WOS:A1994PD59000006 ER PT J AU AUERBACH, AJ HASSETT, KA OLINER, SD AF AUERBACH, AJ HASSETT, KA OLINER, SD TI REASSESSING THE SOCIAL RETURNS TO EQUIPMENT INVESTMENT SO QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP AUERBACH, AJ (reprint author), UNIV PENN,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104, USA. NR 10 TC 39 Z9 39 U1 0 U2 5 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0033-5533 J9 Q J ECON JI Q. J. Econ. PD AUG PY 1994 VL 109 IS 3 BP 789 EP 802 DI 10.2307/2118422 PG 14 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PD590 UT WOS:A1994PD59000010 ER PT J AU MARQUEZ, J AF MARQUEZ, J TI THE ECONOMETRICS OF ELASTICITIES OR THE ELASTICITY OF ECONOMETRICS - AN EMPIRICAL-ANALYSIS OF THE BEHAVIOR OF UNITED-STATES IMPORTS SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID ROTTERDAM MODEL; FLEXIBILITY; DEMAND AB Fifty years of econometric modeling of U.S. import demand assumes that trade elasticities are autonomous parameters, that both cross-price effects and simultaneity biases are absent, and that expenditures on domestic and foreign goods can be studied independently of each other. To relax these assumptions, the paper assembles a simultaneous model explaining bilateral U.S. import volume and prices. Spending behaves according to the Rotterdam model which, by design, embodies all the properties of utility maximization and does not treat trade elasticities as autonomous parameters. Pricing behaves according to the pricing-to-market hypothesis which recognizes exporters' incentives to discriminate across export markets. Parameter estimation relies on the Full Information Maximum Likelihood (FIML) approach and uses bilateral price data for 1965-1987. According to the evidence, treating trade elasticities as autonomous parameters and ignoring the statistical implications of simultaneity and optimization biases the structural estimates and undermines our effectiveness in addressing questions relevant to economic interactions among nations. RP MARQUEZ, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 24 TC 10 Z9 11 U1 1 U2 4 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD AUG PY 1994 VL 76 IS 3 BP 471 EP 481 DI 10.2307/2109972 PG 11 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA PP479 UT WOS:A1994PP47900007 ER PT J AU PRUSA, TJ SCHMITZ, JA AF PRUSA, TJ SCHMITZ, JA TI CAN COMPANIES MAINTAIN THEIR INITIAL INNOVATIVE THRUST - A STUDY OF THE PC SOFTWARE INDUSTRY SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID FIRM GROWTH; COMPETITION; DIFFUSION; PRODUCTS; ENTRY AB This paper identifies a number of patterns in the sales of products within firms and over time in the PC software industry. For example, we find that a firm's initial product tends to be its most successful. There is also some indication that a firm's initial product sells better than its second, its second better than its third, and so on. We sketch some simple models consistent with these results. C1 NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. RP PRUSA, TJ (reprint author), SUNY STONY BROOK,STONY BROOK,NY 11794, USA. NR 34 TC 14 Z9 14 U1 0 U2 1 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD AUG PY 1994 VL 76 IS 3 BP 523 EP 540 DI 10.2307/2109977 PG 18 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA PP479 UT WOS:A1994PP47900012 ER PT J AU RAMASASTRY, A AF RAMASASTRY, A TI THE PARAMETERS, PROGRESSIONS, AND PARADOXES OF BRAMWELL SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF LEGAL HISTORY LA English DT Article RP RAMASASTRY, A (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 55 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU TEMPLE UNIV SCHOOL LAW PI PHILADELPHIA PA 1719 NORTH BROAD STREET, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19122 SN 0002-9319 J9 AM J LEGAL HIST JI Am. J. Legal Hist. PD JUL PY 1994 VL 38 IS 3 BP 322 EP 373 DI 10.2307/845390 PG 52 WC Law SC Government & Law GA QD008 UT WOS:A1994QD00800004 ER PT J AU BENSON, BL FAMINOW, MD MARQUIS, MH SAUER, DG AF BENSON, BL FAMINOW, MD MARQUIS, MH SAUER, DG TI THE IMPACT OF PROVINCIAL MARKETING BOARDS ON PRICE RELATIONS AND PRICING DYNAMICS IN THE NORTH-AMERICAN SLAUGHTER HOG MARKET SO APPLIED ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID GEOGRAPHIC MARKETS; COINTEGRATION; TRENDS AB Canadian provincial hog marketing boards act as sales agents for hog producers. The hypothesis that the introduction of marketing boards in Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan between 1969 and 1972 created seller side market power is tested and supported: their hog prices rose to levels comparable to Ontario where a marketing board had been in place. Organized sellers can also influence pricing dynamics because of the linked spatial oligopsonistic nature of the hog packing industry. Cointegration tests and variance decompositions indicate that establishing boards in the surplus producing western provinces made them relatively less isolated from pricing innovations in deficit producing eastern Canada. C1 UNIV MANITOBA,DEPT AGR ECON & FARM MANAGEMENT,WINNIPEG R3T 2N2,MANITOBA,CANADA. BOARD GOVERNORS FED RESERVE SYST,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. BOISE STATE UNIV,DEPT ECON,BOISE,ID 83706. RP BENSON, BL (reprint author), FLORIDA STATE UNIV,DEPT ECON,TALLAHASSEE,FL 32306, USA. NR 22 TC 8 Z9 8 U1 0 U2 4 PU ROUTLEDGE PI LONDON PA 11 NEW FETTER LANE, LONDON, ENGLAND EC4P 4EE SN 0003-6846 J9 APPL ECON JI Appl. Econ. PD JUL PY 1994 VL 26 IS 7 BP 677 EP 688 DI 10.1080/00036849400000039 PG 12 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PB724 UT WOS:A1994PB72400003 ER PT J AU YUCEL, MK GUO, SY AF YUCEL, MK GUO, SY TI FUEL TAXES AND COINTEGRATION OF ENERGY PRICES SO CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Western-Economic-Association-International 68th Annual Conference CY JUN 20-24, 1993 CL LAKE TAHOE, NV SP W Econ Assoc Int AB Creating a successful energy tax policy requires understanding the markets that the energy policy targets. This paper analyzes coal, natural gas, and oil markets to determine the extent to which these fuel prices move together. Results indicate that a stable long-run relationship between coal and oil prices existed until 1974 and that this relationship changed after 1974. The long-run relationship between coal, natural gas, and oil prices implies that a single-fuel tax in these markets would not be effective as a single tax policy. Similarly, an equal percentage tax on these energy sources, which does not change relative prices initially, would not keep relative prices unchanged in the long run. Energy policy must take account of the long-run relationship between different energy prices. Otherwise, the long-run results of energy policy could be quite different than intended. C1 SPRINT CORP,DALLAS,TX. RP YUCEL, MK (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,DALLAS,TX, USA. NR 8 TC 10 Z9 11 U1 1 U2 2 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 SN 0735-0007 J9 CONTEMP ECON POLICY JI Contemp. Econ. Policy PD JUL PY 1994 VL 12 IS 3 BP 33 EP 41 PG 9 WC Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA NZ613 UT WOS:A1994NZ61300004 ER PT J AU BROWN, SPA HUNTINGTON, HG AF BROWN, SPA HUNTINGTON, HG TI THE ECONOMIC COST OF UNITED-STATES OIL CONSERVATION SO CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Western-Economic-Association-International 68th Annual Conference CY JUN 20-24, 1993 CL LAKE TAHOE, NV SP W Econ Assoc Int AB This article examines the costs of U.S. oil conservation by using parameters of five world oil models from a recent Energy Modeling Forum study. Variation in the estimated cost of oil conservation across the models suggests that achieving oil conservation through flexible policies that adjust to market conditions would better serve economic efficiency than would setting government-mandated levels of oil consumption. Additionally, net world oil conservation is likely to be somewhat less than gross U.S. conservation. U.S. oil conservation lowers the world oil price and stimulates non-U.S. oil consumption. Including the gains in non-U.S. oil consumption raises the estimated costs of achieving a given conservation level. C1 STANFORD UNIV,ENERGY MODELING FORUM,STANFORD,CA 94305. RP BROWN, SPA (reprint author), FED RES BANK,RES DEPT,DALLAS,TX, USA. NR 20 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 SN 0735-0007 J9 CONTEMP ECON POLICY JI Contemp. Econ. Policy PD JUL PY 1994 VL 12 IS 3 BP 42 EP 53 PG 12 WC Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA NZ613 UT WOS:A1994NZ61300005 ER PT J AU HUMPHREY, TM AF HUMPHREY, TM TI JOPLIN,THOMAS AND CLASSICAL MACROECONOMICS - A REAPPRAISAL OF CLASSICAL MONETARY THOUGHT - OBRIEN,DP SO ECONOMIC JOURNAL LA English DT Book Review RP HUMPHREY, TM (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND,RICHMOND,VA 23261, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX4 1JF SN 0013-0133 J9 ECON J JI Econ. J. PD JUL PY 1994 VL 104 IS 425 BP 979 EP 981 DI 10.2307/2235007 PG 3 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NZ280 UT WOS:A1994NZ28000035 ER PT J AU WHEELOCK, DC KUMBHAKAR, SC AF WHEELOCK, DC KUMBHAKAR, SC TI THE SLACK BANKER DANCES - DEPOSIT INSURANCE AND RISK-TAKING IN THE BANKING COLLAPSE OF THE 1920S SO EXPLORATIONS IN ECONOMIC HISTORY LA English DT Article AB This article examines the effects of deposit insurance on bank behavior in Kansas during the 1920s. Kansas banks were severely stressed by a collapse of commodity prices in 1920 and the resulting increase in loan defaults. We find that banks belonging to the state deposit insurance system maintained lower capital/asset ratios, which may explain their comparatively high failure rate. Despite delays, and eventual suspension of insurance payments, we find no evidence of a decline in the credibility of insurance, and hence in the ability of insured banks to take excessive risks, before the system's collapse in 1926. (C) 1994 Academic Press, Inc. C1 UNIV TEXAS,DEPT ECON,AUSTIN,TX 78712. RP WHEELOCK, DC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ST LOUIS,ST LOUIS,MO 63166, USA. RI Wheelock, David/I-5757-2016 OI Wheelock, David/0000-0002-2702-8164 NR 29 TC 10 Z9 10 U1 1 U2 2 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0014-4983 J9 EXPLOR ECON HIST JI Explor. Econ. Hist. PD JUL PY 1994 VL 31 IS 3 BP 357 EP 375 DI 10.1006/exeh.1994.1015 PG 19 WC Economics; History Of Social Sciences SC Business & Economics; Social Sciences - Other Topics GA NX254 UT WOS:A1994NX25400004 ER PT J AU FILARDO, AJ AF FILARDO, AJ TI BUSINESS-CYCLE PHASES AND THEIR TRANSITIONAL DYNAMICS SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS LA English DT Article DE LEADING INDICATORS; MARKOV-SWITCHING MODEL; MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION; MONTHLY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION; TIME-VARYING TRANSITION PROBABILITY ID TIME-SERIES SUBJECT; SWITCHING REGRESSIONS; MODEL; GNP AB This article examines differences in expansionary and contractionary phases of the business cycle. By extending the nonlinear Markov-switching estimation method of Hamilton to incorporate time-varying probabilities of transitions between the phases, the marginal benefits of the time-varying transition probability Markov-switching model are highlighted. Using this technique, I document the high correlation between the evolution of the phases inferred from the model and traditional reference cycles for monthly output data. Many of the economic variables that determine the time-varying probabilities help to predict turning points. The predictive power of standard leading indicators is evaluated and compared. RP FILARDO, AJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK KANSAS CITY,ECON RES DEPT,KANSAS CITY,MO 64198, USA. NR 36 TC 246 Z9 252 U1 1 U2 18 PU AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC PI ALEXANDRIA PA 1429 DUKE ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 SN 0735-0015 J9 J BUS ECON STAT JI J. Bus. Econ. Stat. PD JUL PY 1994 VL 12 IS 3 BP 299 EP 308 DI 10.2307/1392086 PG 10 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Mathematics GA NV785 UT WOS:A1994NV78500005 ER PT J AU KUTTNER, KN AF KUTTNER, KN TI ESTIMATING POTENTIAL OUTPUT AS A LATENT VARIABLE SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS LA English DT Article DE INFLATION; KALMAN FILTER; PHILLIPS CURVE; STOCHASTIC DETRENDING; UNOBSERVED-COMPONENTS MODELS ID TIME-SERIES; UNEMPLOYMENT; TRENDS AB This article proposes a new method for estimating potential output in which potential real gross domestic product (GDP) is modeled as an unobserved stochastic trend, and deviations of GDP from potential affect inflation through an aggregate supply relationship. The output and inflation equations together form a bivariate unobserved-components model which is estimated via maximum likelihood through the use of the Kalman-filter algorithm. The procedure yields a measure of potential output and its standard error and an estimate of the quantitative response of inflation to real growth and the output gap. RP KUTTNER, KN (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,RES DEPT,CHICAGO,IL 60604, USA. NR 28 TC 54 Z9 55 U1 0 U2 4 PU AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC PI ALEXANDRIA PA 1429 DUKE ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 SN 0735-0015 J9 J BUS ECON STAT JI J. Bus. Econ. Stat. PD JUL PY 1994 VL 12 IS 3 BP 361 EP 368 PG 8 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Mathematics GA NV785 UT WOS:A1994NV78500011 ER PT J AU AMMER, J MEI, JP AF AMMER, J MEI, JP TI MEASURING INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC LINKAGES WITH STOCK-MARKET DATA SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 3 PU AMER FINANCE ASSN PI NEW YORK PA 44 WEST FOURTH ST, STE 9-190, NEW YORK, NY 10012 SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD JUL PY 1994 VL 49 IS 3 BP 1044 EP 1045 PG 2 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA PE199 UT WOS:A1994PE19900014 ER PT J AU BERGER, AN UDELL, GF AF BERGER, AN UDELL, GF TI DID RISK-BASED CAPITAL ALLOCATE BANK CREDIT AND CAUSE A CREDIT CRUNCH IN THE UNITED-STATES SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 3 PU AMER FINANCE ASSN PI NEW YORK PA 44 WEST FOURTH ST, STE 9-190, NEW YORK, NY 10012 SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD JUL PY 1994 VL 49 IS 3 BP 1051 EP 1051 PG 1 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA PE199 UT WOS:A1994PE19900023 ER PT J AU COHEN, H HEATH, D AF COHEN, H HEATH, D TI A NEW METHOD OF TESTING PRICING-MODELS AS APPLIED TO FORWARD INTEREST-RATE MODELS SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,ATLANTA,GA 30303. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 3 PU AMER FINANCE ASSN PI NEW YORK PA 44 WEST FOURTH ST, STE 9-190, NEW YORK, NY 10012 SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD JUL PY 1994 VL 49 IS 3 BP 1061 EP 1062 PG 2 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA PE199 UT WOS:A1994PE19900039 ER PT J AU HANCOCK, D WILCOX, JA AF HANCOCK, D WILCOX, JA TI ARE BASLE CAPITAL STANDARDS TO BLAME FOR THE CREDIT CRUNCH SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 3 PU AMER FINANCE ASSN PI NEW YORK PA 44 WEST FOURTH ST, STE 9-190, NEW YORK, NY 10012 SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD JUL PY 1994 VL 49 IS 3 BP 1071 EP 1072 PG 2 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA PE199 UT WOS:A1994PE19900055 ER PT J AU LITTLE, JS JUD, MD AF LITTLE, JS JUD, MD TI THE REGIONAL IMPACT OF HEALTH-CARE-REFORM - WITH A FOCUS ON NEW-ENGLAND SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article RP LITTLE, JS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. NR 24 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JUL-AUG PY 1994 BP 3 EP 32 PG 30 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PC136 UT WOS:A1994PC13600001 ER PT J AU MCNEES, SK FINE, LK AF MCNEES, SK FINE, LK TI DIVERSITY, UNCERTAINTY, AND ACCURACY OF INFLATION-FORECASTS SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID EXPECTATIONS RP MCNEES, SK (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. NR 19 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JUL-AUG PY 1994 BP 33 EP 44 PG 12 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PC136 UT WOS:A1994PC13600002 ER PT J AU TANNENWALD, R AF TANNENWALD, R TI THE GEOGRAPHIC BOUNDARIES OF NEW-ENGLAND MIDDLE-LENDING MARKETS SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article RP TANNENWALD, R (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. NR 11 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JUL-AUG PY 1994 BP 45 EP 63 PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PC136 UT WOS:A1994PC13600003 ER PT J AU CANONI, RE HELLERSTEIN, R AF CANONI, RE HELLERSTEIN, R TI 50 YEARS AFTER BRETTON-WOODS - WHAT IS THE FUTURE FOR THE INTERNATIONAL-MONETARY-SYSTEM - AN OVERVIEW SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article RP CANONI, RE (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JUL-AUG PY 1994 BP 65 EP 73 PG 9 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PC136 UT WOS:A1994PC13600004 ER PT J AU RITTER, JA TAYLOR, LJ AF RITTER, JA TAYLOR, LJ TI WORKERS AS CREDITORS - PERFORMANCE BONDS AND EFFICIENCY WAGES SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Note ID DUAL LABOR-MARKETS; UNEMPLOYMENT; INCENTIVES; DISPERSION; CONTRACTS; PROFILES; MODEL; CYCLE C1 CARNEGIE MELLON UNIV,HEINZ SCH PUBL POLICY & MANAGEMENT,PITTSBURGH,PA 15213. RP RITTER, JA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ST LOUIS,RES DEPT,POB 442,ST LOUIS,MO 63166, USA. NR 18 TC 12 Z9 12 U1 0 U2 2 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD JUN PY 1994 VL 84 IS 3 BP 694 EP 704 PG 11 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NT458 UT WOS:A1994NT45800021 ER PT J AU MCMANUS, DA NANKERVIS, JC SAVIN, NE AF MCMANUS, DA NANKERVIS, JC SAVIN, NE TI MULTIPLE OPTIMA AND ASYMPTOTIC APPROXIMATIONS IN THE PARTIAL ADJUSTMENT MODEL SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS LA English DT Article DE MULTIPLE OPTIMA; PARTIAL ADJUSTMENT; MONTE-CARLO EXPERIMENT; SIZE; POWER; BOOTSTRAP ID CONSUMPTION; BOOTSTRAP; VARIABLES; DEMAND; POWER AB This paper examines statistical problems which arise in empirical applications of the partial adjustment model with autoregressive errors when the model is nearly nonidentified. The results of Monte Carlo experiments show that the NLS estimation criterion function is multipeaked with high probability when the model is nearly nonidentified. In the cases examined the finite-sample distributions of the NLS estimators and the Wald test statistics are poorly approximated by their asymptotic distributions. The asymptotic approximation works better for the likelihood ratio (LR) test statistics, but still can be unsatisfactory. When the Wald and LR tests are based on bootstrap critical values the size distortions are effectively eliminated. C1 UNIV IOWA,DEPT ECON,IOWA CITY,IA 52242. FED RESERVE SYST,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. UNIV SURREY,GUILDFORD GU2 5XH,SURREY,ENGLAND. RI Nankervis, John/D-2255-2012 NR 37 TC 11 Z9 11 U1 1 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0304-4076 J9 J ECONOMETRICS JI J. Econom. PD JUN PY 1994 VL 62 IS 2 BP 91 EP 128 DI 10.1016/0304-4076(94)90018-3 PG 38 WC Economics; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA NN707 UT WOS:A1994NN70700002 ER PT J AU WEINBERG, JA AF WEINBERG, JA TI PRIVATE INFORMATION AND INVENTIVE ACTIVITY SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION LA English DT Article DE PRIVATE INFORMATION; INNOVATION; CONTRACTS ID TECHNOLOGY AB This paper examines incentives for investment in inventive activity in an environment subject to informational constraints. On the one hand the inability of the public to monitor such investments suggests that inventors should bear a high share of the risk associated with their efforts. on the other hand, the very novelty of an invention could make it difficult to sell to a skeptical public. This difficulty could induce an inventor to engage in costly signalling activity. This papers considers this friction, and the nature of contracts which balance the incentive to invent against the incentive to signal. Optimal contracts are interpreted in terms of financial arrangements between entrepreneurs and investors. RP WEINBERG, JA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND,RES DEPT,POB 27622,RICHMOND,VA 23261, USA. NR 18 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-2681 J9 J ECON BEHAV ORGAN JI J. Econ. Behav. Organ. PD JUN PY 1994 VL 24 IS 1 BP 71 EP 90 DI 10.1016/0167-2681(94)90054-X PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NY357 UT WOS:A1994NY35700004 ER PT J AU ODRISCOLL, GP AF ODRISCOLL, GP TI HAYEK AND THE KEYNESIAN AVALANCHE - MCCORMICK,BJ SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE LA English DT Book Review RP ODRISCOLL, GP (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,DALLAS,TX, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0022-0515 J9 J ECON LIT JI J. Econ. Lit. PD JUN PY 1994 VL 32 IS 2 BP 682 EP 683 PG 2 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NY105 UT WOS:A1994NY10500008 ER PT J AU TRUMAN, EM AF TRUMAN, EM TI A RETROSPECTIVE ON THE BRETTON-WOODS SYSTEM - LESSONS FOR INTERNATIONAL MONETARY REFORM - BORDO,MD, EICHENGREEN,B SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE LA English DT Book Review RP TRUMAN, EM (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0022-0515 J9 J ECON LIT JI J. Econ. Lit. PD JUN PY 1994 VL 32 IS 2 BP 721 EP 723 PG 3 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NY105 UT WOS:A1994NY10500035 ER PT J AU BRAUN, RA AF BRAUN, RA TI TAX DISTURBANCES AND REAL ECONOMIC-ACTIVITY IN THE POSTWAR UNITED-STATES SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE FISCAL POLICY; BUSINESS FLUCTUATIONS; TIME-SERIES MODELS ID BUSINESS-CYCLE; AGGREGATE FLUCTUATIONS; LABOR; UNCERTAINTY; TAXATION; POLICY; MODEL; TIME AB This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of cyclical fluctuations in marginal tax rates. It finds that systematically including tax variables in a standard real business cycle model substantially improves the model's ability to reproduce basic facts about postwar U.S. business cycle fluctuations. In particular, modeling fluctuations in personal and corporate income tax rates increases the model's predicted relative variability of hours and decreases its predicted correlation between hours and average productivity. Fluctuations in tax rates produce large substitution effects that alter the leisure/labor supply decision. C1 UNIV VIRGINIA,CHARLOTTESVILLE,VA 22903. RP BRAUN, RA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,POB 291,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480, USA. NR 36 TC 60 Z9 60 U1 0 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD JUN PY 1994 VL 33 IS 3 BP 441 EP 462 PG 22 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA NU374 UT WOS:A1994NU37400001 ER PT J AU DOTSEY, M AF DOTSEY, M TI SOME UNPLEASANT SUPPLY-SIDE ARITHMETIC SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE FISCAL POLICY ID CAPITAL INCOME TAXATION; PERFECT FORESIGHT MODEL; FISCAL-POLICY; UNITED-STATES; EQUILIBRIUM; ECONOMY; TAX; INVESTMENT AB Existing macroeconomic theory predicts that cuts in the distortionary tax rate on capital financed by increases in government debt lead to increases in investment and output. These results are generally obtained under the unrealistic assumption that government debt is financed by nondistorting future fiscal policy. However, when current government deficits are financed by future distortionary taxation this paper shows that lower tax rates and higher deficits lead to reductions in investment and output. RP DOTSEY, M (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND,RES DEPT,POB 27622,RICHMOND,VA 23261, USA. NR 38 TC 18 Z9 18 U1 1 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD JUN PY 1994 VL 33 IS 3 BP 507 EP 524 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(94)90041-8 PG 18 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA NU374 UT WOS:A1994NU37400003 ER PT J AU IRELAND, PN AF IRELAND, PN TI SUPPLY-SIDE ECONOMICS AND ENDOGENOUS GROWTH SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE TAXATION; ONE-SECTOR GROWTH MODEL ID POLICY; MODEL AB In a simple convex model of endogenous growth, the expansionary effects of a deficit-financed tax cut are often strong enough to allow the government debt to be paid off in the long run without the need for subsequent tax increases. A permanent and substantial reduction in marginal rates of income taxation can provide for both vigorous real economic growth and long-run government budget balance. RP IRELAND, PN (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND,RES DEPT,POB 27622,RICHMOND,VA 23261, USA. NR 7 TC 41 Z9 43 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD JUN PY 1994 VL 33 IS 3 BP 559 EP 571 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(94)90043-4 PG 13 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA NU374 UT WOS:A1994NU37400005 ER PT J AU MCGRATTAN, ER AF MCGRATTAN, ER TI THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF DISTORTIONARY TAXATION SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS; TAXATION; DYNAMIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM; MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ID BUSINESS-CYCLE MODEL; MARGINAL TAX RATES; AGGREGATE FLUCTUATIONS; SOCIAL-SECURITY; TIME; REALITY; BUILD; LABOR AB Prescott (1986) estimates that technology shocks account for 75% of the fluctuations in the postwar U.S. economy. This paper reestimates the contribution of technological change for a standard business cycle model that includes a public sector and fiscal disturbances. I find that a significant fraction of the variance of aggregate consumption, investment, output, capital stock, and hours of work can be explained by disturbances in labor and capital tax rates and government consumption. I also use the model to quantify the welfare costs of capital and labor taxation. For both the time series and welfare calculations, maximum likelihood estimates of taste, technology, and policy parameters are used. C1 DUKE UNIV,DURHAM,NC 27706. RP MCGRATTAN, ER (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,POB 291,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480, USA. NR 30 TC 128 Z9 131 U1 2 U2 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD JUN PY 1994 VL 33 IS 3 BP 573 EP 601 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(94)90044-2 PG 29 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA NU374 UT WOS:A1994NU37400006 ER PT J AU MAYER, CJ SIMONS, KV AF MAYER, CJ SIMONS, KV TI REVERSE MORTGAGES AND THE LIQUIDITY OF HOUSING WEALTH SO JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN REAL ESTATE AND URBAN ECONOMICS ASSOCIATION LA English DT Article AB Housing wealth constitutes most of the non-pension wealth of the elderly population. This study analyzes the potential of reverse mortgages to increase the income and liquid wealth of the elderly by identifying households with relatively high levels of housing equity. Because this article looks at the whole distribution of elderly households and considers debt as well as income, it finds a larger potential market for reverse mortgages than previous studies. Calculations from the 1990 Survey of Income and Program Participation and Census population estimates show that over six million homeowners in the United States could increase their effective monthly income by at least 20% by using a reverse mortgage. Of these, more than 1.3 million have no children. Furthermore, a reverse mortgage would allow over 1.4 million poor elderly persons to raise their incomes above the poverty line. RP MAYER, CJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. NR 12 TC 16 Z9 16 U1 1 U2 4 PU AMER REAL ESTATE URBAN ECONOMICS ASSOC PI BLOOMINGTON PA INDIANA UNIV, SCHOOL BUSINESS, RM 428, 1309 E TENTH ST, BLOOMINGTON, IN 47405 SN 0270-0484 J9 J AM REAL ESTATE URB PD SUM PY 1994 VL 22 IS 2 BP 235 EP 255 PG 21 WC Business, Finance; Planning & Development SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA NV476 UT WOS:A1994NV47600003 ER PT J AU MCCOMB, RP GRUBEN, WC WELCH, JH AF MCCOMB, RP GRUBEN, WC WELCH, JH TI PRIVATIZATION AND PERFORMANCE IN THE MEXICAN FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY SO QUARTERLY REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE LA English DT Article ID BANKING; ECONOMIES C1 FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,DALLAS,TX. RP MCCOMB, RP (reprint author), TEXAS TECH UNIV,DEPT ECON,BOX 41014,LUBBOCK,TX 79409, USA. NR 16 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 2 PU JAI PRESS INC PI GREENWICH PA 55 OLD POST RD-#2, PO BOX 1678, GREENWICH, CT 06836-1678 SN 1062-9769 J9 Q REV ECON FINANC JI Q. Rev. Econ. Financ. PD SUM PY 1994 VL 34 SI SI BP 217 EP 235 DI 10.1016/1062-9769(94)90043-4 PG 19 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA PN385 UT WOS:A1994PN38500010 ER PT J AU DUCA, JV ROSENTHAL, SS AF DUCA, JV ROSENTHAL, SS TI BORROWING CONSTRAINTS AND ACCESS TO OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSING SO REGIONAL SCIENCE AND URBAN ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE CREDIT CONSTRAINTS; HOUSING; TENURE CHOICE ID ECONOMETRIC-ANALYSIS; MORTGAGE MARKET; TENURE CHOICE; CREDIT; HOMEOWNERSHIP; REQUIREMENTS; CONSUMPTION; DECISIONS; DEMAND; INCOME AB Cross-sectional data from the 1983 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) enable us to identify two groups of households: those whose housing tenure status is unaffected by borrowing constraints, and those whose housing tenure status may be affected by borrowing constraints. Using these data, a bivariate probit model is estimated to evaluate the joint probability of whether families prefer to live in owner-occupied housing and whether borrowing constraints affect access to owner-occupied housing. Findings indicate that borrowing constraints have a significant negative effect on homeownership rates. Indeed, if borrowing constraints had not been binding in our sample period (the early 1980s), ceteris paribus, owner-occupancy rates in the United States would have risen from 64.5% to nearly 73%. Moreover, borrowing constraints appear to have a disproportionate effect on the ability of younger families and non-white families to own a home, consistent with popular perceptions. C1 UNIV BRITISH COLUMBIA,FAC COMMERCE & BUSINESS ADM,VANCOUVER V6T 1Z2,BC,CANADA. FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,RES DEPT,DALLAS,TX 75256. NR 30 TC 31 Z9 31 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0166-0462 J9 REG SCI URBAN ECON JI Reg. Sci. Urban Econ. PD JUN PY 1994 VL 24 IS 3 BP 301 EP 322 DI 10.1016/0166-0462(93)02041-Z PG 22 WC Economics; Environmental Studies; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Urban Studies GA NY339 UT WOS:A1994NY33900002 ER PT J AU ESPINOSAVEGA, MA YIP, CK AF ESPINOSAVEGA, MA YIP, CK TI ON THE SUSTAINABILITY OF INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID DETERRENCE; ENTRY AB The motivation of this paper rests on the attempts by some groups of countries to coordinate their macroeconomic policies. Implicit in these attempts is the notion that coordination by at least some countries is better than zero coordination. We use a dynamic general equilibrium model of international coordination to study the properties of a partial coordination scheme. We find that, indeed, some coordination is Pareto superior to zero coordination. Although a free-riding incentive problem arises in partial coordination schemes, such schemes are sustainable provided the relative size of the coalition is chosen ''appropriately.'' C1 GEORGIA STATE UNIV,ATLANTA,GA 30303. RP ESPINOSAVEGA, MA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,ATLANTA,GA, USA. NR 12 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 1 U2 2 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1994 VL 35 IS 2 BP 383 EP 396 DI 10.2307/2527059 PG 14 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NK310 UT WOS:A1994NK31000007 ER PT J AU LABADIE, P AF LABADIE, P TI THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST-RATES OVER THE BUSINESS-CYCLE SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article DE RISK PREMIUMS; YIELD CURVE; TREND VS DIFFERENCE STATIONARY; BUSINESS CYCLE ID PRICES; REAL AB Whether real GNP is assumed to be trend-stationary or difference-stationary, which implies that shocks have transitory or permanent effects, is critically important in explaining the behavior of the forward risk premium, the term risk premium, and changes in the yield curve over the business cycle. While this is the main result, there are two additional results of interest. First, although movements in the nominal yield spread are useful in predicting future economic activity, these movements are not enough to separate real from nominal shocks. The source of the shock can be determined if movements in the spread and shifts in the nominal yield curve are used jointly. Second, the yield differential, which is defined as the difference between the yields on inflation-indexed bonds and nominal bonds, is generally a biased predictor of expected inflation and may signal the wrong information about changes in expected inflation. RP LABADIE, P (reprint author), BOARD GOVERNORS FED RESERVE SYST,MAILSTOP 70,20TH & C ST,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 17 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 3 U2 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD MAY-JUL PY 1994 VL 18 IS 3-4 BP 671 EP 697 DI 10.1016/0165-1889(94)90027-2 PG 27 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NQ278 UT WOS:A1994NQ27800007 ER PT J AU IRELAND, PN AF IRELAND, PN TI ECONOMIC-GROWTH, FINANCIAL EVOLUTION, AND THE LONG-RUN BEHAVIOR OF VELOCITY SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article DE ECONOMIC GROWTH; FINANCIAL INNOVATION; VELOCITY OF MONEY ID TRANSACTIONS COSTS; MONEY; DEMAND; INTERMEDIATION; POLICY AB A general equilibrium model is presented in which buyers and sellers find it increasingly difficult to make private credit arrangements as economic activity spreads into new markets; hence, the demand for money increases as the structure of production and trade becomes more complex. At the same time, however, financial innovations allow agents to economize on their cash balances. Together, these effects of technological progress account for two empirical regularities, the U-shaped pattern in velocity and the ever-increasing share of productive resources devoted to the private financial sector, that are associated with the process of real economic growth. RP IRELAND, PN (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND,RES DEPT,POB 27622,RICHMOND,VA 23261, USA. NR 43 TC 13 Z9 13 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD MAY-JUL PY 1994 VL 18 IS 3-4 BP 815 EP 848 DI 10.1016/0165-1889(94)90033-7 PG 34 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NQ278 UT WOS:A1994NQ27800013 ER PT J AU WEST, KD WILCOX, DW AF WEST, KD WILCOX, DW TI ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE IN THE LINEAR-QUADRATIC INVENTORY MODEL SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article DE LINEAR-QUADRATIC INVENTORY MODEL; ASYMPTOTIC THEORY; SIMULATION ID MOMENTS ESTIMATORS; GENERALIZED-METHOD; BEHAVIOR; BOUNDS AB We summarize some recent work of ours on estimation and hypothesis testing on the parameters of the linear-quadratic inventory model. For some data-generating processes calibrated to estimates from some existing studies, this work uses (1) asymptotic theory to compare alternative estimators on the basis of the asymptotic efficiency of parameter estimates, (2) asymptotic theory and simulations to consider how likely one will be to get sharp estimates of the parameters of the model, and (3) simulations to see how accurately sized are hypothesis tests about the parameters of the model. C1 BOARD GOVERNORS FED RESERVE SYST,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP WEST, KD (reprint author), UNIV WISCONSIN,DEPT ECON,1180 OBSERV DR,MADISON,WI 53706, USA. RI West, Kenneth/A-5693-2008 NR 17 TC 10 Z9 10 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD MAY-JUL PY 1994 VL 18 IS 3-4 BP 897 EP 908 DI 10.1016/0165-1889(94)90037-X PG 12 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NQ278 UT WOS:A1994NQ27800017 ER PT J AU KLEIN, MW ROSENGREN, E AF KLEIN, MW ROSENGREN, E TI THE REAL EXCHANGE-RATE AND FOREIGN DIRECT-INVESTMENT IN THE UNITED-STATES - RELATIVE WEALTH VS RELATIVE WAGE EFFECTS SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT; RELATIVE WAGES; RELATIVE WEALTH AB There has been a significant correlation between U.S. inward foreign direct investment and the United States real exchange rate since the 1970s. In this paper we examine the determinants of four measures of inward foreign direct investment to the United States from seven industrial countries over the period 1979-1991. We find strong evidence that relative wealth significantly affects U.S. inward foreign direct investment. We find no evidence that relative wages have a significant impact on the determination of U.S. foreign direct investment. C1 FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,DEPT RES,BOSTON,MA 02106. TUFTS UNIV,FLETCHER SCH LAW & DIPLOMACY,MEDFORD,MA 02155. NBER,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. NR 16 TC 97 Z9 98 U1 0 U2 8 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD MAY PY 1994 VL 36 IS 3-4 BP 373 EP 389 DI 10.1016/0022-1996(94)90009-4 PG 17 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NT159 UT WOS:A1994NT15900010 ER PT J AU CHATTERJEE, S AF CHATTERJEE, S TI TRANSITIONAL DYNAMICS AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH IN A NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH-MODEL SO JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID INCOME AB The evolution of the personal distribution of wealth in a standard neoclassical growth model is studied. If the economy is growing toward the steady state and preferences are such that marginal utility from consumption is infinite (finite) at some (all) positive (non-negative) consumption level(s), then the average saving propensity of agents is positively (negatively) related to their wealth. If the economy is decaying toward the steady state, these relationships are reversed. If wealth and average saving propensity are positively (negatively) related, the distribution of current period wealth Lorenz-dominates (is Lorenz-dominated by) next period's distribution of wealth. RP CHATTERJEE, S (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,RES DEPT,10 INDEPENDENCE MALL,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 14 TC 54 Z9 55 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0047-2727 J9 J PUBLIC ECON JI J. Public Econ. PD MAY PY 1994 VL 54 IS 1 BP 97 EP 119 DI 10.1016/0047-2727(94)90072-8 PG 23 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NU828 UT WOS:A1994NU82800005 ER PT J AU BLOUGH, SR AF BLOUGH, SR TI YIELD CURVE FORECASTS OF INFLATION - A CAUTIONARY TALE SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID TERM-STRUCTURE; INTEREST-RATES; BEHAVIOR; RETURNS RP BLOUGH, SR (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA, USA. NR 14 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAY-JUN PY 1994 BP 3 EP 15 PG 13 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NU037 UT WOS:A1994NU03700001 ER PT J AU KODRZYCKI, YK AF KODRZYCKI, YK TI PRIVATIZATION OF LOCAL PUBLIC-SERVICES - LESSONS FOR NEW-ENGLAND SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID TRANSIT; PERFORMANCE RP KODRZYCKI, YK (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA, USA. NR 34 TC 26 Z9 26 U1 2 U2 4 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAY-JUN PY 1994 BP 31 EP 46 PG 16 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NU037 UT WOS:A1994NU03700003 ER PT J AU FRANKEL, JA LOWN, CS AF FRANKEL, JA LOWN, CS TI AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE INFLATION EXTRACTED FROM THE STEEPNESS OF THE INTEREST-RATE YIELD CURVE ALONG ITS ENTIRE LENGTH SO QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID TERM-STRUCTURE FORECASTS; INFORMATION AB The term-structure slope contains information about expected future inflation. Mishkin shows that the spread between the twelve-month and three-month interest rates helps predict the difference between twelve-month and three-month inflation. We apply a simple existing framework, which lets the real interest rate vary in the short run but converge to a constant in the long run, to this problem. The appropriate indicator of expected inflation uses the entire length of the yield curve, estimating the steepness of a specific nonlinear transformation, rather than being restricted to a spread between two points. The resulting indicator better predicts inflation, over 1960-1991. C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045. RP FRANKEL, JA (reprint author), UNIV CALIF BERKELEY,BERKELEY,CA 94720, USA. NR 19 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 6 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0033-5533 J9 Q J ECON JI Q. J. Econ. PD MAY PY 1994 VL 109 IS 2 BP 519 EP 530 PG 12 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NQ071 UT WOS:A1994NQ07100008 ER PT J AU GOULD, DM AF GOULD, DM TI IMMIGRANT LINKS TO THE HOME COUNTRY - EMPIRICAL IMPLICATIONS FOR UNITED-STATES BILATERAL TRADE-FLOWS SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID INTERNATIONAL-TRADE; GRAVITY EQUATION AB Immigrants' ties to their home countries can play a key role in fostering bilateral trade linkages. Immigrant ties include knowledge of home-country markets, language, preferences, and business contacts that have the potential to decrease trading transaction costs. Empirical results for the United States suggest that immigrant links have historically been important in increasing bilateral trade flows with immigrants' home countries. RP GOULD, DM (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,DALLAS,TX 75222, USA. NR 24 TC 234 Z9 236 U1 2 U2 11 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD MAY PY 1994 VL 76 IS 2 BP 302 EP 316 DI 10.2307/2109884 PG 15 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA PA925 UT WOS:A1994PA92500009 ER PT J AU FALLICK, BC AF FALLICK, BC TI THE ENDOGENEITY OF ADVANCE NOTICE AND FEAR OF DESTRUCTIVE ATTRITION SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Note AB This study simultaneously estimates the likelihoods that a worker receives advance notice of a plant closing and that a notified worker quits the job before its scheduled end. I find that fear of early attrition is a significant determinant of a firm's decision to provide advance notice. Explicit consideration of employer's concerns may significantly improve prediction of advance notice. RP FALLICK, BC (reprint author), FED RES BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 15 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 0 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD MAY PY 1994 VL 76 IS 2 BP 378 EP 384 DI 10.2307/2109896 PG 7 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA PA925 UT WOS:A1994PA92500021 ER PT J AU JORDAN, JL MORRIS, FE AF JORDAN, JL MORRIS, FE TI SEARCHING FOR A MONETARY-POLICY TARGET SO CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY LA English DT Article C1 BOSTON UNIV,BOSTON,MA 02215. RP JORDAN, JL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH, USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 SN 0735-0007 J9 CONTEMP ECON POLICY JI Contemp. Econ. Policy PD APR PY 1994 VL 12 IS 2 BP 21 EP 34 PG 14 WC Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA NM197 UT WOS:A1994NM19700002 ER PT J AU ROSENGREN, ES MEEHAN, JW AF ROSENGREN, ES MEEHAN, JW TI EMPIRICAL-EVIDENCE ON VERTICAL FORECLOSURE SO ECONOMIC INQUIRY LA English DT Article ID MARKET FORECLOSURE; MERGERS AB Recent papers have shown conditions under which vertical mergers can result in anticompetitive foreclosure of unintegrated rivals. One implication of these models is that a necessary condition for anticompetitive foreclosure is that unintegrated rival firms are less profitable after a vertical merger. We test this hypothesis by examining the stock prices of unintegrated rivals at the time of a vertical merger announcement and at the time of a government antitrust complaint. We find no evidence to support the foreclosure hypothesis. C1 COLBY COLL,WATERVILLE,ME 04901. RP ROSENGREN, ES (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA, USA. NR 16 TC 14 Z9 14 U1 1 U2 2 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 SN 0095-2583 J9 ECON INQ JI Econ. Inq. PD APR PY 1994 VL 32 IS 2 BP 303 EP 317 PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NM127 UT WOS:A1994NM12700009 ER PT J AU GUNTHER, JW AF GUNTHER, JW TI REGIONAL CAPITAL IMBALANCES AND THE REMOVAL OF INTERSTATE BANKING RESTRICTIONS SO ECONOMICS LETTERS LA English DT Article AB An analysis of differences in the openness of interstate banking laws suggests that both regional banking difficulties and the strategic concerns of large banking organizations influenced the recent movement toward nationwide banking in the United States. RP GUNTHER, JW (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,2200 N PEARL ST,DALLAS,TX 75201, USA. NR 5 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0165-1765 J9 ECON LETT JI Econ. Lett. PD APR PY 1994 VL 44 IS 4 BP 439 EP 442 DI 10.1016/0165-1765(94)90118-X PG 4 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NK392 UT WOS:A1994NK39200018 ER PT J AU AIYAGARI, SR AF AIYAGARI, SR TI FRICTIONS IN ASSET PRICING AND MACROECONOMICS SO EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 8th Annual Congress of the European-Economic-Association CY AUG 27-29, 1993 CL HELSINKI, FINLAND SP European Econ Assoc DE COMPLETE MARKETS; INCOMPLETE MARKETS; PRECAUTIONARY MOTIVE; BORROWING CONSTRAINTS ID TRANSACTIONS COSTS; EQUILIBRIUM; INFORMATION; MODEL AB This paper is about a useful way of taking account of frictions in asset pricing and macroeconomics. I start by noting that complete frictionless markets models have a number of empirical dericiencies. Then I suggest an alternative class of models with incomplete markets and heterogeneous agents which can also accommodate a variety of other frictions. These models are quantitatively attractive and computationally feasible and have the potential to overcome many or all of the empirical deficiencies of complete frictionless markets models. The incomplete markets model can also differ significantly from the complete frictionless markets model on some important policy questions. RP AIYAGARI, SR (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,POB 291,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480, USA. NR 19 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0014-2921 J9 EUR ECON REV JI Eur. Econ. Rev. PD APR PY 1994 VL 38 IS 3-4 BP 932 EP 939 DI 10.1016/0014-2921(94)90129-5 PG 8 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NQ378 UT WOS:A1994NQ37800048 ER PT J AU NEUMARK, D WASCHER, W AF NEUMARK, D WASCHER, W TI EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF MINIMUM AND SUBMINIMUM WAGES - REPLY SO INDUSTRIAL & LABOR RELATIONS REVIEW LA English DT Letter C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NBER,CAMBRIDGE,MA. RP NEUMARK, D (reprint author), UNIV PENN,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104, USA. NR 18 TC 46 Z9 46 U1 0 U2 4 PU INDUSTRIAL LABOR RELAT REV PI ITHACA PA CORNELL UNIV, ITHACA, NY 14851-0952 SN 0019-7939 J9 IND LABOR RELAT REV JI Ind. Labor Relat. Rev. PD APR PY 1994 VL 47 IS 3 BP 497 EP 512 DI 10.2307/2524980 PG 16 WC Industrial Relations & Labor SC Business & Economics GA NG292 UT WOS:A1994NG29200009 ER PT J AU MONTGOMERY, E STOCKTON, D AF MONTGOMERY, E STOCKTON, D TI EVIDENCE ON THE CAUSES OF THE RISING DISPERSION OF RELATIVE WAGES SO INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS LA English DT Article ID UNITED-STATES; INTERINDUSTRY AB In this paper, a neoclassical model of interindustry wage dispersion is derived and used to examine explicitly the fundamental role of microeconomic variables in determining relative wage movements. The empirical results demonstrate that the variance of labor quality and capital intensities across sectors are the primary determinants of the movement of the dispersion of relative wages within the manufacturing sector in the postwar period. Although the relative wage structure exhibits some response to unemployment, it is not sensitive to changes in inflation. The macro variables were also of limited quantitative importance in explaining changes in the relative wage structure. C1 BOARD GOVERNORS FED RESERVE SYST,DIV RES,WASHINGTON,DC. RP MONTGOMERY, E (reprint author), UNIV MARYLAND,DEPT ECON,COLLEGE PK,MD 20742, USA. NR 30 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU BLACKWELL PUBLISHERS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 350 MAIN STREET, STE 6, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02148-5023 SN 0019-8676 J9 IND RELAT JI Ind. Relat. PD APR PY 1994 VL 33 IS 2 BP 206 EP 228 DI 10.1111/j.1468-232X.1994.tb00336.x PG 23 WC Industrial Relations & Labor SC Business & Economics GA NM762 UT WOS:A1994NM76200005 ER PT J AU FENN, GW COLE, RA AF FENN, GW COLE, RA TI ANNOUNCEMENTS OF ASSET-QUALITY PROBLEMS AND CONTAGION EFFECTS IN THE LIFE-INSURANCE INDUSTRY SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE CONTAGION; WRITEDOWN; DISINTERMEDIATION; LIFE INSURANCE ID MANAGERIAL INCENTIVES; SECURITY RETURNS; WRITEDOWNS; BANKS AB We investigate contagion effects in the stock returns of life insurance companies at the time of announcements by First Executive and Travelers of significant problems in their investment portfolios. We first demonstrate that investments in junk bonds or commercial mortgages are important for the shareholder wealth effects of other life insurance companies. We then directly link the shareholder wealth effects to characteristics of firms' customers. Our evidence shows that effects on shareholder wealth are larger for companies with significant junk bond/commercial mortgage assets and readily mobile customers as represented by guaranteed investment contracts (GICs). RP FENN, GW (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,MAIL STOP 89,20TH & C ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. RI Cole, Rebel/C-4399-2008 OI Cole, Rebel/0000-0001-9830-662X NR 11 TC 32 Z9 33 U1 5 U2 11 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0304-405X J9 J FINANC ECON JI J. Financ. Econ. PD APR PY 1994 VL 35 IS 2 BP 181 EP 198 DI 10.1016/0304-405X(94)90003-5 PG 18 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA ND291 UT WOS:A1994ND29100002 ER PT J AU CROUSHORE, D KOOT, RS AF CROUSHORE, D KOOT, RS TI A MEASURE OF FEDERAL-RESERVE CREDIBILITY SO JOURNAL OF POLICY MODELING LA English DT Article ID MONETARY-POLICY; EXPECTATIONS; MODEL AB We create two credibility variables, one depending on the correspondence between the Fed forecast of inflation and the private sector's forecast, the other between the Fed forecast and actual inflation. These are measures of credibility in terms of whether the public believes that the Fed will carry out its announced policy and whether the policy will have the effect claimed by the Fed. We find that credibility was surprisingly high in the late 1970s. The Fed's change in regime led to little change in credibility. The credibility variables help reduce the forecast errors of the Phillips curve in the early 1980s. C1 PENN STATE UNIV,UNIV PK,PA 16802. RP CROUSHORE, D (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,RES DEPT,10 INDEPENDENCE MALL,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 21 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 1 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0161-8938 J9 J POLICY MODEL JI J. Policy Model. PD APR PY 1994 VL 16 IS 2 BP 215 EP 231 DI 10.1016/0161-8938(94)90021-3 PG 17 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NM952 UT WOS:A1994NM95200005 ER PT J AU HAUBRICH, JG AF HAUBRICH, JG TI RISK-AVERSION, PERFORMANCE PAY, AND THE PRINCIPAL-AGENT PROBLEM SO JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Article ID INCENTIVES AB This paper calculates numerical solutions to the principal-agent problem and compares the results to the stylized facts of CEO compensation. The numerical predictions come from parameterizing the models of Grossman and Hart and of Holmstrom and Milgrom. While the correct incentives for a CEO can greatly enhance a firm's performance, providing such incentives need not be expensive. For many parameter values, CEO compensation need increase only by about $10 for every $1,000 of additional shareholder value; for some values, the amount is 0.003 cents. RP HAUBRICH, JG (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44114, USA. NR 13 TC 116 Z9 118 U1 8 U2 21 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0022-3808 J9 J POLIT ECON JI J. Polit. Econ. PD APR PY 1994 VL 102 IS 2 BP 258 EP 276 DI 10.1086/261931 PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NM096 UT WOS:A1994NM09600003 ER PT J AU PARENTE, SL PRESCOTT, EC AF PARENTE, SL PRESCOTT, EC TI BARRIERS TO TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION AND DEVELOPMENT SO JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Meeting of the American-Economic-Association CY DEC, 1990 CL WASHINGTON, DC SP AMER ECON ASSOC ID GROWTH AB We propose a theory of economic development in which technology adoption and barriers to such adoptions are the focus. The size of these barriers differs across countries and time. The larger these barriers, the greater the investment a firm must make to adopt a more advanced technology. The model is calibrated to the U.S. balanced growth observations and the postwar Japanese development miracle. For this calibrated structure we find that the disparity in technology adoption barriers needed to account for the huge observed income disparity across countries is not implausibly large. C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. RP PARENTE, SL (reprint author), NORTHEASTERN UNIV,BOSTON,MA 02115, USA. NR 29 TC 297 Z9 302 U1 6 U2 29 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0022-3808 J9 J POLIT ECON JI J. Polit. Econ. PD APR PY 1994 VL 102 IS 2 BP 298 EP 321 DI 10.1086/261933 PG 24 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NM096 UT WOS:A1994NM09600005 ER PT J AU HUTCHISON, MM AF HUTCHISON, MM TI MANUFACTURING SECTOR RESILIENCY TO ENERGY BOOMS - EMPIRICAL-EVIDENCE FROM NORWAY, THE NETHERLANDS, AND THE UNITED-KINGDOM SO OXFORD ECONOMIC PAPERS-NEW SERIES LA English DT Article ID OPEN-ECONOMY; COINTEGRATION C1 FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO,SAN FRANCISCO,CA. RP HUTCHISON, MM (reprint author), UNIV CALIF SANTA CRUZ,DEPT ECON,SANTA CRUZ,CA 95064, USA. NR 35 TC 13 Z9 13 U1 0 U2 3 PU OXFORD UNIV PRESS UNITED KINGDOM PI OXFORD PA WALTON ST JOURNALS DEPT, OXFORD, ENGLAND OX2 6DP SN 0030-7653 J9 OXFORD ECON PAP JI Oxf. Econ. Pap.-New Ser. PD APR PY 1994 VL 46 IS 2 BP 311 EP 329 PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NH858 UT WOS:A1994NH85800010 ER PT J AU BOMFIM, A SHAH, A AF BOMFIM, A SHAH, A TI MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT AND THE DIVISION OF POWERS IN BRAZIL - PERSPECTIVES FOR THE 1990S SO WORLD DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article AB In 1988, a new constitution redefined the division of powers among federal and sub-national governments in Brazil. We examine the implications of the new power-sharing arrangements for federal control over macroeconomic policies. Our findings suggest that the new order has limited, but not imperiled, the scope of fiscal policy as a stabilization tool. In contrast, we find that federal control over monetary policy has been significantly enhanced. We also argue that, as currently organized, the Brazilian fiscal and monetary systems interact in ways that are not well understood; therefore, the actions taken by the federal government may not achieve the desired results. C1 WORLD BANK,WASHINGTON,DC 20433. RP BOMFIM, A (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC, USA. NR 10 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 1 PU PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD PI OXFORD PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD, ENGLAND OX5 1GB SN 0305-750X J9 WORLD DEV JI World Dev. PD APR PY 1994 VL 22 IS 4 BP 535 EP 542 DI 10.1016/0305-750X(94)90109-0 PG 8 WC Economics; Planning & Development SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA NU834 UT WOS:A1994NU83400004 ER PT J AU WATSON, MW AF WATSON, MW TI BUSINESS-CYCLE DURATIONS AND POSTWAR STABILIZATION OF THE UNITED-STATES-ECONOMY SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AB Average postwar expansions are twice as long as prewar expansions, and contractions are one-half as long. This paper investigates three possible explanations. The first explanation is that shocks to the economy have been smaller in the postwar period The second explanation is that the composition of output has shifted from very cyclical sectors to less cyclical sectors. The third explanation is that the apparent stabilization is largely spurious and is caused by differences in the way that prewar and postwar business-cycle reference dates were chosen by the NBER. The evidence presented in this paper favors this third explanation. C1 FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL. RP WATSON, MW (reprint author), NORTHWESTERN UNIV,DEPT ECON,EVANSTON,IL 60201, USA. NR 29 TC 76 Z9 77 U1 0 U2 3 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAR PY 1994 VL 84 IS 1 BP 24 EP 46 PG 23 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NA542 UT WOS:A1994NA54200002 ER PT J AU IRELAND, PN AF IRELAND, PN TI MONEY AND GROWTH - AN ALTERNATIVE APPROACH SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID REAL BUSINESS-CYCLE; FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION; MODERATE INFLATIONS; WELFARE COSTS; POLICY; MODEL; ECONOMY AB This paper takes an alternative approach to the topic of money and growth by developing a model in which the effects of sustained capital accumulation on an evolving system of payments, in addition to the conventional effects of sustained inflation on growth, are examined. While the effects of inflation on growth are small, the effects of growth on the monetary system are substantial. The results are consistent with ideas about money and growth contained in work that predates that of Tobin and Sidrauski, as well as with evidence that money and asset demands vary systematically within economies as they develop. RP IRELAND, PN (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND,DEPT RES,RICHMOND,VA 23261, USA. NR 40 TC 56 Z9 57 U1 0 U2 7 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAR PY 1994 VL 84 IS 1 BP 47 EP 65 PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NA542 UT WOS:A1994NA54200003 ER PT J AU BACKUS, DK KEHOE, PJ KYDLAND, FE AF BACKUS, DK KEHOE, PJ KYDLAND, FE TI DYNAMICS OF THE TRADE BALANCE AND THE TERMS OF TRADE - THE J-CURVE SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID SMALL OPEN-ECONOMY; REAL BUSINESS CYCLES; PRODUCTIVITY SHOCKS; RELATIVE PRICES; CURRENT ACCOUNT; INVESTMENT; GOODS AB We provide a theoretical interpretation of two features of international data: the countercyclical movements in net exports and the tendency for the trade balance to be negatively correlated with current and future movements in the terms of trade, but positively correlated with past movements. We document the same properties in a two-country stochastic growth model in which trade fluctuations reflect, in large part, the dynamics of capital formation. We find that our general-equilibrium perspective is essential: the relation between the trade balance and the terms of trade depends critically on the source of fluctuations. C1 UNIV PENN, DEPT ECON, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19104 USA. FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS, DEPT RES, 250 MARQUETTE AVE, MINNEAPOLIS, MN 55480 USA. CARNEGIE MELLON UNIV, GSIA, PITTSBURGH, PA 15213 USA. FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND, DEPT RES, CLEVELAND, OH 44101 USA. RP BACKUS, DK (reprint author), NYU, STERN SCH BUSINESS, NEW YORK, NY 10012 USA. NR 39 TC 271 Z9 278 U1 10 U2 29 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAR PY 1994 VL 84 IS 1 BP 84 EP 103 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NA542 UT WOS:A1994NA54200005 ER PT J AU WILLIAMSON, S WRIGHT, R AF WILLIAMSON, S WRIGHT, R TI BARTER AND MONETARY EXCHANGE UNDER PRIVATE INFORMATION SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID SEARCH EQUILIBRIUM; MONEY; ECONOMY AB We develop a model of production and exchange with uncertainty concerning the quality of commodities and study the role of fiat money in ameliorating frictions caused by private information. The model is specified so that, without private information, only high-quality commodities are produced, and there is no welfare gain from using money. With private information, there can be equilibria (and sometimes multiple equilibria) where low-quality commodities are produced, and money can increase welfare. Money works by promoting useful production and exchange. In efficient monetary equilibria, agents adopt strategies that increase the probability of acquiring high-quality output. C1 UNIV PENN,DEPT ECON,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,250 MARQUETTE AVE,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. RP WILLIAMSON, S (reprint author), UNIV IOWA,DEPT ECON,IOWA CITY,IA 52242, USA. NR 32 TC 85 Z9 86 U1 1 U2 7 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAR PY 1994 VL 84 IS 1 BP 104 EP 123 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NA542 UT WOS:A1994NA54200006 ER PT J AU CLARIDA, RH AF CLARIDA, RH TI COINTEGRATION, AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION, AND THE DEMAND FOR IMPORTS - A STRUCTURAL ECONOMETRIC INVESTIGATION SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID INTERTEMPORAL SUBSTITUTION; MODEL; TESTS C1 NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045. RP CLARIDA, RH (reprint author), COLUMBIA UNIV,DEPT ECON,NEW YORK,NY 10027, USA. NR 26 TC 35 Z9 35 U1 0 U2 3 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAR PY 1994 VL 84 IS 1 BP 298 EP 308 PG 11 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NA542 UT WOS:A1994NA54200018 ER PT J AU MCNEES, SK AF MCNEES, SK TI BUSINESS CYCLES, INDICATORS, AND FORECASTING - STOCK,JH, WATSON,MW SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE LA English DT Book Review RP MCNEES, SK (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0022-0515 J9 J ECON LIT JI J. Econ. Lit. PD MAR PY 1994 VL 32 IS 1 BP 135 EP 136 PG 2 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NE668 UT WOS:A1994NE66800020 ER PT J AU CRABBE, L POST, MA AF CRABBE, L POST, MA TI THE EFFECT OF A RATING DOWNGRADE ON OUTSTANDING COMMERCIAL PAPER SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Article ID STOCK RETURNS; BOND; PRICES; MARKET; DEBT AB Diamond (1991) argues that a firm's reputation determines whether it borrows directly or through an intermediary. We test the Diamond model by examining the quantity response of commercial paper issued by bank holding companies to a rating downgrade. From 1986 to 1991, cumulative abnormal declines averaged 6.69 percent in the first two weeks after the downgrade and 11.05 percent in the subsequent 12 weeks. In contrast to commercial paper issued by bank holding companies, large CDs issued by affiliated banks did not change significantly in the period around a downgrade, suggesting that deposit insurance may have removed market discipline from the CD market. RP CRABBE, L (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV RES & STAT,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 29 TC 18 Z9 18 U1 4 U2 11 PU AMER FINANCE ASSN PI NEW YORK PA 44 WEST FOURTH ST, STE 9-190, NEW YORK, NY 10012 SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD MAR PY 1994 VL 49 IS 1 BP 39 EP 56 DI 10.2307/2329134 PG 18 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA NE865 UT WOS:A1994NE86500002 ER PT J AU DUCA, JV ROSENTHAL, SS AF DUCA, JV ROSENTHAL, SS TI DO MORTGAGE RATES VARY BASED ON HOUSEHOLD DEFAULT CHARACTERISTICS - EVIDENCE ON RATE SORTING AND CREDIT RATIONING SO JOURNAL OF REAL ESTATE FINANCE AND ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE MORTGAGE RATES; CREDIT RATIONING; DISCRIMINATION ID IMPERFECT INFORMATION; CONSUMPTION; MARKET; INCOME AB Credit ''screening models'' suggest that lenders vary loan rates and debt ceilings across applicants on the basis of credit risk. We argue that regulatory constraints such as Fair Lending Laws may preclude rate sorting while increasing lender use of debt ceilings to adjust for applicant credit risk. Using household data from the 1983 SCF, we find that mortgage rates do not vary with applicant credit risk whereas related studies find that debt ceilings vary with borrower risk attributes. Together, these findings support arguments that regulatory constraints reduce rate sorting while increasing the use of non-price terms in the mortgage contract. C1 UNIV BRITISH COLUMBIA,FAC COMMERCE & BUS ADM,VANCOUVER V6T 1Z2,BC,CANADA. RP DUCA, JV (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,DEPT RES,POB 655906,DALLAS,TX 75265, USA. NR 29 TC 20 Z9 20 U1 1 U2 7 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0895-5638 J9 J REAL ESTATE FINANC JI J. Real Estate Financ. Econ. PD MAR PY 1994 VL 8 IS 2 BP 99 EP 113 DI 10.1007/BF01097032 PG 15 WC Business, Finance; Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA MX372 UT WOS:A1994MX37200001 ER PT J AU FERGUS, JT GOODMAN, JL AF FERGUS, JT GOODMAN, JL TI THE 1989-92 CREDIT CRUNCH FOR REAL-ESTATE - A RETROSPECTIVE SO JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN REAL ESTATE AND URBAN ECONOMICS ASSOCIATION LA English DT Article AB This study surveys a broad range of information to establish the degree to which real estate lending and construction activity decreased in the 1989-92 period owing to a ''credit crunch.'' It reviews the conditions that led up to the contraction in mortgage lending and construction and then documents the extent to which the evidence is consistent with a credit crunch in lending for residential and nonresidential construction, permanent financing of income properties, and residential mortgage lending. Also, this study weighs the relative importance of the credit crunch and other factors that contributed to the falloff in real estate lending and contrasts the recent period with earlier credit crunch episodes. RP FERGUS, JT (reprint author), FED RES SYST, BOARD GOVERNORS, DIV RES & STAT, WASHINGTON, DC 20551 USA. NR 23 TC 14 Z9 14 U1 0 U2 1 PU AMER REAL ESTATE URBAN ECONOMICS ASSOC PI BLOOMINGTON PA INDIANA UNIV, SCHOOL BUSINESS, RM 428, 1309 E TENTH ST, BLOOMINGTON, IN 47405 USA SN 0270-0484 J9 J AM REAL ESTATE URB PD SPR PY 1994 VL 22 IS 1 BP 5 EP 32 PG 28 WC Business, Finance; Planning & Development SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA NE681 UT WOS:A1994NE68100002 ER PT J AU PEEK, J ROSENGREN, ES AF PEEK, J ROSENGREN, ES TI BANK REAL-ESTATE LENDING AND THE NEW-ENGLAND CAPITAL CRUNCH SO JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN REAL ESTATE AND URBAN ECONOMICS ASSOCIATION LA English DT Article AB The stock of real estate loans held by New England banks has declined dramatically. Given the limited potential for real estate investments, weak demand for real estate loans is to be expected. However, supply as well as demand factors may account for some of the decline in bank real estate loans. This paper documents that bank lending for real estate may have been constrained by a capital crunch, whereby poorly capitalized banks shrank their assets, including real estate loans, to satisfy capital requirements. Because the loss of bank capital is so widespread in New England, bank-dependent borrowers may have difficulty obtaining real estate financing. C1 FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON, RES DEPT, BOSTON, MA 02106 USA. RP PEEK, J (reprint author), BOSTON UNIV, DEPT ECON, BOSTON, MA 02215 USA. NR 18 TC 24 Z9 24 U1 0 U2 1 PU AMER REAL ESTATE URBAN ECONOMICS ASSOC PI BLOOMINGTON PA INDIANA UNIV, SCHOOL BUSINESS, RM 428, 1309 E TENTH ST, BLOOMINGTON, IN 47405 USA SN 0270-0484 J9 J AM REAL ESTATE URB PD SPR PY 1994 VL 22 IS 1 BP 33 EP 58 PG 26 WC Business, Finance; Planning & Development SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA NE681 UT WOS:A1994NE68100003 ER PT J AU HANCOCK, D WILCOX, JA AF HANCOCK, D WILCOX, JA TI BANK CAPITAL AND THE CREDIT CRUNCH - THE ROLES OF RISK-WEIGHTED AND UNWEIGHTED CAPITAL REGULATIONS SO JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN REAL ESTATE AND URBAN ECONOMICS ASSOCIATION LA English DT Article AB We investigated whether in recent years banks have increased their holdings of securities at the expense of their holdings of business loans in response to shortfalls of their capital relative to risk-weighted capital standards and relative to a capital standard that made no explicit allowance for credit risk. We estimated that bank credit fell by about $4.50 for each $1 that a bank's capital fell short of the unweighted capital standard. Banks that had less capital than required by the risk-weighted standard appear to have shifted away from assets with low risk weights (securities and single-family mortgages) and to have shifted toward assets with higher risk weights (commercial real estate and commercial and industrial loans). When we included both shortfall variables in a regression, shortfalls relative to the unweighted capital standard significantly affected bank credit, while shortfalls of capital relative to the risk-weighted standard did not. We found no significant effects of capital shortfalls at other, local-competitor banks on bank portfolios. Delinquencies in a given category of a bank's loans generally had significantly negative effects on that bank's holdings of loans in that category. In contrast, banks tended to increase holdings of loans in categories in which local-competitor banks were experiencing higher delinquency rates. C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BROAD GOVERNORS,MAIL STOP 188,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. UNIV CALIF BERKELEY,BERKELEY,CA 94720. NR 22 TC 40 Z9 40 U1 2 U2 6 PU AMER REAL ESTATE URBAN ECONOMICS ASSOC PI BLOOMINGTON PA INDIANA UNIV, SCHOOL BUSINESS, RM 428, 1309 E TENTH ST, BLOOMINGTON, IN 47405 SN 0270-0484 J9 J AM REAL ESTATE URB PD SPR PY 1994 VL 22 IS 1 BP 59 EP 94 PG 36 WC Business, Finance; Planning & Development SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA NE681 UT WOS:A1994NE68100004 ER PT J AU COLE, RA MCKENZIE, JA AF COLE, RA MCKENZIE, JA TI THRIFT ASSET-CLASS RETURNS AND THE EFFICIENT DIVERSIFICATION OF THRIFT INSTITUTION PORTFOLIOS SO JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN REAL ESTATE AND URBAN ECONOMICS ASSOCIATION LA English DT Article ID COMMERCIAL REAL-ESTATE; DEPOSIT INSURANCE; INVESTMENT AB We estimate quarterly return series from March 1984 through December 1989 for 10 classes of thrift assets using the statistical cost-accounting methodology of Hester and Zoellner (1966). We then use these return series to estimate mean-variance efficient frontiers for all thrifts, for thrifts that were well capitalized two years earlier and for thrifts that were insolvent two years earlier. Our results show that neither the asset restrictions existing before nor those in effect after passage of the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery and Enforcement Act of 1989 would have prevented thrifts from reaching most of the portfolios along the efficient frontier. The actual portfolio chosen by well-capitalized thrifts is close to the estimated efficient frontier, while the actual portfolio chosen by insolvent thrifts is located far from the frontier in the high-risk end of investment space. These findings, coupled with the high proportion of nontraditional assets in the actual portfolio chosen by insolvent thrifts, support the hypothesis that moral hazard induced thrifts to take on investments that were excessively risky from the deposit insurer's point of view. C1 FED HOUSING FINANCE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20006. RP COLE, RA (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. RI Cole, Rebel/C-4399-2008 OI Cole, Rebel/0000-0001-9830-662X NR 39 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 3 PU AMER REAL ESTATE URBAN ECONOMICS ASSOC PI BLOOMINGTON PA INDIANA UNIV, SCHOOL BUSINESS, RM 428, 1309 E TENTH ST, BLOOMINGTON, IN 47405 SN 0270-0484 J9 J AM REAL ESTATE URB PD SPR PY 1994 VL 22 IS 1 BP 95 EP 116 PG 22 WC Business, Finance; Planning & Development SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA NE681 UT WOS:A1994NE68100005 ER PT J AU ROSENGREN, ES SIMONS, K AF ROSENGREN, ES SIMONS, K TI FAILED BANK RESOLUTION AND THE COLLATERAL CRUNCH - THE ADVANTAGES OF ADOPTING TRANSFERABLE PUTS SO JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN REAL ESTATE AND URBAN ECONOMICS ASSOCIATION LA English DT Article ID CAPITAL REGULATION; RISK AB Current methods of failed bank resolution are unnecessarily expensive for tax-payers and impose substantial costs on borrowers at failed banks. This situation is the result of distorted incentives imbedded in the standard contract between the government and acquirers of failed banks, which result in more loan foreclosures than if the loan were held by a well-capitalized bank. This paper proposes a modification to the standard contract in the form of a transferable put, which would introduce market-based incentives to the disposition of failed bank assets. RP ROSENGREN, ES (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. NR 8 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 1 PU AMER REAL ESTATE URBAN ECONOMICS ASSOC PI BLOOMINGTON PA INDIANA UNIV, SCHOOL BUSINESS, RM 428, 1309 E TENTH ST, BLOOMINGTON, IN 47405 SN 0270-0484 J9 J AM REAL ESTATE URB PD SPR PY 1994 VL 22 IS 1 BP 135 EP 147 PG 13 WC Business, Finance; Planning & Development SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA NE681 UT WOS:A1994NE68100007 ER PT J AU RANDALL, RE AF RANDALL, RE TI SAFEGUARDING THE BANKING SYSTEM IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF FINANCIAL CYCLES - AN OVERVIEW SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article RP RANDALL, RE (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAR-APR PY 1994 BP 3 EP 14 PG 12 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NG438 UT WOS:A1994NG43800001 ER PT J AU MAYER, CJ SIMONS, KV AF MAYER, CJ SIMONS, KV TI A NEW LOOK AT REVERSE MORTGAGES - POTENTIAL MARKET AND INSTITUTIONAL CONSTRAINTS SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID CONSUMPTION; SAVINGS; INCOME; BEQUESTS RP MAYER, CJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. NR 17 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAR-APR PY 1994 BP 15 EP 26 PG 12 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NG438 UT WOS:A1994NG43800002 ER PT J AU FIELEKE, NS AF FIELEKE, NS TI INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL TRANSACTIONS - SHOULD THEY BE RESTRICTED SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article RP FIELEKE, NS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. NR 10 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAR-APR PY 1994 BP 27 EP 39 PG 13 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NG438 UT WOS:A1994NG43800003 ER PT J AU CARLINO, G VOITH, R CODY, B AF CARLINO, G VOITH, R CODY, B TI THE EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE-RATE AND RELATION PRODUCTIVITY CHANGES ON UNITED-STATES INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT AT THE STATE-LEVEL SO URBAN STUDIES LA English DT Article ID FOREIGN AB This paper considers the effects of a changing dollar on aggregate state output, and for the agricultural, manufacturing and all other (aggregate state output less agricultural and manufacturing) sectors for the contiguous 48 US states during the period 1972-89. After controlling for productivity differentials between the US and its major trading partners, the findings indicate that in the long run, states have more to fear from slow productivity growth than from fluctuations in the dollar. Holding differences between foreign and US productivity constant, real exchange rate movements have had small effects on most states' output growth (total and by sector). More important have been changes in foreign productivity growth relative to domestic productivity growth. RP CARLINO, G (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,10 INDEPENDENCE MALL,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 12 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 0 PU CARFAX PUBL CO PI ABINGDON PA PO BOX 25, ABINGDON, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND OX14 3UE SN 0042-0980 J9 URBAN STUD JI Urban Stud. PD MAR PY 1994 VL 31 IS 2 BP 219 EP 232 DI 10.1080/00420989420080211 PG 14 WC Environmental Studies; Urban Studies SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Urban Studies GA NC501 UT WOS:A1994NC50100003 ER PT J AU KRANE, SD AF KRANE, SD TI THE DISTINCTION BETWEEN INVENTORY HOLDING AND STOCKOUT COSTS - IMPLICATIONS FOR TARGET INVENTORIES, ASYMMETRIC ADJUSTMENT, AND THE EFFECT OF AGGREGATION ON PRODUCTION SMOOTHING SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID PRICE; BEHAVIOR; MODEL; UNCERTAINTY; HYPOTHESIS; MONOPOLY; DEMAND AB This paper shows that differences between the costs of holding inventories and the costs of incurring stockouts provide a convenient theoretical distinction between production-to-stock and production-to-order industries. Furthermore, differences in holding and stockout costs can cause a firm to replenish inventories following a positive demand surprise at a different speed than it reduces stocks following unexpectedly low sales. This asymmetric adjustment lessens the tendency for firm-specific production shocks to cancel out in aggregation, and can cause industry output to be more variable than industry sales even when representative firms exhibit production smoothing behavior. RP KRANE, SD (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 32 TC 16 Z9 17 U1 2 U2 8 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD FEB PY 1994 VL 35 IS 1 BP 117 EP 136 DI 10.2307/2527093 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA MW411 UT WOS:A1994MW41100006 ER PT J AU SIMON, DP AF SIMON, DP TI MARKUPS, QUANTITY RISK, AND BIDDING STRATEGIES AT TREASURY COUPON AUCTIONS SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE TREASURY AUCTIONS ID INFORMATION; MARKET; ASK AB This study uses intraday when-issued rate quotes to examine the rewards and risks of the Treasury coupon auctions for bidders who face different tradeoffs between the winner's curse and quantity risk. The data indicate that markups of auction average rates over bid when-issued rates at auction times average 3/8 basis point. I also find that when-issued rates react as strongly to bidding aggressiveness at auctions before the auction results are announced as they do afterward, and that quantity risk is as important as the winner's curse. RP SIMON, DP (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV MONETARY AFFAIRS,STOP 73,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 11 TC 19 Z9 19 U1 0 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0304-405X J9 J FINANC ECON JI J. Financ. Econ. PD FEB PY 1994 VL 35 IS 1 BP 43 EP 62 DI 10.1016/0304-405X(94)90017-5 PG 20 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA MR913 UT WOS:A1994MR91300002 ER PT J AU MOSER, JT AF MOSER, JT TI A NOTE ON THE CRASH AND PARTICIPATION IN STOCK INDEX FUTURES SO JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS LA English DT Note RP MOSER, JT (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL, USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU JOHN WILEY & SONS INC PI NEW YORK PA 605 THIRD AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10158-0012 SN 0270-7314 J9 J FUTURES MARKETS JI J. Futures Mark. PD FEB PY 1994 VL 14 IS 1 BP 117 EP 119 DI 10.1002/fut.3990140110 PG 3 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA MR502 UT WOS:A1994MR50200009 ER PT J AU ENGEL, C AF ENGEL, C TI CAN THE MARKOV SWITCHING MODEL FORECAST EXCHANGE-RATES SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID TIME-SERIES AB A Markov-switching model is fit for 18 exchange rates at quarterly frequencies. The model fits well in-sample for many exchange rates. By the mean-squared-error criterion, the Markov model does not generate superior forecasts to a random walk or the forward rate. There appears to be some evidence that the forecasts of the Markov model are superior at predicting the direction of change of the exchange rate. C1 NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. FED RES BANK,KANSAS CITY,KS. RP ENGEL, C (reprint author), UNIV WASHINGTON,DEPT ECON,SEATTLE,WA 98195, USA. NR 12 TC 114 Z9 117 U1 1 U2 8 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD FEB PY 1994 VL 36 IS 1-2 BP 151 EP 165 DI 10.1016/0022-1996(94)90062-0 PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA MZ492 UT WOS:A1994MZ49200008 ER PT J AU MORGAN, DP AF MORGAN, DP TI BANK CREDIT COMMITMENTS, CREDIT RATIONING, AND MONETARY-POLICY SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID COSTS RP MORGAN, DP (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK,RES DEPT,KANSAS CITY,KS, USA. NR 17 TC 10 Z9 10 U1 1 U2 5 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD FEB PY 1994 VL 26 IS 1 BP 87 EP 101 DI 10.2307/2078036 PG 15 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA MW313 UT WOS:A1994MW31300007 ER PT J AU MESTER, LJ AF MESTER, LJ TI FURTHER EVIDENCE CONCERNING EXPENSE PREFERENCE AND THE FED SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID FEDERAL-RESERVE-SYSTEM; BEHAVIOR; INPUTS RP MESTER, LJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,DEPT RES & STAT,PHILADELPHIA,PA, USA. NR 8 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 8 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD FEB PY 1994 VL 26 IS 1 BP 125 EP 145 DI 10.2307/2078038 PG 21 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA MW313 UT WOS:A1994MW31300009 ER PT J AU BREWER, E MONDSCHEAN, TH AF BREWER, E MONDSCHEAN, TH TI AN EMPIRICAL-TEST OF THE INCENTIVE EFFECTS OF DEPOSIT INSURANCE SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID STOCK; RETURNS; RISK C1 DE PAUL UNIV,CHICAGO,IL 60614. RP BREWER, E (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL, USA. NR 26 TC 38 Z9 40 U1 0 U2 1 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD FEB PY 1994 VL 26 IS 1 BP 146 EP 164 DI 10.2307/2078039 PG 19 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA MW313 UT WOS:A1994MW31300010 ER PT J AU CARROLL, CD AF CARROLL, CD TI HOW DOES FUTURE INCOME AFFECT CURRENT CONSUMPTION SO QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS; HYPOTHESIS AB This paper tests a straightforward implication of the basic Life Cycle model of consumption: that current consumption depends on expected lifetime income. The paper projects future income for a panel of households and finds that consumption is closely related to projected current income, but unrelated to predictable changes in income. However, future income uncertainty has an important effect: consumers facing greater income uncertainty consume less. The results are consistent with ''buffer-stock'' models of consumption like those of Deaton [1991] or Carroll [1992a, 1992b], where precautionary motives greatly reduce the willingness of prudent consumers to consume out of uncertain future income. RP CARROLL, CD (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 24 TC 104 Z9 106 U1 0 U2 14 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0033-5533 J9 Q J ECON JI Q. J. Econ. PD FEB PY 1994 VL 109 IS 1 BP 111 EP 147 DI 10.2307/2118430 PG 37 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA MX701 UT WOS:A1994MX70100005 ER PT B AU KENNICKELL, AB MCMANUS, DA AF KENNICKELL, AB MCMANUS, DA GP AMER STAT ASSOC TI Multiple imputation of the 1983 and 1989 waves of the SCF SO AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION 1994 PROCEEDINGS OF THE SECTION ON SURVEY RESEARCH METHODS, VOLS I AND II LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 49th Annual Meeting of the American-Association-for-Public-Opinion-Research CY MAY 11-15, 1994 CL DANVERS, MA SP Amer Assoc Public Opin Res DE IMPUTATION; PANELS; SCF C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC PI ALEXANDRIA PA 1429 DUKE ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 BN 1-883276-10-1 PY 1994 BP 523 EP 528 PG 6 WC Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Mathematics GA BD50X UT WOS:A1994BD50X00087 ER PT B AU FRIES, G WOODBURN, RL AF FRIES, G WOODBURN, RL GP AMER STAT ASSOC TI The challenges of preparing sensitive data for public release SO AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION 1994 PROCEEDINGS OF THE SECTION ON SURVEY RESEARCH METHODS, VOLS I AND II LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 49th Annual Meeting of the American-Association-for-Public-Opinion-Research CY MAY 11-15, 1994 CL DANVERS, MA SP Amer Assoc Public Opin Res DE DISCLOSURE; CONFIDENTIALITY; SURVEY OF CONSUMER FINANCES C1 FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20550. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC PI ALEXANDRIA PA 1429 DUKE ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 BN 1-883276-10-1 PY 1994 BP 1184 EP 1189 PG 6 WC Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Mathematics GA BD50X UT WOS:A1994BD50X00206 ER PT J AU STEVENS, GVG AF STEVENS, GVG TI MEASUREMENT ERROR IN THE CAPITAL STOCK AND ITS EFFECT ON THE INVESTMENT FUNCTION SO APPLIED ECONOMICS LA English DT Article AB Capital stock variables appearing in investment and other equations are almost always constructed by the 'perpetual inventory method'. A major problem with this method is that the initial real capital stock, K(0), that is implicitly a component of every measure of the capital stock, can rarely be measured with any degree of accuracy. It is shown that such measurement error can frequently lead to severe bias in the estimated coefficients of investment functions. This paper proposes a method to bypass this source of measurement error and illustrates its use with a practical application. RP STEVENS, GVG (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,DIV INT,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 10 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 2 U2 3 PU ROUTLEDGE PI LONDON PA 11 NEW FETTER LANE, LONDON, ENGLAND EC4P 4EE SN 0003-6846 J9 APPL ECON JI Appl. Econ. PD JAN PY 1994 VL 26 IS 1 BP 21 EP 26 DI 10.1080/00036849400000057 PG 6 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA MT620 UT WOS:A1994MT62000003 ER PT J AU CUMMINS, JG HASSETT, KA HUBBARD, RG AF CUMMINS, JG HASSETT, KA HUBBARD, RG TI A RECONSIDERATION OF INVESTMENT BEHAVIOR USING TAX REFORMS AS NATURAL EXPERIMENTS SO BROOKINGS PAPERS ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 58th Conference of the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity CY SEP 08-09, 1994 CL WASHINGTON, DC ID UNITED-STATES; PANEL DATA; POLICY; TAXATION; FINANCE; MODELS; LABOR C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP CUMMINS, JG (reprint author), COLUMBIA UNIV,NEW YORK,NY 10027, USA. NR 79 TC 17 Z9 17 U1 1 U2 7 PU BROOKINGS INST PI WASHINGTON PA 1775 MASSACHUSETTS AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20036 SN 0007-2303 J9 BROOKINGS PAP ECO AC JI Brook. Pap. Econ. Act. PY 1994 IS 2 BP 1 EP 74 PG 74 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QH336 UT WOS:A1994QH33600002 ER PT J AU ENGEN, EM GALE, WG SCHOLZ, JK AF ENGEN, EM GALE, WG SCHOLZ, JK TI DO SAVING INCENTIVES WORK SO BROOKINGS PAPERS ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY LA English DT Article ID INDIVIDUAL RETIREMENT ACCOUNTS; IRAS; HYPOTHESIS; PENSIONS; RETURNS C1 BROOKINGS INST,WASHINGTON,DC 20036. UNIV WISCONSIN,MADISON,WI 53706. RP ENGEN, EM (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD OF GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 84 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 1 U2 6 PU BROOKINGS INST PI WASHINGTON PA 1775 MASSACHUSETTS AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20036 SN 0007-2303 J9 BROOKINGS PAP ECO AC JI Brook. Pap. Econ. Act. PY 1994 IS 1 BP 85 EP 180 PG 96 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA PC352 UT WOS:A1994PC35200002 ER PT J AU OLINER, SD SICHEL, DE AF OLINER, SD SICHEL, DE TI COMPUTERS AND OUTPUT GROWTH REVISITED - HOW BIG IS THE PUZZLE SO BROOKINGS PAPERS ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 58th Conference of the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity CY SEP 08-09, 1994 CL WASHINGTON, DC ID PRODUCTIVITY PARADOX C1 BROOKINGS INST,WASHINGTON,DC 20036. RP OLINER, SD (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 52 TC 15 Z9 17 U1 1 U2 7 PU BROOKINGS INST PI WASHINGTON PA 1775 MASSACHUSETTS AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20036 SN 0007-2303 J9 BROOKINGS PAP ECO AC JI Brook. Pap. Econ. Act. PY 1994 IS 2 BP 273 EP 334 PG 62 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA QH336 UT WOS:A1994QH33600006 ER PT S AU CARROLL, CD WEIL, DN AF CARROLL, CD WEIL, DN BE Meltzer, AH Plosser, CI TI SAVING AND GROWTH - A REINTERPRETATION SO CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY, VOL 40, JUNE 1994 SE CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy CY APR, 1993 CL UNIV ROCHESTER, ROCHESTER, NY SP NATL SCI FDN HO UNIV ROCHESTER C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 0 TC 110 Z9 111 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL B V PI AMSTERDAM PA SARA BURGERHARTSTRAAT 25, PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-2231 J9 CARN ROCH CONF SERIE PY 1994 VL 40 BP 133 EP 192 DI 10.1016/0167-2231(94)90006-X PG 60 WC Public Administration SC Public Administration GA BB79T UT WOS:A1994BB79T00005 ER PT B AU Truman, EM AF Truman, EM BE Zulu, JB McCarthy, IS Almuina, S Sensenbrenner, G TI Statement of the United States Federal Reserve System SO CENTRAL BANKING TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TO COUNTRIES IN TRANSITION LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Joint Meeting on Central Banking Technical Assistance CY APR 13-15, 1994 CL ST PETERSBURG, RUSSIA SP Int Monetary Fund, Monetary & Exchange Affairs Dev, Banks Int Settlements, Cent Bank Russian Federat C1 Fed Reserve Syst US, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU INT MONETARY FUND PI WASHINGTON PA 700 19TH ST NW SUITE C-100, WASHINGTON, DC 20431 USA BN 1-55775-446-2 PY 1994 BP 97 EP 98 PG 2 WC Business, Finance; International Relations SC Business & Economics; International Relations GA BL43J UT WOS:000075492200035 ER PT B AU Truman, EM AF Truman, EM BE Zulu, JB McCarthy, IS Almuina, S Sensenbrenner, G TI Central banking technical assistance to countries in transition - Closing remarks SO CENTRAL BANKING TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TO COUNTRIES IN TRANSITION LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Joint Meeting on Central Banking Technical Assistance CY APR 13-15, 1994 CL ST PETERSBURG, RUSSIA SP Int Monetary Fund, Monetary & Exchange Affairs Dev, Banks Int Settlements, Cent Bank Russian Federat C1 Fed Reserve Syst US, Div Internal Finance, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU INT MONETARY FUND PI WASHINGTON PA 700 19TH ST NW SUITE C-100, WASHINGTON, DC 20431 USA BN 1-55775-446-2 PY 1994 BP 138 EP 143 PG 6 WC Business, Finance; International Relations SC Business & Economics; International Relations GA BL43J UT WOS:000075492200044 ER PT J AU KOENIG, EF EMERY, KM AF KOENIG, EF EMERY, KM TI WHY THE COMPOSITE INDEX OF LEADING INDICATORS DOES NOT LEAD SO CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Western-Economic-Association-International 67th Annual Conference CY JUL 09-13, 1992 CL SAN FRANCISCO, CA SP W ECON ASSOC INT ID BUSINESS-CYCLE AB This paper assesses the real-time performance of the Commerce Department's composite index of leading indicators. The authors find that the composite leading index has failed to provide reliable advance warning of cyclical turning points. One reason for this failure is that the leading index's transition from expansion to contraction generally is not very sharp. Consequently, discerning real-time cyclical peaks in the index is difficult. Transitions from contraction to expansion on average are sharp. However, cyclical troughs in the leading index often precede cyclical troughs in the economy by only a few months. Thus, even timely recognition of troughs in the leading index fails to provide advance warning of turnarounds in the general level of economic activity. RP KOENIG, EF (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,RES DEPT,2200 N PEARL ST,DALLAS,TX 75201, USA. NR 12 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 1 U2 3 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 SN 0735-0007 J9 CONTEMP ECON POLICY JI Contemp. Econ. Policy PD JAN PY 1994 VL 12 IS 1 BP 52 EP 66 PG 15 WC Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA NE405 UT WOS:A1994NE40500006 ER PT J AU ORPHANIDES, A ZERVOS, D AF ORPHANIDES, A ZERVOS, D TI OPTIMAL CONSUMPTION DYNAMICS WITH NON-CONCAVE HABIT-FORMING UTILITY SO ECONOMICS LETTERS LA English DT Article ID OPTIMAL-GROWTH; MODEL; PREFERENCES AB We study the dynamics of optimal consumption when preferences exhibit habit formation without imposing global concavity conditions on utility. We provide a complete characterization of the dynamics despite possible multiplicities in optimal policies and steady states. RP ORPHANIDES, A (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV MONETARY AFFAIRS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 10 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 1 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0165-1765 J9 ECON LETT JI Econ. Lett. PY 1994 VL 44 IS 1-2 BP 67 EP 72 DI 10.1016/0165-1765(93)00296-Z PG 6 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NG453 UT WOS:A1994NG45300010 ER PT J AU KENNEDY, JE AF KENNEDY, JE TI THE INFORMATION IN-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR FORECASTING RELATED ECONOMIC AGGREGATES SO ECONOMICS LETTERS LA English DT Article AB Time-series techniques are used to assess whether diffusion indexes add unique information to forecasts of some key economic variables. The results indicate that diffusion indexes for industrial production and employment add significantly to the explanation of related aggregates. RP KENNEDY, JE (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,MAIL STOP 80,20TH & C ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 7 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0165-1765 J9 ECON LETT JI Econ. Lett. PY 1994 VL 44 IS 1-2 BP 113 EP 117 DI 10.1016/0165-1765(93)00331-H PG 5 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NG453 UT WOS:A1994NG45300019 ER PT J AU BULL, N HASSETT, KA METCALF, GE AF BULL, N HASSETT, KA METCALF, GE TI WHO PAYS BROAD-BASED ENERGY TAXES - COMPUTING LIFETIME AND REGIONAL INCIDENCE SO ENERGY JOURNAL LA English DT Article AB This paper measures the incidence of energy taxes using a lifetime framework to study both a Btu tax and a carbon tax. It takes into account two key facts. First, because energy taxes have different incidence effects across the life cycle, it is important to measure the burden of taxes in terms of lifetime incidence, not just their burden in a given year. To take account of lifetime incidence, we introduce an estimation methodology for lifetime-correction as well as showing current consumption measures. Second, energy taxes have a total effect that combines both direct and indirect effects: in addition to directly increasing the price of energy goods, energy taxes also indirectly increase the price of all other goods in proportion to the energy used to produce them. We provide incidence estimates by income group and by geographical region. C1 TUFTS UNIV,BOSTON,MA 02111. NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. RP BULL, N (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 25 TC 15 Z9 15 U1 0 U2 3 PU INT ASSOC ENERGY ECONOMICS PI CLEVAND PA 28790 CHAGRIN BLVD, STE 210, CLEVAND, OH 44122 SN 0195-6574 J9 ENERGY J JI Energy J. PY 1994 VL 15 IS 3 BP 145 EP 164 PG 20 WC Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Studies SC Business & Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences & Ecology GA PH549 UT WOS:A1994PH54900008 ER PT J AU Brown, SPA Huntington, HG AF Brown, Stephen P. A. Huntington, Hillard G. TI LDC Cooperation in World Oil Conservation SO ENERGY JOURNAL LA English DT Article ID CO2 EMISSIONS; COSTS AB Environmental concerns are leading many industrialized countries to consider measures which would reduce their consumption of oil, as well as other energy sources. The reluctance of the developing countries to join in these conservation efforts will reduce the policy's effectiveness. This paper explores the conditions under which the exclusion of important oil consumers (like developing countries) would weaken unilateral OECD actions to conserve oil. Oil conservation undertaken unilaterally by the OECD can lead to lower world oil prices, and offsetting increases in oil consumption elsewhere. We provide estimates of these offsetting effects and how they influence the costs of participating in the policy. We also examine the effect of adding and excluding countries to a coordinated policy of oil conservation. C1 [Brown, Stephen P. A.] Fed Reserve Bank Dallas, Res Dept, Dallas, TX 75265 USA. [Huntington, Hillard G.] Stanford Univ, Terman Engn Ctr, Energy Modeling Forum, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. RP Brown, SPA (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Dallas, Res Dept, POB 655906, Dallas, TX 75265 USA. NR 20 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 2 PU INT ASSOC ENERGY ECONOMICS PI CLEVELAND PA 28790 CHAGRIN BLVD, STE 210, CLEVELAND, OH 44122 USA SN 0195-6574 J9 ENERG J JI Energy J. PY 1994 SI SI BP 310 EP 328 PG 19 WC Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Studies SC Business & Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences & Ecology GA V08JG UT WOS:000207324500017 ER PT B AU MULLINS, DW AF MULLINS, DW BE Wijnholds, JOD Eijffinger, SCW Hoogduin, LH TI A FRAMEWORK FOR MONETARY STABILITY - A POLICY MAKER PERSPECTIVE SO FRAMEWORK FOR MONETARY STABILITY SE FINANCIAL AND MONETARY POLICY STUDIES LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT International Conference on A Framework for Monetary Stability CY OCT 20-23, 1993 CL AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SP DE NEDERLANDSCHE BANK, TILBURG UNIV, CENTER ECON RES C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS BN 0-7923-2667-9 J9 FINAN MON P PY 1994 VL 27 BP 5 EP 15 PG 11 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA BB39Z UT WOS:A1994BB39Z00001 ER PT J AU CHIRINKO, RS FAZZARI, SM AF CHIRINKO, RS FAZZARI, SM TI ECONOMIC-FLUCTUATIONS, MARKET POWER, AND RETURNS TO SCALE - EVIDENCE FROM FIRM-LEVEL DATA SO JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS LA English DT Article ID STRUCTURE-PERFORMANCE RELATIONSHIP; TOBIN-Q; INDUSTRIAL-ECONOMICS; MARGINAL COST; PRICE; BUSINESS; PROFITS; MODEL AB Recent research on aggregate fluctuations, coupled with ongoing work in industrial organization, has renewed interest in the existence, magnitude, and cyclical pattern of market power and the extent of increasing returns to scale. By exploiting restrictions from dynamic theory and information from financial markets, we present a framework for generating quantitative evidence on market power and returns to scale. Tailoring the econometric model to firm-level panel data, we calculate the percentage differential between price and marginal cost (the Lerner index) in terms of the parameters from the econometric system. Results for firms in eleven industries indicate that there is a great deal of heterogeneity in the extent of market power. Industries with significantly positive Lerner indices tend to have substantial increasing returns in the production technology. We find that there is only a modest relation between our estimated Lerner indices and traditional measures of market power and that, when market power varies temporally, it is usually procyclical. Thus, variations in the markup of price over marginal cost may help dampen aggregate economic fluctuations. C1 FED RESERVE BANK KANSAS CITY,ECON RES DEPT,KANSAS CITY,MO 64198. WASHINGTON UNIV,DEPT ECON,ST LOUIS,MO 63130. RP CHIRINKO, RS (reprint author), UNIV ILLINOIS,DEPT ECON,111 COMMERCE W,1206 S 6TH ST,CHAMPAIGN,IL 61820, USA. NR 59 TC 34 Z9 34 U1 0 U2 6 PU JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD PI W SUSSEX PA BAFFINS LANE CHICHESTER, W SUSSEX, ENGLAND PO19 1UD SN 0883-7252 J9 J APPL ECONOM JI J. Appl. Econom. PD JAN-MAR PY 1994 VL 9 IS 1 BP 47 EP 69 DI 10.1002/jae.3950090105 PG 23 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA MX829 UT WOS:A1994MX82900004 ER PT J AU YUENGERT, AM AF YUENGERT, AM TI IMMIGRANT EARNINGS, RELATIVE TO WHAT - THE IMPORTANCE OF EARNINGS FUNCTION SPECIFICATION AND COMPARISON POINTS SO JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS LA English DT Article ID SELF-SELECTION; QUALITY; RETURNS AB Immigrant relative earnings estimates are sensitive to the choice of comparison point and the specification of earnings. Non-sample mean comparisons (Borjas, 1985) understate relative earnings. Simple earnings specifications (linear education, quadratic experience) overstate relative earnings for both poorly and well-educated immigrants. Specifications which ignore omitted variables understate the relative earnings of poorly educated immigrants and overstate those of well-educated ones. Although measures of assimilation and changes in immigrant quality are insensitive to earnings specification, they indicate strong earnings growth for post-1964 immigrants, an overall decrease in immigrant quality, and an increase in Mexican immigrant quality. RP YUENGERT, AM (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,FINANCIAL RES DEPT,33 LIBERTY ST,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 9 TC 18 Z9 18 U1 0 U2 4 PU JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD PI W SUSSEX PA BAFFINS LANE CHICHESTER, W SUSSEX, ENGLAND PO19 1UD SN 0883-7252 J9 J APPL ECONOM JI J. Appl. Econom. PD JAN-MAR PY 1994 VL 9 IS 1 BP 71 EP 90 DI 10.1002/jae.3950090106 PG 20 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA MX829 UT WOS:A1994MX82900005 ER PT J AU SIMON, DP AF SIMON, DP TI FURTHER EVIDENCE ON SEGMENTATION IN THE TREASURY BILL MARKET SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE TREASURY BILLS; MARKET SEGMENTATION AB This paper shows that differences in supplies of 13- and 12-week Treasury bills have statistically significant and economically meaningful effects on their yield differentials from January 1985 through October 1991, controlling for the general slope of the Treasury bill yield curve, the tendency of bills maturing at month-ends to have lower yields and the tendency of bills whose supply is augmented by cash management bills to have higher yields. The finding that market participants do not arbitrage away yield differentials that owe to differences in supplies indicates that demand curves for individual bills are downward sloping and that segmentation in the Treasury bill market is more pervasive than previously documented. RP SIMON, DP (reprint author), DIV MONETARY AFFAIRS,BOARD GOVERNORS FED RESERVE SYST,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 9 TC 15 Z9 15 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD JAN PY 1994 VL 18 IS 1 BP 139 EP 151 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(94)00082-4 PG 13 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA NA910 UT WOS:A1994NA91000007 ER PT J AU PERISTIANI, S AF PERISTIANI, S TI AN EMPIRICAL-INVESTIGATION OF THE DETERMINANTS OF DISCOUNT WINDOW BORROWING - A DISAGGREGATE ANALYSIS SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE DISCOUNT WINDOW; BORROWED RESERVES; WEEKLY REPORTING BANKS ID MARKET; MODEL AB This article investigates the individual demand for discount window credit by employing a cross-sectional time-series database of commercial banks. The analysis employs a simple linear model that accounts for the latent nature of individual borrowing. Our findings reveal that borrowing is positively correlated with the federal funds-discount rate spread. Large borrowers are shown to have a stronger correlation between borrowing and the federal funds spread. In addition, we find that the nonprice mechanism is more binding on large banks that avoid contiguous use of the discount facility or defer their visit in the expectation that interest rates will increase in the near future. RP PERISTIANI, S (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,DEP RES,MAIN 922,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 18 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 1 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD JAN PY 1994 VL 18 IS 1 BP 183 EP 197 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(94)00085-9 PG 15 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA NA910 UT WOS:A1994NA91000010 ER PT J AU BOLDIN, MD AF BOLDIN, MD TI DATING TURNING-POINTS IN THE BUSINESS-CYCLE SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS LA English DT Article ID ECONOMIC TIME-SERIES AB I review and evaluate procedures for dating peaks and troughs of the business cycle. Five different methods are judged on their historical performance, ease of replication, clarity, timeliness, flexibility, and the validity of underlying assumptions. In addition, I examine the 1990-92 period in detail where two newer dating methods are especially insightful because they use statistically rigorous methods to derive turning point probabilities, and, thereby, the inherent uncertainty in the data can be recognized. I also conclude that additional research is needed on this topic to resolve some important controversies about business-cycle characteristics. RP BOLDIN, MD (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 42 TC 37 Z9 41 U1 0 U2 7 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0021-9398 J9 J BUS JI J. Bus. PD JAN PY 1994 VL 67 IS 1 BP 97 EP 131 DI 10.1086/296625 PG 35 WC Business SC Business & Economics GA MT217 UT WOS:A1994MT21700004 ER PT B AU BRYAN, MF CECCHETTI, SG AF BRYAN, MF CECCHETTI, SG BE Mankiw, NG TI MEASURING CORE INFLATION SO MONETARY POLICY SE STUDIES IN BUSINESS CYCLES LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Monetary Policy CY JAN, 1993 CL ISLAMORADA, FL SP NATL BUR ECON RES C1 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,RES DEPT,CLEVELAND,OH 44101. NR 0 TC 39 Z9 39 U1 2 U2 2 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5801 S ELLIS AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 BN 0-226-50308-9 J9 STUD BUS CYCLES PY 1994 VL 29 BP 195 EP 215 PG 21 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA BC86G UT WOS:A1994BC86G00006 ER PT J AU SYRON, RF AF SYRON, RF TI THE FED MUST CONTINUE TO SUPERVISE BANKS SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Boston-Economic-Club Meeting CY JAN 26, 1994 CL BOSTON, MA SP BOSTON ECON CLUB RP SYRON, RF (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA, USA. NR 0 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JAN-FEB PY 1994 BP 3 EP 8 PG 6 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NB072 UT WOS:A1994NB07200001 ER PT J AU KOPCKE, RW HOWREY, MM AF KOPCKE, RW HOWREY, MM TI A PANEL STUDY OF INVESTMENT - SALES, CASH FLOW, AND THE COST OF CAPITAL, AND LEVERAGE SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID TESTS RP KOPCKE, RW (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA, USA. NR 28 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 2 U2 5 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JAN-FEB PY 1994 BP 9 EP 30 PG 22 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NB072 UT WOS:A1994NB07200002 ER PT J AU TANNENWALD, R AF TANNENWALD, R TI MASSACHUSETTS TAX COMPETITIVENESS SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID LOCATION DECISIONS; DIFFERENTIALS; EMPLOYMENT RP TANNENWALD, R (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA, USA. NR 50 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JAN-FEB PY 1994 BP 31 EP 49 PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NB072 UT WOS:A1994NB07200003 ER PT J AU BRADBURY, KL AF BRADBURY, KL TI SCHOOL-DISTRICT SPENDING AND STATE AID - WHY DISPARITIES PERSIST SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID GRANTS-IN-AID; PUBLIC-GOODS; DEMAND; EDUCATION; CHOICE RP BRADBURY, KL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA, USA. NR 39 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 2 U2 3 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JAN-FEB PY 1994 BP 50 EP 68 PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NB072 UT WOS:A1994NB07200004 ER PT J AU STEVENS, GVG AF STEVENS, GVG TI INTERNAL FUNDS AND THE INVESTMENT FUNCTION SO SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL LA English DT Article RP STEVENS, GVG (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC, USA. NR 28 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 1 PU UNIV NORTH CAROLINA PI CHAPEL HILL PA SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, CHAPEL HILL, NC 27514 SN 0038-4038 J9 SOUTHERN ECON J JI South. Econ. J. PD JAN PY 1994 VL 60 IS 3 BP 551 EP 563 DI 10.2307/1060566 PG 13 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA MR671 UT WOS:A1994MR67100001 ER PT J AU BARKEMA, A AF BARKEMA, A TI REACHING CONSUMERS IN THE 21ST-CENTURY - THE SHORT WAY AROUND THE BARN SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Annual Meeting of the American-Agricultural-Economics-Association CY AUG 01-04, 1993 CL ORLANDO, FL SP AMER AGR ECON ASSOC RP BARKEMA, A (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK,KANSAS CITY,KS, USA. NR 9 TC 16 Z9 18 U1 2 U2 4 PU AMER AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS ASSOC PI AMES PA 1110 BUCKEYE AVE, AMES, IA 50010-8063 SN 0002-9092 J9 AM J AGR ECON JI Am. J. Agr. Econ. PD DEC PY 1993 VL 75 IS 5 BP 1126 EP 1131 DI 10.2307/1243437 PG 6 WC Agricultural Economics & Policy; Economics SC Agriculture; Business & Economics GA MW710 UT WOS:A1993MW71000009 ER PT J AU FINDEIS, JS LUNDEEN, AA BALLENGER, N LEMIEUX, C AF FINDEIS, JS LUNDEEN, AA BALLENGER, N LEMIEUX, C TI PASSAGES IN AN AGRICULTURAL-ECONOMICS CAREER SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 PENN STATE UNIV,UNIV PK,PA 16802. S DAKOTA STATE UNIV,BROOKINGS,SD 57007. USDA,ECON RES SERV,WASHINGTON,DC 20250. FED RESERVE BANK KANSAS CITY,KANSAS CITY,KS. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS ASSOC PI AMES PA 1110 BUCKEYE AVE, AMES, IA 50010-8063 SN 0002-9092 J9 AM J AGR ECON JI Am. J. Agr. Econ. PD DEC PY 1993 VL 75 IS 5 BP 1287 EP 1287 PG 1 WC Agricultural Economics & Policy; Economics SC Agriculture; Business & Economics GA MW710 UT WOS:A1993MW71000050 ER PT J AU LEMIEUX, C AF LEMIEUX, C TI HOW LOAN LOSS RESERVE ADEQUACY CAN AFFECT THE IMPLEMENTATION OF PROMPT CORRECTIVE ACTION AT MIDWEST AGRICULTURAL BANKS SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 FED RESERVE BANK KANSAS CITY,KANSAS CITY,KS. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS ASSOC PI AMES PA 1110 BUCKEYE AVE, AMES, IA 50010-8063 SN 0002-9092 J9 AM J AGR ECON JI Am. J. Agr. Econ. PD DEC PY 1993 VL 75 IS 5 BP 1297 EP 1297 PG 1 WC Agricultural Economics & Policy; Economics SC Agriculture; Business & Economics GA MW710 UT WOS:A1993MW71000097 ER PT J AU JORDAN, JL AF JORDAN, JL TI GETTING THE RULES RIGHT SO CATO JOURNAL LA English DT Note RP JORDAN, JL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44114, USA. NR 6 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU CATO INSTITUTE PI WASHINGTON PA 1000 MASSACHUSETTS AVE., NW #6, WASHINGTON, DC 20001-5403 SN 0273-3072 J9 CATO J JI Cato J. PD WIN PY 1993 VL 12 IS 3 BP 585 EP 591 PG 7 WC Public Administration SC Public Administration GA NC634 UT WOS:A1993NC63400006 ER PT J AU ANGELL, WD AF ANGELL, WD TI A GOLD-BASED MONETARY-POLICY FOR RUSSIA SO CATO JOURNAL LA English DT Note RP ANGELL, WD (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 0 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU CATO INSTITUTE PI WASHINGTON PA 1000 MASSACHUSETTS AVE., NW #6, WASHINGTON, DC 20001-5403 SN 0273-3072 J9 CATO J JI Cato J. PD WIN PY 1993 VL 12 IS 3 BP 677 EP 682 PG 6 WC Public Administration SC Public Administration GA NC634 UT WOS:A1993NC63400015 ER PT J AU REINHART, CM REINHART, VR AF REINHART, CM REINHART, VR TI OUTPUT FLUCTUATIONS AND MONETARY SHOCKS IN COLOMBIA - REPLY SO INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND STAFF PAPERS LA English DT Note C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,BOARD DIRECTORS,BANKING & MONEY MARKET ANAL SECT,WASHINGTON,DC. RP REINHART, CM (reprint author), INT MONETARY FUND,RES DEPT,WASHINGTON,DC 20431, USA. RI Reinhart, Carmen/B-6997-2008 NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU INT MONETARY FUND PI WASHINGTON PA 700 19TH ST, NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20431 SN 0020-8027 J9 INT MONET FUND S PAP JI Int. Monet. Fund Staff Pap. PD DEC PY 1993 VL 40 IS 4 BP 876 EP 877 PG 2 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA MT106 UT WOS:A1993MT10600010 ER PT J AU LITTLE, JS AF LITTLE, JS TI ROUTE 128 - LESSONS FROM BOSTON HIGH-TECH COMMUNITY - ROSEGRANT,S, LAMPE,D SO ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Book Review RP LITTLE, JS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 1 U2 1 PU NATL ACAD SCIENCES PI WASHINGTON PA 2101 CONSTITUTION AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20418 SN 0748-5492 J9 ISSUES SCI TECHNOL JI Issues Sci. Technol. PD WIN PY 1993 VL 9 IS 2 BP 96 EP 99 PG 4 WC Engineering, Multidisciplinary; Engineering, Industrial; Multidisciplinary Sciences; Social Issues SC Engineering; Science & Technology - Other Topics; Social Issues GA KG356 UT WOS:A1993KG35600039 ER PT J AU SETH, R QUIJANO, AM AF SETH, R QUIJANO, AM TI GROWTH IN JAPANESE LENDING AND DIRECT-INVESTMENT IN THE UNITED-STATES - ARE THEY RELATED SO JAPAN AND THE WORLD ECONOMY LA English DT Article DE DIRECT INVESTMENT; LOANS; JAPANESE BANKS AB Studies on the growth of foreign banks in the United States ascribe foreign banks' operations, in particular those of Japanese banks, to growth in foreign trade and direct investment in this country. We find, however, that data do not support this hypothesis. Local borrowing by affiliates of Japanese firms does not account for the majority of Japanese lending in the United States. Rather, US-owned firms have increasingly become customers of Japanese banks in the United States. Given the current credit tightening by capital-constrained Japanese banks, it is particularly important to establish who their customers really are. C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,INT FINANCE DEPT,NEW YORK,NY 10045. RP SETH, R (reprint author), BANK INT SETTLEMENTS,CH-4002 BASEL,SWITZERLAND. NR 7 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0922-1425 J9 JPN WORLD ECON JI Jpn. World Econ. PD DEC PY 1993 VL 5 IS 4 BP 363 EP 372 DI 10.1016/0922-1425(93)90004-N PG 10 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA NA975 UT WOS:A1993NA97500004 ER PT J AU RITCHKEN, P THOMSON, JB DEGENNARO, RP LI, AL AF RITCHKEN, P THOMSON, JB DEGENNARO, RP LI, AL TI ON FLEXIBILITY, CAPITAL STRUCTURE AND INVESTMENT DECISIONS FOR THE INSURED BANK SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE FLEXIBILITY; CHARTER; DEPOSIT INSURANCE ID DEPOSIT INSURANCE; RISK AB Most models of deposit insurance assume that the volatility of a bank's assets is exogenously provided. Although this framework allows the impact of volatility on bankruptcy costs and deposit insurance subsidies to be explored, it is static and does not incorporate the fact that equityholders can respond to market events by adjusting previous investment and leverage decisions. This paper presents a dynamic model of a bank that allows for such behavior. The flexibility of being able to respond dynamically to market information has value to equity-holders. The impact and value of this flexibility option are explored under a regime in which flat-rate deposit insurance is provided. C1 FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,RES DEPT,POB 6387,CLEVELAND,OH 44101. SALOMON BROTHERS,NEW YORK,NY 10048. CASE WESTERN RESERVE UNIV,WEATHERHEAD SCH MANAGEMENT,CLEVELAND,OH 44106. UNIV TENNESSEE,DEPT FINANCE,KNOXVILLE,TN 37996. NR 12 TC 12 Z9 12 U1 1 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD DEC PY 1993 VL 17 IS 6 BP 1133 EP 1146 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(93)90017-8 PG 14 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA ML271 UT WOS:A1993ML27100004 ER PT J AU SMITH, BD AF SMITH, BD TI INTRODUCTION TO DYNAMIC MACROECONOMIC THEORY - AN OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS APPROACH - MCCANDLESS,G, WALLACE,N SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC EDUCATION LA English DT Book Review ID FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION; EQUILIBRIUM C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. RP SMITH, BD (reprint author), CORNELL UNIV,ITHACA,NY 14853, USA. NR 22 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 4 U2 5 PU HELDREF PUBLICATIONS PI WASHINGTON PA 1319 EIGHTEENTH ST NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20036-1802 SN 0022-0485 J9 J ECON EDUC JI J. Econ. Educ. PD WIN PY 1993 VL 24 IS 1 BP 85 EP 91 DI 10.2307/1183326 PG 7 WC Economics; Education & Educational Research SC Business & Economics; Education & Educational Research GA KM826 UT WOS:A1993KM82600009 ER PT J AU WHEELOCK, DC AF WHEELOCK, DC TI GOVERNMENT POLICY AND BANKING MARKET-STRUCTURE IN THE 1920S SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY LA English DT Article ID DEPOSIT INSURANCE AB This article investigates interstate differences in banking market structure during the 1920s. It finds that the number of banks per capita and the ratio of state-chartered to federally chartered banks were highest in states with deposit insurance systems, low minimum capital requirements, and branching restrictions. In the 1920s banking consolidation was greatest where falling incomes caused high failure rates, in states with deposit insurance, and where branching increased. After 1920, the high failure rate of insured state banks caused the ratio of state-chartered to federally chartered banks to decline relatively more in states with insurance systems. RP WHEELOCK, DC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ST LOUIS,POB 442,ST LOUIS,MO 63166, USA. RI Wheelock, David/I-5757-2016 OI Wheelock, David/0000-0002-2702-8164 NR 36 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 1 PU CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS PI NEW YORK PA 40 WEST 20TH STREET, NEW YORK, NY 10011-4211 SN 0022-0507 J9 J ECON HIST JI J. Econ. Hist. PD DEC PY 1993 VL 53 IS 4 BP 857 EP 879 PG 23 WC Economics; History; History Of Social Sciences SC Business & Economics; History; Social Sciences - Other Topics GA MN366 UT WOS:A1993MN36600006 ER PT J AU CHIRINKO, RS AF CHIRINKO, RS TI BUSINESS FIXED INVESTMENT SPENDING - MODELING STRATEGIES, EMPIRICAL RESULTS, AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE LA English DT Article ID DYNAMIC FACTOR DEMANDS; RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS; UNITED-STATES; CORPORATE-INVESTMENT; JAPANESE FIRMS; CAPITAL GOODS; PANEL DATA; TAX RATES; UNCERTAINTY; AGGREGATE AB The author would like to acknowledge the critical and extensive comments from Barry Bosworth, Robert Eisner, Steven Fazzari, Robert Gordon, Brian Henry, Se-Jik Kim, Knut Mork, and several anonymous referees, and helpful conversations with and comments from Fischer Black, Richard Blundell, George von Furstenberg, Craig Hakkio, James Heckman, Patrick Honohan, Anil Kashyap, Mervyn King, Robert Lucas, Laurence Lynn, Robert Michael, Harvey Rosen, Gordon Sellon, Lawrence Summers, John Taylor, and John Weicher. Hans-Werner Sinn and his colleagues at the Center for Economic Studies (University of Munich) and colleagues at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City are to be thanked for providing most hospitable environments in which to complete this study. All errors, omissions, and conclusions remain the sole responsibility of the author. The views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City nor of the Federal Reserve System. C1 FED RESERVE BANK KANSAS CITY,KANSAS CITY,KS. RP CHIRINKO, RS (reprint author), UNIV ILLINOIS,CHICAGO,IL 60680, USA. NR 139 TC 273 Z9 280 U1 10 U2 41 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0022-0515 J9 J ECON LIT JI J. Econ. Lit. PD DEC PY 1993 VL 31 IS 4 BP 1875 EP 1911 PG 37 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA MM186 UT WOS:A1993MM18600002 ER PT J AU CHARI, VV KEHOE, PJ AF CHARI, VV KEHOE, PJ TI SUSTAINABLE PLANS AND DEBT SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article ID TIME CONSISTENCY; MONETARY-POLICY; REPEATED GAMES; SOVEREIGN DEBT; PUBLIC DEBT; REPUTATION; REPUDIATION; EQUILIBRIUM; INFORMATION; DISCRETION C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55401. UNIV PENN,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. RP CHARI, VV (reprint author), NORTHWESTERN UNIV,EVANSTON,IL 60208, USA. NR 27 TC 22 Z9 22 U1 0 U2 1 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0022-0531 J9 J ECON THEORY JI J. Econ. Theory PD DEC PY 1993 VL 61 IS 2 BP 230 EP 261 DI 10.1006/jeth.1993.1068 PG 32 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA MN988 UT WOS:A1993MN98800003 ER PT J AU GLOSTEN, LR JAGANNATHAN, R RUNKLE, DE AF GLOSTEN, LR JAGANNATHAN, R RUNKLE, DE TI ON THE RELATION BETWEEN THE EXPECTED VALUE AND THE VOLATILITY OF THE NOMINAL EXCESS RETURN ON STOCKS SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Article ID CONDITIONAL HETEROSKEDASTICITY; ASSET RETURNS; MODEL; RISK; INFLATION; EXCHANGE; VARIANCE; MARKET; TESTS AB We find support for a negative relation between conditional expected monthly return and conditional variance of monthly return, using a GARCH-M model modified by allowing (1) seasonal patterns in volatility, (2) positive and negative innovations to returns having different impacts on conditional volatility, and (3) nominal interest rates to predict conditional variance. Using the modified GARCH-M model, we also show that monthly conditional volatility may not be as persistent as was thought. Positive unanticipated returns appear to result in a downward revision of the conditional volatility whereas negative unanticipated returns result in an upward revision of conditional volatility. C1 UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. FED RESERVE BANK,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. RP GLOSTEN, LR (reprint author), COLUMBIA UNIV,NEW YORK,NY 10027, USA. NR 37 TC 1663 Z9 1747 U1 12 U2 62 PU AMER FINANCE ASSN PI NEW YORK PA 44 WEST FOURTH ST, STE 9-190, NEW YORK, NY 10012 SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD DEC PY 1993 VL 48 IS 5 BP 1779 EP 1801 DI 10.2307/2329067 PG 23 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA MP991 UT WOS:A1993MP99100008 ER PT J AU WALL, LD AF WALL, LD TI THE SWAPS MARKET - MARSHALL,JF, KAPNER,KR SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Book Review RP WALL, LD (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,ATLANTA,GA, USA. NR 8 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 4 PU AMER FINANCE ASSN PI NEW YORK PA 44 WEST FOURTH ST, STE 9-190, NEW YORK, NY 10012 SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD DEC PY 1993 VL 48 IS 5 BP 2038 EP 2041 DI 10.2307/2329083 PG 4 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA MP991 UT WOS:A1993MP99100024 ER PT J AU ERICSSON, NR AF ERICSSON, NR TI ON THE LIMITATIONS OF COMPARING MEAN-SQUARE FORECAST ERRORS - CLARIFICATIONS AND EXTENSIONS SO JOURNAL OF FORECASTING LA English DT Editorial Material ID COINTEGRATION; MODELS RP ERICSSON, NR (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,DIV INT FINANCE,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 9 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 0 PU JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD PI W SUSSEX PA BAFFINS LANE CHICHESTER, W SUSSEX, ENGLAND PO19 1UD SN 0277-6693 J9 J FORECASTING JI J. Forecast. PD DEC PY 1993 VL 12 IS 8 BP 644 EP 651 DI 10.1002/for.3980120806 PG 8 WC Economics; Management SC Business & Economics GA ML254 UT WOS:A1993ML25400005 ER PT J AU MCNEES, SK AF MCNEES, SK TI ON THE LIMITATIONS OF COMPARING MEAN-SQUARE FORECAST ERRORS - COMMENT SO JOURNAL OF FORECASTING LA English DT Editorial Material RP MCNEES, SK (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD PI W SUSSEX PA BAFFINS LANE CHICHESTER, W SUSSEX, ENGLAND PO19 1UD SN 0277-6693 J9 J FORECASTING JI J. Forecast. PD DEC PY 1993 VL 12 IS 8 BP 654 EP 656 DI 10.1002/for.3980120809 PG 3 WC Economics; Management SC Business & Economics GA ML254 UT WOS:A1993ML25400008 ER PT J AU HUTCHISON, MM AF HUTCHISON, MM TI STRUCTURAL-CHANGE AND THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF OIL SHOCKS - EMPIRICAL-EVIDENCE FROM THE UNITED-STATES AND JAPAN SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE LA English DT Article ID AGGREGATE AB This paper investigates whether the USA and Japan have become better insulated from oil price disturbances due to more favorable structural conditions: new production technologies allowing greater energy substitution, the development of energy commodity markets, reduced energy-intensity of production, more market-oriented energy policies, and so on. We decompose the influences of oil shocks on real GNP growth and inflation movements in the context of a simultaneous equation model where identification is partly achieved by restricting the long-run dynamics. We find that oil shocks accounted for a greatly reduced fraction of real GNP growth and inflation variance in both countries primarily because of superior insulation characteristics rather than reduced importance of oil disturbances. Our estimates suggest that a similar percentage oil price hike would have exerted about one-quarter the contractionary effect on real GNP and upward push in inflation in the 1980s compared with the previous two decades. (JEL: E31, E32, F30). C1 FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO,CTR PACIFIC BASIN MONETARY & ECON STUDIES,SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94120. RP HUTCHISON, MM (reprint author), UNIV CALIF SANTA CRUZ,DEPT ECON,SANTA CRUZ,CA 95064, USA. NR 35 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 1 U2 6 PU BUTTERWORTH-HEINEMANN LTD PI OXFORD PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX5 1GB SN 0261-5606 J9 J INT MONEY FINANC JI J. Int. Money Finan. PD DEC PY 1993 VL 12 IS 6 BP 587 EP 606 DI 10.1016/0261-5606(93)90027-9 PG 20 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA MN285 UT WOS:A1993MN28500002 ER PT J AU CROUSHORE, D AF CROUSHORE, D TI MONEY IN THE UTILITY FUNCTION - FUNCTIONAL EQUIVALENCE TO A SHOPPING-TIME MODEL SO JOURNAL OF MACROECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID TRANSACTIONS COSTS; INFLATION AB Does the money-in-the-utility-function (MUF) model provide an adequate microfoundation for monetary theory? Feenstra (1986) argues that it does by showing an equivalence between the MUF model and other microfoundations-of-money models. This paper raises two difficulties with Feenstra's approach. It then uses his analysis to show that a shopping-time model of money is equivalent to an MUF model and overcomes these two objections. RP CROUSHORE, D (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 12 TC 8 Z9 8 U1 0 U2 1 PU LOUISIANA STATE UNIV PR PI BATON ROUGE PA BATON ROUGE, LA 70893 SN 0164-0704 J9 J MACROECON JI J. Macroecon. PD WIN PY 1993 VL 15 IS 1 BP 175 EP 182 DI 10.1016/0164-0704(93)90060-Y PG 8 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA KG643 UT WOS:A1993KG64300011 ER PT J AU KING, RG LEVINE, R AF KING, RG LEVINE, R TI FINANCE, ENTREPRENEURSHIP, AND GROWTH - THEORY AND EVIDENCE SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT World-Bank Conference CY FEB, 1993 CL WASHINGTON, DC SP WORLD BANK DE FINANCIAL MARKETS; ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ID INTERMEDIATION; POLICY AB How do financial systems affect economic growth? We construct an endogenous growth model in which financial systems evaluate prospective entrepreneurs, mobilize savings to finance the most promising productivity-enhancing activities, diversify the risks associated with these innovative activities, and reveal the expected profits from engaging in innovation rather than the production of existing goods using existing methods. Better financial systems improve the probability of successful innovation and thereby accelerate economic growth. Similarly, financial sector distortions reduce the rate of economic growth by reducing the rate of innovation. A broad battery of evidence suggests that financial systems are important for productivity growth and economic development. C1 FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND,RICHMOND,VA 23261. WORLD BANK,WASHINGTON,DC 20433. RP KING, RG (reprint author), UNIV VIRGINIA,DEPT ECON,ROUSS HALL 116,CHARLOTTESVILLE,VA 22901, USA. NR 49 TC 584 Z9 612 U1 21 U2 141 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD DEC PY 1993 VL 32 IS 3 BP 513 EP 542 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(93)90028-E PG 30 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA MU759 UT WOS:A1993MU75900007 ER PT J AU TANNENWALD, R AF TANNENWALD, R TI STATE AND FEDERAL-TAX EQUITY - ESTIMATES BEFORE AND AFTER THE TAX-REFORM ACT OF 1986 - COMMENT SO JOURNAL OF POLICY ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT LA English DT Note ID LIFETIME RP TANNENWALD, R (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,RES DEPT,BANKING STRUCT UNIT,BOSTON,MA, USA. NR 9 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU JOHN WILEY & SONS INC PI NEW YORK PA 605 THIRD AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10158-0012 SN 0276-8739 J9 J POLICY ANAL MANAG JI J. Policy Anal. Manage. PD WIN PY 1993 VL 12 IS 1 BP 47 EP 50 DI 10.2307/3325458 PG 4 WC Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA KE177 UT WOS:A1993KE17700004 ER PT J AU WATSON, MW AF WATSON, MW TI MEASURES OF FIT FOR CALIBRATED MODELS SO JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Article ID RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS MODELS; REAL BUSINESS CYCLES; AGGREGATE FLUCTUATIONS; BUILD; LABOR; TIME AB This paper suggests a new procedure for evaluating the fit of a dynamic structural economic model. The procedure begins by augmenting the variables in the model with just enough stochastic error so that the model can exactly match the second moments of the actual data. Measures of fit for the model can then be constructed on the basis of the size of this error. The procedure is applied to a standard real business cycle model. Over the business cycle frequencies, the model must be augmented with a substantial error to match data for the postwar U.S. economy. Lower bounds on the variance of the error range from 40 percent to 60 percent of the variance in the actual data. C1 FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL. UNIV CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL 60637. RP WATSON, MW (reprint author), NORTHWESTERN UNIV,EVANSTON,IL 60208, USA. NR 42 TC 121 Z9 122 U1 1 U2 5 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0022-3808 J9 J POLIT ECON JI J. Polit. Econ. PD DEC PY 1993 VL 101 IS 6 BP 1011 EP 1041 DI 10.1086/261913 PG 31 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA MP308 UT WOS:A1993MP30800003 ER PT J AU DYNAN, KE AF DYNAN, KE TI HOW PRUDENT ARE CONSUMERS SO JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Article ID PRECAUTIONARY SAVINGS; CONSUMPTION AB Using data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, this paper presents a simple test that provides an explicit estimate of the parameter in the utility function that reflects the strength of the precautionary saving motive, the coefficient of relative prudence. The test yields a fairly precise estimate of a small precautionary motive; in fact, the estimate is too small to be consistent with widely accepted beliefs about risk aversion. The presence of liquidity-constrained households does not appear to explain this finding, and there is some evidence that self-selection of households into risky environments also cannot explain the results. RP DYNAN, KE (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 12 TC 111 Z9 113 U1 2 U2 10 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0022-3808 J9 J POLIT ECON JI J. Polit. Econ. PD DEC PY 1993 VL 101 IS 6 BP 1104 EP 1113 DI 10.1086/261916 PG 10 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA MP308 UT WOS:A1993MP30800006 ER PT J AU AIZCORBE, AM JACKMAN, PC AF AIZCORBE, AM JACKMAN, PC TI THE COMMODITY SUBSTITUTION EFFECT IN CPI DATA, 1982-91 SO MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW LA English DT Article C1 US BUR LABOR STAT,DIV PRICE & PRICE INDEXES,WASHINGTON,DC. RP AIZCORBE, AM (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 17 TC 17 Z9 17 U1 0 U2 0 PU US GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE PI WASHINGTON PA SUPT OF DOCUMENTS, WASHINGTON, DC 20402-9325 SN 0098-1818 J9 MON LABOR REV JI Mon. Labor Rev. PD DEC PY 1993 VL 116 IS 12 BP 25 EP 33 PG 9 WC Industrial Relations & Labor SC Business & Economics GA MU888 UT WOS:A1993MU88800003 ER PT J AU KUSKO, AL RUBIN, LS AF KUSKO, AL RUBIN, LS TI MEASURING THE AGGREGATE HIGH-EMPLOYMENT BUDGET FOR STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS SO NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL LA English DT Article ID INCOME AB This paper offers a quantitative assessment of the relationship between the aggregate budget for the state and local government sector and the business cycle. We develop a state and local analog to the federal high-employment budget (HEB) to indicate whether the sector's budget is ''structurally sound'' and whether the sector is providing fiscal stimulus or restraint. Our results suggest that while cyclical forces have exacerbated the pressures on states and localities in recent years, these effects have been dominated by a fundamental imbalance between the sector's spending programs and its tax structure. C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 18 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 2 U2 3 PU NATL TAX ASSN PI COLUMBUS PA 5310 EAST MAIN ST, COLUMBUS, OH 43213 SN 0028-0283 J9 NATL TAX J JI Natl. Tax J. PD DEC PY 1993 VL 46 IS 4 BP 411 EP 423 PG 13 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA MQ999 UT WOS:A1993MQ99900002 ER PT J AU JOHNSON, R AF JOHNSON, R TI TERMS OF TRADE SHIFTS AND INTERNATIONAL MACROECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS SO REVIEW OF BLACK POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT SESSION ON ESSAYS IN HONOR OF ROBERT S BROWNE, AT THE 1990 ANNUAL MEETING OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMICS ASSOC CY DEC 28, 1990 CL WASHINGTON, DC SP NATL ECON ASSOC AB This paper focuses on the relationship between developing-country terms of trade and underlying economic fundamentals in the industrial economies. The focus is limited to the terms of trade of the five developing-country regions (Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and the Western Hemisphere). The analysis is based on a version of the arbitrage pricing model, which is used extensively in the literature on capital market analysis. This model links developing-country terms of trade to indicators of international macroeconomic fundamentals. In this model the terms of trade are characterized as the price of a hedge portfolio consisting of a long position in exports and a short position in imports. The primary finding is that there does not appear to be an important link between developing-country terms of trade and underlying fundamentals in the industrial countries. RP JOHNSON, R (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,FINANCIAL RES DEPT,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 7 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU NATL ECON ASSN ATLANTA UNIV CENTER PI ATLANTA PA 360 WESTVIEW DR SW, ATLANTA, GA 30310 SN 0034-6446 J9 REV BLACK POLIT ECON JI Rev. Black Polit. Econ. PD WIN PY 1993 VL 21 IS 3 BP 73 EP 85 DI 10.1007/BF02701706 PG 13 WC Economics; Ethnic Studies SC Business & Economics; Ethnic Studies GA KU125 UT WOS:A1993KU12500007 ER PT J AU ACHARYA, S DIWAN, I AF ACHARYA, S DIWAN, I TI DEBT BUYBACKS SIGNAL SOVEREIGN COUNTRIES CREDITWORTHINESS - THEORY AND TESTS SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID MODEL; BONDS AB We show that debt buybacks could convey valuable information about indebted countries' willingness to invest and increase debt repayment, when creditors are less informed than debtors. In an informational equilibrium, unwilling countries do not repurchase a part of their debt, but willing countries do; and creditors increase debt repayments by offering reliefs only to those countries that repurchase. Data show that creditors systematically grant debt reliefs only to countries with buyback programs; and a country's secondary market debt price is higher when it has a buyback program than if it does not. C1 WORLD BANK,WASHINGTON,DC 20433. RP ACHARYA, S (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 28 TC 11 Z9 11 U1 0 U2 2 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD NOV PY 1993 VL 34 IS 4 BP 795 EP 817 DI 10.2307/2526966 PG 23 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ME791 UT WOS:A1993ME79100003 ER PT J AU ROBERTS, JM AF ROBERTS, JM TI THE SOURCES OF BUSINESS CYCLES - A MONETARIST INTERPRETATION SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID UNITED-STATES; DEMAND AB Long-run restrictions can be imposed on a vector autoregressive model to identify structural macroeconomic shocks, as first proposed by Olivier Blanchard and Danny Quah. Here, I use restrictions motivated by Milton Friedman's remark that ''Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon'' to identify low-frequency movements in inflation with changes in the central bank's desired inflation rate. I can then determine the portion of U.S. business-cycle fluctuations that results from changes in the inflation target. As well, I extend the Blanchard-Quah technique to overidentified models using an asymptotically efficient minimum-distance approach. RP ROBERTS, JM (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 15 TC 12 Z9 12 U1 1 U2 3 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD NOV PY 1993 VL 34 IS 4 BP 923 EP 934 DI 10.2307/2526972 PG 12 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ME791 UT WOS:A1993ME79100009 ER PT J AU WALSH, CE AF WALSH, CE TI CENTRAL BANK STRATEGIES, CREDIBILITY, AND INDEPENDENCE - A REVIEW-ESSAY SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE INFLATION; MONETARY POLICY; CENTRAL BANKING ID MONETARY-POLICY; SEIGNIORAGE; COMMITMENT C1 FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO,SAN FRANCISCO,CA. RP WALSH, CE (reprint author), UNIV CALIF SANTA CRUZ,DEPT ECON,SANTA CRUZ,CA 95064, USA. NR 32 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD NOV PY 1993 VL 32 IS 2 BP 287 EP 302 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(93)90006-2 PG 16 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA MT044 UT WOS:A1993MT04400005 ER PT J AU CARLINO, GA MILLS, LO AF CARLINO, GA MILLS, LO TI ARE US REGIONAL INCOMES CONVERGING - A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE ANALYSIS OF GROWTH, DEVELOPMENT AND CHANGE; ECONOMIC GROWTH AND AGGREGATE PRODUCTIVITY; MULTIPLE/SIMULTANEOUS EQUATION MODELS; TIME SERIES MODELS AB The time series properties of per-capita income in U.S. regions are tested for consistency with the neoclassical growth model's prediction of per-capita income convergence. Two conditions are required for convergence. Shocks to relative regional per-capita incomes should be temporary (stochastic convergence), and initially poor regions should catch up to rich regions (beta-convergence). We find evidence for stochastic convergence across U.S. regions during the 1929-90 period after allowing for a trend break in 1946. We also find that U.S. regions have achieved beta-convergence. These findings support the neoclassical model's prediction of conditional convergence. C1 FED NATL MORTGAGE ASSOC,WASHINGTON,DC 20016. RP CARLINO, GA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,RES DEPT,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 15 TC 191 Z9 192 U1 0 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD NOV PY 1993 VL 32 IS 2 BP 335 EP 346 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(93)90009-5 PG 12 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA MT044 UT WOS:A1993MT04400008 ER PT J AU FREEMAN, S AF FREEMAN, S TI RESOLVING DIFFERENCES OVER THE OPTIMAL QUANTITY OF MONEY SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID DEBT NEUTRALITY; EQUILIBRIUM; WELFARE; THEOREM C1 FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,DALLAS,TX. RP FREEMAN, S (reprint author), UNIV TEXAS,DALLAS,TX 75230, USA. NR 27 TC 10 Z9 10 U1 0 U2 3 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1993 VL 25 IS 4 BP 801 EP 811 DI 10.2307/2077807 PG 11 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA ME685 UT WOS:A1993ME68500008 ER PT J AU ISRAILEVICH, PR AF ISRAILEVICH, PR TI REGIONAL POLICY AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS - HORVATH,G SO JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE LA English DT Book Review RP ISRAILEVICH, PR (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL 60604, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU BLACKWELL PUBLISHERS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 350 MAIN STREET, STE 6, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02148-5023 SN 0022-4146 J9 J REGIONAL SCI JI J. Reg. Sci. PD NOV PY 1993 VL 33 IS 4 BP 578 EP 580 PG 3 WC Economics; Environmental Studies; Planning & Development SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Public Administration GA MJ701 UT WOS:A1993MJ70100015 ER PT J AU KODRZYCKI, YK AF KODRZYCKI, YK TI TAX-REFORM IN NEWLY EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article RP KODRZYCKI, YK (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA, USA. NR 28 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD NOV-DEC PY 1993 BP 3 EP 17 PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA MQ407 UT WOS:A1993MQ40700001 ER PT J AU FUHRER, JC AF FUHRER, JC TI COMMODITY PRICES, THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST-RATES, AND EXCHANGE-RATES - USEFUL INDICATORS FOR MONETARY-POLICY SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article RP FUHRER, JC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA, USA. RI Fuhrer, Jeff/F-8852-2013 NR 18 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 5 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD NOV-DEC PY 1993 BP 18 EP 32 PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA MQ407 UT WOS:A1993MQ40700002 ER PT J AU HESS, GD AF HESS, GD TI A TEST OF THE THEORY OF OPTIMAL TAXATION FOR THE UNITED-STATES, 1869-1989 SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Note ID RATES; TIME AB A popular theory of optimal tax policies suggests that tax rates should follow a random walk. This paper extends the existing empirical literature in three ways. First, the impact on the marginal utility of consumption when the government chooses a tax plan to smooth the distorting impact of taxes is considered. Second, exogenous changes in the real rate of interest are incorporated into the government's optimal tax plan. Finally, the tax elasticity of output is not constant over time. Allowing for these changes, there is evidence that the government discounts the future, attempts to smooth the distorting impact of taxes on the marginal utility of consumption, and that the tax elasticity of output moves predictably during wars. RP HESS, GD (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC, USA. NR 16 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 2 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD NOV PY 1993 VL 75 IS 4 BP 712 EP 716 DI 10.2307/2110027 PG 5 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA NW004 UT WOS:A1993NW00400017 ER PT J AU HAUBRICH, JG AF HAUBRICH, JG TI CONSUMPTION AND FRACTIONAL DIFFERENCING - OLD AND NEW ANOMALIES SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Note ID INCOME; PERMANENT; SMOOTH; MEMORY AB This paper calculates the stochastic properties of consumption when income follows a fractionally differenced process. It shows bow such a process may resolve Deaton's excessive smoothness paradox while assuming both the permanent income hypothesis and a univariate process for income. Tests and simulations suggest the evidence is consistent with income following such a process. RP HAUBRICH, JG (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH, USA. NR 18 TC 8 Z9 8 U1 0 U2 0 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD NOV PY 1993 VL 75 IS 4 BP 767 EP 772 DI 10.2307/2110038 PG 6 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA NW004 UT WOS:A1993NW00400028 ER PT J AU CARLSON, V AF CARLSON, V TI TOOK THOSE JOBS AND SHOVED EM SO NATION LA English DT Letter C1 FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU NATION CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 72 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10011 SN 0027-8378 J9 NATION JI Nation PD OCT 18 PY 1993 VL 257 IS 12 BP 410 EP 410 PG 1 WC Political Science SC Government & Law GA MA885 UT WOS:A1993MA88500006 ER PT J AU BREWER, E MONDSCHEAN, TH AF BREWER, E MONDSCHEAN, TH TI LIFE-INSURANCE COMPANY RISK EXPOSURE - MARKET EVIDENCE AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS SO CONTEMPORARY POLICY ISSUES LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 67TH ANNUAL CONF OF THE WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INTERNATIONAL CY JUL 11, 1992 CL SAN FRANCISCO, CA SP W ECON ASSOC INT AB Life insurance company (LIC) risk exposure increased during the 1980s while capital ratios declined. State guarantee funds that exist to handle policyholder's losses in the event of LIC failure can create incentives for excessive risk taking, just as the federal deposit insurance system did for savings and loan associations. This paper examines the relationship between stock market risk and LIC risk exposure. A sample of 44 LICs revealed that stock market risk is positively related to financial leverage as well as to differences in asset mix. This finding confirms that market data can help identify LICs with greater risk exposure. C1 DE PAUL UNIV,CHICAGO,IL 60614. RP BREWER, E (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL, USA. NR 21 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 1 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 SN 0735-0007 J9 CONTEMP POLICY ISSUE PD OCT PY 1993 VL 11 IS 4 BP 56 EP 69 PG 14 WC Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA MD391 UT WOS:A1993MD39100006 ER PT J AU ROSENSWEIG, JA TALLMAN, EW AF ROSENSWEIG, JA TALLMAN, EW TI FISCAL-POLICY AND TRADE ADJUSTMENT - ARE THE DEFICITS REALLY TWINS SO ECONOMIC INQUIRY LA English DT Article AB Since the mid 1980s, an extensive empirical literature has examined the relationship between U.S. fiscal deficits, exchange rates, and trade balances. We investigate two questions that continue to spark debate: do increased government deficits cause dollar appreciation, and do fiscal deficits lead to higher trade deficits (the popular 'twin deficit' notion)? We examine these issues using a five-variable VAR system, generating posterior probability bounds to assess significance. Our results provide some evidence that growing government deficits appreciate the dollar, and support the ''twin deficit'' notion that government deficits contribute to trade deficits. C1 FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,ATLANTA,GA. RP ROSENSWEIG, JA (reprint author), EMORY UNIV,SCH BUSINESS,ATLANTA,GA 30322, USA. NR 26 TC 13 Z9 14 U1 0 U2 2 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 SN 0095-2583 J9 ECON INQ JI Econ. Inq. PD OCT PY 1993 VL 31 IS 4 BP 580 EP 594 PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA MD424 UT WOS:A1993MD42400006 ER PT J AU DEMSETZ, RS AF DEMSETZ, RS TI VOTING-BEHAVIOR IN UNION REPRESENTATION ELECTIONS - THE INFLUENCE OF SKILL HOMOGENEITY AND SKILL GROUP-SIZE SO INDUSTRIAL & LABOR RELATIONS REVIEW LA English DT Article AB The author analyzes data from survey responses of nonunion workers involved in 29 NLRB representation elections in 1972 and 1973 to test the hypotheses (1) that skill-homogeneous groups of workers are more readily organized than are still-heterogeneous groups and (2) that the workers in an election unit's largest skill groups will have the strongest pro-union tendencies. The results confirm the first hypothesis (though the results are sensitive to the inclusion of the most skill-homogeneous workplaces sampled), but only weakly support the second. The author concludes that this analysis may provide a new explanation for the decline in successful union organizing, if it is true that the workers comprising potential bargaining units have become increasingly skill-heterogeneous over time. RP DEMSETZ, RS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,33 LIBERTY ST,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 16 TC 9 Z9 9 U1 0 U2 1 PU INDUSTRIAL LABOR RELAT REV PI ITHACA PA CORNELL UNIV, ITHACA, NY 14851-0952 SN 0019-7939 J9 IND LABOR RELAT REV JI Ind. Labor Relat. Rev. PD OCT PY 1993 VL 47 IS 1 BP 99 EP 113 DI 10.2307/2524235 PG 15 WC Industrial Relations & Labor SC Business & Economics GA LZ804 UT WOS:A1993LZ80400008 ER PT J AU ENGLE, RF KOZICKI, S AF ENGLE, RF KOZICKI, S TI TESTING FOR COMMON FEATURES SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS LA English DT Article DE CANONICAL CORRELATION; COINTEGRATION; FACTOR ARCH; GENERALIZED METHOD OF MOMENTS; INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES; VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION ID MULTIPLE TIME-SERIES; INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE; AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS; COINTEGRATION VECTORS AB This article introduces a class of statistical tests for the hypothesis that some feature that is present in each of several variables is common to them. Features are data properties such as serial correlation, trends, seasonality, heteroscedasticity, autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity, and excess kurtosis. A feature is detected by a hypothesis test taking no feature as the null, and a common feature is detected by a test that finds linear combinations of variables with no feature. Often, an exact asymptotic critical value can be obtained that is simply a test of overidentifying restrictions in an instrumental variable regression. This article tests for a common international business cycle. C1 FED RESERVE BOARD, DIV RES & STAT, WASHINGTON, DC 20551 USA. RP ENGLE, RF (reprint author), UNIV CALIF SAN DIEGO, DEPT ECON, LA JOLLA, CA 92093 USA. NR 34 TC 198 Z9 202 U1 3 U2 8 PU AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC PI ALEXANDRIA PA 732 N WASHINGTON ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314-1943 USA SN 0735-0015 EI 1537-2707 J9 J BUS ECON STAT JI J. Bus. Econ. Stat. PD OCT PY 1993 VL 11 IS 4 BP 369 EP 380 DI 10.2307/1391623 PG 12 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Mathematics GA MA271 UT WOS:A1993MA27100001 ER PT J AU ERICSSON, NR AF ERICSSON, NR TI TESTING FOR COMMON FEATURES - COMMENT SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS LA English DT Note RP ERICSSON, NR (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,DIV INT FINANCE,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 11 TC 11 Z9 11 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC PI ALEXANDRIA PA 1429 DUKE ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 SN 0735-0015 J9 J BUS ECON STAT JI J. Bus. Econ. Stat. PD OCT PY 1993 VL 11 IS 4 BP 380 EP 383 DI 10.2307/1391624 PG 4 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Mathematics GA MA271 UT WOS:A1993MA27100002 ER PT J AU RUUD, JS AF RUUD, JS TI UNDERWRITER PRICE SUPPORT AND THE IPO UNDERPRICING PUZZLE SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERINGS; IPO UNDERPRICING; PRICE SUPPORT; STABILIZATION ID INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERINGS; INVESTMENT BANKING; ISSUES; MODEL; MARKET AB This paper reassesses the apparent systematic underpricing of initial public offerings (IPOs). Investigation of the distribution of initial returns following IPOs shows that positive mean initial returns may reflect the existence of a partially unobserved left (negative) tail. Moreover, most IPOs with zero one-day returns subsequently fall in price, suggesting that underwriter price support may account for the skewed distribution and hence the phenomenon of positive average initial IPO returns, even if offering prices are set at expected market value. This paper thus challenges the presumption underlying previous research that positive average initial IPO returns result primarily from deliberate underpricing. RP RUUD, JS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,ROOM 929,33 LIBERTY ST,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 24 TC 56 Z9 58 U1 3 U2 15 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0304-405X J9 J FINANC ECON JI J. Financ. Econ. PD OCT PY 1993 VL 34 IS 2 BP 135 EP 151 DI 10.1016/0304-405X(93)90015-4 PG 17 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA MC268 UT WOS:A1993MC26800001 ER PT J AU MANN, CL AF MANN, CL TI DETERMINANTS OF JAPANESE DIRECT-INVESTMENT IN UNITED-STATES MANUFACTURING-INDUSTRIES SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE LA English DT Article ID FOREIGN-INVESTMENT; MULTINATIONAL-FIRM; TRADE; EXPECTATIONS; PRICES; RATES AB A hybrid model of direct investment is developed from an asset portfolio model and an industrial organization model of investment. Encompassing tests using disaggregated data validate the hybrid model, while its two component models are rejected by at least some of the data. The exchange rate is found to be an important explanatory variable for direct investment in some but not all of US industries. Equity purchase is more likely in R&D intensive industries, in privately held companies, and in highly concentrated industries. Plant and equipment investment is more likely in industries with increasing returns to scale, and in industries experiencing large net export deficits with Japan. RP MANN, CL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD, DIV INT FINANCE DIV, MAILSTOP 42, WASHINGTON, DC 20551 USA. NR 41 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 3 PU BUTTERWORTH-HEINEMANN LTD PI OXFORD PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX5 1GB SN 0261-5606 J9 J INT MONEY FINANC JI J. Int. Money Finan. PD OCT PY 1993 VL 12 IS 5 BP 523 EP 541 DI 10.1016/0261-5606(93)90038-D PG 19 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA ME497 UT WOS:A1993ME49700005 ER PT J AU CHATTERJEE, S COOPER, R RAVIKUMAR, B AF CHATTERJEE, S COOPER, R RAVIKUMAR, B TI STRATEGIC COMPLEMENTARITY IN BUSINESS FORMATION - AGGREGATE FLUCTUATIONS AND SUNSPOT EQUILIBRIA SO REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES LA English DT Article ID IMPERFECT COMPETITION; CYCLES; EXISTENCE; ECONOMY; PRICE; MODEL AB The possibility of sunspot equilibria and endogenous cycles are explored in a two-sector overlapping-generations model with entry. It is shown that if prospective entrants act oligopolistically as producers but competitively as consumers then a strategic complementarity between the entry decisions of agents across sectors and across time may arise. If the complementarity is sufficiently strong, the economy will have multiple, Pareto-ranked steady states. Stationary sunspot equilibria can then be constructed as a randomization between allocations in the neighbourhood of the multiple steady states providing a source of aggregate fluctuations. C1 BOSTON UNIV,BOSTON,MA 02215. UNIV VIRGINIA,CHARLOTTESVILLE,VA 22903. RP CHATTERJEE, S (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,PHILADELPHIA,PA, USA. RI Ravikumar, B./K-6862-2016 OI Ravikumar, B./0000-0001-6991-4677 NR 38 TC 36 Z9 36 U1 0 U2 5 PU REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES LTD PI OXFORD PA C/O BASIL BLACKWELL LTD 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX4 1JF SN 0034-6527 J9 REV ECON STUD JI Rev. Econ. Stud. PD OCT PY 1993 VL 60 IS 4 BP 795 EP 811 DI 10.2307/2298100 PG 17 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA MC131 UT WOS:A1993MC13100003 ER PT J AU KEHOE, TJ LEVINE, DK AF KEHOE, TJ LEVINE, DK TI DEBT-CONSTRAINED ASSET MARKETS SO REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES LA English DT Article ID LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS; PRIVATE INFORMATION; EQUILIBRIUM; CONSUMPTION; EXISTENCE; PLANS AB We develop a theory of general equilibrium with endogenous debt limits in the form of individual rationality constraints similar to those in the dynamic consistency literature. If an agent defaults on a contract, he can be excluded from future contingent claims markets trading and can have his assets seized. He cannot be excluded from spot markets trading, however, and he has some private endowments that cannot be seized. All information is publicly held and common knowledge, and there is a complete set of contingent claims markets. Since there is complete information, an agent cannot enter into a contract in which he would have an incentive to default in some state. In general there is only partial insurance: variations in consumption may be imperfectly correlated across agents; interest rates may be lower than they would be without constraints; and equilibria may be Pareto ranked. C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. UNIV CALIF LOS ANGELES,LOS ANGELES,CA 90024. RP KEHOE, TJ (reprint author), UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455, USA. NR 28 TC 190 Z9 191 U1 0 U2 10 PU REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES LTD PI OXFORD PA C/O BASIL BLACKWELL LTD 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX4 1JF SN 0034-6527 J9 REV ECON STUD JI Rev. Econ. Stud. PD OCT PY 1993 VL 60 IS 4 BP 865 EP 888 DI 10.2307/2298103 PG 24 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA MC131 UT WOS:A1993MC13100006 ER PT J AU DARIN, RM AF DARIN, RM TI MONETARY REGIME TRANSFORMATIONS - EICHENGREEN,B SO SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL LA English DT Book Review RP DARIN, RM (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND,RICHMOND,VA 23261, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU UNIV NORTH CAROLINA PI CHAPEL HILL PA SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, CHAPEL HILL, NC 27514 SN 0038-4038 J9 SOUTHERN ECON J JI South. Econ. J. PD OCT PY 1993 VL 60 IS 2 BP 510 EP 512 DI 10.2307/1060101 PG 3 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA MA834 UT WOS:A1993MA83400023 ER PT J AU OTROK, CM AF OTROK, CM TI MAJOR INFLATIONS IN HISTORY - CAPIE,FH SO SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL LA English DT Book Review RP OTROK, CM (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND,RICHMOND,VA 23261, USA. RI Otrok, Christopher/B-6507-2008 NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU UNIV NORTH CAROLINA PI CHAPEL HILL PA SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, CHAPEL HILL, NC 27514 SN 0038-4038 J9 SOUTHERN ECON J JI South. Econ. J. PD OCT PY 1993 VL 60 IS 2 BP 528 EP 530 DI 10.2307/1060114 PG 3 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA MA834 UT WOS:A1993MA83400036 ER PT J AU JACOBSON, LS LALONDE, RJ SULLIVAN, DG AF JACOBSON, LS LALONDE, RJ SULLIVAN, DG TI EARNINGS LOSSES OF DISPLACED WORKERS SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID TRAINING-PROGRAMS; MEASUREMENT ERROR; UNEMPLOYMENT; TURNOVER; EXTENT AB We exploit administrative data combining workers' earnings histories with information about their firms to estimate the magnitude and temporal pattern of displaced workers' earnings losses. We find that high-tenure workers separating from distressed firms suffer long-term losses averaging 25 percent per year. In addition, we find that displaced workers' losses: (i) begin mounting before their separations, (ii) depend only slightly on their age and sex, (iii) depend more on local labor-market conditions and their former industries, (iv) are not, however, limited to those in a few sectors, and (v) are large even for those who find new jobs in similar firms. C1 UNIV CHICAGO,GRAD SCH BUSINESS,CHICAGO,IL 60637. NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. W E UPJOHN INST EMPLOYMENT RES,KALAMAZOO,MI 49007. FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL 60604. RP JACOBSON, LS (reprint author), WESTAT CORP,ROCKVILLE,MD 20850, USA. NR 30 TC 517 Z9 519 U1 2 U2 21 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD SEP PY 1993 VL 83 IS 4 BP 685 EP 709 PG 25 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA LZ141 UT WOS:A1993LZ14100001 ER PT J AU KEANE, MP AF KEANE, MP TI NOMINAL-CONTRACTING THEORIES OF UNEMPLOYMENT - EVIDENCE FROM PANEL-DATA SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID UNANTICIPATED MONEY GROWTH; UNITED-STATES; REAL WAGES; STABILIZATION POLICY; ALTERNATIVE MODELS; MONETARY-POLICY; BUSINESS-CYCLE; STICKY PRICES; LABOR-MARKET; EMPLOYMENT AB This paper examines economy-wide and sector-specific responses of real wages to nominal shocks using micro panel data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Young Men. The observed response patterns provide no support for nominal-contracting theories of unemployment, which predict that nominal surprises should be negatively correlated with real wages. In fact, both inflation and money-growth surprises are found to be essentially uncorrelated with real wages. Either a real-business-cycle model or a model with rigidities in commodity prices could be consistent with these results. C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. RP KEANE, MP (reprint author), UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455, USA. RI Keane, Michael/O-2840-2013 OI Keane, Michael/0000-0002-3918-1377 NR 33 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 3 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD SEP PY 1993 VL 83 IS 4 BP 932 EP 952 PG 21 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA LZ141 UT WOS:A1993LZ14100013 ER PT J AU TODD, WF AF TODD, WF TI THE EVOLVING LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR FINANCIAL SERVICES SO CATO JOURNAL LA English DT Article RP TODD, WF (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH, USA. NR 51 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU CATO INSTITUTE PI WASHINGTON PA 1000 MASSACHUSETTS AVE., NW #6, WASHINGTON, DC 20001-5403 SN 0273-3072 J9 CATO J JI Cato J. PD FAL PY 1993 VL 13 IS 2 BP 207 EP 228 PG 22 WC Public Administration SC Public Administration GA PX369 UT WOS:A1993PX36900006 ER PT J AU DEGENNARO, RP LANG, LHP THOMSON, JB AF DEGENNARO, RP LANG, LHP THOMSON, JB TI TROUBLED SAVINGS-AND-LOAN INSTITUTIONS - TURNAROUND STRATEGIES UNDER INSOLVENCY SO FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB Throughout the 1980s and into the 1990s, the thrift industry (savings and loans (S&Ls) and mutual savings banks) was plagued by severe problems that led to massive numbers of insolvencies which bankrupted the govemment fund established to insure the industry's deposits.1 Public concem about the enormous cost of the cleanup, though certainly justified, obscures an important fact: Unlike industries that require insolvent institutions to renegotiate with creditors immediately or under Chapter 11 protection (see Gilson, John, and Lang [17]), thrifts often operate in an insolvent condition for extended periods. Although most undercapitalized thrifts remain weak or eventually fail, some do successfully rebuild their capital ratios to levels exceeding the regulatory minimum. Differently from previous studies, this paper investigates the restructuring strategies adopted by these recovered institutions and compares them to the operating strategies of thrifts that failed.2 Although many factors contributed to the thrift industry's problems, two are generally considered most important: interest rate risk and credit risk. The industry's policy of funding long-term loans (principally mortgages) with short-term financing (principally deposits) makes it vulnerable to unexpected increases in interest rates. Short-term rates reached 20% in 1979. Three years later, according to a 1987 U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO) report, unexpected rate increases had inflicted large capital losses on thrifts having positive duration gaps. For many of these firms, however, the losses were largely offset by the unexpected decrease in rates (and the lower volatilities of those rates) later in the year. Although interest rate risk was the major source of thrifts' losses in the first half of the 1980s, credit risk became the dominant factor behind the industry's woes during the second half of the decade (see White [34, Ch. 5 and 6]). By 1987, the deteriorating quality of assets in thrift portfolios, particularly real estate investments in the Southwest, accounted for virtually all of the industry's remaining problems. From the late 1970s through mid-1989, regulators, gambling that unexpectedly lower interest rates would restore thrift institutions to health, progressed through several stages in their attempts to resolve the crisis. The required capital ratio was dramatically reduced, and regulators even permitted a number of thrifts deemed insolvent under regulatory accounting principles (RAP) to continue to operate. Despite the potential problems inherent in such a policy, this action gave the industry two important advantages: First, beginning in the early 1980s, the policy granted thrifts expanded investment and lending powers with which to restructure their business strategies. Second, although many of these new powers were restricted by early 1985, thrifts were given an extended period in which to rebuild their capital ratios. Granting new powers and the time to implement them did not change the incentive structure that the industry faced, however. The FSLIC continued to provide deposit insurance at rates independent of risk. In addition, staffing reductions at the Federal Home Loan Bank Board (FHLBB) meant fewer examiners and thus less-stringent monitoring. Under these conditions, theory suggests that thrift managers will take larger risks, even if the expected retum is not commensurate with those risks.3 Therefore, it was not clear a priori that the industry would utilize its newfound advantages to retrench and restructure in an attempt to regain solvency. Thrifts could have chosen to engage in risky operations that would have eroded their portfolio quality and endangered their recovery. Our study shows that almost all of the largest 300 thrifts posting capital deficiencies at the end of 1979 utilized the flexibility granted by the lower required capital ratio; yet, only 24% had recovered by the end of 1989. In contrast, more than half (55%) of the institutions had failed or merged. The remaining thrifts continued to operate, but with less capital than required by Congress in the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act (FIRREA) of 1989. Even with continued regulatory forbearance, we find no evidence that their condition improved. Unlike previous studies, which examine differences between insolvent and well-capitalized firms, we study differences between insolvent firms that recover and those that do not. Three conclusions emerge: First, our evidence suggests that identifying which firms will eventually recover would, at best, be difficult. Combining our results with those of the earlier studies, we find that although it is relatively easy to distinguish undercapitalized thrifts from safe ones, pinpointing which of the insolvent but still operating institutions will ultimately recover may not be possible using only financial data. Second, while we find some differential use of the new investment opportunities, this does not greatly distinguish recovered firms from failed institutions. However, over time, unsuccessful firms show a movement towards poorer asset quality and non-deposit funding strategies. This is consistent with the hypothesis that regulators were gambling that troubled firms could ''grow out of their weakness'' by fueling rapid asset growth from nontraditional sources. Finally, we find little evidence that nonrecovered thrifts consuine more perks than their more successful counterparts. This implies that managers of failed firms are no more susceptible to owner-manager principal-agent problems than managers of successful ones; rather, they simply may be less fortunate or less adept at operating thrift institutions. C1 NYU,NEW YORK,NY 10003. FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH. RP DEGENNARO, RP (reprint author), UNIV TENNESSEE,KNOXVILLE,TN 37996, USA. NR 32 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 1 U2 9 PU FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT ASSOC PI TAMPA PA UNIV SOUTH FLORIDA, COLL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, 4202 E FOWLER, TAMPA, FL 33620 SN 0046-3892 J9 FINANC MANAGE JI Financ. Manage. PD FAL PY 1993 VL 22 IS 3 BP 163 EP 175 DI 10.2307/3665936 PG 13 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA MH659 UT WOS:A1993MH65900014 ER PT J AU MARQUEZ, J AF MARQUEZ, J TI THE AUTONOMY OF ELASTICITIES FOR TRADE AMONG CANADA, JAPAN, AND THE UNITED-STATES SO JAPAN AND THE WORLD ECONOMY LA English DT Article DE ROTTERDAM MODEL; PRICING TO MARKET; BILATERAL TRADE; TRADE ELASTICITIES; FIML ID ROTTERDAM MODEL; IMPORT DEMAND; FLEXIBILITY AB This paper assembles a simultaneous model explaining trade among Canada, Japan, and the United States. Spending behaves according to the Rotterdam model which, by design, embodies all of the properties of utility maximization and does not treat trade elasticities as autonomous parameters. Pricing behaves according to the pricing-to-market hypothesis which recognizes exporters' incentives to discriminate across export markets. Parameter estimation relies on the Full Information Maximum Likelihood approach and uses bilateral price data for 1965-1987. Specifically, the estimates from the Rotterdam model predict that asymmetries in income elasticities, which were important once, have vanished. RP MARQUEZ, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 28 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 2 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0922-1425 J9 JPN WORLD ECON JI Jpn. World Econ. PD SEP PY 1993 VL 5 IS 3 BP 179 EP 195 DI 10.1016/0922-1425(93)90010-2 PG 17 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA MN936 UT WOS:A1993MN93600001 ER PT J AU BOLDRIN, M KIYOTAKI, N WRIGHT, R AF BOLDRIN, M KIYOTAKI, N WRIGHT, R TI A DYNAMIC EQUILIBRIUM-MODEL OF SEARCH, PRODUCTION, AND EXCHANGE SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article ID UNEMPLOYMENT; MONEY AB We study a general equilibrium model where agents search for production and trading opportunities, that generalizes the existing literature by considering a large number of differentiated commodities and agents with idiosyncratic tastes. Thus, agents must choose nontrivial exchange as well as production strategies. We consider decreasing, constant. and increasing returns to scale in the matching technology, and characterize the circumstances under which there exist multiple steady state equilibria, or multiple dynamic equilibria for given initial conditions. We also characterize the existence of dynamic equilibria that are limit cycles. Equilibria are not generally optimal, and when multiple equilibria coexist they may be ranked. We analyze comparative statics and find that certain intuitive results do not necessarily hold without restrictions on the stochastic structure. C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. UNIV PENN,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. RP BOLDRIN, M (reprint author), NORTHWESTERN UNIV,KGSM,MEDS,EVANSTON,IL 60208, USA. NR 18 TC 16 Z9 16 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD SEP-NOV PY 1993 VL 17 IS 5-6 BP 723 EP 758 DI 10.1016/0165-1889(93)90012-H PG 36 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA MB738 UT WOS:A1993MB73800002 ER PT J AU CHIRINKO, RS AF CHIRINKO, RS TI MULTIPLE CAPITAL INPUTS, Q, AND INVESTMENT SPENDING SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article ID SPECIFICATION; EQUILIBRIUM; BEHAVIOR; MODELS; GROWTH; GOODS AB Despite their explicit treatment of dynamics and solid theoretical basis, investment models based on the Brainard-Tobin Q have recorded a generally disappointing empirical performance. When the Q model is expanded to recognize the possibility that the value of the firm depends on two or more capital inputs with differing adjustment cost technologies, the econometric equation following from optimizing behavior includes Q as well as a set of additional explanatory variables. The importance of these omitted variables is assessed, and the capital homogeneity assumption for equipment and structures implicit in Conventional Q models is rejected. The Multi-Capital Q model is then extended in two ways: (i) adding inventory, research and development, and labor as quasi-fixed factors and (ii) exploring the sensitivity of the instrumental variables estimates to normalization. We conclude that the Multi-Capital Q model is a useful extension that overcomes an important omitted variables problem in the Conventional Q framework. C1 FED RESERVE BANK KANSAS CITY, KANSAS CITY, MO 64198 USA. RP CHIRINKO, RS (reprint author), UNIV ILLINOIS, DEPT ECON, 330 COMMERCE W, 1206 S 6TH ST, CHAMPAIGN, IL 61820 USA. NR 40 TC 17 Z9 17 U1 0 U2 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD SEP-NOV PY 1993 VL 17 IS 5-6 BP 907 EP 928 DI 10.1016/0165-1889(93)90022-K PG 22 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA MB738 UT WOS:A1993MB73800012 ER PT J AU STEKLER, LE AF STEKLER, LE TI BEHIND THE NUMBERS - UNITED-STATES TRADE IN THE WORLD-ECONOMY - KESTER,AY SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE LA English DT Book Review RP STEKLER, LE (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC, USA. NR 4 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0022-0515 J9 J ECON LIT JI J. Econ. Lit. PD SEP PY 1993 VL 31 IS 3 BP 1460 EP 1462 PG 3 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA MA030 UT WOS:A1993MA03000024 ER PT J AU KUPIEC, PH AF KUPIEC, PH TI FUTURES MARGINS AND STOCK-PRICE VOLATILITY - IS THERE ANY LINK SO JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS LA English DT Article ID MARKET VOLATILITY; REQUIREMENTS; INDEX; RETURNS C1 FED RESERVE SYST,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 27 TC 8 Z9 9 U1 2 U2 4 PU JOHN WILEY & SONS INC PI NEW YORK PA 605 THIRD AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10158-0012 SN 0270-7314 J9 J FUTURES MARKETS JI J. Futures Mark. PD SEP PY 1993 VL 13 IS 6 BP 677 EP 691 DI 10.1002/fut.3990130608 PG 15 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA LR808 UT WOS:A1993LR80800007 ER PT J AU BRADBURY, KL AF BRADBURY, KL TI SHIFTING PATTERNS OF REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT - A NOTE SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Note RP BRADBURY, KL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. NR 12 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 0 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD SEP-OCT PY 1993 BP 3 EP 12 PG 10 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ME041 UT WOS:A1993ME04100001 ER PT J AU BROWNE, LE AF BROWNE, LE TI BANKS VENTURE INTO REAL-ESTATE - HIGH ROLLERS, OR LEMMINGS SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article RP BROWNE, LE (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. NR 6 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD SEP-OCT PY 1993 BP 13 EP 32 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ME041 UT WOS:A1993ME04100002 ER PT J AU TOOTELL, GMB AF TOOTELL, GMB TI DEFAULTS, DENIALS, AND DISCRIMINATION IN MORTGAGE LENDING SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article RP TOOTELL, GMB (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. NR 5 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD SEP-OCT PY 1993 BP 44 EP 51 PG 8 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ME041 UT WOS:A1993ME04100004 ER PT J AU LINDSEY, LB AF LINDSEY, LB TI THE LIMITS OF MONETARY-POLICY SO PUBLIC INTEREST LA English DT Article RP LINDSEY, LB (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU NATL AFFAIRS INC PI WASHINGTON PA 1112 16TH ST NW, SUITE 530, WASHINGTON, DC 20036 SN 0033-3557 J9 PUBLIC INTEREST JI Public Interest PD FAL PY 1993 IS 113 BP 28 EP 39 PG 12 WC Public Administration; Social Issues SC Public Administration; Social Issues GA MA852 UT WOS:A1993MA85200003 ER PT J AU AZARIADIS, C SMITH, BD AF AZARIADIS, C SMITH, BD TI ADVERSE SELECTION IN THE OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS MODEL - THE CASE OF PURE EXCHANGE SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article ID COMPETITIVE-EQUILIBRIUM; CREDIT; MONEY; INFORMATION; MARKETS; ECONOMY; CONSTRAINTS; CONSUMPTION C1 UNIV CALIF LOS ANGELES,LOS ANGELES,CA 90024. CORNELL UNIV,ITHACA,NY 14853. FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. RP AZARIADIS, C (reprint author), UNIV PENN,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104, USA. NR 36 TC 23 Z9 23 U1 0 U2 3 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0022-0531 J9 J ECON THEORY JI J. Econ. Theory PD AUG PY 1993 VL 60 IS 2 BP 277 EP 305 DI 10.1006/jeth.1993.1044 PG 29 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA LQ514 UT WOS:A1993LQ51400003 ER PT J AU CORRADO, C SPINDT, PA AF CORRADO, C SPINDT, PA TI THE MEASUREMENT AND ANALYSIS OF MONETARY TRANSACTIONS SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS LA English DT Article ID MONEY AB This paper explores linkages between the monetary payments mechanism and business activity. We introduce a new measure of the volume of transactions associated with output production (TOP) and analyze the empirical connections between TOP and other macroeconomic variables. The first part of the paper describes the accounting basis of TOP and shows how transactions accounting differs from national income and product accounting. We then show how TOP can be derived from the same basic data as is used to measure GNP. Next, we examine three applications of transactions accounting: (1) the relationships between monetary payments and other measures of business activity, (2) the flow of cash among economic sectors through payments and receipts, and (3) the transactions velocity of money. In each application, we find that TOP fills an important gap. Finally, we observe that TOP provides a bridge that links the productive activities of an economy with its monetary payments mechanism. C1 TULANE UNIV,AB FREEMAN SCH BUSINESS,NEW ORLEANS,LA 70115. FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC. NR 22 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0148-6195 J9 J ECON BUS PD AUG-OCT PY 1993 VL 45 IS 3-4 BP 193 EP 211 DI 10.1016/0148-6195(93)90013-E PG 19 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA LV185 UT WOS:A1993LV18500002 ER PT J AU HESS, GD PORTER, RD AF HESS, GD PORTER, RD TI COMPARING INTEREST-RATE SPREADS AND MONEY GROWTH AS PREDICTORS OF OUTPUT GROWTH - GRANGER CAUSALITY IN THE SENSE GRANGER INTENDED SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS LA English DT Article ID TIME-SERIES; MODELS; INCOME C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,DIV MONETARY AFFAIRS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. CARNEGIE MELLON UNIV,PITTSBURGH,PA 15213. NR 23 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0148-6195 J9 J ECON BUS PD AUG-OCT PY 1993 VL 45 IS 3-4 BP 247 EP 268 DI 10.1016/0148-6195(93)90016-H PG 22 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA LV185 UT WOS:A1993LV18500005 ER PT J AU WEST, KD EDISON, HJ CHO, D AF WEST, KD EDISON, HJ CHO, D TI A UTILITY-BASED COMPARISON OF SOME MODELS OF EXCHANGE-RATE VOLATILITY SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID CONDITIONAL HETEROSCEDASTICITY; HETEROSKEDASTICITY; RETURNS; SAMPLE AB When estimates of variances are used to make asset allocation decisions, underestimates of population variances lead to lower expected utility than equivalent overestimates: a utility-based criterion is asymmetric, unlike standard criteria such as mean squared error. To illustrate how to estimate a utility-based criterion, we use five bilateral weekly dollar exchange rates, 1973-1989, and the corresponding pair of Eurodeposit rates. Of homoskedastic, GARCH, autoregressive and non-parametric models for the conditional variance of each exchange rate, GARCH models tend to produce the highest utility, on average. A mean squared error criterion also favors GARCH, but not as sharply. C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. TEXAS A&M UNIV SYST,DEPT ECON,COLL STN,TX 77843. RP WEST, KD (reprint author), UNIV WISCONSIN,DEPT ECON,1180 OBSERV DR,MADISON,WI 53706, USA. RI Edison, Hali/A-7550-2009; West, Kenneth/A-5693-2008 NR 26 TC 131 Z9 133 U1 0 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD AUG PY 1993 VL 35 IS 1-2 BP 23 EP 45 DI 10.1016/0022-1996(93)90003-G PG 23 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA LU603 UT WOS:A1993LU60300002 ER PT J AU HUH, CG AF HUH, CG TI CAUSALITY AND CORRELATIONS OF OUTPUT AND NOMINAL VARIABLES IN A REAL BUSINESS-CYCLE MODEL SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE MONEY OUTPUT CAUSALITY; DYNAMIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ID MONEY; PRICES; MONETARISM; SHOCKS; INCOME AB A dynamic general equilibrium economy in which output is exogenous with respect to money is calibrated and simulated following a procedure commonly used in the real business cycle literature. It is then confronted with key comovement patterns of output and nominal variables in post-war U.S. time series data. The model economy performs well in matching second-moment patterns involving output, money, and price. The model economy - with its embedded 'reverse causation' from output to money - also provides the means for carrying out a probabilistic appraisal of the observed money to output Granger causality in U.S. data. Repeated applications of the Granger causality test to simulated data lead to the finding that money causes output more often than expected. RP HUH, CG (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO,ECON RES DEPT,POB 7702,SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94120, USA. NR 29 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD AUG PY 1993 VL 32 IS 1 BP 147 EP 168 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(93)90039-I PG 22 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA MA803 UT WOS:A1993MA80300007 ER PT J AU MOORE, RR AF MOORE, RR TI ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION, REPEATED LENDING, AND CAPITAL STRUCTURE SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION; RISK; DEBT C1 TULANE UNIV,NEW ORLEANS,LA 70118. RP MOORE, RR (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,DEPT FINANCIAL IND STUDIES,DALLAS,TX, USA. NR 13 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 1 U2 1 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1993 VL 25 IS 3 BP 393 EP 409 DI 10.2307/2077770 PN 1 PG 17 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA LR769 UT WOS:A1993LR76900007 ER PT J AU MEHRA, YP AF MEHRA, YP TI THE STABILITY OF THE M2 DEMAND FUNCTION - EVIDENCE FROM AN ERROR-CORRECTION MODEL SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID MONEY RP MEHRA, YP (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND,RES DEPT,RICHMOND,VA 23261, USA. NR 9 TC 12 Z9 12 U1 2 U2 3 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1993 VL 25 IS 3 BP 455 EP 460 DI 10.2307/2077774 PN 1 PG 6 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA LR769 UT WOS:A1993LR76900011 ER PT J AU GAVIN, WT AF GAVIN, WT TI INFLATION UNCERTAINTY - INTRODUCTION SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material RP GAVIN, WT (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44101, USA. NR 2 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1993 VL 25 IS 3 BP 469 EP 474 DI 10.2307/2077718 PN 2 PG 6 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA LR770 UT WOS:A1993LR77000002 ER PT J AU BRUNNER, AD AF BRUNNER, AD TI INFLATION REGIMES AND THE SOURCES OF INFLATION UNCERTAINTY - COMMENT SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Note RP BRUNNER, AD (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV MONETARY AFFAIRS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 6 TC 10 Z9 10 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1993 VL 25 IS 3 BP 512 EP 514 DI 10.2307/2077720 PN 2 PG 3 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA LR770 UT WOS:A1993LR77000004 ER PT J AU HAUBRICH, JG AF HAUBRICH, JG TI CONTRACTING COSTS, INFLATION, AND RELATIVE PRICE VARIABILITY - COMMENT SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Note RP HAUBRICH, JG (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,RES DEPT,CLEVELAND,OH 44101, USA. NR 3 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 3 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1993 VL 25 IS 3 BP 609 EP 611 DI 10.2307/2077728 PN 2 PG 3 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA LR770 UT WOS:A1993LR77000014 ER PT J AU WILCOX, DW AF WILCOX, DW TI THE WELFARE GAIN FROM THE INTRODUCTION OF INDEXED BONDS - COMMENT SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Note RP WILCOX, DW (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV MONETARY AFFAIRS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 2 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1993 VL 25 IS 3 BP 632 EP 635 DI 10.2307/2077731 PN 2 PG 4 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA LR770 UT WOS:A1993LR77000017 ER PT J AU LABADIE, P AF LABADIE, P TI AN EQUILIBRIUM-MODEL OF NOMINAL BOND PRICES WITH INFLATION-OUTPUT CORRELATION AND STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY - COMMENT SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Note ID INTEREST-RATES; GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM; ASSET PRICES; ECONOMY; SHOCKS; MONEY RP LABADIE, P (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV MONETARY AFFAIRS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 14 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1993 VL 25 IS 3 BP 673 EP 680 DI 10.2307/2077734 PN 2 PG 8 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA LR770 UT WOS:A1993LR77000020 ER PT J AU JORDAN, JL AF JORDAN, JL TI INFLATION UNCERTAINTY - PREFACE SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material RP JORDAN, JL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44101, USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1993 VL 25 IS 3 BP R3 EP R3 PN 2 PG 1 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA LR770 UT WOS:A1993LR77000001 ER PT J AU ADAMS, G ALEXANDER, L GAGNON, J AF ADAMS, G ALEXANDER, L GAGNON, J TI GERMAN UNIFICATION AND THE EUROPEAN MONETARY-SYSTEM - A QUANTITATIVE-ANALYSIS SO JOURNAL OF POLICY MODELING LA English DT Article AB This paper uses a macroeconomic model with rational expectations to analyze issues related to German unification.1 A principal focus of the paper is the effect of unification on member countries of the European Monetary System (EMS). Under certain conditions, German unification has a contractionary effect on other EMS countries. We explore the implications of alternative German fiscal and monetary policies for EMS and other countries. C1 BOARD GOVERNORS FED RESERVE SYST,DIV INT FINANCE,STOP 22,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 7 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0161-8938 J9 J POLICY MODEL JI J. Policy Model. PD AUG PY 1993 VL 15 IS 4 BP 353 EP 392 DI 10.1016/0161-8938(93)90026-M PG 40 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA LQ346 UT WOS:A1993LQ34600001 ER PT J AU MCANDREWS, J VOITH, R AF MCANDREWS, J VOITH, R TI CAN REGIONALIZATION OF LOCAL PUBLIC-SERVICES INCREASE A REGIONS WEALTH SO JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE LA English DT Article ID GOVERNMENT BUREAUCRACY; REVEALED PREFERENCES; COMPETITION; EFFICIENCY; BEHAVIOR AB In the presence of agglomeration and congestion externalities the sequence of location choices made by firms results in an inefficient distribution of economic activity, since individual firms do not bear the congestion costs they impose on other firms. In this paper, we model the interaction of public authority service strategies and firm location choices. We show that a self-interested regional authority can effect a welfare-improving distribution of economic activity when compared with an economy without an authority or an economy with local authorities. However, we also show that the conditions under which the authority would induce a welfare enhancing distribution depends on the authority's strategic posture, as well as the nature and size of public subsidies for the authority. The conditions necessary for a regional authority to choose an efficiency enhancing strategy may be difficult to achieve. RP MCANDREWS, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,RES DEPT,10 INDEPENDENCE MALL,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 13 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 1 U2 3 PU BLACKWELL PUBLISHERS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 350 MAIN STREET, STE 6, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02148-5023 SN 0022-4146 J9 J REGIONAL SCI JI J. Reg. Sci. PD AUG PY 1993 VL 33 IS 3 BP 279 EP 301 DI 10.1111/j.1467-9787.1993.tb00227.x PG 23 WC Economics; Environmental Studies; Planning & Development SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Public Administration GA LU319 UT WOS:A1993LU31900001 ER PT J AU ISRAILEVICH, PR KUTTNER, KN AF ISRAILEVICH, PR KUTTNER, KN TI A MIXED-FREQUENCY MODEL OF REGIONAL OUTPUT SO JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE LA English DT Article AB This paper proposes a new method for estimating a monthly regional production model. The technique involves treating the region's monthly industrial output as a latent variable, which is in turn a function of capital (proxied by energy usage) and labor inputs. Annual observations on regional value added correspond to the summation of the unobservable monthly series over the 12 months, while changes in the national Industrial Production index help infer the series' month-to-month fluctuations. The model is estimated using the Kalman filter and the method of maximum likelihood. The estimates are used to compute monthly indices of regional value added for 15 individual 2-digit industries, and for the aggregate manufacturing sector in the Seventh Federal Reserve District. In a comparison of out-of-sample forecasting accuracy, the mixed-frequency model outperforms both the traditional parametric Cobb-Douglas and nonparametric Atlanta methods over the 1988-89 forecasting horizon. RP ISRAILEVICH, PR (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,RES DEPT,230 S LASALLE ST,CHICAGO,IL 60604, USA. NR 12 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 1 U2 5 PU BLACKWELL PUBLISHERS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 350 MAIN STREET, STE 6, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02148-5023 SN 0022-4146 J9 J REGIONAL SCI JI J. Reg. Sci. PD AUG PY 1993 VL 33 IS 3 BP 321 EP 342 DI 10.1111/j.1467-9787.1993.tb00229.x PG 22 WC Economics; Environmental Studies; Planning & Development SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Public Administration GA LU319 UT WOS:A1993LU31900003 ER PT J AU LEBOW, DE AF LEBOW, DE TI IMPORT COMPETITION AND WAGES - THE ROLE OF THE NONTRADABLE GOODS SECTOR SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Note AB Several investigators have studied the role of import competition in explaining wage behavior, with apparently conflicting results: Some have found a significant effect of import competition on wages in manufacturing, while others have found no such effect in the aggregate. This paper highlights the role of the nontradable goods sector-not addressed in previous studies-to reconcile these results. The model demonstrates that a fall in the relative price of tradable goods has an ambiguous effect on aggregate real wages: while the lower price of tradable goods leads to lower labor demand in the tradable sector, it also leads to higher labor demand in the nontradable sector. Empirical results show considerable support for the model when tradable goods prices are measured by import or export prices, but not when they are measured by the real exchange rate. RP LEBOW, DE (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 9 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 1 U2 2 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD AUG PY 1993 VL 75 IS 3 BP 552 EP 558 DI 10.2307/2109475 PG 7 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA NR543 UT WOS:A1993NR54300024 ER PT J AU BULLARD, J BUTLER, A AF BULLARD, J BUTLER, A TI NONLINEARITY AND CHAOS IN ECONOMIC-MODELS - IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY DECISIONS SO ECONOMIC JOURNAL LA English DT Article ID DYNAMICS; FLUCTUATIONS RP BULLARD, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ST LOUIS,ST LOUIS,MO, USA. RI Bullard, James/L-8120-2016 OI Bullard, James/0000-0002-1142-6803 NR 35 TC 15 Z9 16 U1 0 U2 3 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX4 1JF SN 0013-0133 J9 ECON J JI Econ. J. PD JUL PY 1993 VL 103 IS 419 BP 849 EP 867 DI 10.2307/2234705 PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA LM504 UT WOS:A1993LM50400002 ER PT J AU FUHRER, JC HOOKER, MA AF FUHRER, JC HOOKER, MA TI LEARNING ABOUT MONETARY REGIME SHIFTS IN AN OVERLAPPING WAGE CONTRACT-MODEL SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article ID RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS; CONVERGENCE; INFORMATION AB This paper uses stochastic simulations to explore the finite sample effects of learning during the transition to convergence in an overlapping wage contract economy. The model used is a variant of the Taylor (1980) model that includes a reaction function for the monetary authority. The contracting agents do not know the true parameters of the reaction function, although they know the rest of the model structure and parameters. They update their estimates of the reaction function parameters with each observation and re-solve the model using rational expectations. We perform pseudo Monte Carlo simulations of this model, allowing for different classes of regime shifts and different learning mechanisms, and explore the rates of convergence of parameter estimates and the effects on real and nominal variables. C1 DARTMOUTH COLL,HANOVER,NH 03755. RP FUHRER, JC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,600 ATLANTIC AVE,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. RI Fuhrer, Jeff/F-8852-2013 NR 21 TC 8 Z9 8 U1 0 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD JUL PY 1993 VL 17 IS 4 BP 531 EP 553 DI 10.1016/0165-1889(93)90045-T PG 23 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA LF373 UT WOS:A1993LF37300001 ER PT J AU BERGER, AN HANCOCK, D HUMPHREY, DB AF BERGER, AN HANCOCK, D HUMPHREY, DB TI MEASURING EFFICIENCY IN BANKING USING PROFIT-FUNCTIONS SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 6 PU AMER FINANCE ASSN PI NEW YORK PA 44 WEST FOURTH ST, STE 9-190, NEW YORK, NY 10012 SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD JUL PY 1993 VL 48 IS 3 BP 1066 EP 1067 PG 2 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA LV005 UT WOS:A1993LV00500019 ER PT J AU DAVIES, SM AF DAVIES, SM TI THE EFFECT OF BANK-HOLDING COMPANY OWNERSHIP ON BANK CAPITAL - ARE BANK-HOLDING COMPANIES SOURCES OF STRENGTH SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 3 PU AMER FINANCE ASSN PI NEW YORK PA 44 WEST FOURTH ST, STE 9-190, NEW YORK, NY 10012 SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD JUL PY 1993 VL 48 IS 3 BP 1080 EP 1081 PG 2 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA LV005 UT WOS:A1993LV00500039 ER PT J AU PASSMORE, W SPARKS, R AF PASSMORE, W SPARKS, R TI PRICE RIGIDITY OF CORE DEPOSITS SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 3 PU AMER FINANCE ASSN PI NEW YORK PA 44 WEST FOURTH ST, STE 9-190, NEW YORK, NY 10012 SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD JUL PY 1993 VL 48 IS 3 BP 1113 EP 1114 PG 2 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA LV005 UT WOS:A1993LV00500086 ER PT J AU SHAFFER, S AF SHAFFER, S TI CAN MEGAMERGERS IMPROVE BANK EFFICIENCY SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,RES DEPT,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 1 U2 5 PU AMER FINANCE ASSN PI NEW YORK PA 44 WEST FOURTH ST, STE 9-190, NEW YORK, NY 10012 SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD JUL PY 1993 VL 48 IS 3 BP 1116 EP 1117 PG 2 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA LV005 UT WOS:A1993LV00500091 ER PT J AU MCNEES, SK AF MCNEES, SK TI THE DISCOUNT RATE - THE OTHER TOOL OF MONETARY-POLICY SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article RP MCNEES, SK (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. NR 6 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 3 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JUL-AUG PY 1993 BP 3 EP 22 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA LV037 UT WOS:A1993LV03700001 ER PT J AU SIMONS, K AF SIMONS, K TI INTEREST-RATE STRUCTURE AND THE CREDIT RISK OF SWAPS SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article RP SIMONS, K (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. NR 7 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JUL-AUG PY 1993 BP 23 EP 34 PG 12 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA LV037 UT WOS:A1993LV03700002 ER PT J AU TANNENWALD, R AF TANNENWALD, R TI HOW DEPENDENT ARE NEW-ENGLAND MID-SIZED FIRMS ON THE REGIONS LARGEST BANK-HOLDING COMPANIES SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article RP TANNENWALD, R (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. NR 6 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JUL-AUG PY 1993 BP 35 EP 48 PG 14 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA LV037 UT WOS:A1993LV03700003 ER PT J AU ENGEL, CM RODRIGUES, AP AF ENGEL, CM RODRIGUES, AP TI TESTS OF MEAN-VARIANCE EFFICIENCY OF INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS SO OXFORD ECONOMIC PAPERS-NEW SERIES LA English DT Article ID TIME-VARYING COVARIANCES; DISCOUNT HOUSE PORTFOLIO; FOREIGN-EXCHANGE; PRICING THEORY; RISK; SELECTION; RETURNS; PREMIUM; MODEL AB We develop tests for mean-variance efficiency of international equity markets for ten OP countries. A Wald test that allows for time-varying variances of excess returns rejects a version of MVE. The source of the rejection is not entirely clear, so we use a minimum distance estimator to estimate the mean-variance efficiency model. While we formally reject the MVE constraints in this model, the estimated constrained asset demand equations are revealing. C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045. RP ENGEL, CM (reprint author), UNIV WASHINGTON,SEATTLE,WA 98195, USA. NR 35 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 1 PU OXFORD UNIV PRESS UNITED KINGDOM PI OXFORD PA WALTON ST JOURNALS DEPT, OXFORD, ENGLAND OX2 6DP SN 0030-7653 J9 OXFORD ECON PAP JI Oxf. Econ. Pap.-New Ser. PD JUL PY 1993 VL 45 IS 3 BP 403 EP 421 PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA MJ579 UT WOS:A1993MJ57900004 ER PT J AU HESS, GD AF HESS, GD TI ARE TAX RATES TOO VOLATILE SO SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL LA English DT Article RP HESS, GD (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC, USA. NR 28 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 2 PU UNIV NORTH CAROLINA PI CHAPEL HILL PA SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, CHAPEL HILL, NC 27514 SN 0038-4038 J9 SOUTHERN ECON J JI South. Econ. J. PD JUL PY 1993 VL 60 IS 1 BP 72 EP 88 DI 10.2307/1059932 PG 17 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA LM352 UT WOS:A1993LM35200007 ER PT J AU COOPER, R HALTIWANGER, J AF COOPER, R HALTIWANGER, J TI THE AGGREGATE IMPLICATIONS OF MACHINE REPLACEMENT - THEORY AND EVIDENCE SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID BUSINESS-CYCLE; INVESTMENT; MODELS; COST AB We study an economy in which producers incur resource costs to replace depreciated machines. The process of costly replacement and depreciation creates endogenous fluctuations in productivity, employment, and output of a single producer. We explore the spillover effects of machine replacement on other sectors of the economy and provide conditions for synchronized machine replacement by multiple independent producers. The implications of our model are generally consistent with observed monthly output, employment, and productivity fluctuations in automobile plants. Synchronization of retooling across plants within the auto industry is widespread, so that the fluctuations observed at the plant level have aggregate implications. C1 UNIV MARYLAND,DEPT ECON,COLL PK,MD 20742. FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP COOPER, R (reprint author), BOSTON UNIV,DEPT ECON,BOSTON,MA 02215, USA. NR 39 TC 50 Z9 51 U1 0 U2 6 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD JUN PY 1993 VL 83 IS 3 BP 360 EP 382 PG 23 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA LJ370 UT WOS:A1993LJ37000004 ER PT J AU FISHER, ME SEATER, JJ AF FISHER, ME SEATER, JJ TI LONG-RUN NEUTRALITY AND SUPERNEUTRALITY IN AN ARIMA FRAMEWORK SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID QUANTITY THEORY; UNITED-STATES; MONEY AB We (i) formalize long-run neutrality (LRN) and long-run superneutrality (LRSN) in the context of a bivariate ARIMA model, (ii) show how the restrictions implied by LRN and LRSN depend on the orders of integration of the variables, (iii) apply our analysis to previous work, showing how that work is related to LRN and LRSN, and (iv) provide some new evidence on LRN and LRSN. C1 N CAROLINA STATE UNIV,DEPT ECON,RALEIGH,NC 27695. RP FISHER, ME (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,MAIL STOP 69,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 22 TC 94 Z9 95 U1 2 U2 8 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD JUN PY 1993 VL 83 IS 3 BP 402 EP 415 PG 14 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA LJ370 UT WOS:A1993LJ37000006 ER PT J AU GUNTHER, JW SCHMIDT, RH AF GUNTHER, JW SCHMIDT, RH TI INCREASING THE EFFICIENCY OF POOLED ESTIMATION WITH A BLOCK-DIAGONAL COVARIANCE STRUCTURE SO ANNALS OF REGIONAL SCIENCE LA English DT Article ID MODELS AB A small number of time-series observations relative to regions precludes estimation of the entire structure of regional dependence in a pooled regression model. The resulting need for parsimonious models of regional dependence can be satisfied through the use of spatial autocorrelation structures. This article explores an alternative methodology that allows the researcher to estimate disturbance covariances for regions that are closely linked, even when the number of time-series observations is relatively low. The approach presented here shares the advantage of spatial autocorrelation structures in being parsimonious, but offers the additional advantage of relying more completely on sample information to provide estimates of dependence between regions within specified regional groups. Monte Carlo experiments suggest that block-covariance models offer substantial efficiency gains over simple heteroskedastic models. The experiments also suggest that when the number of time-series observations is limited and the correlations of disturbances between regions are small, block structures yield efficiency gains over a full-information model. C1 FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO,SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94105. RP GUNTHER, JW (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,2200 N PEARL ST,DALLAS,TX 75201, USA. NR 18 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 0 PU SPRINGER VERLAG PI NEW YORK PA 175 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0570-1864 J9 ANN REGIONAL SCI JI Ann. Reg. Sci. PD JUN PY 1993 VL 27 IS 2 BP 133 EP 142 DI 10.1007/BF01581941 PG 10 WC Environmental Studies; Geography SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Geography GA LG840 UT WOS:A1993LG84000003 ER PT J AU DEFINA, RH TAYLOR, HE AF DEFINA, RH TAYLOR, HE TI MONETARY-POLICY AND OIL PRICE SHOCKS - EMPIRICAL IMPLICATIONS OF ALTERNATIVE RESPONSES SO APPLIED ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID SUPPLY SHOCKS; ACCOMMODATION AB Large swings in the price of oil which have occurred during the past two decades have substantially affected US inflation, unemployment and economic growth. In the light of those experiences, a debate has arisen over how monetary policy should respond. This study contributes to that debate by evaluating empirically the economy's performance under three realistic monetary policy response rules. By doing so, it advances what has largely been a theoretical discussion. The policy rules studied - money growth targets, nominal GDP growth targets and interest rate targets - are evaluated by estimating how closely the resulting economic outcomes approximate an 'optimal' outcome. The optimal outcome arises when the Fed follows a well-defined optimal response rule. Of the three strategies, a nominal GDP target is found to be most desirable, while an interest rate target is least desirable. C1 FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,RES DEPT,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106. RP DEFINA, RH (reprint author), VILLANOVA UNIV,COLL COMMERCE & FINANCE,DEPT ECON,VILLANOVA,PA 19085, USA. NR 39 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 1 U2 2 PU ROUTLEDGE PI LONDON PA 11 NEW FETTER LANE, LONDON, ENGLAND EC4P 4EE SN 0003-6846 J9 APPL ECON JI Appl. Econ. PD JUN PY 1993 VL 25 IS 6 BP 777 EP 785 DI 10.1080/00036849300000132 PG 9 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA LG248 UT WOS:A1993LG24800010 ER PT J AU WARSHAWSKY, MJ MITTELSTAEDT, HF CRISTEA, C AF WARSHAWSKY, MJ MITTELSTAEDT, HF CRISTEA, C TI RECOGNIZING RETIREE HEALTH BENEFITS - THE EFFECT OF SFAS-106 SO FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB The Financial Accounting Standards Board recently issued Statement No. 106 to apply to 1993 financial statements of companies providing health benefits to retired employees. The FASB expressed its view that these benefits are a type of deferred compensation, and as such. should be accounted for on the accrual basis rather than on the cash basis required under the interim disclosure standard. Statement No. 81. More specifically, an accrued retiree health liability will be calculated as the actuarial present value of benefits attributed to employee service rendered up to the date of the financial statements. Measured benefits reflect expected increases according to an assumed health care cost trend rate, although, in certain instances, the employer is also allowed to anticipate its own intended changes in a plan's cost-sharing provisions. Expense recognition uses a benefits/years-of-service approach that attributes the employer's expected benefit obligation to each year of service in the period prior to full eligibility for benefits. Upon adoption of Statement No. 106, a firm may elect immediate or delayed recognition of the accumulated retiree health obligation. Based on word searches in 2,226 financial statements, 666 firms were identified as sponsoring retiree health plans. A large, profitable company, with unionized workers who make lifelong careers with the firm, is most likely to offer these benefits. Over 80% of firms in the glass, metals, and electric utilities industries provide retiree health benefits, whereas the percentages are significantly lower in most other industries. A model is presented here to convert the pay-as-you-go costs disclosed under Statement No. 81 to liability and expense measures that will be reported under Statement No. 106. Liability-to-cost and expense-to-cost ratios are calculated for five different prototypical demographic groups. It is assumed that the discount rate is nine percent and the health care cost trend rate is eight percent. The resulting liability-to-cost ratios range from 20 to 50, and the expense-to-cost ratios range from 3 to 9. In general, groups with a larger share of retirees have lower ratios. Of the 666 firms identified as providing retiree health benefits, 476 have the data necessary for further analysis, These firms were assigned to one of the five demographic groups on the basis of the rate of change in the number of employees. The retiree health liability and accrued expense were then estimated by multiplying the reported pay-as-you-go cost by the appropriate model ratios, and adjusting for tax effects. For the median firm in the sample, Statement No. 106 will cause and estimated eight percent decline in after-tax earnings if delayed recognition of the initial liability is chosen. If immediate recognition is elected, the median firm will suffer an immediate 73% decrease in earnings from the cumulative effect of the change, and an additional 4.7% decrease in after-tax earnings from higher retiree health expense. Immediate recognition of the after-tax liability would increase the debt/asset ratio by more than five percent. Plan sponsors in the textiles, steel, industrial equipment, electronic components, and automobile industries will be hit hardest. Comparison of our liability estimates with disclosures by 79 firms in 1991 of their liabilities show that our estimates are significantly higher. Although some of the difference may be attributed to the use by companies of ''benefit cap'' devices and some inexactness in our assignment of companies to one of the demographic groups, most of the difference seems to lie in the ultimate health care cost trend rate we used. We assumed eight percent, while most firms are apparently assuming five to seven percent. Reducing the cost trend rate in our model from eight to six percent reduces the liability by 26%. The discovery here that there is a difference between our estimates and company disclosures suggests that companies may be assuming that they (or the government) can curb medical costs. However, if medical cost trend rates are not lowered to the level of company assumptions, firms will be forced either to record additional liabilities and expenses or severely cut retiree health benefits. Because Statement No. 106 will have a considerable impact on the income statement and balance sheet, and plan sponsors have the choice of immediate or delayed recognition, it will be necessary for financial researchers and analysts to make adjustments to financial statements issued before and after adoption of the new standard when performing time-series analysis. The estimation model presented here can be used both to make such adjustments and to evaluate the assumptions employed by firms in reporting their retiree health liabilities. In addition, corporate and government policymakers should consider the magnitude of the liabilities estimated here when they consider the areas where rising health care costs must be brought under control. C1 ARIZONA STATE UNIV,TEMPE,AZ 85287. UNIV NOTRE DAME,NOTRE DAME,IN 46556. RP WARSHAWSKY, MJ (reprint author), BOARD GOVERNORS FED RESERVE SYST,WASHINGTON,DC, USA. NR 14 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 1 U2 3 PU FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT ASSOC PI TAMPA PA UNIV SOUTH FLORIDA, COLL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, 4202 E FOWLER, TAMPA, FL 33620 SN 0046-3892 J9 FINANC MANAGE JI Financ. Manage. PD SUM PY 1993 VL 22 IS 2 BP 188 EP 199 DI 10.2307/3665869 PG 12 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA MF372 UT WOS:A1993MF37200024 ER PT J AU HANNAN, TH LIANG, JN AF HANNAN, TH LIANG, JN TI INFERRING MARKET POWER FROM TIME-SERIES DATA - THE CASE OF THE BANKING FIRM SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION LA English DT Article ID CIGARETTE INDUSTRY; BEHAVIOR AB Using bank-specific data on deposit rates, this paper tests for the existence of market power in banking by means of time-series estimations. A test is developed that can reject perfect competition on the basis of the observed relationship over time between deposit rates and security rates (adjusted for operating costs). The analysis also examines whether pricing behavior differs across markets and banking products in a manner consistent with hypothesized differences. Price-taking behavior is rejected for the vast majority of banks. For the deposit category that one would expect to be more geographically limited, greater market power is found to be exercised by banks located in more concentrated markets. C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV RES & STAT,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 15 TC 31 Z9 32 U1 0 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-7187 J9 INT J IND ORGAN JI Int. J. Ind. Organ. PD JUN PY 1993 VL 11 IS 2 BP 205 EP 218 DI 10.1016/0167-7187(93)90004-V PG 14 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA LG540 UT WOS:A1993LG54000003 ER PT J AU GREEN, EJ AF GREEN, EJ TI PRIVATIZATION, THE ENTREPRENEURIAL SECTOR, AND GROWTH IN POST-COMECON ECONOMIES SO JOURNAL OF COMPARATIVE ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMIES; FIRMS C1 UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. RP GREEN, EJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55401, USA. NR 15 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 1 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0147-5967 J9 J COMP ECON JI J. Comp. Econ. PD JUN PY 1993 VL 17 IS 2 BP 407 EP 417 DI 10.1006/jcec.1993.1032 PG 11 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA LL098 UT WOS:A1993LL09800010 ER PT J AU FENN, GW KUPIEC, P AF FENN, GW KUPIEC, P TI PRUDENTIAL MARGIN POLICY IN A FUTURES-STYLE SETTLEMENT SYSTEM SO JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS LA English DT Article ID MARKETS RP FENN, GW (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV RES & STAT,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 14 TC 27 Z9 28 U1 1 U2 4 PU JOHN WILEY & SONS INC PI NEW YORK PA 605 THIRD AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10158-0012 SN 0270-7314 J9 J FUTURES MARKETS JI J. Futures Mark. PD JUN PY 1993 VL 13 IS 4 BP 389 EP 408 DI 10.1002/fut.3990130406 PG 20 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA LB814 UT WOS:A1993LB81400005 ER PT J AU LEBOW, DE AF LEBOW, DE TI THE COVARIABILITY OF PRODUCTIVITY SHOCKS ACROSS INDUSTRIES SO JOURNAL OF MACROECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID UNITED-STATES; BUSINESS AB This paper examines the covariability of industry-level productivity shocks to ask whether these shocks could drive an aggregate real business cycle model. Following Hall's insight, productivity shocks are measured by purging total factor productivity of its component that is spuriously procyclical due to market power (or labor hoarding). Then the covariability of these productivity shock series is examined in a dynamic factor-analysis model. Removing the spuriously procyclical component of TFP greatly reduces the covariability of productivity shocks, and the aggregate productivity shock estimates are only slightly procyclical. Therefore, the paper provides some direct evidence suggesting that aggregate productivity shocks are of little importance for explaining aggregate output changes. RP LEBOW, DE (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 18 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 2 PU LOUISIANA STATE UNIV PR PI BATON ROUGE PA BATON ROUGE, LA 70893 SN 0164-0704 J9 J MACROECON JI J. Macroecon. PD SUM PY 1993 VL 15 IS 3 BP 483 EP 510 DI 10.1016/0164-0704(93)90005-7 PG 28 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA LH624 UT WOS:A1993LH62400005 ER PT J AU RISSMAN, ER AF RISSMAN, ER TI WAGE GROWTH AND SECTORAL SHIFTS - PHILLIPS-CURVE REDUX SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE WAGE GROWTH; SECTORAL SHIFTS; UNEMPLOYMENT ID CYCLICAL UNEMPLOYMENT AB Nominal wages grew faster over the seventies than predicted from standard Phillips curve analyses. This paper argues that sectoral disturbances cause higher unemployment but do not lead to higher nominal wage growth. Upward wage pressures in some industries are tempered by downward adjustments in others. Only that portion of unemployment that is net of the effects of compositional shifts in the structure of labor demand influence nominal wage growth. Once unemployment has been purged of the effects of sectoral shifts, the apparent instability of the Phillips curve is resolved. This result holds for various measures of sectoral shifts. RP RISSMAN, ER (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,230 S LASALLE ST,CHICAGO,IL 60690, USA. NR 23 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD JUN PY 1993 VL 31 IS 3 BP 395 EP 416 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(93)90055-K PG 22 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA LQ126 UT WOS:A1993LQ12600007 ER PT J AU STARRMCCLUER, M AF STARRMCCLUER, M TI CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS AND SECTORAL REALLOCATION - A REEXAMINATION SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE BUSINESS FLUCTUATIONS; LABOR MOBILITY; DURATION ANALYSIS ID DURATION AB To investigate how sectoral demand shifts affect cyclical unemployment, studies by Murphy-Topel and Loungani-Rogerson examine whether labor mobility rises in recession. Results are contradictory, depending on a priori assumptions about unfinished unemployment spells. This note uses monthly data from the early 1980s and a competing risks hazard approach to overcome this problem. Results confirm the Loungani-Rogerson finding of higher respecialization in recession; however, the countercyclicality is fairly modest when estimated in an unbiased way. RP STARRMCCLUER, M (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV RES & STAT,MAIL STOP 180,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 6 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD JUN PY 1993 VL 31 IS 3 BP 417 EP 425 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(93)90056-L PG 9 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA LQ126 UT WOS:A1993LQ12600008 ER PT J AU TATOM, JA AF TATOM, JA TI THE SPURIOUS EFFECT OF PUBLIC CAPITAL FORMATION ON PRIVATE-SECTOR PRODUCTIVITY SO POLICY STUDIES JOURNAL LA English DT Article RP TATOM, JA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ST LOUIS,RES DEPT,ST LOUIS,MO, USA. NR 9 TC 8 Z9 8 U1 0 U2 0 PU POLICY STUDIES ORGANIZATION PI URBANA PA UNIV ILLINOIS 361 LINCOLN HALL, URBANA, IL 61801 SN 0190-292X J9 POLICY STUD J JI Policy Stud. J. PD SUM PY 1993 VL 21 IS 2 BP 391 EP 395 DI 10.1111/j.1541-0072.1993.tb01831.x PG 5 WC Political Science; Public Administration SC Government & Law; Public Administration GA LQ791 UT WOS:A1993LQ79100016 ER PT J AU BRUNNER, AD LOWN, CS AF BRUNNER, AD LOWN, CS TI THE EFFECTS OF LOWER RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON MONEY MARKET VOLATILITY SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 105TH ANNUAL MEETING OF THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOC CY JAN 05-07, 1993 CL ANAHEIM, CA SP AMER ECON ASSOC ID POLICY C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,RES DEPT,NEW YORK,NY 10045. RP BRUNNER, AD (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD GOVERNORS,20TH & CONSTITUT AVE NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 12 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 1 U2 6 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1993 VL 83 IS 2 BP 199 EP 205 PG 7 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA LC607 UT WOS:A1993LC60700036 ER PT J AU HANSEN, GD PRESCOTT, EC AF HANSEN, GD PRESCOTT, EC TI DID TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS CAUSE THE 1990-1991 RECESSION SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 105TH ANNUAL MEETING OF THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOC CY JAN 05-07, 1993 CL ANAHEIM, CA SP AMER ECON ASSOC ID INDIVISIBLE LABOR C1 UNIV PENN,DEPT ECON,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55401. UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. RP HANSEN, GD (reprint author), UNIV CALIF LOS ANGELES,LOS ANGELES,CA 90024, USA. NR 7 TC 38 Z9 38 U1 1 U2 4 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1993 VL 83 IS 2 BP 280 EP 286 PG 7 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA LC607 UT WOS:A1993LC60700050 ER PT J AU FRIEDMAN, BM KUTTNER, KN AF FRIEDMAN, BM KUTTNER, KN TI ANOTHER LOOK AT THE EVIDENCE ON MONEY INCOME CAUSALITY SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS LA English DT Article AB Stock and Watson's widely noted finding that money has statistically significant marginal predictive power with respect to real output (as measured by industrial production), even in a sample extending through 1985 and even in the presence of a short-term interest rate, is not robust to two plausible changes. First, extending the sample through 1990 renders money insignificant within Stock and Watson's chosen specification. Second, using the commercial paper rate in place of the Treasury bill rate renders money insignificant even in the sample ending in 1985. A positive finding is that the difference between the commercial paper rate and the Treasury bill rate does have highly significant predictive value for real output, even in the presence of money, regardless of sample. Alternative results, based on forecast error variance decomposition in a vector autoregression setting, confirm these findings by indicating a small and generally insignificant effect of money and a large and highly significant effect of the paper-bill spread on real output. C1 FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL 60604. RP FRIEDMAN, BM (reprint author), HARVARD UNIV,DEPT ECON,LITTAUER CTR 127,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138, USA. NR 22 TC 41 Z9 42 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0304-4076 J9 J ECONOMETRICS JI J. Econom. PD MAY-JUN PY 1993 VL 57 IS 1-3 BP 189 EP 203 DI 10.1016/0304-4076(93)90064-C PG 15 WC Economics; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA LE656 UT WOS:A1993LE65600009 ER PT J AU WICKENS, MR UCTUM, M AF WICKENS, MR UCTUM, M TI THE SUSTAINABILITY OF CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS - A TEST OF THE UNITED-STATES INTERTEMPORAL BUDGET CONSTRAINT SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article ID INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS AB This paper proposes a new method of determining whether a country is likely to be able to sustain its current account deficits without defaulting on its debt. It is based on the notion of the national intertemporal budget constraint (IBC) which is derived from a forward solution of the balance payments identity. Although the problem is formally similar to that considered in the literature on the government IBC, a more general solution is obtained by allowing the primary deficit to be endogenous instead of exogenous. It is shown that the existence of negative feedback from net indebtedness to the primary deficit - a wealth effect - is sufficient. This method supplants the ad hoc approach previously adopted in the current account literature. Whilst many of the same variables appear, a formal structure for analysing them is provided. C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045. RP WICKENS, MR (reprint author), LONDON BUSINESS SCH,REGENTS PK,LONDON NW1 4SA,ENGLAND. NR 17 TC 40 Z9 40 U1 0 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD MAY PY 1993 VL 17 IS 3 BP 423 EP 441 DI 10.1016/0165-1889(93)90005-D PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA KW473 UT WOS:A1993KW47300005 ER PT J AU MILLER, PJ AF MILLER, PJ TI OPTIMAL INCOME-TAX IN A MONETARY ECONOMY SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article ID TAXATION AB This study examines the shape of an optimal income tax schedule in a monetary economy. In equilibrium, money's role is to allocate resources across generations, while a tax-transfer scheme serves as a form of social insurance. It is found that the optimal real income tax with money can be progressive. RP MILLER, PJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,250 MARQUETTE AVE,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480, USA. NR 10 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD MAY PY 1993 VL 17 IS 3 BP 443 EP 465 DI 10.1016/0165-1889(93)90006-E PG 23 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA KW473 UT WOS:A1993KW47300006 ER PT J AU ALTIG, D DAVIS, SJ AF ALTIG, D DAVIS, SJ TI BORROWING CONSTRAINTS AND 2-SIDED ALTRUISM WITH AN APPLICATION TO SOCIAL-SECURITY SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article ID INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSFERS; LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS AB We develop the implications of borrowing constraints and two-sided altruism in an overlapping generations framework with agents who live three periods. Our analysis identifies six equilibrium patterns of intertemporal and intergenerational linkages in the no-loan economy, one of which corresponds to the traditional life-cycle model, and one of which corresponds to Barro's dynastic model. Novel linkage patterns involve parent-to-child transfers early in the life cycle, child-to-parent gifts late in the life cycle, or both. Capital accumulation behavior and the consequences of fiscal policy interventions depend, often critically, on which linkage pattern prevails. We show, for example, how unfunded social security interventions can significantly depress aggregate capital accumulation, even when every generation is linked to its successor generation by altruistic transfers. We also derive, a non-Ricardian neutrality result for gift motive economies that holds whether or not borrowing constraints bind and whether or not parent and child are connected by an operative altruism motive at all points in the life cycle. C1 UNIV CHICAGO,1101 E 58TH ST,CHICAGO,IL 60637. FED RESERV BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH. FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,NATL BUR ECON RES,CHICAGO,IL. NR 29 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD MAY PY 1993 VL 17 IS 3 BP 467 EP 494 DI 10.1016/0165-1889(93)90007-F PG 28 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA KW473 UT WOS:A1993KW47300007 ER PT J AU GAGNON, JE AF GAGNON, JE TI EXCHANGE-RATE VARIABILITY AND THE LEVEL OF INTERNATIONAL-TRADE SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID UNCERTAINTY; HYSTERESIS AB Theoretical research has shown that under reasonable assumptions exchange rate variability ought to depress the level of trade. This paper builds a theoretical model designed to exaggerate the negative effect of exchange rate variability on trade in order to calibrate an upper bound to the potential size of this effect. Numerical analysis demonstrates that exchange rate variability of the magnitude currently observed among industrial countries has an insignificant effect on the level of trade. This result is robust with respect to a wide range of parameter values and with respect to reasonable extensions of the model. RP GAGNON, JE (reprint author), BOARD GOVERNORS FED RESERVE SYST,DIV INT FINANCE,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 13 TC 40 Z9 41 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD MAY PY 1993 VL 34 IS 3-4 BP 269 EP 287 DI 10.1016/0022-1996(93)90050-8 PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA LB819 UT WOS:A1993LB81900004 ER PT J AU MULLIN, JJ AF MULLIN, JJ TI THE EQUIVALENCE OF TARIFFS-CUM-SUBSIDIES AND OFFICIAL EXCHANGE-RATE DEVALUATIONS UNDER DUAL EXCHANGE MARKETS SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID ANTICIPATED DEVALUATIONS AB This paper demonstrates that, under dual exchange markets, explicit tariffs-cum-subsidies on merchandise transactions raise the spread between the parallel and official exchange rates and, thereby, create implicit tariffs-cum-subsidies on capital account transactions. This implies that merchandise tariffs-cum-subsidies assume more of the properties of official exchange rate devaluations under dual exchange markets than under unified exchange markets. The two policies are equivalent when there is a one-to-one correspondence between transactions that are subject to merchandise tariffs-cum-subsidies and transactions that are channeled by law into the official exchange market. RP MULLIN, JJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,33 LIBERTY ST,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 11 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD MAY PY 1993 VL 34 IS 3-4 BP 325 EP 339 DI 10.1016/0022-1996(93)90053-Z PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA LB819 UT WOS:A1993LB81900007 ER PT J AU MEADE, EE AF MEADE, EE TI NORTH-AMERICAN FREE-TRADE - ISSUES AND RECOMMENDATIONS - HUFBAUER,GC, SCHOTT,JJ SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Book Review RP MEADE, EE (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD MAY PY 1993 VL 34 IS 3-4 BP 393 EP 395 DI 10.1016/0022-1996(93)90060-B PG 3 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA LB819 UT WOS:A1993LB81900014 ER PT J AU FEINMAN, J AF FEINMAN, J TI ESTIMATING THE OPEN MARKET DESKS DAILY REACTION FUNCTION SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article RP FEINMAN, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,DIV MONETARY AFFAIRS,WASHINGTON,DC, USA. NR 9 TC 35 Z9 35 U1 1 U2 2 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD MAY PY 1993 VL 25 IS 2 BP 231 EP 247 DI 10.2307/2077839 PG 17 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA LB057 UT WOS:A1993LB05700007 ER PT J AU TALLMAN, EW AF TALLMAN, EW TI THE SEPARATION OF COMMERCIAL AND INVESTMENT BANKING - THE GLASS STEAGALL ACT REVISITED AND RECONSIDERED - BENSTON,GJ SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Book Review RP TALLMAN, EW (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,ATLANTA,GA, USA. NR 3 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 1 U2 1 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD MAY PY 1993 VL 25 IS 2 BP 293 EP 295 DI 10.2307/2077843 PG 3 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA LB057 UT WOS:A1993LB05700011 ER PT J AU VOITH, R AF VOITH, R TI CHANGING CAPITALIZATION OF CBD-ORIENTED TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS - EVIDENCE FROM PHILADELPHIA, 1970-1988 SO JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY-VALUES; LAND VALUES; EMPLOYMENT; MODELS; CHOICE; TESTS RP VOITH, R (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,10 INDEPENDENCE MALL,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 21 TC 67 Z9 68 U1 1 U2 5 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0094-1190 J9 J URBAN ECON JI J. Urban Econ. PD MAY PY 1993 VL 33 IS 3 BP 361 EP 376 DI 10.1006/juec.1993.1021 PG 16 WC Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA KZ469 UT WOS:A1993KZ46900005 ER PT J AU PULKKINEN, TE ROSENGREN, ES AF PULKKINEN, TE ROSENGREN, ES TI LESSONS FROM THE RHODE-ISLAND BANKING CRISIS SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB The failure of the Rhode Island Share and Deposit Indemnity Corporation (RISDIC), a private insurance fund, and the closure of its 45 remaining member institutions froze the accounts of 300,000 individuals and 10 percent of all deposits in the state. While the closure of two institutions triggered RISDIC's demise, flaws in both design and management had set the stage for failure and are the focus of this article. The authors group RISDIC's problems into three categories: risk concentrations, control of the insurance fund by those it insured, and RISDIC's inadequate regulatory oversight of members. Concentrations of risks abounded. Both the fund and the geographic area it covered were small, and member institutions lent heavily in real estate. The fund's failure to sufficiently reserve against this exposure was particularly problematic: RISDIC could not have covered major losses at any one of its 10 largest members. RISDIC also neglected standard regulatory practices in supervising member institutions. Adequate deposit insurance rests on several fundamentals, among them diversification, independent supervision, disclosure of weaknesses, and adequate reserves; RISDIC managed to delay but not avoid the consequences of neglecting these principles. C1 FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,RES DEPT,BOSTON,MA 02106. RP PULKKINEN, TE (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,DEPT MONITORING,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. NR 0 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 0 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAY-JUN PY 1993 BP 3 EP 12 PG 10 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA LN396 UT WOS:A1993LN39600001 ER PT J AU RANDALL, RE AF RANDALL, RE TI LESSONS FROM NEW-ENGLAND BANK FAILURES SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB The rapid deterioration in the condition of New England banks during the late 1980s, following a period of robust growth and prosperity in the region, provides valuable lessons relevant to efforts to protect the banking system from future shocks. This article demonstrates the timing of events leading to the failure of 87 New England banks, It emphasizes the development of abnormal risk concentrations, an eventual change in the economic and psychological underpinnings of these risks, and the rapid transition from apparently healthy banks to failure. The author finds that most bankers ceased aggressive risk-taking at the first sign of emerging credit problems, and that bank supervisors generally reacted promptly as credit weaknesses emerged but did not act against the earlier risk concentrations. Furthermore, capital ratios did not deteriorate until some time after credit problems emerged. RP RANDALL, RE (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. NR 15 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 0 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAY-JUN PY 1993 BP 13 EP 38 PG 26 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA LN396 UT WOS:A1993LN39600002 ER PT J AU MAYER, CJ AF MAYER, CJ TI TAXES, INCOME-DISTRIBUTION, AND THE REAL-ESTATE CYCLE - WHY ALL HOUSES DO NOT APPRECIATE AT THE SAME RATE SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID PRICE INDEXES; MARKET AB Changes in house prices are generally reported on an aggregate basis. This article suggests that within a metropolitan area, high-value and low-value homes appreciate at different rates. Overall, the author's results indicate that appreciation rates are more volatile for high-priced homes than for less expensive homes around the real estate cycle. The different rates of price appreciation are partly explained by changes in the user cost of owning a home. Cyclical factors also play a part. Furthermore, the author found that changes in the prices of lower-value homes have a contemporaneous effect on high-end home prices, while the opposite is not true. His results suggest that in a house-price boom, first-time homebuyers may be in a better position to buy a low-priced home than the reported, aggregate price index suggests. RP MAYER, CJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. NR 19 TC 28 Z9 28 U1 0 U2 8 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAY-JUN PY 1993 BP 39 EP 50 PG 12 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA LN396 UT WOS:A1993LN39600003 ER PT J AU COGLEY, T AF COGLEY, T TI EMPIRICAL-EVIDENCE ON NOMINAL WAGE AND PRICE FLEXIBILITY SO QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID REAL BUSINESS-CYCLE; UNITED-STATES; MONEY; OUTPUT; DEMAND; RATES AB This paper tests a necessary condition for the neutrality of money in a framework that imposes only weak restrictions on the money supply process. It extends Bernanke's [1986] work by weakening the set of just-identifying restrictions and by providing a statistical test of the overidentifying restrictions. Instead of specifying a structural model to identify primitive shocks, I deduce the impact effects of structural money shocks under the neutrality hypothesis and then test whether the system maintains neutrality as it propagates these impact effects. The tests reject neutrality for both the M1 and the monetary base. RP COGLEY, T (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO,SAN FRANCISCO,CA, USA. NR 25 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 1 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0033-5533 J9 Q J ECON JI Q. J. Econ. PD MAY PY 1993 VL 108 IS 2 BP 475 EP 491 DI 10.2307/2118340 PG 17 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA LE475 UT WOS:A1993LE47500008 ER PT J AU HAKKIO, CS AF HAKKIO, CS TI THE DOLLARS INTERNATIONAL ROLE SO CONTEMPORARY POLICY ISSUES LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT GENERAL SESSION OF THE 67TH ANNUAL CONF OF THE WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INTERNATIONAL CY JUL 10, 1992 CL SAN FRANCISCO, CA SP W ECON ASSOC INT AB The dollar was the dominant international currency following World War II. However, as the international economy has changed in dramatic ways, the dollar's international role also has changed. Although the dollar's role has declined, it remains an important international currency. Furthermore, the world does not appear to be moving toward a tripolar monetary system. ne dollar and the deutsche mark, not the yen, are the most important international currencies. The dollar's role has declined due to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973, the decline in the relative importance of the United States, and deregulation of the world financial market. RP HAKKIO, CS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK KANSAS CITY,KANSAS CITY,MO, USA. NR 15 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 1 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 SN 0735-0007 J9 CONTEMP POLICY ISSUE PD APR PY 1993 VL 11 IS 2 BP 62 EP 75 PG 14 WC Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA LA440 UT WOS:A1993LA44000005 ER PT J AU JORDAN, JL MELTZER, AH SCHWARTZ, AJ SARGENT, TJ AF JORDAN, JL MELTZER, AH SCHWARTZ, AJ SARGENT, TJ TI MILTON, MONEY, AND MISCHIEF - SYMPOSIUM AND ARTICLES IN HONOR OF FRIEDMAN,MILTON 80TH BIRTHDAY SO ECONOMIC INQUIRY LA English DT Editorial Material RP JORDAN, JL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44101, USA. NR 1 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 1 U2 1 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 SN 0095-2583 J9 ECON INQ JI Econ. Inq. PD APR PY 1993 VL 31 IS 2 BP 197 EP 212 PG 16 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA KY149 UT WOS:A1993KY14900004 ER PT J AU SICHEL, DE AF SICHEL, DE TI BUSINESS-CYCLE ASYMMETRY - A DEEPER LOOK SO ECONOMIC INQUIRY LA English DT Article ID ECONOMIC TIME-SERIES AB This paper distinguishes two types of asymmetry in business cycles: deepness and steepness. Deepness is defined as the characteristic that troughs are further below trend than peaks are above. Most previous research has focused exclusively on steepness, which refers to cycles in which contractions are steeper than expansions. A test for deepness is proposed and applied to U.S. post-war quarterly unemployment, real GNP, and industrial production. Evidence of deepness is found for unemployment and industrial production, while the evidence for real GNP is weaker Previous evidence of steepness in unemployment is confirmed. RP SICHEL, DE (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 28 TC 198 Z9 201 U1 0 U2 2 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 SN 0095-2583 J9 ECON INQ JI Econ. Inq. PD APR PY 1993 VL 31 IS 2 BP 224 EP 236 PG 13 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA KY149 UT WOS:A1993KY14900006 ER PT J AU GERTLER, M GILCHRIST, S AF GERTLER, M GILCHRIST, S TI THE CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR OF SHORT-TERM BUSINESS LENDING - IMPLICATIONS FOR FINANCIAL PROPAGATION MECHANISMS SO EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 7TH ANNUAL CONGRESS OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOC CY AUG 29-31, 1992 CL DUBLIN, IRELAND SP EUROPEAN ECON ASSOC C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC. RP GERTLER, M (reprint author), NYU,FAC ARTS & SCI,269 MERCER ST,NEW YORK,NY 10003, USA. NR 18 TC 16 Z9 16 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0014-2921 J9 EUR ECON REV JI Eur. Econ. Rev. PD APR PY 1993 VL 37 IS 2-3 BP 623 EP 631 DI 10.1016/0014-2921(93)90052-C PG 9 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA KY555 UT WOS:A1993KY55500040 ER PT J AU HALLMAN, J AF HALLMAN, J TI REVIEW OF S-PLUS SO JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS LA English DT Software Review RP HALLMAN, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,RES DEPT,POB 6387,CLEVELAND,OH 44101, USA. NR 1 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 0 PU JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD PI W SUSSEX PA BAFFINS LANE CHICHESTER, W SUSSEX, ENGLAND PO19 1UD SN 0883-7252 J9 J APPL ECONOM JI J. Appl. Econom. PD APR-JUN PY 1993 VL 8 IS 2 BP 213 EP 219 DI 10.1002/jae.3950080208 PG 7 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA LE465 UT WOS:A1993LE46500007 ER PT J AU BERGER, AN HUNTER, WC TIMME, SG AF BERGER, AN HUNTER, WC TIMME, SG TI THE EFFICIENCY OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS - A REVIEW AND PREVIEW OF RESEARCH PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article ID UNITED-STATES BANKS; PRODUCT MIX ECONOMIES; TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE; COMMERCIAL-BANKS; COST EFFICIENCY; SCALE ECONOMIES; LOAN INDUSTRY; CREDIT UNIONS; SAVINGS; SCOPE AB This introductory article reviews past research on the topic of financial institution efficiency, surveys the contributions in this special issue, and suggests how future research on this important topic might proceed. C1 FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,ATLANTA,GA 30303. GEORGIA STATE UNIV,ATLANTA,GA 30303. RP BERGER, AN (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,MAIL STOP 180,20TH & C STS NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 72 TC 211 Z9 230 U1 2 U2 25 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD APR PY 1993 VL 17 IS 2-3 BP 221 EP 249 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(93)90030-H PG 29 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA LD288 UT WOS:A1993LD28800001 ER PT J AU MESTER, LJ AF MESTER, LJ TI EFFICIENCY IN THE SAVINGS AND LOAN INDUSTRY SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article AB The stochastic econometric cost frontier approach is modified to investigate efficiency in mutual and stock S & Ls using 1991 data on U.S. S & Ls. This methodology allows both the cost frontier and error structures to differ between S & Ls of these two ownership forms. A likelihood ratio test indicates that the data support this unrestricted model, which implies efficient mutual and stock S & Ls use different production technologies. Various measures of inefficiency show that on average stock S & Ls are less efficient than mutual S & Ls. The second part of the article relates the inefficiency measures to several correlates. C1 UNIV PENN,WHARTON SCH,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. RP MESTER, LJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,RES DEPT,10 INDEPENDENCE MALL,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 18 TC 115 Z9 117 U1 1 U2 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD APR PY 1993 VL 17 IS 2-3 BP 267 EP 286 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(93)90032-9 PG 20 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA LD288 UT WOS:A1993LD28800003 ER PT J AU BAUER, PW HANCOCK, D AF BAUER, PW HANCOCK, D TI THE EFFICIENCY OF THE FEDERAL-RESERVE IN PROVIDING CHECK PROCESSING SERVICES SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article ID BANKING; SCALE; ECONOMIES AB We examine the efficiency and productivity of check processing offices of the Federal Reserve System using a variety of frontier estimation techniques. Although there is broad agreement among the techniques about the relative efficiency rankings of offices, the average level of efficiency varies considerably depending on the technique chosen. Similar to other studies of financial services, we find that measured cost inefficiency (deviations from the frontier) dominates scale inefficiency. We find no evidence of significant technological progress over the main sample period. C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP BAUER, PW (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,RES DEPT,POB 8387,CLEVELAND,OH 44114, USA. NR 26 TC 25 Z9 26 U1 1 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD APR PY 1993 VL 17 IS 2-3 BP 287 EP 311 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(93)90033-A PG 25 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA LD288 UT WOS:A1993LD28800004 ER PT J AU BERGER, AN HANCOCK, D HUMPHREY, DB AF BERGER, AN HANCOCK, D HUMPHREY, DB TI BANK EFFICIENCY DERIVED FROM THE PROFIT FUNCTION SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article ID PRODUCT MIX ECONOMIES; SCALE ECONOMIES; COST EFFICIENCY; FINANCIAL FIRM; DECOMPOSITION; MODEL AB Both input and output inefficiencies are derived from a profit function for US banks. These inefficiencies are decomposed into allocative and technical components in a new way using shadow prices. About half of all potential variable profits are estimated to be lost to inefficiency. Most inefficiencies are from deficient output revenues, rather than excessive input costs. Larger banks are found to be more efficient than smaller banks, which may offset scale diseconomies found elsewhere. Tests of a new concept, 'optimal scope economies', suggest that joint production is optimal for most banks, but that specialization is optimal for others. C1 FLORIDA STATE UNIV,TALLAHASSEE,FL 32306. RP BERGER, AN (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,MAIL STOP 180,20TH & C STS NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 47 TC 163 Z9 169 U1 9 U2 30 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD APR PY 1993 VL 17 IS 2-3 BP 317 EP 347 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(93)90035-C PG 31 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA LD288 UT WOS:A1993LD28800006 ER PT J AU LOVELL, CA BAUER, P AF LOVELL, CA BAUER, P TI BANK EFFICIENCY DERIVED FROM THE PROFIT FUNCTION - OUTPUT ALLOCATIVE AND TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY OF BANKS - COMMENTS SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Discussion C1 FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH. RP LOVELL, CA (reprint author), UNIV N CAROLINA,CHAPEL HILL,NC 27514, USA. NR 0 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 1 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD APR PY 1993 VL 17 IS 2-3 BP 367 EP 370 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(93)90037-E PG 4 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA LD288 UT WOS:A1993LD28800008 ER PT J AU MCALLISTER, PH MCMANUS, D AF MCALLISTER, PH MCMANUS, D TI RESOLVING THE SCALE EFFICIENCY PUZZLE IN BANKING SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article ID UNITED-STATES BANKS; FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION AB Most previous empirical research on scale efficiency in banking has found increasing returns to scale only among relatively small banks, and decreasing returns to scale among larger banks. The present study shows that these results were biased by problems in the statistical techniques used and by the fact that the models ignored an important input required for the intermediation process, financial capital. When the econometric problems are solved and the relationship among size, diversification. and risk is properly accounted for, there is strong evidence of increasing returns to scale for banks up to about $500 million in total assets and approximately constant returns for larger banks. C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,MAILSTOP 180,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 21 TC 193 Z9 197 U1 1 U2 11 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD APR PY 1993 VL 17 IS 2-3 BP 389 EP 405 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(93)90039-G PG 17 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA LD288 UT WOS:A1993LD28800010 ER PT J AU MESTER, LJ SEIFORD, LM AF MESTER, LJ SEIFORD, LM TI BANKING EFFICIENCY IN THE NORDIC COUNTRIES - RESOLVING THE SCALE EFFICIENCY PUZZLE IN BANKING - DISCUSSION SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Discussion C1 UNIV MASSACHUSETTS,AMHERST,MA 01003. RP MESTER, LJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,PHILADELPHIA,PA, USA. NR 0 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 1 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD APR PY 1993 VL 17 IS 2-3 BP 407 EP 410 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(93)90040-K PG 4 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA LD288 UT WOS:A1993LD28800011 ER PT J AU RHOADES, SA AF RHOADES, SA TI EFFICIENCY EFFECTS OF HORIZONTAL (IN-MARKET) BANK MERGERS SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article AB This study conducts tests to determine whether banks involved in horizontal mergers achieve efficiency improvements relative to other firms. The analysis covers 898 bank mergers from 1981 to 1986. Efficiency is measured by various expense ratios. The results based on OLS and logit analysis are robust. They indicate that during 1981-1986, horizontal bank mergers did not yield efficiency gains. Notably, the findings are based on the mergers believed to be most likely to result in efficiency gains, i.e., they are horizontal mergers, the firms exhibit considerable deposit overlap, and the acquiring firms are, on average, more efficient than the acquired. RP RHOADES, SA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,MAILSTOP 149,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 12 TC 56 Z9 56 U1 0 U2 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD APR PY 1993 VL 17 IS 2-3 BP 411 EP 422 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(93)90041-B PG 12 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA LD288 UT WOS:A1993LD28800012 ER EF