FN Thomson Reuters Web of Science™ VR 1.0 PT J AU Cassou, SP Lansing, KJ AF Cassou, SP Lansing, KJ TI Fiscal policy and productivity growth in the OECD SO CANADIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS-REVUE CANADIENNE D ECONOMIQUE LA English DT Article ID SLOWDOWN; RETURNS AB We use a simple endogenous growth model with productive public capital to investigate the degree to which observed fiscal policies in eight OECD countries can account for slowdowns in the growth rates of aggregate labour productivity since 1970, In model simulations, we find that none of the observed public capital policies can generate slowdowns of sufficient magnitude to match those in the data. For most countries in our sample, a simulation that combines the observed public capital policy with the observed tax policy does a better job of accounting for the slowdown than either policy in isolation. C1 Kansas State Univ, Manhattan, KS 66506 USA. Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, San Francisco, CA USA. RP Cassou, SP (reprint author), Kansas State Univ, Manhattan, KS 66506 USA. NR 20 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 2 PU UNIV TORONTO PRESS INC PI TORONTO PA JOURNALS DIVISION, 5201 DUFFERIN ST, DOWNSVIEW, TORONTO, ON M3H 5T8, CANADA SN 0008-4085 J9 CAN J ECON JI Can. J. Econ.-Rev. Can. Econ. PD NOV PY 1999 VL 32 IS 5 BP 1215 EP 1226 DI 10.2307/136478 PG 12 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 264WH UT WOS:000084205600006 ER PT J AU Tetlow, R AF Tetlow, R TI Inflation targeting: Lessons from the international experience SO CANADIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS-REVUE CANADIENNE D ECONOMIQUE LA English DT Book Review C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Tetlow, R (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU UNIV TORONTO PRESS INC PI TORONTO PA JOURNALS DIVISION, 5201 DUFFERIN ST, DOWNSVIEW, TORONTO, ON M3H 5T8, CANADA SN 0008-4085 J9 CAN J ECON JI Can. J. Econ.-Rev. Can. Econ. PD NOV PY 1999 VL 32 IS 5 BP 1334 EP 1338 DI 10.2307/136486 PG 5 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 264WH UT WOS:000084205600013 ER PT J AU Cole, HL Rogerson, R AF Cole, HL Rogerson, R TI Can the Mortensen-Pissarides matching model match the business-cycle facts? SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID JOB DESTRUCTION; CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR; LABOR-MARKET; SEARCH; UNEMPLOYMENT; TURNOVER; CREATION; REALLOCATION; EFFICIENCY; FLOWS AB We examine whether the Mortensen-Pissarides matching model can account for the business-cycle facts on employment, job creation, and job destruction. A novel feature of our analysis is its emphasis on the reduced-form implications of the matching model. Our main finding is that the model can account for the business-cycle facts, but only if the average duration of a nonemployment spell is relatively high-about 9 months or longer. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. Univ Penn, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. RP Cole, HL (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. NR 28 TC 63 Z9 63 U1 1 U2 5 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 USA SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD NOV PY 1999 VL 40 IS 4 BP 933 EP 959 DI 10.1111/1468-2354.00048 PG 27 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 253RL UT WOS:000083569500008 ER PT J AU Taber, A Wallace, N AF Taber, A Wallace, N TI A matching model with bounded holdings of indivisible money SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID PRICES; SEARCH AB Recent versions of pairwise random matching models of money with divisible and perishable goods are amended to allow individuals to hold more than one unit of an indivisible asset. The asset resembles a fiat asset, except that nominal holdings of it yield a small amount of utility. There is a general upper bound on the number of units of the asset that individuals can hold. A steady state with trade is shown to exist. The model is applied to study numerically the effect on welfare of the degree to which the asset is divisible. C1 Penn State Univ, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. NR 13 TC 16 Z9 16 U1 0 U2 3 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 USA SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD NOV PY 1999 VL 40 IS 4 BP 961 EP 984 DI 10.1111/1468-2354.00049 PG 24 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 253RL UT WOS:000083569500009 ER PT J AU Zhou, RL AF Zhou, RL TI Individual and aggregate real balances in a random-matching model SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID MONEY; PRICES; SEARCH AB This article investigates the characteristics of stationary single-price equilibrium in a monetary random-matching model where agents can hold an arbitrary amount of divisible money and where production is costly. At such an equilibrium, agents' money holdings are endogenously determined and uniformly bounded. A refinement of weakly undominated strategies is argued to be necessary. It is shown that a continuum of single-price equilibria indexed by the aggregate real-money balance exists if one such equilibrium exists. Equilibria with different money-holdings upper bounds, hence different distributions, but with identical aggregate real-money balances can coexist. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Chicago, IL 60604 USA. RP Zhou, RL (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Chicago, IL 60604 USA. NR 10 TC 38 Z9 38 U1 0 U2 2 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 USA SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD NOV PY 1999 VL 40 IS 4 BP 1009 EP 1038 DI 10.1111/1468-2354.00051 PG 30 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 253RL UT WOS:000083569500011 ER PT J AU Henderson, DW Kim, J AF Henderson, DW Kim, J TI Exact utilities under alternative monetary rules in a simple macro model with optimizing agents SO INTERNATIONAL TAX AND PUBLIC FINANCE LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference Honoring the Scholarly Contributions of Robert Flood on Floodfest CY JAN 15-16, 1999 CL WASHINGTON, D.C. DE monetary policy; stabilization; sticky wages; sticky prices; wage contracts; price contracts ID TARGETING NOMINAL INCOME AB We construct an optimizing-agent model of a closed economy which is simple enough that we can use it to make exact utility calculations. There is a stabilization problem because there are one-period nominal contracts for wages, or prices, or both and shocks that are unknown at the time when contracts are signed. We evaluate alternative monetary policy rules using the utility function of the representative agent. Fully optimal policy can attain the Pareto-optimal equilibrium. Fully optimal policy is contrasted with both 'naive' and 'sophisticated' simple rules that involve, respectively, complete stabilization and optimal stabilization of one variable or a combination two variables. With wage contracts, outcomes depend crucially on whether there are also price contracts. For example, if labor supply is relatively inelastic, for productivity shocks, nominal income stabilization yields higher welfare when there are no price contracts. However, with price contracts, outcomes are independent of whether there are wage contracts, except, of course, for the nominal wage. C1 Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Univ Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA. RP Henderson, DW (reprint author), Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA. EM dale.henderson@frb.gov; jk9n@virginia.edu NR 16 TC 8 Z9 8 U1 0 U2 2 PU SPRINGER PI DORDRECHT PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0927-5940 EI 1573-6970 J9 INT TAX PUBLIC FINAN JI Int. Tax Public Financ. PD NOV PY 1999 VL 6 IS 4 BP 507 EP 535 DI 10.1023/A:1008797231729 PG 29 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 256LH UT WOS:000083726400005 ER PT J AU Amel, DF Hannan, TH AF Amel, DF Hannan, TH TI Establishing banking market definitions through estimation of residual deposit supply equations SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE market definition; residual demand; banking ID RIGIDITY AB We employ a procedure suggested by the Department of Justice's Merger Guidelines (but never before applied to banking) to determine whether nonbank financial institutions should be included as participants in defining the product market relevant to antitrust analyses of proposed bank mergers. We estimate bank "residual supply" relationships indicating the responsiveness of small-scale deposit funds supplied by consumers to the level of interest rates offered for such deposits. Estimated elasticities of residual deposit supply are quite small, implying that only commercial banks should be included as participants in the "antitrust market" relevant to proposed bank mergers. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification: D4; L1; L4; G2. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Amel, DF (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 12 TC 14 Z9 14 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD NOV PY 1999 VL 23 IS 11 BP 1667 EP 1690 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(99)00018-7 PG 24 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 244VA UT WOS:000083070400006 ER PT J AU Humpage, OF AF Humpage, OF TI US intervention: Assessing the probability of success SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID FOREIGN-EXCHANGE INTERVENTION; INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE; MONETARY-POLICY; MARKET; RATES; VOLATILITY AB The martingale nature of exchange rate changes insures that intervention often will appear successful in terms of altering or moderating exchange rate movements, even if intervention were ineffective and undertaken randomly. I provide evidence that intervention generally lacks forecast value, except under a weak leaning-against-the-wind criterion. When I condition the probability of success by various aspects or techniques of intervention, however, I find that central-bank coordination and, to a lesser extent, large interventions increases the probability of success. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Dept Res, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. RP Humpage, OF (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Dept Res, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. NR 27 TC 35 Z9 35 U1 0 U2 1 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1999 VL 31 IS 4 BP 731 EP 747 DI 10.2307/2601220 PG 17 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 250HW UT WOS:000083383800004 ER PT J AU Little, JS Olivei, GP AF Little, JS Olivei, GP TI Rethinking the international monetary system: An overview SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB When the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston chose "Rethinking the International Monetary System" as the topic for its 43rd Economic Conference, it was clear that the worst international financial crisis in decades bad caused tremors within the economics profession and the policymaking establishment. The miracle countries of Asia had suffered sharp currency devaluation and deep economic downturns, the turmoil had spilled over into Russia and Latin America, and a severe liquidity crisis had briefly threatened banking systems in the advanced countries. Not surprisingly, then, the events of the 1990s provoked many proposals for reform. But these proposals reflected differing, even contradictory views about the underlying problems and their solutions, and they did not always reveal a systemic approach to reform. In hopes of clarifying some of these issues, the Bank asked conference participants to examine key parts of current international arrangements: the eclectic exchange rate system, international capital markets, the international lender of last resort, and policy coordination. We also asked them to consider how these critical components interact. We hoped that adopting a systemic approach would help to narrow the differences among economic policymakers and identify priorities for reform. Our ultimate goal was to define ways to enhance the benefits of global integration, while limiting its costs. This article summarizes the participants' answers to our questions. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Little, JS (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 1 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD NOV-DEC PY 1999 BP 3 EP + PG 23 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 276MG UT WOS:000084881100001 ER PT J AU Simons, K AF Simons, K TI Should US investors invest overseas? SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Interest in foreign investment has been high among U.S. investors in recent years. Many investors know that geographic diversification can improve investment returns without increasing risk. However, whether or not to invest abroad and, if so, how much weight to give to foreign investment, are questions often subject to heated debate. Whether or not to invest abroad is part of the larger question of how to assemble a portfolio that is appropriate for the investor's circumstances and degree of risk tolerance. This article examines the question of international investing within the broader context of using portfolio optimization by individual investors. The author illustrates the concept by constructing portfolios from index funds based on major asset classes, including two foreign indices, European and Pacific, in addition to domestic stocks, bonds, and Treasury bills. She uses different measures of historical returns on these assets to construct optimal portfolios for various levels of risk; she finds that the results of portfolio optimization are highly sensitive to input parameters and, thus, to the way historical returns are measured. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Simons, K (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 5 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD NOV-DEC PY 1999 BP 29 EP + PG 14 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 276MG UT WOS:000084881100002 ER PT J AU Kroszner, RS Strahan, PE AF Kroszner, RS Strahan, PE TI What drives deregulation? Economics and politics of the relaxation of bank branching restrictions SO QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID GLASS-STEAGALL ACT; INTERSTATE BANKING; UNITED-STATES; COMPETITION; INDUSTRY; MODEL AB This paper investigates private-interest, public-interest, and political-institutional theories of regulatory change to analyze state-level deregulation of bank branching restrictions. Using a hazard model, we find that interest group factors related to the relative strength of potential winners (large banks and small, bank-dependent firms) and losers (small banks and the rival insurance firms) can explain the timing of branching deregulation across states during the last quarter century. The same factors also explain congressional voting on interstate branching deregulation. While we find some support for each theory, the private interest approach provides the most compelling overall explanation of our results. C1 Univ Chicago, Grad Sch Business, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Fed Reserve Bank New York, Res & Market Anal Grp, New York, NY USA. RP Kroszner, RS (reprint author), Univ Chicago, Grad Sch Business, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. NR 51 TC 179 Z9 179 U1 0 U2 10 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0033-5533 J9 Q J ECON JI Q. J. Econ. PD NOV PY 1999 VL 114 IS 4 BP 1437 EP 1467 DI 10.1162/003355399556223 PG 31 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 275ZU UT WOS:000084851800010 ER PT J AU Waggoner, DF Zha, T AF Waggoner, DF Zha, T TI Conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Joint Meeting of the NBER/NSF Forcasting Seminar/NBER Working Group on Empirical Methods in Macroeconomics CY JUL 14-17, 1998 CL CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS SP NBER Working Grp, NSF ID SIMULATION AB In the existing literature, conditional forecasts in the vector autoregressive (VAR) framework have not been commonly presented with probability distributions. This paper develops Bayesian methods for computing the exact finite-sample distribution of conditional forecasts. It broadens the class of conditional forecasts to which the methods can be applied. The methods work for both structural and reduced-form VAR models and, in contrast to common practices, account for parameter uncertainty in finite samples. Empirical examples under both a flat prior and a reference prior are provided to show the use of these methods. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. RP Waggoner, DF (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. NR 30 TC 50 Z9 50 U1 0 U2 3 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD NOV PY 1999 VL 81 IS 4 BP 639 EP 651 DI 10.1162/003465399558508 PG 13 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA 275ZV UT WOS:000084851900007 ER PT J AU Wright, JH AF Wright, JH TI The local asymptotic power of certain tests for fractional integration SO ECONOMETRIC THEORY LA English DT Article ID UNIT-ROOT; MEMORY AB It is possible to construct a test of the null of no fractional integration that has nontrivial asymptotic power against a sequence of alternatives specifying that the series is I(d) with d = O(T-1/2), where Tis the sample size. In this paper, I show that tests for fractional integration that are based on the partial sum process of the time series have only trivial asymptotic power (i.e., equal to the size) against this sequence of local alternatives. These tests include the rescaled-range test. In this sense, despite its widespread use in empirical work, the rescaled-range test is a poor test for fractional integration. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Wright, JH (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 9 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 1 PU CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS PI NEW YORK PA 40 WEST 20TH STREET, NEW YORK, NY 10011-4211 USA SN 0266-4666 J9 ECONOMET THEOR JI Economet. Theory PD OCT PY 1999 VL 15 IS 5 BP 704 EP 709 PG 6 WC Economics; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA 247FW UT WOS:000083211300003 ER PT J AU Chang, PHK Osler, CL AF Chang, PHK Osler, CL TI Methodical madness: Technical analysis and the irrationality of exchange-rate forecasts SO ECONOMIC JOURNAL LA English DT Article ID TRADING-RULE PROFITS; RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS; FINANCIAL-MARKETS; RISK PREMIUM; NONLINEARITIES; DYNAMICS; MODELS AB dSubstantial empirical research documents that exchange-rate forecasts are: not formed rationally. This paper identifies a common technical trading signal, the head-and-shoulders pattern, as a potential source of departures from rationality in exchange-rate forecasts. Forecasts based on this pattern are evaluated for daily dollar exchange rates over 1973 to 1994, using two criteria for rationality: profitability and efficiency. Resulting profits,, replicable in real-time, are tested for statistical significance using a bootstrap technique. We find that the rule is profitable, but not efficient, since it is dominated by simpler trading rules. C1 Credit Suisse First Boston, New York, NY USA. Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Chang, PHK (reprint author), Credit Suisse First Boston, New York, NY USA. NR 60 TC 38 Z9 39 U1 3 U2 13 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD OX4 1JF, OXON, ENGLAND SN 0013-0133 J9 ECON J JI Econ. J. PD OCT PY 1999 VL 109 IS 458 BP 636 EP 661 DI 10.1111/1468-0297.00466 PG 26 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 273WZ UT WOS:000084733500007 ER PT J AU Judson, RA Owen, AL AF Judson, RA Owen, AL TI Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists SO ECONOMICS LETTERS LA English DT Article DE panel data; simulation; dynamic model ID EFFICIENT ESTIMATION; INSTRUMENTS AB Using a Monte Carlo approach, we find that the bias of LSDV for dynamic panel data models can be sizeable, even when T = 20. A corrected LSDV estimator is the best choice overall, but practical considerations may limit its applicability. GMM is a second best solution and, for long panels, the computationally simpler Anderson-Hsiao estimator performs well. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. C1 Hamilton Coll, Clinton, NY 13323 USA. Fed Reserve Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Owen, AL (reprint author), Hamilton Coll, 198 Coll Hill Rd, Clinton, NY 13323 USA. NR 11 TC 444 Z9 454 U1 2 U2 19 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA PI LAUSANNE PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND SN 0165-1765 J9 ECON LETT JI Econ. Lett. PD OCT PY 1999 VL 65 IS 1 BP 9 EP 15 DI 10.1016/S0165-1765(99)00130-5 PG 7 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 235CK UT WOS:000082521800002 ER PT J AU Corsetti, G Pesenti, P Roubini, N AF Corsetti, G Pesenti, P Roubini, N TI What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis? SO JAPAN AND THE WORLD ECONOMY LA English DT Article DE Asia; moral hazard; balance of payment crisis; banking crisis; speculative attacks; capital controls; crisis management AB The paper explores the view that the Asian currency and financial crises in 1997 and 1998 reflected structural and policy distortions in the countries of the region, even if market overreaction and herding caused the plunge of exchange rates, asset prices and economic activity to be more severe than warranted by the initial weak economic conditions. The first part of the paper provides an overview of economic fundamentals in Asia on the eve of the crisis, with emphasis on current account imbalances, quantity and quality of financial 'overlending', banking problems, and composition, maturity and size of capital inflows. The second part of the paper presents a reconstruction of the Asian crisis from the antecedents in 1995-1996 to the recent developments in early 1999 in parallel with a survey of the debate on the strategies to recover from the crisis, the role of international intervention, and the costs and benefits of capital controls. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification: F31; F33; F34; F36; G15; G18. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, New York, NY 10045 USA. Yale Univ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA. Univ Bologna, Bologna, Italy. NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. NYU, Leonard N Stern Sch Business, Dept Econ, New York, NY 10012 USA. RP Pesenti, P (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, New York, NY 10045 USA. OI Corsetti, Giancarlo/0000-0001-8965-9853 NR 58 TC 170 Z9 175 U1 9 U2 39 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0922-1425 J9 JPN WORLD ECON JI Jpn. World Econ. PD OCT PY 1999 VL 11 IS 3 BP 305 EP 373 DI 10.1016/S0922-1425(99)00019-5 PG 69 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 247HK UT WOS:000083215200001 ER PT J AU McTeer, RD AF McTeer, RD TI Policymakers roundtable SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Fed Reserve Bank Dallas, Dallas, TX 75201 USA. RP McTeer, RD (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Dallas, 2200 N Pearl St, Dallas, TX 75201 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD OCT PY 1999 VL 23 IS 10 BP 1553 EP 1555 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(99)00034-5 PG 3 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 237CV UT WOS:000082638500010 ER PT J AU Dueker, M AF Dueker, M TI Conditional heteroscedasticity in qualitative response models of time series: A Gibbs-sampling approach to the bank prime rate SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS LA English DT Article DE data augmentation; discrete choice; Markov chain ID BUSINESS-CYCLE; REGIME AB Previous time series applications of qualitative response models have ignored features of the data, such as conditional heteroscedasticity, that are routinely addressed in time series econometrics of financial data. This article addresses this issue by adding Markov-switching,a heteroscedasticity to a dynamic ordered probit model of discrete changes in the bank prime lending rate and estimating via the Gibbs sampler. The dynamic ordered probit model of Eichengreen, Watson, and Grossman allows for serial autocorrelation in probit analysis of a time series, and this article demonstrates the relative simplicity of estimating a dynamic ordered probit using the Gibbs sampler instead of the Eichengreen et al. maximum likelihood procedure. In addition, the extension to regime-switching parameters and conditional heteroscedasticity is easy to implement under Gibbs sampling. The article compares tests of goodness of fit between dynamic ordered probit models of the prime rate that have constant variance and conditional heteroscedasticity. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, St Louis, MO 63166 USA. RP Dueker, M (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, St Louis, MO 63166 USA. EM mdueker@stls.frb.org NR 22 TC 20 Z9 20 U1 0 U2 4 PU AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC PI ALEXANDRIA PA 732 N WASHINGTON ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314-1943 USA SN 0735-0015 J9 J BUS ECON STAT JI J. Bus. Econ. Stat. PD OCT PY 1999 VL 17 IS 4 BP 466 EP 472 DI 10.2307/1392403 PG 7 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Mathematics GA 238FU UT WOS:000082700900007 ER PT J AU Fleming, MJ Remolona, EM AF Fleming, MJ Remolona, EM TI Price formation and liquidity in the US Treasury market: The response to public information SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Article ID VOLATILITY; ANNOUNCEMENTS; TRADES; IMPACT AB The arrival of public information in the U.S. Treasury market sets off a two-stage adjustment process for prices, trading volume, and bid-ask spreads. In a brief first stage, the release of a major macroeconomic announcement induces a sharp and nearly instantaneous price change with a reduction in trading volume, demonstrating that price reactions to public information do not require trading. The spread widens dramatically at announcement, evidently driven by inventory control concerns. In a prolonged second stage, trading volume surges, price volatility persists, and spreads remain moderately wide as investors trade to reconcile residual differences in their private views. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Fleming, MJ (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 25 TC 186 Z9 188 U1 10 U2 27 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI HOBOKEN PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA SN 0022-1082 EI 1540-6261 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD OCT PY 1999 VL 54 IS 5 BP 1901 EP 1915 DI 10.1111/0022-1082.00172 PG 15 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 244FK UT WOS:000083041000012 ER PT J AU Neely, CJ AF Neely, CJ TI The crisis of global capitalism. SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Book Review C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Res Dept, St Louis, MO USA. RP Neely, CJ (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Res Dept, St Louis, MO USA. NR 6 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 4 PU BLACKWELL PUBLISHERS PI MALDEN PA 350 MAIN STREET, STE 6, MALDEN, MA 02148 USA SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD OCT PY 1999 VL 54 IS 5 BP 1923 EP 1927 PG 5 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 244FK UT WOS:000083041000014 ER PT J AU Calem, P Rob, R AF Calem, P Rob, R TI The impact of capital-based regulation on bank risk-taking SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION LA English DT Article ID DEPOSIT INSURANCE REFORM; CREDIT CRUNCH; UNITED-STATES; REQUIREMENTS; DISCIPLINE AB In this paper we model the dynamic portfolio choice problem facing banks, calibrate the model using empirical data from the banking industry for 1984-1993, and assess quantitatively the impact of recent regulatory developments related to bank capital. The model implies a U-shaped relationship between capital and risk-taking: As a bank's capital increases it first takes less risk, then more risk. A deposit insurance premium surcharge on undercapitalized banks induces them to take more risk. An increased capital requirement, whether Aat or risk-based, tends to induce more risk-taking by ex-ante well-capitalized hanks that comply with the new standard. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G20,G28. (C) 1999 Academic Press. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Univ Penn, Dept Econ, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. RP Calem, P (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 46 TC 45 Z9 46 U1 3 U2 11 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 USA SN 1042-9573 J9 J FINANC INTERMED JI J. Financ. Intermed. PD OCT PY 1999 VL 8 IS 4 BP 317 EP 352 DI 10.1006/jfin.1999.0276 PG 36 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 284WB UT WOS:000085354900003 ER PT J AU McAndrews, J Roberds, W AF McAndrews, J Roberds, W TI A general equilibrium analysis of check float SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION LA English DT Article ID PAYMENTS AB Households and businesses in the U,S, prefer to use checks over less costly means of payment, Earlier studies have focused on check "float" as an explanation for the continued popularity of this seemingly inefficient technology. We construct a general equilibrium model of check payment and show that the presence of float does not necessarily lead to inefficiency. However, we also identify two potential sources of inefficiency associated with check float: (1) if float is not always priced, then it acts as a distorting tax, and (2) inefficiencies can result if people engage in costly activities designed to accelerate check presentment, Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E58, G21, G28. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, Res Dept, New York, NY 10045 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Res Dept, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. RP McAndrews, J (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, Res Dept, 33 Liberty St, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 20 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 1 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 USA SN 1042-9573 J9 J FINANC INTERMED JI J. Financ. Intermed. PD OCT PY 1999 VL 8 IS 4 BP 353 EP 377 DI 10.1006/jfin.1999.0274 PG 25 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 284WB UT WOS:000085354900004 ER PT J AU Bartolini, L Prati, A AF Bartolini, L Prati, A TI Soft exchange rate bands and speculative attacks: theory, and evidence from the ERM since August 1993 SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE exchange rate target zones; speculative attacks ID TARGET ZONES; REALIGNMENTS; INTERVENTION; MODEL; EMS AB We present a model of a "soft" exchange rate target zone and interpret it as a stylized description of the post-august 1993 ERM. Our central bank targets a moving average of the current and past exchange rates, rather than the exchange rate's current level, thus allowing the rate to move within wide margins in the short run, but within narrow margins in the long run. For realistic parameters, soft target zones are significantly less vulnerable to speculative attacks than "hard" target zones. These predictions are consistent with the ERM's experience and the abatement of speculative pressure in European markets since the bands' widening in 1993. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. Int Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 20431 USA. RP Bartolini, L (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 27 TC 11 Z9 11 U1 0 U2 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD OCT PY 1999 VL 49 IS 1 BP 1 EP 29 DI 10.1016/S0022-1996(98)00053-1 PG 29 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 231YB UT WOS:000082338000001 ER PT J AU Valletta, RG AF Valletta, RG TI Declining job security SO JOURNAL OF LABOR ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Changes in Job Stability and Job Security CY FEB 27-28, 1998 CL RUSSELL SAGE FDN, NEW YORK, NY HO RUSSELL SAGE FDN ID US ECONOMY; STABILITY; UNEMPLOYMENT; REVERSIONS; CONTRACTS; TAKEOVERS; SENIORITY; MOBILITY; LAYOFFS; QUITS AB This article defines and analyzes job security in the context of implicit contracts designed to overcome incentive problems in the employment relationship. Contracts of this nature generate predictions concerning the relationship between job security parameters-such as worker seniority and sectoral economic conditions - and the probability of separations. To test these predictions, I estimate binomial and multinomial models of job separations using Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data for the years 1976-93. The results are consistent with a decline over time in the incentives to maintain existing employment relationships for male workers and for skilled white-collar women. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA. RP Valletta, RG (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA. NR 34 TC 20 Z9 20 U1 0 U2 8 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 1427 E 60TH ST, CHICAGO, IL 60637-2954 USA SN 0734-306X J9 J LABOR ECON JI J. Labor Econ. PD OCT PY 1999 VL 17 IS 4 BP S170 EP S197 DI 10.1086/209947 PN 2 PG 28 WC Economics; Industrial Relations & Labor SC Business & Economics GA 245ME UT WOS:000083112100009 ER PT J AU Chirinko, RS Fazzari, SM Meyer, AP AF Chirinko, RS Fazzari, SM Meyer, AP TI How responsive is business capital formation to its user cost? An exploration with micro data SO JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE business investment; user cost of capital; taxation ID MONETARY-POLICY; INVESTMENT; MODELS; TAXATION AB The response of business capital formation to its user cost is critical to evaluating tax reform, deficit reduction, and monetary policy. Evidence for a substantial user cost elasticity, however, is sparse. Most evidence has been based on aggregate data, although several recent studies with firm-level data report substantial effects. With a particularly rich micro dataset containing over 26,000 observations, this paper explores what can be learned about the user cost elasticity. While the results depend to some extent on the specification and econometric technique, various diagnostics lead us to prefer a precisely estimated but small elasticity of approximately - 0.25. This paper is dedicated to the memory of Robert Eisner, who labored early and ably on uncovering the determinants of investment spending and highlighting the importance of the question found in the title of this paper. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. C1 Emory Univ, Dept Econ, Atlanta, GA 30322 USA. Washington Univ, Dept Econ, St Louis, MO 63130 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, St Louis, MO 63166 USA. RP Chirinko, RS (reprint author), Emory Univ, Dept Econ, Atlanta, GA 30322 USA. NR 48 TC 90 Z9 92 U1 2 U2 11 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA PI LAUSANNE PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND SN 0047-2727 J9 J PUBLIC ECON JI J. Public Econ. PD OCT PY 1999 VL 74 IS 1 BP 53 EP 80 DI 10.1016/S0047-2727(99)00024-9 PG 28 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 231DT UT WOS:000082293400003 ER PT J AU Atkeson, A Kehoe, PJ AF Atkeson, A Kehoe, PJ TI Models of energy use: Putty-putty versus putty-clay SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID SUBSTITUTION; DEMAND C1 Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Res Dept, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Univ Penn, Dept Econ, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. RP Atkeson, A (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Res Dept, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. NR 23 TC 78 Z9 80 U1 2 U2 8 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0002-8282 EI 1944-7981 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD SEP PY 1999 VL 89 IS 4 BP 1028 EP 1043 DI 10.1257/aer.89.4.1028 PG 16 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 240KL UT WOS:000082825100018 ER PT J AU Sims, CA Zha, T AF Sims, CA Zha, T TI Error bands for impulse responses SO ECONOMETRICA LA English DT Article DE vector autoregression; confidence region; Bayesian methods; impulse responses ID AUTOREGRESSIONS AB We show how correctly to extend known methods for generating error bands in reduced form VAR's to overidentified models. We argue that the conventional pointwise bands common in the literature should be supplemented with measures of shape uncertainty, and we show how to generate such measures. We focus an bands that characterize the shape of the likelihood. Such bands are not classical confidence regions. We explain that classical confidence regions mix information about parameter location with information about model fit, and hence can be misleading as summaries of the implications of the data for the location of parameters. Because classical confidence regions also present conceptual and computational problems in multivariate time series models, we suggest that likelihood-based bands, rather than approximate confidence bands based on asymptotic theory, be standard in reporting results for this type of model. C1 Princeton Univ, Dept Econ, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. RP Sims, CA (reprint author), Princeton Univ, Dept Econ, Fisher Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. NR 34 TC 230 Z9 235 U1 2 U2 9 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD OX4 1JF, OXON, ENGLAND SN 0012-9682 J9 ECONOMETRICA JI Econometrica PD SEP PY 1999 VL 67 IS 5 BP 1113 EP 1155 DI 10.1111/1468-0262.00071 PG 43 WC Economics; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA 229NK UT WOS:000082200500004 ER PT J AU Bernanke, BS Laubach, T Mishkin, FS Posen, AS AF Bernanke, BS Laubach, T Mishkin, FS Posen, AS TI Missing the mark - The truth about inflation targeting SO FOREIGN AFFAIRS LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Princeton Univ, Dept Econ, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, Kansas City, MO 64198 USA. Columbia Univ, Grad Sch Business, New York, NY 10027 USA. RP Bernanke, BS (reprint author), Princeton Univ, Dept Econ, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. NR 0 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 2 U2 5 PU COUNC FOREIGN RELAT INC PI NEW YORK PA 58 E 68TH ST, NEW YORK, NY 10021 USA SN 0015-7120 J9 FOREIGN AFF JI Foreign Aff. PD SEP-OCT PY 1999 VL 78 IS 5 BP 158 EP 161 DI 10.2307/20049457 PG 4 WC International Relations SC International Relations GA 229ZT UT WOS:000082226800014 ER PT J AU Wieland, V AF Wieland, V TI Computational methods and economic dynamics: Introduction SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Wieland, V (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 9 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD SEP PY 1999 VL 23 IS 9-10 BP 1243 EP 1247 PG 5 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 236PZ UT WOS:000082608900001 ER PT J AU Kozicki, S Tinsley, PA AF Kozicki, S Tinsley, PA TI Vector rational error correction SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article DE adjustment costs; capital equipment; companion systems; vector error correction ID MONETARY-POLICY; EXPECTATIONS; DEMAND; PRICES; TIME AB Systems of forward-looking linear decision rules can be formulated as vector 'rational' error correction models. The closed-form solution of the restricted error corrections is derived, and a full-information estimator is suggested. The error correction format indicates that the assumptions of convex adjustment costs and rational expectations impose different types of a priori restrictions on the dynamic structure of the error corrections. An empirical model of the producer decision rule for capital investment illustrates that the data rejects dynamic restrictions imposed by a standard model of adjustment costs but supports a more general description of convex frictions. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Kansas City, MO 64198 USA. Univ Cambridge, Fac Econ & Polit, Cambridge CB3 9DD, England. RP Kozicki, S (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Kansas City, MO 64198 USA. NR 39 TC 11 Z9 11 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD SEP PY 1999 VL 23 IS 9-10 BP 1299 EP 1327 DI 10.1016/S0165-1889(98)00075-X PG 29 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 236PZ UT WOS:000082608900004 ER PT J AU Stavins, J Bauer, PW AF Stavins, J Bauer, PW TI The effect of pricing on demand and revenue in federal reserve ACH payment processing SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Article DE Federal Reserve; electronic payments; automated clearinghouse; demand elasticity AB Because the automated clearinghouse (ACH) has been found to have lower social costs than paper checks, the Federal Reserve has been promoting more widespread use of ACH by lowering ACH processing fees. In this paper, we have obtained the first numerical estimates of ACH demand elasticities, a measure of the responsiveness of ACH demand to price changes. Various methods are employed to estimate the demand elasticities to determine how robust the estimates are. During the period 1985-1996, the Federal Reserve lowered the per-item price of interregional ACH, while the per-item price of intraregional ACH stayed constant. We take advantage of this unique pattern of historical price changes implemented by the Federal Reserve to estimate the effect of price changes on demand for ACH. We find that the volume of ACH processed by the Federal Reserve responds to changes in per-item fees, but the increase in volume that results from a price decline is very small and not statistically significantly different from 0, except in the case of debit origination. The results suggest that the Federal Reserve cannot expect to generate substantial additional volume by lowering its prices further. However, commercial banks may be able to increase the volume demanded by lowering their own ACH fees. We also examine how volume growth initiated by a price cut affects unit costs. Given the relatively large-scale economies found for ACH, volume growth leads to lower unit costs. However, to outweigh the revenues lost as a result of a price decline, ACH volume would have to increase by an amount much greater than our estimates indicate is likely. Consequently, a decline in per-item ACH fees likely would lead to lower net revenues. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Res Dept, Boston, MA 02210 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Res Dept, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. RP Stavins, J (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Res Dept, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 16 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD SEP PY 1999 VL 16 IS 1 BP 27 EP 45 DI 10.1023/A:1008106714963 PG 19 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 236HZ UT WOS:000082595300002 ER PT J AU Furlong, F Kwan, S AF Furlong, F Kwan, S TI Financial modernization and regulation SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA. RP Furlong, F (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA. NR 1 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 1 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD SEP PY 1999 VL 16 IS 2-3 BP 95 EP 100 DI 10.1023/A:1008114922616 PG 6 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 309YF UT WOS:000086796600001 ER PT J AU Rosengren, ES AF Rosengren, ES TI Modernizing financial regulation: Implications for bank supervision SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Article DE disclosure; bank supervision AB Reducing payments and settlement risk should be pursued where economically possible, but will not obviate the need for bank supervision. Governments regulate the banking sector because they are the intermediaries that transform short-term liabilities into long-term loans. Bank supervision needs to be supplemented with improved disclosure, greater market discipline, and in many countries, increased, not decreased, supervisory resources. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Rosengren, ES (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 8 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 3 PU SPRINGER PI NEW YORK PA 233 SPRING ST, NEW YORK, NY 10013 USA SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD SEP PY 1999 VL 16 IS 2-3 BP 117 EP 123 DI 10.1023/A:1008132223525 PG 7 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 309YF UT WOS:000086796600003 ER PT J AU Kwast, ML Passmore, SW AF Kwast, ML Passmore, SW TI The subsidy provided by the federal safety net: Theory and evidence SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Article DE banking; subsidy; safety net ID BANKS AB Views about the value to depository institutions of the federal safety net differ widely. Resolution of the issue is important because defining the appropriate relationship between the federal safety net and financial institutions is central to the design of efficient financial modernization strategies. A heuristic model is presented of how the safety net subsidy affects the size of the banking system and the behavior of banks. The model suggests that banks should have lower capital ratios than similar nonbank financial firms. Evidence is presented that supports this prediction and that banks have organized themselves in ways that take advantage of safety net benefits. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Kwast, ML (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 23 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 1 U2 2 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD SEP PY 1999 VL 16 IS 2-3 BP 125 EP 145 DI 10.1023/A:1008184207595 PG 21 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 309YF UT WOS:000086796600004 ER PT J AU Kaufman, GG AF Kaufman, GG TI Comments on "The subsidy provided by the federal safety net: Theory and measurement" SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Loyola Univ, Chicago, IL 60611 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Chicago, IL 60604 USA. RP Kaufman, GG (reprint author), Loyola Univ, Chicago, IL 60611 USA. NR 7 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD SEP PY 1999 VL 16 IS 2-3 BP 147 EP 152 DI 10.1023/A:1008136324433 PG 6 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 309YF UT WOS:000086796600005 ER PT J AU Kwan, S AF Kwan, S TI Comments on "Trends in organizational form and their relationship to performance: The case of foreign securities subsidiaries of US banking organizations" SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA. RP Kwan, S (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD SEP PY 1999 VL 16 IS 2-3 BP 219 EP 221 DI 10.1023/A:1008192409412 PG 3 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 309YF UT WOS:000086796600008 ER PT J AU Wall, LD Eisenbeis, RA AF Wall, LD Eisenbeis, RA TI Financial regulatory structure and the resolution of conflicting goals SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Article DE regulatory structure; financial services ID COMPETITION AB The debate over modernizing the financial structure is raising questions about the merits of modernizing the financial regulatory structure. Regulatory structure is important because an almost unavoidable feature of our current system of government is that Congress assigns multiple goals, which sometimes have conflicting policy implications, to the regulatory agencies. The structure of the agencies is important to the resolution of these conflicts. Responsibility for two or more goals that have conflicting implications may be assigned to a single agency, which is likely to resolve the conflict with a consistent set of policies based on the agency's priorities. Alternatively, the goals may be assigned to more than one agency, an action that often results in the conflicts being debated in the public arena but that also may result in the agencies implementing inconsistent policies. This paper uses the problem of goal conflicts to provide a framework for evaluating alternative regulatory structures. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. RP Wall, LD (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. NR 34 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 2 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD SEP PY 1999 VL 16 IS 2-3 BP 223 EP 245 DI 10.1023/A:1008144526251 PG 23 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 309YF UT WOS:000086796600009 ER PT J AU Hunter, WC AF Hunter, WC TI Comments on "Regulatory distortions in a competitive financial services industry" SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Res, Chicago, IL 60604 USA. RP Hunter, WC (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Res, Chicago, IL 60604 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD SEP PY 1999 VL 16 IS 2-3 BP 261 EP 263 DI 10.1023/A:1008100711230 PG 3 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 309YF UT WOS:000086796600012 ER PT J AU Ferguson, RW AF Ferguson, RW TI Alternative approaches to financial supervision and regulation SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Article AB I am delighted to address the topic of approaches to regulating financial institutions. Given the current level of global financial upset, which can be traced in part to poor banking regulation in many countries, I think that no subject is more timely. In my remarks, I will focus on two topics: First, what are the respective roles of market regulation and government regulation? Second, what are the different ways of organizing the government supervision and regulation of institutions that include a bank? C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Ferguson, RW (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 0 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 1 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD SEP PY 1999 VL 16 IS 2-3 BP 297 EP 303 DI 10.1023/A:1008156828977 PG 7 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 309YF UT WOS:000086796600015 ER PT J AU Lansing, KJ AF Lansing, KJ TI Optimal redistributive capital taxation in a neoclassical growth model SO JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE fiscal policy; optimal taxation; redistribution ID OPTIMAL FISCAL-POLICY; GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM; INCOME TAXATION; TAXES; INCONSISTENCY AB This paper provides a counterexample to the simplest version of the redistribution models considered by Judd (1985) in which the government chooses an optimal distortionary tax on capitalists to finance a lump-sum payment to workers. I show that the steady-state optimal tax on capital income is generally non-zero when the capitalists' utility is logarithmic and the government faces a balanced-budget constraint. With log utility, agents' optimal decisions depend solely on the current rate of return, not any future rates of return or tax rates. This feature of the economy effectively deprives the government of a useful policy instrument because promises about future tax rates can no longer influence current allocations. When combined with a lack of other suitable policy instruments (such as government bonds), the result is an inability to decentralize the allocations that are consistent with a zero-limiting capital tax. I show that the standard approach to solving the dynamic optimal tax problem yields the wrong answer in this (knife-edge) case because it fails to properly enforce the constraints associated with the competitive equilibrium; Specifically, the standard approach lets in an additional policy instrument through the back door. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94120 USA. RP Lansing, KJ (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, POB 7702, San Francisco, CA 94120 USA. NR 59 TC 27 Z9 27 U1 2 U2 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA PI LAUSANNE PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND SN 0047-2727 J9 J PUBLIC ECON JI J. Public Econ. PD SEP PY 1999 VL 73 IS 3 BP 423 EP 453 DI 10.1016/S0047-2727(99)00016-X PG 31 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 218YG UT WOS:000081580200006 ER PT J AU Park, S AF Park, S TI Effects of risk-based capital requirements and asymmetric information on banks' portfolio decisions SO JOURNAL OF REGULATORY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID CREDIT CRUNCH; STOCK RETURNS; INVESTMENT; ISSUES; FIRMS AB This paper examines if asymmetric information about earnings prospects caused low-capital banks to reduce assets rather than raise capital between 1989 and 1992, the transition period from the leverage ratio to the risk-based capital requirement. The measure of asymmetric information here is the residual of an earnings prediction model based on publicly available information. If managers are significantly better informed than outside investors, a large residual indicates that inside information is more favorable and that the bank's stock is undervalued. The empirical results show an insignificant effect of asymmetric information on banks' portfolio decisions. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, Capital Markets Funct, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Park, S (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, Capital Markets Funct, 33 Liberty St, New York, NY 10045 USA. EM Sangkyun.Park@ny.frb.org NR 19 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 2 U2 4 PU SPRINGER PI DORDRECHT PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0922-680X J9 J REGUL ECON JI J. Regul. Econ. PD SEP PY 1999 VL 16 IS 2 BP 135 EP 150 PG 16 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 245JR UT WOS:000083104900002 ER PT J AU Coronado, JL AF Coronado, JL TI Tax exemption and state capital investment SO NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT National-Tax-Association Symposium on Tax Policy in a Time of Surplus CY MAY 10-11, 1999 CL ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA SP Natl Tax Assoc ID BONDS AB Recent theoretical models have called into question whether the tax exemption on the interest on municipal bonds actually provides a marginal subsidy to state and local capital investment. This paper develops a framework for testing for the presence of a subsidy and uses a state level data set to estimate the model. The findings provide some evidence that tax exemption subsidizes capital spending, although the results are sensitive to model specification. C1 Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Coronado, JL (reprint author), Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 11 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 2 U2 3 PU NATL TAX ASSN PI COLUMBUS PA 5310 EAST MAIN ST, COLUMBUS, OH 43213 USA SN 0028-0283 J9 NATL TAX J JI Natl. Tax J. PD SEP PY 1999 VL 52 IS 3 BP 473 EP 481 PG 9 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 236QY UT WOS:000082611100012 ER PT J AU Fortune, P AF Fortune, P TI Are stock returns different over weekends? A jump diffusion analysis of the "weekend effect" SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB The distribution of returns on common stocks is, arguably, one of the most widely studied financial market Characteristics. The performance of stock prices during breaks in trading has received considerable attention in recent years, especially since the advent of "circuit breakers" designed to create stability when markets are chaotic. This study examines the distribution of daily returns on five popular stock price indices, with a special emphasis on the difference between returns over:weekends and returns over adjacent intraweek trading days. The author revisits the "weekend effect" in common stock returns, focusing on two characteristics of differential returns over intraweek trading days and over weekends: the "drift" and the "volatility" He finds that the volatility of stock returns over weekends is much smaller than could be predicted from intraweek volatility. This is true of stock returns over weekends both before and after October 1987. He also finds that the difference between intraweek drift and weekend drift is smaller after October 1987 than before. Indeed, it disappears for large companies, suggesting that the poor performance of common stocks over weekends in the 1980s was a financial anomaly that was mitigated over time, as investors incorporated it into the timing of their transactions. The sharp decrease in volatility over weekends is consistent with the view that active trading actually increases volatility, so that a close in trading will be consistent with a reduction in volatility. However, a weekend is a scheduled event, which might simply reduce the rate of new information flow, while a sudden halt in trading might eliminate all information flow from price discovery, creating an environment that elicits the volatility it is designed to mitigate. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Boston, MA 02106 USA. RP Fortune, P (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Boston, MA 02106 USA. NR 17 TC 9 Z9 9 U1 2 U2 3 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD SEP-OCT PY 1999 BP 3 EP + PG 18 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 255EY UT WOS:000083657600001 ER PT J AU Peek, J Rosengren, ES Tootell, GMB AF Peek, J Rosengren, ES Tootell, GMB TI Using bank supervisory data to improve macroeconomic forecasts SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID CREDIT CRUNCH; INDICATORS; RATES AB Locating the function of bank supervision in the central bank has been a contentious issue, both domestically and internationally. Most discussions of the role of bank supervision in central banking have focused on crisis management and the responsibilities of the central bank as a lender of last resort. However, recent research by the authors has shown that confidential supervisory information garnered through bank examinations potentially can improve the forecasts of key macroeconomic variables and thus the conduct of monetary policy. Forecasting macroeconomic variables is essential to the conduct of monetary policy, since the long lags in the effect of monetary policy ensure that changes in monetary policy today alter the economy only in the future. This article explores further the robustness of the results reported earlier. It examines the pattern of the forecast errors of the individual private forecasters studied, and confirms the earlier results. Thus, the article concludes that an important reason for central banks to have access to confidential supervisory information, and possibly to participate in its collection, is that such information can improve macroeconomic forecasts and in this way improve monetary policy decision-making. C1 Boston Coll, Boston, MA USA. RP Peek, J (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 23 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 1 U2 3 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD SEP-OCT PY 1999 BP 21 EP + PG 13 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 255EY UT WOS:000083657600002 ER PT J AU Bradbury, KL AF Bradbury, KL TI Job creation and destruction in Massachusetts: Gross flows among industries SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID EMPLOYMENT AB The Massachusetts economy has experienced wide swings in employment in the 1990s, losing over 10 percent of existing jobs in the 1990-91 recession (which began locally in 1989) and not surpassing its pre-recession job peak until early 1998. Within individual sectors of the economy, the losses and gains have been even greater, with many manufacturing industries losing jobs almost nonstop while some nonmanufacturing industries have expanded markedly. This article examines these employment swings and attempts to better understand their dynamic underpinnings by disaggregating them into the simultaneous job creation and job destruction that underlie any net change. The author finds that while sharply higher job destruction dominated the flows in the recession, most of the action in the expansion has been in job creation, especially in nonmanufacturing. She also finds that job creation and job destruction have been highly persistent. Five-sixths of the jobs that were created in Massachusetts nonmanufacturing industries over the 1988-89 period lasted two or more years. One key fact emerging from the analysis is that manufacturing plays a relatively small, and shrinking, role in economic change in Massachusetts. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Bradbury, KL (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 8 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 1 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD SEP-OCT PY 1999 BP 33 EP + PG 21 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 255EY UT WOS:000083657600003 ER PT J AU Little, JS Olivei, GP AF Little, JS Olivei, GP TI Why the interest in reforming the international monetary system? SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Review ID MARKETS; GROWTH AB The recent spate of severe financial crises has provoked an interest in international monetary reform not seen since the breakdown of the fixed exchange rate system 30 years ago. Indeed, the crises have forced both academic economists and policymakers to question some of their most basic assumptions about the appropriate design of the international monetary system. This article was the introductory paper at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston's conference on "Rethinking the International Monetary System," held in June 1999. The article reviews recent changes in the economic environment that have provoked the interest in reform. It goes on to explore how policy choices concerning four key aspects of the international monetary system-exchange rate regimes, treatment of capital flows, international lender of last resort facilities, and policy coordination-interact to support or undermine national efforts to achieve stable economic growth. The authors posit that current arrangements create unpalatable policy choices for many nations and that inadequate surveillance and policy coordination and the ambiguities surrounding international rescue programs contributed to recent crises. While widely advocated improvements in transparency and governance and the market forces they engender should encourage more mature financial systems and better macro policies, the authors suggest that the ongoing struggle to achieve stable growth points to the need for more fundamental reform. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Little, JS (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 117 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 1 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD SEP-OCT PY 1999 BP 53 EP + PG 33 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 255EY UT WOS:000083657600004 ER PT J AU Gertler, M Lown, CS AF Gertler, M Lown, CS TI The information in the high-yield bond spread for the business cycle: Evidence and some implications SO OXFORD REVIEW OF ECONOMIC POLICY LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Financial Instability CY JUL, 1999 CL OXFORD UNIV, OXFORD, ENGLAND SP Natl Sci Fdn, CV Starr Ctr HO OXFORD UNIV ID MONETARY-POLICY; TRANSMISSION; INCOME AB The market for high-yield (below-investment-grade) corporate bonds developed in the middle 1980s, We show that, since this time, the high-yield spread has had significantly explanatory power for the business cycle. We interpret this finding as possibly symptomatic of financial factors at work in the business cycle, along the lines suggested by the financial accelerator We also show that over that period the high-yield spread outperforms other leading financial indicators, including the term spread, the paper-bill spread and the Federal Funds rate. We conjecture that changes in the conduct of monetary policy ever time may account for the reduced informativeness of these alternative indicators, all of which are tied closely to monetary policy. C1 NYU, New York, NY 10012 USA. NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY USA. RP Gertler, M (reprint author), NYU, New York, NY 10012 USA. NR 29 TC 53 Z9 53 U1 0 U2 6 PU OXFORD UNIV PRESS PI OXFORD PA GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND SN 0266-903X EI 1460-2121 J9 OXFORD REV ECON POL JI Oxf. Rev. Econ. Policy PD FAL PY 1999 VL 15 IS 3 BP 132 EP 150 DI 10.1093/oxrep/15.3.132 PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 265UK UT WOS:000084264000010 ER PT J AU Saving, JL AF Saving, JL TI Migration, labor-leisure choice, and Pareto suboptimal redistribution SO REGIONAL SCIENCE AND URBAN ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE migration; redistribution; work-disincentive effects; public goods; spillovers ID FEDERAL ENVIRONMENTAL-REGULATION; INCOME-REDISTRIBUTION; WELFARE; MOBILITY; SYSTEM; MARKET; BOTTOM; RACE AB This paper explores redistributive externalities and the extent to which redistribution helps the poor. We find that traditional work in the migration literature systematically understates the extent to which generous redistributive policies cause members of a common labor market to attract recipients and repel workers. We also find that, when labor-leisure externalities are sufficiently severe and concern for social justice sufficiently great, it is possible for an increase in redistribution to harm the poor. When these conditions are satisfied, redistribution becomes a public bad rather than a public good. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Dallas, TX 75201 USA. RP Saving, JL (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, 2200 N Pearl St, Dallas, TX 75201 USA. NR 24 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 1 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0166-0462 J9 REG SCI URBAN ECON JI Reg. Sci. Urban Econ. PD SEP PY 1999 VL 29 IS 5 BP 559 EP 573 DI 10.1016/S0166-0462(99)00012-5 PG 15 WC Economics; Environmental Studies; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Urban Studies GA 226TT UT WOS:000082038600002 ER PT J AU Berlin, M Mester, LJ AF Berlin, M Mester, LJ TI Deposits and relationship lending SO REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES LA English DT Article ID DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS; PRIVATE; MARKETS; FINANCE; CREDIT; INFORMATION; BANKING; RISK AB We empirically examine whether access to deposits with inelastic rates (core deposits) permits a bank to make contractual agreements with borrowers that are infeasible if the bank must pay market rates for funds. Such access insulates a bank's costs of funds from exogenous shocks, allowing it to insulate its borrowers against exogenous credit shocks. We find that, controlling for loan market competition, banks funded more heavily with core deposits provide more loan rate smoothing in response to exogenous changes in aggregate credit risk. Thus we provide evidence for a novel channel linking bank liabilities to relationship lending. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Res Dept, Philadelphia, PA 19106 USA. Univ Penn, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. RP Berlin, M (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Res Dept, 10 Independence Mall, Philadelphia, PA 19106 USA. NR 35 TC 88 Z9 88 U1 3 U2 14 PU OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC PI CARY PA JOURNALS DEPT, 2001 EVANS RD, CARY, NC 27513 USA SN 0893-9454 J9 REV FINANC STUD JI Rev. Financ. Stud. PD FAL PY 1999 VL 12 IS 3 BP 579 EP 607 DI 10.1093/rfs/12.3.579 PG 29 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 224HQ UT WOS:000081892300006 ER PT J AU Lengwiler, Y AF Lengwiler, Y TI The multiple unit auction with variable supply SO ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article DE multiple unit auction; uniform price; price discrimination ID MULTIUNIT AUCTIONS; PRICE AUCTION; QUANTITY; BIDDERS AB The theory of multiple unit auctions traditionally assumes that the offered quantity is fixed. I argue that this assumption is not appropriate for many applications because the seller may be able and willing to adjust the supply as a function of the bidding. In this paper I address this shortcoming by analyzing a multi-unit auction game between a monopolistic seller who can produce arbitrary quantities at constant unit cost, and oligopolistic bidders. I establish the existence of a subgame-perfect equilibrium for price discriminating and for uniform price auctions. I also show that bidders have an incentive to misreport their true demand in both auction formats, but they do that in different ways and for different reasons. Furthermore, both auction formats are inefficient, but there is no unambiguous ordering among them. Finally, the more competitive the bidders are, the more likely the seller is to prefer uniform pricing over price discrimination, yet increased competition among bidders may or may not enhance efficiency. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Monetary Affairs, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Swiss Natl Bank, CH-8022 Zurich, Switzerland. RP Lengwiler, Y (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Monetary Affairs, Mail Stop 71, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 20 TC 32 Z9 33 U1 0 U2 2 PU SPRINGER VERLAG PI NEW YORK PA 175 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0938-2259 J9 ECON THEOR JI Econ. Theory PD AUG PY 1999 VL 14 IS 2 BP 373 EP 392 DI 10.1007/s001990050299 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 233LL UT WOS:000082428300007 ER PT J AU Kasa, K AF Kasa, K TI An observational equivalence among H-infinity-control policies SO ECONOMICS LETTERS LA English DT Article DE model uncertainty; robust control ID UNCERTAINTY AB This paper constructs an equivalence class of objective functions that produce the same linear state-feedback decision rule. Members of this class are distinguished by the relative weight placed on state variability and the minimized H-infinity norm of the system's transfer function. This result is used to show that in models of dynamic policy formation a concern for robustness in the presence of model uncertainty can substitute for the ad hoc incorporation of adjustment costs. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, Dept Res, San Francisco, CA 94120 USA. RP Kasa, K (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, Dept Res, POB 7702, San Francisco, CA 94120 USA. NR 18 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA PI LAUSANNE PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND SN 0165-1765 J9 ECON LETT JI Econ. Lett. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 64 IS 2 BP 173 EP 180 DI 10.1016/S0165-1765(99)00077-4 PG 8 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 225WC UT WOS:000081988100007 ER PT J AU Espinosa-Vega, VA Yip, CK AF Espinosa-Vega, VA Yip, CK TI Fiscal and monetary policy interactions in an endogenous growth model with financial intermediaries SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID LONG-RUN GROWTH; ECONOMIC-GROWTH; INFLATION; MONEY AB This paper presents a framework that can help reconcile conflicting findings in the growth-inflation literature. Here, the behavior of financial intermediaries plays a crucial role in the determination of the economy's inflation and real growth rates. Absent any restrictions on financial intermediation, there will be a unique equilibrium when agents are fairly risk averse. In this case, an increase in seigniorage-financed government spending will always be inflationary and detrimental to growth. When agents exhibit a low degree of risk aversion, multiple equilibria emerge and a positive relation between inflation and growth a la Tobin can be observed. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong. RP Espinosa-Vega, VA (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. NR 29 TC 14 Z9 14 U1 3 U2 5 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 USA SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 40 IS 3 BP 595 EP 615 PG 21 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 227LJ UT WOS:000082081600003 ER PT J AU Iyigun, MF AF Iyigun, MF TI Public education and intergenerational, economic mobility SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID INCOME-DISTRIBUTION; GROWTH; INVESTMENT; INEQUALITY; EARNINGS AB This paper examines the role of public education in determining intergenerational economic mobility. It considers a model in which education is free and admission to schools is competitive. The results indicate that for mobility to increase during the process of development, the share of resources devoted to public education needs to be large enough to offset the relative advantage of having educated parents in academic attainment. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Int Finance Div, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Iyigun, MF (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Int Finance Div, 20th & C St,Mail Stop 23, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 21 TC 11 Z9 12 U1 0 U2 2 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 USA SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 40 IS 3 BP 697 EP 710 DI 10.1111/1468-2354.00035 PG 14 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 227LJ UT WOS:000082081600008 ER PT J AU Becsi, Z Wang, P Wynne, MA AF Becsi, Z Wang, P Wynne, MA TI Costly intermediation, the big push and the big crash SO JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE financial intermediation; economic development; imperfect competition ID FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION; EQUILIBRIUM; GROWTH AB Why does financial activity generate large real effects? We argue that this may reflect a multiplicity of equilibria, due to dynamic interactions between worker's saving decisions and bank's monopolistic competition. We show that the equilibrium-responses of key aggregates to changes in investment uncertainty and intermediation costs depend crucially on intertemporal substitutability and aggregate employment. Small financial disturbances may cause the economy to shift between low and high-employment equilibria, thus providing explanation for the big push and the big crash. The high-employment, high-real-interest-rate equilibrium is consistent with the development experience of the financially repressed East Asian economies prior to July 1997. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification: E44; O41. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Dept Res, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. Vanderbilt Univ, Dept Econ, Nashville, TN 37235 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, Dept Res, Dallas, TX 75201 USA. RP Becsi, Z (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Dept Res, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. NR 34 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 2 U2 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3878 J9 J DEV ECON JI J. Dev. Econ. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 59 IS 2 BP 275 EP 293 DI 10.1016/S0304-3878(99)00013-9 PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 218YH UT WOS:000081580300004 ER PT J AU Jaffe, JF Mahoney, JM AF Jaffe, JF Mahoney, JM TI The performance of investment newsletters SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE investment newsletters; stock selection; performance measurement AB This paper analyzes the recommendations of common stocks made by the investment newsletters followed by the Hulbert Financial Digest. We conclude that, taken as a whole, the securities that newsletters recommend do not outperform appropriate benchmarks. Our data provide modest evidence that the future performance of a newsletter is related to its past performance, when performance is measure by raw returns.:Evidence of persistence vanishes, however, when performance is measured by abnormal returns. We find little, if any, evidence of herding, i.e., cross-sectional dependence of recommendations, across newsletters. Newsletters tend to recommend securities that have performed well in the recent past. Finally, newsletters with poor past performance are more likely to go out of business. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Penn, Wharton Sch, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Jaffe, JF (reprint author), Univ Penn, Wharton Sch, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. NR 9 TC 16 Z9 16 U1 0 U2 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA PI LAUSANNE PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND SN 0304-405X J9 J FINANC ECON JI J. Financ. Econ. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 53 IS 2 BP 289 EP 307 DI 10.1016/S0304-405X(99)00023-9 PG 19 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 217ND UT WOS:000081505100005 ER PT J AU Edison, HJ McCarthy, CH AF Edison, HJ McCarthy, CH TI Perspectives on the financial crisis in Asia SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE LA English DT Editorial Material DE Asian financial crisis AB On October 16, 1998, The Journal of International Money and Finance and the Fordham Graduate School of Business organized a one-day conference on the "Economic Perspectives of the Asian Crisis." The initial focus of the conference was the Asian financial crisis; however, before the conference the crisis had spread to Russia and then Latin America, and several of the papers are broader in scope. The participants consisted of academics and economists from policymaking institutions. A selection of the papers at the conference and some additional papers are included in the Journal of International Money and Finance Volume 18, Issue 4. This paper is an introduction to the papers that appear in this conference issue. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. JEL classification: F3. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Fordham Univ, Grad Sch Business, New York, NY 10023 USA. RP Edison, HJ (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RI Edison, Hali/A-7550-2009 NR 2 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 1 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD PI OXFORD PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, OXON, ENGLAND SN 0261-5606 J9 J INT MONEY FINANC JI J. Int. Money Finan. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 18 IS 4 BP 495 EP 500 PG 6 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 219ED UT WOS:000081594200001 ER PT J AU Kamin, SB AF Kamin, SB TI The current international financial crisis: how much is new? SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE LA English DT Article DE devaluations; financial crises AB This paper surveys a broad array of data to compare the scope and impact of three emerging market financial crises: the debt crisis of the 1980s, the Mexican financial crisis of 1994-95, and the current international financial crisis. While certain conventional views regarding the three episodes are supported by the data examined in this paper, we find that in several respects, the current crisis is more similar to prior emerging market crisis episodes than is commonly believed. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. JEL classification: F32; F41. C1 Fed Reserve Board, Int Finance Div, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Kamin, SB (reprint author), Fed Reserve Board, Int Finance Div, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 2 TC 23 Z9 23 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD PI OXFORD PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, OXON, ENGLAND SN 0261-5606 J9 J INT MONEY FINANC JI J. Int. Money Finan. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 18 IS 4 BP 501 EP 514 DI 10.1016/S0261-5606(99)00025-X PG 14 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 219ED UT WOS:000081594200002 ER PT J AU Fernald, J Edison, H Loungani, P AF Fernald, J Edison, H Loungani, P TI Was China the first domino? Assessing links between China and other Asian economies SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE LA English DT Article DE Asian financial crisis; China; contagion; currency crises; devaluation; trade linkages AB Several commentators have suggested that competition from China-in particular its 1994 'devaluation' and strong export performance during 1994-95-may have contributed to the Asian crisis of 1997-98. We provide evidence against this view. We show that the devaluation was not important in economic terms, and China's strong export performance in 1994-95 was matched by other Asian economies. We also show that the period 1993 and 1996 was marked by relative stability in the export shares of China and other Asian economies in various geographical regions and industries. The paper concludes by outlining channels through which the Asian crisis could affect China. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. JEL classification: F31. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Int Monetary Fund, Asia & Pacific Dept, Washington, DC 20431 USA. RP Fernald, J (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RI Edison, Hali/A-7550-2009 NR 25 TC 33 Z9 35 U1 1 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD PI OXFORD PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, OXON, ENGLAND SN 0261-5606 J9 J INT MONEY FINANC JI J. Int. Money Finan. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 18 IS 4 BP 515 EP 535 DI 10.1016/S0261-5606(99)00019-4 PG 21 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 219ED UT WOS:000081594200003 ER PT J AU Glick, R Rose, AK AF Glick, R Rose, AK TI Contagion and trade - Why are currency crises regional? SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE LA English DT Article DE speculative; attack; exchange rate; international; macroeconomic; empirical ID OF-PAYMENTS CRISES AB Currency crises tend to be regional; they affect countries in geographic proximity. This suggests that patterns of international trade are important in understanding how currency crises spread, above and beyond any macroeconomic phenomena. We provide empirical support for this hypothesis. Using data for five different currency crises (in 1971, 1973, 1992, 1994 and 1997) we show that currency crises affect clusters of countries tied together by international trade. By way of contrast, macroeconomic and financial influences are not closely associated with the cross-country incidence of speculative attacks. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. JEL classification: F32. C1 Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA. Univ Calif Berkeley, Haas Sch Business, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. RP Glick, R (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, 101 Market St, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA. RI Rose, Andrew/I-1578-2014 OI Rose, Andrew/0000-0003-1100-1212 NR 15 TC 186 Z9 190 U1 5 U2 14 PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD PI OXFORD PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, OXON, ENGLAND SN 0261-5606 J9 J INT MONEY FINANC JI J. Int. Money Finan. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 18 IS 4 BP 603 EP 617 DI 10.1016/S0261-5606(99)00023-6 PG 15 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 219ED UT WOS:000081594200007 ER PT J AU Zavodny, M AF Zavodny, M TI Do men's characteristics affect whether a nonmarital pregnancy results in marriage? SO JOURNAL OF MARRIAGE AND THE FAMILY LA English DT Article DE fathers; legitimation; nonmarital pregnancy; shot-gun marriage ID UNITED-STATES; FAMILY FORMATION; PREMARITAL PREGNANCY; FATHERS; OPPORTUNITIES; CHILDBEARING; RESOLUTION; EMPLOYMENT; AFDC AB A decline in the likelihood that a nonmarital pregnancy results in marriage has contributed to the dramatic rise in the nonmarital birth ratio since the 1960s in the United States. This study examines the effect of men's characteristics on whether they marry in the event of a nonmarital pregnancy and whether changes in average characteristics and in the effect of men's characteristics have contributed to the decline in the probability of legititics The results indicate that the characteristics associated with the probability elf marriage differ for Whites and Blacks. Changes over time in men's behavior and in men's average characteristics appear to have lowered the probability of legitimation among White men, but changes in men's behavior appear to hale contributed to the decline in legitimation among Black men. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Dept Res, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. RP Zavodny, M (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Dept Res, 104 Marietta St NW, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. NR 28 TC 11 Z9 11 U1 0 U2 2 PU NATL COUNCIL FAMILY RELATIONS PI MINNEAPOLIS PA 3989 CENTRAL AVE NE #550, MINNEAPOLIS, MN 55421 USA SN 0022-2445 J9 J MARRIAGE FAM JI J. Marriage Fam. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 61 IS 3 BP 764 EP 773 DI 10.2307/353576 PG 10 WC Family Studies; Sociology SC Family Studies; Sociology GA 235PW UT WOS:000082552600017 ER PT J AU Christiano, LJ Harrison, SG AF Christiano, LJ Harrison, SG TI Chaos, sunspots and automatic stabilizers SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE business cycle; fiscal policy; stabilization; multiple equilibria; regime switching ID BUSINESS CYCLES; MONOPOLISTIC COMPETITION; INDETERMINACY; GROWTH; EXTERNALITIES; EQUILIBRIA AB We consider a real business cycle model with an externality in production. Depending on parameter values, the model has sunspot equilibria, cyclical and chaotic equilibria, and equilibria with deterministic or stochastic regime switching. We study the implications of this model environment for automatic stabilizer tax systems. Stabilization is desirable because the efficient allocations are characterized by constant employment and output growth. We identify an automatic stabilizer income tax-subsidy schedule with two properties: (i) it specifies the tax rate to be an increasing function of aggregate employment, and (ii) earnings are subsidized when aggregate employment is at its efficient level. The first feature eliminates inefficient, fluctuating equilibria, while the second induces agents to internalize the externality. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B,V. All rights reserved. JEL classification: E13; E32; E62. C1 Northwestern Univ, Dept Econ, Evanston, IL 60208 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, Chicago, IL 60604 USA. Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Columbia Univ Barnard Coll, New York, NY 10027 USA. RP Christiano, LJ (reprint author), Northwestern Univ, Dept Econ, Evanston, IL 60208 USA. NR 35 TC 54 Z9 56 U1 1 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 44 IS 1 BP 3 EP 31 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(99)00015-X PG 29 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 231DP UT WOS:000082293100001 ER PT J AU Sniderman, M AF Sniderman, M TI The role of central banks in money and payments systems - A conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland October 28-30, 1998 - Preface SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. RP Sniderman, M (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 1 U2 2 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 31 IS 3 BP 433 EP 434 PN 2 PG 2 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 226UX UT WOS:000082041700001 ER PT J AU Altig, DE AF Altig, DE TI The role of central banks in money and payments systems - A conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland October 28-30, 1998 - Introduction SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material ID PANICS; PRICES; SEARCH C1 Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. RP Altig, DE (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. NR 9 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 1 U2 3 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 31 IS 3 BP 435 EP 442 DI 10.2307/2601061 PN 2 PG 8 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 226UX UT WOS:000082041700002 ER PT J AU Cavalcanti, RD Wallace, N AF Cavalcanti, RD Wallace, N TI Inside and outside money as alternative media of exchange SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID PRICES; SEARCH AB We study a random-matching model of money in which a subset of people, called bankers, have: known histories and the rest, called nonbankers, have unknown histories. Earlier, we showed that if there are no outside assets, then an optimal arrangement has bankers issuing objects, banknotes, that are used in trades involving nonbankers. Here, the same model is used to compare such exclusive use of inside money to the exclusive use of outside money. We show that the set of implementable outcomes using outside money is a strict subset of the set using inside money. C1 Penn State Univ, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Dept Res, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. RP Cavalcanti, RD (reprint author), Penn State Univ, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. NR 8 TC 63 Z9 65 U1 0 U2 9 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 31 IS 3 BP 443 EP 457 DI 10.2307/2601062 PN 2 PG 15 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 226UX UT WOS:000082041700003 ER PT J AU Craig, B AF Craig, B TI Comment on Inside and outside money as alternative media of exchange SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Dept Res, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. RP Craig, B (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Dept Res, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. NR 3 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 5 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 31 IS 3 BP 458 EP 460 DI 10.2307/2601063 PN 2 PG 3 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 226UX UT WOS:000082041700004 ER PT J AU Chang, R AF Chang, R TI Comment on Private money SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. RP Chang, R (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. NR 5 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 31 IS 3 BP 492 EP 498 DI 10.2307/2601066 PN 2 PG 7 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 226UX UT WOS:000082041700007 ER PT J AU Chari, VV AF Chari, VV TI Comment on Private money SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55401 USA. RP Chari, VV (reprint author), Univ Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. NR 3 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 31 IS 3 BP 498 EP 499 DI 10.2307/2601067 PN 2 PG 2 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 226UX UT WOS:000082041700008 ER PT J AU Kahn, CM Roberds, W AF Kahn, CM Roberds, W TI Demandable debts as a means of payment: Banknotes versus checks SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID INTEREST-RATES; UNITED-STATES; FREE BANKING; LIQUIDITY; RUNS AB We examine whether transactable forms of privately issued, de mandable debt are better used as "banknotes" or "checks." The distinction between the two is that a check must be redeemed by the issuing bank with each use whereas a banknote can circulate. We find that the answer to the question depends on the cost of early redemption. If this cost is small, banknotes will not circulate so the question is moot. If this cost is large, incentive problems; may pre vent the circulation of banknotes. For intermediate values of the early redemption cost, banknotes will be preferred over checks. C1 Univ Illinois, Chicago, IL 60680 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Atlanta, GA USA. RP Kahn, CM (reprint author), Univ Illinois, Chicago, IL 60680 USA. NR 28 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 1 U2 6 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 31 IS 3 BP 500 EP 525 DI 10.2307/2601068 PN 2 PG 26 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 226UX UT WOS:000082041700009 ER PT J AU McAndrews, J AF McAndrews, J TI Comment on Demandable debt as a means of payment: Banknotes versus checks SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP McAndrews, J (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 1 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 31 IS 3 BP 526 EP 528 DI 10.2307/2601069 PN 2 PG 3 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 226UX UT WOS:000082041700010 ER PT J AU Lagunoff, R Schreft, SL AF Lagunoff, R Schreft, SL TI Financial fragility with rational and irrational exuberance SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article AB This article formalizes investor rationality and irrationality, exuberance and apprehension, to consider the implications of belief formation for the fragility of an economy's financial structure. The model presented generates a financial structure with portfolio linkages that make it susceptible to contagious financial crises, despite the absence of coordination failures. Investors forecast the likelihood of loss from contagion and may shift preemptively to safer portfolios, breaking portfolio linkages in the process. The entire financial structure collapses when the last group of investors reallocates their portfolios. If some investors are irrationally exuberant, the financial structure remains intact longer. In fact, financial collapse occurs sooner when almost all investors are rationally exuberant than when they are irrationally exuberant. Additionally, a financial crisis initiated by real shocks is indistinguishable from one caused solely by the presence of rationally apprehensive investors in a fundamentally sound economy. Policies that make portfolio linkages more resilient can improve welfare. C1 Georgetown Univ, Washington, DC 20057 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Kansas City, Kansas City, MO 64198 USA. RP Lagunoff, R (reprint author), Georgetown Univ, Washington, DC 20057 USA. NR 10 TC 12 Z9 12 U1 0 U2 2 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 31 IS 3 BP 531 EP 560 DI 10.2307/2601071 PN 2 PG 30 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 226UX UT WOS:000082041700012 ER PT J AU Kocherlakota, N AF Kocherlakota, N TI Comment on Financial fragility with rational and irrational exuberance SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55401 USA. RP Kocherlakota, N (reprint author), Univ Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. NR 3 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 31 IS 3 BP 561 EP 563 DI 10.2307/2601072 PN 2 PG 3 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 226UX UT WOS:000082041700013 ER PT J AU Weinberg, J AF Weinberg, J TI Comment on Financial fragility with rational and irrational exuberance SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Fed Reserve Bank Richmond, Richmond, VA 23219 USA. RP Weinberg, J (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Richmond, Richmond, VA 23219 USA. NR 4 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 31 IS 3 BP 563 EP 567 DI 10.2307/2601073 PN 2 PG 5 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 226UX UT WOS:000082041700014 ER PT J AU Champ, B Freeman, S Weber, WE AF Champ, B Freeman, S Weber, WE TI Redemption costs and interest rates under the US National Banking System SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Payments System Workshop, Federal-Reserve-Bank-of-Cleveland Meeting CY DEC, 1997 CL CLEVELAND, OHIO SP Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland ID PANICS AB Interest rates under the U.S. National Banking System (1863-1914) appear to imply that banks failed to exploit an arbitrage opportunity for two reasons: Yields on government bands exceeded the tax rate on note issue by approximately 150 basis points, and short-term interest rates varied seasonally. This paper examines whether note redemption costs can explain observed interest rates. We present a model in which redemption costs create a spread between the tax rate on note issue and bond yields and in which temporary seasonal fluctuations in currency demand generate seasonal movements in short-term. interest rates. Calibration of the model to actual data lends support to the model's implications. Further, interest rates are shown not to vary seasonally when banks do not incur the costs of note redemption. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. Univ Texas, Austin, TX 78712 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN USA. Univ Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. RP Champ, B (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. NR 31 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 1 U2 6 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 31 IS 3 BP 568 EP 589 DI 10.2307/2601074 PN 2 PG 22 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 226UX UT WOS:000082041700015 ER PT J AU Lacker, JM AF Lacker, JM TI Comment on redemption costs and interest rates under the US national banking system SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Richmond, VA 23219 USA. RP Lacker, JM (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Richmond, VA 23219 USA. NR 4 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 2 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 31 IS 3 BP 590 EP 593 DI 10.2307/2601075 PN 2 PG 4 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 226UX UT WOS:000082041700016 ER PT J AU Smith, BD Weber, WE AF Smith, BD Weber, WE TI Private money creation and the Suffolk Banking System SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID INTERMEDIATION; MODEL AB Many have argued that private provision of close currency substitutes may lead to large scale indeterminacies and excessive economic fluctuations. Others argue that money creation can be "left to the market." Adherents of this viewpoint often point to the Suffolk Banking System as an example of a well-functioning system. of private money creation. We provide a framework for analyzing these notions, and for modeling the monetary consequences of the Suffolk system. This system resolves some, but not all indeterminacies. It also can raise steady-state welfare, but may substantially enhance volatility. The model's predictions are consistent with historical evidence. C1 Univ Texas, Austin, TX 78712 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. Univ Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. RP Smith, BD (reprint author), Univ Texas, Austin, TX 78712 USA. NR 27 TC 13 Z9 13 U1 3 U2 6 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 31 IS 3 BP 624 EP 659 DI 10.2307/2601080 PN 2 PG 36 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 226UX UT WOS:000082041700021 ER PT J AU Green, EJ AF Green, EJ TI Panel: Thoughts on the future of payments and central banking SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. RP Green, EJ (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. NR 1 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 31 IS 3 BP 668 EP 670 DI 10.2307/2601083 PN 2 PG 3 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 226UX UT WOS:000082041700024 ER PT J AU McAndrews, JJ AF McAndrews, JJ TI Panel: Thoughts on the future of payments and central banking SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP McAndrews, JJ (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 5 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 31 IS 3 BP 671 EP 673 DI 10.2307/2601084 PN 2 PG 3 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 226UX UT WOS:000082041700025 ER PT J AU Rolnick, AJ AF Rolnick, AJ TI Panel: Thoughts on the future of payments and central banking SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. RP Rolnick, AJ (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. NR 0 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 1 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 31 IS 3 BP 674 EP 676 DI 10.2307/2601085 PN 2 PG 3 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 226UX UT WOS:000082041700026 ER PT J AU Thomson, JB AF Thomson, JB TI Panel: Thoughts on the future of payments and central banking SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. RP Thomson, JB (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. NR 17 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 31 IS 3 BP 677 EP 681 DI 10.2307/2601086 PN 2 PG 5 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 226UX UT WOS:000082041700027 ER PT J AU Greenspan, A Cohen, D AF Greenspan, A Cohen, D TI Motor vehicle stocks, scrappage, and sales SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article AB This paper offers a framework for forecasting aggregate sales of new motor vehicles; this framework incorporates separate models for the change in the vehicle stock and for the rate of vehicle scrappage. Because this approach requires only a minimal set of assumptions about demographic trends, the state of the economy, consumer "preferences," new vehicle prices and repair costs, and vehicle retirements, it is shown to be especially useful as a macroeconomic forecasting tool. In addition, this paper presents a new historical annual time-series estimate of motor vehicle stocks in the United States. C1 Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Greenspan, A (reprint author), Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 25 TC 23 Z9 25 U1 0 U2 8 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 81 IS 3 BP 369 EP 383 DI 10.1162/003465399558300 PG 15 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA 227GQ UT WOS:000082071700002 ER PT J AU Harrison, P Zhang, HH AF Harrison, P Zhang, HH TI An investigation of the risk and return relation at long horizons SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 1998 Econometric-Society Winter Meeting CY 1998 CL CHICAGO, ILLINOIS SP Econometr Soc ID EXPECTED STOCK RETURNS; ASSET-PRICING MODEL; TEMPORAL BEHAVIOR; DIVIDEND YIELDS; VOLATILITY; MARKET; HETEROSKEDASTICITY; CONSUMPTION; TIME; SUBSTITUTION AB This paper examines the relation between expected stock returns and their conditional volatility over different holding periods and across different states of the economy. Seminonparametric density estimation and Monte Carlo integration are used to obtain the expected returns and conditional volatility at various holding intervals. We uncover a significantly positive risk and return relation at long holding intervals, such as one and two years, which is nonexistent at short holding periods such as one month. We also show that the existing finding in the literature of a negative risk and return relation may be attributable to misspecification. C1 Brandeis Univ, Waltham, MA 02254 USA. Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Harrison, P (reprint author), Brandeis Univ, Waltham, MA 02254 USA. NR 45 TC 43 Z9 45 U1 2 U2 6 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 81 IS 3 BP 399 EP 408 DI 10.1162/003465399558337 PG 10 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA 227GQ UT WOS:000082071700005 ER PT J AU Clark, TE AF Clark, TE TI The responses of prices at different stages of production to monetary policy shocks SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID BUSINESS-CYCLE; MARGINAL COST; FUNDS; MODEL; REAL AB This paper examines the responses of prices at different stages of production to monetary policy shocks. In aggregate price analysis, the VAR of Christiano et al. (1996a, 1996b) is used to identify the policy shock as the federal funds rate innovation and trace out the responses of prices. In disaggregate price analysis, the adjustment of prices is examined by comparing inflation before and after a recent policy tightening identified by Romer and Romer (1989, 1992). At early stages of production, a monetary tightening causes input prices to fall more rapidly and by a larger amount than output prices. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Kansas City, Kansas City, MO 64198 USA. RP Clark, TE (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Kansas City, Kansas City, MO 64198 USA. NR 40 TC 24 Z9 26 U1 0 U2 2 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 81 IS 3 BP 420 EP 433 DI 10.1162/003465399558355 PG 14 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA 227GQ UT WOS:000082071700007 ER PT J AU Ludvigson, S AF Ludvigson, S TI Consumption and credit: A model of time-varying liquidity constraints SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID PERMANENT INCOME HYPOTHESIS; BEHAVIOR AB This paper studies the optimal consumption behavior of individuals who face borrowing limitations that vary stochastically with their income. This framework is motivated by new empirical evidence that I document in U.S. aggregate data: predictable growth in consumer credit is significantly related to consumption growth, a finding that is inconsistent with existing models of consumer behavior. The time-varying liquidity constraint model considered here correctly predicts two key properties of the U.S. aggregate data: the correlation of consumption growth with predictable credit growth documented in this paper, and the well-known correlation between consumption growth and predictable income growth that has been documented extensively elsewhere. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Ludvigson, S (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 30 TC 37 Z9 38 U1 2 U2 6 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 81 IS 3 BP 434 EP 447 DI 10.1162/003465399558364 PG 14 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA 227GQ UT WOS:000082071700008 ER PT J AU Gordy, MB AF Gordy, MB TI Hedging winner's curse with multiple bids: Evidence from the Portuguese treasury bill auction SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID BIDDING STRATEGIES; INFORMATION; RISK AB Auctions of government securities typically permit bidders to enter multiple price-quantity bids. Despite the widespread adoption of this institutional feature and its use by bidders, the motivations behind its use and its effects on auction outcomes are not well understood theoretically and have been little explored empirically. This paper proposes that bidders use multiple bids to adjust for winner's curse: By spreading her bids, a bidder aligns her outcome more closely to the aggregate outcome of the auction. This hypothesis is tested using bidding data from treasury bill auctions in Portugal. I find that, ceteris paribus, a bidder submits a greater number of bids and disperses prices on these bids more widely when there is a greater potential for winner's curse. In particular, both these measures of bid-spreading increase with the volatility of market interest rates and the expected number of participating well-informed bidders. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Gordy, MB (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. OI Gordy, Michael/0000-0002-5229-4608 NR 44 TC 12 Z9 12 U1 0 U2 2 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 81 IS 3 BP 448 EP 465 DI 10.1162/003465399558373 PG 18 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA 227GQ UT WOS:000082071700009 ER PT J AU Cramton, P Gunderson, M Tracy, J AF Cramton, P Gunderson, M Tracy, J TI The effect of collective bargaining legislation on strikes and wages SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS; UNITED-STATES; INFORMATION; CONTRACT AB Using Canadian data on large, private-sector contract negotiations from January, 1967, to March, 1993, we find that strikes and wages are substantially influenced by labor policy. The data indicate that conciliation policies have largely been ineffective in reducing strike costs. In contrast, general contract reopener provisions appear to make both unions and employers better off by reducing negotiation costs without systematically affecting wage settlements. Legislation banning the use of replacement workers appears to lead to significantly higher negotiation costs and redistribution of quasi-rents from employers to unions. C1 Univ Maryland, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. Univ Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada. Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Cramton, P (reprint author), Univ Maryland, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. NR 32 TC 18 Z9 18 U1 0 U2 5 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD AUG PY 1999 VL 81 IS 3 BP 475 EP 487 DI 10.1162/003465399558238 PG 13 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA 227GQ UT WOS:000082071700011 ER PT J AU Humphrey, TM AF Humphrey, TM TI Exonerating Wicksell: A comment on Ahiakpor SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND SOCIOLOGY LA English DT Article AB James Ahiakpor correctly identifies classical writers as the true originators of the cumulative process analysis usually attributed to Knut Wicksell. Ahiakpor fails, however, to dislodge Wicksell from his place in the pantheon of monetary theorists. Wicksell contributed at least five innovations that advanced the cumulative process model far beyond its classical prototype. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Richmond, VA 23219 USA. RP Humphrey, TM (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Richmond, VA 23219 USA. NR 9 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU AMER J ECON SOCIOLOGY INC PI NEW YORK PA 41 EAST 72ND STREET, NEW YORK, NY 10021 USA SN 0002-9246 J9 AM J ECON SOCIOL JI Am. J. Econ. Sociol. PD JUL PY 1999 VL 58 IS 3 BP 459 EP 465 DI 10.1111/j.1536-7150.1999.tb03297.x PG 7 WC Economics; Sociology SC Business & Economics; Sociology GA 230XY UT WOS:000082278000007 ER PT J AU Kay, SJ AF Kay, SJ TI Unexpected privatizations - Politics and social security reform in the southern cone SO COMPARATIVE POLITICS LA English DT Article AB As populations age, governments in many countries are considering social security privatization. This policy experiment first became politically viable in Latin America. It threatens to reduce benefits for traditionally powerful constituencies and thus generates fierce political opposition from labor, pensioners, and professional groups with a stake in the old system. This article explores pluralist and institutionalist explanations of the divergent paths of social security reform in Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay. The degree to which political institutions provided interest groups with opportunities to act as veto players was a fundamental determinant of policy outcomes. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Latin Amer Res Grp, Atlanta, GA USA. RP Kay, SJ (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Latin Amer Res Grp, Atlanta, GA USA. NR 72 TC 34 Z9 36 U1 1 U2 2 PU CITY UNIV NEW YORK PI NEW YORK PA COMPARATIVE POLITICS 33 W 42ND ST, NEW YORK, NY 10036 USA SN 0010-4159 J9 COMP POLIT JI Comp. Polit. PD JUL PY 1999 VL 31 IS 4 BP 403 EP + DI 10.2307/422237 PG 21 WC Political Science SC Government & Law GA 214JP UT WOS:000081325100002 PM 20120545 ER PT J AU McAndrews, JJ AF McAndrews, JJ TI E-money and payment system risks SO CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY LA English DT Article AB The rapid development of new electronic systems of payment, or e-money offers society many potential benefits even as it poses new types of risk for system operators. The risks to which e-money is most subject-operational, fraud, and legal risk-pose new challenges to payment system risk control. A review of instances of failures in similar systems suggests some useful lessons for the successful development of e-money. (JEL E42, G2). C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Res & Market Anal Grp, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP McAndrews, JJ (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Res & Market Anal Grp, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 23 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 4 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 USA SN 1074-3529 J9 CONTEMP ECON POLICY JI Contemp. Econ. Policy PD JUL PY 1999 VL 17 IS 3 BP 348 EP 357 PG 10 WC Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA 229LM UT WOS:000082196100006 ER PT J AU Barrow, L AF Barrow, L TI An analysis of women's return-to-work decisions following first birth SO ECONOMIC INQUIRY LA English DT Article AB Women's labor force participation has increased sharply over the last two decades, particularly for married women with young children. This suggests women are spending less time out of the labor force for child bearing and rearing. Using the detailed information available in the NLSY: I explore women's decisions to return to work within one year of their first child's birth, focusing on the effect of child care costs. Consistent with economic theory, women facing lower child care costs are more likely to return to work as are women with higher potential wages and lower family income from other sources. (JEL J0). C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Chicago, IL 60604 USA. RP Barrow, L (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Chicago, IL 60604 USA. NR 27 TC 18 Z9 18 U1 0 U2 3 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 USA SN 0095-2583 J9 ECON INQ JI Econ. Inq. PD JUL PY 1999 VL 37 IS 3 BP 432 EP 451 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 229NL UT WOS:000082200600004 ER PT J AU Clouse, JA Dow, JP AF Clouse, JA Dow, JP TI Fixed costs and the behavior of the federal funds rate SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE funds rate; reserves; discount window AB This paper presents an equilibrium model of the federal funds market that ties movements in the funds rate to changes in the supply of reserves and to a fixed cost facing banks that borrow at the discount window. It is found that the existence of the fixed cost is capable of explaining a number of features of the funds market. In particular, it is critical for explaining occasional instances of extremely high funds rates. It also provides an explanation for heterogeneous behavior across banks towards the discount window and for higher average funds rates at the end of maintenance periods. (C) 1999 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Calif State Univ Northridge, Dept Econ, Northridge, CA 91330 USA. Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Dow, JP (reprint author), Calif State Univ Northridge, Dept Econ, Northridge, CA 91330 USA. NR 8 TC 16 Z9 19 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD JUL PY 1999 VL 23 IS 7 BP 1015 EP 1029 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00128-9 PG 15 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 212NT UT WOS:000081223700002 ER PT J AU Koop, G Potter, SM AF Koop, G Potter, SM TI Dynamic asymmetries in US unemployment SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS LA English DT Article DE Bayesian; nonlinearity; threshold autoregression; unemployment ID BUSINESS-CYCLE; NUISANCE PARAMETER; TIME-SERIES; INFERENCE; OUTPUT; MODEL AB We examine dynamic asymmetries in U.S. unemployment using nonlinear time series models and Bayesian methods. We find strong statistical evidence in favor of a two-regime threshold autoregressive model. Empirical results indicate that, once we take into account both parameter and model uncertainty, there are economically interesting asymmetries in the unemployment rate. One finding of particular interest is that shocks that lower the unemployment rate tend to have a smaller effect than shocks that raise the unemployment rate. This finding is consistent with unemployment rises being sudden and falls gradual. C1 Univ Edinburgh, Dept Econ, Edinburgh EH8 9JY, Midlothian, Scotland. Fed Reserve Bank New York, Domest Res Funct, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Koop, G (reprint author), Univ Edinburgh, Dept Econ, Edinburgh EH8 9JY, Midlothian, Scotland. EM g.koop@ed.ac.uk; simon.potter@ny.frb.org NR 36 TC 68 Z9 72 U1 0 U2 4 PU AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC PI ALEXANDRIA PA 732 N WASHINGTON ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314-1943 USA SN 0735-0015 J9 J BUS ECON STAT JI J. Bus. Econ. Stat. PD JUL PY 1999 VL 17 IS 3 BP 298 EP 312 DI 10.2307/1392288 PG 15 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Mathematics GA 207KE UT WOS:000080935400003 ER PT J AU Adams, RM Berger, AN Sickles, RC AF Adams, RM Berger, AN Sickles, RC TI Semiparametric approaches to stochastic panel frontiers with applications in the banking industry SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS LA English DT Article DE bank efficiency; distance frontier; efficient estimation; panel data; semiparametric estimation ID PROFIT FUNCTION; EFFICIENCY; INEFFICIENCIES; ECONOMIES; SCALE; COST AB This article introduces new modeling and estimation methods designed to help mitigate problems of endogeneity and misspecification. We use an output distance function to model the technology of a multioutput firm. We also use results from Park and Simar and Park, Sickles, and Simar on semiparametric efficient estimation of panel models to estimate multioutput stochastic distance frontiers, for which the distribution of the effects and a subgroup of regressors is not specified. Furthermore, we introduce a new semiparametric method that makes minimal assumptions on the functional form of inputs in the distance function. C1 US Dept Justice, Antitrust Div, Washington, DC 20530 USA. Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Rice Univ, Dept Econ, Houston, TX 77005 USA. RP Adams, RM (reprint author), US Dept Justice, Antitrust Div, Washington, DC 20530 USA. EM robert.adams2@usdoj.gov; aberger@frb.gov; rsickles@rice.edu NR 36 TC 24 Z9 24 U1 2 U2 6 PU AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC PI ALEXANDRIA PA 732 N WASHINGTON ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314-1943 USA SN 0735-0015 J9 J BUS ECON STAT JI J. Bus. Econ. Stat. PD JUL PY 1999 VL 17 IS 3 BP 349 EP 358 DI 10.2307/1392292 PG 10 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Mathematics GA 207KE UT WOS:000080935400007 ER PT J AU Tannenwald, R AF Tannenwald, R TI Fiscal disparity among the states revisited SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID LOCAL-TAXES; DEDUCTIBILITY C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Tannenwald, R (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 24 TC 20 Z9 20 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JUL-AUG PY 1999 BP 3 EP 25 PG 23 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 238NJ UT WOS:000082716100001 ER PT J AU Kodrzycki, YK AF Kodrzycki, YK TI Geographic shifts in higher education SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Kodrzycki, YK (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 25 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JUL-AUG PY 1999 BP 27 EP 47 PG 21 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 238NJ UT WOS:000082716100002 ER PT J AU Bleakley, H Ferris, AE Fuhrer, JC AF Bleakley, H Ferris, AE Fuhrer, JC TI New data on worker flows during business cycles SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID LABOR-MARKET DYNAMICS; UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION C1 MIT, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Bleakley, H (reprint author), MIT, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. RI Fuhrer, Jeff/F-8852-2013 NR 26 TC 27 Z9 27 U1 0 U2 4 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JUL-AUG PY 1999 BP 49 EP 76 PG 28 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 238NJ UT WOS:000082716100003 ER PT J AU Fernald, JG AF Fernald, JG TI Roads to prosperity? Assessing the link between public capital and productivity SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT; MANUFACTURING-INDUSTRIES; UNITED-STATES; INFRASTRUCTURE; EXPENDITURE; PERFORMANCE; GROWTH AB Does the positive correlation between infrastructure and productivity reflect causation? If so, in which direction? I find that when growth in roads (the largest component of infrastructure) changes, productivity growth changes disproportionately in U.S. industries with more vehicles. That vehicle-intensive industries benefit more from road-building suggests that roads are productive. At the margin, however, road investments do not appear unusually productive, Intuitively, the interstate system was highly productive, but a second one would not be. Road-building thus explains much of the productivity slowdown through a one-time, unrepeatable productivity boost in the 1950's and 1960's, (JEL E62, O47, R53). C1 Fed Reserve Board, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Fernald, JG (reprint author), Fed Reserve Board, Div Int Finance, Stop 20, Washington, DC 20551 USA. EM john.g.fernald@frb.gov NR 34 TC 198 Z9 199 U1 3 U2 18 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD JUN PY 1999 VL 89 IS 3 BP 619 EP 638 DI 10.1257/aer.89.3.619 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 210AM UT WOS:000081083000013 ER PT J AU Porter, RD Weinbach, GC AF Porter, RD Weinbach, GC TI Currency ratios and US underground economic activity SO ECONOMICS LETTERS LA English DT Article DE currency ratios; underground economic activity; retail sweep programs; overseas US currency AB Cagan's classic currency ratio suggests that underground activity in the U.S. surged starting in 1994. We show that a ratio adjusted to take care of two distorting developments did not surge, and that the adjusted ratio and interest rates are strongly correlated. Published by Elsevier Science S.A. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Monetary Affairs, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Porter, RD (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Monetary Affairs, Mail Stop 72,20th & Constitut Ave NW, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 12 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA PI LAUSANNE PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND SN 0165-1765 J9 ECON LETT JI Econ. Lett. PD JUN PY 1999 VL 63 IS 3 BP 355 EP 361 DI 10.1016/S0165-1765(99)00035-X PG 7 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 205PX UT WOS:000080830700015 ER PT J AU Corsetti, G Pesenti, P Roubini, N AF Corsetti, G Pesenti, P Roubini, N TI Paper tigers? A model of the Asian crisis SO EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 21st Annual International Seminar on Macroeconomics (ISOM) CY JUN 14-15, 1998 CL LISBON, PORTUGAL SP European Econ Assoc, Natl Bur Econ Res DE moral hazard; balance of payment crisis; international lending; speculative attacks; Asia AB This paper develops an interpretation of the Asian meltdown focused on moral hazard as the common source of overinvestment, excessive external borrowing, and current account deficits. To the extent that foreign creditors are willing to lend to domestic agents against future bail-out revenue from the government, unprofitable projects and cash shortfalls are re-financed through external borrowing. While public deficits need not be high before a crisis, the eventual refusal of foreign creditors to refinance the country's cumulative losses forces the government to step in and guarantee the outstanding stock of external liabilities. To satisfy solvency, the government must then undertake appropriate domestic fiscal reforms, possibly involving recourse to seigniorage revenues. Expectations of inflationary financing thus cause a collapse of the currency and anticipate the event of a financial crisis. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. Yale Univ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA. Univ Bologna, Bologna, Italy. Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. NYU, New York, NY 10003 USA. Ctr Econ Policy Res, London SW1Y 6LA, England. RP Pesenti, P (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, 33 Liberty St, New York, NY 10045 USA. OI Corsetti, Giancarlo/0000-0001-8965-9853 NR 42 TC 116 Z9 116 U1 1 U2 11 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0014-2921 J9 EUR ECON REV JI Eur. Econ. Rev. PD JUN PY 1999 VL 43 IS 7 BP 1211 EP 1236 DI 10.1016/S0014-2921(99)00017-3 PG 26 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 203WT UT WOS:000080731700002 ER PT J AU Mehran, H Taggart, RA Yermack, D AF Mehran, H Taggart, RA Yermack, D TI CEO ownership, leasing, and debt financing SO FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB In this empirical study, we examine the effect of CEO stock ownership on leasing. Although financial contracting theory suggests that ownership structure is potentially an important determinant of debt financing and leasing, its effect on leasing has not been previously explored. We also control for explanatory factors that have been found important in other leasing studies. We find that CEO ownership is positively related to companies' leasing and debt financing activity, consistent with contracting theory. This suggests that CEOs with large ownership stakes engage in more leasing to reduce their exposure to obsolescence and other asset-specific risks. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. NYU, New York, NY USA. RP Mehran, H (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 30 TC 11 Z9 11 U1 0 U2 5 PU FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT ASSOC PI TAMPA PA UNIV SOUTH FLORIDA, COLL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, 4202 E FOWLER, TAMPA, FL 33620 USA SN 0046-3892 J9 FINANC MANAGE JI Financ. Manage. PD SUM PY 1999 VL 28 IS 2 BP 5 EP + DI 10.2307/3666191 PG 11 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 238YA UT WOS:000082741300001 ER PT J AU Lacker, JM Weinberg, JA AF Lacker, JM Weinberg, JA TI Coalition-proof allocations in adverse-selection economies SO GENEVA PAPERS ON RISK AND INSURANCE THEORY LA English DT Article DE adverse selection; coalition proof; insurance ID INSURANCE MARKETS; NASH EQUILIBRIA; INFORMATION AB We reexamine the canonical adverse selection insurance economy first studied by Rothschild and Stiglitz [1976]. We define blocking in a way that takes private information into account and define a coalition-proof correspondence as a mapping from coalitions to allocations with the property that allocations are in the correspondence, if and only if, they are not blocked by any other allocations in the correspondence for any subcoalition. We prove that the Miyazaki allocation-the Pareto-optimal allocation (possibly cross-subsidized) most preferred by low-risk agents-is coalition-proof. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Richmond, Res Dept, Richmond, VA 23261 USA. RP Lacker, JM (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Richmond, Res Dept, Richmond, VA 23261 USA. NR 17 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 1 U2 4 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0926-4957 J9 GENEVA PAP RISK INS JI Geneva Pap. Risk Insur. Theory PD JUN PY 1999 VL 24 IS 1 BP 5 EP 17 DI 10.1023/A:1008762430952 PG 13 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 227GY UT WOS:000082073800001 ER PT J AU Zha, T AF Zha, T TI Block recursion and structural vector autoregressions SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS LA English DT Article DE structural VAR; contemporaneously recursive blocks; identifying restrictions; likelihood; finite samples; posterior; block Monte Carlo methods ID MONETARY-POLICY; EXCHANGE-RATES; OPEN-ECONOMY; SHOCKS AB In applications of structural VAR modeling, finite-sample properties may be difficult to obtain when certain identifying restrictions are imposed on lagged relationships. As a result, even though imposing some lagged restrictions makes economic sense, lagged relationships are often left unrestricted to make statistical inference more convenient. This paper develops block Monte Carlo methods to obtain both maximum likelihood estimates and exact Bayesian inference when certain types of restrictions are imposed on the lag structure. These methods are applied to two examples to illustrate the importance of imposing restrictions on lagged relationships. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. JEL classification: C11; C15; C32; E52. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Dept Res, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. RP Zha, T (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Dept Res, 104 Marietta Set NW, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. NR 45 TC 45 Z9 46 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA PI LAUSANNE PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND SN 0304-4076 J9 J ECONOMETRICS JI J. Econom. PD JUN PY 1999 VL 90 IS 2 BP 291 EP 316 DI 10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00045-1 PG 26 WC Economics; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA 188RP UT WOS:000079862500006 ER PT J AU Guo, JT Lansing, KJ AF Guo, JT Lansing, KJ TI Optimal taxation of capital income with imperfectly competitive product markets SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article DE fiscal policy; optimal taxation ID PERFECT-FORESIGHT MODEL; SUPPLY-SIDE ECONOMICS; OPTIMAL FISCAL-POLICY; BUSINESS-CYCLE; REDISTRIBUTIVE TAXATION; GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM; INCREASING RETURNS; ENDOGENOUS GROWTH; INDIVISIBLE LABOR; WELFARE COST AB We show that the steady-state optimal tax on capital income can be negative, positive, or zero in a neoclassical growth model that allows for imperfectly competitive product markets. The sign of the optimal tax rate depends crucially on (1) the degree of monopoly power, (2) the extent to which monopoly profits can be taxed, (3) the size of the depreciation allowance, and (4) the magnitude of government expenditures. For an empirically plausible set of parameters, we find that the steady-state optimal capital tax can range between - 10 and 22%. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserv Bank San Francisco, Dept Res, San Francisco, CA 94120 USA. Univ Calif Riverside, Dept Econ, Riverside, CA 92521 USA. RP Lansing, KJ (reprint author), Fed Reserv Bank San Francisco, Dept Res, POB 7702, San Francisco, CA 94120 USA. NR 55 TC 28 Z9 28 U1 0 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD JUN PY 1999 VL 23 IS 7 BP 967 EP 995 DI 10.1016/S0165-1889(98)00047-5 PG 29 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 207JU UT WOS:000080934400003 ER PT J AU Kozicki, S AF Kozicki, S TI Multivariate detrending under common trend restrictions: Implications for business cycle research SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article DE Hodrick-Prescott filter; business cycle measurement; common trend ID TIME-SERIES; TRANSITORY COMPONENTS; STOCHASTIC TRENDS; FLUCTUATIONS; PERMANENT AB This paper outlines a methodology to detrend multiple time series under common trend restrictions. The same filters used to construct the estimated trend in univariate exercises are shown to be appropriate in multivariate studies with a single common trend. However, to estimate the common trend in the multivariate case, the filter is applied to a linear combination of series rather than to each series individually. An empirical example and simulation exercises illustrate the implications of common trend detrending for measurement of business cycle properties. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Kansas City, Kansas City, MO 64198 USA. RP Kozicki, S (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Kansas City, 925 Grand Blvd, Kansas City, MO 64198 USA. NR 23 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD JUN PY 1999 VL 23 IS 7 BP 997 EP 1028 DI 10.1016/S0165-1889(98)00048-7 PG 32 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 207JU UT WOS:000080934400004 ER PT J AU Iyigun, MF Owen, AL AF Iyigun, MF Owen, AL TI Entrepreneurs, professionals, and growth SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC GROWTH LA English DT Article DE education; work experience; self-employment; growth ID SELF-EMPLOYMENT; LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS; EMPIRICAL ASPECTS; ECONOMIC-GROWTH; INEQUALITY; MOBILITY; CHOICE AB We examine the implications for growth and development of the existence of two types of human capital: entrepreneurial and professional. Entrepreneurs accumulate human capital through a work-experience intensive process, whereas professionals' human capital accumulation is education-intensive. Moreover, the return to entrepreneurship is uncertain. We show how skill-biased technological progress leads to changes in the composition of aggregate human capital; as technology improves, individuals devote less time to the accumulation of human capital through work experience and more to the accumulation of human capital through professional training. Thus, our model explains why entrepreneurs play a relatively more important role in intermediate-income countries and professionals are relatively more abundant in richer economies. It also shows that those countries that initially have too little of either entrepreneurial or professional human capital may end up in a development trap. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Hamilton Coll, Clinton, NY 13323 USA. RP Iyigun, MF (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 31 TC 25 Z9 25 U1 0 U2 9 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 1381-4338 J9 J ECON GROWTH JI J. Econ. Growth PD JUN PY 1999 VL 4 IS 2 BP 213 EP 232 DI 10.1023/A:1009806622022 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 286KF UT WOS:000085442600004 ER PT J AU Velde, F AF Velde, F TI Economy and nature in the fourteenth century: Money, market exchange and the emergence of scientific thought. SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY LA English DT Book Review C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Chicago, IL 60604 USA. RP Velde, F (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Chicago, IL 60604 USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS PI NEW YORK PA 40 WEST 20TH STREET, NEW YORK, NY 10011-4211 USA SN 0022-0507 J9 J ECON HIST JI J. Econ. Hist. PD JUN PY 1999 VL 59 IS 2 BP 505 EP 506 PG 2 WC Economics; History; History Of Social Sciences SC Business & Economics; History; Social Sciences - Other Topics GA 207VH UT WOS:000080956100049 ER PT J AU Neely, CJ Weller, PA AF Neely, CJ Weller, PA TI Technical trading rules in the European Monetary System SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE LA English DT Article DE technical analysis; genetic programming; trading rules; exchange rates; European monetary System; target zones ID FOREIGN-EXCHANGE MARKET; PROFITS AB Using genetic programming, we find trading rules that generate significant excess returns for three of four EMS exchange rates over the out-of-sample period 1986-1996, Permitting the rules to use information about the interest rate differential proved to be important. The reduction in volatility resulting from the imposition of a narrower band may reduce trading rule profitability. Our results cannot be duplicated by commonly used moving average rules, filter rules or by two rules designed to exploit known features of target zone rates. There is no evidence that the excess returns are compensation for bearing systematic risk. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Dept Res, St Louis, MO 63102 USA. Univ Iowa, Henry B Tippie Coll Business Adm, Dept Finance, Iowa City, IA 52242 USA. RP Neely, CJ (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Dept Res, St Louis, MO 63102 USA. RI Neely, Christopher/I-5749-2016 OI Neely, Christopher/0000-0003-2852-9419 NR 16 TC 35 Z9 35 U1 0 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD PI OXFORD PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, OXON, ENGLAND SN 0261-5606 J9 J INT MONEY FINANC JI J. Int. Money Finan. PD JUN PY 1999 VL 18 IS 3 BP 429 EP 458 DI 10.1016/S0261-5606(99)85005-0 PG 30 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 202HT UT WOS:000080646800005 ER PT J AU Fleming, MJ Remolona, EM AF Fleming, MJ Remolona, EM TI What moves bond prices? Largely public information about the economy. SO JOURNAL OF PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID STOCK-PRICES; NEWS; VOLATILITY; MARKETS AB This article takes a close look at a year in the U.S. Treasury securities market and tries to explain the sharpest price changes. The authors attribute each of the twenty-five largest price shocks during the August 1993 to August 1994 period to a just-released macroeconomic announcement. They also measure the bond market's average reaction to various announcements and the reaction to surprises in the announcements' headline numbers. The strongest responses are found to come from the employment, producer price index, and fed funds target rate announcements. Significant responses to U.S. Treasury security auctions results are documented for the first time. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. Bank Int Settlements, Basel, Switzerland. RP Fleming, MJ (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 15 TC 15 Z9 15 U1 1 U2 8 PU INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR INC PI NEW YORK PA 488 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK, NY 10022 USA SN 0095-4918 J9 J PORTFOLIO MANAGE JI J. Portf. Manage. PD SUM PY 1999 VL 25 IS 4 BP 28 EP + DI 10.3905/jpm.1999.319756 PG 12 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 225MP UT WOS:000081965600003 ER PT J AU Quan, DC Titman, S AF Quan, DC Titman, S TI Do real estate prices and stock prices move together? An international analysis SO REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID RETURNS; MARKET AB The relationship between stock prices and real estate prices has been the subject of substantial debate in both the academic and practitioner literatures. Existing studies have focused on the time series of stock and real estate returns using data from a single country, such as the U.S. By necessity, these studies examine return and price changes over short intervals, creating a bias when property values are smoothed from year to year. Using data from 17 different countries over 14 years, this paper examines the relation between stock returns and changes in property values and rents. Consistent with other country-specific studies, we find that, with the exception of Japan, the contemporaneous relation between yearly real estate price changes and stock returns is not statistically significant. However, when the data are pooled across countries and when we look at longer measurement intervals, a significant relation between stock returns and both rents and value changes becomes apparent. Real estate prices are also found to be significantly influenced by GDP growth rates and provide a good long-term hedge against inflation but a poor year-to-year hedge. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Univ Texas, Grad Sch Business, Austin, TX 78712 USA. RP Quan, DC (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 14 TC 58 Z9 58 U1 6 U2 18 PU AMER REAL ESTATE URBAN ECONOMICS ASSOC PI BLOOMINGTON PA INDIANA UNIV, SCHOOL BUSINESS, RM 428, 1309 E TENTH ST, BLOOMINGTON, IN 47405 USA SN 1080-8620 J9 REAL ESTATE ECON JI Real Estate Econ. PD SUM PY 1999 VL 27 IS 2 BP 183 EP 207 DI 10.1111/1540-6229.00771 PG 25 WC Business, Finance; Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA 210JM UT WOS:000081101400001 ER PT J AU Kennickell, AB Woodburn, RL AF Kennickell, AB Woodburn, RL TI Consistent weight design for the 1989, 1992 and 1995 SCFs, and the distribution of wealth SO REVIEW OF INCOME AND WEALTH LA English DT Article AB Estimates using survey data are determined by two factors: the data collected and the survey weights. This paper discusses the design and calculation of a set of consistent weights for the Surveys of Consumer Finances. Taking both these weights and the multiply-imputed survey data, we look at estimates of changes in the distribution of wealth over the first half of the 1990s. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Kennickell, AB (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 28 TC 26 Z9 26 U1 0 U2 1 PU INT ASSOC RES INCOME WEALTH PI NEW YORK PA NEW YORK UNIVERSITY 269 MERCER ST ROOM 700, NEW YORK, NY 10003 USA SN 0034-6586 J9 REV INCOME WEALTH JI Rev. Income Wealth PD JUN PY 1999 IS 2 BP 193 EP 215 PG 23 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 204YM UT WOS:000080793600004 ER PT J AU Jorgenson, DW Stiroh, KJ AF Jorgenson, DW Stiroh, KJ TI Information technology and growth SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 111th Annual Meeting of the American-Economic-Association CY JAN 03-05, 1999 CL NEW YORK, NY SP Amer Econ Assoc C1 Harvard Univ, Dept Econ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Jorgenson, DW (reprint author), Harvard Univ, Dept Econ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. NR 16 TC 113 Z9 115 U1 0 U2 8 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1999 VL 89 IS 2 BP 109 EP 115 DI 10.1257/aer.89.2.109 PG 7 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 198RT UT WOS:000080438400020 ER PT J AU Goldberg, L Tracy, J Aaronson, S AF Goldberg, L Tracy, J Aaronson, S TI Exchange rates and employment instability: Evidence from matched CPS data SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 111th Annual Meeting of the American-Economic-Association CY JAN 03-05, 1999 CL NEW YORK, NEW YORK SP Amer Econ Assoc C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, Dept Res, New York, NY 10045 USA. NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Columbia Univ, Dept Econ, New York, NY 10027 USA. RP Goldberg, L (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, Dept Res, 33 Liberty St, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 11 TC 11 Z9 12 U1 0 U2 3 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1999 VL 89 IS 2 BP 204 EP 210 DI 10.1257/aer.89.2.204 PG 7 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 198RT UT WOS:000080438400037 ER PT J AU Cutler, DM Sheiner, L AF Cutler, DM Sheiner, L TI The geography of Medicare SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 111th Annual Meeting of the American-Economic-Association CY JAN 03-05, 1999 CL NEW YORK, NEW YORK SP Amer Econ Assoc ID EXPENDITURES; CARE C1 Harvard Univ, Dept Econ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Cutler, DM (reprint author), Harvard Univ, Dept Econ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. NR 10 TC 33 Z9 32 U1 0 U2 5 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1999 VL 89 IS 2 BP 228 EP 233 DI 10.1257/aer.89.2.228 PG 6 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 198RT UT WOS:000080438400041 ER PT J AU Holmes, TJ AF Holmes, TJ TI Scale of local production and city size SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 111th Annual Meeting of the American-Economic-Association CY JAN 03-05, 1999 CL NEW YORK, NEW YORK SP Amer Econ Assoc C1 Univ Minnesota, Dept Econ, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. RP Holmes, TJ (reprint author), Univ Minnesota, Dept Econ, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. NR 5 TC 13 Z9 13 U1 1 U2 6 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1999 VL 89 IS 2 BP 317 EP 320 DI 10.1257/aer.89.2.317 PG 4 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 198RT UT WOS:000080438400058 ER PT J AU Corrado, C Slifman, L AF Corrado, C Slifman, L TI Decomposition of productivity and unit costs SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 111th Annual Meeting of the American-Economic-Association CY JAN 03-05, 1999 CL NEW YORK, NEW YORK SP Amer Econ Assoc C1 Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Corrado, C (reprint author), Fed Reserve Board, 20th & C St NW, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 4 TC 26 Z9 26 U1 0 U2 3 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1999 VL 89 IS 2 BP 328 EP 332 DI 10.1257/aer.89.2.328 PG 5 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 198RT UT WOS:000080438400060 ER PT J AU Couch, KA Daly, MC Wolf, DA AF Couch, KA Daly, MC Wolf, DA TI Time? Money? Both? The allocation of resources to older parents SO DEMOGRAPHY LA English DT Article ID ELDERLY PARENTS; GENDER DIFFERENCES; HOUSEHOLD LABOR; UNITED-STATES; PAID WORK; CARE; HOUSEWORK; EMPLOYMENT; DIVISION; LIFE AB We provide estimates of a reduced-form model of the allocation of household time and money resources. We consider four demands for these resources: time spent working, time spent providing care for noncoresident elderly parents, time spent performing housework, and monetary transfers to noncoresident elderly parents. We focus on the effects of wage rates and parental characteristics on the allocation decisions of adult children and their households concerning these four demands. We find that households with individuals earning high wages rely relatively more on cash transfers and relatively less on lime transfers than do lower-wage households. We also find evidence consistent with an unmeasured tendency of some families to provide multiple sources of support. C1 Syracuse Univ, Ctr Policy Res, Syracuse, NY 13244 USA. Univ Connecticut, Dept Econ, Storrs, CT 06269 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, San Francisco, CA USA. RP Wolf, DA (reprint author), Syracuse Univ, Ctr Policy Res, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244 USA. FU NIA NIH HHS [F32 AG05642, T32 AG00238] NR 65 TC 49 Z9 51 U1 1 U2 8 PU POPULATION ASSN AMER PI WASHINGTON PA 1722 N ST NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20036 USA SN 0070-3370 J9 DEMOGRAPHY JI Demography PD MAY PY 1999 VL 36 IS 2 BP 219 EP 232 DI 10.2307/2648110 PG 14 WC Demography SC Demography GA 193RA UT WOS:000080149200007 PM 10332613 ER PT J AU Faust, J AF Faust, J TI Conventional confidence intervals for points on spectrum have confidence level zero SO ECONOMETRICA LA English DT Article ID UNIT-ROOT TESTS C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Int Finance Div, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Faust, J (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Int Finance Div, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 17 TC 9 Z9 9 U1 0 U2 2 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD OX4 1JF, OXON, ENGLAND SN 0012-9682 J9 ECONOMETRICA JI Econometrica PD MAY PY 1999 VL 67 IS 3 BP 629 EP 637 DI 10.1111/1468-0262.00039 PG 9 WC Economics; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA 189YX UT WOS:000079935200007 ER PT J AU Walsh, CE AF Walsh, CE TI Announcements, inflation targeting and central bank incentives SO ECONOMICA LA English DT Article ID MONETARY-POLICY; INCOMPLETE INFORMATION; PRIVATE INFORMATION; CREDIBILITY; CONTRACTS; PREFERENCES; SECRECY; MAKERS; MODEL AB This paper studies the incentives a central bank faces in announcing inflation targets when the central bank has private information about the economy and the public is uncertain about the central bank's preferences. Targeting rules in the absence of announcements reduce the inflationary bias of discretionary policy, but they distort the central bank's response to private information about the economy. This distortion is eliminated when the central bank is allowed to announce the inflation target. Announcements also affect credibility, although the way they do so depends on the exact definition of credibility that is employed. C1 Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, San Francisco, CA USA. RP Walsh, CE (reprint author), Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA. NR 33 TC 19 Z9 19 U1 2 U2 8 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD OX4 1JF, OXON, ENGLAND SN 0013-0427 J9 ECONOMICA JI Economica PD MAY PY 1999 VL 66 IS 262 BP 255 EP 269 DI 10.1111/1468-0335.00168 PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 202ZR UT WOS:000080682900006 ER PT J AU Campa, JM Goldberg, LS AF Campa, JM Goldberg, LS TI Investment, pass-through, and exchange rates: A cross-country comparison SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID UNITED-STATES INDUSTRY; FOREIGN-EXCHANGE; BUSINESS CYCLES; DOMESTIC PRICES; MARKET; MOVEMENTS; EXPOSURE; BEHAVIOR; POLICY; FIRMS AB Using detailed data from the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Japan, we examine the implications of exchange rates for time series of sectoral investment. Both theoretically and empirically, we show that investment responsiveness to exchange rates varies over time, positively in relation to sectoral reliance on export share and negatively with respect to the share of imported inputs in production. Important differences exist in investment endogeneity across high- and low-price-over-cost markup sectors, with investment in low-markup sectors often significantly more responsive to exchange rates. Cross-country differences in investment response are only partially explained by industrial organization arguments. C1 NYU, Stern Sch Business, New York, NY 10003 USA. Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Goldberg, LS (reprint author), NYU, Stern Sch Business, New York, NY 10003 USA. NR 36 TC 53 Z9 54 U1 2 U2 4 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 USA SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1999 VL 40 IS 2 BP 287 EP 314 DI 10.1111/1468-2354.00016 PG 28 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 195VY UT WOS:000080273900003 ER PT J AU Burkhauser, RV Cutts, AC Daly, MC Jenkins, SP AF Burkhauser, RV Cutts, AC Daly, MC Jenkins, SP TI Testing the significance of income distribution changes over the 1980s business cycle: A cross-national comparison SO JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS LA English DT Article ID EARNINGS INEQUALITY; UNITED-STATES AB Using kernel density estimation we describe the distribution of household size-adjusted real income and how it changed over the business cycle of the 1980s in the United States and the United Kingdom. We confirm previous studies that show income inequality increased in the two countries and the middle of the distribution was squashed down. Using a series of statistical tests, however, we find that while the mass in both tails of the distribution increased significantly in both countries over the period, by far the greatest gains were in the upper tail. Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. C1 Syracuse Univ, Ctr Policy Res, Syracuse, NY 13244 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, San Francisco, CA USA. Univ Essex, ESRC Res Ctr & Micro Social Change, Colchester CO4 3SQ, Essex, England. RP Burkhauser, RV (reprint author), Cornell Univ, N135 MVR Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. RI Burkhauser, Richard/G-5403-2015 OI Burkhauser, Richard/0000-0003-4629-0253 NR 41 TC 14 Z9 15 U1 0 U2 8 PU JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD PI W SUSSEX PA BAFFINS LANE CHICHESTER, W SUSSEX PO19 1UD, ENGLAND SN 0883-7252 J9 J APPL ECONOM JI J. Appl. Econom. PD MAY-JUN PY 1999 VL 14 IS 3 BP 253 EP 272 DI 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1255(199905/06)14:3<253::AID-JAE519>3.0.CO;2-R PG 20 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA 213EL UT WOS:000081259500003 ER PT J AU Pilloff, SJ AF Pilloff, SJ TI Does the presence of big banks influence competition in local markets? SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Article DE banking; competition; antitrust ID CONTACT AB This paper examines whether the biggest organizations in the banking industry influence competition differently than their smaller rivals. Big bank financial strength, multimarket links, diversified operations, status as "too big to fail," economies of scale and scope, and in some cases, weak incentives to be aggressive may result in big banks affecting competition in a given local market differently than would be suggested by market shares and other structural measures. Understanding the influence of big banks on competition has important implications for antitrust policy toward bank mergers. Empirical results reveal that, in rural markets where big banks operate, competition may be reduced, thereby enabling all banks in those markets to earn greater returns. The presence of a big bank is associated with an approximately 0.09 percentage point effect on a bank's return on assets, which represents about a 7.7% performance advantage for firms that face big banks over firms that do not. The relationship between big banks and profitability holds only when banks are classified as big if they are both very large and regionally prominent. The presence of banks that possess only one of these characteristics does not appear to substantially influence competition. Finally, no clear and consistent patterns of variation are found in the relationship between the profitability of small banks and the presence of big banks. The number of big banks, the market shares of big banks, and the level of concentration in markets with big banks do not strongly influence the relationship. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Pilloff, SJ (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 24 TC 14 Z9 14 U1 0 U2 2 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD MAY PY 1999 VL 15 IS 3 BP 159 EP 177 DI 10.1023/A:1008165132438 PG 19 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 236HH UT WOS:000082593800001 ER PT J AU Sargent, TJ Velde, FR AF Sargent, TJ Velde, FR TI The big problem of small change SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID RATES AB The medieval money supply mechanism implemented a commodity standard throughout the denomination structure by imposing mint and melt points for each coin. Mints stood ready to sell (but not to buy) coins for metal. Seigniorage and brassage fees determined the spreads between mint points and melt points for each coin. Because it was cheaper to make a large coin than a smaller one, there were difficulties in aligning the mint-melt points for various coins, and these exposed the system to recurrent shortages, especially of small coins. We build a model of the medieval money supply system and modify a cash-in-advance model of demand to capture a preference for small change. We use the model to study the behavior of exchange rates between large and small denomination coins across periods of shortages. We also use the model to study how a standard formula of the nineteenth century could be used to supply small change without shortages. The standard formula displaced the medieval supply mechanism with a token currency for all coins but one. C1 Stanford Univ, Hoover Inst, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, Chicago, IL USA. RP Sargent, TJ (reprint author), Stanford Univ, Hoover Inst, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. NR 15 TC 8 Z9 8 U1 1 U2 4 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD MAY PY 1999 VL 31 IS 2 BP 137 EP 161 DI 10.2307/2601227 PG 25 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 189YA UT WOS:000079932700001 ER PT J AU Fisher, JDM AF Fisher, JDM TI Credit market imperfections and the heterogeneous response of firms to monetary shocks SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID BUSINESS FLUCTUATIONS; AGENCY COSTS; NET WORTH; POLICY; LIQUIDITY; TRANSMISSION; CONTRACTS; FUNDS AB This paper assesses the bank-lending channel interpretation of evidence on the heterogeneous response of firms to monetary shocks. To do so I develop a quantitative general equilibrium model of the bank-lending channel with imperfect credit markets. The calibrated model's steady state supports a common identification strategy adopted in the literature: small firms are credit constrained and large firms are not. For some parameter values the model reproduces the cyclical observations viewed as supporting the lending view of the monetary transmission mechanism and for others it does not. The parameter values consistent with the lending view appear to be implausible. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Dept Res, Chicago, IL 60604 USA. RP Fisher, JDM (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Dept Res, Chicago, IL 60604 USA. NR 38 TC 26 Z9 26 U1 0 U2 2 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD MAY PY 1999 VL 31 IS 2 BP 187 EP 211 DI 10.2307/2601229 PG 25 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 189YA UT WOS:000079932700003 ER PT J AU Wheelock, DC Wilson, PW AF Wheelock, DC Wilson, PW TI Technical progress, inefficiency, and productivity change in US banking, 1984-1993 SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID STATES COMMERCIAL-BANKS; INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES; TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE; EFFICIENCY CHANGE; SCALE EFFICIENCY; GROWTH AB Studies often find that, on average, U.S. commercial banks are quite inefficient, and we find that banks became more technically inefficient between 1984 and 1993. From a new decomposition of the Malmquist productivity index into changes in pure technical and scale efficiency, as well as both pure technical changes and changes in scale of technology, we find that much of the inefficiency increase can be attributed to the general failure of banks to adopt technological improvements made by a few banks that advanced the efficient frontier. Small banks experienced especially large decreases in both efficiency and productivity. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, St Louis, MO 63102 USA. Univ Texas, Austin, TX 78712 USA. RP Wheelock, DC (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, St Louis, MO 63102 USA. RI Wheelock, David/I-5757-2016 OI Wheelock, David/0000-0002-2702-8164 NR 32 TC 85 Z9 87 U1 2 U2 7 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI MALDEN PA COMMERCE PLACE, 350 MAIN ST, MALDEN 02148, MA USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD MAY PY 1999 VL 31 IS 2 BP 212 EP 234 DI 10.2307/2601230 PG 23 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 189YA UT WOS:000079932700004 ER PT J AU Carlino, G DeFina, R AF Carlino, G DeFina, R TI The differential regional effects of monetary policy: Evidence from the US states SO JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE LA English DT Article ID FUNDS; TRANSMISSION AB In this paper we use time-series techniques to examine whether monetary policy had symmetric effects across U.S. states during the 1958:1-1992:4 period. Impulse response functions from estimated structural vector autoregression models reveal differences in policy responses, which in some cases are substantial. We provide evidence on the reasons for the measured cross-state differential policy responses. The size of a state's response is significantly related to industry-mix variables, providing evidence of an interest rate channel for monetary policy, although the state-level data offer no support for recently advanced credit-channel theories. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Dept Res, Philadelphia, PA 19106 USA. Villanova Univ, Dept Econ, Villanova, PA 19085 USA. RP Carlino, G (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Dept Res, Philadelphia, PA 19106 USA. NR 29 TC 46 Z9 52 U1 1 U2 13 PU BLACKWELL PUBLISHERS PI MALDEN PA 350 MAIN STREET, STE 6, MALDEN, MA 02148 USA SN 0022-4146 J9 J REGIONAL SCI JI J. Reg. Sci. PD MAY PY 1999 VL 39 IS 2 BP 339 EP 358 DI 10.1111/1467-9787.00137 PG 20 WC Economics; Environmental Studies; Planning & Development SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Public Administration GA 187DA UT WOS:000079769900006 ER PT J AU Browne, LE AF Browne, LE TI US economic performance: Good fortune, bubble, or new era? SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID PHILLIPS-CURVE; INFLATION AB What accounts for the extraordinary performance of the U.S. economy in recent years? How is it that we have been able to enjoy such strong economic growth and resulting low unemployment rates without an upturn in inflation? The author reviews the primary explanations offered for these unusually favorable circumstances-that the U.S, economy has been the beneficiary of temporary factors that have held down the inflation rate or that the U.S, economy has entered a new era of intensified competition and rising productivity growth in which inflation is less of a threat. She also discusses arguments that the U.S. economy may be experiencing an asset price bubble, noting that while rising stock prices cannot explain low inflation, decreases in inflation may have contributed to rising stock prices. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Browne, LE (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 26 TC 2 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAY-JUN PY 1999 BP 3 EP + PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 226AH UT WOS:000081997800001 ER PT J AU Kopcke, RW AF Kopcke, RW TI Currency boards: Once and future monetary regimes? SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB A currency board can allow a developing economy to establish its domestic currency relatively promptly and efficiently by fixing the value of its currency to that of another country and guaranteeing that its currency is backed by sufficient foreign exchange reserves. Currency boards not only provide a foundation that encourages traders and investors to accept new currencies, they also do not require sophisticated money markets and central banking operations in order to be effective. Because of these attributes, currency boards have attracted more attention, particularly in the wake of recent global financial crises, from developing countries in Asia, Latin America, and Europe that have either introduced new currencies or want to restore confidence in their currencies. The author reviews the design of currency boards, the choice of reserve currency and exchange rate, and the role of a currency board in fiscal and monetary policy. He concludes that while currency boards can provide a foundation for new currencies, these boards alone cannot ensure success. Although a board guarantees the backing of its base money, faith in its currency rests on traders' and investors' confidence in the economy's financial institutions, capital markets, and fiscal management. Although a board might cause its economy to import a reputable monetary policy, it cannot ensure that this policy suits its economy's needs. Currency boards represent a start, more than a destination, for the design of monetary authorities, the author concludes. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Kopcke, RW (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 23 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAY-JUN PY 1999 BP 21 EP + PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 226AH UT WOS:000081997800002 ER PT J AU Jordan, JS AF Jordan, JS TI Pricing bank stocks: The contribution of bank examinations SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID ENGLAND AB In the wake of recent studies concluding that financial markets effectively demand risk premia on noninsured bank securities, the debate has intensified over whether we should place greater reliance on markets and less reliance on direct regulatory oversight. This study contributes to the debate by investigating the interaction between the market's pricing of bank equity securities and the regulatory examination process during the early stages of New England's banking crisis in the late 1980s and early 1990s. It addresses the concern that reducing regulatory oversight may adversely affect the market's ability to price bank securities effectively. The author finds that the bank examination process contributed si,significantly to the market's understanding of financial problems at New England banks. Bank examiners appear to have uncovered problems that bank management was unwilling to disclose publicly, since accounting performance measures were significantly different in exam quarters that resulted in supervisory downgrades than they were in all other quarters. In addition, market participants appeared to find this information useful, driving down stock prices in the quarter after the exam, the period when the poor performance measures associated with the exam are generally disclosed. The author suggests caution in considering market discipline as a substitute for regulatory oversight; the results of his study suggest it should more appropriately be considered as a complement. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Jordan, JS (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 13 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAY-JUN PY 1999 BP 39 EP + PG 16 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 226AH UT WOS:000081997800003 ER PT J AU Peek, J Rosengren, ES Tootell, GMB AF Peek, J Rosengren, ES Tootell, GMB TI Is bank supervision central to central banking? SO QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID MONETARY-POLICY; INDEPENDENCE AB Recently, several central banks have lost their bank supervisory responsibilities, in part because it has not been shown that supervisory authority improves the conduct of monetary policy. This paper finds that confidential bank supervisory information could help the Board staff more accurately forecast important macroeconomic variables and is used by FOMC members to guide monetary policy. These findings suggest that the complementarity between supervisory responsibilities and monetary policy should be an important consideration when evaluating the structure of the central bank. C1 Boston Coll, Chestnut Hill, MA 02167 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Peek, J (reprint author), Boston Coll, Chestnut Hill, MA 02167 USA. NR 23 TC 51 Z9 52 U1 2 U2 11 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD STREET, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0033-5533 J9 Q J ECON JI Q. J. Econ. PD MAY PY 1999 VL 114 IS 2 BP 629 EP 653 DI 10.1162/003355399556098 PG 25 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 197JP UT WOS:000080361900008 ER PT J AU Dotsey, M King, RG Wolman, AL AF Dotsey, M King, RG Wolman, AL TI State-dependent pricing and the general equilibrium dynamics of money and output SO QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID INFLATION AB Economists have long suggested that nominal product prices are changed infrequently because of fixed costs. In such a setting, optimal price adjustment should depend on the state of the economy. Yet, while widely discussed, state-dependent pricing has proved difficult to incorporate into macroeconomic models. This paper develops a new, tractable theoretical state-dependent pricing framework. We use it to study how optimal pricing depends on the persistence of monetary shocks, the elasticities of labor supply and goods demand, and the interest sensitivity of money demand. C1 Univ Virginia, Fed Reserve Bank Richmond, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA. Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. RP Dotsey, M (reprint author), Univ Virginia, Fed Reserve Bank Richmond, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA. NR 26 TC 187 Z9 188 U1 3 U2 12 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD STREET, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0033-5533 J9 Q J ECON JI Q. J. Econ. PD MAY PY 1999 VL 114 IS 2 BP 655 EP 690 DI 10.1162/003355399556106 PG 36 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 197JP UT WOS:000080361900009 ER PT J AU Bryan, MF Cecchetti, SG AF Bryan, MF Cecchetti, SG TI Inflation and the distribution of price changes SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID CONSISTENT COVARIANCE-MATRIX; HETEROSKEDASTICITY AB This paper reconsiders the empirical evidence connecting inflation to its higher-order moments. In particular, we examine the statistical properties of the observed positive correlation between the sample mean and the sample cross-sectional skewness of price changes. This correlation has attracted substantial attention over the years and has recently been the focal point of a debate among macroeconomists. We show that the sample mean-skewness correlation suffers from a small-sample bias that accounts for the entirety of the observed correlation. In other words, we establish that one of the stylized facts in the literature on aggregate price behavior need not be a fact at all. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. Ohio State Univ, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. RP Bryan, MF (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. NR 15 TC 14 Z9 15 U1 1 U2 2 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD STREET, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD MAY PY 1999 VL 81 IS 2 BP 188 EP 196 DI 10.1162/003465399558148 PG 9 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA 204QP UT WOS:000080775900003 ER PT J AU Beaulieu, J Mattey, J AF Beaulieu, J Mattey, J TI The effects of general inflation and idiosyncratic cost shocks on within-commodity price dispersion: Evidence from microdata SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID OUTPUT DEFLATORS; BEHAVIOR; ERRORS AB This study investigates the dispersion of price levels within highly disaggregated markets by examining plant-level product records from the U. S. Census of Manufactures. The paper estimates the effects of inflation on price dispersion through cross-sectional variation in the drift rate of average input costs within a market, arguing that, in several models that relate inflation to price dispersion, the effects of cost increases on dispersion is similar to the effects of general inflation. We also disentangle the effects of aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks on price dispersion. In general, we find that the higher the drift rate of input costs of a given commodity, the larger the amount of price dispersion. The standard deviation of idiosyncratic shocks also is positively correlated with the degree of price dispersion. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. US Bur Census, Ctr Econ Studies, Washington, DC USA. Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, San Francisco, CA USA. RP Beaulieu, J (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 31 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 1 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD MAY PY 1999 VL 81 IS 2 BP 205 EP 216 DI 10.1162/003465399558184 PG 12 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA 204QP UT WOS:000080775900007 ER PT J AU Holmes, TJ AF Holmes, TJ TI Localization of industry and vertical disintegration SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article AB Theory suggests that vertical disintegration should be greater in areas where industries localize. This paper provides some evidence that this implication is true for the U. S. manufacturing sector. Purchased inputs as a percent of the value of output is used as a measure of vertical disintegration. To measure the localization of industry, for each manufacturing plant the amount of employment in neighboring plants in the same industry is determined. C1 Univ Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. RP Holmes, TJ (reprint author), Univ Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. NR 22 TC 97 Z9 102 U1 0 U2 4 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD MAY PY 1999 VL 81 IS 2 BP 314 EP 325 DI 10.1162/003465399558102 PG 12 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA 204QP UT WOS:000080775900016 ER PT J AU Nakamura, LI AF Nakamura, LI TI The measurement of retail output and the retail revolution SO CANADIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS-REVUE CANADIENNE D ECONOMIQUE LA English DT Article C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Philadelphia, PA 19106 USA. RP Nakamura, LI (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Philadelphia, PA 19106 USA. NR 17 TC 9 Z9 9 U1 0 U2 3 PU UNIV TORONTO PRESS INC PI TORONTO PA JOURNALS DIVISION, 5201 DUFFERIN ST, DOWNSVIEW, TORONTO, ON M3H 5T8, CANADA SN 0008-4085 J9 CAN J ECON JI Can. J. Econ.-Rev. Can. Econ. PD APR PY 1999 VL 32 IS 2 BP 408 EP 425 DI 10.2307/136429 PG 18 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 206AR UT WOS:000080854300008 ER PT J AU Burkett, JP Humblet, C Putterman, L AF Burkett, JP Humblet, C Putterman, L TI Preindustrial and postwar economic development: Is there a link? SO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND CULTURAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID GROWTH C1 Brown Univ, Providence, RI 02912 USA. Univ Rhode Isl, Kingston, RI 02881 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Putterman, L (reprint author), Brown Univ, Providence, RI 02912 USA. NR 29 TC 16 Z9 16 U1 0 U2 1 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 SOUTH WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637-1603 USA SN 0013-0079 J9 ECON DEV CULT CHANGE JI Econ. Dev. Cult. Change PD APR PY 1999 VL 47 IS 3 BP 471 EP 495 DI 10.1086/452416 PG 25 WC Area Studies; Economics; Planning & Development SC Area Studies; Business & Economics; Public Administration GA 186CW UT WOS:000079710200001 ER PT J AU Barnes, M Boyd, JH Smith, BD AF Barnes, M Boyd, JH Smith, BD TI Inflation and asset returns SO EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 13th Annual Congress of the European-Economic-Association CY SEP 02-05, 1998 CL BERLIN, GERMANY SP European Econ Assoc DE inflation; asset returns ID GROWTH; FINANCE; MODEL; RATES; MONEY AB Sustained inflation is detrimental to long-run growth and the financial system. A recent theoretical literature suggests that high inflation implies low real returns on assets. These low returns exacerbate informational frictions, interfering with the functioning of financial markets and the allocation of investment. We investigate the plausibility of an inverse relationship between inflation and real returns. Inflation and nominal equity returns are negatively correlated or uncorrelated for all low-to-moderate inflation economies examined. Safe nominal rates of return and inflation are only weakly positively correlated. However, for high inflation economies inflation and nominal returns are strongly positively correlated. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification: E5; E6; G2. C1 Univ Adelaide, Dept Econ, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia. Univ Minnesota, Carlson Sch Management, Dept Finance, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. Univ Texas, Dept Econ, Austin, TX 78712 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Cleveland, OH 44101 USA. RP Smith, BD (reprint author), Univ Adelaide, Dept Econ, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia. NR 26 TC 29 Z9 30 U1 2 U2 9 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0014-2921 J9 EUR ECON REV JI Eur. Econ. Rev. PD APR PY 1999 VL 43 IS 4-6 BP 737 EP 754 DI 10.1016/S0014-2921(98)00090-7 PG 18 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 196MG UT WOS:000080311700004 ER PT J AU Juhn, C AF Juhn, C TI Wage inequality and demand for skill: Evidence from five decades SO INDUSTRIAL & LABOR RELATIONS REVIEW LA English DT Article ID EARNINGS INEQUALITY; UNITED-STATES; LABOR AB Using the 1940-90 Censuses, the author examines long-run changes in male wage inequality and skill premiums and investigates the extent to which shifts in observable measures of skill supply and demand can account for relative wage fluctuations across decades. A simple supply and demand framework is reasonably successful in accounting for movements in the education premium but is less successful in explaining changes in overall wage inequality. While the difference between the 90th and 10th percentiles of the log wage distribution fell sharply in the 1940s and grew at an accelerating rate in the 1980s, relative demand for the most versus the least skilled workers rose steadily throughout the period. The pace of industrial change and, in particular, the expansion of medium-skilled sectors such as blue-collar manufacturing appear to have been inversely related to overall wage inequality growth. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, Domest Res Dept, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Juhn, C (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, Domest Res Dept, 33 Liberty St, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 27 TC 23 Z9 23 U1 0 U2 3 PU INDUSTRIAL LABOR RELAT REV PI ITHACA PA CORNELL UNIV, ITHACA, NY 14851-0952 USA SN 0019-7939 J9 IND LABOR RELAT REV JI Ind. Labor Relat. Rev. PD APR PY 1999 VL 52 IS 3 BP 424 EP 443 DI 10.2307/2525143 PG 20 WC Industrial Relations & Labor SC Business & Economics GA 185NT UT WOS:000079676300005 ER PT J AU Edison, HJ Melick, WR AF Edison, HJ Melick, WR TI Alternative approaches to real exchange rates and real interest rates: Three up and three down SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE uncovered interest parity; purchasing power parity; Johansen procedure; exchange rates ID PURCHASING POWER PARITY; INTEREST DIFFERENTIALS; TIME-SERIES; UNIT-ROOT; COINTEGRATION; MODELS; ESTIMATORS; HYPOTHESIS; SAMPLE; MONEY AB This paper examines the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rates using three different approaches across four currencies and two horizons with 20 years of data. Each approach gives some encouragement that this relationship might hold, but each approach also encounters problems establishing the form or usefulness of the relationship. On balance, this paper contributes to the literature by finding more encouraging results than in earlier studies, but it still remains to be demonstrated that the real exchange rate-real interest rate relationship is the linchpin to explaining exchange rate movements. Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. C1 Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Kenyon Coll, Dept Econ, Gambier, OH 43022 USA. RP Edison, HJ (reprint author), Fed Reserve Board, Stop 24, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RI Edison, Hali/A-7550-2009 NR 32 TC 13 Z9 13 U1 0 U2 1 PU JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD PI W SUSSEX PA BAFFINS LANE CHICHESTER, W SUSSEX PO19 1UD, ENGLAND SN 1076-9307 J9 INT J FINANC ECON JI Int. J. Financ. Econ. PD APR PY 1999 VL 4 IS 2 BP 93 EP 111 DI 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1158(199904)4:2<93::AID-IJFE93>3.3.CO;2-I PG 19 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 201TG UT WOS:000080611200001 ER PT J AU Marshall, DA Parekh, NG AF Marshall, DA Parekh, NG TI Can costs of consumption adjustment explain asset pricing puzzles? SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Article ID INCOMPLETE MARKETS; EQUITY PREMIUM; ECONOMIES; MODEL; FRICTIONS; GOODS AB We investigate Grossman and Laroque's (1990) conjecture that costs of adjusting consumption can account, in part, for the empirical failure of the consumption-based capital asset pricing model (CCAPM). We incorporate small fixed costs of consumption adjustment into a CCAPM with heterogeneous agents. We find that undetectably small consumption adjustment costs can account for much of the discrepancy between the observed variance of nondurable aggregate consumption growth and the predictions of the CCAPM, and can partially reconcile nondurable consumption data with the observed equity premium. We conclude that the CCAPM's implications are nonrobust to extremely small adjustment costs. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Chicago, IL 60604 USA. RP Marshall, DA (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Chicago, IL 60604 USA. NR 30 TC 16 Z9 16 U1 0 U2 5 PU BLACKWELL PUBLISHERS PI MALDEN PA 350 MAIN STREET, STE 6, MALDEN, MA 02148 USA SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD APR PY 1999 VL 54 IS 2 BP 623 EP 654 DI 10.1111/0022-1082.00119 PG 32 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 176ZB UT WOS:000079181400006 ER PT J AU Packer, F AF Packer, F TI Japanese corporate finance and international competition. SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Book Review C1 Fed Reserve Bank, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Packer, F (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 4 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 1 U2 5 PU BLACKWELL PUBLISHERS PI MALDEN PA 350 MAIN STREET, STE 6, MALDEN, MA 02148 USA SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD APR PY 1999 VL 54 IS 2 BP 821 EP 823 PG 3 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 176ZB UT WOS:000079181400015 ER PT J AU Harrigan, J AF Harrigan, J TI Estimation of cross-country differences in industry production functions SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE total factor productivity; scale economies AB International trade economists typically assume that there are no cross-country differences in industry total factor productivity (TFP). In contrast, this paper finds large and persistent TFP differences across a group of industrialized countries in the 1980s. The paper calculates TFP indices, and statistically examines the sources of the observed large TFP differences across countries. Two hypotheses are examined to account for TFP differences: constant returns to scale production with country-specific technological differences, and industry-level scale economies with identical technology in each country. The data support the constant returns/different technology hypothesis over the increasing returns/same technology hypothesis. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, Int Res Dept, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Harrigan, J (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, Int Res Dept, 33 Liberty St, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 35 TC 57 Z9 57 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD APR PY 1999 VL 47 IS 2 BP 267 EP 293 DI 10.1016/S0022-1996(98)00011-7 PG 27 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 181RU UT WOS:000079456700002 ER PT J AU Huffman, GW Wynne, MA AF Huffman, GW Wynne, MA TI The role of intratemporal adjustment costs in a multisector economy SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE business cycle; multisector economy; adjustment costs ID BUSINESS-CYCLE; AGGREGATE FLUCTUATIONS; CYCLICAL UNEMPLOYMENT; SECTORAL SHIFTS; EQUILIBRIUM; INVESTMENT; MODEL; TIME AB In this paper we construct a multisector business cycle model which is capable of reproducing the procyclical behavior of cross-sector measures of capital, employment and output. We start by documenting the difficulty that a standard variant of a conventional real business cycle model has in accounting for these facts. We then show how the introduction of intratemporal adjustment costs for investment can significantly enhance the performance of such a model. These costs make it difficult to alter the composition of production of new capital goods. The presence of these costs eliminates many counterfactual observations of the model that would otherwise be present. The dynamic response of variables in the model is different from what one would observe in the standard one-sector model. We also examine the implications of imposing intratemporal adjustment costs for labor. The model can also account for the cross-sector behavior of employment observed in the data. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification: E22; E24; E32. C1 So Methodist Univ, Dept Econ, Dallas, TX 75275 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Dallas, Dallas, TX 75201 USA. RP Huffman, GW (reprint author), So Methodist Univ, Dept Econ, Dallas, TX 75275 USA. NR 36 TC 34 Z9 34 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD APR PY 1999 VL 43 IS 2 BP 317 EP 350 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(98)00059-2 PG 34 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 186ZR UT WOS:000079761900003 ER PT J AU Campbell, JY Cochrane, JH AF Campbell, JY Cochrane, JH TI By force of habit: A consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior SO JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Article ID EQUITY PREMIUM PUZZLE; ASSET RETURNS; EXPECTED RETURNS; RISK-AVERSION; PRICES; PREFERENCES; VOLATILITY; MODELS; TESTS; TIME AB We present a consumption-based model that explains a wide variety of dynamic asset pricing phenomena, including the procyclical variation of stock prices, the long-horizon predictability of excess stock returns, and the countercyclical variation of stock market volatility. The model captures much of the history of stock prices from consumption data. It explains the short- and long-run equity premium puzzles despite a low and constant risk-free rate. The results are essentially the same whether we model stocks as a claim to the consumption stream or as a claim to volatile dividends poorly correlated with consumption. The model is driven by an independently and identically distributed consumption growth process and adds a slow-moving external habit to the standard power utility function. These features generate slow countercyclical variation in risk premia. The model posits a fundamentally novel description of risk premia: Investors fear stocks primarily because they do poorly in recessions unrelated to the risks of long-run average consumption growth. C1 Harvard Univ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Univ Chicago, Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. RP Campbell, JY (reprint author), Harvard Univ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. NR 51 TC 981 Z9 996 U1 15 U2 82 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 SOUTH WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637-1603 USA SN 0022-3808 J9 J POLIT ECON JI J. Polit. Econ. PD APR PY 1999 VL 107 IS 2 BP 205 EP 251 DI 10.1086/250059 PG 47 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 180AP UT WOS:000079362800001 ER PT J AU Grosskopf, S Hayes, KJ Taylor, LL Weber, WL AF Grosskopf, S Hayes, KJ Taylor, LL Weber, WL TI Anticipating the consequences of school reform: A new use of DEA SO MANAGEMENT SCIENCE LA English DT Article DE data envelopment analysis; school reform; distance functions; school efficiency; measuring potential gains from reform; measuring economic rents; input deregulation ID PUBLIC-SCHOOLS; EFFICIENCY; PERFORMANCE; PRODUCTIVITY; EDUCATION; DISTRICT AB We use DEA-type Linear programming techniques to simulate a basic component of educational reform-eliminating restrictions on the allocation of school personnel. Our technique allows us to identify potential output gains (or equivalently potential cost savings) from reform. We can also identify which personnel groups are likely to gain and lose under this reform. When we apply our model to a sample of Texas school districts, we find evidence that the educational establishment has substantial economic rents to protect from school reform, and that the primary beneficiaries of reform are likely to be affluent school districts with few minority students. The technique, which relies on the relationship between the direct and indirect distance functions, can be easily generalized to measure the potential gains from removing other input restrictions such as union work rules, environmental regulations, or deed restrictions. C1 Oregon State Univ, Dept Econ, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. So Methodist Univ, Dedman Coll, Dallas, TX 75275 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Dallas, Dept Res, Dallas, TX 75201 USA. SE Missouri State Univ, Dept Econ, Cape Girardeau, MO 63701 USA. RP Grosskopf, S (reprint author), Oregon State Univ, Dept Econ, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. RI GROSSKOPF , Shawnax/H-4031-2013 NR 31 TC 45 Z9 45 U1 2 U2 12 PU INST OPERATIONS RESEARCH MANAGEMENT SCIENCES PI LINTHICUM HTS PA 901 ELKRIDGE LANDING RD, STE 400, LINTHICUM HTS, MD 21090-2909 USA SN 0025-1909 J9 MANAGE SCI JI Manage. Sci. PD APR PY 1999 VL 45 IS 4 BP 608 EP 620 DI 10.1287/mnsc.45.4.608 PG 13 WC Management; Operations Research & Management Science SC Business & Economics; Operations Research & Management Science GA 229VH UT WOS:000082216100011 ER PT J AU Allen, DS AF Allen, DS TI Aggregate dynamics of (S,s) inventory management SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE inventory; (S, s); aggregation; dynamics AB This paper identifies the criteria for dynamic synchronization of the movement of agents who make intermittent adjustment to inventory stocks, leading to "harmonic resonance" rather than cancellation. I use a discrete Markov process model of (S, s) inventory adjustment to establish a theoretical framework for the aggregate dynamics and use simulations to demonstrate the distribution effects of a discrete model of lumpy behavior. The paper identifies circumstances that lead to increased skewness of the distribution of agents over the inventory interval. This has application in financial, labor, and commodity markets. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, St Louis, MO 63102 USA. RP Allen, DS (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, 411 Locust St, St Louis, MO 63102 USA. EM donald.s.allen@stls.frb.org NR 5 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 1 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0925-5273 J9 INT J PROD ECON JI Int. J. Prod. Econ. PD MAR 20 PY 1999 VL 59 IS 1-3 BP 231 EP 242 DI 10.1016/S0925-5273(98)00019-X PG 12 WC Engineering, Industrial; Engineering, Manufacturing; Operations Research & Management Science SC Engineering; Operations Research & Management Science GA 184JV UT WOS:000079609400026 ER PT J AU Lettau, M Uhlig, H AF Lettau, M Uhlig, H TI Rules of thumb versus dynamic programming SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID PERMANENT INCOME; PANEL-DATA; CONSUMPTION; GAMES; RATIONALITY; EQUILIBRIUM; EXCHANGE; MODELS; MONEY AB This paper studies decision-making with rules of thumb in the context of dynamic decision problems and compares it to dynamic programming. A rule is a fixed mapping from a subset of states into actions. Rules are compared by averaging over past experiences. This can lead to favoring rules which are only applicable in good states. Correcting this good state bias requires solving the dynamic program. We provide a general framework and characterize the asymptotic properties, We apply it to provide a candidate explanation for the sensitivity of consumption to transitory income. (JEL E00, C63, C61, E21). C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, Res Dept Capital Markets Funct, New York, NY 10045 USA. Tilburg Univ, CentER, NL-5000 LE Tilburg, Netherlands. Princeton Univ, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. RP Lettau, M (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, Res Dept Capital Markets Funct, 33 Liberty St, New York, NY 10045 USA. OI Uhlig, Harald/0000-0003-0918-032X NR 57 TC 38 Z9 38 U1 1 U2 15 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAR PY 1999 VL 89 IS 1 BP 148 EP 174 DI 10.1257/aer.89.1.148 PG 27 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 180XV UT WOS:000079411900007 ER PT J AU Geweke, J AF Geweke, J TI Power of tests in binary response models: Comment SO ECONOMETRICA LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Minnesota, Dept Econ, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. RP Geweke, J (reprint author), Univ Minnesota, Dept Econ, 1035 Management & Econ,271 19th Ave S, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 2 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD OX4 1JF, OXON, ENGLAND SN 0012-9682 J9 ECONOMETRICA JI Econometrica PD MAR PY 1999 VL 67 IS 2 BP 423 EP 425 DI 10.1111/1468-0262.00026 PG 3 WC Economics; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA 171HF UT WOS:000078856800007 ER PT J AU Reinhart, VR AF Reinhart, VR TI Death and taxes: their implications for endogenous growth SO ECONOMICS LETTERS LA English DT Article DE endogenous growth; debt AB Blanchard's explanation of consumption dynamics, when combined with a technology that does not exhibit diminishing returns, delivers a model consistent with many of the regularities in cross-country growth regressions. Longer life expectancies generate faster economic growth by affecting households' willingness to smooth intertemporally. Greater government expenditure or taxation lowers growth, but the effect of higher government debt is ambiguous. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Monetary Affairs, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Reinhart, VR (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Monetary Affairs, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 3 TC 10 Z9 10 U1 1 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA PI LAUSANNE PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND SN 0165-1765 J9 ECON LETT JI Econ. Lett. PD MAR PY 1999 VL 62 IS 3 BP 339 EP 345 DI 10.1016/S0165-1765(98)00250-X PG 7 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 189ZW UT WOS:000079937900013 ER PT J AU Rogers, RM AF Rogers, RM TI Wisconsin-Style and income shares child support guidelines: Excessive burdens and flawed economic foundation SO FAMILY LAW QUARTERLY LA English DT Article C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Atlanta, GA USA. RP Rogers, RM (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Atlanta, GA USA. NR 14 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER BAR ASSOC PI CHICAGO PA 750 N LAKE SHORE DR, ATTN:ORDER FULFILLMENT, CHICAGO, IL 60611 USA SN 0014-729X J9 FAM LAW QUART JI Fam. Law Q. PD SPR PY 1999 VL 33 IS 1 BP 135 EP 156 PG 22 WC Family Studies; Law SC Family Studies; Government & Law GA 222PB UT WOS:000081793000005 ER PT J AU Ackert, LF Church, BK AF Ackert, LF Church, BK TI Bid-ask spreads in multiple dealer settings: Some experimental evidence SO FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB We report the results of an experiment designed to investigate the behavior of quoted spreads in multiple dealer markets. We manipulate verbal communication (not allowed and allowed) and order preferencing (not allowed, allowed, and allowed with order flow payment) across 18 sessions. Without preferencing, spreads are wider when communication is allowed. With preferencing (and no order-flow payments), individuals do not have incentives to narrow the spread and a wide spread may be maintained without a collusive agreement. However, spreads narrow somewhat when individuals are given the opportunity to compete using alternatives to price (i.e., payment for order flow). C1 Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Atlanta, GA USA. Georgia Inst Technol, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA. RP Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Atlanta, GA USA. NR 16 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 2 U2 2 PU WILEY PI HOBOKEN PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA SN 0046-3892 EI 1755-053X J9 FINANC MANAGE JI Financ. Manage. PD SPR PY 1999 VL 28 IS 1 BP 75 EP + DI 10.2307/3666118 PG 15 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 196WV UT WOS:000080331600006 ER PT J AU Rossell, M Walker, C AF Rossell, M Walker, C TI Entry solicitation and deterrence in R&D competition with spillovers SO JAPANESE ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB The purpose of this note is to examine incumbent behaviour and patterns of entry under R&D competition with spillovers. We find that, in addition to blockading, deterring and accommodating entry, the incumbent may also solicit entry, Entry solicitation occurs when the incumbent strategically alters its R&D commitment in order to take advantage of the spillover generated by the entrant's subsequent R&D investment. Although our results are placed in the context of R&D with spillovers, they are applicable to a wider class of models involving positive externalities, particularly network externalities. JEL Classification Numbers: L12, O31. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Dallas, TX 75201 USA. Delta State Univ, Cleveland, MS 38733 USA. RP Rossell, M (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Dallas, TX 75201 USA. NR 7 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD OX4 1JF, OXON, ENGLAND SN 1352-4739 J9 JPN ECON REV JI Jpn. Econ. Rev. PD MAR PY 1999 VL 50 IS 1 BP 96 EP 103 DI 10.1111/1468-5876.00105 PG 8 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 229CZ UT WOS:000082177100007 ER PT J AU Harrigan, J AF Harrigan, J TI Trade and income distribution. SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE LA English DT Book Review C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Harrigan, J (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0022-0515 J9 J ECON LIT JI J. Econ. Lit. PD MAR PY 1999 VL 37 IS 1 BP 198 EP 200 DI 10.1257/jel.37.1.184.r11 PG 3 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 177YR UT WOS:000079239100015 ER PT J AU Kennickell, AB AF Kennickell, AB TI The distribution of wealth SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Letter C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Kennickell, AB (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 4 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 2 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0895-3309 J9 J ECON PERSPECT JI J. Econ. Perspect. PD SPR PY 1999 VL 13 IS 2 BP 240 EP 242 PG 3 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 200VR UT WOS:000080561200016 ER PT J AU Locke, PR Sarkar, A Wu, LF AF Locke, PR Sarkar, A Wu, LF TI Market liquidity and trader welfare in multiple dealer markets: Evidence from dual trading restrictions SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL AND QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS LA English DT Article ID CME RULE 552; FUTURES MARKETS; STOCK-EXCHANGE; IMPACT; SECURITIES; EXECUTION; QUALITY AB In the context of dual trading restrictions, we examine whether aggregate liquidity measures are appropriate indicators of trader welfare in multiple dealer markets. Consistent with our theoretical results, we show empirically that dual trading restrictions did not affect market liquidity significantly, but dual traders of above average skins may have quit brokerage and switched to trading exclusively for their own accounts following restrictions. Further, customers of these dual traders had lower trading costs in the period before restrictions relative to the trading costs of all customers after restrictions. C1 Commod Futures Trading Commiss, Lafayette Ctr 3, Washington, DC 20581 USA. Fed Reserve Bank New York, Res Dept, New York, NY 10045 USA. Calif State Univ Los Angeles, Dept Finance & Law, Los Angeles, CA 90032 USA. RP Locke, PR (reprint author), Commod Futures Trading Commiss, Lafayette Ctr 3, 2033 K St NW,, Washington, DC 20581 USA. NR 31 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 5 PU UNIV WASHINGTON SCH BUSINESS & ADMINISTRATION PI SEATTLE PA C/O OFFICE MANAGER, 115 LEWIS HALL, BOX 353200, SEATTLE, WA 98195-3200 USA SN 0022-1090 J9 J FINANC QUANT ANAL JI J. Financ. Quant. Anal. PD MAR PY 1999 VL 34 IS 1 BP 57 EP 88 DI 10.2307/2676246 PG 32 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 176PH UT WOS:000079160300003 ER PT J AU Kasa, K AF Kasa, K TI Will the fed ever learn? SO JOURNAL OF MACROECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID MONETARY-POLICY AB This paper studies optimal learning by a Central Bank that is unsure about the natural rate of unemployment and the slope of the Phillips Curve. Given its objective of stabilizing output and inflation, the Central Bank must balance the short-term benefits of behaving optimally given its current beliefs, or taking actions that are currently sub-optimal but which yield new information, and hence improve future performance. Using dynamic programming results from Easley and Kiefer (1988), this paper shows that the Central Bank may come to believe that there is an exploitable relationship between inflation and output, even when no such relationship exists. Thus, this paper provides another reason why monetary policy may be subject to a persistent inflation bias. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA. RP Kasa, K (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA. NR 20 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 1 PU LOUISIANA STATE UNIV PR PI BATON ROUGE PA BATON ROUGE, LA 70893 USA SN 0164-0704 J9 J MACROECON JI J. Macroecon. PD SPR PY 1999 VL 21 IS 2 BP 279 EP 292 DI 10.1016/S0164-0704(99)00103-2 PG 14 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 179NU UT WOS:000079335500004 ER PT J AU Cutler, DM Elmendorf, DW Zeckhauser, R AF Cutler, DM Elmendorf, DW Zeckhauser, R TI Restraining the Leviathan: property tax limitation in Massachusetts SO JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE tax limitations; proposition 2(1)/(2); agency loss; regret; overrides ID PUBLIC-EDUCATION; VOTERS; INSTITUTIONS; REFERENDA; STATES AB Proposition 2 1/2, a ballot initiative passed in Massachusetts in 1980, sharply reduced local property taxes. We examine why voters supported Proposition 2 1/2, using data on votes for the Proposition and for overrides of it a decade later. We find two reasons for the Proposition's support: people perceived agency losses from the difficulty of monitoring government, and people judged government to be inefficient because their tax burden was high. By the 1990s, people either regretted the severity of the Proposition's constraints or felt that its mission was accomplished. Voters in communities with larger initial tax cuts supported significantly more overrides. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. JEL classification: H1; H7; K0. C1 Harvard Univ, Dept Econ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. RP Cutler, DM (reprint author), Harvard Univ, Dept Econ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. NR 27 TC 25 Z9 25 U1 1 U2 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA PI LAUSANNE PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND SN 0047-2727 J9 J PUBLIC ECON JI J. Public Econ. PD MAR PY 1999 VL 71 IS 3 BP 313 EP 334 DI 10.1016/S0047-2727(98)00079-6 PG 22 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 173HT UT WOS:000078975600001 ER PT J AU Lee, J Hogarth, JM AF Lee, J Hogarth, JM TI The price of money: Consumers' understanding of APRs and contract interest rates SO JOURNAL OF PUBLIC POLICY & MARKETING LA English DT Article ID SEARCH BEHAVIOR; INFORMATION; KNOWLEDGE; MODEL; POLICY AB Both the contract interest rate and the annual percentage rate indicate the price of a loan. Consumer's understanding of these two measures of the price of closed-end consumer loans was examined using the 1997 University of Michigan Survey of Consumers. Among the mortgage borrowers, at least 40% of respondents failed to understand the relationship between these two price measures; education, quantity and quality of information search, and region were found to influence their understanding. The authors draw implications for improving information disclosure in consumer credit markets. C1 Univ Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 USA. Fed Reserve Syst, Div Consumer & Community Affairs, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Lee, J (reprint author), Univ Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 USA. NR 45 TC 28 Z9 28 U1 0 U2 7 PU AMER MARKETING ASSOC PI CHICAGO PA 311S WACKER DR, STE 5800, CHICAGO, IL 60606-6629 USA SN 0743-9156 J9 J PUBLIC POLICY MARK JI J. Public Policy Mark. PD SPR PY 1999 VL 18 IS 1 BP 66 EP 76 PG 11 WC Business SC Business & Economics GA 202QQ UT WOS:000080664000007 ER PT J AU Bohn, JG AF Bohn, JG TI Essentials of health care finance, 4th edition SO JOURNAL OF RISK AND INSURANCE LA English DT Book Review C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Bohn, JG (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER RISK INSURANCE ASSOC, INC PI MALVERN PA 716 PROVIDENCE ROAD, PO BOX 3028,, MALVERN, PA 19355-0728 USA SN 0022-4367 J9 J RISK INSUR JI J. Risk Insur. PD MAR PY 1999 VL 66 IS 1 BP 155 EP 156 DI 10.2307/253883 PG 2 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 295XH UT WOS:000085993600009 ER PT J AU Avery, RB Beeson, PE Sniderman, MS AF Avery, RB Beeson, PE Sniderman, MS TI Neighborhood information and home mortgage lending SO JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID MARKETS; RACE AB We use individual-level mortgage application data to empirically test for scale economies in neighborhood lending, and find evidence of significant economies associated with the scale of operation of individual lenders in a neighborhood. The inability to exploit these economies of scale is found to explain a substantial portion of the higher denial rates observed in low-income and minority neighborhoods, where the markets are generally thin. This is consistent with arguments that lenders rationally redline these neighborhoods, and suggest that policies that encourage lenders to share information, or to specialize in lending in these neighborhoods should increase credit flows to these neighborhoods. (C) 1999 Academic Press. C1 Univ Pittsburgh, Dept Econ, Pittsburgh, PA 15260 USA. Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Cleveland, OH 44101 USA. RP Beeson, PE (reprint author), Univ Pittsburgh, Dept Econ, Pittsburgh, PA 15260 USA. NR 20 TC 14 Z9 14 U1 1 U2 2 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 USA SN 0094-1190 J9 J URBAN ECON JI J. Urban Econ. PD MAR PY 1999 VL 45 IS 2 BP 287 EP 310 DI 10.1006/juec.1998.2101 PG 24 WC Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA 170WV UT WOS:000078830800005 ER PT J AU Lehnert, A Ligon, E Townsend, RM AF Lehnert, A Ligon, E Townsend, RM TI Liquidity constraints and incentive contracts SO MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS LA English DT Article DE credit constraints; moral hazard; optimal contracts ID PRIVATE INFORMATION; MORAL HAZARD; MARKETS; MODELS; CREDIT; OPTIMA AB Are firms and households constrained in the use of a productive input? Theoretical approaches to this question range from exogenously imposed credit allocation rules to endogenous market failures stemming from some sort of limited-commitment or moral-hazard problem. However, when testing for constraints, researchers often simply ask firms or households if they would wish to borrow more at the current interest rate and/or test fur suboptimal use of inputs in production functions relative to a full-information, full-commitment benchmark. We demonstrate that if credit is part of a much larger information-constrained (or limited-commitment) incentive scheme, then input use may very well be distorted away from the first-best. Further, households and firms, in certain well-defined circumstances, may, at the true interest rate or opportunity cost of credit, desire to borrow more (or less) than the assigned level of credit. In other, more constrained, contractual regimes, firms and households would say that they do not want to borrow more (or less), but these regimes are decidedly suboptimal, although the magnitude of the loss does depend on parameter values. We conclude with empirical methods that, in principle, could allow researchers armed with enough data to estimate parameters and distinguish regimes. Researchers then could see if firms and households are truly constrained and, if so, what the welfare loss might be. C1 Univ Chicago, Dept Econ, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Univ Calif Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, Chicago, IL USA. RP Townsend, RM (reprint author), Univ Chicago, Dept Econ, 1126 E 59th St, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. RI Ligon, Ethan/H-8749-2012 NR 19 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 0 PU CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS PI NEW YORK PA 40 WEST 20TH STREET, NEW YORK, NY 10011-4211 USA SN 1365-1005 J9 MACROECON DYN JI Macroecon. Dyn. PD MAR PY 1999 VL 3 IS 1 BP 1 EP 47 PG 47 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 186WE UT WOS:000079753000001 ER PT J AU Fallick, BC AF Fallick, BC TI Part-time work and industry growth SO MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW LA English DT Article AB From 1983 to 1993, faster growing U.S. industries tended to employ more part-time workers; because no such relationship was evident before 1980, it is doubtful that industry growth and part-time work are intrinsically related. C1 Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC USA. RP Fallick, BC (reprint author), Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC USA. NR 3 TC 10 Z9 10 U1 0 U2 0 PU US GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE PI WASHINGTON PA SUPERINTENDENT DOCUMENTS,, WASHINGTON, DC 20402-9325 USA SN 0098-1818 J9 MON LABOR REV JI Mon. Labor Rev. PD MAR PY 1999 VL 122 IS 3 BP 22 EP 29 PG 8 WC Industrial Relations & Labor SC Business & Economics GA 196NN UT WOS:000080314600003 ER PT J AU Aaronson, D AF Aaronson, D TI The effect of school finance reform on population heterogeneity SO NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL LA English DT Article ID RESIDENTIAL-MOBILITY; FISCAL EQUALIZATION; PUBLIC-EDUCATION; QUALITY MATTER; LOCAL PROPERTY; TIEBOUT MODEL; TAX REVOLT; GROWTH; STATE; LIMITATIONS AB This paper tests whether state school finance reform alters neighborhood income homogeneity. One implication of the Tiebout model is that within-community homogeneity declines as a result of an exogenous decrease in the ability of jurisdictions to set local tax and expenditure levels. The property tax revolt and the school finance equalization reform of the 1970s and 1980s offer a test of the role of state fiscal reform on aggregate population sorting behavior. The results show that school finance has a significant effect on school district income sorting, especially among low-income communities. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Res Dept, Chicago, IL 60604 USA. RP Aaronson, D (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Res Dept, Chicago, IL 60604 USA. NR 58 TC 10 Z9 10 U1 2 U2 2 PU NATL TAX ASSN PI COLUMBUS PA 5310 EAST MAIN ST, COLUMBUS, OH 43213 USA SN 0028-0283 J9 NATL TAX J JI Natl. Tax J. PD MAR PY 1999 VL 52 IS 1 BP 5 EP 29 PG 25 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 183LE UT WOS:000079554400001 ER PT J AU Cohen, D Hassett, KA AF Cohen, D Hassett, KA TI Inflation, taxes, and the durability of capital SO NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL LA English DT Article AB Auerbach demonstrated that inflation can lead to interasset distortions, with the negative effects of higher inflation unambiguously declining with asset life in the case of geometric economic and tax depreciation. We show that, when tax depreciation is straight-line, higher inflation can have the opposite effect, discouraging investment in long-lived assets. Also, we present several examples showing that, under historically relevant U.S. tax rules, higher inflation can sometimes favor relatively short-lived equipment, although the bias is always small. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Amer Enterprise Inst Publ Policy Res, Washington, DC 20036 USA. RP Cohen, D (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 10 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 3 PU NATL TAX ASSN PI COLUMBUS PA 5310 EAST MAIN ST, COLUMBUS, OH 43213 USA SN 0028-0283 J9 NATL TAX J JI Natl. Tax J. PD MAR PY 1999 VL 52 IS 1 BP 91 EP 98 PG 8 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 183LE UT WOS:000079554400006 ER PT J AU Stavins, J AF Stavins, J TI Checking accounts: What do banks offer and what do consumers value? SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Comparisons among state unemployment insurance systems can be misleading. Frequently quoted Indicators of the generosity of their benefits, competitiveness, and adherence to the experience-rating principle are influenced by states' relative economic conditions, thereby obscuring underlying structural differences. Moreover, because the indicators are statewide averages, they obscure important intrastate differences in tax and benefit treatment across types of firms and workers. This article offers alternative indicators based on a simulation approach designed to alleviate these problems. The authors use the simulated experiences of representative workers and firms to compare 28 states and contrast the results with those obtained from more conventional indicators. Given the intricacy of the issues and the harsh trade-offs involved, it is not surprising that debates concerning state UI policy are so contentious. The authors point out that policymakers reviewing the simulations can gain insight into the nature of the trade-offs among policy goals entailed in various UI options. This may even help them to identify "win-win" situations, in which a policy innovation that furthers one goal simultaneously furthers another. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Boston, MA 02106 USA. RP Stavins, J (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Boston, MA 02106 USA. NR 35 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAR-APR PY 1999 BP 3 EP + PG 13 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 193RU UT WOS:000080150900001 ER PT J AU Tannenwald, R O'Leary, CJ Huang, WJ AF Tannenwald, R O'Leary, CJ Huang, WJ TI New ways of evaluating state unemployment insurance SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID JOB AB This article offers alternative indicators based on a simulation approach designed to alleviate these problems. The authors use the simulated experiences of representative workers and firms to compare 28 states and contrast the results with those obtained from more conventional indicators. Given the intricacy of the issues and the harsh trade-offs involved, it is not surprising that debates concerning state UI policy are so contentious. The authors point out that policymakers reviewing the simulations can gain insight into the nature of the trade-offs among policy goals entailed in various UI options. This may even help them to identify "win-win" situations, in which a policy innovation that furthers one goal simultaneously furthers another. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Tannenwald, R (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 17 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 2 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAR-APR PY 1999 BP 15 EP + PG 27 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 193RU UT WOS:000080150900002 ER PT J AU Haltiwanger, JC Schuh, S AF Haltiwanger, JC Schuh, S TI Gross job flows between plants and industries SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID CYCLICAL UNEMPLOYMENT; SECTORAL SHIFTS; REALLOCATION; DESTRUCTION; CREATION; MODEL AB A remarkable feature of the current U.S. economic expansion has been its ability to shrug off the adverse effects of financial crises and economic slowdowns around the world for nearly two years. Recently, however, foreign-sector developments have triggered a sizable shift in the sectoral composition of U.S. employment. By early 1999, employment growth in the goods-producing sector had stalled, while employment growth in the service-producing sector was still humming along. Historically, substantial shifts in labor demand between sectors have been correlated with the business cycle. But recent developments are unusual and highlight our incomplete understanding of this correlation. This article provides new data and evidence on the connection between shifts in labor demand, or job reallocation, and the business cycle. The authors find that all meaningful measures of job reallocation between plants and between industries are significantly countercyclical. They also find econometric evidence that job reallocation may be an important determinant of the natural rate of unemployment, and that dispersion in relative prices may be an important determinant of reallocation. C1 Univ Maryland, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. US Bur Census, Washington, DC 20233 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Haltiwanger, JC (reprint author), Univ Maryland, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. NR 32 TC 10 Z9 11 U1 3 U2 4 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAR-APR PY 1999 BP 41 EP + PG 25 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 193RU UT WOS:000080150900003 ER PT J AU Brada, JC Kutan, AM AF Brada, JC Kutan, AM TI The persistence of moderate inflation in the Czech Republic SO POST-SOVIET GEOGRAPHY AND ECONOMICS LA English DT Article AB The Co-Editor of Post-Soviet Geography and Economics, an authority on the transition economies of Eastern Europe, joins a Federal Reserve Bank economist in a study of inflation in the Czech Republic, providing data from 1991 through the second quarter of 1998. After explaining the relationship between Czech inflation, exchange-rate and macroeconomic policies, and the koruna crisis of May 1997, the authors examine and discuss some explanations for the persistence of moderate inflation at a level of 10 percent. They conclude by examining policy implications of their findings in the context of the Czech National Bank's new policy of inflation targeting. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E31, E47, E58, O52. 3 figures, 8 tables, 22 references. C1 Arizona State Univ, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Univ Calif Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. So Illinois Univ, Edwardsville, IL 62026 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, St Louis, MO USA. RP Brada, JC (reprint author), Arizona State Univ, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. NR 21 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 0 PU V H WINSTON & SON INC PI PALM BEACH PA 360 SOUTH OCEAN BLVD, PH-B, PALM BEACH, FL 33480 USA SN 1088-9388 J9 POST-SOV GEOGR ECON JI Post-Sov. Geogr. Econ. PD MAR PY 1999 VL 40 IS 2 BP 121 EP 134 PG 14 WC Economics; Geography SC Business & Economics; Geography GA 176KM UT WOS:000079150300006 ER PT J AU Crone, TM Voith, RP AF Crone, TM Voith, RP TI Risk and return within the single-family housing market SO REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID PORTFOLIO AB The trade-off between risk and return in equity markets is well established. This paper examines the existence of the same trade-off in the single-family housing market. That market is dominated by homeowners, who constitute about two-thirds of U.S, households. For them the choice about how much housing and what house to buy is a joint consumption-investment decision. Furthermore, owner-occupied housing is by nature a lumpy investment whose risk cannot be completely diversified. Does this consumption-investment link negate the risk-return trade-off within the single-family housing market? Theory suggests the link still holds. This paper supplies empirical evidence in support of that theoretical result. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Philadelphia, PA 19106 USA. RP Crone, TM (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Philadelphia, PA 19106 USA. NR 10 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 4 PU AMER REAL ESTATE URBAN ECONOMICS ASSOC PI BLOOMINGTON PA INDIANA UNIV, SCHOOL BUSINESS, RM 428, 1309 E TENTH ST, BLOOMINGTON, IN 47405 USA SN 1080-8620 J9 REAL ESTATE ECON JI Real Estate Econ. PD SPR PY 1999 VL 27 IS 1 BP 63 EP 78 DI 10.1111/1540-6229.00766 PG 16 WC Business, Finance; Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA 194UV UT WOS:000080213200003 ER PT J AU Calem, PS Wachter, SM AF Calem, PS Wachter, SM TI Community reinvestment and credit risk: Evidence from an affordable-home-loan program SO REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID LOW-INCOME; PERFORMANCE; NEIGHBORHOODS AB This study examines the performance of home purchase loans originated by a major depository institution in Philadelphia under a flexible lending program between 1988 and 1994. We examine long-term delinquency in relation to neighborhood housing market conditions, borrower credit-history scores and other factors. We find that likelihood of delinquency declines with increasing neighborhood housing market activity. Also, likelihood of delinquency is greater for borrowers with low credit-history scores and those with high ratios of housing expense to income, and when the property is unusually expensive for the neighborhood where it is located. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Univ Penn, Wharton Sch, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. RP Calem, PS (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 20 TC 16 Z9 16 U1 1 U2 4 PU AMER REAL ESTATE URBAN ECONOMICS ASSOC PI BLOOMINGTON PA INDIANA UNIV, SCHOOL BUSINESS, RM 428, 1309 E TENTH ST, BLOOMINGTON, IN 47405 USA SN 1080-8620 J9 REAL ESTATE ECON JI Real Estate Econ. PD SPR PY 1999 VL 27 IS 1 BP 105 EP 134 DI 10.1111/1540-6229.00768 PG 30 WC Business, Finance; Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA 194UV UT WOS:000080213200005 ER PT J AU Robst, J Deitz, R McGoldrick, K AF Robst, J Deitz, R McGoldrick, K TI Income variability, uncertainty and housing tenure choice SO REGIONAL SCIENCE AND URBAN ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT American-Real-Estate-and-Urban-Economics-Association Meeting CY JAN 08, 1995 CL WASHINGTON, D.C. SP Amer Real Estate & Urban Econ Assoc DE housing choices; income uncertainty; liquidity ID DECISIONS; DEMAND; MODEL AB Prior theoretical and empirical studies, generally suggest that individuals facing greater uncertainty are less likely to own their home. However, Fu (1995) [Fu, Y., 1995. Uncertainty, liquidity, and housing choices. Regional Science and Urban Economics 25, 223-236] finds the theoretical relationship between uncertainty and housing choices is ambiguous. This paper employs several measures of uncertainty to reexamine the empirical relationship between uncertainty and housing tenure. Results indicate that income uncertainty reduces the likelihood of individuals owning homes at a point in time. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 SUNY Binghamton, Dept Econ, Binghamton, NY 13902 USA. Fed Reserve Bank New York, Buffalo, NY 14202 USA. Univ Richmond, Dept Econ, Richmond, VA 23173 USA. RP Robst, J (reprint author), SUNY Binghamton, Dept Econ, Binghamton, NY 13902 USA. EM bg0443@bingvmb.cc.binghamton.edu NR 16 TC 31 Z9 31 U1 0 U2 8 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0166-0462 J9 REG SCI URBAN ECON JI Reg. Sci. Urban Econ. PD MAR PY 1999 VL 29 IS 2 BP 219 EP 229 DI 10.1016/S0166-0462(98)00031-3 PG 11 WC Economics; Environmental Studies; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Urban Studies GA 158FD UT WOS:000078104600004 ER PT J AU Duffee, GR AF Duffee, GR TI Estimating the price of default risk SO REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES LA English DT Article ID TERM STRUCTURE; INTEREST-RATES; CREDIT RISK; MODEL; DEBT AB A firm's instantaneous probability of default is modeled as a translated square-root diffusion process modified to allow the process to be correlated with default-free interest rates, The parameters of the process are estimated for 161 firms. An extended Kalman filter approach is used that incorporates both the time-series and cross-sectional (term structure) properties of the individual firms' bond prices. The model is reasonably successful at fitting corporate bond yields, while key features of the term structures of yield spreads are captured in the signs and magnitudes of the resulting parameter estimates. C1 Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Duffee, GR (reprint author), Fed Reserve Board, Mail Stop 91, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 28 TC 164 Z9 170 U1 1 U2 15 PU OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC PI CARY PA JOURNALS DEPT, 2001 EVANS RD, CARY, NC 27513 USA SN 0893-9454 J9 REV FINANC STUD JI Rev. Financ. Stud. PD SPR PY 1999 VL 12 IS 1 BP 197 EP 226 DI 10.1093/rfs/12.1.197 PG 30 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 167DW UT WOS:000078618200008 ER PT J AU Pilloff, SJ AF Pilloff, SJ TI Multimarket contact in banking SO REVIEW OF INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION LA English DT Article DE multimarket contact; linked oligopoly; mutual forbearance; banking; antitrust ID MUTUAL FORBEARANCE; MARKET; BEHAVIOR AB According to linked oligopoly theory, the anticipated effect of multimarket contact is reduced competition Specifically, the theory predicts that contact lowers competition by reducing the benefit of aggressive action in any single market by providing rivals with the opportunity to retaliate in multiple common markets. The results of this paper are consistent with the theory. In banking, contact is positively related to profitability. Although the economic impact of this relationship is unimportant for most institutions, the relationship is meaningful for the small group of banks most heavily exposed to contact. This finding suggests that the importance of contact may rise as consolidation of the banking industry continues. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20051 USA. RP Pilloff, SJ (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, 20th & C St NW,Mailstop 149, Washington, DC 20051 USA. NR 31 TC 29 Z9 29 U1 0 U2 1 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0889-938X J9 REV IND ORGAN JI Rev. Ind. Organ. PD MAR PY 1999 VL 14 IS 2 BP 163 EP 182 DI 10.1023/A:1007779814751 PG 20 WC Economics; Management SC Business & Economics GA 170FL UT WOS:000078795600006 ER PT J AU Cole, H AF Cole, H TI Foundations of international macroeconomics. SO ECONOMICA LA English DT Book Review C1 Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. RP Cole, H (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 2 U2 2 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD OX4 1JF, OXON, ENGLAND SN 0013-0427 J9 ECONOMICA JI Economica PD FEB PY 1999 VL 66 IS 261 BP 153 EP 154 PG 2 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 168LA UT WOS:000078693200011 ER PT J AU Davis, DR Weinstein, DE AF Davis, DR Weinstein, DE TI Economic geography and regional production structure: An empirical investigation SO EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 1997 ISIT Symposium on Economic Geography and Trade CY MAY 23-25, 1997 CL PARIS, FRANCE DE economic geography; home market; comparative advantage ID MANUFACTURING-INDUSTRIES; CITIES AB There are two principal theories of why countries or regions trade: comparative advantage and increasing returns to scale. Yet there is virtually no empirical work that assesses the relative importance of these two theories in accounting for production structure and trade. We use a framework that nests an increasing returns model of economic geography featuring 'home market effects' with that of Heckscher-Ohlin. We employ these trade models to account for the structure of regional production in Japan. We find support for the existence of economic geography effects in eight of nineteen manufacturing sectors, including such important ones as transportation equipment, iron and steel, electrical machinery, and chemicals. Moreover, we find that these effects are economically very significant. The latter contrasts with the results of Davis and Weinstein (1996, Does economic geography matter for interactional specialiazation?, NEBR not equal 5706), which found scant economic significance of economic geography for the structure of OECD production. We conclude that while economic geography may explain little about the international structure of production, it is very important for understanding the regional structure of production. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification: F1; D5; E1. C1 Univ Michigan, Sch Business Adm, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA. Harvard Univ, Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY USA. NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. RP Weinstein, DE (reprint author), Univ Michigan, Sch Business Adm, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA. NR 28 TC 108 Z9 114 U1 5 U2 16 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0014-2921 J9 EUR ECON REV JI Eur. Econ. Rev. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 43 IS 2 BP 379 EP 407 DI 10.1016/S0014-2921(98)00063-4 PG 29 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 155NL UT WOS:000077953200008 ER PT J AU Gomme, P AF Gomme, P TI Shirking, unemployment and aggregate fluctuations SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID ECONOMIC TIME-SERIES; BUSINESS-CYCLE; LABOR AB Empirically, real wages exhibit relatively little cyclical Variation and a weak cyclical pattern. Early real business cycle (RBC) models predict, to the contrary, large, procyclical real wage movements. Incorporating efficiency wages into a RBC environment would seem promising since one prediction from the efficiency wage literature is real wage rigidity. This paper evaluates a common microfoundation for efficiency wages, the shirking model, with respect to its predictions for rear wages within a RBC-style model. Simulations of the model reveal that it can generate dampened but still strongly procyclical real wage behavior. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. Univ Quebec, CREFE, Montreal, PQ, Canada. Univ Montreal, CRDE, Montreal, PQ H3C 3J7, Canada. RP Gomme, P (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. EM paul.a.gomme@clev.frb.org NR 24 TC 16 Z9 16 U1 0 U2 3 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 USA SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 40 IS 1 BP 3 EP 21 DI 10.1111/1468-2354.00002 PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 168FG UT WOS:000078680500001 ER PT J AU Berger, AN Demsetz, RS Strahan, PE AF Berger, AN Demsetz, RS Strahan, PE TI The consolidation of the financial services industry: Causes, consequences, and implications for the future SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Review DE banks; mergers; payments; small business ID GLASS-STEAGALL ACT; PRODUCT MIX ECONOMIES; UNITED-STATES BANKS; SCALE EFFICIENCY; MARKET-STRUCTURE; COMPETITIVE VIABILITY; LENDING RELATIONSHIPS; COMMERCIAL-BANKS; FEDERAL-RESERVE; CAPITAL-MARKETS AB This article designs a framework for evaluating the causes, consequences, and future implications of financial services industry consolidation, reviews the extant research literature within the context of this framework (over 250 references), and suggests fruitful avenues for future research. The evidence is consistent with increases in market power from some types of consolidation; improvements in profit efficiency and diversification of risks, but little or no cost efficiency improvement on average; relatively little effect on the availability of services to small customers; potential improvements in payments system efficiency; and potential costs on the financial system from increases in systemic risk or expansion of the financial safety net. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Wharton Financial Inst Ctr, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Berger, AN (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Fed Reserve Board, Mail Stop 153,20th & C Sts NW, Washington, DC 20551 USA. EM aberger@frb.gov NR 274 TC 299 Z9 302 U1 13 U2 56 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 23 IS 2-4 BP 135 EP 194 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00125-3 PG 60 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 175RR UT WOS:000079109200001 ER PT J AU Hughes, JP Lang, WW Mester, LJ Moon, CG AF Hughes, JP Lang, WW Mester, LJ Moon, CG TI The dollars and sense of bank consolidation SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE bank; consolidation; mergers; diversification; efficiency ID RISK; INSTITUTIONS; MERGERS AB For nearly two decades banks in the US have consolidated in record numbers - in terms of both frequency and the size of the merging institutions. Rhoades (1996) (S.A. Rhoades, 1996. Bank Mergers and Industrywide Structure, 1980-1994. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Staff Study 169) hypothesizes that the main motivations were increased potential for geographic expansion created by changes in state laws regulating branching and a more favorable antitrust climate. To look for evidence of economic incentives to exploit these improved opportunities for consolidation, we examine how consolidation affects expected profit, the riskiness of profit, profit efficiency, market value, market-value efficiencies, and the risk of insolvency. Our estimates of expected profit, profit risk, and profit efficiency are based on a structural model of leveraged portfolio production that was estimated for a sample of highest-level US bank holding companies by Hughes et al. (1996) (Hughes et al., 1996. Efficient banking under interstate branching, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 28, 1045-1071.) Here, we also estimate two additional measures that gauge efficiency in terms of the market values of assets and of equity. Our findings suggest that the economic benefits of consolidation are strongest for those banks engaged in interstate expansion and, in particular, interstate expansion that diversifies banks' macroeconomic risk. Not only do these banks experience clear gains in their financial performance, but society also benefits from the enhanced bank safety that follows from this type of consolidation. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Philadelphia, Res Dept, Philadelphia, PA 19106 USA. Off Comptroller Currency, Washington, DC 20219 USA. Rutgers State Univ, Dept Econ, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA. Univ Penn, Wharton Sch, Dept Finance, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. Hanyang Univ, Dept Econ, Seoul 133791, South Korea. RP Mester, LJ (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Philadelphia, Res Dept, 10 Independence Mall, Philadelphia, PA 19106 USA. EM jphughes@rci.rutgers.edu; william.lang@occ.treas.gov; loretta.mes-ter@phil.frb.org RI Moon, Choon-Geol/C-1768-2017 OI Moon, Choon-Geol/0000-0002-2933-9150 NR 26 TC 75 Z9 75 U1 2 U2 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 23 IS 2-4 BP 291 EP 324 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00088-0 PG 34 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 175RR UT WOS:000079109200008 ER PT J AU Peristiani, S AF Peristiani, S TI The impact of mergers on credit union service provision - Comment SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Editorial Material ID ECONOMIES; SCALE C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, Res Dept, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Peristiani, S (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, Res Dept, 33 Liberty St, New York, NY 10045 USA. EM steve.peristiani@ny.frb.org NR 3 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 1 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 23 IS 2-4 BP 387 EP 390 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00091-0 PG 4 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 175RR UT WOS:000079109200012 ER PT J AU Hancock, D Humphrey, DB Wilcox, JA AF Hancock, D Humphrey, DB Wilcox, JA TI Cost reductions in electronic payments: The roles of consolidation, economies of scale, and technical change SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE consolidation savings; scale economies; fedwire ID FEDERAL-RESERVE AB Unfettered nationwide bank branching raises the issue of whether consolidation of banks' ''back-office" operations, such as their payment processing, reduces operating costs. Whether centralized processing of payments reduces costs depends on the size and range of scale economies, the relative prices of data processing and telecommunication inputs, and changes in technology in addition to the number of sites operated. While consolidating payment operations into fewer sites may reduce average data processing costs, these cost savings may be more than offset by associated increases in telecommunications expenses. To investigate the potential effects of consolidation on future banking operations, we look at the experience of the Federal Reserve in consolidating its Fedwire electronic funds transfer operation over 1979 to 1996. Previous research suggested that scale economies in Fedwire payment processing were minimal and that the observed declines in average Fedwire production costs were largely attributable to technical advance. Our estimates suggest more nearly the opposite. We find that the Fedwire funds transfer operation exhibited large scale economies but little technical advance beyond that already embodied in the technology-adjusted input prices of data processing and telecommunication inputs. We also find that the consolidation of Fedwire into fewer offices contributed around one-fourth of the overall reduction in Fedwire average cost. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Florida State Univ, Coll Business, Dept Finance, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA. Univ Calif Berkeley, Haas Sch Business, Student Serv 545, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. RP Hancock, D (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Mail Stop 153, Washington, DC 20551 USA. EM mldxh00@mfsmsl.frb.gov NR 33 TC 29 Z9 30 U1 1 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 23 IS 2-4 BP 391 EP 421 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00108-3 PG 31 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 175RR UT WOS:000079109200013 ER PT J AU Hendricks, D AF Hendricks, D TI Cost reductions in electronic payments: The roles of consolidation, economies of scale, and technical change - Comment SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Hendricks, D (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, 33 Liberty St, New York, NY 10045 USA. EM darrll.hen-dricks@ny.frb.org NR 0 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 23 IS 2-4 BP 422 EP 426 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00109-5 PG 5 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 175RR UT WOS:000079109200014 ER PT J AU Jayaratne, J Wolken, J AF Jayaratne, J Wolken, J TI How important are small banks to small business lending? New evidence from a survey of small firms SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE small business lending; bank mergers AB Typically, small banks lend a larger proportion of their assets to small businesses than do large banks. The recent wave of bank mergers has thinned the ranks of small banks, raising the concern that small firms may find it difficult to access bank credit. However, bank consolidation will reduce small business credit only if small banks enjoy an advantage in lending to small businesses. We test the existence of a small bank cost advantage in small business lending by conducting the following simple test: If such advantages exist, then we should observe small businesses in areas with few small banks to have less bank credit. Using data on small business borrowers from the 1993 National Survey of Small Business Finance, we find that the probability of a small firm having a line of credit from a bank does not decrease in the long run when there are fewer small banks in the area, although short-run disruptions may occur. Nor do we find that firms in areas with few small banks are any more likely to repay trade credit late, suggesting that such firms are no more credit constrained than firms in areas with many small banks. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Res & Stat, Financial Struct Sect, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Tilden Grp, Oakland, CA 94618 USA. RP Wolken, J (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Res & Stat, Financial Struct Sect, Washington, DC 20551 USA. EM mljdw00@frb.gov NR 15 TC 41 Z9 42 U1 1 U2 15 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 23 IS 2-4 BP 427 EP 458 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00085-5 PG 32 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 175RR UT WOS:000079109200015 ER PT J AU DeYoung, R Goldberg, LG White, LJ AF DeYoung, R Goldberg, LG White, LJ TI Youth, adolescence, and maturity of banks: Credit availability to small business in an era of banking consolidation SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE small business lending; de novo banks; life cycle of the firm ID LENDING RELATIONSHIPS; MARKETS AB This paper addresses the relationship between the aging process at new and relatively young banks and the tendency of banks to make loans to small businesses. Defining small business loans as C&I loans that are under $1 million in size, we analyze a sample of banks that had assets of less than $500 million in assets for the years 1993-1996 and that were 25 years of age or younger. We find, as have earlier studies, that banks' proclivities for small business lending are negatively related to their age and to their size. We proceed much farther, however, by introducing a number of additional explanatory variables, including the start-up year of the bank. We find that small business lending is negatively related to its being part of a MBHC. Also, small business lending is positively related to higher concentration rates in urban areas but is negatively related to higher concentration in rural areas. Despite the inclusion of these additional variables and a number of alternative specifications, the negative effects of a bank's age on its small business lending persist. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 NYU, Stern Sch Business, New York, NY 10012 USA. Univ Miami, Dept Finance, Coral Gables, FL 33124 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Chicago, IL 60604 USA. RP White, LJ (reprint author), NYU, Stern Sch Business, 44 W 4th St, New York, NY 10012 USA. EM robert.deyoung@chi.frb.org; lgoldberg@sba02.msmail.miami.edu; lwhite@stern.nyu.edu NR 32 TC 39 Z9 40 U1 1 U2 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 23 IS 2-4 BP 463 EP 492 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00086-7 PG 30 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 175RR UT WOS:000079109200017 ER PT J AU Avery, RB Bostic, RW Calem, PS Canner, GB AF Avery, RB Bostic, RW Calem, PS Canner, GB TI Consolidation and bank branching patterns SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE bank; branch; merger; consolidation AB This paper examines the association between consolidation and changes in levels of bank branching as measured by changes in the number of bank branches per capita. Using a specially-constructed data set, we address this issue as well as how this relationship varies with the type of consolidation and initial regulatory, competitive, and market conditions. We find that merges where merging institutions have branch networks which overlap within a ZIP code (within-ZIP merger) are strongly associated with a reduction in offices per capita in that ZIP code. This result is robust across time and holds in both rural and urban areas. The findings also suggest that, contrary to popularly held views, consolidation is not unambiguously negatively associated with changes in the number of banking offices per capita. Neither within-market-but-not-within-ZIP mergers nor out-of-market mergers consistently show such a relationship. We also find that the relationships between within-ZIP and within-market-but-not-within-ZIP mergers and changes in the number of bank offices per capita are more negative in low-income neighborhoods than in other neighborhoods. However, because most states now have unrestricted branching and because savings associations are less prevalent and financially healthier than in the past, these findings may not be indicative of future branching patterns. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Bostic, RW (reprint author), Fed Reserve Board, 20th & C St NW, Washington, DC 20551 USA. EM rbostic@frb.gov NR 7 TC 16 Z9 16 U1 1 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 23 IS 2-4 BP 497 EP 532 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00094-6 PG 36 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 175RR UT WOS:000079109200019 ER PT J AU Peek, J Rosengren, ES Kasirye, F AF Peek, J Rosengren, ES Kasirye, F TI The poor performance of foreign bank subsidiaries: Were the problems acquired or created? SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE foreign banks; bank acquisitions; bank performance ID UNITED-STATES AB We examine foreign acquisitions of United States banks around the time of the ownership change to determine whether the observed poor performance of foreign subsidiaries is the result of changes in business strategy or the preexisting characteristics of the target bank. We find that many of the problems were already present at the time of acquisition. However, changes in business strategy by the foreign owners were generally not successful in raising the bank's performance level to that of its domestic peers. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Dept Res, Boston, MA 02106 USA. Boston Coll, Dept Econ, Chestnut Hill, MA 02167 USA. RP Rosengren, ES (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Dept Res, 600 Atlantic Ave, Boston, MA 02106 USA. EM eric.rosengren@bos.frb.org NR 12 TC 27 Z9 27 U1 1 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 23 IS 2-4 BP 579 EP 604 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00082-X PG 26 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 175RR UT WOS:000079109200023 ER PT J AU Eisenbeis, RA AF Eisenbeis, RA TI The poor performance of foreign bank subsidiaries: Were the problems acquired or created? Comment SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. RP Eisenbeis, RA (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, 104 Marietta St NW, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. NR 0 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 23 IS 2-4 BP 605 EP 607 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00083-1 PG 3 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 175RR UT WOS:000079109200024 ER PT J AU Kashyap, AK AF Kashyap, AK TI What should regulators do about merger policy? SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE bank regulation; mergers AB I argue that merger policy needs to be driven by different considerations in Europe, Japan and the United States. In Europe the main challenge is to set up a system so that efficient consolidation can occur once the single currency is established. In Japan the policy ought to be directed towards trying to attract foreign institutions to acquire under-capitalized domestic institutions. Japan does not seem to be taking this route. In the US consolidation it is already occurring and the current policy should be continued. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Chicago, Grad Sch Business, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Chicago, IL USA. RP Kashyap, AK (reprint author), Univ Chicago, Grad Sch Business, 1101 E 58th St, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. EM anil.kashyap@gsb.uchicago.edu NR 1 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 1 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 23 IS 2-4 BP 623 EP 627 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00097-1 PG 5 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 175RR UT WOS:000079109200027 ER PT J AU Kwast, ML AF Kwast, ML TI Bank mergers: What should policymakers do? SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE antitrust; banks; mergers AB These remarks discuss why the "cluster" of financial services and local banking markets are still relevant for antitrust analysis in banking. A key portion of the Federal Reserve's Order approving the NationsBank-Barnett merger is interpreted, and the extent to which antitrust is a practical constraint on the development of a nationwide banking structure is commented upon. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Kwast, ML (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, 20th & C St NW, Washington, DC 20551 USA. EM mlmlk00@frb.gov NR 8 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 23 IS 2-4 BP 629 EP 636 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00098-3 PG 8 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 175RR UT WOS:000079109200028 ER PT J AU Koop, G Potter, SM AF Koop, G Potter, SM TI Bayes factors and nonlinearity: Evidence from economic time series SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS LA English DT Article DE bayes factor; Markov chain Monte Carlo; Markov trend model; threshold autoregressive model ID NUISANCE PARAMETER; INFERENCE; TESTS AB This paper argues in favor of a Bayesian approach to evaluating evidence of nonlinearity in economic time series over the classical approach that has been dominant in the applied literature. An application is presented concerning nonlinearity in US GNP. (C) 1999 Published by Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. JEL classification: C11; C12; C32. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, Domest Res Funct, New York, NY 10045 USA. Univ Edinburgh, Dept Econ, Edinburgh EH8 9JY, Midlothian, Scotland. RP Potter, SM (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, Domest Res Funct, 33 Liberty St, New York, NY 10045 USA. EM simon.potter@ny.frb.org NR 27 TC 46 Z9 46 U1 2 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA PI LAUSANNE PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND SN 0304-4076 J9 J ECONOMETRICS JI J. Econom. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 88 IS 2 BP 251 EP 281 DI 10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00031-1 PG 31 WC Economics; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA 143GZ UT WOS:000077248000004 ER PT J AU Bowman, D Minehart, D Rabin, M AF Bowman, D Minehart, D Rabin, M TI Loss aversion in a consumption-savings model SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION LA English DT Article DE consumption; habit formation; loss aversion; reference points; risk aversion; savings ID PERMANENT-INCOME HYPOTHESIS; EQUITY PREMIUM PUZZLE; HABIT FORMATION; PROSPECT-THEORY; RISK AB We propose a model of consumption and saving based on Kahneman and Tversky's Prospect Theory that implies a fundamental asymmetry in consumption behavior inconsistent with other models of consumption. When there is sufficient income uncertainty, a person resists lowering consumption in response to bad news about future income. This resistance is greater than the resistance to increasing consumption in response to good news. We present empirical evidence from five countries that confirms this behavior. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification: A12; B49; C91; D11; D81; E21. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Bowman, D (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Int Finance, Mail Stop 24, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 32 TC 90 Z9 95 U1 4 U2 8 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-2681 J9 J ECON BEHAV ORGAN JI J. Econ. Behav. Organ. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 38 IS 2 BP 155 EP 178 DI 10.1016/S0167-2681(99)00004-9 PG 24 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 184AH UT WOS:000079586800003 ER PT J AU Helwege, J AF Helwege, J TI How long do junk bonds spend in default? SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Article ID FINANCIAL DISTRESS; DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS; MANAGEMENT TURNOVER; CHAPTER-11; BANKRUPTCY; REORGANIZATION; WORKOUTS; INVESTMENT; PRIORITY; FIRMS AB This paper analyzes junk bond defaults during 1980 to 1991 to determine which factors affect the length of time spent in default. Bondholder holdouts are not a significant problem, as firms with proportionately more bonds have shorter default spells. In contrast, bank debt is associated with slower restructurings. Bargaining problems arising from contingent liabilities, lawsuits, and size delay the process, although multiple bond classes do not. Neither information problems nor firm value appear to matter. HLTs do not resolve their defaults at a significantly faster pace. Defaults tend to take less time in the 1990s, despite Drexel's disappearance from the market. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Helwege, J (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 30 TC 21 Z9 21 U1 3 U2 9 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI HOBOKEN PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA SN 0022-1082 EI 1540-6261 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 54 IS 1 BP 341 EP 357 DI 10.1111/0022-1082.00107 PG 17 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 164HP UT WOS:000078457800011 ER PT J AU Butler, A Dueker, M AF Butler, A Dueker, M TI Does foreign innovation affect domestic wage inequality? SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE innovation; wage differentials; foreign competition; patents ID QUALITY LADDERS; REGRESSION; DEMAND; TIME AB We use an open-economy product-cycle model of domestic high-tech/low-tech wages to motivate an empirical specification and test key model-implied restrictions. With data for 11 countries from an internationally comparable data set from the OECD, we conduct panel cointegration analysis that supports the hypothesis that foreign and domestic innovation rates affect domestic wage inequality by equal and opposite magnitudes. The estimated elasticities imply that a 10% increase in the domestic (foreign) innovation rate leads to a 3% increase (decrease) in the high-tech wage rate, relative to the low-tech wage. An atheoretic empirical regression that includes several of the same variables, but not the same specification as the product-cycle model, fails to yield significant results, in contrast to the specification derived from the product-cycle model. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Florida Int Univ, Dept Econ, Miami, FL 33199 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, Dept Res, St Louis, MO 63166 USA. RP Butler, A (reprint author), Florida Int Univ, Dept Econ, Univ Pk, Miami, FL 33199 USA. EM butlera@fiu.edu NR 27 TC 3 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 47 IS 1 BP 61 EP 89 DI 10.1016/S0022-1996(98)00014-2 PG 29 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 153JH UT WOS:000077829600003 ER PT J AU van Wincoop, E AF van Wincoop, E TI How big are potential welfare gains from international risksharing? SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE international risksharing; welfare gains ID DIVERSIFICATION; MARKETS; GROWTH; TRADE AB There is extensive evidence that risksharing across countries is far from perfect. Some have attributed this to small benefits from risksharing. Gains from riskpooling that have been reported range from negligible to enormous. This paper documents to what extent the results are sensitive to the parameterization of preferences, the stochastic process of the endowment, and its measurement. We find that gains from risksharing are quite sizable for realistic assumptions about the underlying factors. For OECD countries they are equivalent to a permanent increase in tradables consumption in the range of 1.1 to 3.5% for a 50 year horizon, and 2.5 to 7.4% for a 100 year horizon. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP van Wincoop, E (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, 33 Liberty St, New York, NY 10045 USA. EM eric.vanwincoop@ny.frb.org NR 37 TC 49 Z9 50 U1 1 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 47 IS 1 BP 109 EP 135 DI 10.1016/S0022-1996(98)00007-5 PG 27 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 153JH UT WOS:000077829600005 ER PT J AU Faust, J Irons, JS AF Faust, J Irons, JS TI Money, politics and the post-war business cycle SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE political business cycle; monetary policy ID MACROECONOMIC POLICY; FEDERAL-RESERVE; MONETARY-POLICY; UNITED-STATES; ELECTIONS; OUTCOMES; ECONOMY; PARTIES; MODELS; MATTER AB The political economy literature has enshrined as stylized fact the view that lower inflation and temporarily lower growth follow the election of Republican presidents and has emphasized political manipulation of monetary policy as an explanation. Support for the monetary explanation comes in econometric work that largely ignores identification issues that dominate the literature on measuring the effects of monetary policy. We generalize a standard vector autoregression framework to accommodate discrete, political party variables. We find almost no support for the view that political effects on the macroeconomy operate through monetary policy and only weak evidence that political effects are significant at all. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification. E30; E52. C1 Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA. MIT, Dept Econ, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. RP Faust, J (reprint author), Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA. EM faustj@frb.gov NR 58 TC 36 Z9 36 U1 0 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 43 IS 1 BP 61 EP 89 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(98)00046-4 PG 29 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 156TZ UT WOS:000078019300003 ER PT J AU Tootell, GMB AF Tootell, GMB TI Whose monetary policy is it anyway? SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE goal-independence; monetary policy ID DISCRETION; COMMITMENT; RULES; MODEL AB The rising inflation of the 1970s inspired substantial theoretical analysis of the goals of central banks. In models with time-inconsistent monetary policy, central bankers are assumed to produce positive equilibrium inflation because they target an unemployment rate below the NAIRU. Ball (1995) notes that these models could explain the level of inflation but not its frequent and persistent movements. Although real shocks, as in Rogoff (1985), can produce temporary changes in inflation, Ball explains the recurrent and persistent movements in inflation throughout the past 40 years with random changes in the preferences of the monetary policymakers, occurring even at the frequency of FOMC meetings. This paper provides empirical support that shifts in goals can indeed occur at this frequency. However, it is not necessarily the tastes of the policymakers that are changing; the FOMC's reading of the policy desired by the public can evolve over time, and if the FOMC is not completely goal-independent, it will accommodate these changes. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification: E52; E58. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Boston, MA 02106 USA. RP Tootell, GMB (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Boston, MA 02106 USA. NR 17 TC 8 Z9 8 U1 1 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 43 IS 1 BP 217 EP 235 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(98)00041-5 PG 19 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 156TZ UT WOS:000078019300009 ER PT J AU Ohanian, LE AF Ohanian, LE TI The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American economy in the twentieth century SO JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Book Review AB This article reviews The Defining Moment, edited by Michael D. Bordo, Claudia Goldin, and Eugene N. White. The volume studies how the Great Depression changed government policies, including changes in monetary policy, fiscal policy, banking policy, agricultural policy, social insurance, and international economic policy. I argue that a theory of policy evolution is required to answer how the Great Depression affected these policies. In the absence of this theory, the contributors provide insight into the question by showing how policies changed sharply in the 1930s with little or no historical precedent or by showing how policies were tied to political or other considerations unique to the period. While this volume does not always provide answers to the questions posed, it does raise a fundamental issue in the analysis of government policy: Why during some crisis periods are bad policies adopted, whereas during other periods they are not?. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55401 USA. Univ Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. RP Ohanian, LE (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55401 USA. NR 8 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 1 U2 5 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 SOUTH WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637-1603 USA SN 0022-3808 J9 J POLIT ECON JI J. Polit. Econ. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 107 IS 1 BP 178 EP 185 DI 10.1086/250055 PG 8 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 161NH UT WOS:000078295000007 ER PT J AU Velde, F AF Velde, F TI John Law: Economic theorist and policy-maker. SO JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Book Review C1 Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Chicago, IL 60604 USA. RP Velde, F (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Chicago, IL 60604 USA. NR 6 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 SOUTH WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637-1603 USA SN 0022-3808 J9 J POLIT ECON JI J. Polit. Econ. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 107 IS 1 BP 201 EP 204 DI 10.1086/250058 PG 4 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 161NH UT WOS:000078295000010 ER PT J AU Laster, D Bennett, P Geoum, IS AF Laster, D Bennett, P Geoum, IS TI Rational bias in macroeconomic forecasts SO QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID PRICE FORECASTS; EXPECTATIONS AB Do professional forecasters provide their true unbiased estimates, or do they behave strategically? In our model, forecasters have common information, confer actively, and thus know the true pdf of future outcomes. Intensive users of economic forecasts monitor forecasters' performance closely; occasional users are drawn to the forecaster who fared best in the previous period. In the resulting Nash equilibrium, even though economists have identical expectations, they make a range of projections that mimics the true probability distribution of the forecast variable. Those whose wages depend most on publicity produce forecasts that differ most from the consensus. Empirical evidence supports the model. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY USA. Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co, New York, NY USA. NR 14 TC 117 Z9 117 U1 1 U2 12 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0033-5533 J9 Q J ECON JI Q. J. Econ. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 114 IS 1 BP 293 EP 318 DI 10.1162/003355399555918 PG 26 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 183MK UT WOS:000079557200009 ER PT B AU McGranahan, L AF McGranahan, L BE Chernick, H TI Voter preferences for capital and debt spending: Evidence from state debt referenda SO 91ST ANNUAL CONFERENCE ON TAXATION, PROCEEDINGS LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 91st Annual Conference on Taxation CY NOV 08-10, 1998 CL AUSTIN, TX SP Natl Tax Assoc C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Chicago, IL USA. NR 12 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU NATIONAL TAX ASSOCIATION PI WASHINGTON PA 725 15TH ST NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20005-2109 USA PY 1999 BP 115 EP 124 PG 10 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA BQ63F UT WOS:000089017900017 ER PT J AU Corsetti, G Pesenti, P AF Corsetti, G Pesenti, P TI Stability, asymmetry, and discontinuity: The launch of European Monetary Union SO BROOKINGS PAPERS ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 68th Conference of the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity CY SEP 02-03, 1999 CL WASHINGTON, D.C. ID TRANSMISSION; POLICY; EMU C1 Yale Univ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA. Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Corsetti, G (reprint author), Yale Univ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA. OI Corsetti, Giancarlo/0000-0001-8965-9853 NR 89 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 3 PU BROOKINGS INST PI WASHINGTON PA 1775 MASSACHUSETTS AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20036 USA SN 0007-2303 J9 BROOKINGS PAP ECO AC JI Brook. Pap. Econ. Act. PY 1999 IS 2 BP 295 EP 372 PG 78 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 282WX UT WOS:000085245700006 ER PT S AU Phelan, C AF Phelan, C BE McCallum, BT Plosser, CI TI Anticipation effects of looming public-pension reforms - A comment SO CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY, VOL 50, JUNE 1999 SE CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy CY APR, 1998 CL UNIV ROCHESTER, ROCHESTER, NY SP Nat Sci Fdn HO UNIV ROCHESTER C1 Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. NR 0 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA SARA BURGERHARTSTRAAT 25, PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-2231 J9 CARN ROCH CONF SERIE PY 1999 VL 50 BP 161 EP 164 DI 10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00025-1 PG 4 WC Public Administration SC Public Administration GA BN62C UT WOS:000082361700006 ER PT S AU Goodfriend, M AF Goodfriend, M BE McCallum, BT Plosser, CI TI The role of a regional bank in a system of central banks SO CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY, VOL 51, DECEMBER 1999 SE CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy CY NOV 20-21, 1998 CL CARNEGIE MELLON UNIV, PITTSBURGH, PA HO CARNEGIE MELLON UNIV AB The paper assesses the role of a Reserve Bank in the Federal Reserve System. It compares the Eurosystem with the Fed System, and offers suggestions for the Eurosystem based on the Fed's experience. A regional presence facilitates surveillance of the economy and helps a central bank to communicate with the public. Competition among regional banks stimulates innovative thinking on operational, research, and policy questions. The Chairman (President) of the system should be strong enough to encourage diverse views in the monetary policy committee and to build a consensus for decisive and timely policy actions as needed. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Richmond, Richmond, VA 23261 USA. NR 13 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA SARA BURGERHARTSTRAAT 25, PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-2231 J9 CARN ROCH CONF SERIE PY 1999 VL 51 BP 51 EP 71 DI 10.1016/S0167-2231(00)00004-X PG 21 WC Business, Finance; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA BQ29B UT WOS:000087838400003 ER PT S AU Henderson, D AF Henderson, D BE McCallum, BT Plosser, CI TI Monetary policy issues for the Eurosystem - A comment SO CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY, VOL 51, DECEMBER 1999 SE CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy CY NOV 20-21, 1998 CL CARNEGIE MELLON UNIV, PITTSBURGH, PA HO CARNEGIE MELLON UNIV C1 Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC USA. NR 12 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA SARA BURGERHARTSTRAAT 25, PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-2231 J9 CARN ROCH CONF SERIE PY 1999 VL 51 BP 137 EP 148 DI 10.1016/S0167-2231(00)00007-5 PG 12 WC Business, Finance; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA BQ29B UT WOS:000087838400006 ER PT J AU Geweke, J Tanizaki, H AF Geweke, J Tanizaki, H TI On Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models SO COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-SIMULATION AND COMPUTATION LA English DT Article DE nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models; filtering; smoothing; Markov chain Monte Carlo; Gibbs sampling; Metropolis-Hastings algorithm ID TIME-SERIES; BAYESIAN-INFERENCE; POSTERIOR DISTRIBUTIONS; STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY; MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD; INTEGRATION; PREDICTION; ALGORITHM AB In this paper, a nonlinear and/or non-Gaussian smoother utilizing Markov chain Monte Carlo Methods is proposed, where the measurement and transition equations are specified in any general formulation and the error terms in the state-space model are not necessarily normal. The random draws are directly generated from the smoothing densities. For random number generation, the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the Gibbs sampling technique are utilized. The proposed procedure is very simple and easy for programming, compared with the existing nonlinear and non-Gaussian smoothing techniques. Moreover, taking several candidates of the proposal density function, we examine precision of the proposed estimator. C1 Univ Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Dept Econ, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. Kobe Univ, Fac Econ, Nada Ku, Kobe, Hyogo 6578501, Japan. NR 53 TC 17 Z9 17 U1 0 U2 3 PU MARCEL DEKKER INC PI NEW YORK PA 270 MADISON AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10016 USA SN 0361-0918 J9 COMMUN STAT-SIMUL C JI Commun. Stat.-Simul. Comput. PY 1999 VL 28 IS 4 BP 867 EP 894 DI 10.1080/03610919908813583 PG 28 WC Statistics & Probability SC Mathematics GA 254YC UT WOS:000083641000001 ER PT S AU Rhine, SLW Toussaint-Comeau, M AF Rhine, SLW Toussaint-Comeau, M BE Leech, IE TI The use of formal and informal financial markets among black households SO CONSUMER INTERESTS ANNUAL, VOL 45 SE PROCEEDINGS : ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAN COUNCIL ON CONSUMER INTERESTS LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 45th Annual Conference of the American-Council-on-Consumer-Interests CY MAR 24-27, 1999 CL CHICAGO, IL SP Amer Council Consumer Interests AB Employing unique household data, this article documents the use of banking services, the role of informal financial networks, and the patronage of alternative financial service businesses in Chatham, a predominantly Black community in the city of Chicago. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Chicago, IL USA. NR 12 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER COUNCIL COMSUMER INTERESTS PI COLUMBIA PA 240 STANLEY HALL, UNIV MISSOURI, COLUMBIA, MO 65211 USA SN 0275-1356 J9 P AM C CONS PY 1999 VL 45 BP 146 EP 151 PG 6 WC Business; Economics SC Business & Economics GA BN72F UT WOS:000082727400049 ER PT B AU Baxter, TC AF Baxter, TC BE Rider, B TI Breaking the billion dollar barrier: Learning the lessons of BNL, Daiwa, Barings and BCCI SO CORRUPTION: THE ENEMY WITHIN LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 14th International Symposium on Economic Crime CY SEP 08-13, 1996 CL UNIV CAMBRIDGE, JESUS COLL, CAMBRIDGE, ENGLAND HO UNIV CAMBRIDGE, JESUS COLL C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, Legal Grp, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU KLUWER LAW INTERNATIONAL PI THE HAGUE PA PO BOX 85889, 2508 CN THE HAGUE, NETHERLANDS BN 90-411-0712-6 PY 1999 BP 113 EP 129 PG 17 WC Criminology & Penology; Law SC Criminology & Penology; Government & Law GA BN83Q UT WOS:000083134600009 ER PT B AU Groshen, EL Schweitzer, ME AF Groshen, EL Schweitzer, ME BE Feldstein, M TI Identifying inflation's grease and sand effects in the labor market SO COSTS AND BENEFITS OF PRICE STABILITY SE NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH CONFERENCE REPORT LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT National-Bureau-of-Economic-Research Conference (NBER) CY FEB 20-21, 1997 CL FED RESERVE BANK, NEW YORK, NY SP Natl Bur Econ Res HO FED RESERVE BANK ID WAGE STICKINESS; UNEMPLOYMENT C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, Domest Res Funct, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 29 TC 18 Z9 18 U1 1 U2 1 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 1427 E 60 ST, CHICAGO, IL 60637 USA BN 0-226-24099-1 J9 NBER CONF R PY 1999 BP 273 EP 313 PG 41 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA BR40Y UT WOS:000166320400008 ER PT B AU Feldberg, CB AF Feldberg, CB GP IMF IMF TI Prudential supervision of banks and the Basle Core Principles SO CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS IN MONETARY AND FINANCIAL LAW, VOL 1 LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 6th IMF Seminar on Current Developments in Monetary and Financial Law CY 1998 CL WASHINGTON, D.C. SP Inst Int Monetary Fund C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, Bank Supervis Grp, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU INT MONETARY FUND PI WASHINGTON PA 700 19TH ST NW SUITE C-100, WASHINGTON, DC 20431 USA BN 1-55775-796-8 PY 1999 BP 167 EP 182 PG 16 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA BW15B UT WOS:000180993400016 ER PT B AU Hansen, J AF Hansen, J GP IMF IMF TI Government securities SO CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS IN MONETARY AND FINANCIAL LAW, VOL 1 LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 6th IMF Seminar on Current Developments in Monetary and Financial Law CY 1998 CL WASHINGTON, D.C. SP Inst Int Monetary Fund C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU INT MONETARY FUND PI WASHINGTON PA 700 19TH ST NW SUITE C-100, WASHINGTON, DC 20431 USA BN 1-55775-796-8 PY 1999 BP 229 EP 241 PG 13 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA BW15B UT WOS:000180993400020 ER PT B AU Hilton, S AF Hilton, S GP IMF IMF TI Organization of open market operations in the United States SO CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS IN MONETARY AND FINANCIAL LAW, VOL 1 LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 6th IMF Seminar on Current Developments in Monetary and Financial Law CY 1998 CL WASHINGTON, D.C. SP Inst Int Monetary Fund C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, Markets Grp, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU INT MONETARY FUND PI WASHINGTON PA 700 19TH ST NW SUITE C-100, WASHINGTON, DC 20431 USA BN 1-55775-796-8 PY 1999 BP 242 EP 259 PG 18 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA BW15B UT WOS:000180993400021 ER PT B AU Mattingly, JV Fallon, KJ AF Mattingly, JV Fallon, KJ GP IMF IMF TI Financial modernization SO CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS IN MONETARY AND FINANCIAL LAW, VOL 1 LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 6th IMF Seminar on Current Developments in Monetary and Financial Law CY 1998 CL WASHINGTON, D.C. SP Inst Int Monetary Fund C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Legal Div, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 3 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU INT MONETARY FUND PI WASHINGTON PA 700 19TH ST NW SUITE C-100, WASHINGTON, DC 20431 USA BN 1-55775-796-8 PY 1999 BP 343 EP 375 PG 33 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA BW15B UT WOS:000180993400034 ER PT B AU Cecchetti, S AF Cecchetti, S GP IMF IMF TI Accountability of the central bank for monetary policy SO CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS IN MONETARY AND FINANCIAL LAW, VOL 1 LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 6th IMF Seminar on Current Developments in Monetary and Financial Law CY 1998 CL WASHINGTON, D.C. SP Inst Int Monetary Fund C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU INT MONETARY FUND PI WASHINGTON PA 700 19TH ST NW SUITE C-100, WASHINGTON, DC 20431 USA BN 1-55775-796-8 PY 1999 BP 503 EP 514 PG 12 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA BW15B UT WOS:000180993400044 ER PT B AU O'Neil, K AF O'Neil, K GP IMF IMF TI Financial accountability of the Central Bank - Internal and external controls. SO CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS IN MONETARY AND FINANCIAL LAW, VOL 1 LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 6th IMF Seminar on Current Developments in Monetary and Financial Law CY 1998 CL WASHINGTON, D.C. SP Inst Int Monetary Fund C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, Management Comm, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU INT MONETARY FUND PI WASHINGTON PA 700 19TH ST NW SUITE C-100, WASHINGTON, DC 20431 USA BN 1-55775-796-8 PY 1999 BP 515 EP 527 PG 13 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA BW15B UT WOS:000180993400045 ER PT J AU Whelan, K AF Whelan, K TI Economic geography and the long-run effects of the Great Irish Famine SO ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL REVIEW LA English DT Article AB One of the most important debates in Irish economic history has concerned the long-run effects of the Great Irish Famine, with some arguing that it had only temporary effects on the economy and others seeing it as a major demographic and economic watershed. This paper adapts the theoretical framework of Krugman (1991) to illustrate how the combination of the Famine and developments in transportation and the demand for industrial products may have worked together to cause persistent depopulation and relative industrial decline. C1 Fed Reserve Board, Div Res & Stat, Washington, DC USA. RP Whelan, K (reprint author), Mail Stop 80,20th & C St, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 17 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 10 PU ECONOMIC SOCIAL RESEARCH INST PI DUBLIN PA 4 BURLINGTON ROAD, DUBLIN 4, IRELAND SN 0012-9984 J9 ECON SOC REV JI Econ. Soc. Rev. PD JAN PY 1999 VL 30 IS 1 BP 1 EP 20 PG 20 WC Economics; Sociology SC Business & Economics; Sociology GA 218CF UT WOS:000081535100001 ER PT B AU Humphrey, TM AF Humphrey, TM BE Loef, HE Monissen, HG TI Irving Fisher and Knut Wicksell: Different interpretations of the quantity theory? SO ECONOMICS OF IRVING FISHER: REVIEWING THE SCIENTIFIC WORK OF A GREAT ECONOMIST LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference of the Irving-Fisher-Gesellschaft CY MAY 22-24, 1997 CL KONIGSTEIN, GERMANY SP Irving Fisher Gesell C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Richmond, VA USA. NR 32 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 0 PU EDWARD ELGAR PUBLISHING LTD PI CHELTENHAM PA GLENSANDA HOUSE, MONTPELLIER PARADE, CHELTENHAM GL50 1UA, GLOS, ENGLAND BN 1-8406-4037-5 PY 1999 BP 59 EP 78 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA BP01C UT WOS:000083828300005 ER PT J AU Judson, RA Schmalensee, R Stoker, TM AF Judson, RA Schmalensee, R Stoker, TM TI Economic development and the structure of the demand for commercial energy SO ENERGY JOURNAL LA English DT Article AB To deepen understanding of the relation between economic development and energy demand, this study estimates the relations between per-capita GDP and per-capita energy consumption in major economic sectors. Panel data covering up to 123 nations are employed, and measurement problems are treated both in dataset construction and in estimation. Time and country fixed effects are assumed, and flexible forms for income effects are employed. There are substantial differences among sectors in the structure of country, time, and income effects. In particular, the household sector's share of aggregate energy consumption tends to fall with income, the share of transportation tends to rise, and the share of industry follows an inverse-U pattern. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. MIT, Sloan Sch Management, Cambridge, MA 02142 USA. RP Judson, RA (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. EM rschmal@mit.edu; tstoker@mit.edu NR 18 TC 32 Z9 34 U1 0 U2 3 PU INT ASSOC ENERGY ECONOMICS PI CLEVELAND PA 28790 CHAGRIN BLVD, STE 210, CLEVELAND, OH 44122 USA SN 0195-6574 J9 ENERGY J JI Energy J. PY 1999 VL 20 IS 2 BP 29 EP 57 PG 29 WC Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Studies SC Business & Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences & Ecology GA 185FE UT WOS:000079656800003 ER PT B AU Gruben, WC AF Gruben, WC BE Armijo, LE TI Mexico: The trajectory to the 1994 devaluation SO FINANCIAL GLOBALIZATION AND DEMOCRACY IN EMERGING MARKETS SE INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL ECONOMY SERIES LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Financial Globalization and Democracy in Emerging Markets CY NOV, 1995 CL BROWN UNIV, PROVIDENCE, RI SP Brown Univ, Watson Inst Int Studies HO BROWN UNIV ID EXCHANGE C1 Fed Reserve Bank Dallas, Ctr Latin Amer Econ, Dallas, TX USA. NR 30 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ST MARTINS PRESS INC PI NEW YORK PA SCHOLARLY AND REFERENCE BOOKS DIVISION, 175 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA BN 0-312-22014-6 J9 INT POL EC PY 1999 BP 117 EP 132 PG 16 WC Economics; International Relations; Political Science SC Business & Economics; International Relations; Government & Law GA BP08Y UT WOS:000084086600006 ER PT J AU Key, SJ AF Key, SJ TI Trade liberalization and prudential regulation: the international framework for financial services SO INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LA English DT Article ID CONTESTABILITY; MARKETS AB This article provides an overview of the issues involved in international efforts to open and restructure markets for financial sen ices and to ensure adequate regulation and supervision of financial firms. It discusses the liberalization in the General agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), the first global trade agreement to cover financial and other services, and the roles of various international fora in strengthening national regulatory and supervisory systems and enhancing cooperation and coordination between supervisors. The article emphasizes that measures to liberalize trade in financial services and measures to strengthen prudential regulation and supervision are complementary and mutually reinforcing. C1 Fed Reserve Board, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC USA. NYU, Stern Sch Business, New York, NY USA. Boston Univ, Sch Law, Morin Ctr Banking & Financial Law Studies, Boston, MA 02215 USA. RP Key, SJ (reprint author), Fed Reserve Board, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC USA. NR 21 TC 8 Z9 8 U1 0 U2 0 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD OX4 1JF, OXON, ENGLAND SN 0020-5850 J9 INT AFF JI Int. Aff. PD JAN PY 1999 VL 75 IS 1 BP 61 EP + DI 10.1111/1468-2346.00060 PG 16 WC International Relations SC International Relations GA 169FJ UT WOS:000078736600004 ER PT J AU Reinhart, CM Reinhart, VR AF Reinhart, CM Reinhart, VR TI On the use of reserve requirements in dealing with capital flow problems SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE capital inflows; intervention; reserve requirements ID INFLOWS AB In recent years, many developing countries have intervened in foreign exchange markets to offset to some extent the effect on their economies of large capital flows. Often changes in reserve requirements were used to mitigate the impact of that intervention on domestic money supplies. Because reserve requirements are a tax, however, changes in reserve requirements can have real effects. This paper shows that the exact implications for output, the real exchange rate and the capital and current accounts depend importantly on who-whether depositors or borrowers-pays the tax. In any case, foreign exchange intervention matched by changes in reserve requirements that keep the money supply fixed do influence the exchange rate in the short and, sometimes, the long run. The recent experiences of ten developing countries establish that, while the incidence of the tax varies considerably across countries and time, both deposit and lending rates of interest respond to changes in reserve requirements. (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20051 USA. Univ Maryland, Sch Publ Affairs, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. RP Reinhart, VR (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Mail Stop 72, Washington, DC 20051 USA. RI Reinhart, Carmen/B-6997-2008 NR 33 TC 28 Z9 28 U1 5 U2 7 PU JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD PI W SUSSEX PA BAFFINS LANE CHICHESTER, W SUSSEX PO19 1UD, ENGLAND SN 1076-9307 J9 INT J FINANC ECON JI Int. J. Financ. Econ. PD JAN PY 1999 VL 4 IS 1 BP 27 EP 54 DI 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1158(199901)4:1<27::AID-IJFE92>3.0.CO;2-T PG 28 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 200FX UT WOS:000080529900002 ER PT J AU Fergus, JT AF Fergus, JT TI Where, when, and by how much does abnormal weather affect housing construction? SO JOURNAL OF REAL ESTATE FINANCE AND ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE weather; housing starts; home construction; housing supply; construction cost ID UNSEASONABLE WEATHER; IMPACT AB This article investigates whether departures from normal in precipitation or temperature have a significant contemporaneous effect on housing starts in each month of the year, for the nation as a whole and in each of the four Census regions. It also evaluates the extent to which these immediate effects are reversed in later months. The results indicate that atypical weather has statistically significant effects on the change in housing starts that are concentrated in the months of the first quarter and that the magnitude of these effects is quire substantial. However, such effects also are found in some other months as well. Significant lagged effects are found that tend to offset the contemporaneous effects of weather deviations. C1 Fed Reserve Board, Div Res & Stat, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Fergus, JT (reprint author), Fed Reserve Board, Div Res & Stat, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 11 TC 9 Z9 9 U1 0 U2 0 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0895-5638 J9 J REAL ESTATE FINANC JI J. Real Estate Financ. Econ. PD JAN PY 1999 VL 18 IS 1 BP 63 EP 87 DI 10.1023/A:1007737429237 PG 25 WC Business, Finance; Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA 183QT UT WOS:000079565500005 ER PT B AU Gokhale, J Kotlikoff, LJ AF Gokhale, J Kotlikoff, LJ BE Rettenmaier, AJ Saving, TR TI Medicare from the perspective of generational accounting SO MEDICARE REFORM: ISSUES AND ANSWERS SE BUSH SCHOOL SERIES IN THE ECONOMICS OF PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 1998 Conference on Medicare Reform CY APR 03, 1998 CL AUSTIN, TX SP Texas A&M Univ, Private Enterprise Res Ctr, Texas A&M Univ, Bush Sch Govt & Publ Serv, Texas A&M Univ, Dept Econ C1 Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Res Dept, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. NR 7 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 2 U2 2 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 1427 E 60 ST, CHICAGO, IL 60637 USA BN 0-226-71013-0 J9 BUSH SCH S PUBL PY 1999 VL 1 BP 153 EP 173 PG 21 WC Health Policy & Services SC Health Care Sciences & Services GA BQ72T UT WOS:000089281700008 ER PT S AU Rudebusch, GD Svensson, LEO AF Rudebusch, GD Svensson, LEO BE Taylor, JB TI Policy rules for inflation targeting SO MONETARY POLICY RULES SE National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Monetary Policy Rules CY 1998 CL FL ID MONETARY-POLICY; RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS; INTEREST-RATES; OUTPUT; CRITIQUE C1 Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, San Francisco, CA USA. NR 80 TC 184 Z9 186 U1 2 U2 9 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 1427 E 60 ST, CHICAGO, IL 60637 USA SN 1557-3737 BN 0-226-79124-6 J9 NBER CONF R PY 1999 BP 203 EP 262 PG 60 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA BU93D UT WOS:000177424900006 ER PT B AU Estrella, A Mishkin, FS AF Estrella, A Mishkin, FS BE Taylor, JB TI Rethinking the role of NAIRU in monetary policy: Implications of model formulation and uncertainty SO MONETARY POLICY RULES SE NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH CONFERENCE REPORT LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Monetary Policy Rules CY 1998 CL FL C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, Res & Market Anal Grp, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 22 TC 21 Z9 22 U1 1 U2 2 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 1427 E 60 ST, CHICAGO, IL 60637 USA BN 0-226-79124-6 J9 NBER CONF R PY 1999 BP 405 EP 435 PG 31 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA BU93D UT WOS:000177424900010 ER PT S AU Cochrane, JH Bohn, H Woodford, M AF Cochrane, JH Bohn, H Woodford, M BE Bernanke, BS Rotemberg, JJ TI A frictionless view of US inflation SO NBER MACROECONOMICS ANNUAL 1998 SE NBER MACROECONOMICS ANNUAL LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT NBER Macroeconomics Annual Meeting CY APR 03-04, 1998 CL CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS SP Natl Bur Econ Res, Natl Sci Fdn ID STOCK-PRICES; MONETARY; ECONOMY; DEFICITS; SYSTEMS; POLICY; DEBT AB Financial innovation challenges the foundations of monetary theory, and standard monetary theory has not been very successful at describing the history of U.S. inflation. Motivated by these observations, I ask: Can we understand the history of U.S. inflation using a framework that ignores monetary frictions? The fiscal theory of the price level allows us to think about price-level determination with no monetary frictions. According to this approach, the price level adjusts to equilibrate the real value of nominal government debt with the present value of surpluses. I describe the theory, and I argue that it is a return to pre-quantity-theoretic ideas in which money is valued via a commodity standard or because the government accepts it to pay taxes. Both sources of value are immune to financial innovation and the presence or absence of monetary frictions. I then interpret the history of U.S. inflation with a fiscal-theory, frictionless view. I show how the fiscal theory can accommodate the stylized fact that deficits and inflation seem to be negatively, not positively correlated. I verify its prediction that open-market operations do not affect inflation. I show how debt policy has already smoothed inflation a great deal. C1 Univ Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Chicago, IL USA. NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. Princeton Univ, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. RP Cochrane, JH (reprint author), Univ Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. NR 59 TC 16 Z9 16 U1 2 U2 5 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0889-3365 BN 0-262-02455-1 J9 NBER MACROECON ANN PY 1999 VL 13 BP 323 EP + PG 98 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA BP27F UT WOS:000084541400006 ER PT J AU Kopcke, RW Kimball, RC AF Kopcke, RW Kimball, RC TI Inflation-indexed bonds: The dog that didn't bark SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB The introduction by the U.S. Treasury of inflation-indexed notes was one of the most widely publicized innovations in the U.S. capital markets in recent years. Since their introduction in January 1997, $57 billion in 5-, 10-, and 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) has been issued, and the Treasury has recently announced that TIPS will also be offered as small-denomination savings bonds. Because both the coupon and the principal of TIPS vary with the consumer price index, the Treasury believes these notes will appeal to risk-averse investors seeking protection from inflation. Proponents of TIPS have argued that their issuance should also reduce the cost of borrowing to the Treasury and permit a clear measure of investors' forecasts of inflation. Despite their promise, it is doubtful whether inflation-indexed bonds have been a great success either in the United States or in other industrialized countries that have issued them. The authors analyze the characteristics of TIPS that might explain their limited acceptance. Their model indicates that TIPS should appeal primarily to risk-investors in high tax brackets who are pessimistic concerning inflation. Despite their unique design, however, TIPS are not unique in offering investors inflation-protected returns. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Boston, MA USA. Babson Coll, FW Olin Grad Sch Business, Babson Pk, MA 02157 USA. RP Kopcke, RW (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Boston, MA USA. NR 13 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JAN-FEB PY 1999 BP 3 EP + PG 23 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 174VQ UT WOS:000079057200001 ER PT J AU Peek, J Rosengren, ES AF Peek, J Rosengren, ES TI Japanese banking problems: Implications for lending in the United States SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID CREDIT CRUNCH; SHOCKS; LOANS AB Fueled by a high saving rate, active exporting firms, and a booming stock market, Japanese banks expanded aggressively worldwide during the 1980s. By 1988, all of the 10 largest banks in the world were Japanese, with a significant presence in Southeast Asia, Europe, Latin America, and the United States. In the 1990s, however, the tide turned. Japanese banks experienced a significant diminution of capital as a result of sharp declines in the Japanese stock market and substantial increases in nonperforming loans. Increasingly constrained by international capital requirements, Japanese banks began to shrink their international operations while insulating their domestic lending operations. This article examines factors affecting the Japanese banking presence in the United States. in particular, the authors examine the role that capital requirements played in the decisions by Japanese banks to reduce their lending here. Because U.S. banking markets have been unusually open by international standards, and because of the large penetration by Japanese banks, the experience here provides useful insights into how globally active banks may react in the future to problems in their domestic markets. C1 Boston Coll, Chestnut Hill, MA 02167 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA USA. RP Peek, J (reprint author), Boston Coll, Chestnut Hill, MA 02167 USA. NR 28 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JAN-FEB PY 1999 BP 25 EP + PG 14 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 174VQ UT WOS:000079057200002 ER PT B AU Gruben, WC Welch, JH AF Gruben, WC Welch, JH BE Kaufman, GG TI Bending the paradigm - How Brazil got itself into a currency crisis and out SO RESEARCH IN FINANCIAL SERVICES: PRIVATE AND PUBLIC POLICY, VOL 11 - 1999: BANK PROBLEMS: A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE SE RESEARCH IN FINANCIAL SERVICES: PRIVATE AND PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 74th Annual Conference of the Western-Economic-Association-International CY JUL 08-10, 1999 CL SAN DIEGO, CA SP Western Econ Assoc Int C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Dallas, TX USA. NR 12 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU JAI PRESS INC PI STAMFORD PA 100 PROSPECT STREET, STAMFORD, CT 06901-1640 USA BN 0-7623-0588-6 J9 RES FIN SERV PY 1999 VL 11 BP 69 EP 89 PG 21 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA BP71V UT WOS:000085968600004 ER PT J AU Davis, DR AF Davis, DR TI The home market, trade, and industrial structure SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Does national market size matter for industrial structure? This has been suggested by theoretical work on "home market" effects. In the present paper, I show that what previously was regarded as an assumption of convenience-transport costs only for the differentiated goods-matters a great deal. In a focal case in which differentiated and homogeneous goads have identical transport costs, the home market effect disappears. This paper discusses available evidence on the relative trade costs for differentiated and homogeneous goods. No compelling argument is found that marker size will matter for industrial structure. (JEL F1, 01, R1). C1 Harvard Univ, Dept Econ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. RP Davis, DR (reprint author), Harvard Univ, Dept Econ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. NR 26 TC 95 Z9 96 U1 2 U2 5 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD DEC PY 1998 VL 88 IS 5 BP 1264 EP 1276 PG 13 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 151PD UT WOS:000077728700011 ER PT J AU Goodfriend, M McDermott, J AF Goodfriend, M McDermott, J TI Industrial development and the convergence question SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID INCREASING RETURNS; ENDOGENOUS GROWTH; LONG-RUN AB This paper studies endogenous world balanced-growth equilibria in which national learning productivity differentials govern relative per capita products. Learning productivities depend on the national share of world specialized-goods production, national and world scale, and familiarity with the foreign economy. Familiarity indexes the extent to which imported specialized goods enhance learning productivity. We find that mutual familiarization causes per capita products to converge. Unfamiliar economies diverge substantially and persistently. Unilateral familiarization of a less-developed country (LDC) with the leading economy causes the LDC to catch up to, and even overtake, the leader. (JEL F12, F43, N1, O11). C1 Fed Reserve Bank Richmond, Dept Res, Richmond, VA 23261 USA. Univ S Carolina, Dept Econ, Columbia, SC 29208 USA. RP Goodfriend, M (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Richmond, Dept Res, Richmond, VA 23261 USA. NR 28 TC 21 Z9 21 U1 0 U2 3 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD DEC PY 1998 VL 88 IS 5 BP 1277 EP 1289 PG 13 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 151PD UT WOS:000077728700012 ER PT J AU Kiser, EK AF Kiser, EK TI Heterogeneity in price sensitivity and retail price discrimination SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Annual Meeting of the American-Agricultural-Economics-Association CY AUG 02-05, 1998 CL SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH SP Amer Agr Econ Assoc C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Res & Stat, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Kiser, EK (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Res & Stat, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 3 TC 5 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 2 PU AMER AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS ASSOC PI AMES PA 415 SOUTH DUFF AVE, STE C, AMES, IA 50010-6600 USA SN 0002-9092 J9 AM J AGR ECON JI Am. J. Agr. Econ. PD DEC PY 1998 VL 80 IS 5 BP 1150 EP 1153 DI 10.2307/1244221 PG 4 WC Agricultural Economics & Policy; Economics SC Agriculture; Business & Economics GA 163CZ UT WOS:000078386300043 ER PT J AU Drabenstott, M Duncan, M Flora, C AF Drabenstott, M Duncan, M Flora, C TI Social or business capital? Finding a better path to rural economic development. SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Kansas City, MO 64108 USA. USDA, Econ Res Serv, Washington, DC 20250 USA. Iowa State Univ, Ames, IA 50011 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS ASSOC PI AMES PA 415 SOUTH DUFF AVE, STE C, AMES, IA 50010-6600 USA SN 0002-9092 J9 AM J AGR ECON JI Am. J. Agr. Econ. PD DEC PY 1998 VL 80 IS 5 BP 1158 EP 1158 PG 1 WC Agricultural Economics & Policy; Economics SC Agriculture; Business & Economics GA 163CZ UT WOS:000078386300058 ER PT J AU Lamb, R AF Lamb, R TI Inverse productivity: Land quality, labor markets, and risk. SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Kansas City, MO 64198 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS ASSOC PI AMES PA 415 SOUTH DUFF AVE, STE C, AMES, IA 50010-6600 USA SN 0002-9092 J9 AM J AGR ECON JI Am. J. Agr. Econ. PD DEC PY 1998 VL 80 IS 5 BP 1191 EP 1192 PG 2 WC Agricultural Economics & Policy; Economics SC Agriculture; Business & Economics GA 163CZ UT WOS:000078386300321 ER PT J AU Singer, M AF Singer, M TI The determinants of state food manufacturing growth: 1982-92. SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Chicago, IL USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS ASSOC PI AMES PA 415 SOUTH DUFF AVE, STE C, AMES, IA 50010-6600 USA SN 0002-9092 J9 AM J AGR ECON JI Am. J. Agr. Econ. PD DEC PY 1998 VL 80 IS 5 BP 1202 EP 1202 PG 1 WC Agricultural Economics & Policy; Economics SC Agriculture; Business & Economics GA 163CZ UT WOS:000078386300412 ER PT J AU Henderson, J Lamb, RL AF Henderson, J Lamb, RL TI The impact of the 1996 farm bill on farmland values. SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Kansas City, MO USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS ASSOC PI AMES PA 415 SOUTH DUFF AVE, STE C, AMES, IA 50010-6600 USA SN 0002-9092 J9 AM J AGR ECON JI Am. J. Agr. Econ. PD DEC PY 1998 VL 80 IS 5 BP 1209 EP 1209 PG 1 WC Agricultural Economics & Policy; Economics SC Agriculture; Business & Economics GA 163CZ UT WOS:000078386300476 ER PT J AU McQuerry, E AF McQuerry, E TI Desenvolvimento: Politics and economy in Brazil. SO AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENCE REVIEW LA English DT Book Review C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. RP McQuerry, E (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER POLITICAL SCIENCE ASSOC PI WASHINGTON PA 1527 NEW HAMPSHIRE N W, WASHINGTON, DC 20036 USA SN 0003-0554 J9 AM POLIT SCI REV JI Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. PD DEC PY 1998 VL 92 IS 4 BP 954 EP 955 DI 10.2307/2586343 PG 2 WC Political Science SC Government & Law GA 145QZ UT WOS:000077384000042 ER PT J AU De Long, JB AF De Long, JB TI It doesn't work SO CRITICAL REVIEW LA English DT Article ID BUSINESS-CYCLE; REAL WAGES; MICRO DATA AB Vedder and Gallaway are mistaken in their attempted demonstration that government policies to raise veal wages have been the source of most or all US. unemployment in the twentieth century. Their case depends on a presumed correlation between high unemployment and high veal wages that has not existed since World War II, and on a naive confusion between correlation and causation:just because veal wages and unemployment were both relatively high during the Great Depression does not mean that high veal wages were the cause of high unemployment. More likely, the reverse is true. The ascription of high unemployment to higher-than-equilibrium real wages is Mot always in error. But there is no reason whatsoever to believe Vedder and Gallaway's claim that the government's policies to raise wages have been "the major cause of high unemployment in the United States. " C1 Univ Calif Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. RP De Long, JB (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA. NR 13 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 0 PU CRITICAL REVIEW FOUNDATION PI NEWTOWN PA PO BOX 10, DEPT 137, NEWTOWN, CT 06470 USA SN 0891-3811 J9 CRIT REV JI Crit. Rev. PD WIN-SPR PY 1998 VL 12 IS 1-2 BP 59 EP 69 PG 11 WC Political Science SC Government & Law GA 159EE UT WOS:000078158200005 ER PT J AU Wheelock, DC AF Wheelock, DC TI Competition and monopoly in the federal reserve system, 1914-1951: A microeconomics approach to monetary history. SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY LA English DT Book Review C1 Fed Reserve Bank, St Louis, MO 63102 USA. RP Wheelock, DC (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, St Louis, MO 63102 USA. RI Wheelock, David/I-5757-2016 OI Wheelock, David/0000-0002-2702-8164 NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 1 U2 1 PU CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS PI NEW YORK PA 40 WEST 20TH STREET, NEW YORK, NY 10011-4211 USA SN 0022-0507 J9 J ECON HIST JI J. Econ. Hist. PD DEC PY 1998 VL 58 IS 4 BP 1168 EP 1170 PG 3 WC Economics; History; History Of Social Sciences SC Business & Economics; History; Social Sciences - Other Topics GA 151DK UT WOS:000077705300045 ER PT J AU Triest, RK AF Triest, RK TI Has poverty gotten worse? SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Article ID HOUSEHOLD EQUIVALENCE SCALES C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Triest, RK (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. EM Robert.Triest@Bos.FRB.org NR 31 TC 17 Z9 17 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0895-3309 J9 J ECON PERSPECT JI J. Econ. Perspect. PD WIN PY 1998 VL 12 IS 1 BP 97 EP 114 PG 18 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZB558 UT WOS:000072484600008 ER PT J AU Chari, VV AF Chari, VV TI Nobel Laureate Robert E. Lucas, Jr.: Architect of modern macroeconomics SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Article ID EXPECTATIONS; TIME C1 Univ Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. RP Chari, VV (reprint author), Univ Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. NR 23 TC 5 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 2 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0895-3309 J9 J ECON PERSPECT JI J. Econ. Perspect. PD WIN PY 1998 VL 12 IS 1 BP 171 EP 186 PG 16 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZB558 UT WOS:000072484600012 ER PT J AU Wilcox, DW AF Wilcox, DW TI The introduction of indexed government debt in the United States SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Article C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Wilcox, DW (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 8 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0895-3309 J9 J ECON PERSPECT JI J. Econ. Perspect. PD WIN PY 1998 VL 12 IS 1 BP 219 EP 227 PG 9 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZB558 UT WOS:000072484600016 ER PT J AU Hannan, TH Prager, RA AF Hannan, TH Prager, RA TI The relaxation of entry barriers in the banking industry: An empirical investigation SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Article AB Until recently, state laws restricted entry into local banking markets in many states by limiting both branching and multibank holding company (MBHC) operations. To the extent that these laws impeded entry into local banking markets, the removal or relaxation of the restrictions should have reduced barriers to entry, leading to more competitive price levels in the affected markets. This paper tests for such effects by examining the changes in deposit interest rates offered by banks operating in markets affected by liberalization of state banking law relative to the changes in deposit interest rates offered during the same time period by banks operating in markets not affected by such liberalization. We rnd evidence that liberalization of state laws restricting intrastate MBHC operations, interstate branches, and interstate MBHC operations caused deposit interest rates to become more competitive. We, however, rnd no evidence of such effects associated with the removal of restrictions on intrastate branching. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Hannan, TH (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 9 TC 11 Z9 11 U1 0 U2 0 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD DEC PY 1998 VL 14 IS 3 BP 171 EP 188 DI 10.1023/A:1008025112789 PG 18 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 204BM UT WOS:000080743100001 ER PT J AU Prager, RA Hannan, TH AF Prager, RA Hannan, TH TI Do substantial horizontal mergers generate significant price effects? Evidence from the banking industry SO JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID MARKET POWER AB This study examines the price effects of recent US bank mergers that substantially increased local market concentration. Using the deposit interest rates that banks offer their customers as our price measure, we find that, over the 1991-94 time period, deposit rates offered by participants in substantial horizontal mergers and their local market rivals declined by a greater percentage than did deposit rates offered by banks not operating in markets in which such mergers took place. We interpret our results as evidence that these mergers led to increased market power. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Prager, RA (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 15 TC 80 Z9 80 U1 1 U2 4 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD OX4 1JF, OXON, ENGLAND SN 0022-1821 J9 J IND ECON JI J. Indust. Econ. PD DEC PY 1998 VL 46 IS 4 BP 433 EP 452 DI 10.1111/1467-6451.00082 PG 20 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 141AZ UT WOS:000077121600002 ER PT J AU Fernandez-Arias, E Spiegel, MM AF Fernandez-Arias, E Spiegel, MM TI North-South customs unions and international capital mobility SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE customs union; sovereign risk; financial integration ID SOVEREIGN DEBT AB We examine the implications of a North-South trade accord where investments in the Southern partner nation exhibit country risk. Our analysis demonstrates that North-South trade accords can serve as credibility-enhancing mechanisms that induce additional foreign capital inflows into Southern partner nations. We also demonstrate that the presence of sovereign risk changes the trade-offs between trade creation and diversion, enhancing the potential for regional trade accords to increase the welfare of accord members. However, sovereign risk also introduces a novel channel through which non-partner Southern nations can have their welfare reduced by regional trade accords. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Dept Econ Res, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA. Inter Amer Dev Bank, Washington, DC 20577 USA. RP Spiegel, MM (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Dept Econ Res, Stop 1130,101 Market St, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA. NR 17 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD DEC PY 1998 VL 46 IS 2 BP 229 EP 251 DI 10.1016/S0022-1996(97)00051-2 PG 23 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 153VU UT WOS:000077854400003 ER PT J AU Harrigan, J AF Harrigan, J TI US imports, 1972-1994: Data and concordances SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Software Review C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, Int Res Dept, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Harrigan, J (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, Int Res Dept, 33 Liberty St, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD DEC PY 1998 VL 46 IS 2 BP 363 EP 365 PG 3 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 153VU UT WOS:000077854400012 ER PT J AU Harrigan, J AF Harrigan, J TI Review of NBER trade data on CD-ROM SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Software Review C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, Int Res Dept, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Harrigan, J (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, Int Res Dept, 33 Liberty St, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD DEC PY 1998 VL 46 IS 2 BP 363 EP 365 PG 3 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 153VU UT WOS:000077854400008 ER PT J AU Harrigan, J AF Harrigan, J TI US Exports, 1972-1994: with state exports and other US data SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Software Review C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, Int Res Dept, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Harrigan, J (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, Int Res Dept, 33 Liberty St, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD DEC PY 1998 VL 46 IS 2 BP 363 EP 365 PG 3 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 153VU UT WOS:000077854400010 ER PT J AU Harrigan, J AF Harrigan, J TI World trade flows, 1970-1992, with production and tariff data SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Software Review C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, Int Res Dept, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Harrigan, J (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, Int Res Dept, 33 Liberty St, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD DEC PY 1998 VL 46 IS 2 BP 363 EP 365 PG 3 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 153VU UT WOS:000077854400009 ER PT J AU Kiley, MT AF Kiley, MT TI Predicting tax rate changes: Insights from the permanent income hypothesis SO JOURNAL OF MACROECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID UNITED-STATES; OPTIMAL TAXATION; SOCIAL-SECURITY; CONSUMPTION; DEBT; TIME AB A large literature demonstrates that changes in aggregate tax rates are basically unpredictable. These previous results typically assume that the alternative to a random walk in tax rates is either serially correlated tax rate changes, or tax rate changes closely tied to lagged government spending. We show that the permanent income hypothesis implies that consumption movements should predict income tax changes if the changes are anticipated, regardless of the reason for the anticipated change. The evidence for a range of countries supports this implication, thus demonstrating that the random walk characterization of aggregate tax rates found previously sterns entirely from the limited set of alternative hypotheses considered. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Kiley, MT (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RI Kiley, Michael/H-1132-2012; OI Kiley, Michael/0000-0003-0427-0131 NR 21 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 1 U2 2 PU LOUISIANA STATE UNIV PR PI BATON ROUGE PA BATON ROUGE, LA 70893 USA SN 0164-0704 J9 J MACROECON JI J. Macroecon. PD WIN PY 1998 VL 20 IS 1 BP 153 EP 167 DI 10.1016/S0164-0704(98)00051-2 PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YX157 UT WOS:000072012100007 ER PT J AU Kennedy, JE AF Kennedy, JE TI An analysis of time-series estimates of capacity utilization SO JOURNAL OF MACROECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR; BUSINESS-CYCLE; PRICES AB The Federal Reserve's capacity utilization series constitute an important indicator of resource utilization. Because capacity is difficult to measure, this paper considers time-series alternatives. All that is needed to estimate the permanent component is an IP index. The time-series measures have the advantage of being consistently measured over time and easily reproducible. The FRB series are evaluated relative to the alternatives in terms of their ability to explain and predict inflation. The alternatives generally perform as well or better than the FRB series in these tests. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Kennedy, JE (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 32 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 3 PU LOUISIANA STATE UNIV PR PI BATON ROUGE PA BATON ROUGE, LA 70893 USA SN 0164-0704 J9 J MACROECON JI J. Macroecon. PD WIN PY 1998 VL 20 IS 1 BP 169 EP 187 DI 10.1016/S0164-0704(98)00052-4 PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YX157 UT WOS:000072012100008 ER PT J AU Aiyagari, SR McGrattan, ER AF Aiyagari, SR McGrattan, ER TI The optimum quantity of debt SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE government debt; precautionary saving; borrowing constraints ID LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS; GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM; EFFICIENT TAXATION; GOVERNMENT DEBT; PUBLIC DEBT; INSURANCE; MONEY; MODEL; COST AB We find that the welfare gains to being at the optimum quantity of debt rather than the current US level are small, and, therefore, concerns regarding the high level of debt in the US economy may be misplaced. This finding is based on a model of a large number of infinitely lived households whose saving behavior is influenced by precautionary saving motives and borrowing constraints. This model incorporates a different role for government debt than is found in standard models, and it captures different cost-benefit trade-offs. On the benefit side, government debt enhances the liquidity off households by providing an additional means of smoothing consumption and by effectively loosening borrowing constraints. On the cost side, the implied taxes have adverse wealth distribution and incentive effects. In addition, government debt crowds out capital via higher interest rates and lowers per capita consumption. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Res Dept, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. Univ Rochester, Dept Econ, Rochester, NY 14627 USA. RP McGrattan, ER (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Res Dept, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. EM erm@ellen.mpls.frb.fed.us NR 25 TC 60 Z9 60 U1 2 U2 8 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD DEC PY 1998 VL 42 IS 3 BP 447 EP 469 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(98)00031-2 PG 23 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 139FN UT WOS:000077017400001 ER PT J AU Triest, RK AF Triest, RK TI Econometric issues in estimating the behavioral response to taxation: A nontechnical introduction SO NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL LA English DT Article ID TAX-REFORM ACT; BUDGET CONSTRAINTS; FEMALE HEADSHIP; INCOME; INSTRUMENTS; PANEL; WEAK AB Reliable estimates of how tax incentives affect behavior are an essential input into the formation of tax policy. However, one encounters a number of difficult econometric problems in estimating the magnitude of the behavioral effects. This paper provides a nontechnical introduction to some of the more prominent problems, particularly the endogeneity of marginal tax rates and the problem of identifying tax effects, and discusses two estimation techniques used in recent studies: difference-in-differences and instrumental variables using panel data. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Dept Res, Boston, MA 02106 USA. RP Triest, RK (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Dept Res, Boston, MA 02106 USA. NR 26 TC 15 Z9 15 U1 1 U2 5 PU NATL TAX ASSN PI COLUMBUS PA 5310 EAST MAIN ST, COLUMBUS, OH 43213 USA SN 0028-0283 J9 NATL TAX J JI Natl. Tax J. PD DEC PY 1998 VL 51 IS 4 BP 761 EP 772 PG 12 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 151NH UT WOS:000077726300006 ER PT J AU Tannenwald, R AF Tannenwald, R TI Implications of the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 for the "devolution revolutions" SO PUBLIUS-THE JOURNAL OF FEDERALISM LA English DT Article AB From an economist's perspective, the fiscal and administrative goals of the so-called "devolution revolution" include less federal intergovernmental aid, especially if fiscally equalizing; the substitution of block grants for matching grants; greater administrative flexibility for the states; and fewer underfunded mandates. This article uses these devolutionary yardsticks to analyze the major provisions of the federal Balanced Budget Act of 1997. These provisions fall far short of a "devolution revolution." The act increases the level of federal assistance, leaves Medicaid as an open-ended entitlement, and preserves a strong role for the federal government in shaping intergovernmental grants. The article discusses the political forces moderating the act's devolutionary impact. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Boston, MA 02106 USA. RP Tannenwald, R (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Boston, MA 02106 USA. NR 57 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 1 PU PUBLIUS-JNL OF FEDERALISM PI EASTON PA MEYNER CTR STATE/LOCAL GOVT 16 KIRBY HALL CIV RIGHTS LAFAYETTE COLLEGE, EASTON, PA 18042-1785 USA SN 0048-5950 J9 PUBLIUS J FEDERALISM JI Publius-J. Fed. PD WIN PY 1998 VL 28 IS 1 BP 23 EP 48 PG 26 WC Political Science SC Government & Law GA 145GN UT WOS:000077362800002 ER PT J AU Khan, CM Roberds, W AF Khan, CM Roberds, W TI Payment system settlement and bank incentives SO REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES LA English DT Article AB In this article, we consider the relative merits of net versus gross settlement of interbank payments, Net settlement economizes on the costs of holding non-interest-bearing reserves, but increases moral hazard problems. The "put option" value of default under net settlement can also distort banks' investment incentives. Absent these distortions, net settlement dominates gross, although the optimal net settlement scheme may involve a positive probability of default. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. Univ Illinois, Chicago, IL 60680 USA. RP Roberds, W (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, 104 Marietta St NW, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. EM william.roberds@atl.frb.org NR 34 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 2 PU OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC PI CARY PA JOURNALS DEPT, 2001 EVANS RD, CARY, NC 27513 USA SN 0893-9454 EI 1465-7368 J9 REV FINANC STUD JI Rev. Financ. Stud. PD WIN PY 1998 VL 11 IS 4 BP 845 EP 870 DI 10.1093/rfs/11.4.845 PG 26 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 144GD UT WOS:000077304900007 ER PT J AU Ackert, LF Church, BK AF Ackert, LF Church, BK TI Information dissemination and the distribution of wealth: Evidence from experimental asset markets SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION LA English DT Article DE asset markets; information dissemination; wealth distribution ID RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS; SECURITY MARKETS; EFFICIENCY; AGGREGATION AB We conduct 24 experimental asset markets to investigate the effects of differentially informed and experienced agents on information dissemination and the distribution of wealth. In our markets private information is incomplete in that it reduces, but does not eliminate, slate uncertainty. Private information is not fully disseminated, even in markets with experienced traders. Informed agents exploit their informational advantage and earn greater profit than uninformed agents, but only in markets with inexperienced traders. Lastly, uninformed agents earn greater profit when some agents are informed, but only in markets with experienced traders. Overall, uninformed agents benefit from design-specific trading experience. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Dept Res, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. Georgia Inst Technol, DuPree Sch Management, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA. RP Ackert, LF (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Dept Res, 104 Marietta St NW, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. NR 11 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-2681 J9 J ECON BEHAV ORGAN JI J. Econ. Behav. Organ. PD NOV 30 PY 1998 VL 37 IS 3 BP 357 EP 371 DI 10.1016/S0167-2681(98)00088-2 PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 139GN UT WOS:000077019800008 ER PT J AU Boyd, JH Smith, BD AF Boyd, JH Smith, BD TI The evolution of debt and equity markets in economic development SO ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article DE finance; growth; development ID FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION; ENDOGENOUS GROWTH; CONTRACTS; COSTS; STOCK AB As noted by Gurley and Shaw, there is a typical pattern of economic development in which the evolution of the financial system is an essential aspect of the growth process. We focus on one component of this evolution: the increasing importance of equity markets as an economy grows. We develop a growth model where capital accumulation is financed externally through a combination of debt and equity. We illustrate why equity market activity might grow - often very rapidly - as an economy develops. We also illustrate why access to equity markets may not be needed in the early stages of economic development. C1 Univ Texas, Dept Econ, Austin, TX 78712 USA. Univ Minnesota, Dept Finance, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Dept Res, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. RP Smith, BD (reprint author), Univ Texas, Dept Econ, Austin, TX 78712 USA. NR 32 TC 65 Z9 66 U1 4 U2 6 PU SPRINGER VERLAG PI NEW YORK PA 175 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0938-2259 J9 ECON THEOR JI Econ. Theory PD NOV PY 1998 VL 12 IS 3 BP 519 EP 560 DI 10.1007/s001990050234 PG 42 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 134MP UT WOS:000076747100004 ER PT J AU Haubrich, JG Popova, I AF Haubrich, JG Popova, I TI Executive compensation: a calibration approach SO ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article DE calibration; executive compensation; principal-agent ID PRINCIPAL-AGENT PROBLEM; PERFORMANCE PAY; INCENTIVES; CONTRACTS AB We use a version of the Grossman and Hart principal-agent model with 10 actions and 10 states to produce quantitative predictions for executive compensation. Performance incentives derived from the model are compared with the performance incentives of 350 firms chosen from a survey by Michael Jensen and Kevin Murphy. The results suggest both that the model does a reasonable job of explaining the data and that actual incentives are close to the optimal incentives predicted by theory. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Dept Res, Cleveland, OH 44101 USA. Purdue Univ, Krannert Grad Sch Management, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA. RP Haubrich, JG (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Dept Res, Cleveland, OH 44101 USA. NR 22 TC 7 Z9 8 U1 1 U2 4 PU SPRINGER VERLAG PI NEW YORK PA 175 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0938-2259 J9 ECON THEOR JI Econ. Theory PD NOV PY 1998 VL 12 IS 3 BP 561 EP 581 DI 10.1007/s001990050235 PG 21 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 134MP UT WOS:000076747100005 ER PT J AU Carlstrom, CT Fuerst, TS AF Carlstrom, CT Fuerst, TS TI Agency costs and business cycles SO ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article DE business fluctuations; cycles; financial markets and the macroeconomy ID DEBT CONTRACTS; MONETARY AB This paper develops a model with endogenous agency costs that is otherwise quite similar to the canonical real business cycle model. The traditional assumption in the literature is that these agency costs arise in the production of investment goods. In contrast, this paper assumes that these costs are all encompassing in the sense that they arise in the production of aggregate output. The paper explores both the importance of the investment vs. output assumption for business cycle dynamics, and the conditions under which these agency models can deliver amplification and/or persistence. The paper has two principal conclusions. First, in terms of amplification and propagation, the output model performs worse than does the investment model. This arises because a variable distortion in the investment market has more of an impact than a comparable distortion in the output market. Second, in this model with optimal consumption choice by entrepreneurs, there is a clear tension between amplification and persistence. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Cleveland, OH 44101 USA. Bowling Green State Univ, Bowling Green, OH 43403 USA. RP Fuerst, TS (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Cleveland, OH 44101 USA. NR 12 TC 20 Z9 20 U1 0 U2 4 PU SPRINGER VERLAG PI NEW YORK PA 175 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0938-2259 J9 ECON THEOR JI Econ. Theory PD NOV PY 1998 VL 12 IS 3 BP 583 EP 597 DI 10.1007/s001990050236 PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 134MP UT WOS:000076747100006 ER PT J AU Rudebusch, GD AF Rudebusch, GD TI Do measures of monetary policy in a VAR make sense? SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID FUNDS; TRANSMISSION AB No. In many vector autoregressions (VARs), monetary policy shocks are identified with the least squares residuals from a regression of the federal funds rate on an assortment of variables. Such regressions appear to be structurally fragile and are at odds with other evidence on the nature of the U.S. Federal Reserve's reaction function; furthermore, the residuals from these regressions show little correlation across various VARs or with funds rate shocks that are derived from forward-looking financial markets. My results provide a sharp critique of current monetary VARs. C1 Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA. RP Rudebusch, GD (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA. EM glenn.rudebusch@sf.frb.org NR 43 TC 149 Z9 149 U1 1 U2 2 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 USA SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD NOV PY 1998 VL 39 IS 4 BP 907 EP 931 DI 10.2307/2527344 PG 25 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 139YZ UT WOS:000077060000006 ER PT J AU Rudebusch, GD AF Rudebusch, GD TI Do measures of monetary policy in a VAR make sense? A reply to Christopher A. Sims SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Editorial Material ID FUNDS C1 Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA. RP Rudebusch, GD (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA. NR 8 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 0 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 USA SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD NOV PY 1998 VL 39 IS 4 BP 943 EP 948 DI 10.2307/2527346 PG 6 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 139YZ UT WOS:000077060000008 ER PT J AU Sims, CA Zha, T AF Sims, CA Zha, T TI Bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID MONETARY-POLICY AB If dynamic multivariate models are to be used to guide decision-making, it is important that probability assessments of forecasts or policy projections be provided. When identified Bayesian vector autoregression (VAR) models are presented with error bands in the existing literature, both conceptual and numerical problems have not been dealt with in an internally consistent way. In this paper we develop methods to introduce prior information in both reduced form and structural VAR models without introducing substantial new computational burdens. Our approach makes it feasible to use a single, large dynamic framework (for example, 20-variable models) for tasks of policy projections. C1 Yale Univ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. RP Sims, CA (reprint author), Yale Univ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA. EM sims@econ.yale.edu; tzha@mindspring.com NR 14 TC 167 Z9 172 U1 2 U2 10 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI MALDEN PA COMMERCE PLACE, 350 MAIN ST, MALDEN 02148, MA USA SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD NOV PY 1998 VL 39 IS 4 BP 949 EP 968 DI 10.2307/2527347 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 139YZ UT WOS:000077060000009 ER PT J AU King, RG Watson, MW AF King, RG Watson, MW TI The solution of singular linear difference systems under rational expectations SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Many linear rational expectations macroeconomic models can be cast in the first-order form, AE(t)y(t+1) = By(t) + CE(t)x(t), if the matrix A is permitted to be singular. We show that there is a unique stable solution under two requirements: (i) the determinantal polynomial \Az-B\ is not zero for some value of z, and (ii) a rank condition. The unique solution is characterized using a familiar approach: a canonical variables transformation separating dynamics associated with stable and unstable eigenvalues. In singular models, however, there are new canonical variables associated with infinite eigenvalues. These arise from nonexpectational behavioral relations or dynamic identities present in the singular linear difference system. C1 Univ Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Richmond, Richmond, VA 23219 USA. Princeton Univ, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. RP King, RG (reprint author), Univ Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA. NR 13 TC 68 Z9 69 U1 1 U2 1 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 USA SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD NOV PY 1998 VL 39 IS 4 BP 1015 EP 1026 DI 10.2307/2527350 PG 12 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 139YZ UT WOS:000077060000012 ER PT J AU Berger, AN Saunders, A Scalise, JM Udell, GF AF Berger, AN Saunders, A Scalise, JM Udell, GF TI The effects of bank mergers and acquisitions on small business lending SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE bank; mergers; small business ID DIVERSIFICATION; CREDIT AB We examine the effects of bank M&As on small business lending using data on over 6000 recent U,S. bank M&As. We are the first to decompose the impact of M&As into the static effects from simply melding the antecedent institutions and the dynamic effects associated with post-M&A refocusing of the consolidated institution. We are also the first to estimate the dynamic reactions of other local banks. We find that the static effects of consolidation reduce small business lending, but are mostly offset by the reactions of other banks, and in some cases also by refocusing efforts of the consolidating institutions themselves. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Wharton Financial Inst Ctr, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. NYU, Stern Sch Business, New York, NY 10012 USA. Univ Penn, Wharton Sch Business, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. Indiana Univ, Kelley Sch Business, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. RP Berger, AN (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 47 TC 173 Z9 175 U1 3 U2 31 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA PI LAUSANNE PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND SN 0304-405X J9 J FINANC ECON JI J. Financ. Econ. PD NOV PY 1998 VL 50 IS 2 BP 187 EP 229 DI 10.1016/S0304-405X(98)00036-1 PG 43 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 141BE UT WOS:000077122100003 ER PT J AU Furfine, CH Stehm, J AF Furfine, CH Stehm, J TI Analyzing alternative intraday credit policies in real-time gross settlement systems SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article AB This paper examines a central bank's choice of intraday credit policy for real-time gross settlement (RTGs) systems. Formal analysis of central bank objectives and commercial bank payment activity provides insight into both the choice and effects of several possible intraday credit policies. Observed intraday credit policies are interpreted within the context of the model. Among G-10 central banks, different combinations of prices, collateral, and quantity limits have been chosen to manage the supply of intraday credit. Conditions that rationalize these choices are shown to rely on (a) central bank preferences regarding credit risk and systemic risk, (b) liquidity management technologies, and (c) the cost of collateral. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Reserve Bank Operat & Payment Syst, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 31 TC 11 Z9 11 U1 1 U2 3 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1998 VL 30 IS 4 BP 832 EP 848 DI 10.2307/2601131 PG 17 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 134JW UT WOS:000076740700009 ER PT J AU Cronovich, R Gazel, R AF Cronovich, R Gazel, R TI Do exchange rates and foreign incomes matter for exports at the state level? SO JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE LA English DT Article ID TRADE; PERFORMANCE; GROWTH AB At the national level, trade-weighted real exchange rates and foreign incomes significantly impact exports. At the subnational level, these variables are generally insignificant in the few studies that include them. We argue that the standard use of national trade weights in the construction of subnational trade-weighted averages of exchange rates and foreign incomes is inappropriate, and we then construct these variables using state-specific trade weights. In our panel data analysis of state-level manufacturing exports, these variables enter significantly and with the expected signs. Also, their out-of-sample forecasting ability is significantly better than that of the national trade-weighted variables. C1 Univ Nevada, Dept Econ, Las Vegas, NV 89154 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, Kansas City, MO 64198 USA. RP Cronovich, R (reprint author), Univ Nevada, Dept Econ, Las Vegas, NV 89154 USA. NR 30 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 1 U2 3 PU BLACKWELL PUBLISHERS PI MALDEN PA 350 MAIN STREET, STE 6, MALDEN, MA 02148 USA SN 0022-4146 J9 J REGIONAL SCI JI J. Reg. Sci. PD NOV PY 1998 VL 38 IS 4 BP 639 EP 657 DI 10.1111/0022-4146.00114 PG 19 WC Economics; Environmental Studies; Planning & Development SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Public Administration GA 138RH UT WOS:000076986000005 ER PT J AU Fuhrer, JC Schuh, S AF Fuhrer, JC Schuh, S TI Beyond shocks: What causes business cycles? An overview SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB What makes economies rise and fall? What caused the Asian crisis, the recessions of the 1970s and 1980s, and even the Great Depression? According to many modern macroeconomists, shocks did. This unsatisfying answer lies at the heart of a currently popular framework for analyzing business cycle fluctuations. This framework assumes that the macroeconomy usually obeys simple behavioral relationships but is occasionally disrupted by large "shocks," which force it temporarily away from these relationships and into recession. The behavioral relationships then guide the orderly recovery of the economy back to full employment, where the economy remains until another significant shock upsets it. Attributing fluctuations to shocks-movements in important economic variables that occur for reasons we do not understand-means we can never fully understand why they occur. As a result, it will always be difficult to predict recessions and to know what government policies would best avert or ameliorate them. Thus, the forty-second economic conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston had as one of its key goals the identification of economic causes of business cycles. The greater the proportion of fluctuations we can classify as the observable and explainable product of purposeful economic decisions, the better chance we have of understanding, predicting, and avoiding recessions. Most participants at the conference concluded that the business cycle is not dead but is likely here to stay Consequently, most also agreed that policymakers must learn to recognize and address the economy's vulnerability to disruptions and support research into the contribution of actions of economic agents to economic fluctuations. This article reviews the presentations at the conference and the themes that developed from the discussions. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Boston, MA 02106 USA. RP Fuhrer, JC (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Boston, MA 02106 USA. RI Fuhrer, Jeff/F-8852-2013 NR 0 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 3 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD NOV-DEC PY 1998 BP 3 EP + PG 22 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 158VZ UT WOS:000078139300001 ER PT J AU Kodrzycki, YK AF Kodrzycki, YK TI The effects of employer-provided severance benefits on reemployment outcomes SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID DISPLACED WORKERS; UNEMPLOYMENT AB Surveys have shown that many employers offer severance packages to their laid-off workers and that severance pay provides substantial income for many people displaced from long-time jobs. Yet little, if anything, is known about the effects-of severance pay. Does it lead people to alter the intensity of their job search or their decisions to take advantage of retraining opportunities? Does it enable them to hold out for better-paying jobs? The author forges new ground with this study by combining information from an administrative data base on displaced workers from Massachusetts that includes the names of their previous employers with severance plan summaries obtained from a subset of-these employers. She finds that severance recipients in Massachusetts returned to work more slowly than nonrecipients in the early 1990s, even after adjusting for other factors such as local unemployment rates and demographic characteristics that may have played an independent role. Severance benefits had some positive impact-on enrollments in remedial and basic education programs but no consequences for reemployment pay. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Kodrzycki, YK (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 16 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD NOV-DEC PY 1998 BP 41 EP + PG 29 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 158VZ UT WOS:000078139300003 ER PT J AU Jones, CI Williams, JC AF Jones, CI Williams, JC TI Measuring the social return to R&D SO QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH; TECHNOLOGY FLOWS; ECONOMIC-GROWTH; SPILLOVERS; FIRMS AB Is there too much or too little research and development (R&D)? In this paper we bridge the gap between the recent growth literature and the empirical productivity literature. We derive in a growth model the relationship between the social rate of return to R&D and the coefficient estimates of the empirical literature and show that these estimates represent a lower bound. Furthermore, our analytic framework provides a direct mapping from the rate of return to the degree of underinvestment in research. Conservative estimates suggest that optimal R&D investment is at least two to four times actual investment. C1 Stanford Univ, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Jones, CI (reprint author), Stanford Univ, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. RI Williams, John/A-8226-2009 NR 22 TC 218 Z9 219 U1 3 U2 21 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0033-5533 J9 Q J ECON JI Q. J. Econ. PD NOV PY 1998 VL 113 IS 4 BP 1119 EP 1135 DI 10.1162/003355398555856 PG 17 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 140BW UT WOS:000077067700005 ER PT J AU Kahn, JA Lim, JS AF Kahn, JA Lim, JS TI Skilled labor-augmenting technical progress in US manufacturing SO QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID WAGES; DEMAND AB This paper examines the role of skilled labor in the growth of total factor productivity. We use panel data from manufacturing industries to assess the extent to which productivity growth in yearly cross sections is tied to industry shares of skilled labor inputs. We find robust evidence that productivity growth was increasingly concentrated in high-skill industries during a unique ten-year period beginning in the early 1970s. We do not find any positive association of productivity growth with new capital investment. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. Kwangwoon Univ, Seoul, South Korea. RP Kahn, JA (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 14 TC 22 Z9 22 U1 1 U2 4 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0033-5533 J9 Q J ECON JI Q. J. Econ. PD NOV PY 1998 VL 113 IS 4 BP 1281 EP 1308 DI 10.1162/003355398555810 PG 28 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 140BW UT WOS:000077067700010 ER PT J AU Carlino, G DeFina, R AF Carlino, G DeFina, R TI The differential regional effects of monetary policy SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID TRANSMISSION MECHANISM; UNITED-STATES; TIME-SERIES; COINTEGRATION; VECTORS; MODEL; FUNDS; MONEY AB This paper examines whether monetary policy has similar effects across regions in the United States. Impulse response functions from an estimated structural vector autoregression reveal a core of regions-New England, Mideast, Plains, Southeast, and the Far West-that respond to monetary policy changes in ways that closely approximate the U.S. average response. Of the three noncore regions, one (Great Lakes) is noticeably more sensitive to monetary policy changes, and two (Southwest and Rocky Mountains) are found to be much less sensitive. A state-level version of the model is estimated and used to provide evidence on the channels for monetary policy. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Philadelphia, PA 19106 USA. Villanova Univ, Villanova, PA 19085 USA. RP Carlino, G (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Philadelphia, PA 19106 USA. NR 47 TC 108 Z9 114 U1 0 U2 4 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD NOV PY 1998 VL 80 IS 4 BP 572 EP 587 DI 10.1162/003465398557843 PG 16 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA 148DL UT WOS:000077489000008 ER PT J AU Calem, PS Nakamura, LI AF Calem, PS Nakamura, LI TI Branch banking and the geography of bank pricing SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID MARKETS AB We show that bank branching tends to mitigate localized market power by broadening the geographic scope of competition among banks, even though branch banking allows banks to differentiate themselves through their choices of branch locations. Banking services at peripheral locations will be priced more competitively when those locales are served by branch networks. We develop a theoretical model in support of this view and offer empirical evidence. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, Philadelphia, PA USA. RP Calem, PS (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 18 TC 16 Z9 16 U1 1 U2 2 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD NOV PY 1998 VL 80 IS 4 BP 600 EP 610 DI 10.1162/003465398557681 PG 11 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA 148DL UT WOS:000077489000010 ER PT J AU Peristiani, S AF Peristiani, S TI The growing reluctance to borrow at the discount window: An empirical investigation SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID GREAT-DEPRESSION; MONETARY-POLICY AB Federal Reserve Regulation A imposes formal guidelines on borrowing from the discount window and ensures that the facility is used for appropriate purposes. In a way, this regulation imposes a nonprice mechanism that compels depository institutions to be more prudent in exercising their borrowing privileges. In the 1980s, however, banks became increasingly more reluctant to borrow adjustment credit from the discount window. This behavior is puzzling because discount window guidelines have not changed. This paper investigates the reasons behind the weakened demand for borrowed reserves. Our empirical findings suggest that the growing reluctance to borrow stems from the deteriorating financial position of banks during this period. In particular, banks avoided the discount window because they feared that market participants might have interpreted their visits as a signal of serious funding difficulties. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Peristiani, S (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 19 TC 16 Z9 16 U1 0 U2 6 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD NOV PY 1998 VL 80 IS 4 BP 611 EP 620 DI 10.1162/003465398557690 PG 10 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA 148DL UT WOS:000077489000011 ER PT J AU Dolmas, J Wynne, MA AF Dolmas, J Wynne, MA TI Elastic capital supply and the effects of fiscal policy SO ECONOMIC INQUIRY LA English DT Article AB Existing analyses of the effects of fiscal policy in general equilibrium models have typically been conducted under the assumption that the long-run supply of capital is perfectly elastic at a fixed rate of time preference. These analyses have shown that the long-run response of the capital stock to changes in fiscal policy is crucial to generating the potential for "multiplier" effects in these models. In this paper we ask, what are the implications of relaxing the assumption of perfectly elastic capital supply for the analysis of fiscal policy? We show that with less than perfectly elastic capital supply, the potential for multipliers is actually enhanced. (JEL E62, D90). C1 So Methodist Univ, Dept Econ, Dallas, TX 75275 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, Dept Res, Dallas, TX USA. RP Dolmas, J (reprint author), So Methodist Univ, Dept Econ, Dallas, TX 75275 USA. EM jdolmas@mail.smu.edu; Mark.A.Wynne@dal.frb.org NR 29 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 1 U2 1 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 USA SN 0095-2583 J9 ECON INQ JI Econ. Inq. PD OCT PY 1998 VL 36 IS 4 BP 553 EP 574 PG 22 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 133EG UT WOS:000076673000005 ER PT J AU Tallman, E Moen, J AF Tallman, E Moen, J TI Gold shocks, liquidity, and the United States economy during the National Banking Era SO EXPLORATIONS IN ECONOMIC HISTORY LA English DT Article ID VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIONS; REALITY; PANICS AB This paper investigates the monetary transmission mechanism under the gold standard and finds that shocks to the gold stock had a significant impact on real and financial variables in the United States during the National Banking Era, consistent with the descriptions of contemporary observers. The evidence points toward the existence of a liquidity effect on short-term interest rates and suggests a nonneutrality of gold-based high-powered money shocks during this period of the classical gold standard. (C) 1998 Academic Press. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. Univ Mississippi, University, MS 38677 USA. RP Tallman, E (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. NR 36 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 1 U2 3 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 USA SN 0014-4983 J9 EXPLOR ECON HIST JI Explor. Econ. Hist. PD OCT PY 1998 VL 35 IS 4 BP 381 EP 404 DI 10.1006/exeh.1998.0705 PG 24 WC Economics; History Of Social Sciences SC Business & Economics; Social Sciences - Other Topics GA 130AZ UT WOS:000076498200002 ER PT J AU Lynch, LM Black, SE AF Lynch, LM Black, SE TI Beyond the incidence of employer-provided training SO INDUSTRIAL & LABOR RELATIONS REVIEW LA English DT Article ID JOB AB Using data from a 1994 survey of U.S. establishments, the authors investigate how the incidence, content, and extent of employer-provided training were linked to workplace practices and characteristics, physical capital investments, and workers' education. Formal training programs were positively associated with establishment size, the presence of high-performance work systems (such as Total Quality Management), capital-intensive production, and workers' education level. "General" types of training programs in computing and basic education were most likely in establishments that were large, were part of a multiestablishment firm, had low employee turnover, or had high-performance work systems. The percentage of workers given training was highest in establishments that had made large investments in physical capital or had adopted new forms of work organization, especially in the manufacturing sector. These results suggest that employer-provided training complements rather than substitutes for investments in physical capital and education. C1 Tufts Univ, Fletcher Sch Law & Diplomacy, Medford, MA 02155 USA. Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Lynch, LM (reprint author), Tufts Univ, Fletcher Sch Law & Diplomacy, Medford, MA 02155 USA. NR 23 TC 104 Z9 104 U1 0 U2 5 PU INDUSTRIAL LABOR RELAT REV PI ITHACA PA CORNELL UNIV, ITHACA, NY 14851-0952 USA SN 0019-7939 J9 IND LABOR RELAT REV JI Ind. Labor Relat. Rev. PD OCT PY 1998 VL 52 IS 1 BP 64 EP 81 DI 10.2307/2525243 PG 18 WC Industrial Relations & Labor SC Business & Economics GA 127HA UT WOS:000076343800004 ER PT J AU Ericsson, NR AF Ericsson, NR TI Special section on exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis - Associate Editor's introduction SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Fed Reserve Board, Div Ind Finance, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Ericsson, NR (reprint author), Fed Reserve Board, Div Ind Finance, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 7 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC PI ALEXANDRIA PA 1429 DUKE ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 USA SN 0735-0015 J9 J BUS ECON STAT JI J. Bus. Econ. Stat. PD OCT PY 1998 VL 16 IS 4 BP 369 EP 369 PG 1 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Mathematics GA 126EB UT WOS:000076279000001 ER PT J AU Ericsson, NR Hendry, DF Mizon, GE AF Ericsson, NR Hendry, DF Mizon, GE TI Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS LA English DT Article DE causality; equation inversion; impulse response analysis; invariance; Lucas critique; money demand ID ERROR-CORRECTION MODELS; WEAK EXOGENEITY; VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIONS; ECONOMETRIC-ANALYSIS; LONG-RUN; SYSTEMS; REPRESENTATION; DEMAND; AGGREGATE; INFERENCE AB This overview examines conditions for reliable economic policy analysis based on econometric models, focusing on the econometric concepts of exogeneity, cointegration, causality, and invariance. Weak, strong, and super exogeneity are discussed in general, and these concepts are then applied to the use of econometric models in policy analysis when the variables are cointegrated. Implications follow for model constancy, the Lucas critique, equation inversion, and impulse response analysis. A small money-demand model for the United Kingdom illustrates the main analytical points. This article then summarizes the other articles in this issue's special section on exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis. C1 Fed Reserve Board, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Univ Oxford Nuffield Coll, Oxford OX1 1NF, England. Univ Southampton, Dept Econ, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. European Univ Inst, Dept Econ, I-50016 Florence, Italy. RP Ericsson, NR (reprint author), Fed Reserve Board, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 88 TC 37 Z9 37 U1 0 U2 1 PU AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC PI ALEXANDRIA PA 1429 DUKE ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 USA SN 0735-0015 J9 J BUS ECON STAT JI J. Bus. Econ. Stat. PD OCT PY 1998 VL 16 IS 4 BP 370 EP 387 DI 10.2307/1392607 PG 18 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Mathematics GA 126EB UT WOS:000076279000002 ER PT J AU de Brouwer, G Ericsson, NR AF de Brouwer, G Ericsson, NR TI Modeling inflation in Australia SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS LA English DT Article DE cointegration; CPI; error correction; general to specific modeling; markup model; prices ID LAGGED DEPENDENT-VARIABLES; ERROR-CORRECTION MODELS; REGRESSION RELATIONSHIPS; COINTEGRATION VECTORS; MONEY DEMAND; TESTS; HETEROSCEDASTICITY; HETEROSKEDASTICITY; ECONOMETRICS; STATISTICS AB This article develops an empirically constant, data-coherent, error-correction model for inflation in Australia. The level of consumer prices is a markup over domestic and import costs, with adjustments for dynamics and relative aggregate demand. We address issues of cointegration, general to specific modeling, dynamic specification, model evaluation and testing, parameter constancy, forecasting, and exogeneity. We also test this model against existing models of Australian prices: This model encompasses (but is not encompassed by) the existing models. C1 Reserve Bank Australia, Financial Markets Grp, Sydney, NSW 2000, Australia. Fed Reserve Board, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP de Brouwer, G (reprint author), Reserve Bank Australia, Financial Markets Grp, Sydney, NSW 2000, Australia. NR 69 TC 42 Z9 42 U1 0 U2 1 PU AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC PI ALEXANDRIA PA 1429 DUKE ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 USA SN 0735-0015 J9 J BUS ECON STAT JI J. Bus. Econ. Stat. PD OCT PY 1998 VL 16 IS 4 BP 433 EP 449 DI 10.2307/1392612 PG 17 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Mathematics GA 126EB UT WOS:000076279000007 ER PT J AU Guo, JT Lansing, KJ AF Guo, JT Lansing, KJ TI Indeterminacy and stabilization policy SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article ID ANIMAL SPIRITS; EXTERNALITIES; RETURNS; SCALE AB It has been shown that a one-sector real business cycle model with sufficient increasing returns in production may possess an indeterminate steady state that can be exploited to generate business cycles driven by "animal spirits" of agents. This paper shows how an income tax schedule that exhibits a progressivity Feature can ensure saddle path stability in such a framework and thereby stabilize the economy against sunspot fluctuations. Conversely, an economy with a flat or regressive tax schedule is more susceptible to indeterminacy. (C) 1998 Academic Press. C1 Univ Calif Riverside, Dept Econ, Riverside, CA 92521 USA. Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, Dept Res, San Francisco, CA 94120 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Dept Res, Cleveland, OH 44101 USA. RP Guo, JT (reprint author), Univ Calif Riverside, Dept Econ, 1150 Univ Ave, Riverside, CA 92521 USA. NR 18 TC 53 Z9 53 U1 0 U2 3 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 USA SN 0022-0531 J9 J ECON THEORY JI J. Econ. Theory PD OCT PY 1998 VL 82 IS 2 BP 481 EP 490 DI 10.1006/jeth.1997.2446 PG 10 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 136ML UT WOS:000076863000010 ER PT J AU Stevens, GVG AF Stevens, GVG TI On the inverse of the covariance matrix in portfolio analysis SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Article AB The goal of this paper is the derivation and application of a direct characterization of the inverse of the covariance matrix central to portfolio analysis. Such a characterization, in terms of a few primitive constructs, provides the basis for new and illuminating expressions for key concepts as the optimal holding of a given risky asset and the slope of the risk-return efficiency frontier faced by the individual investor The building blocks of the inverse turn out to be the regression coefficients and residual variance obtained by regressing the asset's excess return on the set of excess returns for all other risky assets. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Stevens, GVG (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 11 TC 18 Z9 19 U1 0 U2 6 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI HOBOKEN PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA SN 0022-1082 EI 1540-6261 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD OCT PY 1998 VL 53 IS 5 BP 1821 EP 1827 DI 10.1111/0022-1082.00074 PG 7 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 123DG UT WOS:000076110100013 ER PT J AU Berger, AN Davies, SM AF Berger, AN Davies, SM TI The information content of bank examinations SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Article ID CREDIT CRUNCH; CAMEL RATINGS; STOCK-PRICES; MARKET; BOND AB We identify three types of Information from bank examinations-"auditing information" from verifying the honesty and accuracy of the bank's books, ''regulatory discipline information'' about the treatment of the bank by regulators, and "private information" about bank condition. We estimate these information effects by comparing the cumulative abnormal market returns associated with examinations in which the CAMEL rating remained unchanged, improved, and worsened. All three information effects are found to be greater for banks entering the examination process with unsatisfactory ratings from prior examinations. The only consistently strong effect found is that examination downgrades appear to reveal unfavorable private information about bank condition. The evidence also suggests that the information may reach the market in part through loan quality data released in quarterly financial statements. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Berger, AN (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 50 TC 25 Z9 25 U1 3 U2 8 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD OCT PY 1998 VL 14 IS 2 BP 117 EP 144 DI 10.1023/A:1008011312729 PG 28 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA 179KU UT WOS:000079327100002 ER PT J AU Cox, WM Ruffin, RJ AF Cox, WM Ruffin, RJ TI Country-bashing tariffs: Do bilateral trade deficits matter? SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE country-bashing tariffs ID RETALIATION AB This paper investigates the impact of restricting bilateral trade imbalances in a three country, three good model. Bilateral trade balances matter because, in the Nash equilibrium, each country will impose tariffs on countries with whom they have bilateral deficits or promote trade with countries with whom they have bilateral surpluses. All countries lose from a Nash country-bashing war. Each country loses from the unilateral elimination of its bilateral imbalances, But a country can gain from a bilateral agreement with its deficit partner provided that country has a surplus with a country devoted to free trade. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Dallas, Dept Res, Dallas, TX 75265 USA. Univ Houston, Dept Econ, Houston, TX 77204 USA. RP Cox, WM (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Dallas, Dept Res, Dallas, TX 75265 USA. NR 15 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 2 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD OCT PY 1998 VL 46 IS 1 BP 61 EP 72 DI 10.1016/S0022-1996(97)00041-X PG 12 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 130ZX UT WOS:000076551900003 ER PT J AU Cramton, P Tracy, J AF Cramton, P Tracy, J TI The use of replacement workers in union contract negotiations: The US experience, 1980-1989 SO JOURNAL OF LABOR ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID STRIKE DURATION AB It is argued in many circles that a structural change occurred in U.S. collective bargaining in the 1980s. We investigate the extent to which the hiring of replacement workers can account for these changes. For a sample of over 300 major strikes since 1980, we estimate the likelihood of replacements being hired. Reducing the replacement risk to the pre-1982 levels would have led to a reduction in the dispute incidence by 5 percentage points, an increase in the fraction of disputes involving a strike by 4 percentage points, and an increase in the strike incidence by 0.8 percentage points. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. Univ Maryland, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. RP Cramton, P (reprint author), Univ Maryland, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. NR 23 TC 15 Z9 15 U1 0 U2 1 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5801 S ELLIS AVENUE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 USA SN 0734-306X J9 J LABOR ECON JI J. Labor Econ. PD OCT PY 1998 VL 16 IS 4 BP 667 EP 701 DI 10.1086/209902 PG 35 WC Economics; Industrial Relations & Labor SC Business & Economics GA 135BX UT WOS:000076781200001 ER PT J AU Stefanadis, C AF Stefanadis, C TI Selective contracts, foreclosure, and the Chicago School view SO JOURNAL OF LAW & ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID EXCLUSION; ENTRY AB I examine a mechanism by which exclusive supply contracts may inefficiently deter entry into the market. In the model, the incumbent supplier selectively offers contracts only to some buyers and convinces them to consent by guaranteeing them low prices. The contracts strengthen the monopoly position of the incumbent supplier and allow it to extract rents from the remaining buyers that were not offered contracts. Aside from the favorable contract terms, buyers have another reason to consent to the exclusivity scheme: the latter raises the input costs of rival buyers that were not offered contracts. The model has potential applications to the recent Microsoft antitrust case (1994). I define exclusive supply contract as an agreement under which an upstream firm becomes the exclusive supplier of a downstream firm; the downstream firm is prohibited from buying from other suppliers. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Stefanadis, C (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 33 TC 15 Z9 15 U1 1 U2 2 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5801 S ELLIS AVENUE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 USA SN 0022-2186 J9 J LAW ECON JI J. Law Econ. PD OCT PY 1998 VL 41 IS 2 BP 429 EP 450 DI 10.1086/467396 PN 1 PG 22 WC Economics; Law SC Business & Economics; Government & Law GA 148FM UT WOS:000077494400005 ER PT J AU Smith, BD Wang, C AF Smith, BD Wang, C TI Repeated insurance relationships in a costly state verification model: With an application to deposit insurance SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE deposit insurance; bank supervision ID INTERMEDIATION; INFORMATION AB We consider the problem of an insurer who enters into a repeated relationship with a set of risk averse agents in the presence of ex post verification costs, The insurer wishes to minimize the expected cost of providing these agents a certain expected utility level. We characterize the optimal contract between the insurer and the insured, agents. We then apply the analysis to the provision of deposit insurance. Our results suggest - in a deposit insurance context - that it may be optima. to utilize the discount window early on, and to make deposit insurance payments only later, or not at all. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Texas, Dept Econ, Austin, TX 78712 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Grad Sch Ind Adm, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Smith, BD (reprint author), Univ Texas, Dept Econ, Austin, TX 78712 USA. EM bsmith@eco.utexas.edu NR 18 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 2 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD OCT PY 1998 VL 42 IS 2 BP 207 EP 240 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(98)00029-4 PG 34 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 109NT UT WOS:000075329500001 ER PT J AU Beaulieu, JJ Mattey, J AF Beaulieu, JJ Mattey, J TI The workweek of capital and capital utilization in manufacturing SO JOURNAL OF PRODUCTIVITY ANALYSIS LA English DT Article DE workweek of capital; capital utilization; productivity growth ID CAPACITY UTILIZATION; PRODUCTIVITY-MEASUREMENT; INCREASING RETURNS; PLANT-LEVEL; REAL WAGES; EXTERNALITIES; INVESTMENT; INDUSTRY AB Over the typical intervals of time studied in economic analysis, the how of capital services is not a fixed proportion of the capital stock. Much of the short-run variation in capital services comes from the duration of operations. This paper presents new estimates of the workweek of capital from the Census Bureau's Survey of Plant Capacity (SPC), both for our own analytical use and to make workweek data more widely available to other researchers. The paper uses these workweek estimates to reconsider various results in the literature on capital utilization and productivity growth. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA. RP Beaulieu, JJ (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Mail Stop 82, Washington, DC 20551 USA. EM m1jjb00@frb.gov; Joe.Mattey@sf.frb.org NR 77 TC 10 Z9 10 U1 0 U2 10 PU SPRINGER PI DORDRECHT PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0895-562X EI 1573-0441 J9 J PROD ANAL JI J. Prod. Anal. PD OCT PY 1998 VL 10 IS 2 BP 199 EP 223 DI 10.1023/A:1018629508255 PG 25 WC Business; Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA 129MP UT WOS:000076467800004 ER PT J AU Cole, HL Mailath, GJ Postlewaite, A AF Cole, HL Mailath, GJ Postlewaite, A TI Class systems and the enforcement of social norms SO JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT International Seminar on Public Economics CY DEC 12-14, 1996 CL BONN, GERMANY DE class; efficiency; growth; social competition; social norms ID ARISTOCRATIC EQUILIBRIA; GAMES AB We analyze a model in which there is socially inefficient competition among people. In this model, self-enforcing social norms can potentially control the inefficient competition. However, the inefficient behavior often cannot be suppressed in equilibrium among those with the lowest income due to the ineffectiveness of sanctions against those in the society with the least to lose. We demonstrate that, in such cases, it may be possible for society to be divided into distinct classes, with inefficient behavior suppressed in the upper classes but not in the lower. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Penn, Dept Econ, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. RP Mailath, GJ (reprint author), Univ Penn, Dept Econ, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. NR 12 TC 28 Z9 28 U1 0 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA PI LAUSANNE PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND SN 0047-2727 J9 J PUBLIC ECON JI J. Public Econ. PD OCT PY 1998 VL 70 IS 1 BP 5 EP 35 DI 10.1016/S0047-2727(98)00058-9 PG 31 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 128XF UT WOS:000076433100002 ER PT J AU Hayes, KJ Ross, LB AF Hayes, KJ Ross, LB TI Is airline price dispersion the result of careful planning or competitive forces? SO REVIEW OF INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION LA English DT Article DE price dispersion; price discrimination; airline markets ID MULTIMARKET CONTACT; INDUSTRY; DISCRIMINATION AB We develop a model of price dispersion to distinguish the impact of price discrimination from that of peak load pricing schemes or atypical competition resulting from the financial difficulties of the early 1990s. By utilizing three alternative measures of dispersion and appealing to economic theory for our specification, we find robust results suggesting an estrangement between price dispersion and price discrimination. While some discrimination continues to persist at monopolized endpoints, most dispersion is associated with fare wars and peak load pricing schemes. C1 So Methodist Univ, Dept Econ, Dallas, TX 75275 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, Res Dept, Dallas, TX 75265 USA. Seattle Univ, Dept Econ & Finance, Seattle, WA 98122 USA. RP Hayes, KJ (reprint author), So Methodist Univ, Dept Econ, Dallas, TX 75275 USA. NR 26 TC 27 Z9 27 U1 0 U2 0 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0889-938X J9 REV IND ORGAN JI Rev. Ind. Organ. PD OCT PY 1998 VL 13 IS 5 BP 523 EP 541 PG 19 WC Economics; Management SC Business & Economics GA 138DA UT WOS:000076955100003 ER PT J AU Greenspan, A AF Greenspan, A TI Is there a new economy? SO CALIFORNIA MANAGEMENT REVIEW LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Greenspan, A (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 0 TC 10 Z9 10 U1 0 U2 3 PU UNIV CALIF PI BERKELEY PA GRAD SCH BUSINESS ADMIN, BERKELEY, CA 94720 USA SN 0008-1256 J9 CALIF MANAGE REV JI Calif. Manage. Rev. PD FAL PY 1998 VL 41 IS 1 BP 74 EP 75 PG 2 WC Business; Management SC Business & Economics GA 142TM UT WOS:000077216500005 ER PT J AU Greenspan, A AF Greenspan, A TI Is there a new economy? SO CALIFORNIA MANAGEMENT REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan inaugurated the Haas Annual Business Faculty Research Dialogue at the University of California, Berkeley, on September 4, 1998. In this article, the chief architect of U.S. monetary policy acknowledges the unpredicted and somewhat inexplicable "new" features of the economy. He also lays out some enduring lessons from the old economy. One of those lessons is that expectations about the future inevitably hold sway in the markets for both financial capital and physical capital. Investment inherently turns on expectations about the sizes and risks of profit and loss. These expectations reflect not only data but also human psychology. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Townsend Greenspan & Co Inc, New York, NY USA. RP Greenspan, A (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 1 U2 2 PU UNIV CALIF PI BERKELEY PA GRAD SCH BUSINESS ADMIN, BERKELEY, CA 94720 USA SN 0008-1256 J9 CALIF MANAGE REV JI Calif. Manage. Rev. PD FAL PY 1998 VL 41 IS 1 BP 75 EP + PG 12 WC Business; Management SC Business & Economics GA 142TM UT WOS:000077216500006 ER PT J AU Aaronson, D AF Aaronson, D TI Using sibling data to estimate the impact of neighborhoods on children's educational outcomes SO JOURNAL OF HUMAN RESOURCES LA English DT Article ID TEENAGE CHILDBEARING; FAMILY; CONSEQUENCES; DIFFERENCE AB Studies that attempt to measure the impact of neighborhoods on children's outcomes are susceptible to bias because families choose where to live. As a result, the effect of family unobservables, such as the importance parents place on their children's welfare, and other unobservables that are common to geographically clustered households may be mistakenly attributed to neighborhood influences Previous studies that attempt to correct for this selection bias have used questionable instrumental variables. This paper introduces an approach based on the observation that the la tent factors associated with neighborhood choice do not vary across siblings. Therefore, family residential changes provide a source of neighborhood background variation that is free of the family-specific heterogeneity biases associated with neighborhood selection Using a sample of multichild families whose children are separated in age by at least three years, I estimate family fixed effect equations of children's educational outcomes. The fixed effect results suggest that the impact of neighborhoods may exist even when family-specific unobservables are controlled. This finding is robust to many changes to estimation techniques, outcome measures, variable definitions, and samples but is sensitive to the exact formulation of the neighborhood measure. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Chicago, IL 60604 USA. RP Aaronson, D (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Chicago, IL 60604 USA. NR 23 TC 130 Z9 130 U1 2 U2 14 PU UNIV WISCONSIN PRESS PI MADISON PA JOURNAL DIVISION, 2537 DANIELS ST, MADISON, WI 53718 USA SN 0022-166X J9 J HUM RESOUR JI J. Hum. Resour. PD FAL PY 1998 VL 33 IS 4 BP 915 EP 946 DI 10.2307/146403 PG 32 WC Economics; Industrial Relations & Labor SC Business & Economics GA 155UV UT WOS:000077965500006 ER PT J AU Browne, LE Hellerstein, R Little, JS AF Browne, LE Hellerstein, R Little, JS TI Inflation, asset markets, and economic stabilization: Lessons from Asia SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID MONETARY-POLICY; LIBERALIZATION AB In the 1980s, a new convention emerged in the economics profession-that central banks' primary, even sole, responsibility should be con trolling consumer price inflation. By the 1990s, this view was gaining credibility in policy circles, and various countries mandated that their central banks make inflation their primary focus (generally with an escape clause in the event of a severe economic shock). Here in the United States, this orthodoxy never gained official status; rather, the U.S. policy goal remains promoting stable long-term growth using a variety of theoretical approaches. The recent problems in East Asia, as well as earlier difficulties in Japan raise the question of whether such a concentrated focus on inflation became tunnel vision. Drawing on the crises in Japan and other Asian countries, with reference to comparable episodes in the United States, this article suggests that a preoccupation with inflation may have lulled policymakers and investors into ignoring useful signals from stock, real estate, and currency markets and from emerging imbalances in the real economy. Whether such imbalances would have been better addressed by monetary policy, or by improved disclosure, supervisory intervention, or tax policy, a broader perspective might have identified problems in Asia before they assumed such crippling proportions. The article concludes by suggesting that policymakers may want to look for signs of overheating emanating from asset markets and from emerging imbalances in the real economy, even when consumer prices are well behaved. Signs that high levels of debt may be financing increasingly optimistic investments warrant particular concern. The article also stresses the vulnerabilities that newly liberalized financial markets may introduce and the importance of measures that encourage the private sector to price risk more accurately and force it to bear the costs of international financial crises more fully. Overall, it advocates an eclectic approach to assessing economic performance. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Browne, LE (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 63 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 2 U2 5 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD SEP-OCT PY 1998 BP 3 EP + PG 31 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 137HD UT WOS:000076907900001 ER PT J AU Simons, K AF Simons, K TI Risk-adjusted performance of mutual funds SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID ASSET AB Mutual funds are now the preferred way for individual investors and many institutions to participate in the capital markets, and their popularity has increased demand for evaluations of fund performance. Many business publications now rank mutual Amds according to their performance, and information sen ices exist specifically for this purpose. There is no general agreement, however, about how best to measure and compare fund performance and on what information funds should disclose to investors. Risk and performance measurement is an active area for academic research and continues to be of vital interest to investors who need to make informed decisions and to mutual fund managers whose compensation is tied to performance. This article describes a number of performance measures. Their common feature is that they all measure funds' returns relative to risk. However, they differ in how they define and measure risk and, consequently, in how they define risk-adjusted performance. The author also compares rankings of a large sample of funds using two popular measures. She finds a surprisingly good agreement between the two measures for both stock and bond funds during the three-year period between 1995 and 1997. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Simons, K (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 15 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD SEP-OCT PY 1998 BP 33 EP + PG 17 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 137HD UT WOS:000076907900003 ER PT J AU Jordan, JS AF Jordan, JS TI Resolving a banking crisis: What worked in New England SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID DEPOSIT INSURANCE; LESSONS AB Many Asian economies are now experiencing economic hardship, their troubles stemming in part from crises in their banking sectors. Given the important role the banking sector plays in these economics, resolution of their banking crises is a vital first step toward resuming economic growth. Unfortunately, the steps taken so far appear inadequate, and many observers compare current attempts to those of U.S. regulators during our initial efforts to resolve the S&L crisis. Given the lengthy time it took and the high cost of the taxpayer-supported resolution, this is not a comparison the Asian countries should welcome. The six New England states also experienced a severe banking crisis, losing more than 15 percent of their banks in the early 1990s. The New England crisis was resolved at far less cost and in a much more timely manner than the S&L crisis. This article examines the behavior and interactions of bankers, regulators, and market. participants during the crisis. The author finds that failing New England banks, in their final years, did not increase the riskiness of their operations in a last-chance effort to salvage their firms. Strict regulatory oversight, public disclosure of banking problems, and market discipline also contributed to the success of the resolution. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Jordan, JS (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 25 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 1 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD SEP-OCT PY 1998 BP 49 EP + PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 137HD UT WOS:000076907900004 ER PT J AU Formaini, RL AF Formaini, RL TI Money for nothing: Politicians, rent extraction, and political extortion SO PUBLIC INTEREST LA English DT Book Review C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Dallas, TX 75201 USA. RP Formaini, RL (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Dallas, TX 75201 USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU NATL AFFAIRS INC PI WASHINGTON PA 1112 16TH ST NW, SUITE 530, WASHINGTON, DC 20036 USA SN 0033-3557 J9 PUBLIC INTEREST JI Public Interest PD FAL PY 1998 IS 133 BP 133 EP 135 PG 3 WC Public Administration; Social Issues SC Public Administration; Social Issues GA 119KU UT WOS:000075895800012 ER PT J AU Pritsker, M AF Pritsker, M TI Nonparametric density estimation and tests of continuous time interest rate models SO REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES LA English DT Article ID TERM STRUCTURE AB I study the finite sample distribution of one of Ait-Sahalia's (1996c) nonparametric tests of continuous-time models of the short-term riskless Fate. The test rejects true models too often because interest rate data are highly persistent but the asymptotic distribution of the test (and of the kernel density estimator on which the test is based) treats the data as if it were independently and identically distributed To attain the accuracy of the kernel density estimator implied by ifs asymptotic distribution with 22 years of data generated from the Vasicek model in fact requires 2755 years of data. C1 Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Pritsker, M (reprint author), Fed Reserve Board, Mail Stop 91, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 36 TC 74 Z9 74 U1 1 U2 3 PU OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC PI CARY PA JOURNALS DEPT, 2001 EVANS RD, CARY, NC 27513 USA SN 0893-9454 J9 REV FINANC STUD JI Rev. Financ. Stud. PD FAL PY 1998 VL 11 IS 3 BP 449 EP 487 DI 10.1093/rfs/11.3.449 PG 39 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 117XD UT WOS:000075807200001 ER PT J AU Royer, H Smith, G AF Royer, H Smith, G TI Can the famous really postpone death? SO SOCIAL BIOLOGY LA English DT Article AB David P. Phillips has reported evidence that famous people are often able to postpone their deaths until after a birthday. ii reexamination of Phillips' data shows some aspects of his analysis to be questionable, including the lumping together of deaths that occur during the birthmonth, which does not distinguish deaths that occurred before the birthday from those that occurred afterward. A reanalysis of his data shows that there were actually a relatively large number of deaths in the month preceding and the months following the birthday: One explanation is that the anxiety associated with this milestone and the excesses associated with its celebration are sometimes fatal. Another explanation is that Phillips' results were a fluke created by a selective use of data. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA. Pomona Coll, Dept Econ, Claremont, CA 91711 USA. RP Royer, H (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA. NR 11 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 0 PU SOC STUDY SOCIAL BIOLOGY PI PORT ANGELES PA P O BOX 2349, PORT ANGELES, WA 98362 USA SN 0037-766X J9 SOC BIOL JI Soc. Biol. PD FAL-WIN PY 1998 VL 45 IS 3-4 BP 302 EP 305 PG 4 WC Demography; Social Sciences, Biomedical; Sociology SC Demography; Biomedical Social Sciences; Sociology GA 174QC UT WOS:000079045000011 PM 10085742 ER PT J AU Sommer, JH AF Sommer, JH TI A law of financial accounts: Modern payment and securities transfer law SO BUSINESS LAWYER LA English DT Article AB This Article discusses the structure and policies of modern payment and securities transfer law, as epitomized by U.C.C. Articles 4A and part 5 of U.C.C. Article 8. Both bodies of law require tremendous legal clarity and govern highly intermediated systems of accounts. These similar requirements evoke similar responses: formalism and careful compartmentalization of legal responsibility. The same analytical structure explains most of the distinctive features of these bodies of law: security interests in deposit accounts and security entitlements, enforcement of judgements against accounts, third-party claims, and conflict-of-laws. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Sommer, JH (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 31 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER BAR ASSOC PI CHICAGO PA 750 N LAKE SHORE DR, ATTN:ORDER FULFILLMENT, CHICAGO, IL 60611 USA SN 0007-6899 J9 BUS LAWYER JI Bus. Lawyer PD AUG PY 1998 VL 53 IS 4 BP 1181 EP + PG 36 WC Law SC Government & Law GA 129UN UT WOS:000076482200002 ER PT J AU Bhattacharya, J Guzman, MG Smith, BD AF Bhattacharya, J Guzman, MG Smith, BD TI Some even more unpleasant monetarist arithmetic SO CANADIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS-REVUE CANADIENNE D ECONOMIQUE LA English DT Article ID OPEN-MARKET OPERATIONS; TIGHT MONEY; INFLATION AB Does monetizing a deficit always result in a higher rate of inflation than bond financing the same deficit? Sargent and Wallace (1981) produced conditions under which the answer was negative ('unpleasant monetarist arithmetic'). Subsequent authors have challenged the empirical validity of these conditions. We develop a model similar to that of Sargent and Wallace and modify it to allow for financial intermediation. In the presence of reserve requirements, unpleasant arithmetic arises even when the real rate of growth exceeds the real return on bonds. Moreover, under empirically plausible restrictions, there exists a unique equilibrium; no Laffer curve considerations arise. C1 SUNY Buffalo, Buffalo, NY 14260 USA. Wellesley Coll, Wellesley, MA 02181 USA. Univ Texas, Austin, TX 78712 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. RP Bhattacharya, J (reprint author), SUNY Buffalo, Buffalo, NY 14260 USA. OI Bhattacharya, Joydeep/0000-0002-3148-4592 NR 22 TC 11 Z9 11 U1 0 U2 1 PU UNIV TORONTO PRESS INC PI TORONTO PA JOURNALS DIVISION, 5201 DUFFERIN ST, DOWNSVIEW, TORONTO, ON M3H 5T8, CANADA SN 0008-4085 J9 CAN J ECON JI Can. J. Econ.-Rev. Can. Econ. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 31 IS 3 BP 596 EP 623 DI 10.2307/136204 PG 28 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 120AG UT WOS:000075931000005 ER PT J AU Prescott, EC AF Prescott, EC TI Lawrence R Klein Lecture 1997 needed: A theory of total factor productivity SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID ECONOMIC-GROWTH; INTERNATIONAL-TRADE; POLICY; PRICE AB This paper evaluates the argument that differences in physical and intangible capital can account far the large international income differences that characterize the world economy today. The finding is that they cannot. Savings rate differences are of minor importance. What is all-important is total factor productivity (TFP). In addition, the paper presents industry evidence that TFPs differ across countries and time for reasons other than differences in the publicly available stock of technical knowledge. These findings lead me to conclude a theory of Tm is needed. This theory must account for differences in TFP that arise for reasons other than growth in the stock of technical knowledge. C1 Univ Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, Minneapolis, MN USA. RP Prescott, EC (reprint author), Univ Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. EM ecp@res.mpls.frb.fed.us NR 43 TC 202 Z9 209 U1 4 U2 19 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 USA SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 39 IS 3 BP 525 EP 551 DI 10.2307/2527389 PG 27 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 110GC UT WOS:000075371000001 ER PT J AU Berger, AN Udell, GF AF Berger, AN Udell, GF TI The economics of small business finance: The roles of private equity and debt markets in the financial growth cycle SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on the Economics of Small Business Finance CY MAY 22-23, 1997 CL NYU, NEW YORK, NY SP Berkley Ctr Entrepreneurial Studies, NYU, NYU, Salomon Ctr HO NYU DE venture capital; small business lending; bank; mergers ID MONETARY-POLICY; ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION; LOAN COMMITMENTS; CREDIT CRUNCH; SECURED DEBT; LENDING RELATIONSHIPS; VENTURE CAPITALISTS; TRADE CREDIT; BANK CREDIT; RISK AB This article examines the economics of financing small business in private equity and debt markets. Firms are viewed through a financial growth cycle paradigm in which different capital structures are optimal at different points in the cycle. We show the sources of small business finance, and how capital structure varies with firm size and age. The interconnectedness of small firm finance is discussed along with the impact of the macroeconomic environment. We also analyze a number of research and policy issues, review the literature, and suggest topics for future research. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Wharton Financial Inst Ctr, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. Indiana Univ, Kelley Sch Business, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. RP Berger, AN (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. EM aberger@frb.gov NR 220 TC 560 Z9 583 U1 31 U2 184 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 22 IS 6-8 BP 613 EP 673 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00038-7 PG 61 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 121LP UT WOS:000076015500001 ER PT J AU Prowse, S AF Prowse, S TI Angel investors and the market for angel investments SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on the Economics of Small Business Finance CY MAY 22-23, 1997 CL NYU, NEW YORK, NY SP Berkley Ctr Entrepreneurial Studies, NYU, NYU, Salomon Ctr HO NYU DE angel investors; angel capital; venture capital; small business finance AB The market for angel capital - where individuals provide risk capital directly to small, private, often start-up firms - operates in almost total obscurity. Very little is known about the market's size, scope, the type of firms that raise angel capital, and the types of individuals that provide it. In this paper I present evidence on the angel market gathered from my field research which has involved interviews with more than a dozen angel investors in the Dallas/Fort Worth area. The angel market appears to be a very heterogeneous and localized market. With that qualification in mind, I present some common characteristics of the angels I interviewed, and how they select and monitor their investments. I pay particular attention to how they address adverse selection and moral hazard problems. I compare their behavior with venture capital limited partnerships in the more formal market for venture capital. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Federal Reserve Bank Dallas, Dept Res, Dallas, TX 75265 USA. RP Prowse, S (reprint author), Federal Reserve Bank Dallas, Dept Res, 2200 N Pearl, Dallas, TX 75265 USA. EM stephen.prowses@dal.frb.gov NR 3 TC 43 Z9 43 U1 3 U2 35 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 22 IS 6-8 BP 785 EP 792 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00044-2 PG 8 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 121LP UT WOS:000076015500009 ER PT J AU Peek, J Rosengren, ES AF Peek, J Rosengren, ES TI Bank consolidation and small business lending: It's not just bank size that matters SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on the Economics of Small Business Finance CY MAY 22-23, 1997 CL NYU, NEW YORK, NY SP Berkley Ctr Entrepreneurial Studies, NYU, NYU, Salomon Ctr HO NYU DE small business; bank mergers; lending AB We find that acquirers tend to recast the target in their own image, causing the small business loan portfolio share of the consolidated bank to converge toward the pre-merger portfolio share of the acquirer. However, concerns that this pattern will necessarily reduce bank small business lending may be overblown. First, most mergers are of two (or more) small banks. Second, acquirers are almost as likely to have larger as smaller shares of small business loans in their portfolios, compared to their targets. Finally, in roughly half the mergers, small business loans increase in the period immediately after the merger. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Res Dept T8, Boston, MA 02106 USA. Boston Coll, Dept Econ, Chestnut Hill, MA 02167 USA. RP Rosengren, ES (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Res Dept T8, 600 Atlantic Ave, Boston, MA 02106 USA. EM eric.rose-ngren@bos.frb.org NR 14 TC 84 Z9 86 U1 0 U2 9 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 22 IS 6-8 BP 799 EP 819 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00012-0 PG 21 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 121LP UT WOS:000076015500011 ER PT J AU Strahan, PE Weston, JP AF Strahan, PE Weston, JP TI Small business lending and the changing structure of the banking industry SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on the Economics of Small Business Finance CY MAY 22-23, 1997 CL NYU, NEW YORK, NY SP Berkley Ctr Entrepreneurial Studies, NYU, NYU, Salomon Ctr HO NYU DE bank mergers; small business lending ID FINANCE AB This study investigates the relationship between bank lending to small businesses, banking company size and complexity, and bank consolidation. We consider two potential influences on small business lending associated with changes in the size distribution of the banking sector. On the one hand, organizational diseconomies may increase the costs of small business lending as the size and complexity of the banking company increases. On the other, size-related diversification may enhance lending to small businesses. We find first that small business loans per dollar of asset rises, then falls, with banking company size, while the level of small business lending rises monotonically with size. Second, consolidation among small banking companies serves to increase bank lending to small businesses, while other types of mergers or acquisitions have little effect. We interpret these findings as consistent with the diversification hypothesis. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. Univ Virginia, Dept Econ, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA. RP Strahan, PE (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. EM philip.strahan@ny.frb.org NR 23 TC 98 Z9 99 U1 2 U2 14 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 22 IS 6-8 BP 821 EP 845 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00010-7 PG 25 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 121LP UT WOS:000076015500012 ER PT J AU Berlin, M Mester, LJ AF Berlin, M Mester, LJ TI On the profitability and cost of relationship lending SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on the Economics of Small Business Finance CY MAY 22-23, 1997 CL NYU, NEW YORK, NY SP Berkley Ctr Entrepreneurial Studies, NYU, NYU, Salomon Ctr HO NYU DE bank; lending; small business; profit; cost ID RIGIDITY AB We provide evidence on the costs and profitability of relationship lending by banks. We derive bank-specific measures of loan rate smoothing for small business borrowers in response to exogenous shocks to their credit risk and to interest rates, and then estimate cost and profit functions to examine how smoothing affects bank costs and profits. Our results suggests that, in general, loan rate smoothing in response to a credit risk shock is not part of an optimal long-term contract between a bank and its borrower, while loan rate smoothing in response to an interest-rate shock is. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Federal Reserve Bank Philadelphia, Dept Res, Philadelphia, PA 19106 USA. RP Mester, LJ (reprint author), Federal Reserve Bank Philadelphia, Dept Res, 10 Independence Mall, Philadelphia, PA 19106 USA. EM Loretta.Mes-ter@PHIL.frb.org NR 13 TC 57 Z9 57 U1 1 U2 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 22 IS 6-8 BP 873 EP 897 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00033-8 PG 25 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 121LP UT WOS:000076015500016 ER PT J AU Kashyap, AK AF Kashyap, AK TI Comment on Angelini, DiSalvo and Ferri SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Chicago, Grad Sch Business, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. NEBR, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Chicago, IL 60690 USA. RP Kashyap, AK (reprint author), Univ Chicago, Grad Sch Business, 1101 E 58th St, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. EM anil.kashyap@gsb.uchicago.edu NR 1 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 22 IS 6-8 BP 955 EP 957 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00034-X PG 3 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 121LP UT WOS:000076015500020 ER PT J AU Duca, JV AF Duca, JV TI Comment on Cole SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Editorial Material ID CREDIT C1 Fed Reserve Bank Dallas, Dallas, TX 75265 USA. RP Duca, JV (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Dallas, POB 655906, Dallas, TX 75265 USA. EM john.v.duca@dal.frb.org NR 16 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 22 IS 6-8 BP 978 EP 981 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00006-5 PG 4 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 121LP UT WOS:000076015500022 ER PT J AU Hancock, D Wilcox, JA AF Hancock, D Wilcox, JA TI The "credit crunch" and the availability of credit to small business SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on the Economics of Small Business Finance CY MAY 22-23, 1997 CL NYU, NEW YORK, NY SP Berkley Ctr Entrepreneurial Studies, NYU, NYU, Salomon Ctr HO NYU DE bank capital; credit availability; high-powered loans; small business; credit crunch ID CAPITAL CRUNCH; BANK; LOANS AB We present estimates of how much bank loans and real activity in small businesses responded to changes in banks' capital conditions and other bank and aggregate economic conditions. Using data for 1989-1992 by state, we estimated the effects of those factors on employment, payrolls, and the number of firms by firm size; as well as on gross state product. In response to declines in their own bank capital, small banks shrank their loan portfolios considerably more than large banks did, Large banks tended to increase loans more when small banks were under increased capital pressure than vice versa, Real economic activity was reduced more by capital declines and by loan declines at small banks than at large banks. Small banks were making "high-powered loans" in that dollar-for-dollar loan declines in their loans had larger impacts on economic activity than loan declines at large banks did. Capital declines at small banks produced larger changes in economic activity dollar-for-dollar than capital declines at large banks did. Aggregate economic conditions had smaller effects on small firms than on large firms and smaller effects on small banks than on large banks, The evidence hinted that the volume of loans made under Small Business Administration (SBA) loan guarantee programs shrank less in response to declines in bank capital than the volume of loans not made under the SEA loan guarantee programs. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Univ Calif Berkeley, Haas Sch Business, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. RP Hancock, D (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Mail Stop 153,20th & C St,NW, Washington, DC 20551 USA. EM han-cockd@frb.gov NR 39 TC 52 Z9 53 U1 1 U2 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 22 IS 6-8 BP 983 EP 1014 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00040-5 PG 32 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 121LP UT WOS:000076015500023 ER PT J AU Eisenbeis, RA AF Eisenbeis, RA TI Comment on Hancock and Wilcox SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Div Res, Atlanta, GA USA. RP Eisenbeis, RA (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Div Res, 104 Marietta St,NW, Atlanta, GA USA. EM robert.a.eisenbeis@atl.frb.erg NR 0 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 22 IS 6-8 BP 1015 EP 1017 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00037-5 PG 3 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 121LP UT WOS:000076015500024 ER PT J AU Avery, RB Bostic, RW Samolyk, KA AF Avery, RB Bostic, RW Samolyk, KA TI The role of personal wealth in small business finance SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on the Economics of Small Business Finance CY MAY 22-23, 1997 CL NYU, NEW YORK, NY SP Berkley Ctr Entrepreneurial Studies, NYU, NYU, Salomon Ctr HO NYU DE small business; finance; collateral; guarantees; personal wealth ID CREDIT AB This paper provides new empirical evidence on the relationship between personal commitments and the allocation of small business credit. The data suggest that personal commitments are important for firms seeking certain types of loans. Guarantees are more prevalent than collateral and organization type (corporate versus noncorporate status) appears to be particularly important in determining commitment use. No systematic relationship is observed between commitment use and owner wealth. Personal commitments appear to be substitutes for business collateral, at least for lines of credit, while personal collateral and personal guarantees do not seem to substitute for each other. Personal commitments have generally become more important to small business lending since the late 1980s. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Fed Deposit Insurance Corp, Washington, DC 20429 USA. RP Bostic, RW (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. EM rbostic@frb.gov NR 18 TC 68 Z9 68 U1 1 U2 9 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 22 IS 6-8 BP 1019 EP 1061 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00016-8 PG 43 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 121LP UT WOS:000076015500025 ER PT J AU Wolken, JD AF Wolken, JD TI "New" data sources for research on small business finance SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on the Economics of Small Business Finance CY MAY 22-23, 1997 CL NYU, NEW YORK, NY SP Berkley Ctr Entrepreneurial Studies, NYU, NYU, Salomon Ctr HO NYU DE small business finance; small business data; small business loans AB This paper describes three new sources of data on small business finances: Bank Call Report data on small business lending, the 1995 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), and the 1993 National Survey of Small Business Finances (NSSBF). Each of these data sources offers publicly available micro-level data useful for examining a wide variety of issues and questions about small business finances. A number of studies which have utilized these data are cited and information on how to access these data is provided. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Res Board, Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Wolken, JD (reprint author), Fed Res Board, Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Mail Stop 149,20th & C Sts NW, Washington, DC 20551 USA. EM jwolken@frb.gov NR 18 TC 10 Z9 10 U1 1 U2 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 22 IS 6-8 BP 1067 EP 1076 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00015-6 PG 10 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 121LP UT WOS:000076015500027 ER PT J AU Fenn, GW Liang, N AF Fenn, GW Liang, N TI New resources and new ideas: Private equity for small businesses SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on the Economics of Small Business Finance CY MAY 22-23, 1997 CL NYU, NEW YORK, NY SP Berkley Ctr Entrepreneurial Studies, NYU, NYU, Salomon Ctr HO NYU DE private equity; venture capital; angel investors; small business investment companies (SBICs) ID INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERINGS; VENTURE; COMPANIES; ANGELS AB Private equity for rapidly growing small business is raised primarily from the organized venture capital market and the informal market, comprised of high-net worth individuals or "angel" investors. We discuss commercially and publicly available data on private equity, the research findings of studies that use these data, and some of the more important questions that the available data have been unable to address. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Liang, N (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Mail Stop 89, Washington, DC 20551 USA. EM mljn100@frb.gov NR 15 TC 7 Z9 8 U1 1 U2 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 22 IS 6-8 BP 1077 EP 1084 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00042-9 PG 8 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 121LP UT WOS:000076015500028 ER PT J AU Meyer, LH AF Meyer, LH TI The present and future roles of banks in small business finance SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on the Economics of Small Business Finance CY MAY 22-23, 1997 CL NYU, NEW YORK, NY SP Berkley Ctr Entrepreneurial Studies, NYU, NYU, Salomon Ctr HO NYU C1 New York Univ, Conference Small Business Finance, Board Governors, Fed Reserve Syst, New York, NY USA. RP Meyer, LH (reprint author), New York Univ, Conference Small Business Finance, Board Governors, Fed Reserve Syst, New York, NY USA. NR 0 TC 19 Z9 20 U1 0 U2 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 22 IS 6-8 BP 1109 EP 1116 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00019-3 PG 8 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 121LP UT WOS:000076015500032 ER PT J AU Kocherlakota, NR AF Kocherlakota, NR TI Money is memory SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Modeling Money and Studying Monetary Policy CY NOV, 1996 CL CORAL GABLES, FLORIDA SP Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Sch Business, Univ Miami ID INFORMATION ECONOMY; COMMUNICATION; CONSUMPTION; GAMES AB This paper examines the sets of feasible allocations in a large class of economic environments in which commitment is impossible (following Myerson [8], the standard definition of feasibility is adapted to take account of the lack of commitment). The environments feature either memory or money. Memory is defined as knowledge on the part of an agent of the full histories of all agents with whom he has had direct or indirect contact in the past. Money is defined as an object that does not enter utility or production functions, and is available in fixed supply. The main proposition is that any allocation that is feasible in an environment with money is also feasible in the same environment with memory. Depending on the environment, the converse may or may not be true. Hence, from a technological point of view, money is equivalent to a primitive form of memory. (C) 1998 Academic Press. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Res Dept, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. RP Kocherlakota, NR (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Res Dept, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. NR 16 TC 191 Z9 192 U1 2 U2 6 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 USA SN 0022-0531 J9 J ECON THEORY JI J. Econ. Theory PD AUG PY 1998 VL 81 IS 2 BP 232 EP 251 DI 10.1006/jeth.1997.2357 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 116GK UT WOS:000075715800002 ER PT J AU Green, EJ Zhou, RL AF Green, EJ Zhou, RL TI A rudimentary random-matching model with divisible money and prices SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Modeling Money and Studying Monetary Policy CY NOV, 1996 CL CORAL GABLES, FLORIDA SP Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Sch Business, Univ Miami ID SEARCH AB We consider a version of Kiyotaki and Wright's monetary search model in which agents can hold arbitrary amounts of divisible money. A continuum of stationary equilibria, indexed by the aggregate real money stock, exists with all trading occurring at a single price. There is always a maximum level of the real money stock consistent with existence of such an equilibrium. In the limit as trading becomes faster relative to discounting, any real money stock becomes feasible in such an equilibrium. In contrast to the original Kiyotaki-Wright model, higher equilibrium real money stocks unambiguously correspond to higher welfare in this costless-production environment. (C) 1998 Academic Press. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Res Dept, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. Univ Penn, Dept Econ, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. RP Green, EJ (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Res Dept, 90 Hennepin Ave, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. NR 13 TC 71 Z9 71 U1 0 U2 1 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 USA SN 0022-0531 J9 J ECON THEORY JI J. Econ. Theory PD AUG PY 1998 VL 81 IS 2 BP 252 EP 271 DI 10.1006/jeth.1997.2356 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 116GK UT WOS:000075715800003 ER PT J AU Kocherlakota, N Wallace, N AF Kocherlakota, N Wallace, N TI Incomplete record-keeping and optimal payment arrangements SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Modeling Money and Studying Monetary Policy CY NOV, 1996 CL CORAL GABLES, FLORIDA SP Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Sch Business, Univ Miami ID MONEY AB We study a random-matching, absence-of-double-coinsidence environment in which people cannot precommit and in which there are two imperfect ways to keep track of what other people have done in the past: money and a public record of all past actions that is updated with an average lag. We study how the magnitude of that lag affects the allocations that are optimal from among allocations that are stationary and feasible and that satisfy incentive constraints which arise from the absence of commitment and the imperfect ways of keeping track of what others have done in the past. (C) 1998 Academic Press. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. Penn State Univ, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Kocherlakota, N (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. NR 7 TC 62 Z9 63 U1 0 U2 1 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 USA SN 0022-0531 J9 J ECON THEORY JI J. Econ. Theory PD AUG PY 1998 VL 81 IS 2 BP 272 EP 289 DI 10.1006/jeth.1998.2396 PG 18 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 116GK UT WOS:000075715800004 ER PT J AU Chang, R AF Chang, R TI Credible monetary policy in an infinite horizon model: Recursive approaches SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Modeling Money and Studying Monetary Policy CY NOV, 1996 CL CORAL GABLES, FLORIDA SP Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Sch Business, Univ Miami ID REPEATED GAMES; TAXATION; INCOME; PLANS AB This paper develops recursive methods to study optimal and time consistent policy in dynamic models. We analyze a version of Calvo's 1978 monetary model and show that its time consistent outcomes can be completely characterized as the largest fixed point of either of two operators. Recursive application of these operators provides a computing algorithm which always converges to the set of time consistent outcomes. Finally, we obtain valuable information about the nature of time consistent outcomes: It is discovered, in particular, that all such outcomes are Markovian. The methods obtained are intuitive and should be useful for many applications. (C) 1998 Academic Press. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. RP Chang, R (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. NR 26 TC 26 Z9 26 U1 0 U2 0 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 USA SN 0022-0531 J9 J ECON THEORY JI J. Econ. Theory PD AUG PY 1998 VL 81 IS 2 BP 431 EP 461 DI 10.1006/jeth.1998.2395 PG 31 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 116GK UT WOS:000075715800009 ER PT J AU Chari, VV Christiano, LJ Eichelbaum, M AF Chari, VV Christiano, LJ Eichelbaum, M TI Expectation traps and discretion SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Modeling Money and Studying Monetary Policy CY NOV, 1996 CL CORAL GABLES, FLORIDA SP Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Sch Business, Univ Miami ID MONETARY-POLICY; INFLATION; REPUTATION; RULES; PLANS AB We develop a dynamic model with optimizing private agents and a benevolent, optimizing monetary authority that cannot commit to future policies. We characterize the set of sustainable equilibria and discuss the implications for institutional reform. We show that there are equilibria in which the monetary authority pursues inflationary policies because that is what private agents expect. We call such equilibria expectation traps. Alternative institutional arrangements for the conduct of monetary policy which impose limited forms of commitment on the policymaker can eliminate expectation traps. (C) 1998 Academic Press. C1 Univ Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. Northwestern Univ, Chicago, IL 60611 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, Chicago, IL USA. Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. RP Chari, VV (reprint author), Univ Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. NR 20 TC 35 Z9 38 U1 2 U2 2 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 USA SN 0022-0531 J9 J ECON THEORY JI J. Econ. Theory PD AUG PY 1998 VL 81 IS 2 BP 462 EP 492 DI 10.1006/jeth.1998.2421 PG 31 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 116GK UT WOS:000075715800010 ER PT J AU Sniderman, MS AF Sniderman, MS TI Comparative financial systems - A conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, November 5-7, 1997 - Opening remarks SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article C1 Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. RP Sniderman, MS (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 30 IS 3 BP III EP IV PN 2 PG 2 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 108ZL UT WOS:000075296300001 ER PT J AU Braun, RA Evans, CL AF Braun, RA Evans, CL TI Seasonal solow residuals and christmas: A case for labor hoarding and increasing returns SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID BUSINESS-CYCLE THEORIES; UNITED-STATES; PROCYCLICAL PRODUCTIVITY; AGGREGATE FLUCTUATIONS; TIME-SERIES; EQUILIBRIUM; CONSUMPTION; MODELS C1 Int Univ Japan, Niigata, Japan. Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Chicago, IL USA. RP Braun, RA (reprint author), Int Univ Japan, Niigata, Japan. NR 44 TC 12 Z9 12 U1 1 U2 2 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 30 IS 3 BP 306 EP 330 DI 10.2307/2601103 PN 1 PG 25 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 108ZJ UT WOS:000075296100002 ER PT J AU Park, S Peristiani, S AF Park, S Peristiani, S TI Market discipline by thrift depositors SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID BANK AB This paper tests for the presence of depositor discipline by examining the effects of depository institutions' risk on the pricing and growth of uninsured deposits. The study analyzes a large panel of thrifts that includes detailed information on each firm's a deposit rate schedules, balance sheet composition, and financial condition. This information allows us to develop a time-consistent risk profile for thrifts. Our empirical findings support the presence of market discipline. Riskier thrifts are found to pay higher interest rates and attract smaller amounts of uninsured deposits. We also find that qualitative results are similar for fully insured deposits, although statistical significance is substantially lower. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Park, S (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 20 TC 68 Z9 70 U1 0 U2 2 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 30 IS 3 BP 347 EP 364 DI 10.2307/2601105 PN 1 PG 18 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 108ZJ UT WOS:000075296100004 ER PT J AU Ludvigson, S AF Ludvigson, S TI The channel of monetary transmission to demand: Evidence from the market for automobile credit SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID TIME-SERIES FACTS; POLICY; CONSUMPTION; INCOME AB In response to tight money, both consumer loans and consumption fall. I ask whether there is any causality running from loans to consumption by focussing on how the composition of automobile finance between bank and nonbank sources of credit changes in response to unanticipated innovations in monetary policy. The results indicate that contractionary monetary policy produces a statistically significant reduction in the relative supply of bank consumer loans, which in turn produces a decline in real consumption. The evidence therefore supports the existence of a credit channel of monetary transmission to aggregate consumption. Moreover, the nature of automobile finance is uniquely suited to identifying which of two possible subchannels of the broader credit channel is relatively more important, and suggests the results are more likely consistent with a bank lending channel than with a pure balance sheet channel. However, the findings also indicate that the quantitative effects of the lending channel on the aggregate economy, though precisely estimated, may be quite small. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Ludvigson, S (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 30 TC 10 Z9 10 U1 1 U2 2 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 30 IS 3 BP 365 EP 383 DI 10.2307/2601106 PN 1 PG 19 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 108ZJ UT WOS:000075296100005 ER PT J AU Rich, RW Butler, JS AF Rich, RW Butler, JS TI Disagreement as a measure of uncertainty SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID INFLATION UNCERTAINTY; ANTICIPATED INFLATION; EMPIRICAL-EVIDENCE; INTEREST-RATES; HETEROSKEDASTICITY; SURPRISES; MONEY AB This paper reexamines Bomberger's (1996) empirical support for the use of measured disagreement across survey respondents for the Livingston CPI series as a proxy for inflation uncertainty. We draw attention to violations of modeling assumptions for maximum likelihood estimation that result from the overlapping nature of the forecasts. Building upon the work of Rich, Raymond and Butler (1992), we employ a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation procedure and document that disagreement does not provide significant predictive content for inflation uncertainty after accounting for Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) effects in the data. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, Domest Res Funct, New York, NY 10045 USA. Vanderbilt Univ, Nashville, TN 37240 USA. RP Rich, RW (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, Domest Res Funct, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 25 TC 8 Z9 8 U1 1 U2 8 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 30 IS 3 BP 411 EP 419 DI 10.2307/2601109 PN 1 PG 9 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 108ZJ UT WOS:000075296100008 ER PT J AU Haubrich, JG Thomson, JB AF Haubrich, JG Thomson, JB TI Comparative financial systems - A conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, November 5-7, 1997 - Introduction SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article C1 Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. RP Haubrich, JG (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. NR 7 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 2 U2 2 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 30 IS 3 BP 421 EP 425 DI 10.2307/2601248 PN 2 PG 5 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 108ZL UT WOS:000075296300002 ER PT J AU Boyd, JH Chang, C Smith, BD AF Boyd, JH Chang, C Smith, BD TI Moral hazard under commercial and universal banking SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Comparative Financial Systems CY NOV 05-07, 1997 CL CLEVELAND, OHIO SP Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland ID FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION; DEBT CONTRACTS AB Many claims have been made about the potential benefits and the potential costs of adopting a system of universal banking in the United States. We evaluate these claims using a model where there is a moral hazard problem between banks and "borrowers," a moral hazard problem between banks and a deposit insurer, and a costly state verification problem. Under conditions we describe, allowing banks to take equity positions in firms strengthens their ability to extract surplus, and exacerbates problems of moral hazard. The incentives of universal banks to take equity positions will often be strongest when these problems are most severe. C1 Univ Minnesota, Carlson Sch Management, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. Univ Texas, Austin, TX 78712 USA. RP Boyd, JH (reprint author), Univ Minnesota, Carlson Sch Management, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. NR 30 TC 45 Z9 45 U1 6 U2 9 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 30 IS 3 BP 426 EP 468 DI 10.2307/2601249 PN 2 PG 43 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 108ZL UT WOS:000075296300003 ER PT J AU Strahan, PE AF Strahan, PE TI An international comparison of banks' equity returns - Comment SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID CORPORATE-OWNERSHIP; UNITED-STATES; JAPAN; DEBT C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Strahan, PE (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 17 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 1 U2 1 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 30 IS 3 BP 493 EP 499 DI 10.2307/2601252 PN 2 PG 7 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 108ZL UT WOS:000075296300006 ER PT J AU Berlin, M Mester, LJ AF Berlin, M Mester, LJ TI Intermediation and vertical integration SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Comparative Financial Systems CY NOV 05-07, 1997 CL CLEVELAND, OHIO SP Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland AB Competition in retail and wholesale funding markets affect the incentive for originators (like investment bankers) and fund managers (like mutual funds) to form integrated intermediaries (banks). Independent firms integrate both to produce higher-yielding, illiquid assets and to suppress competition in retail markets. In addition to the higher rerum on illiquid assets, three factors increase the incentive to integrate. First, homogeneous savers lower the costs of producing illiquid assets and increase competition in retail markers. Second, fund managers' market power in wholesale markets increases competition in retail markets. Finally, more certain aggregate savings reduces the costs of producing illiquid assets. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA USA. Univ Penn, Wharton Sch, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. RP Berlin, M (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA USA. NR 16 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 30 IS 3 BP 500 EP 519 DI 10.2307/2601253 PN 2 PG 20 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 108ZL UT WOS:000075296300007 ER PT J AU Green, EJ AF Green, EJ TI Payments systems with random matching and private information - Comment SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. RP Green, EJ (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 30 IS 3 BP 570 EP 572 DI 10.2307/2601257 PN 2 PG 3 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 108ZL UT WOS:000075296300011 ER PT J AU Ahmed, S AF Ahmed, S TI Comment on The Legal Environment, Banks, and Long-Run Economic Growth SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Int Finance Div, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Ahmed, S (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Int Finance Div, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 4 TC 8 Z9 8 U1 0 U2 2 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI HOBOKEN PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 30 IS 3 BP 614 EP 620 DI 10.2307/2601260 PN 2 PG 7 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 108ZL UT WOS:000075296300014 ER PT J AU Holmes, TJ AF Holmes, TJ TI The effect of state policies on the location of manufacturing: Evidence from state borders SO JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Article ID TO-WORK LAWS; INDUSTRY; GROWTH AB This paper provides new evidence that state policies play a role in the location of industry. The paper classifies a state as probusiness if it has a right-to-work law and antibusiness if it does not. The paper finds that, on average, there is a large, abrupt increase in manufacturing activity when one crosses a state border from an antibusiness state into a probusiness state. C1 Univ Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, Minneapolis, MN USA. RP Holmes, TJ (reprint author), Univ Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. NR 17 TC 188 Z9 188 U1 2 U2 12 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5801 S ELLIS AVENUE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 USA SN 0022-3808 J9 J POLIT ECON JI J. Polit. Econ. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 106 IS 4 BP 667 EP 705 DI 10.1086/250026 PG 39 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 106BM UT WOS:000075109900001 ER PT J AU Keane, MP Runkle, DE AF Keane, MP Runkle, DE TI Are financial analysts' forecasts of corporate profits rational? SO JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Article ID TIME-SERIES MODELS; EARNINGS FORECASTS; ACCOUNTING RESEARCH; PRICE CHANGES; EXPECTATIONS; INFORMATION; ERRORS; ASSOCIATION; SUPERIORITY; OVERREACT AB This paper develops generalized method-of-moments tests for the rationality of earnings per share forecasts made by individual stock analysts. We fail to reject the hypothesis of rationality as long as we take into account two complications: (1) the correlation in a given period of analysts' forecast errors in predicting earnings for firms in the same industry and (2) discretionary asset write-downs, which affect earnings but are intentionally ignored by analysts when they make earnings forecasts. Our results challenge earlier work by De Bondt and Thaler and by Abarbanell and Bernard that found irrationality in analysts' forecasts. C1 Univ Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, Minneapolis, MN USA. RP Keane, MP (reprint author), Univ Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. RI Keane, Michael/O-2840-2013 OI Keane, Michael/0000-0002-3918-1377 NR 37 TC 51 Z9 52 U1 7 U2 11 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5801 S ELLIS AVENUE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 USA SN 0022-3808 J9 J POLIT ECON JI J. Polit. Econ. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 106 IS 4 BP 768 EP 805 DI 10.1086/250029 PG 38 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 106BM UT WOS:000075109900004 ER PT J AU Carlstrom, CT Fuerst, TS AF Carlstrom, CT Fuerst, TS TI A note on the role of countercyclical monetary policy - Comment SO JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. Bowling Green State Univ, Bowling Green, OH 43403 USA. RP Carlstrom, CT (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. NR 2 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 1 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5801 S ELLIS AVENUE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 USA SN 0022-3808 J9 J POLIT ECON JI J. Polit. Econ. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 106 IS 4 BP 860 EP 866 DI 10.1086/250033 PG 7 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 106BM UT WOS:000075109900008 ER PT J AU Voith, R AF Voith, R TI Do suburbs need cities? SO JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE LA English DT Article ID WAGES; RENTS; CAPITALIZATION; QUALITY; AREAS; LIFE AB In this paper I examine the relationship between city and suburban growth over the last three decades for a sample of U.S. metropolitan areas. I develop a structural empirical model relating city income growth to suburban growth in income, population, and house values. The model allows for bidirectional effects of cities on suburbs and suburbs on cities, as well as for unobserved factors affecting both city and suburbs. The simultaneous, latent-variable model is identified using a combination of exclusion and covariance restrictions. Instrumental estimation results indicate that income growth in large cities enhances suburban growth; but income growth in small cities has little effect. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA 19106 USA. RP Voith, R (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA 19106 USA. EM voith@frbphil.org NR 25 TC 54 Z9 54 U1 0 U2 4 PU BLACKWELL PUBLISHERS PI MALDEN PA 350 MAIN STREET, STE 6, MALDEN, MA 02148 USA SN 0022-4146 J9 J REGIONAL SCI JI J. Reg. Sci. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 38 IS 3 BP 445 EP 464 DI 10.1111/0022-4146.00102 PG 20 WC Economics; Environmental Studies; Planning & Development SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Public Administration GA 111PP UT WOS:000075447100004 ER PT J AU Dueker, M Startz, R AF Dueker, M Startz, R TI Maximum-likelihood estimation of fractional cointegration with an application to US and Canadian bond rates SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID LONG-MEMORY; TIME-SERIES; VECTORS; MODELS AB We estimate a multivariate ARFIMA model to illustrate a cointegration testing methodology based on joint estimates of the fractional orders of integration of a cointegrating vector and its parent series. Previous cointegration tests relied on a two-step testing procedure and maintained the assumption in the second step that the parent series were known to have a unit root. In our empirical example of fractional cointegration, we illustrate how uncertainty regarding the order of integration of the parent series can be even more important than uncertainty regarding the order of integration of the cointegrating vector when testing for cointegration. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, St Louis, France. Univ Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. RP Dueker, M (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, St Louis, France. NR 18 TC 33 Z9 34 U1 0 U2 1 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 80 IS 3 BP 420 EP 426 DI 10.1162/003465398557654 PG 7 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA 107BW UT WOS:000075186900008 ER PT J AU Berger, AN Hannan, TH AF Berger, AN Hannan, TH TI The efficiency cost of market power in the banking industry: A test of the "quiet life" and related hypotheses SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID COMPETITION; PERFORMANCE; RIVALRY; FIRM AB Traditional concerns about concentration in product markets have centered on the social loss associated with the mispricing that occurs when market power is exercised. This paper focuses on a potentially greater loss from market power-a reduction in cost efficiency brought about by the lack of market discipline in concentrated markets. We employ data from the commercial banking industry, which produces very homogeneous products in multiple markets with differing degrees of market concentration. We find the estimated efficiency cost of concentration to be several times larger than the social loss from mispricing as traditionally measured by the welfare triangle. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Berger, AN (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 32 TC 150 Z9 153 U1 2 U2 12 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD AUG PY 1998 VL 80 IS 3 BP 454 EP 465 DI 10.1162/003465398557555 PG 12 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA 107BW UT WOS:000075186900012 ER PT J AU Neumark, D Wascher, W AF Neumark, D Wascher, W TI Is the time-series evidence on minimum wage effects contaminated by publication bias? SO ECONOMIC INQUIRY LA English DT Article AB Existing meta-analysis approaches to testing for publication bias are problematic when applied to time-series studies in economics, because changes in parameters can generate spurious Evidence of publication bias. We suggest an alternative test in such contexts, and apply it to time-series studies of the effects of minimum wages on employment. In contrast to recent research by Card and Krueger [1995a], we find that the results of published time-series studies of minimum wage effects ar-e consistent with structural change, and that the null hypothesis of no publication bias is not rejected by the evidence. (JEL B41, C22, C40, J23). C1 Michigan State Univ, Dept Econ, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA. Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Neumark, D (reprint author), Michigan State Univ, Dept Econ, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA. EM neumarkd@pilot.msu.edu; wwascher@frb.gov NR 18 TC 15 Z9 15 U1 0 U2 2 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 USA SN 0095-2583 J9 ECON INQ JI Econ. Inq. PD JUL PY 1998 VL 36 IS 3 BP 458 EP 470 PG 13 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 150EP UT WOS:000077650800012 ER PT J AU Haslag, JH AF Haslag, JH TI Monetary policy, banking, and growth SO ECONOMIC INQUIRY LA English DT Article AB There is ample empirical evidence suggesting that countries with high inflation tend to grow slower than countries with low inflation. Based on the regression evidence, the inflation-rate effect is fairly large; on average, per-capita real GDP grows between 1/4- and 3/4-percentage-points slower in a country in which the average inflation rate is 10% as compared with a country in which inflation is 0%. The purpose of this paper is to determine whether a model economy that is reasonably calibrated cart account for such large inflation-rate effects. The answer is yes. (JEL O41, E58). C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Dallas, TX 75201 USA. RP Haslag, JH (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Dallas, TX 75201 USA. EM joseph.haslag@frb.dal.org NR 26 TC 11 Z9 12 U1 0 U2 1 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 USA SN 0095-2583 J9 ECON INQ JI Econ. Inq. PD JUL PY 1998 VL 36 IS 3 BP 489 EP 500 PG 12 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 150EP UT WOS:000077650800014 ER PT J AU Edison, HJ Marquez, J AF Edison, HJ Marquez, J TI US monetary policy and econometric modeling: tales from the FOMC transcripts 1984-1991 SO ECONOMIC MODELLING LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 10th Anniversary Conference of the Tinbergen Institite CY MAY, 1997 CL AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS DE FOMC; econometric modeling; monetary policy; United States AB This paper uses the transcripts from the FOMC meetings to characterize the interactions between policymakers and macro models in the formulation of US monetary policy. We develop a taxonomy of these interactions and present two case studies. The first case focuses on the debate on the choice of monetary target and the second case focuses on the 1990/1991 recession. The analysis reveals that US monetary policy relies on models for information. Models give estimates of both the outlook and the response of the economy to policy changes. Models also evolve to recognize the changing context in which policymakers operate-exchange rate flexibility, financial deregulation, and international trade agreements. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Edison, HJ (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RI Edison, Hali/A-7550-2009 NR 12 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0264-9993 J9 ECON MODEL JI Econ. Model. PD JUL PY 1998 VL 15 IS 3 BP 411 EP 428 DI 10.1016/S0264-9993(98)00020-0 PG 18 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 119PC UT WOS:000075904200008 ER PT J AU Chin, DM Miller, PJ AF Chin, DM Miller, PJ TI Fixed vs. floating exchange rates: A dynamic general equilibrium analysis SO EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article DE dynamic general equilibrium; exchange rate regimes; monetary policy AB In this study we contrast fixed and floating exchange rate regimes in a dynamic general equilibrium model. We find that the fundamental difference in the regimes is in the courses they imply for monetary policies. Because of policy coordination requirements, a tighter monetary policy needed to maintain a fixed exchange rate may necessitate a tightening in budget policy as well. We show that under some initial conditions voters or a social planner will favor one regime, but under other conditions they will favor the other. However, the choices of voters and a social planner are almost diametrically opposed. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. RP Miller, PJ (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, 250 Marquette Ave, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. NR 9 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0014-2921 J9 EUR ECON REV JI Eur. Econ. Rev. PD JUL PY 1998 VL 42 IS 7 BP 1221 EP 1249 DI 10.1016/S0014-2921(97)00069-X PG 29 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 107YU UT WOS:000075239200003 ER PT J AU Hewings, GJD Sonis, M Guo, JM Israilevich, PR Schindler, GR AF Hewings, GJD Sonis, M Guo, JM Israilevich, PR Schindler, GR TI The hollowing-out process in the Chicago economy, 1975-2011 SO GEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS LA English DT Article AB The metropolitan economy of Chicago has experienced a significant transformation in its economic structure over the past twenty years. Using a method for extraction of input-output tables that has been described elsewhere, it has been possible to produce an economic photograph of the changes in the Chicago region, annually, for the period 1975-2011. This paper explores the nature of these structural changes through examination of the changes in the composition of the Leontief multipliers and changes in the economic landscapes interpreted through application of the multiplier product matrix. The resulting picture, at the nine-sector level of detail, reveals a hollowing-out process, with intrametropolitan dependence replaced by dependence on sources of supply and demand outside the region. Furthermore, the analysis reveals a complex internal transformation, as dependence on locally sourced manufacturing inputs is replaced by dependence on local service activities. C1 Univ Illinois, Reg Econ Applicat Lab, Urbana, IL 61801 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, Chicago, IL USA. Fed Reserve Bank, Chicago, IL USA. RP Hewings, GJD (reprint author), Univ Illinois, Reg Econ Applicat Lab, Urbana, IL 61801 USA. RI Hewings, Geoffrey/B-2058-2014 NR 26 TC 28 Z9 30 U1 0 U2 4 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0016-7363 J9 GEOGR ANAL JI Geogr. Anal. PD JUL PY 1998 VL 30 IS 3 BP 217 EP 233 PG 17 WC Geography SC Geography GA ZY026 UT WOS:000074579200002 ER PT J AU Marquez, J AF Marquez, J TI Review of PcGive Professional 9.0 for Windows SO JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS LA English DT Software Review C1 Fed Reserve Board, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Marquez, J (reprint author), Fed Reserve Board, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 4 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 3 PU JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD PI W SUSSEX PA BAFFINS LANE CHICHESTER, W SUSSEX PO19 1UD, ENGLAND SN 0883-7252 J9 J APPL ECONOM JI J. Appl. Econom. PD JUL-AUG PY 1998 VL 13 IS 4 BP 411 EP 420 DI 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1255(199807/08)13:4<411::AID-JAE494>3.0.CO;2-# PG 10 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA 114CH UT WOS:000075591200005 ER PT J AU Geweke, J AF Geweke, J TI Real and spurious long-memory properties of stock-market data - Comment SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Minnesota, Dept Econ, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. RP Geweke, J (reprint author), Univ Minnesota, Dept Econ, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. NR 5 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC PI ALEXANDRIA PA 1429 DUKE ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 USA SN 0735-0015 J9 J BUS ECON STAT JI J. Bus. Econ. Stat. PD JUL PY 1998 VL 16 IS 3 BP 269 EP 271 PG 3 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Mathematics GA ZW721 UT WOS:000074441100003 ER PT J AU Filardo, AJ Gordon, SF AF Filardo, AJ Gordon, SF TI Business cycle durations SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS LA English DT Article DE business cycles; Markov switching; conditional expected durations; Gibbs sampling; probit model ID TIME-SERIES SUBJECT; BAYES INFERENCE; REGRESSION; ERRORS; MODELS; GNP AB While the development of Markov switching extensions to time series modeling has provided a useful way of characterizing business cycle dynamics, these models are not without their weaknesses. One problem is posed by the fact that since the state space for the unobserved state variables grows with the sample size, sampling distributions for maximum-likelihood estimates are difficult to establish. A second problem is that since the transition probabilities are constant, the conditional expected duration of a phase is constant. This paper extends the model so that the information contained in leading indicator data can be used to forecast transition probabilities. These transition probabilities can then be used to calculate expected durations. The model is applied to US data to evaluate its ability to explain observed business cycle durations. The technical problems encountered with classical techniques are avoided by using Bayesian methods. Gibbs sampling techniques are used to calculate expected posterior durations. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Kansas City, MO 64198 USA. Univ Laval, Dept Econ, Quebec City, PQ G1K 7P4, Canada. Univ Laval, CREFA, Quebec City, PQ G1K 7P4, Canada. RP Filardo, AJ (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Kansas City, MO 64198 USA. NR 35 TC 58 Z9 61 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA PI LAUSANNE PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND SN 0304-4076 J9 J ECONOMETRICS JI J. Econom. PD JUL PY 1998 VL 85 IS 1 BP 99 EP 123 DI 10.1016/S0304-4076(97)00096-1 PG 25 WC Economics; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA ZT891 UT WOS:000074138400005 ER PT J AU Zhou, CS AF Zhou, CS TI Dynamic portfolio choice and asset pricing with differential information SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article DE asset pricing; multi-asset; dynamic; differential information ID RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS; ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION; MARKET EQUILIBRIUM; NOISE; AGGREGATION; CONVERGENCE; VARIABLES; BEHAVIOR AB This paper presents a multi-asset intertemporal general equilibrium model of portfolio selection and asset pricing with differential information. A method of Sargent (1991) is used to resolve the 'infinite regress' problem in information extraction and to derive a rational expectations equilibrium. The model shows that rational investors trade stocks strategically according to their perceptions about economic states and provides a rationale for investors to hold less than perfectly diversified portfolios. The information distribution among investors has an important effect on stock prices, welfare, and the investment opportunities of investors; The model helps explain a number of interesting financial regularities such as imperfect portfolio diversification and home bias. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. C1 Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Zhou, CS (reprint author), Univ Calif Riverside, Anderson Grad Sch Management, Riverside, CA 92521 USA. NR 21 TC 10 Z9 10 U1 2 U2 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD JUL PY 1998 VL 22 IS 7 BP 1027 EP 1051 DI 10.1016/S0165-1889(97)00099-7 PG 25 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZV916 UT WOS:000074354600003 ER PT J AU Voith, R AF Voith, R TI Parking, transit, and employment in a central business district SO JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID CONGESTION; LAND AB In this paper we present a general equilibrium model to examine the role of parking and transit subsidy policy on the size of a central business district (CBD), CBD land values, and the market shares of cars and transit. The three main features of the model are: (1) agglomeration economies increase continuously with labor market size; (2) congestion arises from auto use only; transit is noncongestible; and (3) locational equilibrium is maintained in the sense that firms and individuals cannot reduce costs or increase utility by moving, given equilibrium prices and city size. We derive the conditions under which parking taxes can be levied and used to subsidize transit and increase equilibrium CBD size and land values. We compute an optimal parking tax that maximizes CBD size and land values and derive relationships among parking taxes, transit use, and congestion. We find nonmonotonic relationships among parking taxes, land values, and transit use. (C) 1998 Academic Press. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Philadelphia, Res Dept, Philadelphia, PA 19106 USA. RP Voith, R (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Philadelphia, Res Dept, 10 Independence Mall, Philadelphia, PA 19106 USA. NR 17 TC 13 Z9 15 U1 2 U2 4 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 USA SN 0094-1190 J9 J URBAN ECON JI J. Urban Econ. PD JUL PY 1998 VL 44 IS 1 BP 43 EP 58 DI 10.1006/juec.1997.2059 PG 16 WC Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA ZZ691 UT WOS:000074757000003 ER PT J AU Bradbury, KL Case, KE Mayer, CJ AF Bradbury, KL Case, KE Mayer, CJ TI School quality and Massachusetts enrollment shifts in the context of tax limitations SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Like most states, Massachusetts underwent a large shift in public school enrollments between the 1980s and 1990s, requiring a number of sizable fiscal and educational adjustments by individual school districts. Between 1980 and 1989, the number of students in kindergarten through grade 12 fell 21 percent, from 1.04 million to 825,000. As children of baby boomers reached school age, the picture changed and enrollments grew more than 90,000 over the next seven years. These aggregate trends gloss over even more marked shifts at the local level. This article investigates the degree to which the constraints of Proposition 2 1/2, and other factors such as demographic and economic shifts and differences in school quality, affected the adjustments that both local governments and households made to a demographically driven turnaround in enrollment growth. The authors report three major findings: (1) Net public school enrollment changes are positively related to differences across communities in school quality. (2) Shifts in enrollments were much more pronounced in the 1990s, when aggregate enrollments were rising and the economy was improving. (3) Proposition 2 1/2 appears to have significantly altered the pattern of enrollment changes, with families with students moving to districts less constrained by this property tax limit. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. Wellesley Coll, Wellesley, MA 02181 USA. RP Bradbury, KL (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 12 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JUL-AUG PY 1998 BP 3 EP + PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 113FY UT WOS:000075540800001 ER PT J AU Tootell, GMB AF Tootell, GMB TI Globalization and US inflation SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID RATE PASS-THROUGH; MARKET SHARE; HYSTERESIS; POLICY; NAIRU AB Estimates of the Phillips curve suggest that the low level of unemployment over the last few years should have produced a fairly significant increase in the rate of inflation, yet inflation has continued to fall. Some take this occurrence as evidence that the NAIRU has declined. Others argue that special factors, such as recent movements of employee health coverage to health maintenance organizations, have temporarily masked the increase in inflation. Perhaps the most widely cited explanation for the surprisingly good inflation performance of late concerns the increasing sensitivity of the U.S. economy to foreign economic conditions; specifically, many have argued that since capacity utilization abroad has been slack in recent years, U.S, inflation has remained mild. This study uses a variety of approaches to examine whether U.S. inflation depends on foreign, rather than domestic, capacity constraints. The author shows that foreign capacity plays little, if any, role in the determination of U.S. inflation independent of any role it might play in the determination of U.S. capacity utilization. He cautions that anyone who believes in a world where we no longer need worry about domestic capacity constraints will eventually be rudely awakened by data that suggest otherwise. His results indicate that the Phillips curve, relating some measure of U.S, capacity utilization to U.S. inflation, is alive, if ailing a bit, even as the world gets more integrated. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Tootell, GMB (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 15 TC 19 Z9 19 U1 0 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JUL-AUG PY 1998 BP 21 EP + PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 113FY UT WOS:000075540800002 ER PT J AU Kimball, RC AF Kimball, RC TI Economic profit and performance measurement in banking SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Successful bank operation requires managers to weigh complex trade-offs between growth, return, and risk. In recent years banks increasingly have adopted innovative performance metrics based on the concept of economic profit, rather than accounting earnings, to assist managers in making such difficult and complex decisions. Banks hope in this way to elicit better decision-making by managers and also to align managerial behavior more closely with the interests of shareholders. This article analyzes the use of economic profit for measuring the performance of banks, focusing on the allocation of equity capital to products, customers, and businesses. The author reviews the use of economic profit to evaluate performance, to price transactions, and to reward managers. He describes in detail one performance measurement and incentive system and then goes on to discuss the shortcomings of performance metrics founded on economic profit, which may distort banks' investment and operating decision-making. He concludes that banks need to recognize the ambiguities of such calculations and be prepared to create and apply multiple specialized performance measures. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. Babson Coll, Olin Grad Sch Business, Babson Pk, MA 02157 USA. RP Kimball, RC (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 16 TC 6 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JUL-AUG PY 1998 BP 35 EP + PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 113FY UT WOS:000075540800003 ER PT J AU Diebold, FX Ohanian, LE Berkowitz, J AF Diebold, FX Ohanian, LE Berkowitz, J TI Dynamic equilibrium economies: A framework for comparing models and data SO REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES LA English DT Article ID BUSINESS-CYCLE MODELS; CALIBRATION; POLICY; BOOTSTRAP; OUTPUT; GROWTH AB We propose a constructive, multivariate framework for assessing agreement between (generally misspecified) dynamic equilibrium models and data, which enables a complete second-order comparison of the dynamic properties of models and data. We use bootstrap algorithms to evaluate the significance of deviations between models and data, and we use goodness-of-fit criteria to produce estimators that optimize economically-relevant loss functions. We provide a detailed illustrative application to modelling the U.S. cattle cycle. C1 Univ Penn, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. Univ Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. RP Diebold, FX (reprint author), Univ Penn, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. NR 50 TC 50 Z9 51 U1 4 U2 19 PU REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES LTD PI OXFORD PA C/O BASIL BLACKWELL LTD, 108 COWLEY RD, PO BOX 805, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX4 1JF SN 0034-6527 J9 REV ECON STUD JI Rev. Econ. Stud. PD JUL PY 1998 VL 65 IS 3 BP 433 EP 451 DI 10.1111/1467-937X.00052 PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 110HE UT WOS:000075374700003 ER PT J AU Schreft, SL Smith, BD AF Schreft, SL Smith, BD TI The effects of open market operations in a model of intermediation and growth SO REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES LA English DT Article ID ENDOGENOUS GROWTH; CAPITAL STOCK; CURRENCY; MONEY AB This article presents a monetary growth model where spatial separation and limited communication create a role for banks. Monetary policy interacts with the financial system's liquidity provision to affect the existence, multiplicity, and dynamical properties of equilibria. Moderate levels of risk aversion and tight monetary policy can lead to multiple steady states. Dynamical equilibria can be indeterminate, with oscillatory paths. Thus financial market frictions are a source of indeterminacies and endogenous volatility. Under plausible conditions, tight monetary policy raises the nominal interest rate and inflation rate and reduces long run output. Thus, a central bank's liquidity provision can promote growth. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Kansas City, Kansas City, KS USA. Univ Texas, Austin, TX 78712 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. RP Schreft, SL (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Kansas City, Kansas City, KS USA. NR 44 TC 27 Z9 27 U1 1 U2 8 PU REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES LTD PI OXFORD PA C/O BASIL BLACKWELL LTD, 108 COWLEY RD, PO BOX 805, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX4 1JF SN 0034-6527 J9 REV ECON STUD JI Rev. Econ. Stud. PD JUL PY 1998 VL 65 IS 3 BP 519 EP 550 DI 10.1111/1467-937X.00056 PG 32 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 110HE UT WOS:000075374700007 ER PT J AU Kasa, K AF Kasa, K TI Optimal policy with limited commitment SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article DE time inconsistency; frequency-domain optimization ID RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS; ECONOMY AB This paper uses Whiteman's (1986) frequency-domain optimization methodology to parameterize the commitment horizon in a standard rational expectations policy design model. It is shown that the commitment horizon can be estimated by running (restricted) regressions of the policy-maker's instrument variable on past values of its target variable. The results are applied to US and German monetary policy. Assuming the monetary authority attempts to stabilize inflation using a Federal Funds-like interest rate as an instrument, the results point to a 1-month ahead commitment horizon for the US Federal Reserve, and to a 12-month ahead commitment horizon for the German Bundesbank. However, these horizons are estimated imprecisely. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, Dept Res, San Francisco, CA 94120 USA. RP Kasa, K (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, Dept Res, POB 7702, San Francisco, CA 94120 USA. NR 16 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD JUN PY 1998 VL 22 IS 6 BP 887 EP 910 DI 10.1016/S0165-1889(97)00089-4 PG 24 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZQ973 UT WOS:000073922000005 ER PT J AU Cassou, SP Lansing, KJ AF Cassou, SP Lansing, KJ TI Optimal fiscal policy, public capital, and the productivity slowdown SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article DE fiscal policy; infrastructure; growth; public investment ID OPTIMAL TAXATION; ENDOGENOUS GROWTH; BUSINESS-CYCLE; OPTIMAL TAX; MODEL; INVESTMENT; ECONOMY; INCOME AB This paper develops a quantitative theoretical model for the optimal provision of public capital. We show that the ratio of public to private capital in the US economy since 1925 evolves in a manner that is broadly consistent with an optimal transition path derived from a simple growth model. The model is used to quantify the conditions under which an increase in the stock of public capital is desirable and to investigate the degree to which nonoptimal fiscal policies can account for the US productivity slowdown. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Dept Res, Cleveland, OH 44101 USA. Kansas State Univ, Dept Econ, Manhattan, KS 66506 USA. RP Lansing, KJ (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Dept Res, POB 6387, Cleveland, OH 44101 USA. NR 54 TC 35 Z9 35 U1 0 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD JUN PY 1998 VL 22 IS 6 BP 911 EP 935 DI 10.1016/S0165-1889(97)00083-3 PG 25 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZQ973 UT WOS:000073922000006 ER PT J AU Yeager, TJ AF Yeager, TJ TI Government, taxation, coercion, and ideology: A comment on Yeager - Reply SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Fed Reserve Bank St Louis, St Louis, MO 63166 USA. RP Yeager, TJ (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank St Louis, 411 Locust St, St Louis, MO 63166 USA. RI Yeager, Tim/F-3306-2010 NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS PI NEW YORK PA 40 WEST 20TH STREET, NEW YORK, NY 10011-4211 USA SN 0022-0507 J9 J ECON HIST JI J. Econ. Hist. PD JUN PY 1998 VL 58 IS 2 BP 521 EP 524 PG 4 WC Economics; History; History Of Social Sciences SC Business & Economics; History; Social Sciences - Other Topics GA ZV010 UT WOS:000074259300010 ER PT J AU Dwyer, GP AF Dwyer, GP TI A history of corporate finance. SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY LA English DT Book Review C1 Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. Clemson Univ, Clemson, SC 29631 USA. RP Dwyer, GP (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS PI NEW YORK PA 40 WEST 20TH STREET, NEW YORK, NY 10011-4211 USA SN 0022-0507 J9 J ECON HIST JI J. Econ. Hist. PD JUN PY 1998 VL 58 IS 2 BP 605 EP 607 PG 3 WC Economics; History; History Of Social Sciences SC Business & Economics; History; Social Sciences - Other Topics GA ZV010 UT WOS:000074259300083 ER PT J AU Schuh, S AF Schuh, S TI Industrial evolution in developing countries: Micro patterns of turnover, productivity, and market structure. SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE LA English DT Book Review C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Schuh, S (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0022-0515 J9 J ECON LIT JI J. Econ. Lit. PD JUN PY 1998 VL 36 IS 2 BP 946 EP 948 PG 3 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZW732 UT WOS:000074442200014 ER PT J AU Osler, CL AF Osler, CL TI Short-term speculators and the puzzling behaviour of exchange rates SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE foreign exchange market; exchange rates; speculation; asset pricing ID FINANCIAL-MARKETS; RANDOM-WALK; TESTS; FLUCTUATIONS; MODELS AB This paper shows that rational short-term speculative activity transforms exchange rates' response to shocks. Transitory shocks will have a permanent impact on exchange rates when such speculators are active, and the impact of shocks will be smoothed. The model may help explain the observed extended response of exchange rates to sterilized intervention. Further, the model suggests that exchange rate fundamentals may be properly identified even when those variables fail to forecast better than a random walk. Finally, the model could help explain why exchange rates closely resemble a random walk while most fundamentals do not follow such a process. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, Res & Market Anal, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Osler, CL (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, Res & Market Anal, 33 Liberty St, New York, NY 10045 USA. EM carol.osler@ny.frb.org NR 38 TC 15 Z9 15 U1 0 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD JUN PY 1998 VL 45 IS 1 BP 37 EP 57 DI 10.1016/S0022-1996(97)00024-X PG 21 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZZ793 UT WOS:000074767700002 ER PT J AU Stark, T Croushore, D AF Stark, T Croushore, D TI Evaluating McCallum's rule when monetary policy matters SO JOURNAL OF MACROECONOMICS LA English DT Article AB This paper provides new evidence on the usefulness of McCallum's proposed rule for monetary policy. The rule targets nominal GDP using the monetary base as the instrument. We analyze the rule using three very different economic models to see if the rule works well in different environments. Our results suggest that while the rule leads to lower inflation than there has been over the last 30 years, instability problems suggest that the rule should be modified to feed back on the growth rate of nominal GDP rather than the level. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA 19106 USA. RP Stark, T (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA 19106 USA. NR 18 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 1 U2 2 PU LOUISIANA STATE UNIV PR PI BATON ROUGE PA BATON ROUGE, LA 70893 USA SN 0164-0704 J9 J MACROECON JI J. Macroecon. PD SUM PY 1998 VL 20 IS 3 BP 451 EP 485 DI 10.1016/S0164-0704(98)00068-8 PG 35 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZZ237 UT WOS:000074709300002 ER PT J AU Duca, JV VanHoose, DD AF Duca, JV VanHoose, DD TI The rise of goods-market competition and the decline in wage indexation: A macroeconomic approach SO JOURNAL OF MACROECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID INFLATION UNCERTAINTY; MULTISECTOR ECONOMY; MONEY; CONTRACTS; RIGIDITY; POLICY; LINK AB This paper shows how heterogeneity in wage-setting and a link between goods-market competition and nominal wage indexation can arise in a multisector economy. By raising the price elasticity of demand, increased goods-market competition makes labor demand and equilibrium employment less sensitive to aggregate demand shocks, thereby reducing the incentive to index. We develop a proxy for the aggregate degree of goods-market competition. Along with inflation risk and supply shock variance measures, this proxy is statistically and economically significant in explaining changes over 1958-95 in the share of workers under contract who are covered by indexation clauses. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Dallas, Dallas, TX 75201 USA. Univ Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL USA. RP Duca, JV (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Dallas, Dallas, TX 75201 USA. NR 26 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 2 U2 5 PU LOUISIANA STATE UNIV PR PI BATON ROUGE PA BATON ROUGE, LA 70893 USA SN 0164-0704 J9 J MACROECON JI J. Macroecon. PD SUM PY 1998 VL 20 IS 3 BP 579 EP 598 DI 10.1016/S0164-0704(98)00073-1 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZZ237 UT WOS:000074709300007 ER PT J AU Stevens, GVG AF Stevens, GVG TI Exchange rates and foreign direct investment: A note SO JOURNAL OF POLICY MODELING LA English DT Article AB In "Exchange Rates and Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," Kenneth Froot and Jeremy Stein (1991) develop a new finance-based theory to answer an old question-the relationship, if any, between the flow of foreign direct investment and the exchange rate. Their theory, based on the possibility that a foreign firm's borrowing opportunities for financing a U.S. acquisition may be a function of its net worth in dollars, implies a negative relationship between a dollar appreciation and direct investment inflows into the United States. Empirically, the authors find statistically significant evidence of the implied negative relationship for quarterly and annual time series regressions, over the period 1973-88. The major purpose of this note is to show that this empirical support for the theory is weak. The authors' regressions show evidence of serious instability, and the significant negative relationship between direct investment inflows and the value of the dollar disappears for important subperiods of the 1973-88 period and for the sample period extended through 1991. (C) 1998 Society for Policy Modeling. Published by Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Stevens, GVG (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 11 TC 16 Z9 17 U1 0 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0161-8938 J9 J POLICY MODEL JI J. Policy Model. PD JUN PY 1998 VL 20 IS 3 BP 393 EP 401 DI 10.1016/S0161-8938(97)00007-0 PG 9 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YM038 UT WOS:000071021700005 ER PT J AU Bohn, JG AF Bohn, JG TI Managing for solvency and profitability in life and health insurance companies SO JOURNAL OF RISK AND INSURANCE LA English DT Book Review C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Bohn, JG (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER RISK INSURANCE ASSOC, INC PI MT VERNON PA C/O CHASE COMMUNICATIONS, STEVE ACUNTO, BOX 9001, MT VERNON, NY 10552 USA SN 0022-4367 J9 J RISK INSUR JI J. Risk Insur. PD JUN PY 1998 VL 65 IS 2 BP 352 EP 354 DI 10.2307/253546 PG 3 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA 116NG UT WOS:000075731000013 ER PT J AU Hooker, MA Alexander, WE AF Hooker, MA Alexander, WE TI Estimating the demand for irrigation water in the Central Valley of California SO JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION LA English DT Article DE water demand; water markets; irrigation; surface water ID PRICE; TRANSACTIONS; AGRICULTURE; DRAINAGE; COSTS; MODEL AB This paper computes estimates of the demand for surface irrigation water directly from disaggregated profit functions for fields in the San Joaquin Valley of California. It finds that treating delivered surface water and pumped ground water as separate, imperfectly substitutable inputs to production matters a great deal. We find substantial ranges of inelastic demand for delivered water, and thresholds across which demand then becomes highly elastic. The results imply that moves toward freer water markets could lead to large quantities reallocated from agriculture to urban uses in the Western U.S., but would require large price increases and would induce extensive ground water mining and major changes in cropping patterns. While these results are dependent on our particular model and simplifying assumptions, evidence exists that they may be robust. C1 Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Capital One Corp, Vienna, VA 22042 USA. RP Hooker, MA (reprint author), Fed Reserve Board, Mail Stop 71,20th & C St NW, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 15 TC 12 Z9 12 U1 0 U2 10 PU AMER WATER RESOURCES ASSOC PI HERNDON PA 950 HERNDON PARKWAY SUITE 300, HERNDON, VA 20170-5531 USA SN 0043-1370 J9 J AM WATER RESOUR AS JI J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. PD JUN PY 1998 VL 34 IS 3 BP 497 EP 505 DI 10.1111/j.1752-1688.1998.tb00949.x PG 9 WC Engineering, Environmental; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary; Water Resources SC Engineering; Geology; Water Resources GA ZT244 UT WOS:000074065200004 ER PT J AU Bassett, WF Fleming, MJ Rodrigues, AP AF Bassett, WF Fleming, MJ Rodrigues, AP TI How workers use 401(k) plans: The participation, contribution, and withdrawal decisions SO NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL LA English DT Article ID PRIVATE PENSION COVERAGE; DEFINED CONTRIBUTION; UNITED-STATES; IRAS; DECLINE; 1980S AB This paper examines how workers use 401(k)plans by examining their participation, contribution, and withdrawal decisions. Sixty-five percent of eligible workers participate in 401(k) plans. Employee participation rises with income, age, job tenure, and education. While participation also rises if the employer matches contributions, 401(k) participation does not grow with the rate of matching. When pension plan assets are withdrawn in lump-sum distributions before retirement, just 28 percent of distribution recipients (representing 56 percent of distribution assets) roll over the withdrawn funds into tax-qualified savings plans. Our findings suggest that many workers, particularly those with low incomes, do not use 401(k) plans to save for retirement. C1 Brown Univ, Dept Econ, Providence, RI 02912 USA. Fed Reserve Bank New York, Res & Market Anal Grp, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Bassett, WF (reprint author), Brown Univ, Dept Econ, Providence, RI 02912 USA. NR 46 TC 46 Z9 46 U1 1 U2 9 PU NATL TAX ASSN PI COLUMBUS PA 5310 EAST MAIN ST, COLUMBUS, OH 43213 USA SN 0028-0283 J9 NATL TAX J JI Natl. Tax J. PD JUN PY 1998 VL 51 IS 2 BP 263 EP 289 PG 27 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZU209 UT WOS:000074173200004 ER PT J AU Nelson, TR Mukherji, A AF Nelson, TR Mukherji, A TI Valuing biotechnology assets SO NATURE BIOTECHNOLOGY LA English DT News Item C1 Mayo Clin & Mayo Fdn, Carlson Sch Management, Minneapolis, MN 55905 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, Minneapolis, MN USA. RP Nelson, TR (reprint author), Mayo Clin & Mayo Fdn, Carlson Sch Management, Minneapolis, MN 55905 USA. NR 5 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 0 PU NATURE AMERICA INC PI NEW YORK PA 345 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1707 USA SN 1087-0156 J9 NAT BIOTECHNOL JI Nat. Biotechnol. PD JUN PY 1998 VL 16 IS 6 BP 525 EP 529 DI 10.1038/nbt0698-525 PG 5 WC Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology SC Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology GA ZR049 UT WOS:000073930600026 PM 9624681 ER PT J AU Gong, FX Gyourko, J AF Gong, FX Gyourko, J TI Evaluating the costs of increased lending in low and negative growth local housing markets SO REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID MORTGAGE DEFAULT; VALUATION; PROBABILITIES; PREPAYMENT; MODEL AB The literatures on default and the evaluation of low downpayment mortgage programs are extended by showing within an options pricing framework how differences in expected price appreciation trends across housing markets can influence default and, thereby, the cost of programs designed to increase mortgage liquidity. An equilibrium mortgage rate reflecting the risk premium required to compensate for expected default-related losses is endogenously determined within the model. Evaluating the entire process by which program losses arise strictly within a rigorous asset pricing framework has potentially important implications for policy evaluation, as the estimated present value of program losses in declining markets where expected default is high is quite sensitive to the choice of the discount rate. The implications of increased lending in low and negative price appreciation local markets are also investigated. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. Univ Penn, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. RP Gong, FX (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 19 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 2 PU AMER REAL ESTATE URBAN ECONOMICS ASSOC PI BLOOMINGTON PA INDIANA UNIV, SCHOOL BUSINESS, RM 428, 1309 E TENTH ST, BLOOMINGTON, IN 47405 USA SN 1080-8620 J9 REAL ESTATE ECON JI Real Estate Econ. PD SUM PY 1998 VL 26 IS 2 BP 207 EP 234 DI 10.1111/1540-6229.00744 PG 28 WC Business, Finance; Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA ZQ437 UT WOS:000073861600002 ER PT J AU Sunden, AE Surette, BJ AF Sunden, AE Surette, BJ TI Gender differences in the allocation of assets in retirement savings plans SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 110th Annual Meeting of the American-Economic-Association CY JAN 03-05, 1998 CL CHICAGO, ILLINOIS SP Amer Econ Assoc C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Sunden, AE (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, 20th C St NW,Stop 153, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 5 TC 156 Z9 157 U1 2 U2 17 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1998 VL 88 IS 2 BP 207 EP 211 PG 5 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZN561 UT WOS:000073658200039 ER PT J AU Kaminsky, GL Reinhart, CM AF Kaminsky, GL Reinhart, CM TI Financial crises in Asia and Latin America: Then and now SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 110th Annual Meeting of the American-Economic-Association CY JAN 03-05, 1998 CL CHICAGO, ILLINOIS SP Amer Econ Assoc C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Univ Maryland, Sch Publ Affairs, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. RP Kaminsky, GL (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RI Reinhart, Carmen/B-6997-2008 NR 5 TC 67 Z9 69 U1 1 U2 7 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1998 VL 88 IS 2 BP 444 EP 448 PG 5 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZN561 UT WOS:000073658200083 ER PT J AU Iyigun, MF Owen, AL AF Iyigun, MF Owen, AL TI Risk, entrepreneurship, and human-capital accumulation SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 110th Annual Meeting of the American-Economic-Association CY JAN 03-05, 1998 CL CHICAGO, ILLINOIS SP Amer Econ Assoc C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Hamilton Coll, Clinton, NY 13323 USA. RP Iyigun, MF (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 7 TC 58 Z9 59 U1 1 U2 11 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1998 VL 88 IS 2 BP 454 EP 457 PG 4 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZN561 UT WOS:000073658200085 ER PT J AU Freis, JH AF Freis, JH TI Continuity of contracts after the introduction of the euro: The United States response to European Economic and Monetary Union SO BUSINESS LAWYER LA English DT Article AB On January 1, 1999, a group of countries within the European Union will proceed with the third and final stage of Economic and Monetary Union-the introduction of the euro as a single currency. This event could affect continuity of contracts that contain a payment obligation denominated in a national currency to be replaced by the euro. This Article details and critiques legislative steps taken within the European Union and the states of California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania to ensure continuity of contracts. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Freis, JH (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 18 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 1 PU AMER BAR ASSOC PI CHICAGO PA 750 N LAKE SHORE DR, ATTN:ORDER FULFILLMENT, CHICAGO, IL 60611 USA SN 0007-6899 J9 BUS LAWYER JI Bus. Lawyer PD MAY PY 1998 VL 53 IS 3 BP 701 EP + PG 67 WC Law SC Government & Law GA 128AL UT WOS:000076383000002 ER PT J AU Lansing, KJ AF Lansing, KJ TI Optimal fiscal policy in a business cycle model with public capital SO CANADIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS-REVUE CANADIENNE D ECONOMIQUE LA English DT Article ID OPTIMAL TAXATION; GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM; GROWTH-MODEL; OPTIMAL TAX; FLUCTUATIONS; INVESTMENT; CONSUMPTION; ECONOMY; INCOME; RATES AB In this paper a real business cycle model with optimal tax rates, government borrowing, and productive public capital is analysed. A specification that allows for multiple stochastic shocks (to technology and preferences) can reproduce some key features describing the cyclical behaviour of postwar U.S. fiscal policy. The optimally chosen policy variables fluctuate substantially over the business cycle, but they do not operate like automatic stabilizers. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Cleveland, OH USA. Fed Reserve Bank, San Francisco, CA USA. RP Lansing, KJ (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Cleveland, OH USA. NR 56 TC 16 Z9 16 U1 0 U2 2 PU UNIV TORONTO PRESS INC PI TORONTO PA JOURNALS DIVISION, 5201 DUFFERIN ST, DOWNSVIEW, TORONTO, ON M3H 5T8, CANADA SN 0008-4085 J9 CAN J ECON JI Can. J. Econ.-Rev. Can. Econ. PD MAY PY 1998 VL 31 IS 2 BP 337 EP 364 DI 10.2307/136327 PG 28 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZW426 UT WOS:000074409800006 ER PT J AU Hutchison, MM Walsh, CE AF Hutchison, MM Walsh, CE TI The output-inflation tradeoff and Central Bank reform: Evidence from New Zealand SO ECONOMIC JOURNAL LA English DT Article AB The 1989 Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act provides a natural experiment in which the effects of institutional change on economic relationships can be studied. The Act set price stability as the single objective of monetary policy and gave the Bank great independence. Reforms of this nature may lead to a greater short-run output-inflation tradeoff by altering optimal stabilisation policy and wage indexation. Allowing for environments where 'learning' about the new regime is assumed to be rapid as well as slow, we find that a large rise in the New Zealand tradeoff has occurred since implementation of the Act. C1 Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA. Copenhagen Business Sch, Copenhagen, Denmark. Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, San Francisco, CA USA. RP Hutchison, MM (reprint author), Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA. NR 37 TC 21 Z9 23 U1 0 U2 3 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD OX4 1JF, OXON, ENGLAND SN 0013-0133 J9 ECON J JI Econ. J. PD MAY PY 1998 VL 108 IS 448 BP 703 EP 725 DI 10.1111/1468-0297.00310 PG 23 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZR637 UT WOS:000073998700007 ER PT J AU Higgins, M AF Higgins, M TI Demography, national savings, and international capital flows SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID DEPENDENCY RATES; GROWTH AB This paper addresses the relationship between age distribution, national savings and the current account balance. The results point to substantial demographic effects, with increases in both the youth and old-age dependency ratios associated with lower savings rates. They also point to differential effects on savings and investment, and thus to a role for demography in determining the current account balance. The estimated demographic effect on the current account balance exceeds six per cent of GDP over the last three decades for a number of countries and, given expected demographic trends, is likely to be substantially larger over the coming decades. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Higgins, M (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. EM matthew.higgins@ny.frb.org NR 32 TC 81 Z9 82 U1 1 U2 9 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI MALDEN PA COMMERCE PLACE, 350 MAIN ST, MALDEN 02148, MA USA SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1998 VL 39 IS 2 BP 343 EP 369 DI 10.2307/2527297 PG 27 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZL988 UT WOS:000073493600006 ER PT J AU Kasa, K AF Kasa, K TI Identifying the source of dynamics in disaggregated import data SO JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS LA English DT Article ID ADJUSTMENT COSTS; MARKET; DEMAND AB This paper uses Kennan's (1988) model to separately identify supply-side and demand-side dynamics in US import data. Dynamics arise from both autocorrelated shocks to supply-and demand-side fundamentals, and from lagged adjustment to these shocks. The model consists of a pair of partial adjustment models in which consumers and producers each attempt to follow a stochastic target level of imports subject to a quadratic adjustment cost. The model is applied ro quarterly data on US imports of seven narrowly defined commodities: Autos, Beer, Cameras, Wine, Cigars, Tea, and Soap. Two main results emerge. First, adjustment costs are important on both sides of the market. Second, supply-side adjustment costs are larger than demand-side adjustment costs. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. C1 Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, Res Dept MS 1130, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA. RP Kasa, K (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, Res Dept MS 1130, 101 Market St, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA. NR 14 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD PI W SUSSEX PA BAFFINS LANE CHICHESTER, W SUSSEX PO19 1UD, ENGLAND SN 0883-7252 J9 J APPL ECONOM JI J. Appl. Econom. PD MAY-JUN PY 1998 VL 13 IS 3 BP 305 EP 320 DI 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1255(199805/06)13:3<305::AID-JAE468>3.0.CO;2-U PG 16 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA ZV707 UT WOS:000074333000005 ER PT J AU Nandi, S AF Nandi, S TI How important is the correlation between returns and volatility in a stochastic volatility model? Empirical evidence from pricing and hedging in the S&P 500 index options market SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE stochastic; volatility; correlation; pricing; hedging ID CURRENCY OPTIONS; ARCH MODELS; VARIANCE AB This paper examines the importance of allowing for correlation between returns and volatility in a continuous time stochastic volatility option pricing model. Specifically it tests the closed-form stochastic volatility model of Heston (Review of Financial Studies 6, 1993, 327-343) that allows for non-zero correlation, in terms of pricing and hedging options on the S&P 500 index. It is found that non-zero correlation in the stochastic volatility model leads to significant improvements in mispricing of out-of-the-money options and overall pricing performance compared to if correlation is constrained to be zero. In terms of hedging, non-zero correlation results in significantly lower hedging errors for out-of-the-money options. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Dept Res, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. RP Nandi, S (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Dept Res, 104 Marietta St NW, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. EM saikat.u.nandi@atl.frb.org NR 33 TC 39 Z9 41 U1 2 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD MAY PY 1998 VL 22 IS 5 BP 589 EP 610 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00047-8 PG 22 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZY623 UT WOS:000074642200005 ER PT J AU Pizzi, MA Economopoulos, AJ O'Neill, HM AF Pizzi, MA Economopoulos, AJ O'Neill, HM TI An examination of the relationship between stock index cash and futures markets: A cointegration approach SO JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS LA English DT Article ID ERROR-CORRECTION; PRICE DISCOVERY; DYNAMICS C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Ursinus Coll, Collegeville, PA 19426 USA. RP Pizzi, MA (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 9 TC 26 Z9 28 U1 1 U2 5 PU JOHN WILEY & SONS INC PI NEW YORK PA 605 THIRD AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10158-0012 USA SN 0270-7314 J9 J FUTURES MARKETS JI J. Futures Mark. PD MAY PY 1998 VL 18 IS 3 BP 297 EP 305 DI 10.1002/(SICI)1096-9934(199805)18:3<297::AID-FUT4>3.0.CO;2-3 PG 9 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA ZJ055 UT WOS:000073175000004 ER PT J AU Tannenwald, R AF Tannenwald, R TI Devolution: The new federalism - An overview SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Colloquium on the Devolution Movement CY SEP, 1997 CL BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS SP Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Natl Tax Assoc C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Tannenwald, R (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 0 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAY-JUN PY 1998 BP 1 EP 12 PG 12 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZX170 UT WOS:000074486400002 ER PT J AU Minehan, CE AF Minehan, CE TI Opening remarks SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Minehan, CE (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAY-JUN PY 1998 BP V EP VI PG 2 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZX170 UT WOS:000074486400001 ER PT J AU Tannenwald, R AF Tannenwald, R TI Come the devolution, will states be able to respond? SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Some policymakers are concerned that many state governments will lack the fiscal capacity to assume devolved responsibilities, meet demands for traditional state services, and provide adequate aid for local governments. This study evaluates the fiscal capacity, fiscal need, and tax effort of the 50 states and the District of Columbia, following the approach developed by the U.S. Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations. The study also analyzes Census and NlPA statistics to gain insights into the capacity of states to meet the challenges and exploit the opportunities of the new federalism. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Tannenwald, R (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 30 TC 9 Z9 9 U1 0 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAY-JUN PY 1998 BP 53 EP + PG 22 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZX170 UT WOS:000074486400008 ER PT J AU Berkovec, JA Canner, GB Gabriel, SA Hannan, TH AF Berkovec, JA Canner, GB Gabriel, SA Hannan, TH TI Discrimination, competition, and loan performance in FHA mortgage lending SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article AB This study tests for the presence of prejudicial or "noneconomic" discrimination on the part of mortgage lenders by evaluating the performance of home mortgage loans. The approach differs from that of previous studies of loan performance in that it is based on the proposition that noneconomic discrimination should be more pronounced in less competitive lending environments, while statistical discrimination should not. Using a rich set of FHA-insured loan records and measures of local market concentration to proxy the competitive environment, we test for the prediction of better loan performance by minority borrowers relative to white borrowers in more concentrated markets. We argue that this approach substantially reduces the potential for omitted-variable bias that has cast a shadow on previous studies of lending discrimination. Results fail to reject the null hypothesis of no noneconomic discrimination. C1 Freddie Mac, Mclean, VA 22102 USA. Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Univ So Calif, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA. RP Berkovec, JA (reprint author), Freddie Mac, 8200 Jones Branch Dr, Mclean, VA 22102 USA. NR 22 TC 31 Z9 31 U1 1 U2 5 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD MAY PY 1998 VL 80 IS 2 BP 241 EP 250 DI 10.1162/003465398557483 PG 10 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA ZP159 UT WOS:000073722900006 ER PT J AU Bertaut, CC AF Bertaut, CC TI Stockholding behavior of US households: Evidence from the 1983-1989 survey of consumer finances SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID RISK AB Most households persistently invest in riskless assets but not stocks, and may do so because they perceive information required for market participation to be costly relative to expected benefits. In a Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM) increased risk aversion, income risk, and lower resources reduce the information expense sufficient to deter stockholding. Bivariate probit analysis using the 1983-1989 Survey of Consumer Finances shows that households with lower risk aversion, higher education, and greater wealth who were nonstockholders in 1983 had an increased conditional probability of entering by 1989, whereas 1983 stockholders with lower resources, more limited education, and greater risk aversion were more likely to be nonstockholders by 1989. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Bertaut, CC (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 28 TC 42 Z9 43 U1 1 U2 5 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD MAY PY 1998 VL 80 IS 2 BP 263 EP 275 DI 10.1162/003465398557500 PG 13 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA ZP159 UT WOS:000073722900008 ER PT J AU Hughes, JP Mester, LJ AF Hughes, JP Mester, LJ TI Bank capitalization and cost: Evidence of scale economies in risk management and signaling SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID SYSTEMS AB We amend the standard cost model to account for the role of financial capital in banking. The cost function is conditioned on the level of capital, but we model the demand for financial capital so that it can serve as a cushion against insolvency for potentially risk-averse managers and as a signal of risk for less informed outsiders. Scale economies are then computed without assuming that the bank chooses a level of capitalization that minimizes cost. We find evidence of substantial scale economies and that bank managers are risk averse and use the level of financial capital to signal the level of risk. C1 Rutgers State Univ, Piscataway, NJ 08855 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA USA. Wharton Sch, Philadelphia, PA USA. RP Hughes, JP (reprint author), Rutgers State Univ, Piscataway, NJ 08855 USA. NR 17 TC 86 Z9 86 U1 3 U2 8 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD MAY PY 1998 VL 80 IS 2 BP 314 EP 325 DI 10.1162/003465398557401 PG 12 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA ZP159 UT WOS:000073722900012 ER PT J AU Stevens, GVG AF Stevens, GVG TI US direct investment to Mexico: Politics, economics, and NAFTA SO CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 71st Annual Conference of the Western-Economic-Association-International CY JUN 28-JUL 02, 1996 CL SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA SP W Econ Assoc Int AB The goal of this paper is 20 determine whether the recent opening of the Mexican economy caused a significant change in the investment behavior of U.S. multinational firms. The first finding is that a real investment function that explained the data well through 1989 shifted dramatically thereafter Tests indicate that the probable causes of this shift were (i) the relaxation of Mexican restrictions on direct investment after 1989 and (ii) anticipatory investment behavior after the positive conclusion of the NAFTA negotiations. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Stevens, GVG (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC 20551 USA. EM stevensg@frb.gov NR 23 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 1 U2 3 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 USA SN 1074-3529 J9 CONTEMP ECON POLICY JI Contemp. Econ. Policy PD APR PY 1998 VL 16 IS 2 BP 197 EP 210 PG 14 WC Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA ZL212 UT WOS:000073410000007 ER PT J AU Sheets, N Boata, S AF Sheets, N Boata, S TI Eastern European export performance during the transition SO CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 71st Annual Conference of the Western-Economic-Association-International CY JUN 28-JUL 02, 1996 CL SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA SP W Econ Assoc Int AB During the past decade, the structure of Eastern European exports has undergone a deep transformation, as communist bloc trading relationships have collapsed and trade with the West has increased. The extent of this geographical re-orientation has generally exceeded the predictions of equilibrium models developed by Hamilton and Winters (1992) and Collins and Rodrik (1991). Significant changes in the product composition of Eastern European exports have accompanied the geographical re-orientation. Exports of manufacturing goods to former communist countries have declined sharply, but exports to the European Community across an array of goods-including heavy machinery-have grown robustly. The observed changes in export composition appeal to reflect the redirection of physical goods through price competition and the emergence of market-determined comparative advantage. C1 Fed Reserve Board, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC USA. RP Sheets, N (reprint author), Fed Reserve Board, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC USA. EM sheetsn@frb.gov; boatas@frb.gov NR 9 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 1 U2 2 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 USA SN 1074-3529 J9 CONTEMP ECON POLICY JI Contemp. Econ. Policy PD APR PY 1998 VL 16 IS 2 BP 211 EP 226 PG 16 WC Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA ZL212 UT WOS:000073410000008 ER PT J AU Bonser-Neal, C Roley, VV Sellon, GH AF Bonser-Neal, C Roley, VV Sellon, GH TI Monetary policy actions, intervention, and exchange rates: A reexamination of the empirical relationships using federal funds rate target data SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS LA English DT Article ID MARKET; ANNOUNCEMENTS; EXPECTATIONS; NEWS AB We reexamine the relationships among Federal Reserve monetary-policy actions, U,S, interventions in currency markets, and exchange rates using an alternative measure of monetary policy actions, the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate target. We find that exchange rates generally respond immediately to U.S, monetary policy actions and that these responses are usually consistent with the overshooting hypothesis. We also find evidence of signaling and leaning-against-the-wind U,S, intervention policies over the sample; however, controlling for such interventions does not alter our estimates of exchange rate responses to federal funds rate target changes. C1 Indiana Univ, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. Univ Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, Kansas City, KS USA. RP Bonser-Neal, C (reprint author), Indiana Univ, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. NR 24 TC 25 Z9 25 U1 0 U2 2 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5801 S ELLIS AVENUE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 USA SN 0021-9398 J9 J BUS JI J. Bus. PD APR PY 1998 VL 71 IS 2 BP 147 EP 177 PG 31 WC Business SC Business & Economics GA ZT696 UT WOS:000074115500001 ER PT J AU Bliss, RR Ronn, EI AF Bliss, RR Ronn, EI TI Callable US treasury bonds: Optimal calls, anomalies, and implied volatilities SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS LA English DT Article ID TERM STRUCTURE; INTEREST-RATES; CONTINGENT CLAIMS; YIELD CURVES; MODELS; VALUES AB Using implied volatility analysis, this article addresses two important issues concerning callable bonds: negative option value anomalies and the optimal call decision rule. In examining apparent negative option values embedded in callable U.S. Treasury bonds, we significantly extend the sample periods and breadths covered by previous researchers and resolve the inconsistencies in their results. We show that the frequency of negative option values is time-varying and related to away-from-the-moneyness. We then develop the option-theoretic optimal policy for calling bonds by introducing the concept of "threshold volatility." Using the concept we determine that most past Treasury call decisions were optimal. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Atlanta, GA USA. Univ Texas, Austin, TX 78712 USA. RP Bliss, RR (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Atlanta, GA USA. NR 30 TC 9 Z9 9 U1 1 U2 5 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5801 S ELLIS AVENUE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 USA SN 0021-9398 J9 J BUS JI J. Bus. PD APR PY 1998 VL 71 IS 2 BP 211 EP 252 DI 10.1086/209743 PG 42 WC Business SC Business & Economics GA ZT696 UT WOS:000074115500003 ER PT J AU Cleveland, WP AF Cleveland, WP TI New capabilities and methods of the X-12-ARIMA seasonal-adjustment program - Comment SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS LA English DT Editorial Material ID TIME-SERIES C1 Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Cleveland, WP (reprint author), Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 4 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC PI ALEXANDRIA PA 1429 DUKE ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 USA SN 0735-0015 J9 J BUS ECON STAT JI J. Bus. Econ. Stat. PD APR PY 1998 VL 16 IS 2 BP 153 EP 155 PG 3 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Mathematics GA ZD816 UT WOS:000072727300002 ER PT J AU Estrella, A AF Estrella, A TI A new measure of fit for equations with dichotomous dependent variables SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS LA English DT Article DE logit; model evaluation; probit ID TESTS; MODEL AB The econometrics literature contains many alternative measures of goodness of fit, roughly analogous to R-2, for use with equations with dichotomous dependent variables. There is, however, no consensus as to the measures' relative merits or about which ones should be reported in empirical work. This article proposes a new measure that possesses several useful properties that the other measures lack. The new measure may be interpreted intuitively in a similar way to R-2 in the linear regression context. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Estrella, A (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 22 TC 111 Z9 111 U1 1 U2 7 PU AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC PI ALEXANDRIA PA 1429 DUKE ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 USA SN 0735-0015 J9 J BUS ECON STAT JI J. Bus. Econ. Stat. PD APR PY 1998 VL 16 IS 2 BP 198 EP 205 DI 10.2307/1392575 PG 8 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Mathematics GA ZD816 UT WOS:000072727300011 ER PT J AU Cole, RA Gunther, JW AF Cole, RA Gunther, JW TI Predicting bank failures: A comparison of on- and off-site monitoring systems SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Article ID MARKET AB On-site examinations are regulators' primary tool for monitoring the financial condition of federally insured depository institutions. In this paper, we assess the speed with which the information content of the supervisory rating assigned during bank exams-the CAMEL rating-decays. This is an important issue because cost and regulatory burden considerations often cause CAMEL ratings to be assigned relatively infrequently. As a benchmark for information content, we use econometric forecasts of bank failures generated by applying a probit model to publicly available accounting data. When compared with all CAMEL ratings available at a given point in One, the econometric forecasts provide a more accurate indication of failure. Further analysis reveals that this overall finding reflects the tendency for a CAMEL rating's information content to deteriorate noticeably beginning in the second or third quarter after the rating initially was assigned. C1 Employment Policies Inst, Washington, DC USA. Fed Reserve Bank, Dallas, TX USA. RP Cole, RA (reprint author), Employment Policies Inst, Washington, DC USA. RI Cole, Rebel/C-4399-2008 OI Cole, Rebel/0000-0001-9830-662X NR 17 TC 57 Z9 58 U1 1 U2 8 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD APR PY 1998 VL 13 IS 2 BP 103 EP 117 DI 10.1023/A:1007954718966 PG 15 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA ZL662 UT WOS:000073457800001 ER PT J AU Picone, G Uribe, M Wilson, RM AF Picone, G Uribe, M Wilson, RM TI The effect of uncertainty on the demand for medical care, health capital and wealth SO JOURNAL OF HEALTH ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE medical care expenditures; uncertainty; precautionary behavior; dynamic modeling ID RISK AB We analyze the effect of the uncertainty of the incidence of illness on the demand for medical care and on the accumulation of health capital and wealth over the retirement years. We use a simplified version of a dynamic Grossman household production model to characterize patterns of an individual's precautionary behavior. Elderly individuals respond to uncertainty by smoothing their expected utility over time by making specific patterns of purchases of medical care and consumption. We examine these patterns for individuals with different degrees of risk aversion. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. C1 Univ S Florida, Coll Business Adm, Dept Econ, Tampa, FL 33620 USA. Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Picone, G (reprint author), Univ S Florida, Coll Business Adm, Dept Econ, 4202 E Fowler Ave, Tampa, FL 33620 USA. OI Picone, Gabriel/0000-0002-4926-2445 NR 13 TC 29 Z9 29 U1 2 U2 13 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-6296 J9 J HEALTH ECON JI J. Health Econ. PD APR PY 1998 VL 17 IS 2 BP 171 EP 185 DI 10.1016/S0167-6296(97)00028-3 PG 15 WC Economics; Health Care Sciences & Services; Health Policy & Services SC Business & Economics; Health Care Sciences & Services GA ZV904 UT WOS:000074353400003 PM 10180914 ER PT J AU Schmitt-Grohe, S AF Schmitt-Grohe, S TI The international transmission of economic fluctuations: Effects of US business cycles on the Canadian economy SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE international transmission of business cycles ID MONOPOLISTIC COMPETITION; PRODUCTIVITY SHOCKS; AGGREGATE DEMAND; DYNAMICS; MODEL AB This paper suggests that for a wide class of international real-business-cycle models, including models with imperfect competition, the traditional channels of international transmission of business cycles through world-interest-rate and terms-of-trade variations cannot explain the cyclical response of the Canadian economy to innovations in U.S. output. Empirically testable quantitative models of the effects on Canadian economic activity of shocks to the U.S. economy are developed and their empirical relevance is tested by comparing impulse responses estimated from vector autoregressions to the quantitative predictions of the theoretical models. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Schmitt-Grohe, S (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 34 TC 48 Z9 49 U1 2 U2 8 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD APR PY 1998 VL 44 IS 2 BP 257 EP 287 DI 10.1016/S0022-1996(97)00031-7 PG 31 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZR463 UT WOS:000073979400004 ER PT J AU Jayaratne, J Strahan, PE AF Jayaratne, J Strahan, PE TI Entry restrictions, industry evolution, and dynamic efficiency: Evidence from commercial banking SO JOURNAL OF LAW & ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID DEPOSIT INSURANCE; DEREGULATION; PERFORMANCE AB This article shows that bank performance improves significantly after restrictions on bank expansion are lifted. We find that operating costs and loan losses decrease sharply after states permit statewide branching and, to a lesser extent, after states allow interstate banking. The improvements following branching deregulation appear to occur because better banks grow at the expense of their less efficient rivals. By retarding the "natural" evolution of the industry, branching restrictions reduced the performance of the average banking asset. We also find that most of the reduction in banks' costs were passed along to bank borrowers in the form of lower loan rates. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Jayaratne, J (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 34 TC 110 Z9 112 U1 1 U2 9 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5801 S ELLIS AVENUE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 USA SN 0022-2186 J9 J LAW ECON JI J. Law Econ. PD APR PY 1998 VL 41 IS 1 BP 239 EP 273 DI 10.1086/467390 PG 35 WC Economics; Law SC Business & Economics; Government & Law GA ZP030 UT WOS:000073709300008 ER PT J AU Chang, R AF Chang, R TI Political party negotiations, income distribution, and endogenous growth SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE political economy; bargaining; economic growth ID ECONOMIC-GROWTH; SOVEREIGN DEBT; MODEL; EQUILIBRIUM; COUNTRIES; POLICY AB This paper examines the determination of the rate of growth in an economy in which two political parties, each representing a different social class, negotiate the magnitude and allocation of taxes. Taxes may increase growth if they finance public services, but reduce growth when used to redistribute income between classes. The different social classes have different preferences about growth and redistribution. The resulting conflict is resolved through the tax negotiations between political parties. I use the model to obtain empirical predictions and policy lessons about the relationship between economic growth and income inequality. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Res Dept, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. RP Chang, R (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Res Dept, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. NR 36 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 1 U2 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD APR PY 1998 VL 41 IS 2 BP 227 EP 255 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(97)00073-1 PG 29 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZC914 UT WOS:000072631700001 ER PT J AU Cochrane, JH AF Cochrane, JH TI What do the VARs mean? Measuring the output effects of monetary policy SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE monetary policy; vector autoregression; identification ID TIME-SERIES FACTS; TRANSMISSION MECHANISM; RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS; LIQUIDITY; MODEL; FUNDS; MONEY AB VARs describe the history of output and other variables following monetary shocks. To measure the effects of monetary shocks, one must add economic identifying assumptions. I specify the relative effects of anticipated and unanticipated money, and I calculate how VAR-based measures of the effect of money on output change as one varies this assumption. The anticipated/unanticipated assumption influences measured output effects as much or more than the variable selection and shock orthogonalization assumptions on which the VAR literature focuses, Assuming that anticipated monetary policy can have some effect on output results in much shorter, smaller, and perhaps more believable estimates of the output response to monetary shocks. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Chicago, Grad Sch Business, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Chicago, IL 60604 USA. Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. RP Cochrane, JH (reprint author), Univ Chicago, Grad Sch Business, 1101 E 58th St, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. EM john.cochrane@gsb.uchicago.edu NR 33 TC 40 Z9 42 U1 1 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD APR PY 1998 VL 41 IS 2 BP 277 EP 300 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(97)00075-5 PG 24 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZC914 UT WOS:000072631700003 ER PT J AU Smith, BD Villamil, AP AF Smith, BD Villamil, AP TI Government borrowing using bonds with randomly determined returns: Welfare improving randomization in the context of deficit finance SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE deficit finance; randomization AB We study the problem of a government that wishes to share optimally the burden of deficit finance among agents with differential access to investment opportunities. In the presence of private information, it is Pareto efficient for the government to borrow in a way that amounts to non-linear taxation, and it must treat agents with access to the best investment opportunities preferentially to keep them in the bond market. In addition, with private information about access to assets, it is often desirable to randomize extraneously the return on the highest yielding government liabilities. The optimal government policy is shown to accord well with historical observations and provides insight into why explicit randomization is not often observed in private contracts. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Illinois, Dept Econ, Champaign, IL 60820 USA. Univ Texas, Dept Econ, Austin, TX 78712 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. RP Villamil, AP (reprint author), Univ Illinois, Dept Econ, 1206 S 6th St, Champaign, IL 60820 USA. EM avillami@uiuc.edu NR 16 TC 8 Z9 8 U1 0 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD APR PY 1998 VL 41 IS 2 BP 351 EP 370 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(97)00080-9 PG 20 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZC914 UT WOS:000072631700007 ER PT J AU Gazel, R AF Gazel, R TI The economic impacts of casino gambling at the state and local levels SO ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE LA English DT Article AB This article describes and discusses the components of an economic impact analysis of casino gambling in state and local economies. The article focuses on the positive and negative economic impacts of casino gambling and how large these impacts are likely to be in specific old and new gambling jurisdictions. An emphasis is given to the consequences of market structures used by specific jurisdictions in issuing gambling licenses. The article suggests that monopolistic and oligopolistic market structures are, in general, the major reasons for economic losses for state and local economies when they legalize casino gambling. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Kansas City, KS USA. Univ Nevada, Las Vegas, NV 89154 USA. RP Gazel, R (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Kansas City, KS USA. NR 11 TC 14 Z9 14 U1 2 U2 5 PU SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC PI THOUSAND OAKS PA 2455 TELLER RD, THOUSAND OAKS, CA 91320 USA SN 0002-7162 J9 ANN AM ACAD POLIT SS JI Ann. Am. Acad. Polit. Soc. Sci. PD MAR PY 1998 VL 556 BP 66 EP 84 DI 10.1177/0002716298556001006 PG 19 WC Political Science; Social Sciences, Interdisciplinary SC Government & Law; Social Sciences - Other Topics GA YY223 UT WOS:000072125600006 ER PT J AU Boyd, JH Smith, BD AF Boyd, JH Smith, BD TI Capital market imperfections in a monetary growth model SO ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article ID DEBT CONTRACTS; INFLATION; INTERMEDIATION AB We consider a monetary growth model essentially identical to that of Diamond (1965) and Tirole (1985), except that we explicitly model credit markets, a credit market friction, and an allocative function for financial intermediaries. These changes yield substantially different results than those obtained in more standard models. In particular, if any monetary steady state equilibria exist, there are generally two of them; one of these has a low capital stock and output level, and it is necessarily a saddle. The other steady state has a high capital stock and output level; either it is necessarily a sink, or its stability properties depend on the rate of money creation. It follows that monetary equilibria can be indeterminate, and nonconvergence phenomena can be observed. Increases in the rate of money creation reduce the capital stock in the high-capital-stock steady state. If the high-capital-stock steady state is not a sink for all rates of money growth, then increases in the rate of money growth can induce a Hopf bifurcation. Hence dynamical equilibria can display damped oscillation as a steady state equilibrium is approached, and limit cycles can be observed as well. In addition, in the latter case, high enough rates of inflation induce the kinds of "crises" noted by Bruno and Easterly (1995): when inflation is too high there are no equilibrium paths approaching the high-activity steady state. C1 Univ Minnesota, Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. Univ Minnesota, Dept Finance, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. Univ Texas, Austin, TX 78712 USA. RP Boyd, JH (reprint author), Univ Minnesota, Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, 735 Management & Econ,271 19th Ave S, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. NR 39 TC 46 Z9 46 U1 4 U2 6 PU SPRINGER VERLAG PI NEW YORK PA 175 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0938-2259 J9 ECON THEOR JI Econ. Theory PD MAR PY 1998 VL 11 IS 2 BP 241 EP 273 DI 10.1007/s001990050187 PG 33 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YX691 UT WOS:000072066900001 ER PT J AU Kaminsky, G Lizondo, S Reinhart, CM AF Kaminsky, G Lizondo, S Reinhart, CM TI Leading indicators of currency crises SO INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND STAFF PAPERS LA English DT Article ID SPECULATIVE ATTACKS; PAYMENTS CRISES; DEVALUATION; COUNTRIES; BALANCE; MODELS AB This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning "signal" that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ration of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Int Monetary Fund, Western Hemisphere Dept, Washington, DC 20431 USA. Univ Maryland, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. RP Kaminsky, G (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RI Reinhart, Carmen/B-6997-2008 NR 41 TC 303 Z9 317 U1 7 U2 28 PU INT MONETARY FUND PI WASHINGTON PA 700 19TH ST, NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20431 USA SN 0020-8027 J9 INT MONET FUND S PAP JI Int. Monet. Fund Staff Pap. PD MAR PY 1998 VL 45 IS 1 BP 1 EP 48 PG 48 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZH771 UT WOS:000073146000001 ER PT J AU Rhoades, SA AF Rhoades, SA TI The efficiency effects of bank mergers: An overview of case studies of nine mergers SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE mergers; efficiency; bank mergers ID MARKET AB This paper summarizes nine case studies, by nine authors, on the efficiency effects of bank mergers. The mergers selected for study were ones that seemed relatively likely to yield efficiency gains. That is, they involved relatively large banks generally with substantial market overlap, and most occurred during the early 1990s when efficiency was getting a lot of attention in banking. All nine of the mergers resulted in significant cost cutting in line with premerger projections. Four of the nine mergers were clearly successful in improving cost efficiency but five were not. It is not possible to isolate specific factors from these mergers that are most likely to yield efficiency gains, but the most frequent and serious problem was unexpected difficulty in integrating data processing systems and operations. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Board, Financial Struct Div, Div Res & Stat, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Rhoades, SA (reprint author), Fed Reserve Board, Financial Struct Div, Div Res & Stat, Washington, DC 20551 USA. EM srhoades@frb.gov NR 41 TC 87 Z9 87 U1 1 U2 13 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD MAR PY 1998 VL 22 IS 3 BP 273 EP 291 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(97)00053-8 PG 19 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZP095 UT WOS:000073715900002 ER PT J AU Rapaport, C AF Rapaport, C TI Household and family economics. SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE LA English DT Book Review C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Rapaport, C (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 1 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0022-0515 J9 J ECON LIT JI J. Econ. Lit. PD MAR PY 1998 VL 36 IS 1 BP 262 EP 263 PG 2 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZD909 UT WOS:000072737500031 ER PT J AU Saving, JL Saving, TR AF Saving, JL Saving, TR TI International capital markets and central bank sovereignty SO JOURNAL OF INSTITUTIONAL AND THEORETICAL ECONOMICS-ZEITSCHRIFT FUR DIE GESAMTE STAATSWISSENSCHAFT LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 15th International Seminar on the New Institutional Economics : Financial Institutions in Transition - Banks and Financial Markets CY JUN 04-06, 1997 CL WALLERFANGEN, GERMANY SP Volkswagenstiftung, Texas A & M Univ, Private Enterprise Res Ctr, Saarland Sportotto GmbH, Landsbank Saar Girozentrale, Freunde Univ Saarlandes ID FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE-RATES; OPTIMAL INFLATION TAX; CURRENCY SUBSTITUTION; MONEY; MODEL AB We derive the inflation elasticity of the demand for domestic currency using a shopping time model. The resulting transactions cost function is solidly grounded in a theory of the transactions process. The implied production function for monetary services cannot have a constant elasticity of substitution. Application of these results to currency substitution implies that an open country that raises revenue via inflation seigniorage must reduce its inflation rate to the inflation rate of a dominant currency and that there exists a monetary reform that will result in maximum seigniorage at the inflation rate of that dominant currency. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Dept Res, Dallas, TX 75201 USA. Texas A&M Univ, Private Enterprise Res Ctr, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. RP Saving, JL (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Dept Res, 2200 N Pearl St, Dallas, TX 75201 USA. NR 20 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 3 PU J C B MOHR PI TUBINGEN PA POSTFACH 2040, W-7400 TUBINGEN, GERMANY SN 0932-4569 J9 J INST THEOR ECON JI J. Inst. Theor. Econ.-Z. Gesamte Staatswiss. PD MAR PY 1998 VL 154 IS 1 BP 261 EP 279 PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA 118TE UT WOS:000075855400025 ER PT J AU Bullard, J Duffy, J AF Bullard, J Duffy, J TI Learning and the stability of cycles SO MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS LA English DT Article DE learning; multiple equilibria; coordination; genetic algorithm ID OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS MODEL; REPEATED PRISONERS-DILEMMA; GENETIC ALGORITHMS; RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS; EQUILIBRIUM; EXCHANGE; CONVERGENCE; AGENTS; MONEY; INDETERMINACY AB We investigate the extent to which agents can learn to coordinate on stationary perfect-foresight cycles in a general-equilibrium environment. Depending on the value of a preference parameter, the limiting backward (direction of time reversed) perfect-foresight dynamics are characterized by steady-state, periodic, or chaotic trajectories for real money balances. We relax the perfect-foresight assumption and examine how a population of artificial, heterogeneous adaptive agents might learn in such an environment. These artificial agents optimize given their forecasts of future prices, and they use forecast rules that are consistent with steady-state or periodic trajectories for prices. The agents' forecast rules are updated by a genetic algorithm. We find that the population of artificial adaptive agents is able eventually to coordinate on steady state and low-order cycles, but not on the higher-order periodic equilibria that exist under the perfect-foresight assumption. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Res Dept, St Louis, MO 63102 USA. Univ Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA 15260 USA. RP Bullard, J (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Res Dept, 411 Locust St, St Louis, MO 63102 USA. RI Duffy, John/F-6968-2015; Bullard, James/L-8120-2016 OI Duffy, John/0000-0002-7660-2281; Bullard, James/0000-0002-1142-6803 NR 57 TC 15 Z9 15 U1 3 U2 7 PU CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS PI NEW YORK PA 40 WEST 20TH STREET, NEW YORK, NY 10011-4211 USA SN 1365-1005 J9 MACROECON DYN JI Macroecon. Dyn. PD MAR PY 1998 VL 2 IS 1 BP 22 EP 48 PG 27 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZW376 UT WOS:000074404800002 ER PT J AU Fortune, P AF Fortune, P TI Tax-exempt bonds really do subsidize municipal capital! SO NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL LA English DT Article AB A New View of tax exemption rejects the Traditional View that tax exemption gives a capital cost subsidy measured by the difference between taxable and tax-exempt interest rates. This paper develops a decisive voter model in which the New View is a special case. It considers the effects of several financial assumptions underlying the New View. It is shown that when leverage-related costs affect private as well as municipal debt, when voters are liquidity constrained, and when voters face limits on their private debt capacity, the effect of tax exemption on the municipal cost of capital is very close to the effect predicted by the naive Traditional View. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02106 USA. RP Fortune, P (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02106 USA. NR 7 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 1 PU NATL TAX ASSN PI COLUMBUS PA 5310 EAST MAIN ST, COLUMBUS, OH 43213 USA SN 0028-0283 J9 NATL TAX J JI Natl. Tax J. PD MAR PY 1998 VL 51 IS 1 BP 43 EP 54 PG 12 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZD187 UT WOS:000072660100003 ER PT J AU Simons, K Stavins, J AF Simons, K Stavins, J TI Has antitrust policy in banking become obsolete? SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID MARKET-STRUCTURE; RIGIDITY AB The U.S. banking industry has been rapidly consolidating for more than a decade, and the number of commercial banks has declined by almost 30 percent since 1988. At the same time, recent changes in banking law have relaxed constraints on allowable bank activities and geographic expansion, and technology improvements have brought about new secondary markets and payment systems. While banks entered new markets, other financial institutions entered the markets traditionally served by banks. Such far-reaching changes in the financial system make this an appropriate time to reassess antitrust policy in banking. The authors analyze the effect of bank mergers on deposit interest rates, using data on banks responding to the Federal Reserve's Monthly Survey of Selected Deposits over an 11-year period. Their results suggest that banks exercise market power in pricing money market deposits and CDs in their local markets. Banks pay lower deposit interest rates in markets that are more concentrated, and deposit interest rates are lower in the year following a bank's participation in a merger, for any level of market concentration. Interestingly, rivals located in the same market as the merged banks are more successful in exercising market power by lowering deposit rates than the merged banks themselves. The effect is especially pronounced in large rival banks' pricing. The finding that mergers have an adverse effect on consumer deposit pricing raises a question about whether antitrust enforcement has been sufficiently vigorous. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Simons, K (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 16 TC 12 Z9 12 U1 0 U2 4 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAR-APR PY 1998 BP 13 EP + PG 16 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZK799 UT WOS:000073364800002 ER PT J AU Peek, J Rosengren, ES AF Peek, J Rosengren, ES TI The evolution of bank lending to small business SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Lending to small firms traditionally has been a business served primarily by the banking industry, which has recently undergone substantial consolidation, in part stimulated by the relaxation of barriers to interstate mergers and interstate branching. As many banks grow in size and focus more on national and international markets, it is possible that some lines of business, including small business lending, may be less profitable for them than other activities that exploit more fully the advantages arising from economies of size and scope. This article examines how consolidation, along with the use of credit-scoring models for lending, may be reflected in recent patterns of small business lending by banks. The authors find that the market for small business lending has been substantially influenced both by the wave of bank consolidations and by the adoption of efficiency-enhancing information technologies at banks. Using Call Report data, they show that the pattern of changes in small business lending following bank mergers is sensitive to the size of the banks involved, as well as to the degree to which the acquirer has chosen to specialize in small business lending. C1 Boston Coll, Chestnut Hill, MA 02167 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Peek, J (reprint author), Boston Coll, Chestnut Hill, MA 02167 USA. NR 13 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 1 U2 3 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAR-APR PY 1998 BP 27 EP + PG 11 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZK799 UT WOS:000073364800003 ER PT J AU Bania, N Bauer, PW Zlatoper, TJ AF Bania, N Bauer, PW Zlatoper, TJ TI US air passenger service: A taxonomy of route networks, hub locations, and competition SO TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART E-LOGISTICS AND TRANSPORTATION REVIEW LA English DT Article DE airlines; hubs; competition ID AIRLINE INDUSTRY AB In this paper, we analyze the service provided by the 13 largest US passenger airlines to the 100 most populous US metropolitan areas in 1989. We classify the route systems by their nature and geographic scope using a variety of measures based on route-level data. We then identify individual airline hub locations; derive and calculate several measures of the extent of competition on individual routes, for individual airlines and at the airports in our sample; and analyze relationships among route structure, costs, and subsequent carrier performance. The results show the wide diversity of route networks that existed in the airline industry in 1989 - a phenomenon that may help to explain the eventual failure of several major carriers. C1 Case Western Reserve Univ, Ctr Urban Poverty Social Change, Cleveland, OH 44106 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Cleveland, OH 44114 USA. John Carroll Univ, Dept Econ & Finance, University Hts, OH USA. RP Bania, N (reprint author), Case Western Reserve Univ, Ctr Urban Poverty Social Change, Cleveland, OH 44106 USA. NR 25 TC 41 Z9 41 U1 3 U2 12 PU PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD PI OXFORD PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, ENGLAND SN 1366-5545 J9 TRANSPORT RES E-LOG JI Transp. Res. Pt. e-Logist. Transp. Rev. PD MAR PY 1998 VL 34 IS 1 BP 53 EP 74 DI 10.1016/S1366-5545(97)00037-9 PG 22 WC Economics; Engineering, Civil; Operations Research & Management Science; Transportation; Transportation Science & Technology SC Business & Economics; Engineering; Operations Research & Management Science; Transportation GA ZQ299 UT WOS:000073844100005 ER PT J AU Espinosa-Vega, MA Russell, S AF Espinosa-Vega, MA Russell, S TI Can higher inflation reduce real interest rates in the long run? SO CANADIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS-REVUE CANADIENNE D ECONOMIQUE LA English DT Article ID MONEY; MODEL AB This paper describes a simple general equilibrium model in which a permanent easing of monetary policy, engineered via open market purchases, may produce a permanent decrease in the real interest rate and a permanent increase in the inflation rate. Under somewhat stronger assumptions, the nominal interest rate may also decline. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. RP Espinosa-Vega, MA (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA. NR 17 TC 14 Z9 14 U1 0 U2 1 PU UNIV TORONTO PRESS INC PI TORONTO PA JOURNALS DIVISION, 5201 DUFFERIN ST, DOWNSVIEW, TORONTO, ON M3H 5T8, CANADA SN 0008-4085 J9 CAN J ECON JI Can. J. Econ.-Rev. Can. Econ. PD FEB PY 1998 VL 31 IS 1 BP 92 EP 103 DI 10.2307/136379 PG 12 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZD737 UT WOS:000072718400007 ER PT J AU Sill, K AF Sill, K TI An empirical investigation of money demand: evidence from a cash-in-advance model SO CANADIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS-REVUE CANADIENNE D ECONOMIQUE LA English DT Article ID MOMENTS ESTIMATORS; GENERALIZED-METHOD; BUSINESS-CYCLE AB This paper investigates the empirical performance of a cash-in-advance model of money demand in which the income velocity of money may be non-stationary. Generalized method of moments is used to estimate parameters from first-order conditions but, unlike much of the existing empirical work on money/asset pricing models, the Euler equations are not assumed to hold exactly. Instrumental variables methods are used to estimate the model parameters, with careful attention paid to the choice of valid instruments. The estimated parameters are used to solve the model and its predictions are compared with those of an unrestricted VAR. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Philadelphia, PA 19106 USA. RP Sill, K (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Philadelphia, PA 19106 USA. NR 21 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 2 PU UNIV TORONTO PRESS INC PI TORONTO PA JOURNALS DIVISION, 5201 DUFFERIN ST, DOWNSVIEW, TORONTO, ON M3H 5T8, CANADA SN 0008-4085 J9 CAN J ECON JI Can. J. Econ.-Rev. Can. Econ. PD FEB PY 1998 VL 31 IS 1 BP 125 EP 147 DI 10.2307/136381 PG 23 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZD737 UT WOS:000072718400009 ER PT J AU Begley, J Hughes, J Rayburn, J Runkle, D AF Begley, J Hughes, J Rayburn, J Runkle, D TI Assessing the impact of export taxes on Canadian softwood lumber SO CANADIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS-REVUE CANADIENNE D ECONOMIQUE LA English DT Article ID INDUSTRY AB This study examines stock price reactions, for both U.S. and Canadian softwood lumber producers, to a series of events culminating in the 1986 Memorandum of Understanding under which Canada agreed to impose a fifteen-percent export tariff on lumber shipped to the U.S. Our results indicate that a number of these events were accompanied by significant reactions in directions consistent with our priors. Notwithstanding that the events in question pertained principally to the prospects of a tariff, it is possible that these events also had implications for the outcome of free trade negotiations in progress during this time frame. JEL classification: 422. C1 Univ British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada. Duke Univ, Durham, NC 27706 USA. Univ Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, Minneapolis, MN USA. RP Begley, J (reprint author), Univ British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada. NR 10 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 4 PU UNIV TORONTO PRESS INC PI TORONTO PA JOURNALS DIVISION, 5201 DUFFERIN ST, DOWNSVIEW, TORONTO, ON M3H 5T8, CANADA SN 0008-4085 J9 CAN J ECON JI Can. J. Econ.-Rev. Can. Econ. PD FEB PY 1998 VL 31 IS 1 BP 207 EP 219 DI 10.2307/136385 PG 13 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZD737 UT WOS:000072718400013 ER PT J AU Rhine, SLW Ng, YC AF Rhine, SLW Ng, YC TI The effect of employment status on private health insurance coverage: 1977 and 1987 SO HEALTH ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE insurance; employment status ID CHOICE AB Analyzing cross-sectional data from the National Medical Expenditure Survey (NMES), we find that the predicted probability of private insurance coverage for low-income individuals as a group fell dramatically from 1977 to 1987. The results of a decompositional technique show that the relationship between full-time employment and private insurance has weakened over the period for low-income females, but has strengthened for males in this group. While it appears that low-income females benefit from part-time employment relative to their unemployed cohorts, no discernible difference is found in the likelihood of being covered by private insurance for part-time and unemployed males. Finally, evidence suggesting a weakening over time in the relationship between part-time employment and private insurance coverage is found among middle-income females and high-income males. From a policy perspective, passage of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 has taken an important first step in attempting to lower the number of uninsured, especially among full-time workers. Our findings, however, suggest that this legislation may be too limited in scope to effectively reach part-time workers presently uninsured. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. C1 Hong Kong Baptist Univ, Dept Econ, Kowloon, Hong Kong. Fed Reserve Bank, Chicago, IL USA. RP Ng, YC (reprint author), Hong Kong Baptist Univ, Dept Econ, Kowloon, Hong Kong. NR 15 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 1 PU JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD PI W SUSSEX PA BAFFINS LANE CHICHESTER, W SUSSEX PO19 1UD, ENGLAND SN 1057-9230 J9 HEALTH ECON JI Health Econ. PD FEB PY 1998 VL 7 IS 1 BP 63 EP 79 DI 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1050(199802)7:1<63::AID-HEC317>3.0.CO;2-W PG 17 WC Economics; Health Care Sciences & Services; Health Policy & Services SC Business & Economics; Health Care Sciences & Services GA ZH430 UT WOS:000073108200007 PM 9541085 ER PT J AU Cole, HL Kehoe, PJ AF Cole, HL Kehoe, PJ TI Models of sovereign debt: Partial versus general reputations SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID IMPERFECT INFORMATION; REPUDIATION; DEFAULT; RISK AB Some economists argue that as long as governments can earn the market rate of return by saving abroad, standard reputation models cannot support debt. We argue that these standard reputation models are partial in the sense that actions of agents in one arena affect reputation in that arena only. We develop a general model of reputation in which if a government is viewed as untrustworthy in one relationship, this government will be viewed as untrustworthy in other relationships. We show that our general model of reputation can support large amounts of debt. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. Univ Penn, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. RP Cole, HL (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. NR 21 TC 49 Z9 50 U1 1 U2 5 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 USA SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD FEB PY 1998 VL 39 IS 1 BP 55 EP 70 DI 10.2307/2527230 PG 16 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YX098 UT WOS:000072006200003 ER PT J AU Kaminsky, GL Leiderman, L AF Kaminsky, GL Leiderman, L TI High real interest rates in the aftermath of disinflation: is it a lack of credibility? SO JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE credibility crisis; currency crisis; stabilization programs ID STOPPING HIGH INFLATION; EXPECTATIONS; REGIME AB High real interest rates have been observed in many countries for several months after the adoption of disinflation programs. While they may reflect primarily a liquidity crunch, high ex post real interest rates can also be explained in terms of an ex post error in inflation expectations that reflects a lack of credibility of the low-inflation policy. The latter hypothesis is tested using data for Argentina, Israel, and Mexico during the implementation of the stabilization programs in the mid-1980s. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Tel Aviv Univ, Berglas Sch Econ, IL-69978 Ramat Aviv, Israel. Univ Stockholm, Inst Econ Studies, Stockholm, Sweden. Int Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 20431 USA. RP Kaminsky, GL (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 19 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 1 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3878 J9 J DEV ECON JI J. Dev. Econ. PD FEB PY 1998 VL 55 IS 1 BP 191 EP 214 DI 10.1016/S0304-3878(97)00062-X PG 24 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZJ264 UT WOS:000073196600009 ER PT J AU Bullard, J Duffy, J AF Bullard, J Duffy, J TI A model of learning and emulation with artificial adaptive agents SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article DE learning; genetic algorithm; coordination; overlapping generations ID REPEATED PRISONERS-DILEMMA; GENETIC ALGORITHMS; FINITE AUTOMATA; OPTIMIZATION; ECONOMIES; EXCHANGE AB We study adaptive learning in a sequence of overlapping generations economies in which agents live for n periods. Agents initially have heterogeneous beliefs, and form multi-step-ahead forecasts using a forecast rule chosen from a vast set of candidate rules. Agents learn in every period by creating new forecast rules and by emulating the forecast rules of other agents. Computational experiments show that systems so defined can yield three qualitatively different types of long-run outcomes: (1) coordination on a low inflation, stationary perfect foresight equilibrium; (2) persistent currency collapse; and (3) coordination failure within the allotted time frame. C1 UNIV PITTSBURGH,PITTSBURGH,PA 15260. RP Bullard, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK,411 LOCUST ST,ST LOUIS,MO 63102, USA. RI Duffy, John/F-6968-2015; Bullard, James/L-8120-2016 OI Duffy, John/0000-0002-7660-2281; Bullard, James/0000-0002-1142-6803 NR 22 TC 27 Z9 28 U1 1 U2 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD FEB PY 1998 VL 22 IS 2 BP 179 EP 207 DI 10.1016/S0165-1889(97)00072-9 PG 29 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YL138 UT WOS:A1998YL13800001 ER PT J AU Elliott, RJ Hunter, WC Jamieson, BM AF Elliott, RJ Hunter, WC Jamieson, BM TI Drift and volatility estimation in discrete time SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article DE filtering; hidden Markov models; parameter estimation; volatility AB In discrete time the increment of the logarithm of the price of a risky asset is supposed to involve two parameters which may be thought of as the 'drift' and 'volatility'. It is assumed these parameters take finitely many values, and that they change value like a Markov chain on this state space. Filtering and parameter estimation techniques from Hidden Markov Models are then applied to obtain recursive estimates of the 'drift' and 'volatility'. Further, all parameters in the model can be estimated. The method is illustrated by applying the results to two series of prices. C1 FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL 60604. RP Elliott, RJ (reprint author), UNIV ALBERTA,DEPT MATH SCI,EDMONTON,AB T6G 2G1,CANADA. NR 4 TC 17 Z9 17 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD FEB PY 1998 VL 22 IS 2 BP 209 EP 218 DI 10.1016/S0165-1889(97)00052-3 PG 10 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YL138 UT WOS:A1998YL13800002 ER PT J AU Fisher, M Gilles, C AF Fisher, M Gilles, C TI Around and around: The expectations hypothesis SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Article ID TERM STRUCTURE; INTEREST-RATES; TRADITIONAL HYPOTHESES AB We show how to construct models of the term structure of interest rates in which the expectations hypothesis holds. McCulloch (1993) presents such a model, thereby contradicting an assertion by Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1981), but his example is Gaussian and falls outside the class of finite-dimensional Markovian models. We generalize McCulloch's model in three ways: (i) We provide an arbitrage-free characterization of the unbiased expectations hypothesis in terms of forward rates; (ii) we extend this characterization to a whole class of expectations hypotheses; and (iii) we show how to construct finite-dimensional Markovian and non-Gaussian examples. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Fisher, M (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 12 TC 9 Z9 9 U1 0 U2 6 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI HOBOKEN PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA SN 0022-1082 EI 1540-6261 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD FEB PY 1998 VL 53 IS 1 BP 365 EP 383 DI 10.1111/0022-1082.145490 PG 19 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA YW985 UT WOS:000071994700014 ER PT J AU Durkin, TA Elliehausen, GE AF Durkin, TA Elliehausen, GE TI The cost structure of the consumer finance industry SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Article ID BANKING; SCALE; EFFICIENCY; ECONOMIES; SAVINGS AB This paper estimates the cost function of the consumer finance company industry to explore the questions of existence of scale economies and elasticity of costs by loan size. Using a more appropriate functional form and much newer data than in earlier studies, this study confirms their general conclusion that economies of scale in the industry are limited at the firm level but exist at the office level. scale economies are found only at smaller offices, however; and they become exhausted as office size increases. Elasticity of operating costs with respect to loan size is shown to be well less than unity. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Durkin, TA (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 31 TC 2 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 7 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD FEB PY 1998 VL 13 IS 1 BP 71 EP 86 DI 10.1023/A:1007906527814 PG 16 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA YX311 UT WOS:000072027500004 ER PT J AU Kocherlakota, NR AF Kocherlakota, NR TI The effects of moral hazard on asset prices when financial markets are complete SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE moral hazard; asset pricing ID EQUITY PREMIUM; BEHAVIOR; PUZZLE; RISK AB This paper discusses the implications for prices and quantities of an alternative trading arrangement in Kahn's (1990) economic environment with moral hazard. Unlike Kahn's model of asset trade, my model does not impose any unmotivated restrictions on short sales. Instead, it features complete markets and publicly observable asset transactions. Like Kahn's model, my model implies that allocations are (constrained) Pareto optimal. However, the implications of my model for asset prices are considerably different. In particular, when all agents have log utility, asset prices satisfy an aggregation theorem; also, unlike Kahn's model, the model in this paper does worse than the standard representative agent model in terms of explaining the equity premium. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Dept Res, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. RP Kocherlakota, NR (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Dept Res, 90 Hennepin Ave, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. NR 11 TC 18 Z9 19 U1 2 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD FEB PY 1998 VL 41 IS 1 BP 39 EP 56 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(97)00066-4 PG 18 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA YZ120 UT WOS:000072222300003 ER PT J AU Collins, S Anderson, R AF Collins, S Anderson, R TI Modeling US households' demands for liquid wealth in an era of financial change SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID UNIT-ROOT; LONG-RUN; HYPOTHESIS; SYSTEMS; TESTS AB Money demand models overpredicted M2 growth in the United States from 1990 to 1993. We examine this overprediction using a model of households' demands for liquid wealth. The model is a dynamic generalization of the AIDS model of Deaton and Muellbauer (1980a). we find that the own-price elasticity of money rose substantially after 1990. We also End important cross-price elasticities of money with respect to other liquid financial assets, notably with respect to mutual funds. Incorporating these and other features helps explain nearly 50 percent of the shortfall in M2 growth over the period in question. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, St Louis, MO USA. NR 25 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 2 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD FEB PY 1998 VL 30 IS 1 BP 83 EP 101 DI 10.2307/2601269 PG 19 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA YV192 UT WOS:000071798600005 ER PT J AU Morgan, DP AF Morgan, DP TI The credit effects of monetary policy: Evidence using loan commitments SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID TRANSMISSION AB In addition to the usual channels, monetary policy may affect spending by changing the supply of bank loans and the creditworthiness of borrowers. This paper tests for these credit effects using a contractual difference across commercial bank loans. I find that bank loans nor made under a commitment slow after tight policy, while loans under commitment accelerate or are unchanged. This divergence coincides with reports of tighter credit by lenders and by small firms, suggesting the divergence reflects a reduction in the supply of credit to the firms without commitments, rather than a reduction in their demand for loans. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, Res Dept, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Morgan, DP (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, Res Dept, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 30 TC 26 Z9 26 U1 0 U2 5 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI MALDEN PA COMMERCE PLACE, 350 MAIN ST, MALDEN 02148, MA USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD FEB PY 1998 VL 30 IS 1 BP 102 EP 118 DI 10.2307/2601270 PG 17 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA YV192 UT WOS:000071798600006 ER PT J AU Friedman, BM Kuttner, KN AF Friedman, BM Kuttner, KN TI Indicator properties of the paper-bill spread: Lessons from recent experience SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID MONETARY-POLICY; FUNDS AB A feature of U.S. postwar business cycle experience that is by now widely documented is the tendency of the spread between the respective interest rates on commercial paper and Treasury bills to widen shortly before the onset of recessions. By contrast, the paper-till spread did not anticipate the 1990-1991 recession. Empirical work presented in this paper supports two (not mutually exclusive) explanations for this departure from past experience. First, at least part of the paper-bill spread's predictive content with respect to business cycle fluctuations stems from its role as an indicator of monetary policy, but the 1990-1991 recession was unusual in postwar U.S. experience in not being immediately precipitated by tight monetary policy. Second, movements of the spread during the few years just prior to the 1990-1991 recession were strongly influenced by changes in the relative quantities of commercial paper, bank CDs, and Treasury bills that occurred for reasons unrelated to the business cycle. This latter finding in particular sheds light on the important role of imperfect substitutability of different short-term debt instruments in investors' portfolios, and highlights the burdens associated with using relative interest rate relationships as business cycle indicators. C1 Harvard Univ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Friedman, BM (reprint author), Harvard Univ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. NR 28 TC 36 Z9 36 U1 1 U2 5 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD FEB PY 1998 VL 80 IS 1 BP 34 EP 44 DI 10.1162/003465398557311 PG 11 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA YX602 UT WOS:000072057000004 ER PT J AU Estrella, A Mishkin, FS AF Estrella, A Mishkin, FS TI Predicting US recessions: Financial variables as leading indicators SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID TERM-STRUCTURE; BUSINESS-CYCLE; GROWTH AB This paper examines the out-of-sample performance of various financial variables as predictors of U.S. recessions. Series such as interest rates and spreads, stock prices, and monetary aggregates are evaluated individually and in comparison with other financial and nonfinancial indicators. The analysis focuses on out-of-sample performance from one to eight quarters ahead. Results show that stock prices are useful with one-to three-quarter horizons, as are some well-known macroeconomic indicators. Beyond one quarter, however, the slope of the yield curve emerges as the clear individual choice and typically performs better by itself out of sample than in conjunction with other variables. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. Columbia Univ, Grad Sch Business, New York, NY 10027 USA. Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. RP Estrella, A (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 33 TC 292 Z9 293 U1 2 U2 19 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD STREET, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD FEB PY 1998 VL 80 IS 1 BP 45 EP 61 DI 10.1162/003465398557320 PG 17 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA YX602 UT WOS:000072057000005 ER PT J AU Pakko, MR AF Pakko, MR TI Characterizing cross-country consumption correlations SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID REAL BUSINESS CYCLES; NONTRADED GOODS; 2-COUNTRY; INSURANCE; RATES; MODEL; WORLD AB General equilibrium models of international fluctuations that assume complete asset markets predict that consumption will be highly correlated across countries, while the data display correlations that are rather low. It has become common to characterize this empirical regularity by noting that cross-country consumption correlations tend to be lower than corresponding output correlations. This note reconsiders that characterization and demonstrates that it is not particularly robust. It also documents a related regularity that is more pervasive: Consumption fluctuations are more highly correlated with domestic production than with world output. This provides an alternative standard for evaluating models of international fluctuations. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, St Louis, MO USA. RP Pakko, MR (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, St Louis, MO USA. NR 21 TC 10 Z9 10 U1 1 U2 3 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD FEB PY 1998 VL 80 IS 1 BP 169 EP 174 DI 10.1162/003465398557285 PG 6 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA YX602 UT WOS:000072057000017 ER PT B AU Testa, WA AF Testa, WA GP NATL TAX ASSOC NATL TAX ASSOC TI The midwest economy and revenue growth SO 90TH ANNUAL CONFERENCE ON TAXATION, PROCEEDINGS LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 90th Annual Conference on Taxation CY NOV 09-11, 1997 CL CHICAGO, IL SP Natl Tax Assoc C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Chicago, IL USA. NR 3 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU NATIONAL TAX ASSOCIATION PI WASHINGTON PA 725 15TH ST NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20005-2109 USA PY 1998 BP 306 EP 310 PG 5 WC Business, Finance; Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA BM36R UT WOS:000078504000037 ER PT B AU Tannenwald, R AF Tannenwald, R GP NATL TAX ASSOC NATL TAX ASSOC TI Fiscal capacity, fiscal need, and fiscal comfort: New evidence and its relevance to devolution SO 90TH ANNUAL CONFERENCE ON TAXATION, PROCEEDINGS LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 90th Annual Conference on Taxation CY NOV 09-11, 1997 CL CHICAGO, IL SP Natl Tax Assoc C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA USA. NR 3 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU NATIONAL TAX ASSOCIATION PI WASHINGTON PA 725 15TH ST NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20005-2109 USA PY 1998 BP 395 EP 405 PG 11 WC Business, Finance; Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA BM36R UT WOS:000078504000048 ER PT S AU Roberds, W AF Roberds, W BE McCallum, BT Plosser, CI Leeper, EM Sims, CA TI The supply and demand for Federal Reserve deposits - A comment SO CARNEGIE - ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY, VOL 49 - DECEMBER 1998 SE CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy CY NOV, 1997 CL PITTSBURGH, PA C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Atlanta, GA USA. NR 9 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA SARA BURGERHARTSTRAAT 25, PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-2231 J9 CARN ROCH CONF SERIE PY 1998 VL 49 BP 45 EP 52 DI 10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00003-2 PG 8 WC Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA BM98F UT WOS:000080335500002 ER PT S AU Evans, CL Marshall, DA AF Evans, CL Marshall, DA BE McCallum, BT Plosser, CI Leeper, EM Sims, CA TI Monetary policy and the term structure of nominal interest rates: evidence and theory SO CARNEGIE - ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY, VOL 49 - DECEMBER 1998 SE CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy CY NOV, 1997 CL PITTSBURGH, PA ID TIME-SERIES FACTS; AGGREGATE DEMAND; BUSINESS-CYCLE; RISK PREMIUMS; REAL; ECONOMIES; LIQUIDITY; FUNDS; INFLATION; FORECASTS AB This paper explores how exogenous impulses to monetary policy affect the yield curve for nominally risk-free bonds. Three distinct identification strategies imply similar patterns: a contractionary policy shock induces a pronounced positive but short-lived response of short-term interest rates. The response declines monotonically with maturity; long-term rates are virtually unaffected. These responses are unambiguously liquidity effects rather than expected inflation effects. Monetary-policy shocks account for a relatively small fraction of the long-run variance of interest rates. We find that a limited participation model of monetary nonneutrality is broadly consistent with these empirical patterns. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Res Dept, Chicago, IL 60604 USA. NR 54 TC 80 Z9 81 U1 0 U2 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA SARA BURGERHARTSTRAAT 25, PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-2231 J9 CARN ROCH CONF SERIE PY 1998 VL 49 BP 53 EP 111 DI 10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00004-4 PG 59 WC Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA BM98F UT WOS:000080335500003 ER PT S AU McKibbin, WJ Pagan, AR Robertson, JC AF McKibbin, WJ Pagan, AR Robertson, JC BE McCallum, BT Plosser, CI Leeper, EM Sims, CA TI Some experiments in constructing a hybrid model for macroeconomic analysis SO CARNEGIE - ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY, VOL 49 - DECEMBER 1998 SE CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy CY NOV, 1997 CL PITTSBURGH, PA ID RESTRICTIONS; TRENDS AB VAR analysis is a widespread method of quantitatively analyzing macroeconomic issues. In this paper we examine the use of "hybrid" VAR models that retain the short-run features of a VAR but are designed to reproduce selected characteristics of calibrated models that are frequently used for the simulation of policy actions. The calibrated model we use is the McKibbin-Sachs Global (MSG2) model of the world economy. For permanent shocks we constrain the long run responses in the hybrid model to match those from MSG2. For transitory shocks we match shorter-run cumulative responses. The estimated effects of a permanent US money-supply shock are broadly consistent with those of MSG2, but differ in some dimensions from those obtained from a standard recursive VAR. C1 Australian Natl Univ, Dept Econ, Res Sch Social Sci, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. Brookings Inst, Washington, DC 20036 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, Atlanta, GA USA. NR 16 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA SARA BURGERHARTSTRAAT 25, PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-2231 J9 CARN ROCH CONF SERIE PY 1998 VL 49 BP 113 EP 142 DI 10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00005-6 PG 30 WC Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA BM98F UT WOS:000080335500004 ER PT S AU McGrattan, ER AF McGrattan, ER BE McCallum, BT Plosser, CI Leeper, EM Sims, CA TI Trends in velocity and policy expectations - A comment SO CARNEGIE - ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY, VOL 49 - DECEMBER 1998 SE CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy CY NOV, 1997 CL PITTSBURGH, PA C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Minneapolis, MN 55401 USA. NR 2 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA SARA BURGERHARTSTRAAT 25, PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-2231 J9 CARN ROCH CONF SERIE PY 1998 VL 49 BP 305 EP 316 DI 10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00012-3 PG 12 WC Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA BM98F UT WOS:000080335500011 ER PT S AU Fries, G Starr-McCluer, M Sunden, AE AF Fries, G Starr-McCluer, M Sunden, AE BE Leech, IE TI The measurement of household wealth using survey data: An overview of the survey of consumer finances SO CONSUMER INTERESTS ANNUAL, VOL 44 SE PROCEEDINGS : ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAN COUNCIL ON CONSUMER INTERESTS LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 44th Annual Conference of the American-Council-Consumer-Interests CY MAR 25-28, 1998 CL WASHINGTON, D.C. SP Amer Council Consumer Interests AB Survey measurement of household wealth faces some inherent difficulties: respondents may not provide financial information, values of assets and liabilities can be hard to report accurately, and ordinary random samples contain too few wealthy households to represent the full distribution of wealth. The Survey of Consumer Finances has a number of special features intended to promote accurate estimation of household wealth. This paper provides an overview of the SCF, including the sample design, response rates, information collected, and data quality and imputation. C1 Fed Reserve Board, Div Res & Stat, Washington, DC USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 2 PU AMER COUNCIL COMSUMER INTERESTS PI COLUMBIA PA 240 STANLEY HALL, UNIV MISSOURI, COLUMBIA, MO 65211 USA SN 0275-1356 J9 P AM C CONS PY 1998 VL 44 BP 224 EP 231 PG 8 WC Business SC Business & Economics GA BL43R UT WOS:000075514000070 ER PT J AU Orphanides, A Zervos, D AF Orphanides, A Zervos, D TI Myopia and addictive behaviour SO ECONOMIC JOURNAL LA English DT Article ID RATIONAL ADDICTION; CONSUMPTION; DRINKING; DYNAMICS AB We present a theory of addictive behaviour which can account for addicts' apparent disregard for the future consequences of their current actions. The discounting of future utility is increasing in past consumption, indicating increasingly myopic behaviour as consumption increases. The intertemporal complementarity generated by the endogenous discounting produces multiple steady states which can account for the simultaneous existence of myopic addicts and non-myopic non-addicts within a time consistent expected utility framework. The theory also accounts for the probabilistic incidence of addiction and successful rehabilitation and the possibility of recurrence. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Orphanides, A (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 28 TC 34 Z9 35 U1 0 U2 7 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD OX4 1JF, OXON, ENGLAND SN 0013-0133 J9 ECON J JI Econ. J. PD JAN PY 1998 VL 108 IS 446 BP 75 EP 91 DI 10.1111/1468-0297.00274 PG 17 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YR387 UT WOS:000071490300006 ER PT B AU Cantor, R AF Cantor, R BE Levich, RM TI Comments on 'Identification and testing of a term structure relationship for country and currency risk premia in an emerging market' by Ian Domowitz, Jack Glen and Ananth Madhavan SO EMERGING MARKET CAPITAL FLOWS SE NEW YORK UNIVERSITY SALOMON CENTER SERIES ON FINANCIAL MARKETS AND INSTITUTIONS LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Emerging Market Capital Flow CY MAY 23-24, 1996 CL NYU, STERN SCH BUSINESS, NEW YORK, NY SP NYU, Stern Sch Business, Brinson Partners Inc, Salomon Brothers Inc HO NYU, STERN SCH BUSINESS C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY USA. NR 6 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU SPRINGER PI DORDRECHT PA PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS BN 0-7923-9976-5 J9 NYU SA CTR SER F M I PY 1998 VL 2 BP 381 EP 384 PG 4 WC Business, Finance; International Relations; Planning & Development SC Business & Economics; International Relations; Public Administration GA BM23E UT WOS:000078120600023 ER PT B AU Doms, ME Jensen, JB AF Doms, ME Jensen, JB BE Baldwin, RE Lipsey, RE Richardson, JD TI Comparing wages, skills, and productivity between domestically and foreign-owned manufacturing establishments in the United States SO GEOGRAPHY AND OWNERSHIP AS BASES FOR ECONOMIC ACCOUNTING SE STUDIES IN INCOME AND WEALTH LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Research in Income and Wealth CY MAY 19-20, 1995 CL WASHINGTON, D.C. SP Natl Sci Fdn, Bureau Labor Stat, Bureau Econ Anal Stat Canada, Fed Reserve Board ID PLANTS C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Ind Output Sect, Washington, DC USA. NR 13 TC 73 Z9 74 U1 0 U2 0 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 1427 E 60 ST, CHICAGO, IL 60637 USA BN 0-226-03572-7 J9 STUD INCOME PY 1998 VL 59 BP 235 EP 258 PG 24 WC Business, Finance; Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA BM38M UT WOS:000078576100008 ER PT J AU Brunner, AD Kamin, SB AF Brunner, Allan D. Kamin, Steven B. TI Bank Lending and Economic Activity in Japan: Did 'Financial Factors' Contribute to the Recent Downturn? SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID GREAT-DEPRESSION; CREDIT; TRANSMISSION; INVESTMENT; MONEY AB In this paper, we examine the role of 'financial factors' in Japan and attempt to gauge their recent impact on the Japanese economy. First, we find that proxies for financial factors enter significantly in behavioural equations for loan standards, loan demand, and aggregate demand. Second, we find strong evidence that financial factors contributed to Japan's recent recession. On the loan supply side, exogenous declines in equity prices appear to have led to a sharp increase in bank loan standards and a substantial subsequent decline in loans and economic activity. We also find some evidence that an exogenous contraction in loan supply may have lowered output by a small degree, but only in the early phases of the recession. On the loan demand side, asset price declines also led firms and households to sharply reduce their demand for bank loans and goods, although it is unclear how much this influence may reflect traditional wealth effects. In addition, loan demand shocks, which could reflect balance-sheet problems not captured by our model, account for much of the remainder of the shortfall in loans. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. C1 [Brunner, Allan D.; Kamin, Steven B.] Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Brunner, AD (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Int Finance, Mail Stop 42,20th & C St NW, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 42 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 3 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI MALDEN PA COMMERCE PLACE, 350 MAIN ST, MALDEN 02148, MA USA SN 1076-9307 J9 INT J FINANC ECON JI Int. J. Financ. Econ. PD JAN PY 1998 VL 3 IS 1 BP 73 EP 89 PG 17 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA V17IA UT WOS:000207929700008 ER PT J AU Hervey, JL Strauss, WA AF Hervey, JL Strauss, WA TI A regional export-weighted dollar: An examination of the regional impact of exchange rate change SO INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL SCIENCE REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Workshop on Global Linkages to the Midwest Economy CY SEP 18, 1996 CL CHICAGO, ILLINOIS AB Midwest manufacturing has experienced a resurgence in its competitiveness in export markets during the last decade. There is a widely held view that this increased competitiveness is importantly attributable to the depreciation in the foreign exchange value of the dollar. This article questions this view, in particular with regard to selected geographical regions of the United States. Based on the development of real regional export-weighted aggregate exchange rate indexes, this study finds that since 1988 Midwest exporters of manufactured goods, in the aggregate, have Faced an appreciating (not depreciating) dollar. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Chicago, IL 60690 USA. RP Hervey, JL (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, POB 834, Chicago, IL 60690 USA. NR 20 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 1 PU REGIONAL RESEARCH INST, INT REGIONAL SCI REVIEW PI MORGANTOWN PA C/O MARY MYER, WEST VIRGINIA UNIV, PO BOX 6825, MORGANTOWN, WV 26506-6825 USA SN 0160-0176 J9 INT REGIONAL SCI REV JI Int. Reg. Sci. Rev. PY 1998 VL 21 IS 1 BP 79 EP 98 DI 10.1177/016001769802100104 PG 20 WC Environmental Studies; Planning & Development; Urban Studies SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Public Administration; Urban Studies GA 107FK UT WOS:000075196400004 ER PT J AU Gazel, RC Schwer, RK AF Gazel, RC Schwer, RK TI Growth of international exports among the states: Can a modified shift-share analysis explain it? SO INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL SCIENCE REVIEW LA English DT Article ID PERFORMANCE; TRADE AB This paper develops a modified shift-share model for foreign exports of states. We identify the sectoral mix as a proxy for supply conditions and the relative mix of foreign markets as a proxy for demand conditions. We measure the relative importance of both demand and supply factors using the MISER data set. The results suggest that demand conditions are as important, if not more so, than supply conditions in explaining recent foreign export among states. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Kansas City, Kansas City, MO 64198 USA. Univ Nevada, Ctr Business & Econ Res, Las Vegas, NV 89154 USA. RP Gazel, RC (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Kansas City, 925 Grand Blvd, Kansas City, MO 64198 USA. NR 23 TC 11 Z9 11 U1 0 U2 0 PU REGIONAL RESEARCH INST, INT REGIONAL SCI REVIEW PI MORGANTOWN PA C/O MARY MYER, WEST VIRGINIA UNIV, PO BOX 6825, MORGANTOWN, WV 26506-6825 USA SN 0160-0176 J9 INT REGIONAL SCI REV JI Int. Reg. Sci. Rev. PY 1998 VL 21 IS 2 BP 185 EP 204 DI 10.1177/016001769802100205 PG 20 WC Environmental Studies; Planning & Development; Urban Studies SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Public Administration; Urban Studies GA 113XD UT WOS:000075578400005 ER PT J AU Thornton, DL AF Thornton, DL TI The information content of discount rate announcements: What is behind the announcement effect? SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE discount rate; announcement effect; federal funds rate; T-bill rate; monetary policy ID FEDERAL-FUNDS RATE; MARKET AB A considerable volume of research shows that asset prices respond to changes in the Federal Reserve's discount rate. While several competing hypotheses have been advanced to explain the market's response to discount rate announcements, comparatively little effort has been made to differentiate among alternative hypotheses. The result is an abundance of evidence establishing that asset prices respond to discount rate announcements, but little if any agreement about why markets respond. This article attempts to fill a void in the literature by pointing out how competing hypotheses differ and by constructing tests explicitly designed to differentiate among competing explanations. The evidence suggests that the market's reaction to discount rate changes is purely an announcement effect, i.e., a reaction to new information contained in the announcement, that the direct effect of discount rate changes on market rates is nil, that the announcement effect is invariant to the Federal Reserve's operating procedure and that, generally speaking, changes in the discount rate do not signal a change in monetary policy. The announcement effect appears to vary with both the nature and extent of the information that the announcement of a discount rate change is believed to contain. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank St Louis, St Louis, MO 63102 USA. RP Thornton, DL (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank St Louis, 411 Locust St, St Louis, MO 63102 USA. EM daniel.l.thornton@stls.frb.org NR 36 TC 8 Z9 8 U1 0 U2 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD JAN PY 1998 VL 22 IS 1 BP 83 EP 108 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(97)00049-6 PG 26 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZH102 UT WOS:000073072300005 ER PT B AU Kodrzycki, YK AF Kodrzycki, YK BE Netzer, D TI Replacing capital taxes with land taxes: Efficiency and distributional implications with an application to the United States economy - Commentary SO LAND VALUE TAXATION: CAN IT AND WILL IT WORK TODAY? LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Land Value Taxation CY JAN, 1998 CL TEMPE, AZ SP Lincoln Inst Land Policy, Lincoln Fdn C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 1 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU LINCOLN INST LAND POLICY PI CAMBRIDGE PA 113 BRATTLE ST, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02138 USA BN 1-55844-133-6 PY 1998 BP 205 EP 209 PG 5 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA BM91G UT WOS:000080112100013 ER PT J AU Daly, MC Duncan, GJ Kaplan, GA Lynch, JW AF Daly, MC Duncan, GJ Kaplan, GA Lynch, JW TI Macro-to-micro links in the relation between income inequality and mortality SO MILBANK QUARTERLY LA English DT Article ID UNITED-STATES; LIFE EXPECTANCY; ALAMEDA COUNTY; HEALTH; POVERTY; DIFFERENTIALS; TRENDS AB A growing literature points to links between income inequality and mortality. Any examination of che link should distinguish, both theoretically and empirically, between shifts in inequality that result from changes in the bottom and top of the income distribution. When state-level data from the U.S. censuses of 1980 and 1990 were used to measure differences in mortality, the results indicated that inequality measures reflecting depth of poverty show stronger correlations with mortality than do inequality measures reflecting heights of affluence. In addition, longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics were used to relate state-level inequality measures to individual-level data on mortality. This comparison revealed significant associations between degree of income inequality in state of residence and individual risk of death only for nonelderly individuals with middle-class incomes in 1990. C1 Northwestern Univ, Inst Policy Res, Evanston, IL 60208 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, San Francisco, CA USA. RP Duncan, GJ (reprint author), Northwestern Univ, Inst Policy Res, 2040 Sheridan Rd, Evanston, IL 60208 USA. RI Lynch, John/A-4797-2008 OI Lynch, John/0000-0003-2781-7902 NR 39 TC 135 Z9 137 U1 1 U2 11 PU BLACKWELL PUBLISHERS PI MALDEN PA 350 MAIN STREET, STE 6, MALDEN, MA 02148 USA SN 0887-378X J9 MILBANK Q JI Milbank Q. PY 1998 VL 76 IS 3 BP 315 EP + DI 10.1111/1468-0009.00094 PG 27 WC Health Care Sciences & Services; Health Policy & Services SC Health Care Sciences & Services GA 115FM UT WOS:000075652900003 PM 9738166 ER PT J AU Fortune, P AF Fortune, P TI Mutual funds, Part II: Fund flows and security returns SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Mutual funds played a very small role in the financial system until the 1970s, before which ownership of financial instruments was dominated by commercial banks, thrift institutions, insurance companies, and pension funds. The financial system of the 1990s is not simply the system of the 1970s with more mutual funds, however. Evolution in financial laws and regulations, increasing global interactions, the rise of new financial instruments, major shifts in the structure and nature of financial institutions, and a change in the locus of risk-bearing from institutions to individuals have also shaped investors' decisions. The goal of this study is to assess the historical evidence to see whether the interactions between mutual fund inflows and outflows and asset prices are potentially destabilizing to security markets. The author addresses some issues of shareholder behavior and the differences between direct ownership and pooled ownership of securities. He presents an econometric analysis of the interactions between security returns and mutual fund flows, and he uses his model to trace out the effect of shocks to security returns and fund flows. In contrast to previous studies, he finds that security returns do affect future fund flows, and that some fund flows do affect future security returns. But he finds no persistence in security returns-shocks to, say, stock returns do not imply further changes in stock returns, so the rationale for momentum trading over longer period finds no support. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Fortune, P (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 15 TC 13 Z9 13 U1 0 U2 4 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JAN-FEB PY 1998 BP 3 EP + PG 21 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZC768 UT WOS:000072615900001 ER PT J AU Jordan, JS AF Jordan, JS TI Problem loans at New England Banks, 1989 to 1992: Evidence of aggressive loan policies SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID EFFICIENCY; RISK AB The New England banking industry experienced serious problems between 1989 and 1992. As the region's economy deteriorated, banks failed at an unprecedented rate and many others barely survived. Banking problems were widespread, but they were not uniform. The ratio of nonperforming loans to total loans was in excess of 10 percent for some New England banks, below 1 percent for others, even though all faced the external shock of the collapse in the region's real estate market. This study attempts to determine whether a 'skills' hypothesis or a 'policies' hypothesis better explains the differences among banks in the severity of their loan problems. The 'skills' hypothesis posits that banks with the greatest loan problems were those that employed managers with deficient skills. The 'policies' hypothesis posits that banks with the greatest loan problems were those that chose higher loan-to-asset ratios, held a greater concentration of riskier types of loans, or accepted riskier loan customers. The author uses an analysis of profit and cost efficiency to help identify the hypothesis that better explains the disparity. He finds evidence in support of the 'policies' hypothesis. Conscious decisions by bank managers regarding the riskiness of their loan portfolios, as well as the level of capital to hold, help explain why some New England banks were able to survive the real estate crisis while others failed. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Jordan, JS (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 20 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 3 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JAN-FEB PY 1998 BP 23 EP + PG 18 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZC768 UT WOS:000072615900002 ER PT J AU Kodrzycki, YK AF Kodrzycki, YK TI Fiscal pressures and the privatization of local services SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB The privatization movement appears to have lost some momentum in the United States over the 1990s. Although local governments continue to look for ways to deliver services more efficiently by using private contractors, the pace at which they are issuing contracts has slowed. In part, the trends may reflect political realities. Public employees naturally are concerned about losing their jobs, and they constitute a sizable share of the electorate. The limited role of outside contractors may also reflect economic pragmatism, especially in the face of greater scrutiny of past efforts to privatize services. Another influence may be the improving fiscal position of local governments. To the extent privatization has been a response to fiscal pressures, the growing fiscal comfort of local governments would lessen the degree to which they seek out low-cost providers. The author reviews trends in outside contracting by cities and towns between 1987 and 1992 and uses regression analysis to sort out the various influences. The results confirm that fiscal pressures, as evidenced by heavy debt burdens, did spur privatization in the early 1990s. She then examines localities' decisions to drop services altogether, and finds that contracting out and reducing services appear to have been alternatives over this period. Cities and towns tended to choose one or the other course of action, not both. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Kodrzycki, YK (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 16 TC 32 Z9 32 U1 0 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JAN-FEB PY 1998 BP 39 EP + PG 13 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZC768 UT WOS:000072615900003 ER PT B AU Moskow, MH AF Moskow, MH BE Caprio, G Hunter, WC Kaufman, GG Leipziger, DM TI Regulatory efforts to prevent banking crises SO PREVENTING BANK CRISES: LESSONS FROM RECENT GLOBAL BANK FAILURES SE EDI DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Preventing Banks Crises: Lessons from Recent Global Bank Failures CY JUN, 1997 CL CHICAGO, IL SP Fed Reserve Bank, World Bank, Inst Econ Dev ID FINANCE; GROWTH C1 Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Chicago, IL USA. NR 13 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 7 U2 7 PU WORLD BANK INST PI WASHINGTON PA 1818 H ST NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20433 USA BN 0-8213-4202-9 J9 EDI DEV STUD PY 1998 BP 13 EP 26 PG 14 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA BQ13V UT WOS:000087280000002 ER PT B AU Evanoff, DD AF Evanoff, DD BE Caprio, G Hunter, WC Kaufman, GG Leipziger, DM TI Global banking crises: Commonalities, mistakes, and lessons SO PREVENTING BANK CRISES: LESSONS FROM RECENT GLOBAL BANK FAILURES SE EDI DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Preventing Banks Crises: Lessons from Recent Global Bank Failures CY JUN, 1997 CL CHICAGO, IL SP Fed Reserve Bank, World Bank, Inst Econ Dev C1 Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Chicago, IL USA. NR 9 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 3 U2 3 PU WORLD BANK INST PI WASHINGTON PA 1818 H ST NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20433 USA BN 0-8213-4202-9 J9 EDI DEV STUD PY 1998 BP 249 EP 254 PG 6 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA BQ13V UT WOS:000087280000014 ER PT B AU Truman, EM AF Truman, EM BE Caprio, G Hunter, WC Kaufman, GG Leipziger, DM TI What can and should be done to prevent future financial crises? SO PREVENTING BANK CRISES: LESSONS FROM RECENT GLOBAL BANK FAILURES SE EDI DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Preventing Banks Crises: Lessons from Recent Global Bank Failures CY JUN, 1997 CL CHICAGO, IL SP Fed Reserve Bank, World Bank, Inst Econ Dev C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Washington, DC USA. NR 2 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU WORLD BANK INST PI WASHINGTON PA 1818 H ST NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20433 USA BN 0-8213-4202-9 J9 EDI DEV STUD PY 1998 BP 333 EP 338 PG 6 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA BQ13V UT WOS:000087280000022 ER PT B AU Gilsen, B AF Gilsen, B GP SAS USERS GRP INT SAS USERS GRP INT SAS USERS GRP INT TI SAS (R) program efficiency for beginners SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE TWENTY-THIRD ANNUAL SAS USERS GROUP INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 23rd Annual SAS-Users-Group International Conference (SUGI 23) CY MAR 22-25, 1998 CL NASHVILLE, TN SP SAS Users Grp C1 Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20051 USA. RP Gilsen, B (reprint author), Fed Reserve Board, Mail Stop 171, Washington, DC 20051 USA. NR 4 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU SAS INST INC PI CARY PA SAS CIRCLE, PO BOX 8000, CARY, NC 27511 USA BN 1-58025-149-8 PY 1998 BP 310 EP 319 PG 10 WC Computer Science, Information Systems; Computer Science, Software Engineering SC Computer Science GA BN07X UT WOS:000080606400046 ER PT B AU Taubman, S AF Taubman, S GP SAS USERS GRP INT SAS USERS GRP INT SAS USERS GRP INT TI Moving data between SAS (R) and FAME SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE TWENTY-THIRD ANNUAL SAS USERS GROUP INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 23rd Annual SAS-Users-Group International Conference (SUGI 23) CY MAR 22-25, 1998 CL NASHVILLE, TN SP SAS Users Grp AB FAME (Forecasting, Analysis, and Modeling Environment) is a time series database product of FAME Software Corporation. This paper will describe two SAS macros. The first, GETFAME, copies time series from a FAME database into a SAS dataset. The second macro, PUTFAME, writes SAS variables into a FAME database. The macros pass user input to a FORTRAN program which utilizes subroutines that access FAME databases. These subroutines are the Host Language Interface (or HLI) routines written by FAME Software Corporation. HLI, which is an application programming interface with FAME, can be called by either FORTRAN or C programs. The FORTRAN program called by PUTFAME reads parameters passed by the SAS macro and writes data into a FAME database. The FORTRAN program called by GETFAME reads the parameters passed by SAS, and retrieves FAME time series. It then passes the FAME series back to SAS. PUTFAME is used when data is read from its source by SAS before it is stored as FAME data. These programs are executed under UNIX on SOLARIS 2. To understand this paper, one must be familiar with SAS macros and also have FAME experience. Knowledge of FORIRAN would be helpful. C1 Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Taubman, S (reprint author), Fed Reserve Board, Mail Stop 096, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU SAS INST INC PI CARY PA SAS CIRCLE, PO BOX 8000, CARY, NC 27511 USA BN 1-58025-149-8 PY 1998 BP 1156 EP 1157 PG 2 WC Computer Science, Information Systems; Computer Science, Software Engineering SC Computer Science GA BN07X UT WOS:000080606400194 ER PT B AU Siregar, RY AF Siregar, RY BE Dutta, M Hooley, R Mahani, ZA TI Inflation and exchange rate management in Indonesia SO RESEARCH IN ASIAN ECONOMIC STUDIES, VOL 8 - 1998 SE RESEARCH IN ASIAN ECONOMIC STUDIES LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Symposium on the New Industrial Revolution in Asian Economies CY MAY 14-17, 1996 CL UNIV MALAYA, KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA SP Amer Comm Asian Econ Studies, Malaysian Econ Assoc HO UNIV MALAYA C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Ctr Pacific Basin Monatary & Econ Studies, San Francisco, CA USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU JAI PRESS INC PI STAMFORD PA 100 PROSPECT STREET, STAMFORD, CT 06901-1640 USA BN 0-7623-0199-6 J9 RES ASIA ES PY 1998 VL 8 BP 95 EP 112 PG 18 WC Area Studies; Economics; Planning & Development SC Area Studies; Business & Economics; Public Administration GA BK97V UT WOS:000073977000006 ER PT B AU Evanoff, DD AF Evanoff, DD BE Kaufman, GG TI Financial crises and 'market regulation' - Comment SO RESEARCH IN FINANCIAL SERVICES: PRIVATE AND PUBLIC POLICY, VOL 10 - 1998: BANK CRISES: CAUSES, ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION SE RESEARCH IN FINANCIAL SERVICES: PRIVATE AND PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 73rd Annual Meeting of the Western-Economic-Association-International CY JUN 28-JUL 02, 1998 CL LAKE TAHOE, NV SP Western Econ Assoc C1 Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Chicago, IL USA. NR 26 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU JAI PRESS INC PI STAMFORD PA 100 PROSPECT STREET, STAMFORD, CT 06901-1640 USA BN 0-7623-0358-1 J9 RES FIN SERV PY 1998 VL 10 BP 165 EP 173 PG 9 WC Business, Finance; Economics; International Relations; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; International Relations; Public Administration GA BM42K UT WOS:000078684500011 ER PT B AU Gilbert, RA Vaughan, MD AF Gilbert, RA Vaughan, MD BE Kaufman, GG TI Does the publication of supervisory enforcement actions add to market discipline? SO RESEARCH IN FINANCIAL SERVICES: PRIVATE AND PUBLIC POLICY, VOL 10 - 1998: BANK CRISES: CAUSES, ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION SE RESEARCH IN FINANCIAL SERVICES: PRIVATE AND PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 73rd Annual Meeting of the Western-Economic-Association-International CY JUN 28-JUL 02, 1998 CL LAKE TAHOE, NV SP Western Econ Assoc ID RISK C1 Fed Reserve Bank St Louis, St Louis, MO 63102 USA. NR 20 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 3 U2 3 PU JAI PRESS INC PI STAMFORD PA 100 PROSPECT STREET, STAMFORD, CT 06901-1640 USA BN 0-7623-0358-1 J9 RES FIN SERV PY 1998 VL 10 BP 259 EP 280 PG 22 WC Business, Finance; Economics; International Relations; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; International Relations; Public Administration GA BM42K UT WOS:000078684500014 ER PT J AU Kehoe, PJ AF Kehoe, PJ TI Comment on M. Obstfeld, Open-economy macroeconomics: Developments in theory and policy SO SCANDINAVIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Penn, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. RP Kehoe, PJ (reprint author), Univ Penn, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. NR 2 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD OX4 1JF, OXON, ENGLAND SN 0347-0520 J9 SCAND J ECON JI Scand. J. Econ. PY 1998 VL 100 IS 1 BP 277 EP 283 DI 10.1111/1467-9442.00102 PG 7 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZW898 UT WOS:000074459400025 ER PT J AU Ericsson, NR Hendry, DF Prestwich, KM AF Ericsson, NR Hendry, DF Prestwich, KM TI The demand for broad money in the United Kingdom, 1878-1993 SO SCANDINAVIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 100th Anniversary Symposium of the Scandinavian Journal of Economics on Public Policy and Economic Theory CY JAN, 1997 CL LYSEBU, NORWAY SP Scandinavian Journal Econ ID LAGGED DEPENDENT-VARIABLES; MODELS; HETEROSKEDASTICITY; HETEROSCEDASTICITY; EXOGENEITY AB Using annual data from Friedman and Schwartz (1982), Hendry and Ericsson (1991a) developed an empirical model of the demand for broad money in the United Kingdom over 1878-1975. We update that model over 1976-1993, accounting for changed data definitions and clarifying the concept of constancy. With appropriate measures of opportunity cost and credit deregulation, the model's parameters are empirically constant over the extended sample, which was economically turbulent. Policy implications follow for parameter nonconstancy and predictive failure, causation between money and prices, monetary targeting, deregulation and financial innovation, and the effect of policy on economic agents' behavior. C1 Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Univ Oxford Nuffield Coll, Oxford OX1 1NF, England. Amer Management Syst Inc, Fairfax, VA 22033 USA. RP Ericsson, NR (reprint author), Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 70 TC 30 Z9 30 U1 1 U2 3 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD OX4 1JF, OXON, ENGLAND SN 0347-0520 J9 SCAND J ECON JI Scand. J. Econ. PY 1998 VL 100 IS 1 BP 289 EP 324 DI 10.1111/1467-9442.00103 PG 36 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZW898 UT WOS:000074459400027 ER PT J AU Cecchetti, SG Kashyap, AK Wilcox, DW AF Cecchetti, SG Kashyap, AK Wilcox, DW TI Interactions between the seasonal and business cycles in production and inventories SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID PRODUCTION-SMOOTHING MODEL; BEHAVIOR AB This paper shows that in several U.S. manufacturing industries, the seasonal variability of production and inventories varies with the state of the business cycle. We present a simple model which implies that if firms reduce the seasonal variability of their production as the economy strengthens, and they either hold constant or increase the stock of inventories they bring into the high-production seasons of the year, then they must be facing upward-sloping and convex marginal cost curves. We conclude that firms in a number of industries face upward-sloping and convex marginal-production-cost curves. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, Res, New York, NY 10045 USA. Ohio State Univ, Dept Econ, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Univ Chicago, Grad Sch Business, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, Chicago, IL USA. Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Monetary Affairs, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Cecchetti, SG (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, Res, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 27 TC 21 Z9 21 U1 0 U2 5 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD DEC PY 1997 VL 87 IS 5 BP 884 EP 892 PG 9 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YR405 UT WOS:000071492000005 ER PT J AU Carlstrom, CT Fuerst, TS AF Carlstrom, CT Fuerst, TS TI Agency costs, net worth, and business fluctuations: A computable general equilibrium analysis SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION; DEBT CONTRACTS; LABOR-MARKET; CYCLE; DYNAMICS; SEARCH AB This paper develops a computable general equilibrium model in which endogenous agency costs can potentially alter business-cycle dynamics. A principal conclusion is that the agency-cost model replicates the empirical fact that output growth displays positive autocorrelation at short horizons. This hump-shaped output behavior arises because households delay their investment decisions until agency costs are at their lowest-a point in time several periods after the initial shock. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Cleveland, OH 44101 USA. Bowling Green State Univ, Dept Econ, Bowling Green, OH 43403 USA. RP Carlstrom, CT (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Cleveland, OH 44101 USA. NR 28 TC 256 Z9 257 U1 6 U2 18 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD DEC PY 1997 VL 87 IS 5 BP 893 EP 910 PG 18 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YR405 UT WOS:000071492000006 ER PT J AU Chari, VV Jones, LE Marimon, R AF Chari, VV Jones, LE Marimon, R TI The economics of split-ticket voting in representative democracies SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID DIVIDED PARTY CONTROL; TERM LIMITS; GOVERNMENT AB In U.S. elections, voters often vote for candidates from different parties for president and Congress. Voters also express dissatisfaction with the performance of Congress as a whole and satisfaction with their own representative. We develop a model of split-ticket voting in which government spending is financed by uniform taxes. The benefits from this spending are concentrated. While the model generates split-ticket voting, overall spending is too high only if the president's powers are limited. Overall spending is too high in a parliamentary system. Our model can be used as the basis of an argument for term limits. C1 Univ Minnesota, Dept Econ, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Res Dept, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. Northwestern Univ, JL Kellogg Grad Sch Management, Evanston, IL 60208 USA. Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. European Univ Inst, Dept Econ, San Domenico Di Fiesole, FL, Italy. Univ Pompeu Fabra, Dept Econ, Barcelona, Spain. RP Chari, VV (reprint author), Univ Minnesota, Dept Econ, 271 19th Ave S, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. NR 29 TC 62 Z9 62 U1 2 U2 8 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD DEC PY 1997 VL 87 IS 5 BP 957 EP 976 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YR405 UT WOS:000071492000010 ER PT J AU Bhala, R AF Bhala, R TI Equilibrium theory, the FICAS model, and international banking law SO HARVARD INTERNATIONAL LAW JOURNAL LA English DT Article ID FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS REFORM; ENFORCEMENT ACT; STANDARDS; RECOVERY C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045. RP Bhala, R (reprint author), COLL WILLIAM & MARY,SCH LAW,GRAD PROGRAM,WILLIAMSBURG,VA 23187, USA. NR 235 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 1 PU HARVARD LAW SCHOOL PI CAMBRIDGE PA PUBLICATIONS CTR, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02138 SN 0017-8063 J9 HARVARD INT LAW J JI Harv. Int. Law J. PD WIN PY 1997 VL 38 IS 1 BP 1 EP 57 PG 57 WC Law SC Government & Law GA WM735 UT WOS:A1997WM73500001 ER PT J AU Melick, WR AF Melick, WR TI Currency forecasting - Rosenberg,MR SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING LA English DT Book Review RP Melick, WR (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,INT FINANCE DIV,WASHINGTON,DC, USA. NR 3 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0169-2070 J9 INT J FORECASTING JI Int. J. Forecast. PD DEC PY 1997 VL 13 IS 4 BP 583 EP 584 DI 10.1016/S0169-2070(97)00038-1 PG 2 WC Economics; Management SC Business & Economics GA YJ842 UT WOS:A1997YJ84200015 ER PT J AU Marquez, J AF Marquez, J TI Nonstationary time series analysis and cointegration - Hargreaves,C SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING LA English DT Book Review RP Marquez, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0169-2070 J9 INT J FORECASTING JI Int. J. Forecast. PD DEC PY 1997 VL 13 IS 4 BP 584 EP 586 DI 10.1016/S0169-2070(97)00037-X PG 3 WC Economics; Management SC Business & Economics GA YJ842 UT WOS:A1997YJ84200016 ER PT J AU Hancock, D Humphrey, DB AF Hancock, D Humphrey, DB TI Payment transactions, instruments, and systems: A survey SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Review DE cash; checks; giro; settlement; risk ID FEDERAL-RESERVE; TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE; ALTERNATIVE MONIES; MONEY; CURRENCY; MONETARY; DEMAND; EFFICIENCY; ECONOMIES; BEHAVIOR AB The payments literature ranges from theoretical general equilibrium models to practical payment issues related to the day-to-day operation of various national networks for the transfer of money. It is an area where economic theory and institutional structure are often closely intertwined and it is currently undergoing significant change, shifting from costly paper-based systems to technologically advanced electronic payments. The extant literature is surveyed here with the aim of integrating the various strands of payment research which have been largely pursued separately. In addition, we present newly available data to illustrate and investigate a number of underdeveloped areas in this literature. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Florida State Univ, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA. RP Hancock, D (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Mail Stop 188, Washington, DC 20551 USA. EM mldxh@fed.frb.gov NR 131 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD DEC PY 1997 VL 21 IS 11-12 BP 1573 EP 1624 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(97)00046-0 PG 52 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA ZG488 UT WOS:000073008700006 ER PT J AU Wheelock, DC AF Wheelock, DC TI The banking panics of the great depression - Wicker,E SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY LA English DT Book Review RP Wheelock, DC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK,ST LOUIS,MO, USA. RI Wheelock, David/I-5757-2016 OI Wheelock, David/0000-0002-2702-8164 NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS PI NEW YORK PA 40 WEST 20TH STREET, NEW YORK, NY 10011-4211 SN 0022-0507 J9 J ECON HIST JI J. Econ. Hist. PD DEC PY 1997 VL 57 IS 4 BP 977 EP 978 PG 2 WC Economics; History; History Of Social Sciences SC Business & Economics; History; Social Sciences - Other Topics GA YK675 UT WOS:A1997YK67500021 ER PT J AU Spiegel, MM AF Spiegel, MM TI Debt games: Strategic interaction in international debt rescheduling - Aggarwal,VK SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE LA English DT Book Review RP Spiegel, MM (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK,SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94105, USA. NR 3 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0022-0515 J9 J ECON LIT JI J. Econ. Lit. PD DEC PY 1997 VL 35 IS 4 BP 2054 EP 2055 PG 2 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YH373 UT WOS:A1997YH37300016 ER PT J AU Dwyer, GP AF Dwyer, GP TI The economics of financial markets - Houthakker,HS, Williamson,PJ SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE LA English DT Book Review C1 FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,ATLANTA,GA. RP Dwyer, GP (reprint author), CLEMSON UNIV,CLEMSON,SC 29631, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0022-0515 J9 J ECON LIT JI J. Econ. Lit. PD DEC PY 1997 VL 35 IS 4 BP 2059 EP 2061 PG 3 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YH373 UT WOS:A1997YH37300020 ER PT J AU Corrado, C Mattey, J AF Corrado, C Mattey, J TI Capacity utilization SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Article ID RETURNS; PRICE C1 FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO,SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94105. RP Corrado, C (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,IND OUTPUT SECT,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 37 TC 52 Z9 53 U1 0 U2 1 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0895-3309 J9 J ECON PERSPECT JI J. Econ. Perspect. PD WIN PY 1997 VL 11 IS 1 BP 151 EP 167 PG 17 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WK414 UT WOS:A1997WK41400009 ER PT J AU Neely, C Weller, P Dittmar, R AF Neely, C Weller, P Dittmar, R TI Is technical analysis in the foreign exchange market profitable? A genetic programming approach SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL AND QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS LA English DT Article ID TRADING-RULE PROFITS AB Using genetic programming techniques to find technical trading rules, we find strong evidence of economically significant out-of-sample excess returns to those rules for each of six exchange rates over the period 1981-1995. Further, when the dollar/Deutsche mark rules are allowed to determine trades in the other markets, there is significant improvement in performance in all cases, except for the Deutsche mark/yen. Betas calculated for the returns according to various benchmark portfolios provide no evidence that the returns to these rules are compensation for bearing systematic risk. Bootstrapping results on the dollar/Deutsche mark indicate that the trading rules detect patterns in the data that are not captured by standard statistical models. C1 Fed Reserve Bank St Louis, Res Dept, St Louis, MO 63011 USA. Univ Iowa, Coll Business Adm, Dept Finance, Iowa City, IA 52242 USA. RP Neely, C (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank St Louis, Res Dept, St Louis, MO 63011 USA. RI Neely, Christopher/D-3636-2012; Neely, Christopher/I-5749-2016 OI Neely, Christopher/0000-0003-2852-9419 NR 24 TC 208 Z9 211 U1 6 U2 24 PU UNIV WASHINGTON PI SEATTLE PA GRAD SCH OF BUSINESS ADMIN, SEATTLE, WA 98105 USA SN 0022-1090 J9 J FINANC QUANT ANAL JI J. Financ. Quant. Anal. PD DEC PY 1997 VL 32 IS 4 BP 405 EP 426 DI 10.2307/2331231 PG 22 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA YN848 UT WOS:000071214200002 ER PT J AU David, A AF David, A TI Fluctuating confidence in stock markets: Implications for returns and volatility SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL AND QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS LA English DT Article ID ASSET PRICING MODEL; INCOMPLETE INFORMATION; INTEREST-RATES; ECONOMY; TIME; RISK; HETEROSKEDASTICITY; UNEMPLOYMENT; PRICES AB The average relative profitability of different firms in the economy jumps erratically. Although investors are unable to observe these productivity switches, they continuously update their beliefs regarding high and low productivity firms by observing the total return on each firm, which consists of the average productivity plus noise, The portfolio choices, interest rate, and stock return processes are derived in a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (1985a) style general equilibrium model. Three stylized facts of stock market returns are addressed: negative skewness, excess kurtosis, and predictive asymmetry (excess returns and future changes in volatility are negatively correlated). To measure the last stylized fact, an EGARCH model is fitted to sample paths simulated from the model. Parameter values that permit faster learning fit the three facts better. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Res & Stat, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP David, A (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Res & Stat, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 45 TC 65 Z9 65 U1 1 U2 5 PU UNIV WASHINGTON PI SEATTLE PA GRAD SCH OF BUSINESS ADMIN, SEATTLE, WA 98105 USA SN 0022-1090 J9 J FINANC QUANT ANAL JI J. Financ. Quant. Anal. PD DEC PY 1997 VL 32 IS 4 BP 427 EP 462 DI 10.2307/2331232 PG 36 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA YN848 UT WOS:000071214200003 ER PT J AU Moreno, R AF Moreno, R TI Saving-investment dynamics and capital mobility in the US and Japan SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE LA English DT Article ID COINTEGRATION; DEFICIT; BUDGET AB This paper points out that a high long-run correlation between saving and investment is better interpreted as reflecting the operation of a country's intertemporal budget constraint rather than as an indicator of capital mobility. Inferences about capital mobility can instead hi: made from the divergent short-run dynamic responses of saving and investment to shocks. Using post-war quarterly data for the US and japan, the paper assesses the characteristics of saving and investment behavior under different regulatory environments. It finds mixed evidence of changes in the short-run dynamics of saving and investment that suggest increased capital mobility in the 1980s. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. RP Moreno, R (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO, ECON RES DEPT, 101 MARKET ST, SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94105 USA. NR 22 TC 17 Z9 18 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD PI OXFORD PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, OXON, ENGLAND SN 0261-5606 J9 J INT MONEY FINANC JI J. Int. Money Finan. PD DEC PY 1997 VL 16 IS 6 BP 837 EP 863 DI 10.1016/S0261-5606(97)00040-5 PG 27 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA YJ412 UT WOS:A1997YJ41200002 ER PT J AU Baillie, RT Osterberg, WP AF Baillie, RT Osterberg, WP TI Why do central banks intervene? SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE LA English DT Article ID FOREIGN-EXCHANGE INTERVENTION; MODELS; RATES; MATTER; DOLLAR AB Intervention by central banks, in terms of buying and selling foreign currency, has been a major activity in recent years. This paper investigates the motivations for such policy and the evidence for its effectiveness. We use high quality daily data on the dollar amounts of intervention by the central banks of the US and Germany. We also use information on agreed G7 target levels for the $/DM and $/Yen nominal exchange rates. Daily, nominal dollar exchange rate returns are well described as a Martingale-GARCH process, and we find little evidence that the different types of intervention have had much effect on the conditional mean of exchange rate returns. There is some evidence that intervention is associated with slight increases in the volatility of exchange rate returns. While little evidence is found for the effectiveness of intervention, the motivations are more clear. In particular, from the application cf probit analysis we find that the probability of intervention is determined by the magnitude of the deviation of the nominal exchange rate from the agreed target level and, to a lesser extent, by the current volatility of exchange rates. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. C1 FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44126. RP Baillie, RT (reprint author), MICHIGAN STATE UNIV,E LANSING,MI 48824, USA. NR 35 TC 60 Z9 62 U1 1 U2 5 PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD PI OXFORD PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX5 1GB SN 0261-5606 J9 J INT MONEY FINANC JI J. Int. Money Finan. PD DEC PY 1997 VL 16 IS 6 BP 909 EP 919 DI 10.1016/S0261-5606(97)00012-0 PG 11 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA YJ412 UT WOS:A1997YJ41200006 ER PT J AU Ingram, BF Kocherlakota, NR Savin, NE AF Ingram, BF Kocherlakota, NR Savin, NE TI Using theory for measurement: An analysis of the cyclical behavior of home production SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE real business cycle models; labor hours; business cycle fluctuations ID BUSINESS-CYCLE; HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTION AB A significant amount of economic activity takes place within the home. Unfortunately, it is difficult to assess the cyclical properties of home production because the available data are too sporadic. Using a real business cycle (RBC) model, we construct quarterly data on three variables that are unobservable at a quarterly frequency: hours worked in the home sector, hours spent in leisure, and the consumption of home-produced goods. Three results emerge: leisure is countercyclical while nonmarket hours are acyclical; hours spent in home production have declined significantly since the 1970s; fluctuations in market output are a good measure of fluctuations in individual utility as long as home and market consumption are either extreme complements or extreme substitutes in the production of utility. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Iowa, Dept Econ, Iowa City, IA 52242 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Res Dept, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. RP Ingram, BF (reprint author), Univ Iowa, Dept Econ, Iowa City, IA 52242 USA. NR 17 TC 19 Z9 19 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD DEC PY 1997 VL 40 IS 3 BP 435 EP 456 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(97)00058-5 PG 22 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA YQ884 UT WOS:000071434100001 ER PT J AU Wallace, N Zhou, RL AF Wallace, N Zhou, RL TI A model of a currency shortage SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE indivisible money; currency shortage; export of coins ID MONEY AB Until the mid-19th century, shortages of currency were common. Moreover, a frequent policy response was a prohibition on the export of coins. We use a random matching model with indivisible money to explain a shortage and to judge the desirability of a prohibition on the export of coins. The model, although extreme in many regards, represents better than earlier models a demand for outside money and the problems that arise when that money is indivisible. It can also rationalize a prohibition on the export of money. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Penn State Univ, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. Univ Penn, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. RP Wallace, N (reprint author), Penn State Univ, 613 Kern Grad Bldg, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. NR 14 TC 15 Z9 15 U1 0 U2 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD DEC PY 1997 VL 40 IS 3 BP 555 EP 572 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(97)00053-6 PG 18 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA YQ884 UT WOS:000071434100005 ER PT J AU Hornstein, A Praschnik, J AF Hornstein, A Praschnik, J TI Intermediate inputs and sectoral comovement in the business cycle SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE real business cycles; multi-sector growth model; comovement ID DEMAND; ENERGY; TIME AB The post-war US business cycle is characterized by positive comovement of employment and output across sectors. It has been argued that multi-sector growth models are inconsistent with this observation when changes in relative productivities are the main source of fluctuations. We suggest that the input-output structure of an economy, in particular the pervasive use of intermediate inputs, can induce positive comovement in sectoral employment and output following changes in relative productivities. We calibrate a model of the US economy for the durable and nondurable goods producing sectors, and show that sectoral employment and output move together if intermediate inputs are used in production. The model is also consistent with the observation that the relative price of nondurable goods is procyclical. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Res Dept, Richmond, VA 23261 USA. Univ Western Ontario, Dept Econ, London, ON N6A 5C2, Canada. Citibank, New York, NY 10005 USA. RP Hornstein, A (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Res Dept, POB 27622, Richmond, VA 23261 USA. NR 35 TC 40 Z9 40 U1 1 U2 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD DEC PY 1997 VL 40 IS 3 BP 573 EP 595 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(97)00056-1 PG 23 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA YQ884 UT WOS:000071434100006 ER PT J AU Rolnick, AJ Weber, WE AF Rolnick, AJ Weber, WE TI Money, inflation, and output under fiat and commodity standards SO JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Article AB We examine the behavior of money, inflation, and output under fiat and commodity standards to better understand how changes in monetary policy affect economic activity. Using long-term historical data for 15 countries, we find that, under fiat standards, the growth rates of various monetary aggregates are more highly correlated with inflation and with each other than under commodity standards. Money growth, inflation, and output growth are also higher. In contrast, we do not find that money growth is more highly correlated with output growth under one standard than under the other. C1 UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. RP Rolnick, AJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480, USA. NR 16 TC 20 Z9 21 U1 1 U2 5 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0022-3808 J9 J POLIT ECON JI J. Polit. Econ. PD DEC PY 1997 VL 105 IS 6 BP 1308 EP 1321 DI 10.1086/516394 PG 14 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YH389 UT WOS:A1997YH38900007 ER PT J AU David, A AF David, A TI Controlling information premia by repackaging asset-backed securities SO JOURNAL OF RISK AND INSURANCE LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Risk Management in Insurance Firms CY MAY, 1996 CL WHARTON SCH AT UNIV PENN, PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA SP Univ Penn, Wharton Sch, J Risk & Insurance HO WHARTON SCH AT UNIV PENN ID MARKET; COMPETITION; LIQUIDITY; FUTURES AB Securities created from a base of underlying receivables are sold to uninformed "individual" and "institutional" hedgers. Institutions are more sophisticated than individuals because they are aware of the information-based transactions costs of all currently open markets and minimize transaction costs by trading in optimal portfolios. We show that profits earned from individuals can be optimized by changing the correlation coefficient between sets of receivables backing different securities, but profits earned from institutions are immune to changes in the correlation and can be controlled only by altering the number of securities created. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Div Res & Stat, Capital Markets Sect, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP David, A (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Div Res & Stat, Capital Markets Sect, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 22 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 1 U2 5 PU AMER RISK INSURANCE ASSOC, INC PI MT VERNON PA C/O CHASE COMMUNICATIONS, STEVE ACUNTO, BOX 9001, MT VERNON, NY 10552 USA SN 0022-4367 J9 J RISK INSUR JI J. Risk Insur. PD DEC PY 1997 VL 64 IS 4 BP 619 EP 648 DI 10.2307/253889 PG 30 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA YX362 UT WOS:000072032600004 ER PT J AU Engel, C Hendrickson, MK Rogers, JH AF Engel, C Hendrickson, MK Rogers, JH TI Intranational, intracontinental, and intraplanetary PPP SO JOURNAL OF THE JAPANESE AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIES LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Purchasing Power Parity Revisited - the Exchange Rate and Price Movements, Theory and Evidence CY DEC 20-21, 1996 CL TOKYO, JAPAN SP Tokyo Ctr Econ Res, Natl Bur Econ Res, Japan, Ctr Econ Policy Res, Japan ID PURCHASING POWER PARITY; REAL EXCHANGE-RATES; UNIT-ROOT TESTS AB A model of adjustment toward PPP for a panel of real exchange rates is introduced that allows varying speeds of convergence within nations, within continents and across continents. We allow for correlation across equations in our panel, and estimate the model using generalized least squares. The panel consists of the price levels of eight cities in four countries and two continents. We do not find evidence in favor of reversion to PPP for any group of cities. (C) 1997 Academic Press. C1 Univ Washington, Dept Econ, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Fed Reserve Board, Int Finance Div, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Engel, C (reprint author), Univ Washington, Dept Econ, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. NR 24 TC 14 Z9 15 U1 0 U2 1 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 USA SN 0889-1583 J9 J JPN INT ECON JI J. Jpn. Inst. Econ. PD DEC PY 1997 VL 11 IS 4 BP 480 EP 501 DI 10.1006/jjie.1997.0388 PG 22 WC Economics; International Relations SC Business & Economics; International Relations GA YV244 UT WOS:000071803800003 ER PT J AU Engen, E AF Engen, E TI Distributional analysis of tax policy. SO NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL LA English DT Book Review C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Engen, E (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 6 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU NATL TAX ASSN PI COLUMBUS PA 5310 EAST MAIN ST, COLUMBUS, OH 43213 USA SN 0028-0283 J9 NATL TAX J JI Natl. Tax J. PD DEC PY 1997 VL 50 IS 4 BP 805 EP 809 PG 5 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA YM845 UT WOS:000071107300007 ER PT J AU Alvarez, RM Saving, JL AF Alvarez, RM Saving, JL TI Deficits, democrats, and distributive benefits: Congressional elections and the pork barrel in the 1980s SO POLITICAL RESEARCH QUARTERLY LA English DT Article AB In this study, we examine the extent to which legislators receive electoral benefits from altering the geographic distribution of federal outlays. Although there are both theoretical and anecdotal reasons to believe in the existence of such benefits, previous empirical work has largely failed to verify the connection between pork barreling and reelection. We examine House incumbents during the 1980s, when budget deficits were allegedly forcing legislators to end the acquisition of distributive benefits, and we discover that legislators did in fact reap electoral benefits from pork barreling in the 1980s. We further discover that there is a sharp partisan difference in the marginal effects of federal outlays: additional federal monies strongly affect Democratic reelection margins but barely impact the electoral fortunes of Republicans. This conclusion has important implications for current debates about Congress, divided government, and the recent Republican takeover of Congress. C1 CALTECH, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Dallas, Dallas, TX USA. RP Alvarez, RM (reprint author), CALTECH, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA. NR 46 TC 41 Z9 41 U1 0 U2 2 PU UNIV UTAH PI SALT LAKE CITY PA WESTERN POLITICAL QUARTERLY, SALT LAKE CITY, UT 84112 USA SN 1065-9129 J9 POLIT RES QUART JI Polit. Res. Q. PD DEC PY 1997 VL 50 IS 4 BP 809 EP 831 DI 10.2307/448988 PG 23 WC Political Science SC Government & Law GA V2788 UT WOS:000168702500005 ER PT J AU Emmons, WM Prager, RA AF Emmons, WM Prager, RA TI The effects of market structure and ownership on prices and service offerings in the US cable television industry SO RAND JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID DEREGULATION; COMPETITION; POWER AB This article provides empirical evidence on the effects of alternative market structures and ownership modes on prices and sen ice offerings in the cable television industry. We analyze the underlying characteristics and behavior of competing versus monopoly operators on the one hand, and privately versus nonprivately owned operators on the other. We find that competition and nonprivate ownership are associated with lower prices for basic cable television sen,ice. We also find that cable television price and quality differentials vary with certain characteristics of competing operators, and that market structure and ownership status influence changes in price and quality over time. C1 Harvard Univ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Emmons, WM (reprint author), Harvard Univ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. NR 31 TC 29 Z9 29 U1 0 U2 1 PU RAND PI LAWRENCE PA 810 EAST 10TH ST, LAWRENCE, KS 66044 USA SN 0741-6261 J9 RAND J ECON JI Rand J. Econ. PD WIN PY 1997 VL 28 IS 4 BP 732 EP 750 PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YR264 UT WOS:000071477400008 ER PT J AU Bhasin, V Cole, RA Kiely, JK AF Bhasin, V Cole, RA Kiely, JK TI Changes in REIT liquidity 1990-1994: Evidence from intra-day transactions SO REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID INFORMATION ASYMMETRY; ASK; PRICES; MARKET AB This study uses data on intra-day transactions to analyze whether real estate investment (REIT) liquidity as measured by the bid-ask spread changed from 1990 to 1994, a period during which the industry's market capitalization increased from $8.7 billion to $45 billion. REIT percentage spreads (spread as percentage of share price) narrowed significantly, primarily attributable to higher share prices rather than narrower dollar-value spreads. An empirical model is used to analyze the determinants of percentage spreads. Return variance and share price, not market capitalization are found to be the primary determinants of percentage spreads in both periods. This suggests that the liquidity of REIT securities is similar to that of non-REIT securities with similar prices and return variance. In addition, percentage spreads are wider for REITs trading on the NASDAQ. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. E Carolina Univ, Greenville, NC 27858 USA. RP Bhasin, V (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RI Cole, Rebel/C-4399-2008 OI Cole, Rebel/0000-0001-9830-662X NR 14 TC 21 Z9 21 U1 1 U2 4 PU AMER REAL ESTATE URBAN ECONOMICS ASSOC PI BLOOMINGTON PA INDIANA UNIV, SCHOOL BUSINESS, RM 428, 1309 E TENTH ST, BLOOMINGTON, IN 47405 USA SN 1080-8620 J9 REAL ESTATE ECON JI Real Estate Econ. PD WIN PY 1997 VL 25 IS 4 BP 615 EP 630 DI 10.1111/1540-6229.00730 PG 16 WC Business, Finance; Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA YL949 UT WOS:000071011600005 ER PT J AU Mattey, J ten Raa, T AF Mattey, J ten Raa, T TI Primary versus secondary production techniques in US manufacturing SO REVIEW OF INCOME AND WEALTH LA English DT Article AB In this paper we analyze the determinants of material inputs into individual production activities as a function of their outputs. We use observations on a large cross-section of U.S. manufacturing plants from the Census of Manufactures, including those that make goods primary to other industries, to study differences in production techniques. We find that in most cases material requirements do not depend on whether goods are made as primary products or as secondary products. We thus elucidate support for the commodity technology model as a useful working hypothesis. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, San Francisco, CA USA. Tilburg Univ, NL-5000 LE Tilburg, Netherlands. RP Mattey, J (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, San Francisco, CA USA. NR 13 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 1 PU INT ASSOC RES INCOME WEALTH PI NEW YORK PA NEW YORK UNIVERSITY 269 MERCER ST ROOM 700, NEW YORK, NY 10003 USA SN 0034-6586 J9 REV INCOME WEALTH JI Rev. Income Wealth PD DEC PY 1997 IS 4 BP 449 EP 464 PG 16 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YT352 UT WOS:000071593000004 ER PT J AU Park, S AF Park, S TI Effects of price competition in the credit card industry SO ECONOMICS LETTERS LA English DT Article DE credit cards; consumer rationality; imperfect competition AB Using a sample of major credit card issuers, this study examines the effects of credit card rates on card loan growth and delinquency rates between 1991 and 1994. Lower card rates failed to sufficiently increase card loans, and the delinquency rate was positively related to the card rate. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science S.A. RP Park, S (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,CAPITAL MARKETS FUNCT,33 LIBERTY ST,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 6 TC 2 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND SN 0165-1765 J9 ECON LETT JI Econ. Lett. PD NOV 28 PY 1997 VL 57 IS 1 BP 79 EP 85 DI 10.1016/S0165-1765(97)81883-6 PG 7 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YL413 UT WOS:A1997YL41300013 ER PT J AU Henderson, JR McNamara, KT AF Henderson, JR McNamara, KT TI Community attributes influencing local food processing growth in the US corn belt SO CANADIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS-REVUE CANADIENNE D AGROECONOMIE LA English DT Article ID UNITED-STATES; LOCATION DECISIONS; BUSINESS CLIMATE; START-UPS; TAXES AB This paper examines local and regional attributes associated with growth in the food processing industry. The paper uses industrial location studies to develop a model of food processing plants' growth. Ordinary least squares (OLS) models are estimated to analyze which local, regional and state attributes are associated with county level growth, measured by a change in the number of establishments. The results suggest that food processing growth is associated with factors similar to those influencing the location of footloose manufacturing plants. However, growth in food processing sectors is associated with different local attributes depending on a firm's industry type (demand-oriented supply-oriented, footloose). C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Kansas City, MO USA. Purdue Univ, Dept Agr Econ, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA. RP Henderson, JR (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Kansas City, MO USA. NR 33 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 8 PU CANADIAN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS SOCIETY PI OTTAWA PA 141 LAURIER AVE WEST, SUITE 1112, OTTAWA, ONTARIO K1P 5J3, CANADA SN 0008-3976 J9 CAN J AGR ECON JI Can. J. Agric. Econ.-Rev. Can. Agroecon. PD NOV PY 1997 VL 45 IS 3 BP 235 EP 250 DI 10.1111/j.1744-7976.1997.tb00206.x PG 16 WC Agricultural Economics & Policy; Economics SC Agriculture; Business & Economics GA YX316 UT WOS:000072028000004 ER PT J AU Huffman, GW AF Huffman, GW TI An equilibrium analysis of central bank independence and inflation SO CANADIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS-REVUE CANADIENNE D ECONOMIQUE LA English DT Article AB A dynamic equilibrium model is constructed to analyse the implications of different degrees of central bank independence. In the main model, agents are permitted to vote on the desired inflation and labour taxes to finance government Spending. Multiple perfect-foresight equilibria arise, and one of them exhibits fluctuations in output, investment, and the inflation rates as a result of permitting agents to vote. If, instead of having agents vote each period on these parameters, inflation and labour taxes in the model are set at fixed levels, these fluctuations do not arise, and a lower inflation rate can appear. C1 So Methodist Univ, Dallas, TX 75275 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, Dallas, TX USA. RP Huffman, GW (reprint author), So Methodist Univ, Dallas, TX 75275 USA. NR 16 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 1 PU UNIV TORONTO PRESS INC PI TORONTO PA JOURNALS DIVISION, 5201 DUFFERIN ST, DOWNSVIEW, TORONTO, ON M3H 5T8, CANADA SN 0008-4085 J9 CAN J ECON JI Can. J. Econ.-Rev. Can. Econ. PD NOV PY 1997 VL 30 IS 4A BP 943 EP 958 DI 10.2307/136279 PG 16 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YM389 UT WOS:000071046400012 ER PT J AU Jefferson, PN AF Jefferson, PN TI On the neutrality of inside and outside money SO ECONOMICA LA English DT Article ID LONG-RUN NEUTRALITY; ARIMA FRAMEWORK; SUPERNEUTRALITY AB The relationships between nominal inside money and real economic activity and nominal outside money and real economic activity are explored using data on checkable deposits, M2 excluding currency, the monetary base, and real income in the United States from 1900 to 1992. This is done by calculating the long-run elasticities of real output with respect to inside and outside components of the money stock. Small but significant deviations from neutrality are detected for inside money over a range of identifying assumptions. The evidence suggests, however, that the source of non-neutrality is not the one hypothesized by Gurley and Shaw (1960). C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Jefferson, PN (reprint author), Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 26 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 1 U2 7 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD OX4 1JF, OXON, ENGLAND SN 0013-0427 J9 ECONOMICA JI Economica PD NOV PY 1997 VL 64 IS 256 BP 567 EP 586 DI 10.1111/1468-0335.00100 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YM459 UT WOS:000071065600002 ER PT J AU Baillie, RT Osterberg, WP AF Baillie, RT Osterberg, WP TI Central bank intervention and risk in the forward market SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE exchange rates; central bank intervention; risk premium; GARCH ID FOREIGN-EXCHANGE MARKET; CONDITIONAL-VARIANCE; RATES; RETURN; EXPECTATIONS; PREMIUM AB A two country inter-temporal asset pricing model is developed which implies that central bank foreign exchange intervention affects the forward exchange risk premium. The model is estimated from daily foreign exchange intervention data for the US, German and Japanese central banks. Considerable empirical support is found for the theoretical model with intervention influencing the risk premium in the forward market. Purchases of dollars by the Federal Reserve Bank are found to be associated with excess $ denominated returns. There is evidence that intervention has increased rather than reduced exchange rate volatility. C1 FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44114. RP Baillie, RT (reprint author), MICHIGAN STATE UNIV,DEPT ECON,E LANSING,MI 48824, USA. NR 30 TC 34 Z9 35 U1 1 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD NOV PY 1997 VL 43 IS 3-4 BP 483 EP 497 DI 10.1016/S0022-1996(97)00015-9 PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YK240 UT WOS:A1997YK24000011 ER PT J AU Morton, JE AF Morton, JE TI Estimating equilibrium exchange rates - Williamson,J SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Book Review RP Morton, JE (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV INT FINANCE,WASHINGTON,DC 20580, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD NOV PY 1997 VL 43 IS 3-4 BP 525 EP 529 PG 5 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YK240 UT WOS:A1997YK24000014 ER PT J AU Caplin, A Freeman, C Tracy, J AF Caplin, A Freeman, C Tracy, J TI Collateral damage: Refinancing constraints and regional recessions SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID NET WORTH AB In the current structure of the U.S. residential mortgage market, a decrease in property values may make it very difficult for homeowners to refinance their mortgages to take advantage of declining interest rates. In this paper, we show that this form of collateral constraint has greatly reduced refinancing in states with depressed property markets. We outline the interaction between regional recessions and refinancing constraints. C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY. RP Caplin, A (reprint author), NYU,550 1ST AVE,NEW YORK,NY 10003, USA. NR 24 TC 25 Z9 25 U1 0 U2 2 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1997 VL 29 IS 4 BP 496 EP 516 DI 10.2307/2953710 PN 1 PG 21 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA YK247 UT WOS:A1997YK24700005 ER PT J AU Altig, DE AF Altig, DE TI Dynamic effects of monetary policy - A conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland November 6-8, 1996 - Introduction SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material RP Altig, DE (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44114, USA. NR 10 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1997 VL 29 IS 4 BP 561 EP 567 DI 10.2307/2953650 PN 2 PG 7 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA YK248 UT WOS:A1997YK24800002 ER PT J AU Chari, VV AF Chari, VV TI Inflation forecasts and monetary policy - Comment SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. RP Chari, VV (reprint author), UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455, USA. NR 4 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1997 VL 29 IS 4 BP 685 EP 686 DI 10.2307/2953657 PN 2 PG 2 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA YK248 UT WOS:A1997YK24800009 ER PT J AU Mishkin, FS AF Mishkin, FS TI The optimum quantity of money - Comment SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material ID GROWTH C1 NATL BUR ECON RES, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02138 USA. COLUMBIA UNIV, GRAD SCH BUSINESS, NEW YORK, NY 10027 USA. RP Mishkin, FS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK, NEW YORK, NY 10045 USA. NR 14 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI MALDEN PA COMMERCE PLACE, 350 MAIN ST, MALDEN 02148, MA USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1997 VL 29 IS 4 BP 716 EP 719 DI 10.2307/2953659 PN 2 PG 4 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA YK248 UT WOS:A1997YK24800011 ER PT J AU Fisher, JDM AF Fisher, JDM TI The optimum quantity of money - Comment SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material ID MONETARY-POLICY; ECONOMY C1 UNIV WESTERN ONTARIO,LONDON,ON N6A 3K7,CANADA. RP Fisher, JDM (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,RES DEPT,CHICAGO,IL 60604, USA. NR 5 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1997 VL 29 IS 4 BP 719 EP 724 DI 10.2307/2953660 PN 2 PG 6 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA YK248 UT WOS:A1997YK24800012 ER PT J AU Fuerst, TS AF Fuerst, TS TI On the fit of a neoclassical monetary model in high inflation: Israel 1972-1990 - Comment SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material C1 FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44114. RP Fuerst, TS (reprint author), BOWLING GREEN STATE UNIV,BOWLING GREEN,OH 43403, USA. NR 7 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1997 VL 29 IS 4 BP 755 EP 758 DI 10.2307/2953663 PN 2 PG 4 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA YK248 UT WOS:A1997YK24800015 ER PT J AU Ohanian, LE Stockman, AC AF Ohanian, LE Stockman, AC TI Short-run independence of monetary policy under pegged exchange rates and effects of money on exchange rates and interest rates SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID MONOPOLISTIC COMPETITION; RATE DYNAMICS; PRICES; TRANSMISSION; EXPECTATIONS; ADJUSTMENT AB This paper examines the effects of money supply changes on exchange rates. interest rates, and production in an optimizing two-country model in which some sectors of the economy have predetermined nominal prices in the short run and other sectors have flexible prices. Money supply shocks have liquidity effects both within and across countries and induce a cross-country real interest differential. The model predicts that liquidity effects are highly nonlinear and are not likely to be captured well empirically by linear models. particularly those involving only a single country. A striking implication of the model is that countries have a significant degree of short-run independence of monetary policy even under pegged exchange rates. C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. UNIV ROCHESTER,ROCHESTER,NY 14627. RP Ohanian, LE (reprint author), UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455, USA. NR 30 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 1 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1997 VL 29 IS 4 BP 783 EP 806 DI 10.2307/2953667 PN 2 PG 24 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA YK248 UT WOS:A1997YK24800019 ER PT J AU Jordan, JL AF Jordan, JL TI Dynamic effects of monetary policy - A conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland November 6-8, 1996 - Preface SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material RP Jordan, JL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44114, USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1997 VL 29 IS 4 BP R3 EP R4 PN 2 PG 2 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA YK248 UT WOS:A1997YK24800001 ER PT J AU Israilevich, PR Hewings, GJD Sonis, M Schindler, GR AF Israilevich, PR Hewings, GJD Sonis, M Schindler, GR TI Forecasting structural change with a regional econometric input-output model SO JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE LA English DT Article ID MULTIPLIERS AB The sophistication of regional economic models has been demonstrated in numerous ways, most recently in the form of linking several modeling systems or in the expansion in the number of equations that can be manipulated successfully to produce impact analyses or forecasts. In this paper, an alternative perspective is employed. What do regional macro-level forecasts indicate about the process of structural change? A new methodology is illustrated that enables analysts to make forecasts of detailed structural change in the interindustry relations in an economy. Using a regional econometric input-output model developed for the Chicago metropolitan region, derived input-output tables are extracted for the period 1975-2016. These tables are then analyzed to determine the forecasted direction of structural changes for the region. The innovation illustrated here is based on a model that exploits the general equilibrium spirit of computable general equilibrium models through the adjustment of input coefficients to clear markets. C1 UNIV ILLINOIS,REG ECON APPLICAT LAB,URBANA,IL 61801. BAR ILAN UNIV,RAMAT GAN,ISRAEL. RP Israilevich, PR (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,REG ECON APPLICAT LAB,230 S LA SALLE,CHICAGO,IL 60604, USA. RI Hewings, Geoffrey/B-2058-2014 NR 36 TC 23 Z9 29 U1 1 U2 5 PU BLACKWELL PUBLISHERS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 350 MAIN STREET, STE 6, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02148-5023 SN 0022-4146 J9 J REGIONAL SCI JI J. Reg. Sci. PD NOV PY 1997 VL 37 IS 4 BP 565 EP 590 DI 10.1111/0022-4146.00070 PG 26 WC Economics; Environmental Studies; Planning & Development SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Public Administration GA YG060 UT WOS:A1997YG06000002 ER PT J AU Triest, RK AF Triest, RK TI Social security reform: An overview SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Editorial Material AB Recent decades have seen a trend toward longer life expectancy and reduced birth rates across the globe. This is good news - the pressures created by rapid population growth are being relaxed, and people are more likely to live to old age - but it creates problems for programs such as Social Security, which are designed to provide for the consumption needs of the elderly. Ln the United States, the retirement of the baby boom generation will result in a decrease in the number of workers per Social Security beneficiary from 3.3 now to 2.2 in the year 2030. The decrease in the ratio of workers to beneficiaries will necessitate changes in our Social Security program. The fiscal problems faced by Social Security are just one component of the more general problem faced by society: How do we provide for the consumption needs of an increasingly aged population? Policy decisions made in the next few years will have a large impact on the economic well-being of both future retirees and workers. Social Security reform may cause changes in national saving, labor markets, and financial markets that affect all members of society. Because of the potential importance of these changes to the economy and to future living standards, the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston devoted its forty-first economic conference, convened in June 1996, to Social Security Reform: Links to Saving, Investment, and Growth. This article reviews the presentations at the conference and the themes that developed from the discussions. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Triest, RK (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 0 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD NOV-DEC PY 1997 BP 3 EP + PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YP055 UT WOS:000071236700001 ER PT J AU Simons, K AF Simons, K TI Model error SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Modern finance would not have been possible without models. Increasingly complex quantitative models drive financial innovation and the growth of derivatives markets. Models are necessary to value financial instruments and to measure the risks of individual positions and portfolios. Yet when used inappropriately, the models themselves can become an important source of risk. Recently, several well-publicized instances occurred of institutions suffering significant losses attributed to model error. This has sharpened the interest in model risk among financial institutions and their regulators. This article describes various models and discusses model errors characteristic of two types - valuation models for individual securities, and models of market risk. It also reviews a number of practical issues related to model development and describes the approach taken by bank regulators to model risk. The author points out that a trade-off almost always exists between the realism and the analytical tractability of a model. Striking the right balance in the face of this trade-off, she writes, and maintaining it through changing market conditions for different financial instruments, is more art than science and requires considerable and judgment. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Simons, K (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 16 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 3 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD NOV-DEC PY 1997 BP 17 EP + PG 13 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YP055 UT WOS:000071236700002 ER PT J AU Browne, LE Hellerstein, R AF Browne, LE Hellerstein, R TI Are we investing too little? SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID BUSINESS INVESTMENT; POLICY; DEPRECIATION AB One of the most disappointing features of U.S. economic performance over the past 20 years has been the slowing of growth in productivity and, as a result, in real incomes. For many, the explanation can be found in the low U.S. saving rate. Since the mid 1980s, national saving has averaged just Over 15 percent of GDP, compared to more than 20 percent during the 1960s. Thus, one plausible explanation for slow productivity growth, at least in recent years, could be that our low saving rate is constraining investment and thereby depriving the nation of both the tools and the technologies that would leverage human skills. This article considers whether the decline in the U.S. saving rate necessarily means that investment spending is "too low." The authors show that private domestic investment has fallen less than one might infer from the decline in saving, and business use of credit markets in the 1990s has remained unusually low even as the cost of capital has fallen. They highlight the growing importance of Investment in business equipment, especially computers, during the 1980s and 1990s, and they suggest that this shift in the composition of investment coupled with the rapid decline in computer prices, may account for some Of the inconsistencies in saving and Investment patterns. In particular, investment spending may be limited by the ability of businesses to absorb the new information technology. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Browne, LE (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 31 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD NOV-DEC PY 1997 BP 29 EP + PG 23 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YP055 UT WOS:000071236700003 ER PT J AU Kimball, RC AF Kimball, RC TI Specialization, risk, and capital in banking SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Diversification is certainly the simplest and perhaps the oldest approach to managing Me trade-off between portfolio risk and return. Because diversification tends to reduce risk without a proportional reduction in returns, an overwhelming majority of commercial banks have diversified portfolios. Larger banks usually are organized into multiple specialized lines of business; smaller banks generally hold a higher proportion of marketable securities whose returns are not tied to a particular geographic market. A much smaller number of banks have chosen to ignore the benefits of diversification and focus on a particular asset such as credit cards, residential or commercial real estate, corporate trust services, or small business lending. This article investigates specialization in banking and its effects on risk and return. The author compares a group of banks specializing in small business micro-loans (loans under $100,000) with a matched set of diversified peers. The number of specialized banks is still small, but they are expected ti,become more prevalent, and the number of specialized nonbanks is large including commercial and consumer finance companies, mortgage banks, leasing companies, many thrift institutions, and some investment banks and insurance companies. The author discusses the issues that specialization creates for regulators, especially in the field of capital requirements, and the need to revise the current approach to regulatory risk-based capital to better distinguish between specialized and diversified banks. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. Babson Coll, FW Olin Grad Sch Business, Babson Pk, MA 02157 USA. RP Kimball, RC (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 19 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 1 U2 4 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD NOV-DEC PY 1997 BP 51 EP + PG 24 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YP055 UT WOS:000071236700004 ER PT J AU Fuhrer, JC Madigan, BF AF Fuhrer, JC Madigan, BF TI Monetary policy when interest rates are bounded at zero SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID INFLATION AB This paper assesses the importance of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates for the interest-rate channel of monetary policy. We simulate several interest-rate setting policy rules with either high or low inflation targets. We determine the extent to which the zero bound prevents real rates from falling, thus cushioning aggregate output in response to negative spending shocks. For small temporary and large permanent shocks, the output path with zero inflation lies modestly below that for higher inflation. For large shocks persisting a few quarters, differences in output paths across high-and low-inflation scenarios can be larger. C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP Fuhrer, JC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. RI Fuhrer, Jeff/F-8852-2013 NR 16 TC 41 Z9 41 U1 0 U2 2 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD NOV PY 1997 VL 79 IS 4 BP 573 EP 585 DI 10.1162/003465397557150 PG 13 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA YH837 UT WOS:A1997YH83700005 ER PT J AU Kiley, MT AF Kiley, MT TI Efficiency wages, nominal rigidities and the cyclical behavior of real wages and marginal cost SO ECONOMICS LETTERS LA English DT Article DE efficiency wages; nominal price rigidity ID WORKER DISCIPLINE DEVICE; BUSINESS-CYCLE; UNEMPLOYMENT; DYNAMICS AB I present a model in which efficiency wages generate acyclical real wages, but do not lower the sensitivity of marginal cost to output or increase price stickiness. Consideration of previous models suggests that efficiency wages are a poor real rigidity. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science S.A. RP Kiley, MT (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,DIV RES & STAT,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. RI Kiley, Michael/H-1132-2012; OI Kiley, Michael/0000-0003-0427-0131 NR 20 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND SN 0165-1765 J9 ECON LETT JI Econ. Lett. PD OCT 17 PY 1997 VL 56 IS 2 BP 215 EP 221 DI 10.1016/S0165-1765(97)81903-9 PG 7 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YK833 UT WOS:A1997YK83300014 ER PT J AU Dolmas, J Huffman, GW AF Dolmas, J Huffman, GW TI The political economy of endogenous taxation and redistribution SO ECONOMICS LETTERS LA English DT Article DE voting; political economy; redistributive taxation AB This paper examines a simple dynamic model in which agents vote over capital income taxation and redistributive transfers. We show that in equilibrium the typical agent's preferences over the tax rate are single-peaked and derive a closed-form solution for the majority-rule tax rate. We also show that high levels of initial wealth inequality can place the economy on the 'wrong side of the Laffer curve'. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science S.A. C1 FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,DALLAS,TX. RP Dolmas, J (reprint author), SO METHODIST UNIV,DEPT ECON,DALLAS,TX 75275, USA. NR 2 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 1 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND SN 0165-1765 J9 ECON LETT JI Econ. Lett. PD OCT 17 PY 1997 VL 56 IS 2 BP 223 EP 227 DI 10.1016/S0165-1765(97)81904-0 PG 5 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YK833 UT WOS:A1997YK83300015 ER PT J AU Freund, C Wallich, C AF Freund, C Wallich, C TI Public-sector price reforms in transition economies: Who gains? Who loses? The case of household energy prices in Poland SO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND CULTURAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 WORLD BANK,WASHINGTON,DC 20433. RP Freund, C (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC, USA. NR 11 TC 12 Z9 12 U1 0 U2 1 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0013-0079 J9 ECON DEV CULT CHANGE JI Econ. Dev. Cult. Change PD OCT PY 1997 VL 46 IS 1 BP 35 EP 59 DI 10.1086/452320 PG 25 WC Area Studies; Economics; Planning & Development SC Area Studies; Business & Economics; Public Administration GA YD187 UT WOS:A1997YD18700002 ER PT J AU Levin, A Raut, LK AF Levin, A Raut, LK TI Complementarities between exports and human capital in economic growth: Evidence from the semi-industrialized countries SO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND CULTURAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID POLICY C1 UNIV HAWAII MANOA,HONOLULU,HI 96822. RP Levin, A (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC, USA. NR 28 TC 31 Z9 31 U1 0 U2 3 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0013-0079 J9 ECON DEV CULT CHANGE JI Econ. Dev. Cult. Change PD OCT PY 1997 VL 46 IS 1 BP 155 EP 174 DI 10.1086/452325 PG 20 WC Area Studies; Economics; Planning & Development SC Area Studies; Business & Economics; Public Administration GA YD187 UT WOS:A1997YD18700007 ER PT J AU Bomfim, AN AF Bomfim, AN TI The equilibrium fed funds rate and the indicator properties of term-structure spreads SO ECONOMIC INQUIRY LA English DT Article AB This paper introduces a model-based measure of the equilibrium federal funds rate and examines the indicator properties of the spread between observed and equilibrium rates. The results are compared to those of existing studies, which implicitly use long-term interest rates to proxy the equilibrium funds rate. Granger-causality tests suggest that different measures of the term-structure spread are dominated by the funds-rate spread as a forecaster of a wide range of macroeconomic variables. These results are supported by variance-decomposition analysis. The paper also estimates simple VARs to discuss how the policy stance responds to macroeconomic shocks. RP Bomfim, AN (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD, DIV RES & STAT, WASHINGTON, DC USA. NR 16 TC 4 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 2 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI MALDEN PA COMMERCE PLACE, 350 MAIN ST, MALDEN 02148, MA USA SN 0095-2583 J9 ECON INQ JI Econ. Inq. PD OCT PY 1997 VL 35 IS 4 BP 830 EP 846 PG 17 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YC443 UT WOS:A1997YC44300010 ER PT J AU Cantor, R Packer, F AF Cantor, R Packer, F TI Differences of opinion and selection bias in the credit rating industry SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE credit ratings; bond ratings; split ratings; selection bias; credit risk; prudential regulation ID INFORMATION AB Many regulations use private sector credit ratings to determine investment prohibitions and capital requirements for institutional portfolio investments. These regulations implicitly assume that different agencies have equivalent rating scales, despite the fact that some agencies assign systematically higher ratings than others. We assess the appropriateness of these regulatory practices by testing whether observed rating differences reflect different rating scales or simply result from sample selection bias. Our analysis reveals only limited evidence of selection bias. We also ask what types of firms are most likely to seek ratings from the agencies with higher rating scales. Our analysis uncovers no evidence that firms seek ratings from these agencies to clear specific regulatory hurdles or to reduce ex ante uncertainty about default risk. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045. NR 17 TC 63 Z9 65 U1 2 U2 12 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD OCT PY 1997 VL 21 IS 10 BP 1395 EP 1417 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(97)00024-1 PG 23 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA YK225 UT WOS:A1997YK22500005 ER PT J AU Berger, AN Cummins, JD Weiss, MA AF Berger, AN Cummins, JD Weiss, MA TI The coexistence of multiple distribution systems for financial services: The case of property-liability insurance SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS LA English DT Article ID LIFE-INSURANCE; EFFICIENCY; INDUSTRY; SCALE; COST; ECONOMIES; BANKING; MARKETS; MODEL; FIRM AB Property-liability insurance is distributed through a direct-writer system, where agents represent one insurer, and an Independent-agency system, where agents represent several insurers. Independent-agency insurers have higher costs than direct writers. The market-imperfections hypothesis attributes the coexistence of the two types of insurers to impediments to competition, while the product-quality hypothesis holds that independent-agency insurers provide higher-quality services. We measure cost efficiency and profit efficiency for property liability insurers and find strong support for the product-quality hypothesis, implying that independent-agency insurers produce higher-quality outputs and are compensated by higher revenues. C1 UNIV PENN,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. TEMPLE UNIV,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19122. RP Berger, AN (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 36 TC 61 Z9 62 U1 0 U2 7 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0021-9398 J9 J BUS JI J. Bus. PD OCT PY 1997 VL 70 IS 4 BP 515 EP 546 DI 10.1086/209730 PG 32 WC Business SC Business & Economics GA YD210 UT WOS:A1997YD21000003 ER PT J AU Kennickell, AB StarrMcCluer, M AF Kennickell, AB StarrMcCluer, M TI Retrospective reporting of household wealth: Evidences from the 1983-1989 Survey of Consumer Finances SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS LA English DT Article DE consumer survey; panel data; wealth measurement AB One way to obtain panel-like information on household wealth is to ask households about changes in their asset holdings. Yet the reliability of retrospective data is unclear, considering the potential for recall error. This article examines the reliability of retrospective reporting, using data from the 1983-1989 Survey of Consumer Finances. We find substantial inconsistencies between reported ?ed net investments in assets with measured changes in holdings. Inconsistencies are less severe for salient transactions like home sales and more severe for aggregated items like financial assets. RP Kennickell, AB (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV RES & STAT,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 22 TC 14 Z9 14 U1 0 U2 3 PU AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC PI ALEXANDRIA PA 1429 DUKE ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 SN 0735-0015 J9 J BUS ECON STAT JI J. Bus. Econ. Stat. PD OCT PY 1997 VL 15 IS 4 BP 452 EP 463 DI 10.2307/1392491 PG 12 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Mathematics GA XX148 UT WOS:A1997XX14800007 ER EF